The Advanced ScoutWe got some work to do. This is the Advanced Scout with Tom Opperman and Mac Williamson.
The Steelers lost to the Browns on Thursday Night Football. Their record now stands at eight and three. They now travel to Cincinnati to take on the four and seven Cincinnati Bengals, who were idle last week. And Matt, I want to start this podcast out as we preview the Bengals today, talking to you about you've been in football for a long time. Have you ever seen a team that's more puzzling than the Cincinnati team with how great their quarterback has been playing and how poorly their record is.
Yeah, Dale and I have been calling them, you know, even Steven, you know, because they're is as good as everything they do on offense, they're almost equally bad on defense, you know, like all their numbers are almost direct corollary opposites and making matters worse though for them. Why they're not even Stephen for the year is they're one six in close games and they've let things get away from them, specially defensively. And as seems to be always the case with this team under this head coach, they start so slow every year. They don't play any of their guys in the preseason. It wasn't the case this year, but Burrows always coming off of colon some sort of appedect. I mean much different obviously, but like this he's playing at m VP level. Chase is in line to be the triple Crown winner like Saper Couple was with the receptions, yards, touchdowns. Higgins is great, Chase Brown's playing well. But all those things being said, they they produce zero point nine more yards per game than they allowed. Basically one more yard per game they could produce than their their enemies. If you're in there that good on that offense, it's terrible.
Yeah, And I mean their point differential only being plus one is another highlight of how terrible they are defensively, because the offense is so prolific, yet they're only plus one in their point differential. On the season, the four teams that the Bengals have wins against are combined ten and thirty four, so they don't really have a win against any Marque opponent. And Matt you talked about how they always start slow and kind of come on strong in the middle of a season under Zach Taylor, and since Joe Burrow has taken over as the quarterback. Well, this year they started slow and they haven't been able to get that marquee win in the middle of the season that really kind of boosted themselves towards the playoff hunt. Again, like in years past, they've gone to San Francisco and gotten a big upset win to kind of boost them forward. This year swept by Baltimore in two opportunities with them, they lose the Philadelphia game and an opportunity that could have been that big marquee win. You're playing with fire when you start as slow as they did and try to come on hot, and this year it's just for whatever reason, they just can't get that big win to get them rolling.
And even just the body language of Chase and Burrow like what more do you want me to do? You know, I'm Superman in Green Lantern here, and we still can't beat these teams And they have four wins. The four teams they've beaten are ten and thirty one.
It's terrible.
That's bad.
Yeah, but they're really dangerous, right and we'll illustrate that as we work our way through this podcast. But let's start with the series history between these teams. The series began in nineteen seventy and Pittsburgh leads this series all times seventy to thirty nine. Two of those games occurred in the postseason in twenty six and in twenty sixteen, with the Steelers winning both of those contests. The Steelers swept Cincinnati last see super quick.
Yeah, Like, how sad is it that these teams have been playing since nineteen seventy and the Steelers have been the postseason that much and they've only met up twice in the postseason. This kind of dawned on me, like, come on, Cincy, Yeah, I.
Mean, Steelers and Ravens have met like what three or four times? The Ravens have only been around since the late nineties. Since he's got yeah carrying their weight a little bit here. But as I was saying, they swept since he last year. Pittsburgh was recently on an eleven game winning streak between December of twenty fifteen to November of twenty twenty. Cincinnati has won just thirteen of the fifty games between these divisional rivals that have been played in the two thousands. Mike Tomlin is twenty six and eleven versus Cincinnati, including that playoff win in the twenty sixteen season. I will say this though, Matt, this is in a Lamar Jackson we own him situation. When it comes to Joe Burrow. In games that Burrow has played against the Steelers, he's got a winning record. He's three and two, and one of those losses was his rookie season where the team was kind of crap and he was just getting his feet wet, and then he eventually got injured, So you know, you throw that one out. He's three and one against the Steelers. When he starts, he's pretty successful.
He's great. I mean, it's a different era. I mean, he has no one feels bad for him, but he has consistently had to overcome some of his surroundings. I mean they really locked into being the team that was picking first overall the year that he came out, almost like a Sid Crosby type of situation, you know what I mean.
