The Fed Raises Rates to Combat Inflation

In this episode, we discuss the Federal Reserve's first rate hike since 2023 and the energy-driven inflation pressures behind the decision. We examine the latest economic projections, Chair Warsh's comments, the outlook for additional rate increases, and what persistently elevated interest rates co…

Numerous Pressures Push Interest Rates Higher

In this episode, we discuss why long-term government bond yields have climbed to multidecade highs in the U.S. and abroad. We look at the term premium, the U.S. Fiscal Trajectory, and what it could mean for the outlook for rates. To read this week's Sight|Lines, click here.  The views expressed i…

Second-Quarter Earnings: A High Bar Cleared – Mostly

In this episode, we revisit our outlook for second quarter earnings and evaluate how results have compared with expectations. We discuss the strength of earnings and revenue growth, the outsized contributions from technology and AI-related investments, and what investors should watch as questions a…

A New Chapter at the Fed: What Two Meetings Have Shown

In this episode, we explore what has changed at the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh. We discuss the Fed’s shift away from forward guidance, increased policy debate, and the implications for investors. To read this week's Sight|Lines, click here.  The views expressed in this podcast may no…

Coercive Diplomacy: The Managed Off-Ramp Is Proving Bumpy

In this episode, we discuss the latest developments in the Middle East and what they could mean for investors. We explore the relationship between geopolitical tensions, diplomacy, and markets, and why the road to a lasting resolution may be uneven. To read this week's Sight|Lines, click here.  T…

The Warsh Fed’s Five Task Forces: A Balanced Review and Debate

In this episode, we discuss how Chair Kevin Warsh is reshaping the Federal Reserve's playbook. From shorter statements and less forward guidance to a comprehensive review of the Fed's key functions, we examine what may change and what it could mean for markets. To read this week's Sight|Lines, cli…

Second-Quarter Earnings: Lofty Expectations

In this episode, we explore why earnings season matters more than ever. With stocks at record highs and expectations elevated, investors will be looking to see whether strong profit growth can justify the market's optimism.  To read this week's Sight|Lines, click here.  The views expressed in thi…

Our Second Half Outlook: The Rewiring of Growth Creates Some Heat

In this episode, we break down our updated second-half outlook and the forces reinforcing a “higher for longer” rate environment. From firmer inflation and a resilient labor market to structural shifts like AI-driven investment and fiscal pressures, we explore what’s keeping the Fed on hold - and w…

A Managed Off-Ramp Takes Shape: Markets, Inflation, and the Fed

After nearly four months of fighting, the U.S. and Iran agreed to a framework. Markets reacted: oil fell, equities hit record highs, and Treasury yields and inflation expectations eased. We break down the impact across markets and what it means for the Fed going forward. To read this week's Sight|…

Interest Rates Worries: Higher for Longer?

In this episode, we unpack the forces keeping rates elevated, from stubborn inflation and strong labor markets to rising debt, and what it means for the Fed’s next move. To read this week's Sight|Lines, click here.  The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of Stif…