Longtime political analysts Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd discuss the latest political news and how those stories will affect upcoming elections. 

Longtime political analysts Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd discuss the latest political news and how those stories will affect upcoming elections.&nbsp;

Super Tuesdays with Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd

Introducing: Super Tuesdays with Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/55f281dd-be59-4ece-bb89-b47f00ceb735/transcript

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After last week's Democratic field audit, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza turn to the 2028 Republicans — and find a race the markets treat as a two-man affair between JD Vance and Marco Rubio, and one that Chuck thinks is far softer than that looks. His case: no sitting vice president has been denied his party's nomination in the modern era, but Vance sits below 50% in the markets and may be the weakest heir apparent in either man's lifetime, a candidate who has never won anything without Trump carrying him. They dig into why Rubio has kept his hands remarkably clean on the Iran debacle while Vance has ended up owning it, and why Chuck thinks Rubio takes a break, makes money, and waits for 2032. From there they build out the rest of the field: the near-certainty of a Trump family candidate, Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the likeliest VP pick, Joe Lombardo as the pragmatist the party should be building around, Nikki Haley's underrated path, why Tucker Carlson's contrarianism has no Buchanan-style through line, the class of cabinet officials convinced they can do this — and a genuine, surprising case for Rand Paul as the one candidate who could credibly run against Trump's tariffs and Iran war without being an anti-Trumper.

The second half is a brutal accounting of Trump's August. With Canada moving to retaliate after the administration began enforcing 50% tariffs on a slate of Canadian goods and Mark Carney declaring his country "at war," and a temporary waiver on tariffs for 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef drawing pushback from ranchers, Chuck argues Trump has become the single most effective partner Chuck Schumer has — turning Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota into live races and making life impossible for Collins, Rogers, Hinson, and Husted. They walk through the Arkansas poll showing Tom Cotton in a real race, why they think Republicans have already wasted their financial advantage, and Trump's insistence he deserves a perfect grade on the economy. Then they preview Tuesday's high-stakes South Carolina runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman — a race Trump has personally invested in, with a striking stat about appointed senators in the South — before closing on the Nats' collapse and a hard look at how the front office handled CJ Abrams.

Timeline:

00:00 Last week was the Democrats — today it's the 2028 Republican field

00:40 The markets read it as a two-man race: Vance 47%, Rubio 20%

00:57 Who else clears 3%: Tucker, Trump Sr., DeSantis, Don Jr.

01:35 History says the sitting VP gets it 

02:51 Vance reminds Chuck of Kamala Harris

03:19 A frontrunner with no positive track record to point to

04:05 Vance probably isn't even a senator without Trump

04:51 How much of Vance's weakness is actually Trump's decline?

06:26 If Trump loses the House and Senate, the field blows open

07:28 Why a Trump family candidacy isn't a 0% proposition

08:03 Ivanka as heir apparent? The Don Jr. vs. Eric assumption

08:44 Rubio: does he run, or take the VP slot?

10:07 Hegseth as McNamara, and Vance owning a war he questioned

10:48 How has Rubio kept his hands this clean?

12:42 The one cabinet member with no visible pay-for-play story

13:13 Chuck's prediction: Rubio sits it out, runs in 2032

14:21 Who else? A Hawley or Cotton as Trumpism 2.0

14:48 Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the most likely VP pick

15:24 Youngkin's problem, and the Huntsman-Kasich empathy lane

16:17 Spencer Cox and the never-Trump ceiling

17:59 How the war with Canada gutted the Las Vegas economy

19:30 Can a Jim Banks run against Vance? 

20:42 Brian Kemp passed on the Senate to look at 2028

21:24 What do Republican primary voters even want after a wipeout?

22:11 Are we underwriting Nikki Haley?