Yeah, he's a complete culture changer for the franchise. And the body language thing that you brought up is so true this year with him and Jamar Chase, you can see that they're just defeated. These guys have won at every stop of their career. They've been winning since they got to Cincinnati, and for some reason this year it's just not working out. We'll get to that offense in a second, because that's part the side of the ball that you have to worry about. That's the prolific side of the ball for the Cincinnati Bengals. On the defensive side, I don't want to oversimplify things on how to attack this team because I feel like we say this a lot with the opponents that the Steelers have, and they don't always follow through with it. But you should just be able to run the hell out of the ball on this team. And I know we said that last week against Cleveland, but it holds true again this week. They don't bring much as far as pass rush is concerned, and you can throw on them. But it can be a really easy for you offensively. You can stay on schedule really easily against this team. If you can kind of get the running game going again, that'd be a.
Great place to start. But again, I like how you said that, Like we've said this about a lot of opponents, you should be able to have your way with out blah blah blah blah blah, and it does always go that way. It's on how the league works, clearly. You know the like they're terrible in the red zone. Well, what do you think they're practicing right now? You know, I mean red zone defense? You know what I mean. But there really aren't many things to avoid in terms of game planning for this one. You know, like when the coaches get together Monday and they put their game plan together, I'm not sure what you avoid.
Yeah, Like they made a big deal about Jesse Bates for example in the Falcons week, We're gonna avoid the middle of the field because Jesse Bates can can wreck the game. There's not a player like that other than Trey Hendrickson probably on this defense. That's the only guy that you have to worry about. He's got eleven and a half sacks in eleven games this year. He leads the league in sacks right now, but the right but the next highest sacked total bio Bengals defender is from Sam Hubbard and he has two. No one else on this defense is more than one. So they're not getting any pressure outside of Hendrickson.
And to take that even a step further, just in terms of sacks per dropback, only the Falcons who haven't had a pass rush in a decade. And the Panthers, who I bet half our listeners couldn't even tell you who their defensive line is anymore or worse. Yes, Andrew the sack leader on your team, you know what I mean.
Yeah, that's four point five percent of opposing dropbacks that Cincinnati records a sack on. Yeah, it's remarkable how great Hendrickson is in that area, yet how bad the team is there. They have just nineteen sacks all year long. So maybe this won't be a game that we've seen Russell Wilson in the offensive line have the past couple of weeks, Matt, where they get a lot of pressure on you, and Russell Wilson's getting beat up a lot. There's not that much time to pass the ball. Shouldn't be the case in this game against Cincinnati, unless you know, it does that thing where we predict one thing and everything points to it being right that way, and for whatever reason, Trey Hendrickson and Sam Huver can bind for ten sacks total in the game. But it looks to me on paper that pass protection should hold up decently well against this team.
Yeah, I meant to say it's the big of this show. But I want to stress how the Bengals have been built. So Burrow and Chase fell in their lap and they they're awesome, and Higgins is really good, and to their credit, they built a pretty nice defense through free agency. They went out and got DJ Reeder, Hendrickson's a poster child for that, Mike Hilton, a lot of guys they got out from got from outside the organization. They spent money on defense because their offense was young and cheap and ultra talented. Wisely, they realized, we're gonna have to pay Burrow, We're gonna have to pay Chase. So we're drafting defense like crazy the last three years or so. But they haven't hit on anybody, you know, So so all these high picks are don't really mean much staying off for them, right right.
Here's a stat that I love that you brought to the table, Matt, that I think is going to be really telling in this game. It's kind of a worst on worst stat. It's about turning sets of downs into new sets of downs. The Steelers turn a set of down into a new set of down or a touchdown at a sixty eight percent rate only six offenses in the league are worse. However, the Bengals defense allows that to happen at a seventy five percent clip. Only the Jags and the Panthers are worse. So the Steelers are having a lot of trouble sustaining drives throughout football games. That's no secret. The Steelers are having a lot of trouble getting into the end zone. They went seven straight quarters before that fourth quarter last game before finally getting into the end zone against the Browns, So there's no secret that they've struggled in this area. This is a good team now to have to go up against to kind of correct yourself when it comes to those moving the chains, getting in the end zone, sustaining drives.
