Straight Fire with Jason McIntyreStraight Fire – Jimmy Butler to Phoenix? + Clevanalytics founder Clev TA
On today’s episode, Jason discusses why it’s looking more and more likely that disgruntled NBA superstar Jimmy Butler will wind up getting traded ot the Phoenix Suns. Later, Clevanalytics founder and professional sports bettor Clev TA swings by to discuss the NFL Divisional and Championship playoff rounds from a wagering perspective.
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This is straight Fire with Jason McIntire.
What is up straight Fire, Pam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire for Wednesday, January twenty second. Ooh ooh, spicy night in the NBA. We had a trade. It's not Jimmy Butler yet, we'll get to that shortly. I gave out a college basketball play on the Herd, and of course Ducaine gave up like a billion threes and lost, and I got besieged by messages online. O hey, great bic on Ducaine. I click on the profiles, mostly guys who don't follow me but just want to jump on board and say you suck. Of course, when I give out winners, you never hear a peep from these creeps. But such is life, and you know better than anything. We got a great guest today to break down the two conference championship games. My main man, TA, we go back state years. Interestingly, we are aligned on Philly less, so shall we say on Bill's Chiefs. And you know, the stat that I gave out Monday about the Kansas City Chiefs and the penalties on the opponents for in the playoffs has gotten major steam. ESPN picked it up. Warren Sharp picked it up and advanced it a little bit, and now, guys, there's no denying it. Okay. In the playoffs in the last three years, the Kansas City Chiefs are not getting flagged and their opponents are period hard stop. Those are just the facts. I'm not saying there's a conspiracy. I'm not saying it's rigged. That's just what happens. You can tell me, Hey, they're better coached, okay. Sure, coaching staff has been changing continuously. Obviously Reid is there, its bags is there. But the Ocs have changed. Sure, yeah, obviously ten straight games and they're flawless inefficiency despite changes on the roster, on the coaching Staffyeah, no big deal. Just it happens. You know, they're the best coach team obviously. I'll just leave it at that. But you guys, go, you do you fellas you do you. I will continue to find interesting, thought provoking takes and offer them up to you, all right, real quick. The NBA trade that went down yesterday, the Phoenix Suns traded their two thousand and thirty one first round pick to the Utah Jazz for three first round picks. Now, they're not prime first round picks for instance, the first one is the least favorable first round pick this coming draft, the Cooper Flag Draft between Cleveland or Minnesota. Minnesota is not playing well, Cleveland has the best record in the league, and then a twenty twenty seven first round pick that's the least favorable of Calves, Wolves or Jazz and I don't know, Minnesota and Cleveland will probably still be good in twenty seven, and then twenty twenty nine, same deal. Minnesota as is protected. So basically it's not quite a poo poo platter of first round picks. I don't know who's to be enticed by that. Maybe Miami will see. But what is interesting is Utah getting a two thousand and thirty one first rounder, which equates to I believe a sixth grader. Is that? Is that how we do it? But what this is really about is Phoenix needing more assets to deliver Jimmy Butler. Miami obviously was saying, what are we gonna do with a twenty thirty one pick for an All NBA player who's taken us to the finals twice?
We need more?
Three first round picks probably starts to count. Now what's interesting, obviously, Bam Adebayo is not on the table, and Jimmy Butler is the target. I'm wondering if they can pick up one other defender on that team who's maybe undervalued. They're not giving up podcasts, he's very good. I doubt they'd give up the seven foot where it might just have to be Jimmy Butler. They're not going to take on another bad contract. But what's interesting here is Jimmy Butler could could be paired here in short order in Phoenix with Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, maybe Bradley bially unless he goes to Miami, and Devin Booker. That's quite formidable. Now you do have a great defender in Butler who could defend wings. You don't have a defender for Jokic obviously, You've got Kadi and d book Scoring. You know, it's interesting. Kevin Durant has never been much of a leader, right, He's more of been a follower. Nothing wrong with that. I don't know that Booker is a leader. Remember he never won anything in Phoenix, and then Chris Paul shows up, who's a proven leader, and they instantly like go to the finals. So d book not really a leader. Bradley Beal has never been a leader. You get Jimmy Butler, You've got an alpha walking into that locker room. And I'm not saying it's his team because Booker is the identity of the Suns. He's their most popular player. I'm sure he was drafted by them. He's a homegrown talent. But Butler comes in, Hey, uh, you know I took Miami to the finals twice, Katie, would you do?
Oh?