23:45 What to make of Tucker Carlson's ten-point plan

25:37 MTG, Massie & the America First lane

27:12 Why Never Trumpers overrate his constituency

28:40 The cabinet members who all think they'll be president

30:09 The Portnoy/Cuban outsider slot

31:19 The one advantage — Vance runs the RNC's fundraising operation

34:06 The real problem for Rand Paul: he isn't likable

35:02 Tariffs and Iran — Trump's two great failures, and Paul opposed both

36:27 Under 1% on the board: the dark-horse buy

36:51 To Trump: a trade war with Canada, and more sanctions on Iran

38:20 The beef decision and what it does to midwest states

39:05 Why the Canada fight hits Vegas and Orlando hardest

40:21 Has Trump found a floor lower than Bush's?

41:41 The Arkansas poll putting Tom Cotton in a real race

42:03 Reading the methodology honestly 

43:18 Donald Trump has declared war on rural America

44:55 Trump says he deserves 100% on the economy

46:22 Republicans wasted their financial advantage

47:59 Tuesday night preview: the Graham-Norman runoff

48:40 Trump calls in, rallies in Myrtle Beach t

50:16 Appointed senators survive at 44% in the South vs. 81% elsewhere

52:26 Trump's endorsement record & why he wants to reassert dominance

53:27 What a Graham loss would mean for Hinson and Husted

54:41 Why Collins doesn't want Trump in Maine

57:02 Vance as a cipher — from near-primary-loss to vice president

59:37 What has JD Vance actually done?

