Welcome to tech Stuff, a production from I Heart Radio. Hey there, and welcome to tech Stuff. I'm your host, Jonathan Strickland. I'm an executive producer with I Heart Radio, and I love all things tech, and I figured for the last new episode of twenty twenty one, we should talk predictions for twenty twenty two. This is actually gonna be a pretty short episode because it's hard. It's always hard to predict tech full stop, Like whether you know it's a good year or a bad year, it's always tough to predict tech. In the era of a pandemic and semiconductor shortages and all that stuff, it has grown increasingly difficult to predict tech at least in any way that isn't like gloomy. So uh, this is also gonna be short because it is kind of a gloomy episode, and I apologize for that. It may just very well be a reflection of my own mental state as opposed to, you know, an actual vision of what will become. So take solace in that it could very well be then I am just being incredibly pessimistic with some of these predictions. Also, I should say like I have a pretty strong track record for not being right, So that should also be some comfort because I'm the guy who said that I was skeptical the iPad was ever going to be a hit. I thought it was gonna be a flop, and obviously I was completely wrong on that. So, you know, with that kind of bold prognosticating, I think we can all rest comfortably at the end of this episode, all right. I actually thought at first about making this sort of a wild and inaccurate predictions episode as a joke, you know, like predicting stuff like person an, old jet packs and all that kind of stuff. Except obviously that joke would get old within a minute, and then I would just have to keep doing it, you know, and commit to the joke until we had an episode on our hands, and that would be miserable. So to spare all of us us that, you know, terrible fate. Here's some basic predictions I think we'll see come to pass in twenty two, and I mentioned the semiconductor shortage. I think the semiconductor shortage will continue throughout next year. There are some tech analysts and some leaders who think that we might emerge from this shortage sometime in twenty twenty two, either by mid year or maybe late year, but I tend to be a bit more pessimistic about that. I agree with Intel's CEO Pat Gelsinger, who believes it will stretch into twenty twenty three. Now, there are a lot of companies out there that are rushing to build out production capable at these you know, manufacturing facilities, factories in other words, but those are still years out from coming online. Like that process is not fast, it's gonna take a long time. And again we're operating in a pandemic. Things like giant construction UH projects are hard to do. So also, chip production is just one part of this challenge. There's also the packaging side of the business. Most of the packaging happens in places like China, which receives the freshly produced semiconductors and then slaps them into packaging before they are shipped off. It is kind of crazy to think about how it is more economically viable to produce chips in one country, ship them to another country to be packaged, and then go off to go to warehouses around the world and stuff that that is actually cheaper than doing it all in the same country. But when you're talking about operating at scale, and when you're talking about countries that have uh not great worker practices. That's the way that kind of pans out. Anyway, The packaging part is another issue, right, Like, even if we ramp up production, we still have to have the other parts of this moving machine working. So it's possible that even should we see production capacity rise, will have a bottleneck in the packaging side of the chain. And then we have other general supply chain issues that we still have to deal with. And then there's the continuing uncertainty that just goes along with COVID in general. I suspect we will have moved beyond a macron sometime early in two at least I hope so. But then who knows what variant could be next. Like I would love to see COVID go from pandemic to endemic, uh, to have that shift happen in two and I really hope it happens. But you know, I had hoped it would happen by the end of twenty and here we are. So I'm sad to say I feel we won't see the other side of the semiconductor shortage in two UH, and that is going to affect numerous other industries. The computer and electronics industries are obviously going to be hit by this, but it also extends to other kinds of tech, including you know, automobiles. It might be a while before we start seeing super futuristic options available again, or even just you know, some of those cool options you saw on some of the higher end vehicles, things like really advanced entertainment systems and things like that. Some of that's gonna get scaled back because carmakers will have to kind of dial back a little bit in order to continue producing cars. Otherwise they may find out that their production quotas are held up because they don't have enough semiconductors to make these other, you know, tertiary systems alright. So that prediction in general is actually going to factor into a lot of other predictions I have. Uh. I like to look at other people who are making predictions as well and see what I think about them. One prediction I saw is from the chief Strategy Officer of lux Excel, person named Guido Gerert, who predicts that mixed reality glasses and other products in that that area are going to have a big year in two So these would be devices that tap into stuff like virtual reality and augmented reality experiences. Presumably these kinds of things would be really important for many of the proposed incarnations of a future metaverse, which obviously is in the hype cycle right now. I would love to see mixed reality headset really take off, but my prediction is they're gonna flop. Now. I hope I'm actually wrong about that. I, like I said, I want to see him succeed. I want to see them emerge from the niche market there in now. I mean, when Microsoft first started showing off the hollow lens a few years ago, I was really intrigued. But this technology has mostly been kept to the business sector. It's not like a consumer electronics product, and the stuff we have seen in the consumer space hasn't really established a considerable user base. I worry there aren't going to be nearly enough applications for this technology to really make it seem worthwhile to the average consumer. I mean, you're gonna have your early adopters. They'll rush out and get it. You'll have a few tech enthusiasts who are going to jump in there. I mean, I'm one of the people who actually owned a pair of Google glass, so I get that early adopter tech enthusiast thing. But unless there are some really compelling experiences and software that go along with the hardware, I don't think we're gonna see this catch on. Uh and even with really good applications, I still think this is an uphill battle. Folks have traditionally been a bit unimpressed or uninterested in headsets, from