You went to Golden State and piggyback Curry. Oh okay, I see d book couldn't do. You couldn't make a playoffs until Chris Paul showed up. You know, Bradley Beal, don't look at me. Assuming he's even still with the team, Bradley bial might be part of the Miami deal. I don't know why he'd be attractive to them, but the salaries do have to match. So Phoenix already made the move for Nick Richards, who had a nice little debut over the weekend Double Double Action. I had a buddy who is actually from Alaska, and he was like a big time tennis of all sports guy growing up, and we've become friends. He hoops with us, hoop with us this weekend and he texted me, He's like, oh man, what a pickup from my son's Nick Richards.
What can you tell me?
And I was like, bro, I can't tell you shit. I remember Nick Richards had a couple of coffee at Kentucky and then he's just basically been sitting on the bench for most of his career in Charlotte. I mean he was playing twenty minutes a game, you know, but started a bunch two years ago. But they're an awful team, and so he was not really on my radar. And listen, it's early, but he's a seven footer who's athletic, and maybe he kind of sort of could be called upon to maybe not get destroyed by Jokic. But just like contain Yokic.
You can't contain Yokich.
What am I even saying? And so, uh, that was kind of an interesting trait. It's the stars are aligning. It looks like Butler is gonna be headed to Phoenix. If you're interested in, you know, betting the Suns to maybe get to the Western Conference finals or win the NBA Finals, do it before the trade, don't do it after the trade. So it might already be biked in now that the Suns made this move. But yeah, anyways, without further ado, let's get to my main man, TA to break down the NFL Conference Championship weekend.
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports Radio dot com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to listen live. Jason likes to think he knows everything when it comes to sports.
I know what sports dance wants.
But for everything he does, he knows a guy who does.
Let's just say, I know a guy who knows a guy who knows another guy.
All right, let's welcome back to straight Fire, everybody's favorite NFL prognosticator, the legendary Tha, joining straight Fire to talk conference championship. We get only two games left in the season. Ta a little melancholy over here as the season winds down.
Yeah, and then I'm sitting in frigid single.
Digit temperatures in Ohio where it's pretty brutal, So it's kind of depressing along with the fact that the season is.
Winding down here.
Yeah, only two games left and it's been in a wild season. I don't know about you, but I'll just say it's been my worst season ever from a handicapping perspective, and I know a lot of other you know, sharp handicappers are struggling as well. It's just and last week was a perfect example. Think about all the teams that won were essentially outgained or out success.
Rated or whatever you want to say.
I think maybe yeah, even Washington, like they were all outplayed and one because the turnovers.
And just making the key plays at the right time.
And it's just like total you know, encapsulation of what the season has been about for me, at least from a handicap perspective, as you might be able to handicap everything right and you know, there's kind of some flucky plays and you lose. I mean, I'm on the Eagles pretty heavy at minus six, which is the best number at least that when I was available, when I was able to get it that push. But you know, yeah, two missed extra points, you know, and of course at the end, I just knew the Rams were gonna come down and score. So anyway, it's like that, there's just a complete total, you know, that's exactly what the season was about for me. So I'm ready for it to wind up. I love it, but it's it's been a difficult one.
Yeah, weird.
We talked about it with Churnoff recently and he's like, everybody just waits for that underdog to come in the back door there at the end, and it just hasn't really happened this season. Dogs are getting crushed favorites or ruling. Now. I will say this. I mentioned to Cowherd today, I said, hey, uh, you know, in the NBA, if I could just tell you who's gonna shoot better from three, you know, and make more threes to the higher percentage, that that's who's gonna win the game. In the NFL, if I just told you who's gonna have more turnovers, you're gonna lose. I mean basically, if you turned the ball over this past weekend.
You lost. Yeah.
No, that's exactly right. And yeah, it's impossible to predict really.
I mean you look, you look at the Chiefs.
I mean last year they were turning the ball over crazy about and it was, you know, pretty unlucky. And then they had the run in the playoffs where they like, I don't think they turned it over at all, and you know that's they helped them win the Super Bowl and they haven't. I don't think they've turned the ball ball over in eight straight games. And you know, Buffalo is the same way, Like they're they're keeping you know, the keeping the ball and they're not turning it over. And yeah, if you can, if you could tell me that you could probably predict who's gonna win and who's gonna cover a significant margin. But that's always you know, it's not easy to do, and you know it cost all those teams at the end, and you know, little things like even Houston missing, you know, having that that easy kick blocked at the end, and obviously they ended up.
Covering some numbers, you know, the closing line.
But you know most people that took it, you know, eight eight and a half were not able to cover. And so, oh yeah, it's a lot of that fluky things. It's special teams, it's turnovers. And yeah, if you can just get the quarterback with the right you know, with the lowest amount of turnovers and yeah, you know, not make mistakes and you're likely to predict to who's gonna win.
