The Advanced ScoutWe got some work to do.
This is the Advanced Scout with Tom Opperman and Mac Williamson. Don't need much to hype you up for this matchup, Steelers Cowboys under the lights Sunday night Football. The Cowboys come into town with a two and two mark, the Steelers at three to one after losing to the Colts, and Matt, I guess we'll start there with a quick thought. You know you're not gonna go undefeated. You're not the seventy two Dolphins. Yes, that's a disappointing loss on the road against a team that had their backup quarterback come in and old familiar face with that backup quarterback, and the Steelers should have won. But this stuff happens in the NFL. It does the Broncos just beat the Buccaneers in their own place two weeks ago? Yeah, weird things go on.
Braiders beat the Ravens two weeks and.
Then the Panthers turn around and beat the Radar.
Right, Yeah, I mean there's this isn't uncommon. I was just on the drive with Dale talking power ranks and saying I have a pretty good idea who ten good teams are, but I don't know who's great. I know who the bad teams are, and I don't think the Colts are one of those, you know.
I mean no, I don't either.
And the Steelers shot themselves in the foot a couple times. And it's hard to win four games in a row and three games in a row on the road in this league. And that's on an excuse. And frankly, I think they beat the Colts seven out of ten times, but this was one of the other three.
What you said about them shooting themselves in the foot, that really was the main reason. I mean, the defense being poor was the main reason, but that goes into shooting themselves in the foot. They just didn't play winning football, no, And the Colts played like a desperate team that needed to get that win.
That's what I was going to say too. I Mean, I know everyone wants to blame Tomlin and the team for quote coming out flat or whatever. The Colts were desperate and were flying around to start that game and they took it to the Steelers. And that along with the mistakes or why the Steelers lost.
When all the Steelers hope to bounce back against a rival Dallas Pittsburgh quick series history for you. The Cowboys lead this series seventeen to sixteen. Matt, this is a big can tie it up. But these two teams have not squared off since twenty twenty A game the Steelers one in Dallas dating back to nineteen eighty five, Pittsburgh is seven and four versus the Cowboys. Between nineteen sixty and nineteen sixty sixties, franchises met thirteen times. Of course, there was no I don't remember how that works now.
Yeah.
The most notable matchups, of course, the matchups that made this such a great rivalry super Bowl ten, Super Bowl thirteen, Super Bowl thirty. Steelers got those first two in the seventies. Cowboys paid them back in the nineties during Super Bowl thirty. I said this on the standard earlier today, it's the best rivalry in the NFL AFC versus NFC Cross conference rivalry. I suppose it's hard to find those. I hear fair like, I'm kind of true picking a little bit.
Who else could be in that neighborhood. I don't know, but it's a good one. I mean, three big super Bowls, huge fan bases, all that kind of stuff.
The two brands. When it comes to the nfah two.
Yeah, so I'm with you on that.
So, as I mentioned, the Steelers are three and one, the Cowboys are two and two. The Steelers have not lost at home yet, just winning against the Chargers a couple of weeks ago in their home opener. The Cowboys are undefeated on the road. That's weird, Matt. They had a crazy home winning streak. Yeah, that was broken, but the playoffs last year by the Packers. Then the regular season one was broke at the beginning of the year when oh, I forget who went into Dallas and just kicked the crap out of the Saints. The Saints broke the regular season streak and they lost again at home to the Ravens. They can't figure out that at and T Stadium magic right now?
Yeah, and that Saint scene was hot and the Ravens are good and they were a desperate team too, But I hadn't thought of that. They were really dominated home there for a while.
Now. I think when you're looking at this Dallas defense, they can't stop the run. That's the headline.
Obviously the most recent game they annihilated the Giants run game. But I also think they had a really good strategy in that game and just totally dedicated all their resources to it and realized, Yeah, Daniel Jones is gonna complete passes to Wandel Robinson and neighbors. But then they're going to flounder in the red zone as Jones usually does, and end up with three if they can sustain long drives. But when they faced real running games, they have been gashed. And really the biggest news. Parsons and Lawrence are by far their best two players, and either is going to play in this game.
So is that for sure about Parsons?
I think so. I think so.
He just doesn't seem right, Like the whole tone of the Cowboys organization just feels like there's no way he's playing.
I don't think it's official. I guess when we're recording this Tuesday evening, no question, but I'd be shocked if Parsons play.