the failure of three D television to the relatively small VR gamer user base. I mean, I just feel like this is a tech that just isn't clicking with the mainstream, and without mainstream money, I'm not sure how many companies will stick around the mixed reality space for the long haul. Okay, but I do have one huge caveat to all of this. If Apple actually debuts it's rumored mixed reality headset this year, not necessarily offering it on sale, but at least showing it off, that might be enough to get the ball rolling, because Apple has proven a few times now that it can take a tech that has failed to hook the mainstream and then turn it around. Uh. That being said, it has been a while since Apple has done that, right. I mean, like they did it with the iPod, they did it with the iPhone, they did it with the iPad. Uh. They've done it to some extent with Matt computers, but it's been a while so UH. I don't know if Apple still has the same magic. But I would say that if anyone can get this thing moving in the right direction, that is getting people to adopt mixed reality, I would imagine Apple would be sort of the gateway. It'll also be incredibly expensive, but they might open up doors for others. I do think mixed reality has a valid place in technology. I think it's possible to make something really cool and exciting and useful. Uh. I saw potential in Google Glass, but that was a very early version of what I hope to see in the future. But I am skeptical that we're going to see any mixed reality headsets. Hardware software really established itself as a core technology in two at least not for the average person. I also mentioned the metaverse just then, and I feel like that's something else we're gonna hear some more hype about, but I don't expect that to work out anytime soon either. The computational power required to make a really robust, immersive and immense metaverse something that can support thousands or even tens of thousands of people being on at the same time. That's just something that we don't have. We don't have that computational power at our disposal, at least not on a scale that would be really impressive. And when you think about all the challenges involved, like building the tech foundation, figuring out what standards you want to use, like is your your system going to work with people who don't have say a VR setup, If it works with VR, is it going to work with all of them? Is it going to work with a subset of them? If it works with a subset, then you're automatically cutting out people who don't have that particular hardware. These are all, you know, basic problems that you have to tackle. You also have to support a coherent and persistent virtual landscape, and that might mean building in redundancy to handle issues like when the system might go down. We've seen a lot of issues with the Internet integrity in one. Obviously, you don't want the quote unquote future of the Internet to be unstable or unreliable. So these are really big engineering problems, made more complicated by the fact that at least most concepts of the metaverse include being in this very uh convincing and immersive experience. I mean that just requires a lot of of computer power. Now, it's I don't think that these problems are insurmountable, but I also think we're a long way from actually rising to meet the challenge. Not that we won't eventually do it, but that I don't think it's going to happen in two. I actually worry that if someone rushes out to try and get people excited in the idea and they release, you know, like an alpha version that is really stripped down, then the people who try it are probably gonna end up being disappointed when when they see what is actually possible is not measured up to what they thought was going to be possible what they were promised, which is essentially how people felt with VR back in the day. So I think the metaverse is just going to be a dud in two. I'm not saying it's never gonna happen. I just don't think we'll see any substantial progress next year. Now I could be totally wrong about that. And as to whether or not I think the metaverse is a good idea, I'm skeptical about that too. I worry that we're going to see a bunch of very wealthy, out of touch folks. Mark Zuckerberg head the design of virtual worlds that are gonna put the wealth and digital divides under an extremely bright spotlight. And I imagine accessing the metaverse whenever we do get one, is going to require some pretty hefty hardware and a really fast Internet connection, and that those requirements are going to cut off a substantial amount of the world's population. They will not be able to participate in this. And so what you end up with is potentially the tech elite playing a part in a world of digital conspicuous consumption, and no one else can participate. Honestly, if it's just conspicuous consumption, I'm okay with being left out. It'll just be gross. But that's what I think it's going to turn out to be. And again, I don't think we'll actually see that in two. All Right, we're gonna take a quick break when we come back a few more predictions. Something I do think we're gonna see in two this is not necessarily a good thing, is an explosion of tech in the healthcare space. You better believe there are tons of folks out there eyeing the medical world and looking for any angle they can exploit. So my guess is we're going to see a lot of startups taking aim at various aspects of healthcare and medicine. I mean that's already been the case, Like there's been a healthcare healthy if you will, healthcare tech sector for a long time. I think it's going to explode in Some of the startups are you know, kinda be good. They're gonna take aim at various aspects of medicine and make them better. But others I fear might fall more along the lines of Tharah no nos. You know, companies that tackle what turns out to be an impossible task. Uh. With Sarahs it was this idea of creating a desktop device that could test a micro drop of blood for hundreds of different potential signs of disease and conditions. Turned out that really wasn't viable. I'm worried we're gonna see a lot more of that because there's this tendency for folks to look at technology and see it as a general purpose solution that could fix any problem as long as you throw enough R and D and money at it. But as we've seen, that's not necessarily the case. Anyway, I'm certain by the end of two we will see a lot of companies that are a blend of tech and medicine. I hope more of them are helpful and fewer of them are a waste of time, money, and resources. And I really hope we don't see another case like Theoriness, which was a company that not only burnt through investment capital with nothing to really show for it, but in the process caused harm to innocent human beings who were relying on products or services from that company. Uh. That's the real tragedy of theiriness. I think two might be the year where we see companies actually put blockchain to an effective use. Maybe I don't think it's gonna be as grandiose as a fully fledged Web