Balance of PowerWatch Joe and Kailey LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Washington Correspondents Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. On this edition, Joe and Kailey speak with:
- Mississippi Tate Reeves about his reaction to Donald Trump's vice president week and abortion policy in his state.
- Former State Department Spokesperson and Founder of Polaris National Security Morgan Ortagus about US-China relations.
- Republican Congressman Carlos Gimenez of Florida about his party's approach to trade with China and tariffs.
- Bloomberg Politics Contributors Rick Davis and Jeanne Sheehan Zaino as Democratic Congressman Adam Schiff calls on Joe Biden to suspend his presidential campaign.
- Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall about JD Vance's upcoming speech at the Republican National Convention.
- Bloomberg's Hadriana Lowenkron about the policy discussions happening at the RNC.
- Republican Congressman French Hill of Arkansas about his party's stance towards cryptocurrency and trade policy.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on APO CarPlay and then roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
And now we're joined here in our studios in Wisconsin by the Governor of Mississippi, Tate Reeves. Welcome to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Governor, it's great to have you as we look ahead to the speakers of this evening, and of course the headliner, the vice presidential nominee jd Vance. What are you hoping that he focuses on. What message do the people of Mississippi want to hear from him?
Well, what I will tell you is I believe that jd Vance is the candidate that is most likely to govern like President Trump is going to govern. I also think jd Vance is a huge addition to the ticket because jd Vance's story speaks to rural voters in places like Mississippi, but also rural voters in Wisconsin, the state that we're in now, and rural voters in Ohio obviously, but Pennsylvania and Michigan, and we find ourselves at a time in American history where every day Americans are struggling.
They're struggling because of inflation.
They're struggling because every time they go to put gas in their car, it costs significantly more today than it did four years ago. Every time they go to the grocery store and they buy bread and milk and other essentials, it costs significantly more than it did four years ago. And I believe that JD. Vance's story and what he will tell tonight is going to highlight those facts that he grew up in a difficult environment, and quite frankly, all of those things are true because of policies enacted by the Biden administration that were intentional. They intentionally increased government spending significantly, which led to higher and higher inflation, and it's hurting people back home.
Well, obviously, that spending they came out of COVID followed enormous spending by the Trump administration that added trillions to the debt. And we're talking to economists every day here almost governor who are deeply concerned about a ballooning deficit, maybe trillions more if the Trump tax cuts are made permanent, which could have an inflationary effect, and this problem you're outlining gets even worse.
Well, what I will tell you is just I mean, you don't have to be a math major to figure out that if you have thirty trillion dollars in debt and interest rates are arising as they have done, and let's just say five percent of thirty trillion dollars, we're going to spend a trillion five a year as a country just on interest expense, without even paying back any of the principle. And so I think that these are issues that maybe are not top of mind for every single voter across America, but it's certainly important to those of us that operate in the states.
You know, we have to have a balanced budget.
In Mississippi, when I came in twenty years ago, we had a nearly twenty five percent shortfall in revenues compared to the expenditures of the previous administration.
And what we did is we went and we fixed it.
And so I think good strong policies, a growing economy will lead to more revenues for the government, and we're going to have to get control of spending.
So if we need to get control of spending and everything you just said about how interest rates are higher, it's going to take a lot more just to maintain the high debt levels we have. Why then pursue further tax cuts. Doesn't that not work mathematically?
Well, actually, I will tell you, I believe very strongly that government doesn't have anything that it doesn't first take from someone else. And the reality is that as you look at where we find ourselves, every single American knows better how to spend their money than any governmental entity ever will. Certainly the federal government has proved that, but we have proved it in Mississippi as well, and we try to be smart and conservative with the people's money. But we've been cutting income taxes in our state. In fact, there are nine states in America that have no income tax, so the forty one that have one, Mississippi has the fifth lowest in America, and our economy is booming unlike other parts of the country. Mississippi has the lowest unemployment rate in our state's history right now. Mississippi also has more people working than at any time in our state's history, and that's because we have a tax friendly environment. We have a business friendly environment, We showed during COVID that as difficult as those times were, our people got up.
And went to work and took care of themselves.
We need more Americans in the workforce, we need more tax payers. We need more people pulling the wagon and less people sitting on the wagon.