Yeah, I feel what you're saying about that Giants game last week. They gave up like only twenty six yards of rushing to the Giants, but it was four hundred and sixty four rushing yards in weeks two and three combined for the Dallas was before that Giants got right right, right, think about that you're playing the Saints with Kamara and you're playing the Ravens who just are running on everybody right now. True, but still you were Swiss cheese. They ripped right through you. And that should be the strategy for the Steelers in this game. I know Nase he's coming off of that thirteen rush nineteen yard performance on the ground, did that big game in the passing game, and he now has seventy plus yards from scrimmage in seven straight games. But no, Patterson probably.
Doesn't sound good.
Yeah, Warren probably not gonna have any.
Yeah, that's the part I don't love about the run game.
It's all on Harris now this week, and this is a matchup where you need to lean on it.
And he hasn't been very efficient. You got a lot of volume. I don't know that he fits this run scheme as well as he did the previous one.
Is that why you saw Patterson maybe have a little bit of a better time picking his way through the line.
Maybe. I also think there's some fresh legs there too. And one thing I think is starting to become not a tell, but it's a little bit of a trend, is when Nausey's in the game. I hesitate to bring this up because I'm just kind of workshopping it right now. But when Nausey's in the game, it sure feels like the linebackers and safeties are triggering downhill faster, you know.
Like like there's not even a threat they're going to pass the ball on this.
I mean, he plays a lot of snaps, and obviously they throw the ball when he's out there some, but it just seems like linebackers from the same depth or safety from the same depth when Patterson or warreners out there aren't coming downhill now like they are with Nausey. And again, I'm it's just kind of an observation.
He might not be going like we want him to. But the offensive philosophy is leaning heavy towards the run. Pittsburgh only passes the ball on forty six point three percent of their offensive STAPs. Only three offenses are lower than that. On first downs, just two teams run the ball at higher percentages of the time than the Steelers do, and this is jumbo jumbo personnel. They use fourteen personnel two percent of the time and thirteen personnel seventeen percent of the time. Two percent of the time doesn't seem high for fourteen, No One, he don't see that two percent qualifies as the highest rate of fourteen personnel in the league.
The fact that you might get that is insane.
Yeah, thirteen personnel is the highest in the league with seventeen percent eleven personnel, which teams that boast a lot of skill at wide receiver, running back. They only are operating out of that forty two percent of the time. The identity is there. They want to be a run first, jumbo set football team, the running backs the only one and the injuries to the offensive line that is kind of derailing that somewhat.
And this is a small note, and I know it's only two percent on the fourteen personnel, but it would be higher. Prove it didn't get hurt, you know.
He ran out of the.
Fourth four right.
Last week, Justin Fields became the third quarterback in Steel's history three hundred plus passing yards and fifty plus rushing yards in the same game. He is the ninth quarterback in NFL history with those yardage numbers matched with one or more passing touchdown and two or more rushing touchdowns. That's just his second career, three hundred yard passing game of his career, and his seventy point six percent completion percentage is seventh best amongst qualified quarterbacks. That sounds like a really good quarterback. He played a really great game, if I do say myself. Yeah, that's the thing though, Matt, right now, he got them in that position to win it in the two minute drive, and then it was his fault that they lost it. I know, he couldn't figure out the snap thing. Again.
So this is going backwards and looking at the last week's game, but it obviously applies going four too. Is if we look at the Steeler offenses from like the last five years, and we're talking even end of Ben and everything we've dealt with since you know, on that side of the ball. Right, if I told you those offenses got down seventeen to nothing, lost a turnover battle by two, handed the ball to the opponent twice on fourth down, and had very little running game to lean on, I don't care who they're playing, would have been like, oh, they lost by.
Forty, right exactly.
You know, so now they can actually come back, and Field's had a lot to do with that.
I think Fields had most most do with that, right He was awesome.
He picked the governor off fields. Let's just get on your back.
And he was feeling it too in that two minute drill. Yeah you could. I was sitting with Mike Persuda after the game because he does the post game show, and we were both in agreement, like and the moment we were like, forget the field goal, like he's.
Going to sage.
They are locked in and just exactly what he's saying, it'll brain fart where he's taking a peek at the secondary after he already triggered the silent snap and oops, it was the ball.
For some reason on social media, when Dale and I say that was a fields problem, people go crazy.
