The Advanced ScoutWe got some work to do.
This is the Advanced Scout with Tom Upferman and Mac Williamson. Steelers dropped their second straight to the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. So they're three and two and hit the road to Vegas to meet the two and three Raiders. Matt Steelers had that game pretty much all game long, even though they were trailing at some points, I thought they were in pretty decent control. Then they're in the lead with the defense and five minutes to go on the clock to win it, and Dak Prescott just veteran quarterbacked his way down the field and put it in the end zone on that winner take all fourth and goalplay.
It certainly was a key component, and part of that made me think not there at the same level, But like, what would Russell Wilson?
Look here, you know, I love where you've gone with this.
Yeah, I mean, I'm not trying to stir things up. I mean, it's just there's value to these dudes that have been around the block and one in stadiums and understand when a defense is spent in time, hired and out of tricks that you know you can go back and know how to put teams away and Dak absolutely did. So we were kind of joking off the air that these past two weeks we've had this podcast, which I really enjoy, and we kind of ended them going I'm not really sure how the path the Steelers losing goes. You know, I can't really see them going right and losing these games. And they lost them both, you know, and of course we could have been like they could have blocked ten kicks and you know, I had a bunch of interceptions, and of course anybody can lose to anybody, but I'm trying to avoid that this week because this Raider team isn't very potent.
No, I mean, you should bounce back. You should should not fall to five hundred.
If you go a three game losing streak against these three teams. I'm concerned, concerned.
Very concerned, and I think that you know something that will avoid them falling in this trap is Yeah, we talked about the Colts, and we were like, yeah, you're better than the Colts. You'll meet the Colts.
They didn't.
Cowboys. It's the Cowboys. But still it's just Dak and CD. That's all you have to worry about. Actually, ended up, you only had to worry about Dak at the end, and he was the one that really beat you. And now it's the same thing with the Raiders. Were like Max Crosby is one dude, Like did they really scary at all? And they don't. But this time the Steelers should be playing with a desperation like their seasons on the line. That should be in their corner now.
Which I think that's where the Colts were. I think the cults were in.
That cults were. I think cowboys in a low way kind of were not as desperately as the Colts, but they were and they wanted to get right on national TV too. You can be like Steelers have that going now this week.
Yeah, and I'm sure there's listeners. Well why aren't you like that every week? Because they're human being, you know what I mean, Like you can forget like, well they should give every one hundred percent every play and every Tuesday afternoon, and well, yes, but there is a desperation and that's real, and any athlete will tell you that.
I'm sure you don't give one hundred and ten percent at your nine to five at your desk every day.
Some days I bet out there they are fellas you know, right.
I got two stats that aren't good for the Steelers though, that I want to leave off with. Pittsburgh is averaging eighteen point four points per game. That is the lowest amongst the fifteen teams that currently have a winning record. It's still only five games into Arthur Smith's eras the offensive coordinator, but that is more of the same and the really only thing that matters, the only statistic that matters.
Yeah, and there's another one in there that they're the bottom of the league at scoring touchdowns, and you know those things go hand in hand. Touchdowns resulten points and that needs you get better. There's just no way around that.
And then last week the Steelers were outgained by two hundred and nineteen yards. That's the worst yardage differential at home since Week sixteen of nineteen ninety eight.
Isn't that something that is crazy?
Yeah, two hundred and nineteen yards is a lot twenty six years ago, I know. And again it just goes in the opposite of what we said on this very podcast before that Cowboys game. What would happen like they want out game the Steelers right, would to run the ball in the Steelers defense. Sacracher stadium night years. Oh my god, the crowd's going to be behind them.
No control the clock, right.
And the crowd was Honestly, Labs and I were talking today of the crowd. You got to give them credit for that race to stuck it out right, I've sold out State one am.
Yeah, there wasn't many empty seats at midnight.
No, I did not expect that serious history before we get into this, I don't really need to update you on the series history here. Uh.
It's a story like the Cowboys though, like these isn't that great time?
Like you know, the old heads are loving this stretch of the Steelers schedule.
Yeah, I mean so, I've said this all last week. When I was a kid, you were taught to hate the Raiders first and then hate the Cowboys, you know.
For me, it was the Patriots.
I bet I was one seventy three, and.
The Ravens are just too easy to hate. You don't need to get taught that. Yeah, they didn't exist the womb hating them right.
Uh.
