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Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open with a thesis worth marking on a calendar: the next two weeks may be the most consequential stretch of the campaign. Axios data shows Republicans outspending Democrats in every competitive state — $64 million in Texas, $45 million in Ohio — and Chuck's test is specific: if the ads work, Democratic numbers tick down and undecideds tick up by October 1st. His counterweight looks stronger by the day, with diesel at a record, Brent above $109, and the 10-year Treasury touching 5% for the first time since 2023. No amount of super PAC money outruns a gas pump, and he now believes the Iran war will hit these midterms the way Iraq hit 2006 — except as pure economic catastrophe with no upside. Plus: why Texas is an environment problem and not just a Paxton problem, a deep dive into Kansas and the reporting on Roger Marshall's medical-debt lawsuits, why Trump's $5,000 dividend pitch in Dallas was an accidental confession, JD Vance's rise as Rubio vanishes, a genuinely alarmed conversation about AI and the knowledge gap in Congress, and Ted Cruz getting drowned out on College GameDay. 

Timeline:

00:00 The late-money avalanche & why these two weeks decide everything

10:00 $6 diesel, a bond market on fire & the Iran war as this cycle's Iraq

18:00 Texas, Florida & the rescue mission for Ken Paxton

24:00 Kansas: the debate, the medical-debt story & why Marshall is vulnerable

34:00 Forced pairs — who flips first across Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and Alaska

40:00 The Dallas convention: Vance rising, Rubio missing, Trump promising checks

46:00 AI, the knowledge gap in Congress & a leadership vacuum

56:00 Ted Cruz gets booed, and the case against the college sports bill

66:00 Week one signal vs. noise, monkey picks & the top five

Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open with a thesis worth marking on a calendar: the next two weeks may be the most consequential stretch of the campaign. Axios data shows Republicans outspending Democrats in every competitive state &mdash; $64 million in Texas, $45 million in Ohio &mdash; and Chuck's test is specific: if the ads work, Democratic numbers tick down and undecideds tick up by October 1st. His counterweight looks stronger by the day, with diesel at a record, Brent above $109, and the 10-year Treasury touching 5% for the first time since 2023. No amount of super PAC money outruns a gas pump, and he now believes the Iran war will hit these midterms the way Iraq hit 2006 &mdash; except as pure economic catastrophe with no upside. Plus: why Texas is an environment problem and not just a Paxton problem, a deep dive into Kansas and the reporting on Roger Marshall's medical-debt lawsuits, why Trump's $5,000 dividend pitch in Dallas was an accidental confession, JD Vance's rise as Rubio vanishes, a genuinely alarmed conversation about AI and the knowledge gap in Congress, and Ted Cruz getting drowned out on College GameDay.&nbsp;
Timeline:
00:00 The late-money avalanche &amp; why these two weeks decide everything
10:00 $6 diesel, a bond market on fire &amp; the Iran war as this cycle's Iraq
18:00 Texas, Florida &amp; the rescue mission for Ken Paxton
24:00 Kansas: the debate, the medical-debt story &amp; why Marshall is vulnerable
34:00 Forced pairs &mdash; who flips first across Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and Alaska
40:00 The Dallas convention: Vance rising, Rubio missing, Trump promising checks
46:00 AI, the knowledge gap in Congress &amp; a leadership vacuum
56:00 Ted Cruz gets booed, and the case against the college sports bill
66:00 Week one signal vs. noise, monkey picks &amp; the top five

Longtime political analysts Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd discuss the latest political news and how those stories will affect upcoming elections. 

Longtime political analysts Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd discuss the latest political news and how those stories will affect upcoming elections.&nbsp;

Super Tuesdays with Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd

The Iran War Is This Election Cycle's IRAQ For Republicans… But WORSE

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/21e58d41-cd4e-4412-9a09-b4c5017e8716/transcript

The Chuck ToddCast is back! If you're looking for smart, no-nonsense political conversation, you've come to the right place. The Chuck ToddCast goes beyond the headlines, featuring conversations with top reporters, insiders, and newsmakers from D.C. to the heartland. No scripts, no spin—just real discussions about what’s shaping our politics and why it matters.