You're talking about winning over rural voters, and I know that that's very close to your heart for obvious reasons. We talked to Congress from Brian Style the other day talking about the hunting territory in northern Wisconsin that he's looking at. But we've been told by a lot of smart people that this election will be cited in the suburbs, that it will be women, that it will be young black men. What's the message to them.
Well, I will tell you President Trump is currently polling better with young African American men than probably any Republican has ever done this right, And that's because that particular group also recognizes the same thing that every other American recognizes, and that is inflation. The fact that when they go and they put gas in their car, the money that they are earning is going less and less far.
But it's an every days we can talk about a lot of issues you're striking the economy each way.
I think at the end of the day, particularly those who are undecided. I mean, obviously, if you've got the hardcore conservatives on one side and the far left on the other, obviously there are hot button issues that those individuals care about. But the ones who are undecided, those in the middle, those that are independents, those are right leaning Republicans that maybe not have not always voted for Trump. I believe it's pocketbook issues. I believe it is economic message that is going to win the day.
Just because you said pocketbook issues. I would point to a study that was just done by the Peterson Institute for International Economics that found that the tariffs that both jd. Vance and Donald Trump have advocated for a ten percent levey universally sixty percent on all goods coming out of China what amount to an annual cost for the average middle income family of seventeen hundred dollars. Are tariffs the right policy for middle income people in Mississippi.
Well, what I would tell you is the right policy for America and the right policy for Mississippi is for us to bring those jobs that are in China, particularly those production jobs, and those other jobs that are situated throughout Asia, bring them back to America. It's about making America great again. It's about creating jobs for those individuals that we would just mention that live in rural places.
You know, we've got the in our state.
Our message of bringing economic development and better and higher paying jobs to our state.
Is a message that is winning the day.
We've announced three different projects over a fifteen month period of over two billion dollars in capital expenditures in companies that are coming back to our that are building in America, building in Mississippi, and creating jobs that are paying twenty five to thirty thirty five percent above the state average on wages. And that's the message that I think people want to hear is we need to be producing more things in America and less things in China.
Let's pick through a couple of other issues, and I know one that is important to you is abortion. This is something that we've seen addressed in the platform that'll ask you about. But I want to bring our viewers and listeners back to your conversation. I remember it distinctly in twenty twenty two on Meet the Press.
Here's the governor.
What I would say, Chuck is at the end of the day, there is no right to an abortion in the United States Constitution. That the issue with abortions that makes it very different is that there is a life, there is an American child in that womb, and it's incumbent upon those of us who are elected to stand up for the rights of those individuals that can't stand.
Up for themselves.
Governor Reeves on Meath the Press two years ago. Now with this RNC, the platform proved on Monday does not include an abortion ban, a national ban for the first time in something like forty years.
Is that a disappointment.
Well, I certainly support the opportunity for a national abortion ban, but what I will tell you is for that to ever pass the US Congress, it's going to be an abortion ban at twenty weeks or twenty two weeks. Yeah, And there are very few abortions even in states like California and New York as a percentage that are conducted at that late stage in our state. And when we filed suit to overturn Roe v. Wade, arguing exactly what I argued on Meet the Press, that the Constitution doesn't guarantee a right to an abortion. Our entire case was these are decisions that ought to be made by individual states. And so to give you an example, in our state, we enacted a law which I understand is not politically palatable in some other states, but we enacted a law that has exceptions, but does not allow for the right to abortion in the state of Mississippi. My ultimate goal is to save as many babies' lives as possible, and there are a lot of different ideas as to how to make that happen. But the reality is, just because of our case that went before the United States Supreme Court, there are hundreds of thousands of babies that have been born, that have been saved, that are in American society now. And I will tell you that's not the end of it. That's not all being pro life is about is being anti abortion.
We also in our.
State have worked very hard to create a culture where we're investing in moms, investing in babies, investing in pregnancy crisis centers to help those who are in need.
We've made a.
Call out to our churches, to our congregations and telling them how important it is that they get involved and engaged because I believe very strongly that it's our churches and our charitable organizations can do a far better job helping expected moms than any governmental entity can. It's just a fact that governmental entities tend to be inefficient, even in states like mine that are focused on this issue.