It feels like wacky things happen in outdoor games and you're like, well, you know, you can the weather and wind and snow and include that stuff happens. Lions played indoors and Jared Goff had three red zone turnovers. And now listen, I was at my son's volleyball tournament, kind of half watching the game, and I didn't realize golf was kind of concussed. I saw Bridgewater and I was like, oh, great, it's over. And then I saw the replay and I'm like, do you remember the Michigan Ohio State game where Will Howard took that hard shot early and he never appeared the same. Do you think the same applied to golf.
It's possible, and I definitely think that happened to Will Howard. That's my because he looked totally different after that play. Yeah, and totally than any other game he's.
Played all year. Really and yeah, but I mean a golf I'll say.
I mean he threw the interception into like triple coverage before before that, you know, potential concussion. But yeah, you're never going to see a guy get as bad as that looked, and he got drilled. You know, he's never going to leave the game, So you take your chances with him. But you know, the Lions moved the ball, they had five hundred plus yards of offense.
Jamir Gibbs did whatever he wanted.
But yeah, as you mentioned, I mean they had the crucial turnovers and that was really the difference. And that's what makes Jade and Daniels so special is he just does not make mistakes. He does not turn it over, and that's what has brought them here.
But we know that historically turnover luck flips on a dime. There's no way you can go fifty games without a turnover, you know, Like Jayden Daniels has had a historic run, the Chiefs have had a historic run. Is there any way to handicap Hey, Chiefs haven't turned it over in eighth straight. I'm not saying it's black or red in roulette, but at some point the streak has to end, right like Mahomes in the Super Bowl last year through an awful interception against the Niners. I felt like that should have been the game and Niners could not put them away. But like there's a Buffalo defense that doesn't generate a ton of turnovers, does it?
Well?
I mean, you saw last week they had the Peanut Tillman punch of Andrews's hands.
So like you know, some of the some of the turnover stuff, you know, is quote unquote lucky. But when you're when you have defenders who are kind of taught to do that, you know, you see more fumbles on the ground. Like there's a reason why Peena Tilman had all those fumbles that he forced it and when he was in Chicago, and you know, certain defenses do that.
I mean TJ.
Watt when he comes in, he does the same thing and he forces a lot of turnovers. So what happens after the ball's on the ground, That's where it's you know, essentially a coin flip because it could could bounce anywhere. You know, whoever RIfS the ball at the bottom of the pile and and that's where it gets pretty lucky. But even last week, I mean you had you know Kansas City that I think it was Worthy who caught a ball and from behind, got the ball, got knocked down, it just bounced right back in his chest. So you know, those things are you know, you can't really count on those, and you don't want to putting the ball on the ground.
But you know, the thing with Mahomes is he's just.
Not forcing the ball and he's not going deep with it a lot. Everything's underneath kind of taking what is being given to him, and he's they're forcing a lot of third downs, but they're converting because he's so good with his legs and he just doesn't make mistakes and guys like Kelsey get open. So, you know, I guess in that regard, if you're not going to put the ball in harm's way a lot, from a quarterback perspective, you're not going to get tip balls. You're not going to get you know, a lot of interceptions, so you can kind of prevent that.
But I don't know.
I mean, I think both of these teams are from a Buffalo and Kansas City perspective. I think the odds are pretty low that you're going to see.
The ball in the ground much at all.
It's weird. I feel like a few years ago teams started to employ the two high safeties and that slowed down mahomes and it took people a while to adjust. Josh Josha Allen was rattled by it. Russell Wilson famously but struggled against it. And now what they're doing is it feels like the exotic blitzes and then blitzing and going from man to zone quickly, like a lot of teams are trying new stuff that it almost feels like you're right, Like you said, the quarterback who's not forcing stuff or trying too hard to make a play is ultimately winning. And the run games have been amazing, like Buffalo's run game, whether it's Johnson or Davis or Cook, like everybody's on fire.
Yeah, and I mean we could talk specifically if you want about the Buffalo Kansas City matchup in that regard, but yeah, I mean what Josh Allen is doing, I think a lot of the smart teams, you know, like Buffalo, they're getting you know, when it's if it's third and seven, like they're just they're they're just trying to get five yards, right, or if it's second intent you know, they're not trying to throw past the sticks necessarily because defenses are going to give you, you know, the ball prior to the sticks, and you're just you have such a weapon in Josh Allen, either with the sneak, you know, when you have Philly with the tush push or him, you know, Josh Allen with the ball and fourth and short, like.
You feel pretty good that he's gonna, you know, convert. Same with Patrick Mahomes with his legs.
Like when you have that weapon, you don't necessarily have to get a first down early, and they're getting away with it. I mean, typically you want to get you don't want to get the third down, but the way these teams are are so efficient on these third and fourth and shorts, you just want to get to that situation and then you know, the talent takes over and a guy like Josh Allen takes over. So yeah, instead of forcing it down the field all the time, and you know, turning the ball over like Jared Goff, did you know these other teams are just getting it to the third and fourth and short and using their lives.