The Chuck ToddCast

Eight Tuesdays out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on the first midterm convention in modern American history — two nights at Dallas's American Airlines Center with 109 speakers, Trump appearing both nights, and House members getting billed $25,000 to attend. The guys are skeptical of nearly all of it: the event lands on NFL kickoff night, it butts up against the 25th anniversary of September 11th, and Politico found 45 of 70 Republican candidates and members skipping it. Their sharper point is that the whole thing is a microcosm of the party's bind — you cannot win without the MAGA base, and you cannot win with only the MAGA base — which is why swing-state nominees like Jon Husted and Mike Rogers will show up and try very hard to deliver a forgettable speech. Chuck argues nationalizing the election isn't crazy on its own terms, since the other side is going to run against Trump anyway, but doubts Trump can hit any register besides red meat, and doubts even more that he can find a second gear for the September 11th anniversary the following day.

From there they dig into Texas, where MAGA Inc's first $10 million buy is running a half-negative, half-positive ad about taxes — a signal, Chuck says, that they know the target is suburban Romney Republicans, not the base. He walks through Greg Abbott's steadily declining margins, the four-to-eight-point scandal penalty that history says attaches to a candidate like Paxton, and lands somewhere that surprises Chris: he now likes Talarico's odds better than Sherrod Brown's in Ohio. They check the prediction markets, unpack the Missouri Supreme Court ruling that blocked the Republican-drawn map and effectively hands Emanuel Cleaver his seat back, and take apart Trump's request that the Supreme Court impose a national check on mail voting — a policy every Republican strategist will tell you privately hurts their own side. Then a long, unsparing conversation about the Wall Street Journal's reporting on John Fetterman and what it means for control of the Senate on January 3rd, a real case for a third Senate conference built around Murkowski and a possible independent, and a closing riff on Nick Saban, Pat McAfee, and why the Protect College Sports Act is doomed without collective bargaining.

 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Eight Tuesdays out — and why they actually prepare for these now

03:00 The first midterm convention since the early '80s 

04:00 $25,000 a head, and Tim Burchett's surprise invoice

05:00 It lands on the opening night of the NFL season

07:00 The Trump trap — you can't afford to say no

08:00 Nationalizing the election isn't the crazy part

11:00 The convention as a microcosm of the GOP's whole problem

13:00 "Trumpapalooza" — so what's the actual message?

14:00 Conventions aren't for swing voters, and never have been

16:00 Husted, Rogers & the art of the deliberately forgettable speech

19:00 Trump as TV producer — and the 9/11 anniversary the next day

20:00 Will he turn the 25th anniversary into a political speech?

23:00 MAGA Inc's first $10M buy lands in Texas

26:00 They tried calling Talarico weird. It didn't take.

27:00 Trump throws Paxton under the bus in the Oval

29:00 Abbott's slipping margins and the blue tsunami scenario

31:00 South Texas Latinos appear to be shifting back

33:00 Clinton lost Texas by less than she lost Iowa in 2016

34:00 Blue-collar trade unions and the industrial Midwest problem

38:00 Trump asks the Supreme Court for a national mail-voting check

39:00 The rural voters his own rule would punish hardest

42:00 Democrats at 85-88% to take the House

43:00 The Missouri ruling

46:00 Why this is anti-voter, full stop

47:00 The Senate sits at 52-48 Republican. A year ago it was 71-29.

49:00 Alaska, and Dan Sullivan's troubling primary numbers

51:00 The Wall Street Journal's Fetterman story

54:00 The practical stakes: who controls the Senate on January 3rd

55:00 Does Fetterman leave the party?

58:00 He's already built the intellectual case for walking

1:00:00 January 3rd is the whole ballgame

1:02:00 Osborn, Bodner, Banks and the independent wave

1:03:00 The real case for a third Senate conference

1:05:00 Saban and McAfee push the Protect College Sports Act

1:07:00 No labor at the table means it dies in court

1:08:00 Ashley Moody's quiet ACC poison pill

1:12:00 The Nats chase the blown-save record. Sell the team.