This is an incredible rivalry in the seventies particularly. It began in nineteen seventy and during that decade, the Steelers and Raiders met eleven times, including five playoff battles, three of which were AFC Championship games, and the seventies. The Raiders won six of those eleven. Overall, Oakland, La, Las Vegas the Raiders they led the series. They lead this series seventeen to fifteen, but these teams have split three to three in the postseason. Steelers have won eight of the last eleven, but the Raiders did have a six game winning streak spanning between nineteen seventy six and nineteen eighty four. Mike tomin is four and five against the Raiders. After winning last year twenty three to eighteen in Las Vegas, Steelers won eight of the last eleven. Is surprising to me because you always think of the Raiders as a bit of that bogie team, that team that you don't want to see on the schedule. But I guess they've handled them.
Especially in Oakland, not Vegas necessarily, but in Oakland was always a pitfall for this team.
They're one to zero in Vegas. They own them.
Now.
Steelers are great.
I bet they'll be a Steeler fan or two there.
It's a home Vegas is gonna be on the Silent count all game. It's a home game for them. Steelers are two and one on the road this year. Vegas is won and one at home. Pittsburgh is eleven and four in their last fifteen regular season road games, and the Steelers have won their past fourteen road games when they lead going into the fourth quarter. That is the longest current streak in the NFL. So they don't have any trouble going on the road.
Hostile lost their last last one.
They did lose their last one. He lost their last two in that building. Maybe it's just something about Lucas oilste that Las Vegas is minus three in turnover differential are they were in Week five? They're now minus seven for the season. That's worse than the league. The Raiders have just two takeaways in our worst in the NFL with nine giveaways. I think that can be the story of this game. Matt.
That's a good point. I mean, maybe you end up plus three in turnovers in this one. Yeah, it sounds, and back to back weeks that sounds.
Technically they were plus two because of that hooking ladder schoolyard bs play that they lost the ball on, but it was a really plus three in the turnover battle last week and they lost. That ain't happened in two weeks in a row.
And I count the block kicks make a plus four.
Okay, there such a rarity to lose a game like that, it is, but the Steelers somehow found away.
Looking I never win the turnover battle this week is the key though, I meanes it sets up very well for.
You, well, your conservative team to begin with, whether that's Russ or Field starting at quarterback. They've kind of worked that into fields as game and yeah, Russ brings that to the table already.
Interceptions are no, no, yeah.
And they don't take the ball away anyway. The Raiders, so it's cool, like they're cool.
And who knows their quarter I mean there's four potential quarterback those games.
I wouldn't recording the Raiders defense. We'll look at that side of the ball first. They give up five point five yards per play. How about the Steelers have thrown the ball on forty seven percent of their snaps. Only four offenses thrown at a lower percent of the time, but they have thrown at fifty four point two percent of the time in the past three games. So a little bit more usage of the passing game for the Steelers.
I'm sure some of its fourth quarter coming from behind here and there too.
But that leads me to ask you, how's that Dalla or Dallas? How's that Raider? Secondary? Because I'm looking at them on as right now, and I don't even know many of these people.
I know the very defense, it's a very name defense. It's Wilkins, who may or may not play in this game.
Crosby, well, you know Splaine, because.
Most people don't, you know. I mean, there's not a lot of brand names, there's not a lot of high end players. I will say they play better as a group than you would think just looking at their depth chart. So I think that you know, defensive minded head coach that they're pretty well coached on side of the ball. But they're not a high end defense.
No, they don't seem like a high end defense. They allow four point nine yards per carry against the run. Only five defenses are worse. They also allow one point eight two yards per carry before first contact. That is the seventh highest in the league. They held Denver two three of twelve on third downs last week, so that isn't terrible. If Wilkins doesn't play. Crosby's really their only big threat, huge threat, and he can wreck a game for sure. He's got TJ. Watt aspects to him very much. I'm also just not worried about it. If he's the only thing going for them. I think whoever the quarterback is will be able to avoid Max Crosby and kind of make the game plan oriented around and.
They'll probably get a sack and okay, but that doesn't mean the game for you, you know. I mean, he's gonna make a play here and there. He does every game. He's very Watt esque. I think he's one of the top five edge guys in the league. And then there's a drop off after that. But you know, the this is a second week in a row where it's like they don't stop the run well, they don't run well. You would think the Steelers can exploit that, but I'm not sure the Steelers run well. Right.
In the past couple of weeks, they haven't been able to stop the run very well.
Right.