It feels like the Eagles started at that, right, Hey, if we can get to third and short, fourth and short and then we'll just trust push it. And now everybody's almost copying that. And Jayden Daniels is the ultimate cheat code. But let's let's drill down for a sec on Chiefs bills. I saw you're right up on Cleve Analytics, which is obviously a great site, and you're saying Buffalo struggles too. I guess is it the middle of the field that they really don't struggle or they have? But full season numbers are kind of weird TA because Milano didn't play the full season and Edmunds had missed some time. I know there are numbers on PFF don't grade out well. But they're really good players and they showed this past weekend. Is your anticipation that one or one of them is just tracks Kelsey and the other spies Mahomes, Yeah.
That's a good question.
I don't know, you know, strategically, how they're gonna play it. I will say, you know, Milano has typically been a great coverage linebacker. This year he has struggled. I don't know if that's you know, off the injury or whatnot. But the Buffalo defense generally, and I you know, I had a little playoff preview and kind of wrote up each team before the playoffs, you know, send it out on Twitter so you can go check that out. But you know, this Buffalo defense is way worse than the numbers will tell you because of those turnovers. They gained the second most you know, expected points added from turnovers on defense this year.
And it's amazing because on offense.
They benefited the most from from the lowest amount of turnovers on offense, So you know the kind of net net they're just turnovers have been awesome for them. But if you exclude turnovers, the defense franks twenty eighth out of thirty two teams. When you look at some of the advanced numbers like EPA and you saw last week, I mean Baltimore, people will realize Baltimore did not punt in that game. The only reason that they lost the ball is just turnovers. They did not punt at all. So you know, this Bill's defense has a lot of holes on it that they likely are gonna I'm gonna say likely, but I think they're gonna lose.
To Christian Benford, their top coverage quarterback.
He's got a concussion. You got knocked out of the game. Now again, it's it's championship week, so maybe he makes one of those miraculous one week recoveries, but you know, losing him is a big deal. He's a really good coverage corners. Again, he's the highest grade graded coverage cornerback by PFF on the Bills. So I think that Kansas City can move the ball in this game. Against Buffalo again, if you assume that Mahomes in this offense continue to not turn it over, and that's what that's all that Buffalo can really do is create turnovers. I mean, they've allowed the third highest rate of opposing offenses from a percentage wise to reach the red zone this year. And again it's the only reason they haven't given up more points because they're creating turnovers. Teams are missing field goals, like there's a lot of self inflected wounds in when they get deep into the territory. So I just don't think you can bank on that against this offense. And I think this Kansas City offense is better than what they showed last week. I mean, we know this Houston defense is good, and so you know they're they're they're way better than what Buffalo is showing. So I wouldn't take what you know we saw last week as you know, a sign that maybe the Chiefs offense is, you know, slowing down.
I think that.
Obviously a little bit of rust early on, but I think with Hollywood Brown to go with you know, Worthy and Hopkins and now Kelsey and you've got the you know checkup, oh and Kareem Hunt on the ground.
I think that this offense is ready to go to the next gear. I actually have the over in this game.
I think, you know, anything under forty nine is is a good number for the over and typical I wouldn't like to do that, you know, in a kind of an outdoor, you know, colder environment in the playoffs, but the weather looks pretty good. These these quarterbacks, I just trust again to not turn the ball over.
Uh, And I think they can make plays.
And I definitely think Kansas City especially will be able to gain chunks over the middle of the field. And you know, I think that they're good for to get to the kind of the upper twenties, at least from a points perspective.
So I'm looking at the earlier meeting, which was in Buffalo, and Mahomes threw a pick on the first series. Buffalo ended up scoring a touchdown, Josh Allen through an interception, the Chiefs end up scoring a touchdown, and then Mahomes on a final last gas drive down nine you know, was picked off. So two picks from Mahomes. I'll just say this, if Buffalo can somehow, you know, it's just the kind of game where you want to take the ball first. If you're Buffalo, get your best stuff, get a lead, and force the Chiefs to play from behind. Because I remember last year man that AFC Championship against the Ravens. Chiefs got the ball right down the field, touchdown, got the ball a second time touchdown, and it was like Baltimore was just screwed. They could not run the ball and the game plan was shot. I feel like an early lead is kind of paramount for Buffalo here.
You know, I don't know about that.
I think these quarterbacks and these teams are so good that not sure, Like are you gonna be like if you if you bet Kansas City and they go down seven to nothing, are you really like shaking in your boots? You're like, No, I got Patrick Mahomes on my my side. So I don't know if it's that much of a of a big deal. I do think that deferring and then having that kind of middle eight if you can get the ball towards the end of the first half and then marry that with the first possession of the second half, just like Buffalo did against Baltimore.