Well, Mississippi also, and I know you were just talking about some of the economic statistics you're proud of, the unemployment rate, etc. Consistently has one of the highest child poverty rates in the country. Do you see no relationship there between very restrictive abortion laws and children who Yes, thousands of them perhaps have come into existence because of that law, but their lives may be a poorer quality for it.
Well, I can tell you this. I would much rather see.
A baby that is not killed in the womb or otherwise that has maybe a challenging upbringing. What we're trying to do is improve education to give every kid an opportunity for success. We have had some real progress being made in our state, but look our state and virtually every other state. There are very few societal problems that can't be solved by more people having better and higher paying jobs. And that's where our focus is. And we have a laser focus on it in Mississippi, well, to.
Put a finer point on it, Mississippi has the highest fetal mortality rate in the nation, highest infant mortality rate, highest pre term birth rate, Black women nearly three times more likely to die due to childbirth than white women.
Is that the cost of a pro life policy?
I do not believe it's the cost of a pro life policy. I think that, as is often the case, there are areas in which we can improve. We are trying to address these issues. We have done certain things. I'm not I do not support a medicaid expansion, yet we have done things like guaranteed medicaid for any pregnant mom in our state. We just did that during this legislative session, just this past a year ago, we passed legislation to allow for medicaid expenditures used to expected mom could only get Medicaid up to two months after childbirth.
We worked very hard with our state.
Health officer and one of the things that he in his studies determined, which was surprising to me because when I looked at those statistics, I just assumed it was really young people, teenagers, etc.
That were having these challenges.
And that's not all the case, most of these terrible outcomes, and they are terrible, they're tragic, but most of these terrible outcomes are actually older females that are having not their first child, but their second child, and typically it's their second child within a twelve to fifteen month period. And so because of that, we thought that we would at least try the process of giving those moms that have babies. Rather than two months of medicaid post delivery, we're going to give them twelve months of medicaid to ensure that they continue to go back to their ob continue to go back to their physicians, so that those individual physicians can help coach, can help teach, and can help do the work to try to drive those numbers down.
Governor, we just have a minute left. But given what you said about wanting to bring more babies into the world, if not a national abortion policy at the federal level, what about federal protections for IBF.
Look I support of protections for a If I'm a supporter of that particular policy, and whether it's done at the local level or at the state level, or done at the federal level, that'll be a debate that we have upcoming. But I do not believe that we should we should eliminate that option for potential moms because again, I believe that we need to protect babies and we need to love life and get get more and more policies in place to give kids an opportunity for success.
Long term Governor, thank you for spending time.
With us talking about some pretty serious issues. We appreciate it.
Thank you so much for having.
Them a great convention.
Yes, indeed, Mississippi Governor st reeves with us in studio in Milwaukee. Coming up on Balance of Power, will assembled our political panel. They're back Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano on day three of the convention, alongside Kaylee Lines. Oh, Matthew, it's next on Balance of Power. On Bloomberg TV and radio.
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Thirty alongside Morgan or Tegas, founder of Polaris National Security, former State Department spokesperson during the Trump administration.
Lovely to see you at the table.
Thank you.
But the convention's going well for you, and it's great that you're here today because this is Geopolitics Day, International and national Security as a theme at this convention.
We're going to hear from JD. Vance tonight.
What doesn't love the direction that the United States has gone in with Ukraine?
For instance? What are we going to learn in that speech?
So it's interesting that it is foreign policy national Security Day, which is what I've done for the past twenty years. That never happens at a Republican convention, right, foreign policy is never the theme of an entire day, and I think from a Republican perspective, it just goes to show how wrong things are going around the world. We think, you know, obviously, in August of twenty twenty one, we saw thirteen of our best young men and women killed and that disastrous withdraw from Afghanistan. We of course in the Trump administration, I was a part of the Abraham Accords team. We handed historic four historic peace deals over. Then you have Afghanistan fall. Then of course you have Russia, you have putin in Bade Ukraine, and then last year on October seventh, we saw the horrific murders from Hamas invading Israel, and I would I'm sure we will get reminded tonight. Ten months later, we still have five Americans that are held hostage by a terror regime. Not only do you have the president of the United States with an attempted former president of the United States with an attempted assassination over the weekend. As I've been saying for years, this isn't new news. The Iranian regime has active plots on US soil against former President Trump, against my former boss, Mike Mompeo, Brian Hook, and other senior administration officials. It's unprecedented that an enemy state of the United States would have these many plots against officials where they require for the past three and a half years, twenty four to seven security never happen in US history. And then, of course, you know, you're worried about what's happening with China around the world, and I think that Americans are very concerned. They're not only concerned about what's happening at the grocery store, but they're concerned because there feels like there is a chaotic world out there, and that nobody is really in control.