three, largely because no one's really nailed down what that's gonna look like. But some companies are bound to find at least some useful purpose for blockchain. Uh. This, by the way, is another story that frustrates me, because I think a lot of folks out there saw blockchain as again, kind of like a cure all solutions, sort of the way the cult of technology looks at tech. They think of blockchain and say that's our our, our solution, but they didn't define the problem that needed to be solved by blockchain, and that led to folks saying that blockchain could underpin all sorts of systems, but they never actually defined the first problem. So, in other words, this felt like a case where you have a solution and you're looking are a problem to fix that is not the best way to go about problem solving. In fact, it kind of reminds me of the as seen on TV type gadgets that I used to see on late night television, you know, back when I still watched television, and I'm pretty sure I heard some variation of it solves a problem you never even knew you had on those kinds of things, and a problem you don't know you have is usually not a problem at all. I mean, if you have a problem, usually you're aware of it. It's possible that you have some problems you're not aware of, But for this kind of stuff, yeah, you you kind of say like, oh, there's gotta be a better way to do this, and often this is not a better way, it's just a different way. Potentially you're actually making the process of dealing with whatever it is, you're doing more complicated, and you're incorporating a technology poorly. I feel that's how companies have been tackling blockchain. However, I do think we're gonna see at least some blockchain applications emerge in two that will be of actual use to companies. I still remain a bit skeptical over the whole concept of Web three, but I need to do a full episode about that. I will say there are a lot of extremely intelligent people, people smarter than I am, and some of whom might have a personal stake in the concept of Web three, so that creates a bit of bias. But there are a lot of smart people who say that is the way forward, Web three is the future. They might be right. I feel this is an area where my own lack of awareness and understanding could be coloring my prediction. I just haven't seen much there there, you know, like I haven't seen substance to this. It's a lot of notions, like the idea of a decentralized Internet where the people participating have ownership of the actual Internet, and it breaks the Internet free from giant monoliths like m is on in Google and Facebook, but I haven't actually seen, like how I hear what it's supposed to do, I haven't really seen how it's supposed to do it. Um, I have seen a lot of venture capitalists get really excited about it, and like Jack Dorsey, the former CEO of Twitter, said, it may very well be that you're just looking at not a decentralized Internet. It'll just be centralized in different you know, areas of power, namely the venture capitalists who are funding everything. But anyway, I very much doubt Web three is going to be a thing anytime soon, at least not in two But I also have to admit I need to do a ton more research into this topic. It's very possible I'm just not seeing the obvious here, and so I know that's a long way of saying I might be wrong, but like, and I need to couch all that because while I feel a lot of skepticism, I also have to admit there's a lack of knowledge there on my part, and that that you know, you can't just be skeptical skeptical of something just because you didn't bother to learn more about it. So I will do another episode, a full episode about Web three in the future. Once I get some time to really dive into it, I suspect we will see China take a harder regulatory stance in the tech industry. Within China, um Si Jinping has proven to be pretty proactive in reining in companies that get very large, very wealthy, very quickly. Now, whether that is to make sure the companies are not gonna balloon out of control or cause harm like, there's obviously the fear about collecting data, right, we see this this concern around the world, this idea of companies collecting enormous amounts of data about private individuals and how harmful that can be. Well, that's some of the reasoning behind the regulations in China. There are others who say that perhaps this is more about a play in keeping any entity from rivaling the power of the communist government in China, the idea that you don't want to create corporations so powerful that they hold sway over the government like you might in other countries. But the end result here is that a lot of companies in China, and tech companies in particular in China, have been hit with some heavy regulations this past year, and I expect that's going to continue. I also think that's going to convince more companies to follow in the footsteps of Yahoo, which pulled up stakes as far as doing business in China is concerned, I think we're gonna see more companies come to a similar conclusion that the revenues generated in China are not worth the price of doing business there. Okay, I've got a few more predictions to go through, but before we get to that, let's take another quick break. As we see countries commit to a move toward being carbon neutral or even carbon negative, I think we should also expect to see a lot of companies offer up products and services targeted at supporting those efforts. So I suspect in two we're gonna see lots of pushes to expand renewable energy capabilities, energy storage solutions, and similar implementations. I also worry about this a lot. Not because I think that renewable energy technology is a bad thing. I don't. I think it's a good thing. But the reason I worry is, once again, too many of us have this tendency to put a lot of faith in technology and then just assume that the problem has been fixed. I think that's a very dangerous mindset, and I worry about it. In fact, as a little anecdote, I remember, before it was a podcaster, I remember listening to a podcast about skepticism and critical thinking in which one of the hosts largely dismissed climate change concerns, essentially saying, we would engineer our way out of it, we would use technology to solve the problem. And I think that is an extremely dangerous response, and it ignores issues like holding people and companies accountable for how they contribute to climate change and carbon emissions. So I guess what I'm saying is that I do want to see more renewable energy solutions. I want to see a lot of that in two but I don't want us to let that serve as a smoke screen for companies and nations that are still dumping tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and contributing to climate change. Like we can't just say, oh, we made more solar panels, so everything's okay. Now, we have to take a bigger picture view of this, or else we're not really solving the problem. It's kind of the issue I have with a lot of of of carbon taxing and things of that nature, and carbon offsets. I feel like a lot