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426 - Is The ALP Guaranteed Victory In The 2026 South Australian Election?

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As the March 21st, 2026 South Australian state election approaches, the Malinauskas Labor government maintains polling numbers that would make most incumbents envious. Yet beneath this apparent stability, questions linger about whether today’s ALP still embodies the values of the workers’ movement from which it emerged, or whether it has become something else entirely.

** The image features Gemini's best effort of imagining Steve Davis and Robert Godden as modern day Don Dunstans.

This episode features no SA Drink of the Week, a decision that tips its hat to both Robert Godden’s teetotalling preferences and to King O’Malley, the flamboyant insurance salesman who permanently removed the ‘u’ from ‘Labor’ while dodging questions about his own birthplace.

The Musical Pilgrimage presents Australia Day by Steve Davis and The Virtualosos, a song that addresses social cohesion and community connection in contemporary Australia, themes that connect directly to the political fragmentation discussed throughout the episode.

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Running Sheet: Is The ALP Guaranteed Victory In The 2026 South Australian Election?00:00:00 Intro

Introduction

00:00:00 SA Drink Of The Week

There is no SA Drink Of The Week this week.

00:02:37 Robert GoddenThe Adelaide Show: Special Briefing — The Labor Machine

This conversation serves as the companion piece to episode 423’s examination of the South Australian Liberal Party. Where that episode explored the Liberal Party’s challenges, this discussion has our political commentator, Robert Godden, apply the same analytical rigour to the South Australia Labor Party‘s position heading into the 2026 state election.

The conversation begins with King O’Malley, that peculiar figure in Australian political history who was, in Robert’s memorable description, “50% staunch Australian politician, 50% carnival worker.” O’Malley’s legacy includes both Canberra and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, institutions that prompted Robert to reflect: “Most of us Australians can just give thanks to the days, you know, before you go to bed, you think, I’m glad I live in a country that has a bank with an appalling logo and a capital city in the middle of nowhere.”

The historical roots of the labour movement trace back to the Industrial Revolution, when workers were, as Robert puts it, “really the AI of the day, you know, come and get this. It’s cheap, it’ll do your work for you and you’ll make a huge profit.” This parallel between 19th century industrialisation and contemporary technological disruption threads through the conversation, particularly when Robert shares the story of a logistics company owner whose business is failing because “the work he used to do in working stuff out for people is now done by AI.”

The discussion explores how guilds differed from unions, with Robert explaining that guilds “were designed to move their members toward the ruling class. They weren’t, guilds didn’t really exist to lift all boats. They were a highly specific rising tide.” This distinction becomes relevant when examining modern Labor’s approach to worker representation.

Robert traces the evolution of Australian labor politics from its foundation in the shearers’ strikes of the 1890s through to contemporary challenges. The ALP emerged as the world’s first labour party to form government, a fact that speaks to Australia’s democratic traditions. Yet the party has undergone significant transformation, moving from representing primarily blue-collar workers to a broader base that includes professional and service sector employees.

The conversation examines whether modern Labor still serves its founding principles or has become absorbed into the political establishment it once challenged. Robert notes the irony that many Labor MPs now come from professional backgrounds rather than the shop floor, raising questions about whether they truly understand the working-class experience they claim to represent.

On the Malinauskas government specifically, the analysis reveals a pragmatic administration that has maintained stability during challenging economic conditions. However, Robert questions whether this stability comes at the cost of bold vision. “Is it enough to simply manage well, or should a labor government be pushing for more substantial change?” he asks.

The discussion touches on the tensions within modern Labor between traditional unionised workers and newer constituencies, between economic management and social justice, between South Australian interests and national party directions. Robert suggests that while Malinauskas has successfully navigated these tensions so far, the test will come when difficult choices force the government to reveal which interests truly take priority.

When examining Labor’s electoral prospects for 2026, Robert notes the Liberals’ current disarray creates favourable conditions, but warns against complacency. “Oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them,” he observes. The question becomes whether Labor can maintain discipline and avoid the kinds of missteps that have undone seemingly secure governments in the past.

The conversation concludes with broader reflections on the state of South Australian politics. Robert suggests that both major parties face a fundamental challenge: reconnecting with an electorate that increasingly feels disconnected from traditional political structures. This alienation creates opportunities for minor parties and independents to claim territory that major parties once dominated.

Throughout the discussion, the historical parallels between past industrial disruption and contemporary technological change illuminate present challenges. Just as workers in the 1800s faced displacement by machinery, today’s workforce confronts automation and artificial intelligence. The question of how a modern Labor party responds to these challenges reveals much about whether it remains true to its founding mission of protecting workers’ interests.

01:24:41 Musical Pilgrimage

In the Musical Pilgrimage, we feature Australia Day by Steve Davis & The Virtualosos.

The Musical Pilgrimage connects directly to the episode’s themes of social cohesion and political fragmentation. Steve introduces his original composition “Australia Day” by reflecting on how disconnection fuels the rise of fringe political movements.

The song addresses the transformation of Australian community life, opening with the observation that “The Australia which I was born had lots of backyards and lots of lawn, and we knew our neighbours down the street.” This nostalgia isn’t mere sentimentality but recognition of something lost: the neighbourhood connections that once helped integrate newcomers and build social cohesion.

Steve explains how two factors exacerbate contemporary division. First, physical disconnection: “My dad used to know everyone in our neighbourhood, and therefore we did too. Now most of us hardly know anybody. We’ve got our houses closed off.” Second, algorithmic isolation: “The communication we do have externally is very filtered. Algorithm-focused content that feeds more of what the big American corporations like Meta and Google think is going to pander to our vulnerabilities.”

Drawing on his own experience living in Hungary, Steve reflects on the immigrant perspective: “When you’ve moved somewhere new… you look for compatriots to connect with, so you’ve got something to hold onto.” This understanding shapes the song’s call for empathy and connection rather than fear and division.

The song’s chorus captures the core message: “Who’s here is here now let’s make it work. It starts with learning. We share this dirt, we share the same song, we share the flies, and there’s a vibe here beneath our skies. Just tone it down, be laid back, bend a little, and cut some slack.”

Steve positions the song as a counterpoint to political and social fragmentation, a reminder of Australian values that have, imperfectly but meaningfully, helped diverse groups find common ground. “Part of that is not blowing a fuse at the smallest thing. It’s actually calming the farm and being a little bit laid back, holding things a little bit loosely, drawing a line in the sand when it needs to happen, but not making that a knee-jerk reaction.”

The song is available on all streaming platforms, and Steve extends an invitation to performers who might want to bring their own interpretation to the material.

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