Young people unable to buy homes because of stratospheric price increases are cheering the downturn in some housing markets around the world. But they'd better be careful what they wish for: Frothy housing prices, empty office buildings and even a refusal to pay mortgages by many Chinese have the potential to turn a global economic slowdown into something much worse.

In this season's final episode, we explore the confounding real estate market, where prices in many countries have reached unsustainable levels despite a global pandemic. First, reporter Maria Paula Mijares Torres relates the struggle many low- and middle-income Americans face following rent increases averaging 14% nationwide, with some places like Miami seeing a 41% spike. About 8.4 million people in the US are behind on rent payments, and with the end of many Covid-induced eviction moratoriums, advocates for the poor fear a surge of people will be made homeless.

Bloomberg economist Niraj Shah crunches price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios to determine which housing markets are the frothiest. Topping his list are New Zealand, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Australia and Canada, with the US coming in seventh. While the subprime-fueled financial crisis is still fresh in some people's minds, better mortgage quality and the growth of fixed-rate mortgages means "there is some hope that we are not going to see the worst of this," Shah says.

Stephanie talks global real estate risks with John Authers, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and author of "The Fearful Rise of Markets." The commercial real estate market is "probably the single greatest cause for concern," Authers says, particularly in New York. For developers there, a sharp increase in the supply of commercial real estate in recent years, a steep drop in occupancy rates and rising borrowing costs have created a very tricky situation. Meantime, he sees China navigating its way around a domestic property crisis without triggering a global financial crisis, though not without risks.

Young people unable to buy homes because of stratospheric price increases are cheering the downturn in some housing markets around the world. But they'd better be careful what they wish for: Frothy housing prices, empty office buildings and even a refusal to pay mortgages by many Chinese have the potential to turn a global economic slowdown into something much worse.
In this season's final episode, we explore the confounding real estate market, where prices in many countries have reached unsustainable levels despite a global pandemic. First, reporter Maria Paula Mijares Torres relates the struggle many low- and middle-income Americans face following rent increases averaging 14% nationwide, with some places like Miami seeing a 41% spike. About 8.4 million people in the US are behind on rent payments, and with the end of many Covid-induced eviction moratoriums, advocates for the poor fear a surge of people will be made homeless.
Bloomberg economist Niraj Shah crunches price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios to determine which housing markets are the frothiest. Topping his list are New Zealand, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Australia and Canada, with the US coming in seventh. While the subprime-fueled financial crisis is still fresh in some people's minds, better mortgage quality and the growth of fixed-rate mortgages means "there is some hope that we are not going to see the worst of this," Shah says.
Stephanie talks global real estate risks with John Authers, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and author of "The Fearful Rise of Markets." The commercial real estate market is "probably the single greatest cause for concern," Authers says, particularly in New York. For developers there, a sharp increase in the supply of commercial real estate in recent years, a steep drop in occupancy rates and rising borrowing costs have created a very tricky situation. Meantime, he sees China navigating its way around a domestic property crisis without triggering a global financial crisis, though not without risks.

This famously is the year of elections. So the Stephanomics feed has been taken over by our bonus series, Voternomics. It’s a weekly look at the way geopolitics - and elections - are upending the longstanding assumptions of policymakers and business people around the world. Hosted by Stephanie Flanders, head of Bloomberg Economics and former  BBC economics editor, former government advisor Allegra Stratton and Opinion columnist and author Adrian Wooldridge.

This famously is the year of elections. So the Stephanomics feed has been taken over by our bonus series, Voternomics. It’s a weekly look at the way geopolitics - and elections - are upending the longstanding assumptions of policymakers and business people around the world. Hosted by Stephanie Flanders, head of Bloomberg Economics and former  BBC economics editor, former government advisor Allegra Stratton and Opinion columnist and author Adrian Wooldridge.

Who will win the trade war, and how? If the job market is so strong, why does your paycheck seem so meager? What will drive the economy of the future? Stephanomics, a podcast hosted by Bloomberg Economics head Stephanie Flanders, will take listeners on location each week to answer questions like these and bring the global economy to life.

Voternomics

The Housing Slowdown Could Become a Global Meltdown

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/1cde920f-3c33-4334-af24-aedf01240e5f/transcript

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