of that ends up just being carte blanche for companies to continue to dump enormous amounts of carbon dioxide with the intent of capturing it in some way, but that falls to other people other places. Uh, it may just mean that that becomes a bottom line expense in a company ledger and nothing is actually done about it. And the fact is that, yeah, you might call it carbon capture or whatever, but if you're not actually doing it, then all you're really doing is shifting some money around and the world just keeps getting more polluted. So that's why I get on my high horse about that. Uh. One thing that we will definitely see more of in two This is such an obvious prediction that I almost didn't even put it in here, is that we're gonna see a lot more focus on cybersecurity. We're gonna see calls around the world to create regulations to boost cybersecurity practices and hold companies and organizations responsible for following cybersecurity best practices. Like I would not be surprised to see countries pass laws that say when a patch is released, like a security patch is released for a product that has a known vulnerability in it. The companies will have a maximum amount of time they're allowed before they have to implement the patch, or else they will be fined. I think that's gonna be a thing. I'm less convinced that we're gonna see something like that done in the United States. Um, even though we saw several high profile ransomware cases play out in the United States, I don't think we're gonna see a whole lot of movement in the US on this from a political standpoint, simply because the US is in the middle of a pretty dark era and there's increasing polarization between the left side of the political spectrum and the right side of the political spectrum, and the likelihood of reaching consensus on anything seems optimistic to the extreme because a lot of the energy seems to be dedicated toward demonizing the other side and less about getting stuff done. However, I really do hope we actually see real movement to make cybersecurity a top priority in all industries, because it is clear that the cyber attacks are not going to just stop, so we have to put that work in to fight against it. I think we're gonna see companies struggle to figure out what the new normal is. I think for a lot of people, there's now an expectation that having to go into the office is no longer a given requirement, that should not be part of the job. Necessarily for people who want to go sure, but I think a lot of folks say that should not be a requirement for all offices every there, and companies that push for employees to return to the office might find themselves struggling to attract and retain talent as folks migrate to other companies that are less adamant about office life, or they go and found their own businesses. Now, I don't think we're saying goodbye to offices everywhere. I don't think office culture is dead and gone, but I do think there's gonna be a pretty big shift, and obviously that will start to have an impact on things like office space in general. We haven't yet seen trends of massive office spaces going vacant in the sense that companies have actually pulled out of their lease and no one else has come in. We haven't really seen that trend yet. We've definitely seen the trend of empty offices. I mean, whenever I go to the office these days, I might see as many as two or three other people. I think on the busiest day I saw five. But otherwise, like, there have been several times where I've had to go into the office and I am the only on there, and I know that's not unusual, but again, we have that office space. I'm saying that in two we're going to see companies start to scale back on the amount of office space they actually have, that they won't need as much because they'll adopt a different approach to work. I'm not super confident about this prediction, however, because there might be a strong enough effort from companies to push back on that and get back to a return to commuting into work every day or at least a few times every week, that maybe that won't come to pass. However, another trend that I expect we will see continue in two is one that's being called the Great Resignation. UH. The United States Labor Department has been tracking the rate at which people have been quitting their jobs so before the pandemic, the number of people who are resigning, that is, quitting voluntarily as opposed to being encouraged to depart, which is just another way of saying getting canned. Uh that rate was around three and a half million people per month. Late this year, those numbers grew to more than four million people per month. Employers are posting more job openings, but there's a labor shortage at this point. Meanwhile, the folks who are left behind when someone quits are frequently burdened with extra work that can be demoralizing. That can then end up contributing to people who are left behind to say, you know what, I'm out of here too, And it becomes a vicious cycle and you start to see more and more people resign. Many of those resigning are older workers, and we're seeing larger numbers of them for an early retirement. Uh so they're not going to work for somewhere you know different, They're just they're just retiring. Early a third of all people who quit are saying they set out to start their own business, which is pretty incredible. I mean, thirty three of people resigning saying they want to go into business for themselves. I mean, it is a hustle culture out there. It's a lot of health hustle to have your own business. But then again, I mean, we've been training an entire generation of people to hustle. That's that's the way they get by, So maybe it's all going to work out. At the moment, workers have the leverage in this situation. It's more of a workers market than a company market, and I expect we will see that continue at least into the first half of twenty twenty two. And those are my predictions. Like I said, it's a little bit of a shorter episode. Didn't want to get too granular in this because, honestly, with COVID making such a huge impact, it's hard to make more granular predictions. Like I thought about predicting which video games would not come out in two and we get pushed into three, but then that starts to sound kind of ugly, and I didn't want to get ugly on this episode, not any uglier than I already did. I hope you out there all are having a lovely holiday season. I wish you all the best in two. I really hope my gloomy predictions are all wrong. I would love to come to the end of two and say, why twenty two rocked it so hard and I was so wrong. That would be a fantastic thing to have to do at the end of the year. Here's hoping. And if you have suggestions for topics I should cover in future episodes of tech Stuff, please reach out to me on Twitter. The handle for the show is text Stuff H s W and I'll talk to you again in the new year. Text Stuff is an I Heart Radio production. For more podcasts from my Heart Radio, visit the i Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.

