Recent polling by Demos AU and Premier National shows One Nation gaining unprecedented support at 21% in Victoria, potentially positioning the party to hold the balance of power in the November state election. Political scientist Simon Jackman analyses whether this surge will hold and how the geographic concentration of votes will translate into seats. The discussion also examines new federal Liberal leader Angus Taylor's political challenges, particularly around housing policy and immigration, as he attempts to win back conservative voters without abandoning the political centre.