1:00:45 The Nats get swept by the Marlins 

1:05:04 How you actually screw up a team

1:06:23 Where this front office is genuinely excellent

1:07:48 It's still a people business, just like politics

After last week's Democratic field audit, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza turn to the 2028 Republicans &mdash; and find a race the markets treat as a two-man affair between JD Vance and Marco Rubio, and one that Chuck thinks is far softer than that looks. His case: no sitting vice president has been denied his party's nomination in the modern era, but Vance sits below 50% in the markets and may be the weakest heir apparent in either man's lifetime, a candidate who has never won anything without Trump carrying him. They dig into why Rubio has kept his hands remarkably clean on the Iran debacle while Vance has ended up owning it, and why Chuck thinks Rubio takes a break, makes money, and waits for 2032. From there they build out the rest of the field: the near-certainty of a Trump family candidate, Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the likeliest VP pick, Joe Lombardo as the pragmatist the party should be building around, Nikki Haley's underrated path, why Tucker Carlson's contrarianism has no Buchanan-style through line, the class of cabinet officials convinced they can do this &mdash; and a genuine, surprising case for Rand Paul as the one candidate who could credibly run against Trump's tariffs and Iran war without being an anti-Trumper.
The second half is a brutal accounting of Trump's August. With Canada moving to retaliate after the administration began enforcing 50% tariffs on a slate of Canadian goods and Mark Carney declaring his country "at war," and a temporary waiver on tariffs for 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef drawing pushback from ranchers, Chuck argues Trump has become the single most effective partner Chuck Schumer has &mdash; turning Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota into live races and making life impossible for Collins, Rogers, Hinson, and Husted. They walk through the Arkansas poll showing Tom Cotton in a real race, why they think Republicans have already wasted their financial advantage, and Trump's insistence he deserves a perfect grade on the economy. Then they preview Tuesday's high-stakes South Carolina runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman &mdash; a race Trump has personally invested in, with a striking stat about appointed senators in the South &mdash; before closing on the Nats' collapse and a hard look at how the front office handled CJ Abrams.
Timeline:
00:00 Last week was the Democrats &mdash; today it's the 2028 Republican field
00:40 The markets read it as a two-man race: Vance 47%, Rubio 20%
00:57 Who else clears 3%: Tucker, Trump Sr., DeSantis, Don Jr.
01:35 History says the sitting VP gets it&nbsp;
02:51 Vance reminds Chuck of Kamala Harris
03:19 A frontrunner with no positive track record to point to
04:05 Vance probably isn't even a senator without Trump
04:51 How much of Vance's weakness is actually Trump's decline?
06:26 If Trump loses the House and Senate, the field blows open
07:28 Why a Trump family candidacy isn't a 0% proposition
08:03 Ivanka as heir apparent? The Don Jr. vs. Eric assumption
08:44 Rubio: does he run, or take the VP slot?
10:07 Hegseth as McNamara, and Vance owning a war he questioned
10:48 How has Rubio kept his hands this clean?
12:42 The one cabinet member with no visible pay-for-play story
13:13 Chuck's prediction: Rubio sits it out, runs in 2032
14:21 Who else? A Hawley or Cotton as Trumpism 2.0
14:48 Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the most likely VP pick
15:24 Youngkin's problem, and the Huntsman-Kasich empathy lane
16:17 Spencer Cox and the never-Trump ceiling
17:59 How the war with Canada gutted the Las Vegas economy
19:30 Can a Jim Banks run against Vance?&nbsp;
20:42 Brian Kemp passed on the Senate to look at 2028
21:24 What do Republican primary voters even want after a wipeout?
22:11 Are we underwriting Nikki Haley?
23:45 What to make of Tucker Carlson's ten-point plan
25:37 MTG, Massie &amp; the America First lane
27:12 Why Never Trumpers overrate his constituency
28:40 The cabinet members who all think they'll be president
30:09 The Portnoy/Cuban outsider slot
31:19 The one advantage &mdash; Vance runs the RNC's fundraising operation
34:06 The real problem for Rand Paul: he isn't likable
35:02 Tariffs and Iran &mdash; Trump's two great failures, and Paul opposed both
36:27 Under 1% on the board: the dark-horse buy
36:51 To Trump: a trade war with Canada, and more sanctions on Iran
38:20 The beef decision and what it does to midwest states
39:05 Why the Canada fight hits Vegas and Orlando hardest
40:21 Has Trump found a floor lower than Bush's?
41:41 The Arkansas poll putting Tom Cotton in a real race
42:03 Reading the methodology honestly&nbsp;
43:18 Donald Trump has declared war on rural America
44:55 Trump says he deserves 100% on the economy
46:22 Republicans wasted their financial advantage
47:59 Tuesday night preview: the Graham-Norman runoff
48:40 Trump calls in, rallies in Myrtle Beach t
50:16 Appointed senators survive at 44% in the South vs. 81% elsewhere
52:26 Trump's endorsement record &amp; why he wants to reassert dominance
53:27 What a Graham loss would mean for Hinson and Husted
54:41 Why Collins doesn't want Trump in Maine
57:02 Vance as a cipher &mdash; from near-primary-loss to vice president
59:37 What has JD Vance actually done?
1:00:45 The Nats get swept by the Marlins&nbsp;
1:05:04 How you actually screw up a team
1:06:23 Where this front office is genuinely excellent
1:07:48 It's still a people business, just like politics

Who Succeeds TRUMP? Why The 2028 Republican Field Is WIDE OPEN

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/ef8d6ecb-658f-4b0e-a1fa-b4b0017eed89/transcript

With under 80 days to the midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza pause the horse race for a full "where are we now" audit of the 2028 Democratic field — prompted, Chris admits, by listener pushback that they'd been too dismissive of Gavin Newsom. Using the Kalshi and Polymarket odds as a starting point rather than gospel, they work through a top tier of AOC, Newsom, and Jon Ossoff. Chuck's central thesis is that AOC could become a magnetic force on the scale of Trump in 2016 or Obama in 2008 — a candidacy the entire field gets measured against, potentially freezing out half the governors and senators eyeing a run. He maps how she could be the frontrunner while playing underdog in South Carolina, and why the new calendar's crowded first state may actually cushion her. On Newsom, Chuck is blunt: the prediction markets are artificially inflating him, the attention economy is doing the work, and a California governor with a mixed record has no obvious state to win. They also make the case that Kamala Harris ultimately doesn't run — and that not running is the smarter play for 2032.