I'll tell you why. There's some manipulated footage being passed around. They are picking up the play after McCormick taps Fraser on the hip, so it looks like Fraser just out of nowhere snapped the football and didn't get tapped, and they're like, oh, you're throwing McCormick under the bus. Fraser, Huh, he did say any tapped you when he didn't. But then when you look at the game footage, you can see the field's leg go up. Yeah, the norm tap the thigh. Fraser kind of looks around and then just.
That's why they do it that one, And you know what.
That makes total sense to when you go back after seeing that and listen to Fraser, you can hear how confused he is in the post game. He's not trying to throw mcormick under the bus, he's not trying to throw Fields under the bus, but he's like, I don't know what else I'm supposed to do, Like, I just did my job and thankfully Fields did come out and say that was on me. Yeah, but yeah, that's a huge mistake. And I think that's I don't know why the coaching staff and us we're not all on fields yet, not.
The first snap we've seen Boss the fields too, and that's you know, one oh one, you know, And.
Let's be honest, Tom wins a trust issue kind of coach, especially when it comes to those type of things.
So, yeah, a procedural thing, right, you know, Wilson's gonna be better at that this.
Worst case scenario there. Honestly, if you're coach, Tom's like, we're gonna win this game in a two minute drill and oops, my quarterback just fumbled the snap.
Couldn't figre out the snap.
Yeah, Fields is scrambling on ten percent of his dropbacks, that's fifth highest in the league. The Steelers are designing rushing attempts for Fields on twenty percent of their rushing attempts. That's the fourth highest percentage amongst quarterbacks, and as a result, Fields is averaging nine point three carries per game this season. I thought I saw a little bit more of the design.
I think it went from if we did this, if we cited that one week ago, it would have been lower, right.
I think they took an increase in that and I like it, and I think that's part of why he was able to mount that comeback and looks so great.
And I'm sure people were like, why did they do it in the past then, because they were winning the game and they then the defense just had total clamps on the other team.
One thing I didn't want to mention before looking at Dallas' offense, their red zone defense is only better than Carolina's and Miami, so once you get in the twenty yard line and in you should score. Pittsburgh's red zone offense, though, is only better than five teams. So those are two weaknesses for those sides of the ball.
It is, and this isn't a podcast about should it be Wilson or should it be fields. But Wilson's a really good red zone passer. And I know some people will be like, well, there's no way he would have run some of those in probably not maybe probably not.
But but I like he can run for five yards, Like, let's not act like Russell Wilson has Ben roethlisyears old. Yeah, right right, he can still move on right. He ran for over twenty first downs last year for Denver, like himself picked them up. So yeah, he still got that ability. But Matt, say doesn't run in that five yard or say he doesn't run in that two yarder, he'll throw the five yarder. He'll throw the two yard And I think there was a lot of meat left on that bone in the first half against the Colts passing wise, that I'm not sure Russ leaves there.
I agree. So it's an interesting debate and that that's not really what we're here to do. But I see both sides of the quarterback situation.
Now Dallas has no debate on who their quarterback is, and they love to use them. They're passing the football on sixty five point six percent of their offensive snaps. It's the highest percentage in the league. On first downs, only three offenses are passing it at a higher percentage of the time. They're not even messing with the run in Dallas. And why would you when you have rico'dowdell and Ezekiel Allience. Yeah, it's personnel.
It's a pretty poor running game, you know, Like it's a far cry from Jonathan Taylor who we saw last.
Week, or or ay K Dobbins even the week Kay.
Dobbins, I mean this explosive, impressive ball carriers. They don't have anybody like that.
They're like the anti Steelers. As far as personnel too, the Cowboys use ten personnel nine percent of the time. That's the league's highest rate. They use one personnel two point four percent of the time, that's the second highest rate in the league. In their fifth in their usage of twenty personnel and twenty two personnel. They're also seventh in their usage of twenty one personnel. So they a lot of different packages out.
Yeah, yeah, that's what I say, Like kind of like the fourteen conversation we had with the Steeler personnel groupings you don't see zero one personnel very often. No back in one tight end, you know, but they'll throw some different stuff at you.
And maybe that's because they got a tight end that's skilled with Jake Ferguson, Yeah, someone that's more of a pass catcher. So yeah, you were in zero one personnel, but it's really like zero zero personnel, like yeah, and that light is on the field, no backs.