1:13:00 Dynastic: Finebaum on why Alabama may not run it back

Eight Tuesdays out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on the first midterm convention in modern American history &mdash; two nights at Dallas's American Airlines Center with 109 speakers, Trump appearing both nights, and House members getting billed $25,000 to attend. The guys are skeptical of nearly all of it: the event lands on NFL kickoff night, it butts up against the 25th anniversary of September 11th, and Politico found 45 of 70 Republican candidates and members skipping it. Their sharper point is that the whole thing is a microcosm of the party's bind &mdash; you cannot win without the MAGA base, and you cannot win with only the MAGA base &mdash; which is why swing-state nominees like Jon Husted and Mike Rogers will show up and try very hard to deliver a forgettable speech. Chuck argues nationalizing the election isn't crazy on its own terms, since the other side is going to run against Trump anyway, but doubts Trump can hit any register besides red meat, and doubts even more that he can find a second gear for the September 11th anniversary the following day.
From there they dig into Texas, where MAGA Inc's first $10 million buy is running a half-negative, half-positive ad about taxes &mdash; a signal, Chuck says, that they know the target is suburban Romney Republicans, not the base. He walks through Greg Abbott's steadily declining margins, the four-to-eight-point scandal penalty that history says attaches to a candidate like Paxton, and lands somewhere that surprises Chris: he now likes Talarico's odds better than Sherrod Brown's in Ohio. They check the prediction markets, unpack the Missouri Supreme Court ruling that blocked the Republican-drawn map and effectively hands Emanuel Cleaver his seat back, and take apart Trump's request that the Supreme Court impose a national check on mail voting &mdash; a policy every Republican strategist will tell you privately hurts their own side. Then a long, unsparing conversation about the Wall Street Journal's reporting on John Fetterman and what it means for control of the Senate on January 3rd, a real case for a third Senate conference built around Murkowski and a possible independent, and a closing riff on Nick Saban, Pat McAfee, and why the Protect College Sports Act is doomed without collective bargaining.
&nbsp;
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Eight Tuesdays out &mdash; and why they actually prepare for these now
03:00 The first midterm convention since the early '80s&nbsp;
04:00 $25,000 a head, and Tim Burchett's surprise invoice
05:00 It lands on the opening night of the NFL season
07:00 The Trump trap &mdash; you can't afford to say no
08:00 Nationalizing the election isn't the crazy part
11:00 The convention as a microcosm of the GOP's whole problem
13:00 "Trumpapalooza" &mdash; so what's the actual message?
14:00 Conventions aren't for swing voters, and never have been
16:00 Husted, Rogers &amp; the art of the deliberately forgettable speech
19:00 Trump as TV producer &mdash; and the 9/11 anniversary the next day
20:00 Will he turn the 25th anniversary into a political speech?
23:00 MAGA Inc's first $10M buy lands in Texas
26:00 They tried calling Talarico weird. It didn't take.
27:00 Trump throws Paxton under the bus in the Oval
29:00 Abbott's slipping margins and the blue tsunami scenario
31:00 South Texas Latinos appear to be shifting back
33:00 Clinton lost Texas by less than she lost Iowa in 2016
34:00 Blue-collar trade unions and the industrial Midwest problem
38:00 Trump asks the Supreme Court for a national mail-voting check
39:00 The rural voters his own rule would punish hardest
42:00 Democrats at 85-88% to take the House
43:00 The Missouri ruling
46:00 Why this is anti-voter, full stop
47:00 The Senate sits at 52-48 Republican. A year ago it was 71-29.
49:00 Alaska, and Dan Sullivan's troubling primary numbers
51:00 The Wall Street Journal's Fetterman story
54:00 The practical stakes: who controls the Senate on January 3rd
55:00 Does Fetterman leave the party?
58:00 He's already built the intellectual case for walking
1:00:00 January 3rd is the whole ballgame
1:02:00 Osborn, Bodner, Banks and the independent wave
1:03:00 The real case for a third Senate conference
1:05:00 Saban and McAfee push the Protect College Sports Act
1:07:00 No labor at the table means it dies in court
1:08:00 Ashley Moody's quiet ACC poison pill
1:12:00 The Nats chase the blown-save record. Sell the team.
1:13:00 Dynastic: Finebaum on why Alabama may not run it back

Can Trump’s Midterm Convention Prevent A Democratic Blue Tsunami?