The back half turns to the field's second tier and its long shots: whether Mark Kelly has the hunger and the issue to go with the biography (Chuck's dream ticket: Kelly and Warnock, order randomized), why John Glenn and Bill Bradley are the cautionary tales for résumé candidates, whether Ossoff can realistically jump straight from an $87 million Senate race into a billion-dollar presidential campaign, and a genuine dark-horse case for Rahm Emanuel built on the party's underinvestment in rural Black voters. They preview Tuesday's Florida primary — Byron Donalds's real ceiling, why Chuck thinks the general could land inside five points, the Mel Martinez precedent, and Corey Mills, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Alex Vindman. Then the tone shifts hard: an angry, unsparing exchange about the expired US-Iran memorandum, the Strait of Hormuz, conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, and Pete Hegseth's fitness for the job.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Under 80 days out — and a full 2028 Democratic audit

01:06 Why Chuck thinks JD Vance will divide the right 

02:08 The prediction markets as one data point, not the whole story

02:55 Reading Polymarket and Kalshi: AOC, Newsom, Ossoff at the top

05:12 Could AOC suck up all the oxygen the way Trump did in '16?

06:15 The egg-freezing story as proof of her magnetic pull

06:42 Skeptical Newsom can play in Michigan, Iowa, South Carolina

07:30 The impossible position for Newsom

08:16 AOC's advantage — no long record to defend

09:38 Could egg-freezing access become an issue she champions?

10:01 How her presence could paralyze half the field before it starts

10:57 Where does that leave Pritzker? Or Ossoff?

11:59 The formalized DNC calendar

13:37 Nevada, Michigan and the Culinary Union question

14:42 Why a crowded South Carolina helps the progressive lane

15:13 What 2020 looked like when South Carolina came fourth

15:49 Newsom's real problem: where does he actually win?

16:59 Harris's East Coast headquarters lesson

17:22 Advice: put your HQ in Michigan, not San Francisco

19:42 The counterargument: no gatekeepers left, and the hustler wins

20:10 Ossoff, Buttigieg & who's actually willing to burn the boats

21:08 Newsom one-on-one vs. Newsom in a big room

22:08 Would a swing-state Democrat invite Newsom to campaign? 

23:04 Harris analysis: you don't buy in Malibu if you're running

24:06 The Dan Quayle risk if she runs under these circumstances

25:01 Newsom and Harris can't both run 

26:20 Mark Kelly in Iowa & the quote that reads like a stump speech

27:15 Chuck's lab-built ticket: an astronaut and a pastor

27:50 Will the Democratic base accept Kelly?

29:30 Is Kelly too pro-business for this version of the party?

30:45 How Trump's attacks on Kelly may have helped him

31:33 The real gap: Kelly has no signature issue

32:03 AOC is the change candidate — inside the party and outside it

33:09 Biographies don't win the presidency

33:30 The cautionary tales: John Glenn and Bill Bradley

35:08 The charisma gap — and Kelly's habit of yelling to show energy

35:55 Scanning the long shots on the board

36:55 If not AOC, then Ro Khanna

37:16 Pritzker at 1% — the governor who could reach the left

37:46 Chuck's real dark horse: Rahm Emanuel

39:32 Democrats' rural problem isn't just rural whites

39:59 The left will never accept him

42:07 Not a cycle for an insider — but maybe for an ideas guy

42:27 The Wisconsin lesson: Crowley won against something

42:50 To Florida: Tuesday's primary and Tuesday night's live stream

43:35 Jolly-Donalds could land inside five points

44:01 Why Florida isn't as noncompetitive as people assume

44:44 Could DeSantis win a third term? 

45:24 What's Donalds's real number? 

