Will you still be driving an internal combustion engine vehicle in 2040? Maybe. 



This week on Switched On we talk to David Doherty, a BNEF senior analyst specializing in oil demand analysis. Today on the show he'll make the case that despite all the EVs and trucks getting out on the road, oil demand and CO2 emissions in 2040 from transport will be largely flat from today. Transport demand in developing economies, as well as growing demand for things -- think of it as the Amazon effect -- will be the main drivers. 



David gets right to the point of how this scenario plays out and the factors contributing to it. 



Switched On is hosted this week by Mark Taylor and Dana Perkins.

Will you still be driving an internal combustion engine vehicle in 2040? Maybe.  This week on Switched On we talk to David Doherty, a BNEF senior analyst specializing in oil demand analysis. Today on the show he'll make the case that despite all the EVs and trucks getting out on the road, oil demand and CO2 emissions in 2040 from transport will be largely flat from today. Transport demand in developing economies, as well as growing demand for things -- think of it as the Amazon effect -- will be the main drivers.  David gets right to the point of how this scenario plays out and the factors contributing to it.  Switched On is hosted this week by Mark Taylor and Dana Perkins.

The future of energy, transport, sustainability and more, as told by BNEF analysts. Each week, Dana Perkins and Tom Rowlands-Rees sit down with BloombergNEF (BNEF) analysts to uncover the key findings and stories behind their latest research.

The future of energy, transport, sustainability and more, as told by BNEF analysts. Each week, Dana Perkins and Tom Rowlands-Rees sit down with BloombergNEF (BNEF) analysts to uncover the key findings and stories behind their latest research.

The future of energy, transport, sustainability and more from Bloomberg analysts

Switched On

Oil Demand for Transport: Stronger for Longer

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/83420134-3a12-4bfd-8b89-ae3c0015ba73/transcript

The UK’s latest budget sends mixed consequential signals for electric vehicles. A sharp increase in purchase subsidies is paired with plans for a new pay-per-mile charge, reshaping the economics of EV ownership as adoption accelerates. The changes could affect drivers very differently, depending on mileage, charging access and whether vehicles are privately owned or part of company fleets. As fuel tax revenues fade and public charging costs stay high, the UK is testing what it means to move from encouraging EV uptake to living with electric mobility at scale. On today’s show, Kamala Schelling is joined by Madeleine Brolly from BNEF’s EV charging team and Shananthan Kalaichelvan from BNEF’s EV team, to discuss their Analyst Reaction “UK Makes EVs Cheaper to Buy But More Expensive to Run.”

Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com

Links to research notes from this episode:

UK Makes EVs Cheaper to Buy But More Expensive to Run: React - https://www.bnef.com/analyst-reactions/t6drndt9njlw00

The UK&rsquo;s latest budget sends mixed consequential signals for electric vehicles. A sharp increase in purchase subsidies is paired with plans for a new pay-per-mile charge, reshaping the economics of EV ownership as adoption accelerates. The changes could affect drivers very differently, depending on mileage, charging access and whether vehicles are privately owned or part of company fleets. As fuel tax revenues fade and public charging costs stay high, the UK is testing what it means to move from encouraging EV uptake to living with electric mobility at scale. On today&rsquo;s show, Kamala Schelling is joined by Madeleine Brolly from BNEF&rsquo;s EV charging team and Shananthan Kalaichelvan from BNEF&rsquo;s EV team, to discuss their Analyst Reaction &ldquo;UK Makes EVs Cheaper to Buy But More Expensive to Run.&rdquo;
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF&lt;GO&gt; on the Bloomberg Terminal or on <a href="https://www.bnef.com/">bnef.com</a>
Links to research notes from this episode:
UK Makes EVs Cheaper to Buy But More Expensive to Run: React - <a href="https://www.bnef.com/analyst-reactions/t6drndt9njlw00">https://www.bnef.com/analyst-reactions/t6drndt9njlw00</a>

Pay-Per-Mile Comes to UK EVs: Analyst Reaction

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/9cd6cfed-f1a9-4d2a-896a-b3bb01209d9f/transcript

Global metals markets are shifting faster than anyone expected. Once projected to face widespread shortages, most key energy transition metals now show far more balanced outlooks. Surpluses are pushing battery metal prices down and accelerating the adoption of new chemistries, while demand for steel, copper and aluminum strengthens across clean energy infrastructure. Yet slow mine development, production caps, and rising geopolitical risks are creating new uncertainties. From batteries to transmission lines to electric-vehicle bodies, what do these changing metals dynamics mean for the future of the energy transition? On today’s show, Tom Rowands-Rees is joined by Kwasi Ampofo, BloombergNEF’s head of metals and mining, to discuss findings from the “Transition Metals Outlook 2025.”

Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com

Links to research notes from this episode:

Transition Metals Outlook 2025 - https://www.bnef.com/insights/38151

Global metals markets are shifting faster than anyone expected. Once projected to face widespread shortages, most key energy transition metals now show far more balanced outlooks. Surpluses are pushing battery metal prices down and accelerating the adoption of new chemistries, while demand for steel, copper and aluminum strengthens across clean energy infrastructure. Yet slow mine development, production caps, and rising geopolitical risks are creating new uncertainties. From batteries to transmission lines to electric-vehicle bodies, what do these changing metals dynamics mean for the future of the energy transition? On today&rsquo;s show, Tom Rowands-Rees is joined by Kwasi Ampofo, BloombergNEF&rsquo;s head of metals and mining, to discuss findings from the &ldquo;Transition Metals Outlook 2025.&rdquo;
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF&lt;GO&gt; on the Bloomberg Terminal or on <a href="https://www.bnef.com/">bnef.com</a>
Links to research notes from this episode:
Transition Metals Outlook 2025 - <a href="https://www.bnef.com/insights/38151">https://www.bnef.com/insights/38151</a>

Surplus for Many, Strain for a Few Transition Metals

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/1cc08c29-36ff-4fdf-8dda-b3b700bda357/transcript

Heavy industry faces one of the hardest paths to net zero, yet momentum is starting to build. New decarbonization commitments reached nearly $15 billion by mid-2025. The largest chunk of investment is concentrated in the steel industry, where electric arc furnaces and hydrogen-ready technologies are already pushing down emissions. Other sectors, like aluminum, cement and plastics, are experimenting with recycled materials, electrified heat and bio-based feedstocks. Policy is also proving decisive, with Europe, Australia and Asia pushing carbon border tariffs, retrofit funds and industrial carbon markets. So is heavy industry finally turning a corner on its path to decarbonization? On today’s show, Kobad Bhavnagri is joined by Allen Tom Abraham, BloombergNEF’s head of sustainable materials, to walk through his team’s note “Industrial Decarbonization Market Outlook 2H 2025.”

Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com

Links to research notes from this episode:

Industrial Decarbonization Market Outlook 2H 2025 - https://www.bnef.com/insights/38051/view

Heavy industry faces one of the hardest paths to net zero, yet momentum is starting to build. New decarbonization commitments reached nearly $15 billion by mid-2025. The largest chunk of investment is concentrated in the steel industry, where electric arc furnaces and hydrogen-ready technologies are already pushing down emissions. Other sectors, like aluminum, cement and plastics, are experimenting with recycled materials, electrified heat and bio-based feedstocks. Policy is also proving decisive, with Europe, Australia and Asia pushing carbon border tariffs, retrofit funds and industrial carbon markets. So is heavy industry finally turning a corner on its path to decarbonization? On today&rsquo;s show, Kobad Bhavnagri is joined by Allen Tom Abraham, BloombergNEF&rsquo;s head of sustainable materials, to walk through his team&rsquo;s note &ldquo;Industrial Decarbonization Market Outlook 2H 2025.&rdquo;
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF&lt;GO&gt; on the Bloomberg Terminal or on <a href="https://www.bnef.com/">bnef.com</a>
Links to research notes from this episode:
Industrial Decarbonization Market Outlook 2H 2025 - <a href="https://www.bnef.com/insights/38051/view">https://www.bnef.com/insights/38051/view</a>

Heavy Industry’s Bumpy Path to a Low-Carbon Future

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/437eb2ac-8997-4266-b871-b3af015cc672/transcript

Oil Demand for Transport: Stronger for Longer

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