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/6ce108db-e48b-432e-806f-b4be017c1218/transcript

Inside ten weeks to the midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza start with the race Republicans have suddenly woken up to: Texas. With Talarico sitting on $21.5 million to Paxton's $1.75 million, Cornyn refusing to raise money in-state, and John Kennedy telling Fox News flatly that the Senate doesn't have the money budgeted for Texas, the guys argue the GOP's comfort blanket — that this is a Paxton problem, not a party problem — is wrong. Chuck's bet: no Republican on the Texas statewide ticket breaks 55%. From there they turn to the issue that's moved faster than either expected, data centers, framed by Trump's Monday Truth Social post declaring that communities rejecting them "want to end up being backwards and poor" and urging the country to "let Data Reign." Chuck and Chris place it in the rare category of issues voters force onto politicians rather than the reverse — the opioid crisis being the last one — and track the fallout from Wisconsin, where Tom Tiffany is already hitting David Crowley on it, to Shapiro and Hochul reversing course, to the blue-collar trade unions now cutting the other way.

The heart of the episode is a long strategic read of the map. The Atlantic reported Trump wants to deploy MAGA Inc's roughly $400 million on ads touting his own second term, telling voters to "pretend I'm on the ballot" — and Chuck makes the counterintuitive case that it may be defensible where the fight actually is, even as they debate whether it gooses MAGA turnout or hands independents another reason to break left. They walk the four-seat path through North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska, why Michigan is the state that keeps Democrats up at night, and what Abdul El-Sayed's ongoing Hasan Piker problem is costing him thirty days after the primary. Chris picks Texas as the GOP's nightmare on sheer cost; Chuck picks Iowa, where three House seats, a Senate seat, and a governorship all sit on the table. Plus: the 2028er welcome in both red and blue America (it's not who you'd guess), Trump's demand that the FCC punish Kristen Welker over a single mild remark, a blistering segment on Pete Hegseth and a munitions shortage nobody in Congress seems to be asking about, and the Nats' blown ninth-inning lead as a season in miniature.

Timeline:

00:00 Inside ten weeks — and a college football appetizer

01:00 Why college football has become prime political ad real estate

02:00 The ads they spotted: anti-Whatley in NC, anti-Talarico in Texas

03:00 Republicans wake up to a real race a real money problem in Texas

04:00 The cash disparity — $21.5M for Talarico, $1.75M for Paxton

05:00 The Texas governor's race 

06:00 A one-party state can't blame a party that doesn't exist

07:00 Is Paxton the problem, or is it the environment?

08:00 Trump's data center post: "let Data Reign"

10:00 Reid Wilson called data centers the sleeper issue six weeks ago

11:00 Washington is only discovering what voters have said for months

12:00 David Wallace-Wells & data centers as a vessel for tech frustration

13:00 Wisconsin: Tiffany already attacking Crowley on data centers

14:00 Big tech is the new big Pharma 

15:00 The counter-trend: blue-collar trade unions saying these are jobs

16:00 Why is Trump this pro-data-center in an anti-data-center moment?

19:00 The Atlantic: Trump wants to spend the $400M and run his own campaign

20:00 "Pretend I am on the ballot"

21:00 Wave-year history: Clinton in '00, Bush in '06, Obama in '10 and '14

22:00 Where Trump can't go: Ohio, North Carolina, Maine, Michigan

23:00 The four-seat path — North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska

24:00 The fifth state problem: Iowa, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Montana

25:00 The Darline Graham rescue mission and what it proved

26:00 Democratic gains are a given — the question is wave or tsunami

27:00 This election is about the cost of living 

28:00 Cook's toss-ups always break in one direction

31:00 What if Republicans win New Hampshire and Democrats win Texas?