46:16 The Mel Martinez precedent

48:29 Why Chuck thinks Jerry Demings had the better shot at Donalds

49:56 The 2018 what-if: Bernie, Soros, Gillum and DeSantis

50:43 Credit to DeSantis for saying what Trump never does

51:48 Debbie Wasserman Schultz in a majority-Black district

52:38 The Vindman question — and the residency problem

54:23 The US-Iran memorandum expires with no deal

55:46 A $1.5 trillion budget and a carrier crew that can't get fed

56:11 Testosterone tests and push-up contests while the Lincoln goes short

56:33 Operationally a disaster — and where's the audit?

57:57 Damaging the last institution still standing

59:51 The Nats get swept by the Mets 

With under 80 days to the midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza pause the horse race for a full "where are we now" audit of the 2028 Democratic field &mdash; prompted, Chris admits, by listener pushback that they'd been too dismissive of Gavin Newsom. Using the Kalshi and Polymarket odds as a starting point rather than gospel, they work through a top tier of AOC, Newsom, and Jon Ossoff. Chuck's central thesis is that AOC could become a magnetic force on the scale of Trump in 2016 or Obama in 2008 &mdash; a candidacy the entire field gets measured against, potentially freezing out half the governors and senators eyeing a run. He maps how she could be the frontrunner while playing underdog in South Carolina, and why the new calendar's crowded first state may actually cushion her. On Newsom, Chuck is blunt: the prediction markets are artificially inflating him, the attention economy is doing the work, and a California governor with a mixed record has no obvious state to win. They also make the case that Kamala Harris ultimately doesn't run &mdash; and that not running is the smarter play for 2032.
The back half turns to the field's second tier and its long shots: whether Mark Kelly has the hunger and the issue to go with the biography (Chuck's dream ticket: Kelly and Warnock, order randomized), why John Glenn and Bill Bradley are the cautionary tales for r&eacute;sum&eacute; candidates, whether Ossoff can realistically jump straight from an $87 million Senate race into a billion-dollar presidential campaign, and a genuine dark-horse case for Rahm Emanuel built on the party's underinvestment in rural Black voters. They preview Tuesday's Florida primary &mdash; Byron Donalds's real ceiling, why Chuck thinks the general could land inside five points, the Mel Martinez precedent, and Corey Mills, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Alex Vindman. Then the tone shifts hard: an angry, unsparing exchange about the expired US-Iran memorandum, the Strait of Hormuz, conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, and Pete Hegseth's fitness for the job.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Under 80 days out &mdash; and a full 2028 Democratic audit
01:06 Why Chuck thinks JD Vance will divide the right&nbsp;
02:08 The prediction markets as one data point, not the whole story
02:55 Reading Polymarket and Kalshi: AOC, Newsom, Ossoff at the top
05:12 Could AOC suck up all the oxygen the way Trump did in '16?
06:15 The egg-freezing story as proof of her magnetic pull
06:42 Skeptical Newsom can play in Michigan, Iowa, South Carolina
07:30 The impossible position for Newsom
08:16 AOC's advantage &mdash; no long record to defend
09:38 Could egg-freezing access become an issue she champions?
10:01 How her presence could paralyze half the field before it starts
10:57 Where does that leave Pritzker? Or Ossoff?
11:59 The formalized DNC calendar
13:37 Nevada, Michigan and the Culinary Union question
14:42 Why a crowded South Carolina helps the progressive lane
15:13 What 2020 looked like when South Carolina came fourth
15:49 Newsom's real problem: where does he actually win?
16:59 Harris's East Coast headquarters lesson
17:22 Advice: put your HQ in Michigan, not San Francisco
19:42 The counterargument: no gatekeepers left, and the hustler wins
20:10 Ossoff, Buttigieg &amp; who's actually willing to burn the boats
21:08 Newsom one-on-one vs. Newsom in a big room
22:08 Would a swing-state Democrat invite Newsom to campaign?&nbsp;
23:04 Harris analysis: you don't buy in Malibu if you're running
24:06 The Dan Quayle risk if she runs under these circumstances
25:01 Newsom and Harris can't both run&nbsp;
26:20 Mark Kelly in Iowa &amp; the quote that reads like a stump speech
27:15 Chuck's lab-built ticket: an astronaut and a pastor
27:50 Will the Democratic base accept Kelly?
29:30 Is Kelly too pro-business for this version of the party?
30:45 How Trump's attacks on Kelly may have helped him
31:33 The real gap: Kelly has no signature issue
32:03 AOC is the change candidate &mdash; inside the party and outside it
33:09 Biographies don't win the presidency
33:30 The cautionary tales: John Glenn and Bill Bradley
35:08 The charisma gap &mdash; and Kelly's habit of yelling to show energy
35:55 Scanning the long shots on the board
36:55 If not AOC, then Ro Khanna
37:16 Pritzker at 1% &mdash; the governor who could reach the left
37:46 Chuck's real dark horse: Rahm Emanuel
39:32 Democrats' rural problem isn't just rural whites
39:59 The left will never accept him
42:07 Not a cycle for an insider &mdash; but maybe for an ideas guy
42:27 The Wisconsin lesson: Crowley won against something
42:50 To Florida: Tuesday's primary and Tuesday night's live stream
43:35 Jolly-Donalds could land inside five points
44:01 Why Florida isn't as noncompetitive as people assume
44:44 Could DeSantis win a third term?&nbsp;
45:24 What's Donalds's real number?&nbsp;
46:16 The Mel Martinez precedent
48:29 Why Chuck thinks Jerry Demings had the better shot at Donalds
49:56 The 2018 what-if: Bernie, Soros, Gillum and DeSantis
50:43 Credit to DeSantis for saying what Trump never does
51:48 Debbie Wasserman Schultz in a majority-Black district
52:38 The Vindman question &mdash; and the residency problem
54:23 The US-Iran memorandum expires with no deal
55:46 A $1.5 trillion budget and a carrier crew that can't get fed
56:11 Testosterone tests and push-up contests while the Lincoln goes short
56:33 Operationally a disaster &mdash; and where's the audit?
57:57 Damaging the last institution still standing
59:51 The Nats get swept by the Mets&nbsp;