Welcome to tech Stuff, a production from I Heart Radio. Hey there, and welcome to tech Stuff. I'm your host, Jonathan Strickland. I'm an executive producer with I Heart Radio, and I love all things tech, and I figured for the last new episode of twenty twenty one, we should talk predictions for twenty twenty two. This is actually gonna be a pretty short episode because it's hard. It's always hard to predict tech full stop, Like whether you know it's a good year or a bad year, it's always tough to predict tech. In the era of a pandemic and semiconductor shortages and all that stuff, it has grown increasingly difficult to predict tech at least in any way that isn't like gloomy. So uh, this is also gonna be short because it is kind of a gloomy episode, and I apologize for that. It may just very well be a reflection of my own mental state as opposed to, you know, an actual vision of what will become. So take solace in that it could very well be then I am just being incredibly pessimistic with some of these predictions. Also, I should say like I have a pretty strong track record for not being right, So that should also be some comfort because I'm the guy who said that I was skeptical the iPad was ever going to be a hit. I thought it was gonna be a flop, and obviously I was completely wrong on that. So, you know, with that kind of bold prognosticating, I think we can all rest comfortably at the end of this episode, all right. I actually thought at first about making this sort of a wild and inaccurate predictions episode as a joke, you know, like predicting stuff like person an, old jet packs and all that kind of stuff. Except obviously that joke would get old within a minute, and then I would just have to keep doing it, you know, and commit to the joke until we had an episode on our hands, and that would be miserable. So to spare all of us us that, you know, terrible fate. Here's some basic predictions I think we'll see come to pass in twenty two, and I mentioned the semiconductor shortage. I think the semiconductor shortage will continue throughout next year. There are some tech analysts and some leaders who think that we might emerge from this shortage sometime in twenty twenty two, either by mid year or maybe late year, but I tend to be a bit more pessimistic about that. I agree with Intel's CEO Pat Gelsinger, who believes it will stretch into twenty twenty three. Now, there are a lot of companies out there that are rushing to build out production capable at these you know, manufacturing facilities, factories in other words, but those are still years out from coming online. Like that process is not fast, it's gonna take a long time. And again we're operating in a pandemic. Things like giant construction UH projects are hard to do. So also, chip production is just one part of this challenge. There's also the packaging side of the business. Most of the packaging happens in places like China, which receives the freshly produced semiconductors and then slaps them into packaging before they are shipped off. It is kind of crazy to think about how it is more economically viable to produce chips in one country, ship them to another country to be packaged, and then go off to go to warehouses around the world and stuff that that is actually cheaper than doing it all in the same country. But when you're talking about operating at scale, and when you're talking about countries that have uh not great worker practices. That's the way that kind of pans out. Anyway, The packaging part is another issue, right, Like, even if we ramp up production, we still have to have the other parts of this moving machine working. So it's possible that even should we see production capacity rise, will have a bottleneck in the packaging side of the chain. And then we have other general supply chain issues that we still have to deal with. And then there's the continuing uncertainty that just goes along with COVID in general. I suspect we will have moved beyond a macron sometime early in two at least I hope so. But then who knows what variant could be next. Like I would love to see COVID go from pandemic to endemic, uh, to have that shift happen in two and I really hope it happens. But you know, I had hoped it would happen by the end of twenty and here we are. So I'm sad to say I feel we won't see the other side of the semiconductor shortage in two UH, and that is going to affect numerous other industries. The computer and electronics industries are obviously going to be hit by this, but it also extends to other kinds of tech, including you know, automobiles. It might be a while before we start seeing super futuristic options available again, or even just you know, some of those cool options you saw on some of the higher end vehicles, things like really advanced entertainment systems and things like that. Some of that's gonna get scaled back because carmakers will have to kind of dial back a little bit in order to continue producing cars. Otherwise they may find out that their production quotas are held up because they don't have enough semiconductors to make these other, you know, tertiary systems alright. So that prediction in general is actually going to factor into a lot of other predictions I have. Uh. I like to look at other people who are making predictions as well and see what I think about them. One prediction I saw is from the chief Strategy Officer of lux Excel, person named Guido Gerert, who predicts that mixed reality glasses and other products in that that area are going to have a big year in two So these would be devices that tap into stuff like virtual reality and augmented reality experiences. Presumably these kinds of things would be really important for many of the proposed incarnations of a future metaverse, which obviously is in the hype cycle right now. I would love to see mixed reality headset really take off, but my prediction is they're gonna flop. Now. I hope I'm actually wrong about that. I, like I said, I want to see him succeed. I want to see them emerge from the niche market there in now. I mean, when Microsoft first started showing off the hollow lens a few years ago, I was really intrigued. But this technology has mostly been kept to the business sector. It's not like a consumer electronics product, and the stuff we have seen in the consumer space hasn't really established a considerable user base. I worry there aren't going to be nearly enough applications for this technology to really make it seem worthwhile to the average consumer. I mean, you're gonna have your early adopters. They'll rush out and get it. You'll have a few tech enthusiasts who are going to jump in there. I mean, I'm one of the people who actually owned a pair of Google glass, so I get that early adopter tech enthusiast thing. But unless there are some really compelling experiences and software that go along with the hardware, I don't think we're gonna see this catch on. Uh and even with really good applications, I still think this is an uphill battle. Folks have traditionally been a bit unimpressed or uninterested in