Yes, and I'm gonna take it a step further. You already planned on and highlighted this part too. But everyone, all the big talk over the last week is Steeler red zone is so terrible they should put fields in blah blah blah blah. Whatever you feel about that. The fact is only the Giants and Cowboys have are worse in the red zone this year than the Steelers. Right, Okay, well, only Dallas is worse than the Bengals who allow a seventy point five conversion rate in the red zone and that is so terrible, But over the last three weeks it's an eighty five point seven. That's shocking.
And it's almost like one hundred percent of the time you're in the red zone, you're scoring on them. That's that's that doesn't just like you're letting them. Yes, I'm sure you had to go back and check your math on that like a thousand times. But they cannot be eighty five percent of the time.
There's no way over three games, right, And I think the Raiders are one of those team. I mean like they already. I mean the Ravens were won, the Chargers are won, and the Raiders were won, So one good team.
You know, you had noted too that the tight ends can produce big on the Cincinnati defense. And it's funny. We've actually seen Firemouth have some of his biggest games of his career against Cincinnati teams.
Good point, he went crazy in the best game was.
Nuts last year.
Yeah that city, yep.
But that's the thing. You can attack on them, right, Like, it's not something that's changed drastically this year where they're all of a sudden better at stopping tight ends.
Like, I'm in the process of digging up those numbers, but I can assure you, like, just from a fantasy perspective, when you put your tight end in the lineup, what's the opponent against tight ends? Well, I think they're like thirty two, you know what I mean.
And Wilson has been using the tight ends more. I think people are kind of ignoring that and still saying, hey, we need more tight ends, more tight end usage. Well, there's fifteen targets and fourteen targets a piece. Washington's got fifteen and Firemuth's got fourteen. Since Wilson has been put in the position, there is more usage of the tight end happening. It's it's just not focused towards one of them. They're kind of split in the duty.
I just said, because Washington's come on, my new favorite player on the team. I mean, like, I think right too, they've realized, yeah, right, Like this guy is a unique specimen. Why aren't we using him all the time? You know? So I think that that's a big part of it. Also, I'm interested in you go back to the red zone real quick. If you put out a back Pickens, Williams, Washington, Friar moves. You gotta be able to find, yeah, a small defender to post up, you know what I mean? Or go up and get it. And oh, by the way, Pickens has more end zone targets than any wide receiver in the league.
I mentioned that you're gonna be able to run the ball against this team where you hope you'll be able to run the ball. Cincinnati gives up one hundred and twenty nine point eight yards on the ground per game. That's twenty first in the league. What do you make of the Steelers rushing offense though recently matt because they've gone over one hundred yards the past three weeks since the bye week, But when you look at some of the numbers and yards per carry, it tells a different story. Nausey in particular, has just one hundred and fifty seven rushing yards in three games since the bye. It's averaging two point nine yards per carry during that stretch. And while the Steelers are averaging on the year one hundred and thirty five point two rushing yards per game, which is eighth best, three point nine yards per carry is only better than the Raiders and the Cowboys, So they do it by a lot of volume. They get up to that one hundred and thirty five mark. But in recent weeks, you know, you're seeing three point three yards per carry against the Browns, three point six against the Ravens. Something's just not really clicking in that running game. And this is another opponent where I'm kind of looking at it. I'm licking my chops, like you should be able to go for four five yards per carry against them.
I'm not just gonna blame nausey because he doesn't deserve that.
He's in the back He's been getting hit in the backfield a lot these past couple of.
Weeks a lot. But I also think he looks more sluggish, like the rigors of the season are starting to wear on him. Because I thought he looked as explosive as he ever has right before that last three games. It's kind of the opposite. And maybe there's injury. I don't know about whatever, but I think Warren looks better than ever. And that's the thing though. To me, the biggest problem with the offense is a running game isn't consistent enough. You know, we can talk about middlefield, passing, red zone. Who's the number two receiver. But if you ran the ball with a little more consistency down after down, a lot of those problems would go away. Because I think you just mentioned this, but they're seventh most in the league of ten or more yard runs, you know, Like, so they break off some big ones, but you still only average three point nine.
Like that doesn't up, No, it does not. You mentioned Warren of late. He has a streak of five games in a row with fifty five plus scrimmage yards, so he has definitely come on strong where Nause has faded a little bit. But you're right, there isn't just a consistency about the running game. It's it's you get these big fifteen yard angry runs from Nause, and then it's a couple of like two yard nothing runs in a row, and then it's back to like a ten yard Warren run, and then it's like five in a row where they struggle to even get back to the line of scrimmage. Just a solid like four or five yards per carry would go a long way in how Arthur Smith in this offense is supposed to operate exactly.