34:00 The state that keeps Democrats up at night

35:00 El-Sayed is still doing cleanup thirty days after the primary

37:00 The libertarian-candidate play red-state Democrats aren't running

38:00 The Hasan Piker problem

39:00 The Detroit synagogue comment and the apology he did make

42:00 The Trump-and-white-supremacists parallel

43:00 Alaska as the wild card: ranked choice, two Sullivans, Peltola

45:00 Josh Turek is a very hard candidate to attack

47:00 Rob Sand deserves 30% of the buzz Ossoff is getting

49:00 The Obama-in-'06 comparison and the asses-in-seats metric

50:00 Newsom went to Michigan and couldn't find anyone to campaign with

52:00 Trump demands the FCC punish Kristen Welker

54:00 What the meltdown says about how fragile he is

57:00 The Maggie Haberman attack, 48 hours apart

58:00 Hegseth gets the worst week in Washington

59:00 Sean Parnell, the influencer hires & a very online secretary

1:00:00 The cabinet primary: Lutnick, RFK Jr., Gabbard

1:02:00 Are we really out of munitions after one excursion against Iran?

1:03:00 Lake Ontario gets more coverage than troops without weapons

1:05:00 The Nats blow a 2-0 ninth-inning lead to the Marlins

1:07:00 No bullpen help at the deadline, and here we are

1:07:00 Becoming Statler and Waldorf

1:08:00 Tuesday night live: the Massachusetts primary

Inside ten weeks to the midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza start with the race Republicans have suddenly woken up to: Texas. With Talarico sitting on $21.5 million to Paxton's $1.75 million, Cornyn refusing to raise money in-state, and John Kennedy telling Fox News flatly that the Senate doesn't have the money budgeted for Texas, the guys argue the GOP's comfort blanket &mdash; that this is a Paxton problem, not a party problem &mdash; is wrong. Chuck's bet: no Republican on the Texas statewide ticket breaks 55%. From there they turn to the issue that's moved faster than either expected, data centers, framed by Trump's Monday Truth Social post declaring that communities rejecting them "want to end up being backwards and poor" and urging the country to "let Data Reign." Chuck and Chris place it in the rare category of issues voters force onto politicians rather than the reverse &mdash; the opioid crisis being the last one &mdash; and track the fallout from Wisconsin, where Tom Tiffany is already hitting David Crowley on it, to Shapiro and Hochul reversing course, to the blue-collar trade unions now cutting the other way.
The heart of the episode is a long strategic read of the map. The Atlantic reported Trump wants to deploy MAGA Inc's roughly $400 million on ads touting his own second term, telling voters to "pretend I'm on the ballot" &mdash; and Chuck makes the counterintuitive case that it may be defensible where the fight actually is, even as they debate whether it gooses MAGA turnout or hands independents another reason to break left. They walk the four-seat path through North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska, why Michigan is the state that keeps Democrats up at night, and what Abdul El-Sayed's ongoing Hasan Piker problem is costing him thirty days after the primary. Chris picks Texas as the GOP's nightmare on sheer cost; Chuck picks Iowa, where three House seats, a Senate seat, and a governorship all sit on the table. Plus: the 2028er welcome in both red and blue America (it's not who you'd guess), Trump's demand that the FCC punish Kristen Welker over a single mild remark, a blistering segment on Pete Hegseth and a munitions shortage nobody in Congress seems to be asking about, and the Nats' blown ninth-inning lead as a season in miniature.
Timeline:
00:00 Inside ten weeks &mdash; and a college football appetizer
01:00 Why college football has become prime political ad real estate
02:00 The ads they spotted: anti-Whatley in NC, anti-Talarico in Texas
03:00 Republicans wake up to a real race a real money problem in Texas
04:00 The cash disparity &mdash; $21.5M for Talarico, $1.75M for Paxton
05:00 The Texas governor's race&nbsp;
06:00 A one-party state can't blame a party that doesn't exist
07:00 Is Paxton the problem, or is it the environment?
08:00 Trump's data center post: "let Data Reign"
10:00 Reid Wilson called data centers the sleeper issue six weeks ago
11:00 Washington is only discovering what voters have said for months
12:00 David Wallace-Wells &amp; data centers as a vessel for tech frustration
13:00 Wisconsin: Tiffany already attacking Crowley on data centers
14:00 Big tech is the new big Pharma&nbsp;
15:00 The counter-trend: blue-collar trade unions saying these are jobs
16:00 Why is Trump this pro-data-center in an anti-data-center moment?
19:00 The Atlantic: Trump wants to spend the $400M and run his own campaign
20:00 "Pretend I am on the ballot"
21:00 Wave-year history: Clinton in '00, Bush in '06, Obama in '10 and '14
22:00 Where Trump can't go: Ohio, North Carolina, Maine, Michigan
23:00 The four-seat path &mdash; North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska
24:00 The fifth state problem: Iowa, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Montana
25:00 The Darline Graham rescue mission and what it proved
26:00 Democratic gains are a given &mdash; the question is wave or tsunami
27:00 This election is about the cost of living&nbsp;
28:00 Cook's toss-ups always break in one direction
31:00 What if Republicans win New Hampshire and Democrats win Texas?
34:00 The state that keeps Democrats up at night
35:00 El-Sayed is still doing cleanup thirty days after the primary
37:00 The libertarian-candidate play red-state Democrats aren't running
38:00 The Hasan Piker problem
39:00 The Detroit synagogue comment and the apology he did make
42:00 The Trump-and-white-supremacists parallel
43:00 Alaska as the wild card: ranked choice, two Sullivans, Peltola
45:00 Josh Turek is a very hard candidate to attack
47:00 Rob Sand deserves 30% of the buzz Ossoff is getting
49:00 The Obama-in-'06 comparison and the asses-in-seats metric
50:00 Newsom went to Michigan and couldn't find anyone to campaign with
52:00 Trump demands the FCC punish Kristen Welker
54:00 What the meltdown says about how fragile he is
57:00 The Maggie Haberman attack, 48 hours apart
58:00 Hegseth gets the worst week in Washington
59:00 Sean Parnell, the influencer hires &amp; a very online secretary
1:00:00 The cabinet primary: Lutnick, RFK Jr., Gabbard
1:02:00 Are we really out of munitions after one excursion against Iran?
1:03:00 Lake Ontario gets more coverage than troops without weapons
1:05:00 The Nats blow a 2-0 ninth-inning lead to the Marlins
1:07:00 No bullpen help at the deadline, and here we are
1:07:00 Becoming Statler and Waldorf
1:08:00 Tuesday night live: the Massachusetts primary