headsets, from the failure of three D television to the relatively small VR gamer user base. I mean, I just feel like this is a tech that just isn't clicking with the mainstream, and without mainstream money, I'm not sure how many companies will stick around the mixed reality space for the long haul. Okay, but I do have one huge caveat to all of this. If Apple actually debuts it's rumored mixed reality headset this year, not necessarily offering it on sale, but at least showing it off, that might be enough to get the ball rolling, because Apple has proven a few times now that it can take a tech that has failed to hook the mainstream and then turn it around. Uh. That being said, it has been a while since Apple has done that, right. I mean, like they did it with the iPod, they did it with the iPhone, they did it with the iPad. Uh. They've done it to some extent with Matt computers, but it's been a while so UH. I don't know if Apple still has the same magic. But I would say that if anyone can get this thing moving in the right direction, that is getting people to adopt mixed reality, I would imagine Apple would be sort of the gateway. It'll also be incredibly expensive, but they might open up doors for others. I do think mixed reality has a valid place in technology. I think it's possible to make something really cool and exciting and useful. Uh. I saw potential in Google Glass, but that was a very early version of what I hope to see in the future. But I am skeptical that we're going to see any mixed reality headsets. Hardware software really established itself as a core technology in two at least not for the average person. I also mentioned the metaverse just then, and I feel like that's something else we're gonna hear some more hype about, but I don't expect that to work out anytime soon either. The computational power required to make a really robust, immersive and immense metaverse something that can support thousands or even tens of thousands of people being on at the same time. That's just something that we don't have. We don't have that computational power at our disposal, at least not on a scale that would be really impressive. And when you think about all the challenges involved, like building the tech foundation, figuring out what standards you want to use, like is your your system going to work with people who don't have say a VR setup, If it works with VR, is it going to work with all of them? Is it going to work with a subset of them? If it works with a subset, then you're automatically cutting out people who don't have that particular hardware. These are all, you know, basic problems that you have to tackle. You also have to support a coherent and persistent virtual landscape, and that might mean building in redundancy to handle issues like when the system might go down. We've seen a lot of issues with the Internet integrity in one. Obviously, you don't want the quote unquote future of the Internet to be unstable or unreliable. So these are really big engineering problems, made more complicated by the fact that at least most concepts of the metaverse include being in this very uh convincing and immersive experience. I mean that just requires a lot of of computer power. Now, it's I don't think that these problems are insurmountable, but I also think we're a long way from actually rising to meet the challenge. Not that we won't eventually do it, but that I don't think it's going to happen in two. I actually worry that if someone rushes out to try and get people excited in the idea and they release, you know, like an alpha version that is really stripped down, then the people who try it are probably gonna end up being disappointed when when they see what is actually possible is not measured up to what they thought was going to be possible what they were promised, which is essentially how people felt with VR back in the day. So I think the metaverse is just going to be a dud in two. I'm not saying it's never gonna happen. I just don't think we'll see any substantial progress next year. Now I could be totally wrong about that. And as to whether or not I think the metaverse is a good idea, I'm skeptical about that too. I worry that we're going to see a bunch of very wealthy, out of touch folks. Mark Zuckerberg head the design of virtual worlds that are gonna put the wealth and digital divides under an extremely bright spotlight. And I imagine accessing the metaverse whenever we do get one, is going to require some pretty hefty hardware and a really fast Internet connection, and that those requirements are going to cut off a substantial amount of the world's population. They will not be able to participate in this. And so what you end up with is potentially the tech elite playing a part in a world of digital conspicuous consumption, and no one else can participate. Honestly, if it's just conspicuous consumption, I'm okay with being left out. It'll just be gross. But that's what I think it's going to turn out to be. And again, I don't think we'll actually see that in two. All Right, we're gonna take a quick break when we come back a few more predictions. Something I do think we're gonna see in two this is not necessarily a good thing, is an explosion of tech in the healthcare space. You better believe there are tons of folks out there eyeing the medical world and looking for any angle they can exploit. So my guess is we're going to see a lot of startups taking aim at various aspects of healthcare and medicine. I mean that's already been the case, Like there's been a healthcare healthy if you will, healthcare tech sector for a long time. I think it's going to explode in Some of the startups are you know, kinda be good. They're gonna take aim at various aspects of medicine and make them better. But others I fear might fall more along the lines of Tharah no nos. You know, companies that tackle what turns out to be an impossible task. Uh. With Sarahs it was this idea of creating a desktop device that could test a micro drop of blood for hundreds of different potential signs of disease and conditions. Turned out that really wasn't viable. I'm worried we're gonna see a lot more of that because there's this tendency for folks to look at technology and see it as a general purpose solution that could fix any problem as long as you throw enough R and D and money at it. But as we've seen, that's not necessarily the case. Anyway, I'm certain by the end of two we will see a lot of companies that are a blend of tech and medicine. I hope more of them are helpful and fewer of them are a waste of time, money, and resources. And I really hope we don't see another case like Theoriness, which was a company that not only burnt through investment capital with nothing to really show for it, but in the process caused harm to innocent human beings who were relying on products or services from that company. Uh. That's the real tragedy of theiriness. I think two might be the year where we see companies actually put blockchain to an effective use. Maybe I don't think it's gonna be as grandiose as a fully fledged Web