I don't have a lot more to add to it, but that that should really be job number one. I think of this offense in this long break is what's our bread and Mike Pursuer and I do a show every Thursday with Merrill Hodge and obviously Merrill it's big on the run game shocker, you know, but it's a chuck nole thing. And he said, when the offense is struggling, what we would always do is pick our three, our two or three bread and butter runs. What are the plays we're best at and everyone's most comfortable with. And let's just start over like it's kindergarten and start running those, you know, and get back to being consistent with those. Then go from there.
Let's take a look at the Cincinnati offense. This is the side of the ball that you got to worry about. They produce five point seven yards per play on the season. They throw the ball sixty three point five percent of their offensive snaps. That's the sixth highest percentage in the league. They're throwing it at sixty seven point nine percent over their past three games. They're gonna throw it even more than that. I think in this game against the Steelers, don't.
You Yeah, I do.
I don't think the only thing that's pass protection, right, that's the only thing that you'd worry about.
Of course, if Burrow's getting killed. We're recording this on Tuesday night as usual. I don't know what Orlando Brown's status is. I'm not exactly sure what Highsmith's status is. But Mims is a really good prospect, and I use that word prospect on purpose.
Yeah, first round pick.
They have to leave him alone on Yeah, really really talented, I mean, crazy body. I mean, he's got a bright future. But if the left tackle situation is so bad that you have to leave him alone on what? But I thought the same thing last week. That's what I I mean, I made it. We kind of do this one we could go, I said, I think, Yeah, it's.
The same thing with the running game, right, when the defense is weak and we should run all over them and it never happens. It's like when there's tackles are weak and it looks like, you know, chopped liver for what it. It doesn't add up that way sometimes.
Right, And so the pass rush could certainly get them out of throws rows roads Row throw if it's a close game, but they throws rows, rows, grow throw, that's what they do.
Yeah, and honestly, that pass rush has been underwhelming I think for the Steelers in the past couple I mean, I think one of the biggest problems defensively against the Browns Matt was There's just was not enough pressure on Jameis Winston throughout that game. He had way too much time back there. It was way too comfortable of a game for a quarterback that you just throw in a little bit of uncomfortability, he's going to make a mistake. I mean, look at the end of the game, he turned the ball over twice in a matter of like three minutes because you started finally getting some pressure on him.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. And I think on this show last week, I predicted the Steelers are gonna get twelve sacks in Ohio these next two weeks. Wow, they's got a lot of work to do to get them.
So the passing yards per game for Cincinnati is at two hundred and sixty two point seven. That is the highest in the NFL, and Cincinnati is being blitzed on twenty one percent of its dropbacks. Only Miammi and Dallasy a lower percentage of blitz Is that just because Burrow's too good to blitz if you send too many guys towards him, he's going to burn you every time.
Yeah, he's kind of turned into a microprocessor there and knows where everything's coming and gets it out and you can get pressure on them without blitz you know they're there. O line is not so great.
Is he the best quarterback in the NFL this year? Yes, I agree with you.
That's a bold statement, but yes, but I agree. I mean, if I'm starting a team, it's my homes that's off the conversation. But I think it's between Alan Lamar and Burrow is who's having the best year. And I also think they're the three of the four best as well. I think Burrow's having the best year and he kind of started slow.
His numbers to this point are truly remarkable. And I saw somebody compile this where he has played eleven games or they're through eleven weeks or whatever it was, and they put what Burrow has put up, and then they said that there's only been like four other quarterbacks a couple of them did it more than once, that have these numbers passing yards, touchdowns, lack of interceptions to this point in a season. And they attached the finishing record for those teams and Matt they were all like tom Brady's sixteen and oh Patriots teams, tom Brady's fourteen and two, Aaron Rodgers is fourteen and two with the Packers. Mahomes went fourteen to two once. Doing this with the Chiefs, Like, not only are you a good football team, if you're playing as well as Burrow is, you're the best team in the NFL almost every time. It's truly an anomaly that they're struggling this much and he's playing that great.