You know, you remember they.
They scored late on their their last drive before the first half, and they got it first in the second half, So it really is a benefit if you can, if you could take advantage of that. So I do think you likely defer here. But I think from a matchup perspective, you know, I was talking about Kansas City before being able to move the ball, I think that the Bills. First of all, I just trust Josh Allen to kind of make plays, obviously with his legs. And you know that first matchup they did not have Dalton Kincaid or Keon Holeman, and not like those guys are elite, you know, offensive players, but those are two weapons. Those are two of his probably top three targets that he's gonna go after. And Kansas City really strugg defending tight ends, especially over the middle of the field. They do not do a good job of that. And so I do think, you know, a from a prop perspective, I think Dalton Kincaid, you know, take a look at that. But I think he's going to be a very important kind of third down possession receiver. Khalil shak here in the slot. It's gonna be big on third downs. The one you know, not only do they struggle defending tight ends, but the Chiefs are awesome defending outside receivers, they struggle against the slot, so you know those are you know, where Shaker and Kincaid really do their work. So I think from that perspective, they'll be fine. And I think the one area that people are kind of sleeping on is, you know, because they started off the season so well, is this Kansas City rush defense has sneakily really struggled to end the season. If you look at things like, you know, yards before contact, which really is a good measure of how both an offensive line is really getting pushed right before you know, how how many yards do you get before your running back gets touched? And the same thing on defense or you're getting pushed around. They were one of the best teams in the NFL, I think, top ten for the first kind of two thirds of the season. When it comes to the yards before contact, they're one of the worst in the last month and a half.
I mean, in fact, like I.
Think they've allowed almost are they've allowed over two and a half yards before contact and four of their last five games, which is significant number.
And you know they are getting beat up.
I mean even Joe Mixon last week, you would not have expected a team with that bad of an offensive line and mixing banged up to have success.
He had eighty eight yards. He looked pretty good.
He got some chunks. So look for Josh Allen. Josh Allen always runs in these situations. He's He's had some big games against the Chiefs and the playoffs on the ground.
Look for James Cook to have a big game. I think not only are they going.
To be able to throw the ball to guys like Kincaid and Chakia, but I think gonna be able to run the ball. So I do think that both teams are going to be able to extend drives, and it might be longer sustained drives, but I trust them both to essentially not punt much.
So I do think that they're going to move the ball.
And I have to ask. And nobody likes talking about it, and everybody's putting out their numbers to bolster their argument. But this whole refs in Kansas City. Nobody's saying the league is rigged. Okay, that's not where anybody's going. But all these people say, oh, in the last seven years, you know penalties are this is I stripped that out. I don't care about the regular season refs. I'm more interested in these high leverage playoff games, the Island games and ta I looked at the last ten Chiefs playoff games. In nine of them, the opponent to the Chiefs had more penalties in yards. So these are good teams doing battle. And the Chiefs in the Super Bowl was even six and six case he had a fifteen more yards. But the other nine games, the opponent's always getting flaged more. I'm not saying that something shady's up. I do find it interesting that for some reason, when the best teams do battle, that the Kansas City Chiefs just don't seem to get flagged for much. And I'm not trying to make it a thing or a conspiracy theory, and it's just a ten game sample size which is tiny, but your thoughts on it's become a thing. Troy Aikman kind of lasted the refs over the weekend. I don't know, just your thoughts in general on the Chiefs and these flags and what have you.
Yeah, I mean, I don't think.
I try to stay away from that secause I don't think it's a conspiracy.
I don't think the it's rigged or anything like that.
Look the star players in every sport, Michael Jordan always would get the calls.
I mean, Lebron gets the calls. Mahomes gets the calls. If you're close to him, you know you're you're gonna likely get a penalty.
I will say, you know, I didn't love that he was you know, the way he kind of dances on the sideline and invites.
You know, he flopped and kind of you know that the one.
Time he's running out of bounce and kind of cut up and then you know, slid late and that caused a penalty. You know that that sort of stuff. I guess his gamesmanship, and you know he's smart to kind of take advantage of that. And that's the other reason, Like he's smart. He knows how to do that. So he's smarter than most other quarterbacks, so he can take those penalties. But you know, I will say, someone who who had Houston last week, it was frustrating watching some of those. And to me, it's more about like why can't we just quickly review that you know, you didn't actually hit his helmet when it comes to a personal foul and just take away the penalty, Like I mean, it just seems so easy to do.
It's not a judgment call. It's either you did or you did it.