Well, so let's pick a few parts of the chaoshaw. Well you mentioned, for example, the war in Ukraine, which we know that jd. Vance is not an advocate for continuing to fund in the US. He thinks some kind of negotiated piece is the most realistic outcome. President former President Trump, of course, has said he could end that war in one day. Do you actually believe that what would a Trump Vance ticket by president and vice president ultimately mean for a resolution to that war?
So?
JD.
Vance is a good friend of mine. I think he's a great pick, but it is the president of the United States, if Trump is reelected, who sets the foreign policy. And he does that with the Secretary of State, and so the foreign policy will be up to the president having served in the last two years of his administration. And by the way, I've served in four administrations, Republicans and Democrats, so I've got a lot of background here. In the last administration, for the last two years, we actually provided lethal weapons to the Ukrainians. We had more sanctions and more actions against Russia than any president in modern history since the Cold War, since Reagan. And so when you look, not only were we providing lethal weapons to Ukraine. We were renegotiating new Start, we were sanctioning Nord's dream too. This is an energy discussion that I know you guys have.
Had on Bloomberg.
Why does that matter, because it's not like we're pontificating about what foreign policy would be. We know that we actually took a very strong stance against Russia and supportive of Ukraine in the last administration. Unfortunately, there's a series of probably ten to twenty different deterrence failures from the Biden administration that led to where we are today. I'm one of those Republicans who are incredibly critical of the delay of weapons over the past two years, unless if you look at it from an economic perspective, you know we have. The truth is that the Russian economy is doing better than it was before the invasion. The initial sanctions tranch and I spent years of my life at the Treasury as an analyst doing sanctions. The initial sanctions trench that the Biden administration did with the Europeans was fantastic, but it was never followed up on secondary sanctions. We never put never took Russian banks off the market, We never prevented them from exporting oil and energy or from their minerals and mining, and so you know, even our LNG export ban in January, for example, we've seen billions of dollars twenty one billion dollars just in twenty twenty two that Russia gained from their energy exports that they were able to use to fund their war machine. So the sad reality is they actually have figured out how to circumvent our sanctions and they have this what I call supply chain of terror between Russia, Tehran, North Korea, and China where they were able to resupply themselves from ammunitions perspective with drones, ballistic hardware. They're not They're actually resupplying themselves faster from a munition's perspective than the West can. And that's I think should be incredibly concerning to all of us.
Well, it's interesting, I don't know if you're implying that a Trump two point zero would pursue secondary sanctions, because we've asked a lot of lawmakers.
I would operate it.
Mere That's really interesting, Yeah, cause Donald Trump says he can end this war on day one, that it's a phone call, this thing is over. You don't need secondary sanctions in a world like that. You've been in this game.
For a long time. Do you take a commander in chief seriously talking like that?
Yeah, I mean, listen, I think he has a There's no doubt if you look at it from a policy perspective and not a writer perspective. We were much tougher on Russia than the Biden ministry.
End the war in one afternoon.
Well yeah, I mean, listen, we don't know if Trump is elected. We have no clue what we will inherit in January twenty twenty five, So who knows what you're going to get there? So you'll have to deal with the situation there. Obviously, he's going to have to have a tough negotiation. So you ask yourselves the people now who are negotiating to get five Americans out ten months later from a terrorist group. They can't get these Americans out. They can't finish a negotiation between Israel and Hamas. These are the people that you think will be better negotiators than we are when we negotiated the abrahamccards. Sorry, I know the negotiators. I was a part of the team. I'd bet on the Trump negotiating team every day of the week.
Who are you betting on will be Secretary of State as part of that team.
I think that he has a ton of people to choose from. I don't know if these people are interested, but I will just tell you what I think. Rubio is incredibly impressive. Bill Haggerty my senator. Listen, I'm biased. I'm from Tennessee. He's my senator. Rick Garnell has a very close relationship. Tom Conton is another senator who's been in the foreign policy side for a long time. So I wouldn't be surprised if the President picks an ally from the Senate.