So back to this team being even steven Okay, so let's say that they do have the best quarterback play thus far of the year. Really really strong argument for that. Well, all the all the quarterbacks against the Bengals are like fifth best, and that's like Minshew in Winston, you know, like theyre so they elevate the quarterbacks they play so much that it nullifies the greatness of Burrow, which has to be remarkably frustrated.
Now around Burrow, we obviously know the receivers will get to them. In a second. Chase Brown you mentioned earlier, is not having that terrible of a year despite the fact that they don't really use the run as much as you know they maybe have in the past with Joe Mixon.
Yeah, and he's come on heavy the last couple of weeks too. He's really starting to put up numbers. He's explosive, he's good in the passing game. He's starting to get his legs under him really at the NFL level, you know. I mean, he's the full time guy now. Sometimes other backs don't even see the field really over the course of the game. So I'm not saying he's a star, but he's going to be a thorn in the Steelers side for a while. He's a good player.
Fourteen point nine percent of Cincinnati's rush attempts have been stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage. That's the seventh highest percentage in the league. So that's something to keep an eye on. Maybe some tackles for a loss or no gains for the Steelers defense against the Cincinnati run game. Do you think Porter just takes Jamar Chase? Is that the obvious matchup.
I kind of get the hunch that they're gonna play sides just because it makes it a little less confusing, less chance of a coverage bust and Higgins is having a heck of a year or two.
I agree with you that Higgins presents enough of a challenge where you can think about that where you can say, Okay, maybe it's logical to just not travel and whatever receiver ends up opposite to Joey, that's good with us. We're gonna need Joey against them. But I don't know, Matt, just something really scares me about Jamar Chase. As good as T Higgins is, Jamar Chase, I think is just in a completely different stratosphere. A top three receiver in the NFL. He might be the best receiver in the NFL.
One agree, Yeah, I mean I think Higgins is a top notch two that would be perfect opposite Pickens or maybe a Charger.
He could be a fringe one somewhere.
Yeah, yeah, But Chase is special. I mean, I don't think that's a scene at all to say he's the best wide receiver in the league.
Right now, Kasiki's starting to get some more looks from Burrow, isn't.
He he is? He really got a lot when Higgins was out because Gaseki isn't the tight end. I mean, he's a big slot. He doesn't block anybody. He's skinny, but he's really athletic former volleyball player, and he's been a nice pickup for him. He's just one more weapon. They got a lot of weapons per EPA.
The Steelers have faced the easiest slate of offenses in the league thus far. That will not be the case on Sunday. That will not be the case moving forward with this team schedule. Before we get out of here, Matt, some key matchups to highlight. We just talked about this one. It might not be the case most of the time, but they'll have theirm mind Imano moments for sure. It's Jamar Chase versus Joey Porter Jr.
Yeah, oh yeah, yeah, I mean that's best verse best. Chase is better though.
No offense to Joey Porter Jr. Because you say that against Pats Sertain's lining up a opposite him, Chase is better, Sauce Gardner, Chase is better. It's just the way it is. He is that good. And finally you have Dan Moore versus Bengals defensive Entrey Hendrickson. Will Hendrickson move around or do you think that'll mainly be a more matchup?
I need to double check his alignment. But just off the top of my head, I think he's predominantly on Dan Moore. I mean, yes, every team moves or ends around more than the Steelers, but Hendrickson almost always comes off the quarterbacks blind side, well the Dike battle before, and it shouldn't be that hard to help him too. But that's what every team says. And he still has a lot of sacks.
That's the thing. Like, he's got to be getting a lot of attention. He's got to be facing doubles and Max Protext and he's finding a way to get to the quarterback. That being said, if more if Darnell Washington, the help that anybody provides Dan Moore, stopping Trey Hendrickson is a huge key in this game. He's the only thing that can really affect the game defensively for Cincinnati.
He's the game changer absolutely. I mean much more so than Garrett was a week ago. I'm not saying he's better than Garrett. I'm just saying the brownside other stuff, you know what I mean, I get what you say. Yeah, yeah, yeah, all.
Right, that'll do it for us in the Advanced Scout Thanks has always for giving us a listen Steelers and Bengals On Sunday at one o'clock, Matt is on the air with the pre pre show on DV with Tim Benz, and then at eleven am, the Steelers Audio Network pregame kicks in kick off at one with Rob King, Craig Wolfley, Max Starks, and Missy Matthews. Matt and I will be back again next week with another Advanced Scout