But I know, I mean, usually the better teams, the more disciplined teams, don't make mistakes and you're not gonna have as many penalties. So I mean, Buffalo does not commit a lot of penalties. So we'll see this week. It's like the ultimate test. But I personally don't really you know, put too much stock into it. And you know, it's just like you know, close game luck, right, Like yeah, like the better quarterbacks and the better coach teams with the better special teams you know, that don't make mistakes usually do a better job at the end of games and win those one score games. It's like every single year. That's why Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have the best one score record, like every year. It's not coincidence. So I think penalties could be something similar.
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What if I told you I thought the best player on the board was teasing the Eagles down from six to zero and the bills from one and a half up to seven and a half. Any does that sound like a good bet to you? Or you just you still think eagle side is the best one?
Well, well, no eagle side last week, by the way, that's not I'm not talking about last year. That I mean if by letter of the quote unquote letter of the law and kind of a long teaser, it's not an advantageous teaser.
Because you go from six to zero.
I mean you really want to cut through two key numbers three and seven for it to be advantageous. You're more likely than not to just cover the six, you know, if they're gonna win. So I mean I wouldn't I wouldn't do that. I do think obviously Buffalo. I mean, one thing you could do, if your book allows it, is have an open tease if you like Buffalo plus you know, seven and a half eight, and leave it open and then cover it in the Super Bowl, because I besides Washington, there's really no matchup where the spread is going to be more than two and a half. I would think on a neutral like the Kansas City Philly, Buffalo Philly are going to be you know, two and a half to pick, most likely on a neutral So you could just leave it open and cover if you like that side. I'm not saying you would, but you know, you could take the underdog, most likely Philly in that spot and tease them.
Up to close. But you know, I don't know. I don't like forcing teases.
If you don't, and if you're just doing it for entertainment purposes, okay, you know, I don't mind it from a perspective. Honestly, if you're gonna do that, you might as well just tease Washington up from six to twelve, because I don't see them get blown out, especially with the Hurts injury, you know, and we know Jada Dallas's doesn't get blown out, and these teams know which other well, we.
Had some numbers on your site about these rematch third time matchups. Rookie quarterbacks. I don't know, has any rookie quarterback ever made the Super Bowl?
No?
So, there have been five rookies that have made the championship game in the Super Bowl era, zero to five straight up, one and four against the spread. The average margin from a lost perspective is thirteen points per game. Average against the spread margin is almost ten now, to be fair, one of those losses with Brock Purdy on the Niners two years ago when he got hurt after four passes and they got blown out. So it does skew the numbers, But generally these quarterbacks have not done well, if not fared well from a you know, team perspective. Sean Kings the only quarterback if you could believe it, when he was with the Bucks and they lost eleven six to the Greatest Show on Turf back in two thousand. But otherwise I will say the one thing is the quarterbacks. If you look at the quarterbacks in those games that they were really carried for the most part, maybe not perty, but they were carried by their defenses. You know, there's always at a top five level defense that kind of gets you there and the quarterbacks there along for the ride, like a Mark Sanchez, right, Joe Flacco, So this is a little different situation.
He's carrying them.
He's completely different than any rookie I've ever seen, and so I don't really I kind of throw away those stats.
When it comes to a guy like.
Jada Daniels, I just think he's just far exceeded expectations, and like these Eagles have not blown many teams out recently. Like again, these teams know each other. He's too good, you know. So if you, like I said, if you've forced a tease on me, like I said, I won't do it because it's not plus plus evd t's. But to get from six to twelve isn't the worst option there if you wanted to bring Washington up there.
But the third team would have been Ohio State if you, if anybody had the foresight yesterday to put Ohio State in before the Notre Dame game as a three team teaser, which I know is crazy and not smart, but uh, Ohio State was going to win that you knew you're an Ohio State guy. I guess the only other thing with the Eagles Washington just trying to think through it. TA okay. Philly Detroit had not seen Jayden Daniels. They had struggled against running quarterbacks and shocker, they struggled against him. Philly's seen him now twice. They are not going to be surprised by any of the speed. I'm sure those spy him, probably with Bond, who's been incredible. They did. They don't have na Kobe Dean and didn't someone in their secondary get dinged up. Mitchell.
Mitchell hurt his.
Shoulder and he's been awesome, the rookie from Toledo. So yeah, I mean, I guess he's gonna play it, and it seems like it's major, but I don't know. But yeah, he would be a key loss because he's been awesome on the outside. But yeah, I mean from a matchup perspective. Again, I so I had the under in the first time that these two teams players a Thursday night, but that was Jaydon Daniels was still he was banged up like he he that was right after his initial injury, like he was not healthy. He did not run much. Philly did a great job, you know, slowing him down, and they still covered by the I mean they didn't cover, but they were They only lost by I think six, Like this team just does not get blown out.