Are Democrats Headed For A Blue Wave… Or A Blue Tsunami?

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/7c4f95c3-c045-441d-978c-b4b70177f7d6/transcript

After last week's Democratic field audit, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza turn to the 2028 Republicans — and find a race the markets treat as a two-man affair between JD Vance and Marco Rubio, and one that Chuck thinks is far softer than that looks. His case: no sitting vice president has been denied his party's nomination in the modern era, but Vance sits below 50% in the markets and may be the weakest heir apparent in either man's lifetime, a candidate who has never won anything without Trump carrying him. They dig into why Rubio has kept his hands remarkably clean on the Iran debacle while Vance has ended up owning it, and why Chuck thinks Rubio takes a break, makes money, and waits for 2032. From there they build out the rest of the field: the near-certainty of a Trump family candidate, Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the likeliest VP pick, Joe Lombardo as the pragmatist the party should be building around, Nikki Haley's underrated path, why Tucker Carlson's contrarianism has no Buchanan-style through line, the class of cabinet officials convinced they can do this — and a genuine, surprising case for Rand Paul as the one candidate who could credibly run against Trump's tariffs and Iran war without being an anti-Trumper.

The second half is a brutal accounting of Trump's August. With Canada moving to retaliate after the administration began enforcing 50% tariffs on a slate of Canadian goods and Mark Carney declaring his country "at war," and a temporary waiver on tariffs for 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef drawing pushback from ranchers, Chuck argues Trump has become the single most effective partner Chuck Schumer has — turning Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota into live races and making life impossible for Collins, Rogers, Hinson, and Husted. They walk through the Arkansas poll showing Tom Cotton in a real race, why they think Republicans have already wasted their financial advantage, and Trump's insistence he deserves a perfect grade on the economy. Then they preview Tuesday's high-stakes South Carolina runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman — a race Trump has personally invested in, with a striking stat about appointed senators in the South — before closing on the Nats' collapse and a hard look at how the front office handled CJ Abrams.

Timeline:

00:00 Last week was the Democrats — today it's the 2028 Republican field

00:40 The markets read it as a two-man race: Vance 47%, Rubio 20%

00:57 Who else clears 3%: Tucker, Trump Sr., DeSantis, Don Jr.