All right, Morgan, it was great to have you here in the LAKEY appreciate your time. Former State Department spokesperson Morgan or Tagis, We appreciate it.
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And I want to continue this conversation on China. Now we're joined by a member of the House China Select Committee Congressman Carlos and Menez of Florida, who's here with us in our studios in Milwaukee on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Congressman, thank you so.
Much for your time.
We talk a lot about China because Jade Vance, just earlier this week, after it was announced that he was the vice presidential pick, said that it is the number one threat the US faces.
Yes, it is for now and the foreseeable future. China is the number one threat that we face.
And how do you expect a Trump Vance administration would address that. Is this purely tariffs or is it something else?
No, No, it's a Look, China has made no secrets that it wants to be the number one economic power in the world. It wants to be the number one military power in the world. They're now aligning themselves with Russia and North kore Iran to create a new world order. And the new world order doesn't doesn't include the United States of America. So that is the number one threat. It's a it's a very brutal communist dictatorship. It oppresses its own people, it's accused of genocide, it uses slave labor, And I've been saying for a long time when we need to start to decouple from China as soon as we can. Much of our supply chain comes from China. We've become way too dependent on China. We need to bring back manufacturing to the United States, especially manufacturing that deals with our security, our defense industries.
You know we're lacking. Look in World War Two.
During World War Two, for every for every carrier that Japan built, we built six, and so we outproduced Japan.
Right now, China holds.
An edge of two hundred and thirty two to one in shipyards. That's just one example of why China is, to me the biggest threat that we face, not only US, but the world face and now in.
The foreseeable future, you talk about tea coupling.
Congressman, there's a Bloomberg report out today that has led to some pretty tough moves on Wall Street. We're watching semiconductor stocks fall sharply. And we've been through this before with trying to keep in Nvidio chips, for instance, away from China. But this report now suggests the Biden administration is considering using the most severe trade restrictions available if companies keep giving China access to these advanced chips.
Would Donald Trump do the same thing.
I think he would.
I think that he understands the threat that China poses.
They frankly stole munch of the stuff they're selling to us right now.
They stole on us. All right, we invented the chips. Now their threat to Taiwan. Taiwan controls eighty percent of the chips, right, and so if China were actually to invade Taiwan and actually then control Taiwan, they've controlled ninety percent of the chips in the entire world, which is kind of like what they do in everything they do. And so they subsidize an industry, They target an industry, soidize it. Then they fled the market, the world market with that with that product, they drive all the competition out of business, and then they become the sole source.
Right.
That's a pretty good way to you know, run a business, but it's not a way to be, you know, a good partner in.
The world stage.
And so I wasn't like this before, you know, I thought, maybe, you know, you you open up China and trade, et cetera, and then they'll they'll find that, you know, democracy, democracy is the right way.
But they've gone the other way.
When did you change?
I changed when I went to China.
I went to China when I was the mayor of Miami Dade County, thinking that, well, maybe we can get some Chinese transportation accets for Miami Dade County, et cetera. Okay, maybe they get invested in Miami Dade County. And when I walked out, I said, I want nothing to do with them, zero. Why because every time that I that I was dealing with supposed to be a company, all right, I was dealing with the executives of the company.
There's always a.
Couple of people right over there, okay about that that whenever I asked them a question, they would always look to those people over there. That was a Chinese Communist Party, the PRC and the CCP was there, okay, And so yeah, I said, well, no, not really. And then I didn't see the sun for about two weeks when I was there because with all the coal they were burning. And so here they are a champion supposedly of green energy and part of the Paris Climate Accord, and yet they are polluting. You know, they're the world's biggest polluter by far. So no, I didn't like the way they did business. I didn't trust them, and so I came away completely different opinion than when I walked into China.
So that was very beneficial to me. And you know what, President.
Trump was right, Senator Marco Rubio, who I'm pretty good friends with him, he was right.
Yep, they're the biggest threat that we have.
Well, you bring up Senator Rubu, another Florida man obviously who was not selected for the vice presidential pick. But Florida is an interesting case study. Is there has been suggestions, given abortion, for example, that it may be some a state in which Democrats could more easily play this cycle. I'm I'm sure you probably don't actually believe that, but we are seeing interesting demographic shifts, even if it's not an entire state being up for grabs. Yeah, Latino voters going over to Donald Trump, same with black voters. And what do you assign that to? Why is that happening?