2028 Presidential Preview: AOC Rising, Newsom Overrated, Harris Out 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/a70d4339-c3ee-48b1-bfa7-b4a9017270f8/transcript

With 84 days to the midterms and a six-state primary night ahead, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on Chuck's least-hedged read of the cycle: Democrats haven't had a good summer, but Republicans have had a worse one, and every macro trend points to something in the neighborhood of 30 House seats and six or seven Senate seats. The only thing holding him back from calling it a pasting is the Democratic brand problem — and they dig into the polling behind it, including why Hillary Clinton's warning that the socialism-and-communism attack could land is worth taking seriously. That leads to the sharpest segment of the episode: whether Abdul El-Sayed needs to give a version of the Kennedy "I don't work for the Pope" or Obama race speech about being a Muslim American, why the traditional consultant advice to ignore it is wrong, and where he'd give it. They then flip the question to the other side, asking whether Josh Shapiro, Jon Ossoff, Rahm Emanuel, or JB Pritzker will face a parallel demand to publicly separate loyalty to the Constitution from loyalty to Israel.

The back half is a clinic in reading political spin. Tim Scott's claim that Republicans will hold 54 Senate seats prompts a broader riff on why partisans now get punished for telling the truth, and why both the political industry and the media have built incentives against saying what's obvious. They break down AOC's remarkable weekend — announcing she's freezing her eggs, then telling Jon Karl she hasn't ruled out 2028 — and what it signals about staking a claim to the progressive lane before El-Sayed can. Chuck makes the case that parenthood is a real asset in presidential politics, and they assess whether Ossoff, now climbing the prediction markets, has the hunger and stamina for it, plus why Shapiro sometimes reads as a try-hard. They close with a genuinely angry exchange about Bill Cassidy's Blanche vote, the threats reshaping how senators vote, and a Nats-and-Reds baseball detour.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 84 days out and a six-state primary night ahead

00:45 Previewing the primaries

01:37 Republicans had a worse summer than Democrats

02:49 Trump makes it harder. Congress did nothing to earn reelection

03:14 Why the macro says 30 House seats and 6-7 Senate seats

04:02 Does the nominee even matter in an environment this bad?