01:35 History says the sitting VP gets it 

02:51 Vance reminds Chuck of Kamala Harris

03:19 A frontrunner with no positive track record to point to

04:05 Vance probably isn't even a senator without Trump

04:51 How much of Vance's weakness is actually Trump's decline?

06:26 If Trump loses the House and Senate, the field blows open

07:28 Why a Trump family candidacy isn't a 0% proposition

08:03 Ivanka as heir apparent? The Don Jr. vs. Eric assumption

08:44 Rubio: does he run, or take the VP slot?

10:07 Hegseth as McNamara, and Vance owning a war he questioned

10:48 How has Rubio kept his hands this clean?

12:42 The one cabinet member with no visible pay-for-play story

13:13 Chuck's prediction: Rubio sits it out, runs in 2032

14:21 Who else? A Hawley or Cotton as Trumpism 2.0

14:48 Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the most likely VP pick

15:24 Youngkin's problem, and the Huntsman-Kasich empathy lane

16:17 Spencer Cox and the never-Trump ceiling

17:59 How the war with Canada gutted the Las Vegas economy

19:30 Can a Jim Banks run against Vance? 

20:42 Brian Kemp passed on the Senate to look at 2028

21:24 What do Republican primary voters even want after a wipeout?

22:11 Are we underwriting Nikki Haley?

23:45 What to make of Tucker Carlson's ten-point plan

25:37 MTG, Massie & the America First lane

27:12 Why Never Trumpers overrate his constituency

28:40 The cabinet members who all think they'll be president

30:09 The Portnoy/Cuban outsider slot

31:19 The one advantage — Vance runs the RNC's fundraising operation

34:06 The real problem for Rand Paul: he isn't likable

35:02 Tariffs and Iran — Trump's two great failures, and Paul opposed both

36:27 Under 1% on the board: the dark-horse buy

36:51 To Trump: a trade war with Canada, and more sanctions on Iran

38:20 The beef decision and what it does to midwest states

39:05 Why the Canada fight hits Vegas and Orlando hardest

40:21 Has Trump found a floor lower than Bush's?

41:41 The Arkansas poll putting Tom Cotton in a real race

42:03 Reading the methodology honestly 

43:18 Donald Trump has declared war on rural America

44:55 Trump says he deserves 100% on the economy

46:22 Republicans wasted their financial advantage

47:59 Tuesday night preview: the Graham-Norman runoff

48:40 Trump calls in, rallies in Myrtle Beach t

50:16 Appointed senators survive at 44% in the South vs. 81% elsewhere

52:26 Trump's endorsement record & why he wants to reassert dominance

53:27 What a Graham loss would mean for Hinson and Husted

54:41 Why Collins doesn't want Trump in Maine

57:02 Vance as a cipher — from near-primary-loss to vice president

59:37 What has JD Vance actually done?