My hunches. That's at the end of a half or end of a game when there's no run threat either.
And you know, Dak's passing yards one thy seventy two rank only behind Geno Smith and brock Perty. He was leading the league before a week four. Last week, Prescott only had one incompletion on nineteen attempts on early downs, with one hundred and eighty seven passing yards and two touchdowns on first and seconds downs, and he finished the day with two hundred and twenty one yards. So he gets it done early, you know, doesn't really get the third down often for Dak Prescott.
No, And I think a big part of that is he doesn't get nearly the credit he should for being so smart. I mean, he is almost Peyton Manning like level.
He thinks the game higher than most quarterbacks now.
No question, and at the line of scrimmage and early Why I'm saying that is on early downs you get more predictable coverages. I'm gonna go to my cover two beat or you know, you're not getting exotic glitches things like that. His diagnosed diagnostic skills are tremendous.
His favorite weapon is C. D. Lamb. He has three hundred and sixteen receiving yards. It's eighth most in the NFL. However, his twenty one point one percent team target share is behind thirty five other pass catchers in the league, and Lamb's target per route run comes in twenty first. Lamb's yards per route run is the thirteenth highest in the league. He does have a thirty seven game streak going in which he has caught at least four passes. About that, it's the third longest streak since nineteen seventy, behind Michael Thomas and Julio Jones is a pretty good company to keep right there. What's up with that target shair though? So he's still getting a lot of touchdowns?
Yeah, I mean, I'm sure a lot of our listeners play fantasy and he's one of the best. He was a second or third pick in your fantasy draft, and you're not disappointed he let it up. Yeah, but it's not quite as good as last year. And I don't think they're scheming him open quite as well. Like if you watch the tape, a lot more contested catches, a lot more coverage his way, and I think that's just people aren't respecting the other weapons quite as much.
You know, Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, doubt as.
Elliott, Yes, and I mean they're okay, but we'll let.
Them beat us. Yeah, letting the actual stud beat us.
And there's a run game.
This will be a Joey Porter junior assignment. Obviously. He will see Land for the entirety of the game, unless, of course, a mismatch happens. Every once in a while, some motion changes him up and that's a tough ASIGN didn't have the best go of it last week either. But Joey might be one of those guys where when he sees eighty eight from the Cowboys lined up across from him, it just goes to a different level. On Sunday night football, you know what I mean, Like the lights are bright, the matchup's amazing. I'm going up against the top three widers in football. Let's make a name for myself.
And I don't think it was Porter's best game. I mean, I'm sure he would tell you that if he was sitting here. But the first pass of the game was a centimeter off his fingertip. He almost had a pick in the end zone, right, And the second straight week though it looked like he had a coverage s gaff though responsibility.
Touchdown on the Quentin Johnson won in the Chargers game. Yet, yeah, flying up to the line of scrimmage. And I don't know if he was supposed to stay on Johnson or if Minca was supposed to come over. All I know is Manca did not come over. So I'm pretty sure Joey should have stayed.
On Queen last game.
Yeah, So I think Joey's got to kind of just get the head on straight a little bit here, especially this week against Ceedee Lamb.
It's perfect right light situation to do that.
Just wake you up a little bit, right, You're not bored with the matchup. Prescott has been blitzed on twenty one point seven percent of his dropbacks, only six quarterbacks have been blitzed at a lower rate. Is that the mental the mental thing there, He's just he's gonna beat you if he knows the blitz is coming before the snap.
And I know I got to go to this hot and I'm going to tear you up. He Historically it does well against blitz, so that's.
Good for the Steelers. Don't blitz at all. They're recording a sack on eight point eight percent of opponents dropbacks. That's the seventh highest percentage in the NFL. That needs to be a little bit higher, honestly for Yees. Steelers are, but their twenty percent blitz rate is only higher than six defenses in the NFL. What high Smith when he's healthy, her big now, Hayward Benton, they don't need much help. They can get it done themselves most of the time. Now last week they couldn't, But most of the time they can.
And I'm sure their sack percentage would go up if their blitz percentage it went up, I.
Think, and this is a game. Look last week I think they needed to adjust. They needed to send some more blitz because they were not getting home with four, especially with Flacco rattle him a little bit. I'm opposite this week because of what you said on Dak Prescott's IQ, his pre snap diagnosis of what you're gonna do. He moves, don't blitz this guy. Don't blitz this guy. You can. You have to get pressure on him. So Watt has to show up big time. Hayward has to show up big time. But you can't afford to send more people in this game because beat you.