You know, Ronald Reagan once said back in I think back in the eighties or maybe in the eighties here when he was president of that Latinos, Hispanics or Republicans, they just don't know yet. They're starting to figure it out. We hold our same values. We're you know, we have family values. We're people of faith, we believe in hard work, we believe in the American dream, and so and we are Americans who want the same thing everybody else does, you know. So, yeah, they're coming over. We're coming over. And no, Florida's not in play. Florida is going to go big time to President Trump. Even in Miamide County, my home county, which is pretty you know, it was historically much a big Democratic stronghold that's lessening by every single election. And you see that in the polling down. You see that in the results from sixteen to twenty one, from sixteen to twenty to twenty two, the huge shift in Miami Dade County itself. And if the Democrats don't come out of Miami Dade County.
With a huge lead or buffer, right, they're toast. And so they're not going to come out of Miami Day County so much.
I think I think Donald Trump has a really distinct possibility of actually being the first Republican president in a very long time to actually win Miami Dade County.
Well, at this Republican National Convention, the party has more than seventy influencers as they are known, credentialed as part of this convention to try to deliver the message, reach out to younger people, talk about the platform, and so forth, many of them using TikTok as a platform to do that.
Does that bother you?
Yeah? It does absolutely?
Should they do that?
I my advice.
Look, I mean I know that that there's still the campaigns. There are over one hundred million users of TikTok. I understand that, including Donald Trump. But eventually yep, but eventually, look, we passed, you know, we passed legislation on that that TikTok needs to divest itself from a Chinese communist influence or divest self from ownership within six months or also a year and then or else it has to, you know, cease operations in the United States. So TikTok has concerned me, continues to concern me. But you know, as long as there's still over one hundred million users, I understand the reasons why, But does it bother me?
Yeah?
It bothers me.
Well, thank you for bringing us your view from the Select China Committee and from here in Milwaukee.
Congressman, it's great to see you at the table. Thank you.
Florida Congressman Carlos Semen is with us here on Balance of Power especial once again from Milwaukee on what is now day three of the r NC, And Kaylee, we're not only covering the Republican National Convention, but a lot of headlines that have to do with Joe Biden.
He's about to do another interview today on Univision.
And now this Congressman Adam Schiff, a Democrat, obviously now calling on Biden to drop out of the race. This is according to the Los Angeles Times. Shift, of course, is running for Senate in the state of California. We have had seen this trickle trickle of Democrats coming out in favor of Joe Biden leaving the race. It was on pause for a bit after the assassination attempt last weekend of Donald Trump, but Adam Schiff apparently joining the ranks.
He had been talking with donors saying that the Democrats would lose, according to reports. Now he's saying it out loud, it seems, Kayley, this is something that we'll talk about coming up later with our political panel.
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Not just on Republican politics, but in fact democratic politics and specifically the Biden campaign. Kaylee, you know you're on something when Donald Trump takes to truth.
What was the post?
From a political standpoint, Donald Trump writes, an unprecedented event is happening.
The Dems are.
Trying again to get Biden off the ballot, and that's, of course because a prominent senator has just waited.
Yeah, we have had a number of voices weigh in obviously at this point, well over a dozen members of Congress, sitting members Congressman Adam Schiff, the Democrat from California, who is running to be a Senator from that state, now calling for Joe Biden to drop out of this race. In part, his statement says, a second Trump presidency will undermine the very foundation of our democracy. And I have serious concerns about whether the president can defeat Donald Trump in November.
And as we've.
Learned in recent week's show, he is not the only one. The question is does Joe Biden have those concerns about his ability to feed Donald Trump?
Well, that's right.
A lot of questions here that we pose to our panel. Rick Davis, the Stone Court Capital is with us, alongside Genie Shanzano of Iona University, Bloomberg Politics contributors. They are our signature panel. How nervous does this make you?