1:00:45 The Nats get swept by the Marlins 

1:05:04 How you actually screw up a team

1:06:23 Where this front office is genuinely excellent

1:07:48 It's still a people business, just like politics

After last week's Democratic field audit, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza turn to the 2028 Republicans &mdash; and find a race the markets treat as a two-man affair between JD Vance and Marco Rubio, and one that Chuck thinks is far softer than that looks. His case: no sitting vice president has been denied his party's nomination in the modern era, but Vance sits below 50% in the markets and may be the weakest heir apparent in either man's lifetime, a candidate who has never won anything without Trump carrying him. They dig into why Rubio has kept his hands remarkably clean on the Iran debacle while Vance has ended up owning it, and why Chuck thinks Rubio takes a break, makes money, and waits for 2032. From there they build out the rest of the field: the near-certainty of a Trump family candidate, Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the likeliest VP pick, Joe Lombardo as the pragmatist the party should be building around, Nikki Haley's underrated path, why Tucker Carlson's contrarianism has no Buchanan-style through line, the class of cabinet officials convinced they can do this &mdash; and a genuine, surprising case for Rand Paul as the one candidate who could credibly run against Trump's tariffs and Iran war without being an anti-Trumper.
The second half is a brutal accounting of Trump's August. With Canada moving to retaliate after the administration began enforcing 50% tariffs on a slate of Canadian goods and Mark Carney declaring his country "at war," and a temporary waiver on tariffs for 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef drawing pushback from ranchers, Chuck argues Trump has become the single most effective partner Chuck Schumer has &mdash; turning Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota into live races and making life impossible for Collins, Rogers, Hinson, and Husted. They walk through the Arkansas poll showing Tom Cotton in a real race, why they think Republicans have already wasted their financial advantage, and Trump's insistence he deserves a perfect grade on the economy. Then they preview Tuesday's high-stakes South Carolina runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman &mdash; a race Trump has personally invested in, with a striking stat about appointed senators in the South &mdash; before closing on the Nats' collapse and a hard look at how the front office handled CJ Abrams.
Timeline:
00:00 Last week was the Democrats &mdash; today it's the 2028 Republican field
00:40 The markets read it as a two-man race: Vance 47%, Rubio 20%
00:57 Who else clears 3%: Tucker, Trump Sr., DeSantis, Don Jr.
01:35 History says the sitting VP gets it&nbsp;
02:51 Vance reminds Chuck of Kamala Harris
03:19 A frontrunner with no positive track record to point to
04:05 Vance probably isn't even a senator without Trump
04:51 How much of Vance's weakness is actually Trump's decline?
06:26 If Trump loses the House and Senate, the field blows open
07:28 Why a Trump family candidacy isn't a 0% proposition
08:03 Ivanka as heir apparent? The Don Jr. vs. Eric assumption
08:44 Rubio: does he run, or take the VP slot?
10:07 Hegseth as McNamara, and Vance owning a war he questioned
10:48 How has Rubio kept his hands this clean?
12:42 The one cabinet member with no visible pay-for-play story
13:13 Chuck's prediction: Rubio sits it out, runs in 2032
14:21 Who else? A Hawley or Cotton as Trumpism 2.0
14:48 Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the most likely VP pick
15:24 Youngkin's problem, and the Huntsman-Kasich empathy lane
16:17 Spencer Cox and the never-Trump ceiling
17:59 How the war with Canada gutted the Las Vegas economy
19:30 Can a Jim Banks run against Vance?&nbsp;
20:42 Brian Kemp passed on the Senate to look at 2028
21:24 What do Republican primary voters even want after a wipeout?
22:11 Are we underwriting Nikki Haley?
23:45 What to make of Tucker Carlson's ten-point plan
25:37 MTG, Massie &amp; the America First lane
27:12 Why Never Trumpers overrate his constituency
28:40 The cabinet members who all think they'll be president
30:09 The Portnoy/Cuban outsider slot
31:19 The one advantage &mdash; Vance runs the RNC's fundraising operation
34:06 The real problem for Rand Paul: he isn't likable
35:02 Tariffs and Iran &mdash; Trump's two great failures, and Paul opposed both
36:27 Under 1% on the board: the dark-horse buy
36:51 To Trump: a trade war with Canada, and more sanctions on Iran
38:20 The beef decision and what it does to midwest states
39:05 Why the Canada fight hits Vegas and Orlando hardest
40:21 Has Trump found a floor lower than Bush's?
41:41 The Arkansas poll putting Tom Cotton in a real race
42:03 Reading the methodology honestly&nbsp;
43:18 Donald Trump has declared war on rural America
44:55 Trump says he deserves 100% on the economy
46:22 Republicans wasted their financial advantage
47:59 Tuesday night preview: the Graham-Norman runoff
48:40 Trump calls in, rallies in Myrtle Beach t
50:16 Appointed senators survive at 44% in the South vs. 81% elsewhere
52:26 Trump's endorsement record &amp; why he wants to reassert dominance
53:27 What a Graham loss would mean for Hinson and Husted
54:41 Why Collins doesn't want Trump in Maine
57:02 Vance as a cipher &mdash; from near-primary-loss to vice president
59:37 What has JD Vance actually done?
1:00:45 The Nats get swept by the Marlins&nbsp;
1:05:04 How you actually screw up a team
1:06:23 Where this front office is genuinely excellent
1:07:48 It's still a people business, just like politics

Who Succeeds TRUMP? Why The 2028 Republican Field Is WIDE OPEN

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The Iran War Is This Election Cycle's IRAQ For Republicans… But WORSE

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