In this episode, Bill speaks with Senior Energy Economist Moutaz Altaghlibi about how the Iran conflict is affecting global energy markets, and whether Europe faces the risk of a new energy crisis. They explore why oil prices have remained relatively contained, but why gas poses a far bigger threat to European inflation and growth. Finally, they discuss how Europe’s improved energy resilience will shape the outlook in the months ahead.

(00:00:00) Introduction & Welcome

(00:02:00) Context: The Iran War & Its Timing

(00:04:30) Current State of Energy Flows: Strait of Hormuz

(00:08:00) Who Depends on This Energy? Asia vs. Europe

(00:11:00) Market Reaction: Oil & Gas Prices So Far

(00:14:00) Oil Market Context: OPEC Cuts & Pre-Conflict Surplus

(00:17:00) Oil Price Scenarios & Inflation Impact

(00:20:30) Shifting Focus to Gas: Lessons from the 2022 Energy Crisis

(00:24:00) Europe's Gas Storage Levels Today

(00:27:30) Worst-Case Gas Price Scenarios

(00:31:00) Macro Impact: Inflation, Second-Round Effects & the ECB

(00:34:30) Consumer Confidence & Household Spending Risk

(00:36:00) Cushioning Factors: China, Renewables & Diversification

(00:40:00) What's on Our Radar: Carbon Pricing & German Defence Spending

(00:43:30) Closing Remarks

In this episode, Bill speaks with Senior Energy Economist Moutaz Altaghlibi about how the Iran conflict is affecting global energy markets, and whether Europe faces the risk of a new energy crisis. They explore why oil prices have remained relatively contained, but why gas poses a far bigger threat to European inflation and growth. Finally, they discuss how Europe&rsquo;s improved energy resilience will shape the outlook in the months ahead.
(00:00:00) Introduction &amp; Welcome
(00:02:00) Context: The Iran War &amp; Its Timing
(00:04:30) Current State of Energy Flows: Strait of Hormuz
(00:08:00) Who Depends on This Energy? Asia vs. Europe
(00:11:00) Market Reaction: Oil &amp; Gas Prices So Far
(00:14:00) Oil Market Context: OPEC Cuts &amp; Pre-Conflict Surplus
(00:17:00) Oil Price Scenarios &amp; Inflation Impact
(00:20:30) Shifting Focus to Gas: Lessons from the 2022 Energy Crisis
(00:24:00) Europe's Gas Storage Levels Today
(00:27:30) Worst-Case Gas Price Scenarios
(00:31:00) Macro Impact: Inflation, Second-Round Effects &amp; the ECB
(00:34:30) Consumer Confidence &amp; Household Spending Risk
(00:36:00) Cushioning Factors: China, Renewables &amp; Diversification
(00:40:00) What's on Our Radar: Carbon Pricing &amp; German Defence Spending
(00:43:30) Closing Remarks

This is Talking Macro, ABN AMRO's podcast dedicated to making sense of the global economy from a European perspective. Hosted by Bill Diviney, Head of Macro Research at ABN AMRO, each episode breaks down the hot topics shaping markets and economies worldwide.

Whether you're an investor, business professional, or simply curious about how global economic forces affect your daily life, Talking Macro delivers accessible insights into complex macroeconomic trends. From Federal Reserve policy and currency movements to trade tensions and regional economic developments, we explore how these seemingly distant events impact everything from your mortgage rates to your investment portfolio.

Each month, Bill is joined by expert colleagues from ABN AMRO's research team who bring deep specialist knowledge on specific regions and topics. Together, they cut through the noise to explain what's really driving economic change and what it means for the months ahead.

Talking Macro isn't just about theory, it's about understanding the real-world implications of economic policy and market movements, whether you're in Amsterdam, New York, or anywhere in between.

New episodes monthly on all major podcast platforms.

This is Talking Macro, ABN AMRO's podcast dedicated to making sense of the global economy from a European perspective. Hosted by Bill Diviney, Head of Macro Research at ABN AMRO, each episode breaks down the hot topics shaping markets and economies worldwide.
Whether you're an investor, business professional, or simply curious about how global economic forces affect your daily life, Talking Macro delivers accessible insights into complex macroeconomic trends. From Federal Reserve policy and currency movements to trade tensions and regional economic developments,&nbsp;we explore how these seemingly distant events impact everything from your mortgage rates to your investment portfolio.
Each month, Bill is joined by expert colleagues from ABN AMRO's research team who bring deep specialist knowledge on specific regions and topics. Together, they cut through the noise to explain what's really driving economic change and what it means for the months ahead.
Talking Macro isn't just about theory, it's about understanding the real-world implications of economic policy and market movements, whether you're in Amsterdam, New York, or anywhere in between.
New episodes monthly on all major podcast platforms.

Talking Macro

The is Talking Macro, ABN AMRO's podcast dedicated to making sense of the global economy from a European perspective. Hosted by Bill Diviney, Head of Macro Research at ABN AMRO, each episode breaks down the hot topics shaping markets and economies worldwide.

Whether you're an investor, business professional, or simply curious about how global economic forces affect your daily life, Talking Macro delivers accessible insights into complex macroeconomic trends. From Federal Reserve policy and currency movements to trade tensions and regional economic developments, we explore how these seemingly distant events impact everything from your mortgage rates to your investment portfolio.

Each month, Bill is joined by expert colleagues from ABN AMRO's research team who bring deep specialist knowledge on specific regions and topics. Together, they cut through the noise to explain what's really driving economic change and what it means for the months ahead.

Talking Macro isn't just about theory, it's about understanding the real-world implications of economic policy and market movements, whether you're in Amsterdam, New York, or anywhere in between.

New episodes monthly on all major podcast platforms.

The&nbsp;is Talking Macro, ABN AMRO's podcast dedicated to making sense of the global economy from a European perspective. Hosted by Bill Diviney, Head of Macro Research at ABN AMRO, each episode breaks down the hot topics shaping markets and economies worldwide.
Whether you're an investor, business professional, or simply curious about how global economic forces affect your daily life, Talking Macro delivers accessible insights into complex macroeconomic trends. From Federal Reserve policy and currency movements to trade tensions and regional economic developments,&nbsp;we explore how these seemingly distant events impact everything from your mortgage rates to your investment portfolio.
Each month, Bill is joined by expert colleagues from ABN AMRO's research team who bring deep specialist knowledge on specific regions and topics. Together, they cut through the noise to explain what's really driving economic change and what it means for the months ahead.
Talking Macro isn't just about theory, it's about understanding the real-world implications of economic policy and market movements, whether you're in Amsterdam, New York, or anywhere in between.
New episodes monthly on all major podcast platforms.