Las Vegas is allowing a third down conversion rate of thirty percent. That's fourth best in the league. When combining third and fourth down conversion rate. The Raiders defense is eighth thirty percent in the NFL. Las Vegas faces an average third down of seven point eight yards to go, which is ninth best. Steelers offense. They're converting third downs to a forty point six percent clip and their average yards to go is seven point five on third down. That's twenty second amongst offenses. So I guess there's some success there with the Raiders on third down, and.
That Bet Crosby has a lot to do with that too.
Get into it pass rush. But how many times are teams facing a third down against the Raiders. Maybe they're moving the sticks on second down. There's not that much resistance from this defense at all.
The biggest thing that took away from what you said is Steelers are in third long way too much. I mean, they're bad on first downs.
And he's seven point five to go.
Yeah, good enough. It's not good enough, right, I Mean they're two often in third and lungs. It's one of the biggest problems with the offense, and.
A lot of times you'll see them be very conservative in those third and lungs. Yeah, throw short of the sticks or draw the ball right right right, Like when it was third and eight and they decided to take the field goal early in the Dallas game and they just kind of pitched to Shamplen, try to see how many yards he can get. Hey, maybe he breaks one and we get lucky, but we don't really care. We want three.
Yeah, I think that needs to be if you're ramped up a little bit.
Or if you're going to be that conservative, you got to make it third and four. You got to make it third and three. Then you can do all those.
Third and seven, third and eight, it's not gonna cut it.
You can do all the conservative plays then and they'll work, but not at that down.
Have better success on first down.
Yeah, I mean inside linebackers, Spelane familiar face.
They love him, and he makes plays. I know he's high on like the tackle list, but he's.
But we saw how you can really scheme him into terrible matchups in coverage. Yes, he can get just torched in coverage. In the passing game. I haven't really seen that much. I mean I have from Arthur Smith's track record so far you're in Pittsburgh, haven't really seen that much evidence to see him scheming those matchups up. But maybe he can cook up some favorable things to see Calvin Austin running up the seam on spolane.
Or something like that, or even friar mooth or an advantage against them. I mean, they are they all do. They're so familiar with them. I would one of the keys to the game to me is a tax splane. Yeah yes, yes, yeah.
Well that's a lot of middle of the field stuff.
Which hasn't been great.
Now, let's look at the Raiders offense. It's an offense that's producing five yards per snap this season. Pittsburgh's defense is surrounding five point one yards per play after giving up five point nine versus Dallas. Yeah, the points per game allowed for the Steelers didn't take that much of a hit. They're still only allowing fourteen point six points per game. Only the Chargers now have a better scoring defense. But yardage took a hit against them. Big double down the board as far as that's concerned.
And it's hard the card to count on red zone takeaways to bail you out, you know.
Yeah, you know, I was talking about that earlier today too. Dallas had no issue driving down the field, Like even if they just didn't turn it over, they'd hit thirty points on on Auburn's leg. They should be kicking, just kicking the fields, taking three points after three points after three points like, thank you Steelers?
Like and how often do Lamb and Prescott have a miscommunication that ends up in a pick or you know, like Dallas left some.
Stuff right, Yeah, Dallas left a lot out there. Las Vegas surprisingly is throwing the ball at sixty three point four percent. That is the sixth highest percentage in the league. If you remember, Dallas was the ball at the highest percentage in the NFL, the team that the Steelers just saw. So they like to pass the football.
I think it's because they're so bad at running it, Okay, I don't know if that's by design. I mean for much of the year, I would say they've had the worst running attack in the league.
Okay, and Dallas kind of did too.
Yeah, so what.
Is that going to get you? Because Dallas, right, there's a lot of that in the second half while they were coming back.
Or exactly, Daldell played well and had a good game.
You know, it was crazy in that game. Again not to just keep harping on that Dallas game, but it was crazy to see them able to use that running game in that last drive. Still, like have Dak hand the ball off and get four yards here, five yards here. Yeah, every once in a while, you know what I mean, just just once or twice, like you didn't have to always throw it, And that can really help a quarterback so much.
Absolutely, And again we don't know who the Raiders quarterback is going to be, but some semblance of a running game would go a real long way for them, and the Steelers need to eliminate that quick.
Well, who do you think it's going to be? What's your best guest right now on Tuesday while we record this O'Connell because it's the second time Minshew's been bent.