three, largely because no one's really nailed down what that's gonna look like. But some companies are bound to find at least some useful purpose for blockchain. Uh. This, by the way, is another story that frustrates me, because I think a lot of folks out there saw blockchain as again, kind of like a cure all solutions, sort of the way the cult of technology looks at tech. They think of blockchain and say that's our our, our solution, but they didn't define the problem that needed to be solved by blockchain, and that led to folks saying that blockchain could underpin all sorts of systems, but they never actually defined the first problem. So, in other words, this felt like a case where you have a solution and you're looking are a problem to fix that is not the best way to go about problem solving. In fact, it kind of reminds me of the as seen on TV type gadgets that I used to see on late night television, you know, back when I still watched television, and I'm pretty sure I heard some variation of it solves a problem you never even knew you had on those kinds of things, and a problem you don't know you have is usually not a problem at all. I mean, if you have a problem, usually you're aware of it. It's possible that you have some problems you're not aware of, But for this kind of stuff, yeah, you you kind of say like, oh, there's gotta be a better way to do this, and often this is not a better way, it's just a different way. Potentially you're actually making the process of dealing with whatever it is, you're doing more complicated, and you're incorporating a technology poorly. I feel that's how companies have been tackling blockchain. However, I do think we're gonna see at least some blockchain applications emerge in two that will be of actual use to companies. I still remain a bit skeptical over the whole concept of Web three, but I need to do a full episode about that. I will say there are a lot of extremely intelligent people, people smarter than I am, and some of whom might have a personal stake in the concept of Web three, so that creates a bit of bias. But there are a lot of smart people who say that is the way forward, Web three is the future. They might be right. I feel this is an area where my own lack of awareness and understanding could be coloring my prediction. I just haven't seen much there there, you know, like I haven't seen substance to this. It's a lot of notions, like the idea of a decentralized Internet where the people participating have ownership of the actual Internet, and it breaks the Internet free from giant monoliths like m is on in Google and Facebook, but I haven't actually seen, like how I hear what it's supposed to do, I haven't really seen how it's supposed to do it. Um, I have seen a lot of venture capitalists get really excited about it, and like Jack Dorsey, the former CEO of Twitter, said, it may very well be that you're just looking at not a decentralized Internet. It'll just be centralized in different you know, areas of power, namely the venture capitalists who are funding everything. But anyway, I very much doubt Web three is going to be a thing anytime soon, at least not in two But I also have to admit I need to do a ton more research into this topic. It's very possible I'm just not seeing the obvious here, and so I know that's a long way of saying I might be wrong, but like, and I need to couch all that because while I feel a lot of skepticism, I also have to admit there's a lack of knowledge there on my part, and that that you know, you can't just be skeptical skeptical of something just because you didn't bother to learn more about it. So I will do another episode, a full episode about Web three in the future. Once I get some time to really dive into it, I suspect we will see China take a harder regulatory stance in the tech industry. Within China, um Si Jinping has proven to be pretty proactive in reining in companies that get very large, very wealthy, very quickly. Now, whether that is to make sure the companies are not gonna balloon out of control or cause harm like, there's obviously the fear about collecting data, right, we see this this concern around the world, this idea of companies collecting enormous amounts of data about private individuals and how harmful that can be. Well, that's some of the reasoning behind the regulations in China. There are others who say that perhaps this is more about a play in keeping any entity from rivaling the power of the communist government in China, the idea that you don't want to create corporations so powerful that they hold sway over the government like you might in other countries. But the end result here is that a lot of companies in China, and tech companies in particular in China, have been hit with some heavy regulations this past year, and I expect that's going to continue. I also think that's going to convince more companies to follow in the footsteps of Yahoo, which pulled up stakes as far as doing business in China is concerned, I think we're gonna see more companies come to a similar conclusion that the revenues generated in China are not worth the price of doing business there. Okay, I've got a few more predictions to go through, but before we get to that, let's take another quick break. As we see countries commit to a move toward being carbon neutral or even carbon negative, I think we should also expect to see a lot of companies offer up products and services targeted at supporting those efforts. So I suspect in two we're gonna see lots of pushes to expand renewable energy capabilities, energy storage solutions, and similar implementations. I also worry about this a lot. Not because I think that renewable energy technology is a bad thing. I don't. I think it's a good thing. But the reason I worry is, once again, too many of us have this tendency to put a lot of faith in technology and then just assume that the problem has been fixed. I think that's a very dangerous mindset, and I worry about it. In fact, as a little anecdote, I remember, before it was a podcaster, I remember listening to a podcast about skepticism and critical thinking in which one of the hosts largely dismissed climate change concerns, essentially saying, we would engineer our way out of it, we would use technology to solve the problem. And I think that is an extremely dangerous response, and it ignores issues like holding people and companies accountable for how they contribute to climate change and carbon emissions. So I guess what I'm saying is that I do want to see more renewable energy solutions. I want to see a lot of that in two but I don't want us to let that serve as a smoke screen for companies and nations that are still dumping tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and contributing to climate change. Like we can't just say, oh, we made more solar panels, so everything's okay. Now, we have to take a bigger picture view of this, or else we're not really solving the problem. It's kind of the issue I have with a lot of of of carbon taxing and things of that nature, and carbon offsets. I feel like a