And then obviously the last time Jalen Hurts gets hurt, Peckett.
Comes in and Daniels has that incredible comeback and he put up just incredible numbers in that game, like.
He just this This is a very tough.
Team to to, you know, to beat by double digits. You know, I know, it's a conference championship. But I just think that this they're gonna hang around. I think that the Hurts injury obviously is huge, like he could not move and he's been he's not been able to really execute in the passing game. Aj Brown just is I don't know what's wrong with him. He's dropping balls, he's he's not getting open. And so when you think about that and you think about it's gonna be really hard for Philly outside of a bunch of Saquan just.
Like a seventy yard touchdown runs to really blow.
Out a team at this point because they're just not scoring enough and they're just not pushing the ball down the field. You know it Hurts is hurt and he can't and you don't you don't really respect his mobility in this game too much.
You know that takes away a big weapon.
And so again I'm not personally I have a seventeen to one Eagles ticket to win the Super Bowl.
I think I was on here before the season.
That was one of my I picked Philly in Kansas City to meet in the Super Bowl for the seasons into my NFL review.
So I'm rooting for for for Philly. To win. I'm not even I'm not even at the game.
I might even hedge a tiny, tiny bit on the Washington money line, But I think that I think it's gonna be a good game, And I just I just don't trust Philly to really expand leads to blow teams out at this point, especially with the injuries and the way Jan Daniels is playing, I don't think he ends up winning. I think it's the type, you know, similar type of game with the Rams where they just kind of hung around and stayed within the number, and I, you know, I would not want to be a Philly fan playing defense in a one scorer game against Daniels with the game on the line.
Like, I just that is a guy.
He's kind of like to me, he reminds me of Vince Young, you know, twenty years ago, right or whatever it was. He's just a guy that scares me to death if he's got the ball late in the game.
So I think it's gonna be a good game.
Bro.
Matchup wise, it's been funny you mentioned Aj Brown. I saw Washington plays one of the highest rates of man in the league, and I just wonder if they will put Latimore on Brown or the rookie from Michigan who had a pretty nice game against the lines. Do they put him on AJ Brown? Because Brown historically has eaten up man coverage And I don't know if the whole reading thing he's pouting, he's had that drop last week. I don't know if that has to do with him just not getting the ball. But this to me shapes up is possibly a big A J.
Brown game, very possibly. I mean, I haven't checked the I think the weather's gonna be okay.
But you know, like you said, Sarah Strill Saints Drill is that his name from Michigan. He's been awesome, he's been he was really good last week.
You know, A J.
Brown would have a big size advantage because he's a smaller corner. But you know, Lattimore he's been okay. I don't know if he's you know, just kind of come back or not. But like he got torched by Mike Evans and you know, he didn't really I think it was like targeted once on him last year last week, so maybe that was just a one week thing coming back from the injury. But yeah, I mean, I think their their cornerback situation is much better than.
It has been this year. But yeah, A J.
Brown does usually torch uh Manda man, so you know that is that is.
A potential option.
And look, I'm not saying that they can't you know, hit occasional big play, but I mean, Jalen Hurts is holding the ball way too long.
I don't know if he's looking for like guys to be just wide open before he throws it.
I'm not a film guy, but seems like he's just you know, he knows that his defense is elite and there he just doesn't want to make the mistakes, so he just can't eat it instead of you know, forcing the ball, which you know, ultimately is probably good for them to win the game. But in terms of a cover a situation, a big number like this it makes it harder.
Yeah. Remember early in the season, I think it was the first three games, so he had two picks in the opener against Green Bay, but I think both of them were bad brutal won against the Falcons and then one against the Saints, and at that point there was a lot of like, hey, Jalen Hurts ain't that guy. And since then he has one interception all season. His passing numbers are way down and he's just not forcing anything. He's just like, I'd rather eat sacks than make a mistake and screw it up. And I don't know, it seems to kind of sort of be working, but you might have to. He might be forced to make plays if if Washington gets out to a lead with UH with Daniels, the way they're their offense is rolling.
Yeah, And I said, when you've got we've got an a leade defense like they've got, you can afford to do that and then just hope that you just kind of hope that Saquad Barkley could break you know, a seven the yard or whatever it is, like it did last week. I mean, it's incredible how he just is just like on the money. You know, his prop what would you guess his rushing propt is?
Have you seen this?
Well? He had a buck forty six in the first meeting. I'm gonna go ahead and guess it's like ninety two.
You know, far off you are it's one hundred and thirty one. No, come on, I swear it's one hundred and thirty.
Have you ever seen one that high for running?
Oh, it's the highest I've ever seen by far.