And say, you've been benched twice, you're gonna bench him, keep benching them every other week, you know, like more than any team in the league. I don't think they have an answer.
Minshew completed his first nine passes for one hundred and fifteen yards and a touchdown in Denver, but then he finished the day twelve for seventeen for one hundred and thirty seven yards with a touchdown in two interceptions, one of which Patzertain took to the house for a one hundred yard touchdown. Pass ten had two interceptions in that game against the Raiders one.
He was one hundred yard jaunt.
Yeah, so he had a hell of a time O'Connell. Like we said, replace Minshew at half just like he did, or not at halftime. He just replaced him last week, just like he did against the Carolina Panthers and the Raiders blowout lost to them. He threw the ball twenty times, he completed ten of those for just ninety two yards without a touchdown pass and ate An O'Connell through an interception as well. I think you're right. I think they're gonna go with him. This team should and they will, but they should dump Devonte Adam and try to get into the top five and see if they can find a quarterback in this class. M and their solution.
Now I know that people are listening to this well after and going backwards, my phone just lit up that Christian Wilkins is out and.
Definitely so that's he's not playing.
Definitely not playing. That was their big off season investment. Their best player on offense. Adams is not going to play in this game. Haven't we been down this road before with Lawrence and Parsons And you know.
And I feel better this week then I know me to still have that desperation. Like we said, a lot of.
Steeler injuries though, too, Like you and I are playing outside linebacker this week, and you know there's some things in problematic too.
There is uh you trading or at least kicking the tires on Max Crosby for the Raiders if this season gets really crazy, what do you need him for? Right You could get a lot, get a lot and help the rebuild. And yeah, to be quite honest with you, I mean you don't need him right now. You you won't need that kind of player in his prime to like three or four years from now.
I mean leads are going to be playing with him. Yeah, yeah, I mean I know that's been breached to him. And I don't want to leave and I'm happy here and that's fine.
And NFL is so different from other sports. You keep cornerstone players. You don't just like burn a franchise face like that. I get that, But I'm just saying it could help out for sure, because this team is going.
They need everything. Their off season needs are going to be everything.
So put the nail on that coffin. If you're the Steelers, you know, really set their season on the path of They know it's not going anywhere. Get them to two and four. Don't let them get me.
Get to this game at halftime and you already know it's over.
Yeah, you know, thinking vacation, They're thinking what am I going to do in January? I can't wait till the season's over. Crabit's on the October. We got a long road ahead of us, So get this one over with. Don't give them any hope in the first half. As far as past catching weapons, Matt Jacoby Myers, no Adams, so we don't have to worry about that. Jacoby Myers had five plus catches in three straight games after catching seven passes over the first two weeks of the season. He's been targeted twenty eight times over the past three weeks. It's been Myers and Bowers in the absence of Adams. Yes, that's what they've gone with.
And the other thing is too Michael Mayer. They want to play a lot of twelve with the mayor. Mayor was out last week. Alan Turi's gonna play this week. So yeah, Meyers and especially Bowers are pretty darn impressive and they get a lot of targets.
Yeah, Bowers left the team in targets with twelve and receptions last week with eight. He finished the day with eight catches, ninety seven yards and a touchdown. Did you see that touchdown? I'm sure yeah. Yeah, Cat scrabbed it over the guy. Yeah, right to the house. He's a start.
He looked like at Georgia.
He's a great talent for he really is. He hit a career high thirty three point three percent target chare and number of targets against Denver, but in that game, Bowers only had an average depth of target of five point eight yards downfield. They're starting to use him more and more because he's starting to get comfortable in the NFL more and more. And steels inside linebackers have been disappointing this year.
Yeah, they have.
We'll get to Bowers match up a little bit later because I think you think there's gonna be some safety help involved.
Yeah, but he's a problem. I mean, I think his target numbers are gonna keep going up and up and up.
Biggest problem on the offense that the Steelers their face.
Yeah, I think so that's safe to say, Well, he's a rookie's rookie.
Yeah, you can get him on some stuff. Because he's a little ignorant to the NFL. Still, Raiders' quarterbacks are getting sacked on nine percent of their dropbacks. Only seven offenses are worse. But the Steelers' defense is only blitzing on twenty point six percent of opposing dropbacks. Only five defenses have a lower blitz rate. I'm glad that that's that was in here, Matt, because I get that you don't want to blitz. I get that you get home with four guys a lot because you got TJ, you got Alex high Smith. You don't have them anymore, and you might not have her big in this game, and it might be TJ and Jeremiah.