No, and this offensive line isn't as good.
He's just gonna ask it to step down.
We may have. I mean, we gave the Colts offensive line a lot of credit one week ago, but not enough. And this group of guards is I think the best in the league in Dallas. Martin and Smith's too, but the other positions are highly questionable and.
Young, well, Tyler Guiiten's a rookie at left tackle, Cooper Bebe's a rookie at center, right, Steve rookies on this offensive line, and.
Steel's gonna get what's Steel's fine? I mean, he's a below average.
Starter, but I think I'll expect And you know, last week we talked about the Colts and we were like, yeah, they got a great offensive line, but our tone was defense for the Steelers can be great offensive lines. It did not against the Colts. I'm not betting on that happened in two straight weeks at home.
Terrible, proud, noise, all that good stuff, right, I agree, and especially because they're not going to run you out of it.
We mentioned the running backs a little bit before we wrap up. Just a quick note on them. Rico Dawdle is the Cowboys leading rusher. He only has carried the ball thirty four times though through four weeks, and he has one hundred and thirty four yards. Zeke Elliott is Dallas's second leaning rusher. Of twenty four carries for eighty one yards so far, they averaged three point nine and three point four yards per carry, respectively. It was weird in the off season when you know they didn't go out and address the running back position. You'd think all that the Cowboys. Are they getting in on Saquon Maybe Nope, they didn't do any of that. Instead, they bring Zeke back and that's their big running back move. And at least they're playing on offense like they went through their offseason ignoring the running back position, like they're not using it. So what's the point of loading a good player there.
See, I think what happened if you go through the off season was.
They were going to draft one and that was their whole plan.
That was a whole plan, and it was an okay running back draft. But I think by all accounts, they were going to take Jonathan Brooks out of Texas, okay, and Carolina jumped them in the second round to make him the first running back off the board, and then they didn't do anything since I mean, it doesn't mean you can just punt at that point, you know.
No, they need better in the running game for sure. Thatk just can't do it on his own. Pittsburgh's red zone defense is tied for fourth best in the NFL, so maybe they can stimy a Cowboys drive deep in Steelers territory before they get in the end zone. Key matchups to keep an eye on here. We touched on this one briefly. Ceedee Lamb versus Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr. It's a heavyweight fight and it's a real not that he's not on the map already, but it's a big time stage, national TV audience. You hold CD Lamb to four catches for forty yards with a couple people are going to talk about you a lot of good point.
It's a great time to shine and really make a name for yourself. And it's a really tough test. I mean, he's a great route runner, he's phenomenal to catch point, he's excellent after the cat.
How is he with physicality? Handles are great, So yeah, Joey's greatest strengthen going to do much to him.
I mean, Joey's a handful, He's super long and he's gonna bang around. He can handle it thing.
He's a big player too. And then our last key matchup for Steelers on offense, it's Naji Harris versus Cowboys linebacker Demarvion Overshown. If we don't really talk about the personnel on the Cowboys defensive side today, because without Parsons and Lawrence they're out. You know, Diggs is an okay member of that secondary, but Eric Kendricks is older. He's overshown as zimmers best buddyms okay, So that's why he's that.
The Vikings connection and he's the brains of the operation.
But he's a little older, Overshown his young third round pick last year.
Yeah, he's dynamic, he's undersized, and he's part of the problem with run defense. If you get big bodies on him. He kind of plays like a safety.
But it sounds great for nause.
You know, like Overshown's fun to watch. Like we just watched his highlight tape. He'd be like, WHOA.
So if they're a run in the ball, nause he's not going to beat over shown to the sideline on a sweep, but you want to go right up? I want to get downhill.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. If you can get alignment on him or even Nausey just won on one, put your head in his chest and see how it goes, you know.
Steelers and Cowboys Sunday Night Football at Acrosuurre Stadium, eight twenty kickoff. Pregame locally starts at four point thirty. Steelers Audio Network picks it up at six twenty, and then Rob King, Craig Wolfley, Max Starks, and Missy Matthews have the Call for you at eight twenty. Formatt I'm Tom, thanks for giving us a listen. We'll be back again next week on the Advanced Scout