I think I saw when they played Carolina earlier, and Carolina was just the worst team in the NFL when giving up in terms of rush yards. I think that at that time it was like one fifteen or sixty, you know, something like that. But yeah, this is an incredible I mean I'm looking at it right now.
It's the way you can got that. It's one hundred and thirty and a half right now.
But you don't want to go you don't want to go over.
It's no, no, no, no no.
But you also like are scared to death because he can have a bad game and then he just breaks off a huge run and it goes over. But you know, that's one of those that's just kind of funny. I mean, even like Derek last week, I took his over. I thought he's gonna have a big game where I guess his was right on one hundred.
Huh, you know, one hundred's high. Like one hundred and thirty and a half is incredible.
So what like eighty five, Yeah, he had eighty four.
He only had sixteen carries, and he got really hot in the third quarter and they just really didn't give him the ball the rest of the game.
It's just and they were in two minute drill. So but yeah, I could not imagine taking this number.
But you know, like the average Joe just wants to watch a game in roof for Saquon Barkley and they're gonna take They're gonna likely just bet the over because he just keeps getting for he goes, he goes for two hundred yards.
But yeah, that's that's an insane number. I've never seen anything like.
That's front three for Washington, Payne, Allen, and Newton. I guess he's the rookie. Yeah, rookie from Illinois. Their PFF grades are horrible. I mean, these guys are getting pushed around. You got the best offensive line in the league. There's no way I could bet the under. I can't take the overall. I think that's you just got to stay away.
Yeah, yeah, absolutely, And yeah that's the problem you saw with Jamier Gibson last week, Like my god, every ten yards a pop, I felt like and Sakwak could do the same. So but they have you have to respect the pass game or they can stack the line and.
You know, just force hurts to you know, throw it up to a j. Brown.
But That's the funny thing is I think what Barkley that makes them so dangerous is you can stack the line and you know, maybe he goes for a yard or gets knocked behind the line, but if he gets past that first he makes a cut, it's over. It's a touchdown. And so you're you're really risking it by stacking the box in that situation. So it'll be curious how Washington plays it. But but that's a scary proposition.
So so you're not not rooting interest. Your best guess as to who advances. It's pretty clear you like Philly. It looks like Kansas City is maybe taking money as we're talking. I see it too.
Now, yeah, they took money yesterday or some some groups that I know that bet the Chiefs right away.
Minus one one and a half. I think, yeah, that's what it is.
I mean, I think the fact that Buffalo did not looked great last week. They see what I see in terms of the defense, just outside of the turnovers, is keep getting car up. You know, you're on the road against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Like it's as great as Josh Allen is. You can't really it's hard to back Buffalo at underfield, Galake said.
I'm not. I only just I've taken the over.
I just think there's gonna be points because I think both teams can move it and I just trust, you know, two elite quarterbacks to get over a number like this.
But yeah, I.
Would guess Kansas City and Philly. And again I'm biased because this is what I predicted. I love, you know, I want to be right, and you know, people can read my NFL preview next year after if I got it right, and I can, you know, pound my chest. But I do think that, honestly, that's the most likely outcome. And how are you going to fade Patrick Mahomes right now? I mean, you just can't write like you know it's gonna end at some point, but I.
Just can't do it yet. But I do think it's gonna be a great game.
You think it's good for the league. If the Chiefs win this and go back to a Third Street Super Bowl, seven straight conference, I mean, the next two weeks will be dead. It'll be like, oh gosh, the freaking Chiefs again. Like I feel like, obviously the NFL is gonna be fine either way. But in terms of just general interest. I feel like the Bills are the team that needs to break through first time. Josh Allen MVP Josh Allen versus h you know the Eagles.
I mean I think for I mean the fan think about the Buffalo fans are going to be at that, you know, to make that trek.
Yeah, I think it would be awesome. I again, look, I think either way is a great story.
I mean, Kansas City going for a three P like that's legit, Like that is a real story.
Now.
I know it gets a little tired and the whole Kelsey stuff and whatnot, but like that's a real story and you know it's great players, so you can't knock it.
And you know, but.
If Buffalo makes it, that's a great story too, with Josh Allen doing you know, finally breaking through and you know, this Buffalo franchise and this fan base.
You know, I think either way you're gonna get a good You're gonna get a good matchup.
And then the other side, obviously Philly is really good with Saquon Barkley exciting and uh and then you got Jayden Daniels as a rookie, Like is he's able to carry this? Like that is I mean the first time ever. So there's storyline, the storylines all over the place. I think we're going to get a good matchup either way, so I'm looking forward to.
It all right. TA Cleve Analytics is his site. Check it out. It's definitely worth it. On there multiple times a week all season. Tha thanks a ton to have a great one.
Awesome thanks Jason,