lot of that ends up just being carte blanche for companies to continue to dump enormous amounts of carbon dioxide with the intent of capturing it in some way, but that falls to other people other places. Uh, it may just mean that that becomes a bottom line expense in a company ledger and nothing is actually done about it. And the fact is that, yeah, you might call it carbon capture or whatever, but if you're not actually doing it, then all you're really doing is shifting some money around and the world just keeps getting more polluted. So that's why I get on my high horse about that. Uh. One thing that we will definitely see more of in two This is such an obvious prediction that I almost didn't even put it in here, is that we're gonna see a lot more focus on cybersecurity. We're gonna see calls around the world to create regulations to boost cybersecurity practices and hold companies and organizations responsible for following cybersecurity best practices. Like I would not be surprised to see countries pass laws that say when a patch is released, like a security patch is released for a product that has a known vulnerability in it. The companies will have a maximum amount of time they're allowed before they have to implement the patch, or else they will be fined. I think that's gonna be a thing. I'm less convinced that we're gonna see something like that done in the United States. Um, even though we saw several high profile ransomware cases play out in the United States, I don't think we're gonna see a whole lot of movement in the US on this from a political standpoint, simply because the US is in the middle of a pretty dark era and there's increasing polarization between the left side of the political spectrum and the right side of the political spectrum, and the likelihood of reaching consensus on anything seems optimistic to the extreme because a lot of the energy seems to be dedicated toward demonizing the other side and less about getting stuff done. However, I really do hope we actually see real movement to make cybersecurity a top priority in all industries, because it is clear that the cyber attacks are not going to just stop, so we have to put that work in to fight against it. I think we're gonna see companies struggle to figure out what the new normal is. I think for a lot of people, there's now an expectation that having to go into the office is no longer a given requirement, that should not be part of the job. Necessarily for people who want to go sure, but I think a lot of folks say that should not be a requirement for all offices every there, and companies that push for employees to return to the office might find themselves struggling to attract and retain talent as folks migrate to other companies that are less adamant about office life, or they go and found their own businesses. Now, I don't think we're saying goodbye to offices everywhere. I don't think office culture is dead and gone, but I do think there's gonna be a pretty big shift, and obviously that will start to have an impact on things like office space in general. We haven't yet seen trends of massive office spaces going vacant in the sense that companies have actually pulled out of their lease and no one else has come in. We haven't really seen that trend yet. We've definitely seen the trend of empty offices. I mean, whenever I go to the office these days, I might see as many as two or three other people. I think on the busiest day I saw five. But otherwise, like, there have been several times where I've had to go into the office and I am the only on there, and I know that's not unusual, but again, we have that office space. I'm saying that in two we're going to see companies start to scale back on the amount of office space they actually have, that they won't need as much because they'll adopt a different approach to work. I'm not super confident about this prediction, however, because there might be a strong enough effort from companies to push back on that and get back to a return to commuting into work every day or at least a few times every week, that maybe that won't come to pass. However, another trend that I expect we will see continue in two is one that's being called the Great Resignation. UH. The United States Labor Department has been tracking the rate at which people have been quitting their jobs so before the pandemic, the number of people who are resigning, that is, quitting voluntarily as opposed to being encouraged to depart, which is just another way of saying getting canned. Uh that rate was around three and a half million people per month. Late this year, those numbers grew to more than four million people per month. Employers are posting more job openings, but there's a labor shortage at this point. Meanwhile, the folks who are left behind when someone quits are frequently burdened with extra work that can be demoralizing. That can then end up contributing to people who are left behind to say, you know what, I'm out of here too, And it becomes a vicious cycle and you start to see more and more people resign. Many of those resigning are older workers, and we're seeing larger numbers of them for an early retirement. Uh so they're not going to work for somewhere you know different, They're just they're just retiring. Early a third of all people who quit are saying they set out to start their own business, which is pretty incredible. I mean, thirty three of people resigning saying they want to go into business for themselves. I mean, it is a hustle culture out there. It's a lot of health hustle to have your own business. But then again, I mean, we've been training an entire generation of people to hustle. That's that's the way they get by, So maybe it's all going to work out. At the moment, workers have the leverage in this situation. It's more of a workers market than a company market, and I expect we will see that continue at least into the first half of twenty twenty two. And those are my predictions. Like I said, it's a little bit of a shorter episode. Didn't want to get too granular in this because, honestly, with COVID making such a huge impact, it's hard to make more granular predictions. Like I thought about predicting which video games would not come out in two and we get pushed into three, but then that starts to sound kind of ugly, and I didn't want to get ugly on this episode, not any uglier than I already did. I hope you out there all are having a lovely holiday season. I wish you all the best in two. I really hope my gloomy predictions are all wrong. I would love to come to the end of two and say, why twenty two rocked it so hard and I was so wrong. That would be a fantastic thing to have to do at the end of the year. Here's hoping. And if you have suggestions for topics I should cover in future episodes of tech Stuff, please reach out to me on Twitter. The handle for the show is text Stuff H s W and I'll talk to you again in the new year. Text Stuff is an I Heart Radio production. For more podcasts from my Heart Radio, visit the i Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.