05:14 Hillary Clinton's warning about the socialism-communism attack

06:14 In wave years, the losing party always thinks it's found a lifeline

06:45 Where the communism attack could actually work 

08:27 Did "Comrade Kamala" actually help Trump in 2024?

09:42 The attack only lands if a seed has already been planted

10:47 The mailbag question: Islamophobia in the Michigan race

11:11 Using El-Sayed's full name isn't even a dog whistle

12:10 Should El-Sayed give an Islam speech?

12:55 Why the consultant advice — stay on affordability — is wrong here

14:13 The Obama-and-Reverend-Wright precedent

15:45 Mike Rogers, Hassan Piker & a false attribution in circulation

17:24 Jackie Robinson, Kennedy, and breaking barriers

20:15 The flip side: will a Jewish candidate face the same demand?

22:10 The line each of them may have to draw on Netanyahu

23:02 Fever swamp vs. what voters actually care about

23:33 The insulting premise, and the Catholic parallel from the 1950s

25:05 Tim Scott tells Manu Raju Republicans will have 54 seats

26:51 Why partisans now get punished for telling the truth

28:49 Scott on Paxton, and what you're required to say out loud

30:42 Why they do the live streams — no election-night patty cake

31:47 The rare politicians who still say it plainly

32:41 AOC announces she's freezing her eggs

33:26 AOC says she's open to 2028

34:45 The El-Sayed factor: a swing-state progressive with more juice

36:23 Chuck's argument: you're a stronger candidate if you're a parent

37:52 Bush, Obama, Biden & families as political assets

38:51 Even Trump's kids softened him in 2016

41:08 The Howard Stern statistic about listeners who hate you

41:24 Ossoff passes Newsom in the Kalshi and Polymarket 2028 odds

42:10 Why Ossoff clearly has the ambition

44:08 Ossoff and Pritzker could bridge the party's divide

45:17 Pritzker's own money and his own record

46:07 Does Mark Kelly have the hunger? Does Wes Moore?

47:47 Where Shapiro crosses from wanting it to trying too hard

48:28 Des Moines in November, and why nobody likes a try-hard

49:18 Cassidy & Blanche 

50:40 The part that doesn't get reported: threats to families

51:21 You signed up to put the public ahead of yourself

53:15 Trump tells Punchbowl the voters are angry at Republicans, not him

53:46 Will he actually spend the super PAC money? 

54:04 The truth-serum question: would Trump rather be replaced by a Democrat?

54:20 Nats sweep the Reds

55:32 What is wrong with the Cincinnati Reds?