Smith and her big are both.
Rolled out, So like you gotta start dialing up some blitzeres. I think she gotta adjust. I would have liked to see it against Dallas. You know, Dak had a little bit too much time, especially on that last drive. But I think you gotta adjust a little bit here.
I tend to agree. And your inside linebackers are very good blitzers too. We haven't seen a taste of that much this year, but.
Maybe that's something that can get Queen jump started. He hasn't really had much going on. Give him a sack, a big impact play on third, make.
A big play, yeah, a long way.
Raiders are averaging eighty four rush yards per game. That ranks only ahead of the Jets and the Cowboys, and their rushing success rate is by far last than the league at twenty seven point seven percent. For perspective, Houston is thirty first and rushing success rate at thirty one point four percent, So it's like four percentage points worse for the Raiders. But we're singing that same song as like.
I know, this sounds really redundant.
Right, sounds really redundant. And we even listed the Cowboys there in your statu back. Yeah, they just beat them one hundred and nine yards on the ground for the Cowboys against the Steelers, Madison carried the ball fifteen times. No one else had more than five carries last week. You can only get thirty eight yards on those fifteen carries. Zamir White leads the team with one hundred and fifty two rushing yards, but only a three point one yards per carry average in samere Whit's hurt. So know if he's gonna play. Madison is second with one hundred and twenty five rushing yards an average of three point nine. Vegas has twelve rushes of ten plus yards. Only seven offenses have fewer, and one of those offenses have already had their bye week. It's the same thing. You just got to be better at stopping the run. You got to adjust there, and you got to bounce back back in that aspect.
Just play your game. Well, the Steelers are a better team, I.
Know, and I think that's been the case for the past two weeks though, So you got to follow through now and get the result at least Dallas a DAC and you know I agreed. Yeah, Well the cold said Flo too, I mean, and.
Yeah right, and now I hear what you're saying.
Flaco could think the game at least better than Mins. Absolutely, Aidan O'Connell. All right, key matchups before we leave, Raiders tight end brock Bauers versus Steelers safety Deshaun Ellie. You think that's going to be the guy who gets tasked a lot with a group project.
It's a group project, but they move bowers around a lot. Make make a catch on to that a little bit maybe, but doesn't sound like Casey is going to play in this game.
Either it's going to have to be into like total mop up duty.
Yeah, maybe, but boy, it would be nice to see manco on Bowers a lot because that could eliminate could cut the right arm off, you.
Know, any hope in the linebackers covering him or is he just too much of them?
Not man, But I mean it's going to be a group project safeties and pass.
Him off to Yeah, he could run with him for a nice five steps if he had to.
I think Ellie, it's your best tight end e racer.
Though I liked Sewn Elliot. He's been playing well this year.
He's been nice addition.
And then Steelers offensive tackles versus Raiders defensive end Max Crosby. And I'm assuming you wrote that way because he'll move. You're both Jones and Moore are both going to have a taste of Crosby.
But it seems like more Jones.
Oh good, you know, I would rather have more It's crazy that we've come around that point, but I'd rather have more hands than Crosby. But if I was the Raider last year, if I was the Raiders, I'd put him over Jones. Yeah, that's where I want him to hunt.
I looked it up and I don't remember, but I think most of his most of his snaps are coming to the quarterbacks, right, But he does move like all good. I mean, like all pass rushers.
Besides what right, besides Crosby had two sacks last week.
Yeah, he's all right. He's still beast like, he's phenomenal, and he like never takes a snap off.
So insummation, We've got Crosby on the defensive side of the ball, and you've got Bowers on the offensive side of the ball. Those are your scary dudes, Those are rats.
Those are your difference makers. Yeah.
Other than that, there's nothing that really puts fear in your heart when you see the Raiders.
Not really, unless the Steelers play poorly, you know, and don't you know, self inflicted wounds things like that.
We both can't see that being the case with the Steelers this week either.
But it's shocking to see that because this team doesn't have a quarterback.
Amen to that. Steelers Raiders four oh five kickoff against Vegas. Matt will be on the air I think around like noon ish something like that for you and Tim Benz that hour and then two o five for Steelers Audio Network pregame with Labs Perzuda and Jerry Dulac. Thanks for giving myself a matt A listen. We'll be back again next week to preview another Sunday night football matchup between the Steelers and the Jets, but until then this has been the Advanced Scout