57:42 The Nats' 34-year-old analytics manager

With 84 days to the midterms and a six-state primary night ahead, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on Chuck's least-hedged read of the cycle: Democrats haven't had a good summer, but Republicans have had a worse one, and every macro trend points to something in the neighborhood of 30 House seats and six or seven Senate seats. The only thing holding him back from calling it a pasting is the Democratic brand problem &mdash; and they dig into the polling behind it, including why Hillary Clinton's warning that the socialism-and-communism attack could land is worth taking seriously. That leads to the sharpest segment of the episode: whether Abdul El-Sayed needs to give a version of the Kennedy "I don't work for the Pope" or Obama race speech about being a Muslim American, why the traditional consultant advice to ignore it is wrong, and where he'd give it. They then flip the question to the other side, asking whether Josh Shapiro, Jon Ossoff, Rahm Emanuel, or JB Pritzker will face a parallel demand to publicly separate loyalty to the Constitution from loyalty to Israel.
The back half is a clinic in reading political spin. Tim Scott's claim that Republicans will hold 54 Senate seats prompts a broader riff on why partisans now get punished for telling the truth, and why both the political industry and the media have built incentives against saying what's obvious. They break down AOC's remarkable weekend &mdash; announcing she's freezing her eggs, then telling Jon Karl she hasn't ruled out 2028 &mdash; and what it signals about staking a claim to the progressive lane before El-Sayed can. Chuck makes the case that parenthood is a real asset in presidential politics, and they assess whether Ossoff, now climbing the prediction markets, has the hunger and stamina for it, plus why Shapiro sometimes reads as a try-hard. They close with a genuinely angry exchange about Bill Cassidy's Blanche vote, the threats reshaping how senators vote, and a Nats-and-Reds baseball detour.
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 84 days out and a six-state primary night ahead
00:45 Previewing the primaries
01:37 Republicans had a worse summer than Democrats
02:49 Trump makes it harder. Congress did nothing to earn reelection
03:14 Why the macro says 30 House seats and 6-7 Senate seats
04:02 Does the nominee even matter in an environment this bad?
05:14 Hillary Clinton's warning about the socialism-communism attack
06:14 In wave years, the losing party always thinks it's found a lifeline
06:45 Where the communism attack could actually work&nbsp;
08:27 Did "Comrade Kamala" actually help Trump in 2024?
09:42 The attack only lands if a seed has already been planted
10:47 The mailbag question: Islamophobia in the Michigan race
11:11 Using El-Sayed's full name isn't even a dog whistle
12:10 Should El-Sayed give an Islam speech?
12:55 Why the consultant advice &mdash; stay on affordability &mdash; is wrong here
14:13 The Obama-and-Reverend-Wright precedent
15:45 Mike Rogers, Hassan Piker &amp; a false attribution in circulation
17:24 Jackie Robinson, Kennedy, and breaking barriers
20:15 The flip side: will a Jewish candidate face the same demand?
22:10 The line each of them may have to draw on Netanyahu
23:02 Fever swamp vs. what voters actually care about
23:33 The insulting premise, and the Catholic parallel from the 1950s
25:05 Tim Scott tells Manu Raju Republicans will have 54 seats
26:51 Why partisans now get punished for telling the truth
28:49 Scott on Paxton, and what you're required to say out loud
30:42 Why they do the live streams &mdash; no election-night patty cake
31:47 The rare politicians who still say it plainly
32:41 AOC announces she's freezing her eggs
33:26 AOC says she's open to 2028
34:45 The El-Sayed factor: a swing-state progressive with more juice
36:23 Chuck's argument: you're a stronger candidate if you're a parent
37:52 Bush, Obama, Biden &amp; families as political assets
38:51 Even Trump's kids softened him in 2016
41:08 The Howard Stern statistic about listeners who hate you
41:24 Ossoff passes Newsom in the Kalshi and Polymarket 2028 odds
42:10 Why Ossoff clearly has the ambition
44:08 Ossoff and Pritzker could bridge the party's divide
45:17 Pritzker's own money and his own record
46:07 Does Mark Kelly have the hunger? Does Wes Moore?
47:47 Where Shapiro crosses from wanting it to trying too hard
48:28 Des Moines in November, and why nobody likes a try-hard
49:18 Cassidy &amp; Blanche&nbsp;
50:40 The part that doesn't get reported: threats to families
51:21 You signed up to put the public ahead of yourself
53:15 Trump tells Punchbowl the voters are angry at Republicans, not him
53:46 Will he actually spend the super PAC money?&nbsp;
54:04 The truth-serum question: would Trump rather be replaced by a Democrat?
54:20 Nats sweep the Reds
55:32 What is wrong with the Cincinnati Reds?
57:42 The Nats' 34-year-old analytics manager

Democrats Should Be Headed For A Blue Wave Election… But Their Brand STINKS

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Introducing: Super Tuesdays with Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd

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Super Tuesdays with Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd

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