It does so. Adam Schiff was reported to have said this to private donors before. It is something that he is concerned about, not just that we lose at the top of the ticket, that they can't hold the Senate and that they lose Congress. And coming from Adam Schiff, this is an important statement and I am curious to see if others do follow. We also understand that the President had words with Jason Crowe, a war hero in the House, who was yeah, who was saying that, you know, President Biden, apparently people aren't getting the message of what you positive things you've done on foreign policy, given the convention is about foreign policy tonight, and the President responded by saying, you need to do better job getting out and speaking on my behalf. But it is Joe Biden who's got to speak on his own behalf, and that has not proven to be something he is capable at this point at least of doing and reaching voters and convincing Democrats that he should stay on the top. I mean, Rick just told us a while back seven out of ten saying he should get out. So he can tell Jason Crow he needs to communicate better. But Joe Biden has to own the fact that he is misstepping on communication on his own behalf.
Okay, so let's talk about some of that communication. As we know, yesterday he sat down for an interview with Ed Gordon of BET News. Excerpts of that have now been released, and in part Brick according to what he said to be et he says that if some medical condition emerged and his doctors told him it was a serious medical condition, then he would consider dropping out of the race. He says his doctors have not told him that, to be clear, But is this the kind of thing you should be saying when you're trying to plead your case.
Well, maybe being eighty one is a medical condition on to itself. Look, that's a big departure from where he was just a day ago, where he was reiterating that only the Almighty could get him out of this race. Now you know where there are cracks, there's a break, and we know that Adam Schiff's comments only reflect a much broader debate going in to through the Democratic Party that just hasn't broken out publicly. Right, there's a universal concern about this ticket's ability to win, and the fact that Republicans are doing better all over the ticket. They have a reason to be concerned. And yet the time is running out. They have a convention coming up in three weeks, and they have a nominee that they want to try to dump, and there's only so much time to do that. They have to prosecute a campaign in the fall, and they are not ready for it. And this is the kind of thing that I think will just fester now because even Joe Biden, President the United States, has said there's a condition under which I will get out.
Of the race.
This call that you mentioned Jeanie with House Democrats including Congressman Jason Crowe, Donald Trump and some reporters got their hands on the zoom call, which is why we know about this.
This was not public.
Donald Trump said, you saw what happened recently, in terms of the meeting we had with NATO, I put NATO together. Name me a foreign leader who thinks I'm not the most effective leader in the world on foreign policy.
Tell me who the hell that is? He yelled? Is that kind of trumpy?
For a moment, you think you are reading Trump's words, and it is that kind of argument to a war a hero like Jason Crowe. You know, that makes Democrats feel uneasy or more than uneasy about what is going on. The reality is, people in Congress know that their future in the future of the Democratic Party, and quite frankly, for many Democrats, the future of the country depends on keeping Donald Trump out of the White House, and they feel that they are at risk right now, and so they are desperate for the president to look at the data that they are seeing on the ground, particularly those folks in red districts or purple districts who feel they should be running ahead of the Republicans and they could be doing a better job at the top of the ticket remains two weak, and the bar the president keeps moving is problematic. First it's God, then it's the data. Now it's his health. He should look at what the people are saying, give us a better choice. You've done a fabulous job. Step out and we will thank you. But give us somebody who can move this ticket forward and keep Donald Trump out of the White House.
Well, if you listen to what fifteen thousand voters are saying across the seven swing states that were surveyed in interviews by Blue Labs that just released a polling memo, they said effectively that basically all other Democrats would do better than Joe Biden. Alternative Democratic candidates ran ahead of Biden across those seven swing states by an average of three points. Nearly every tested Democrat performed better than the president, including Vice President Kamala Harris. But Harris runs behind the average alternative. So it's one thing to have the question about the fate of Joe Biden. It's another about who would step in in his place. Is Vice President Harris going to be just as big of a problem for Democrats potentially?
Look, I think that once you crack it open, once you start having this discussion that says, you know, somebody other than Joe Biden, then I think all the cards go on the table. I think you start looking for who's the best candidate to run against Donald Trump, and I think you've now pointed out what I think a lot of Democratic strategists I know would prefer find me a governor from a targeted state in the northeast, like Michigan, like Pennsylvania, where we have a chance of locking down a couple of the key blue wall states in order to prosecute a campaign. I mean, there are going to be lots of reasons in addition to the pulling data that Democratic strategists are going to think through how to manufacture a ticket if it starts with no more Joe Biden. I don't think there's a right to the nomination by a sitting vice president. If the president in the top of the ticket withdraws.
That's important because a lot of people think that she does deserve that. But we're also talking about this idea of what a mini primary, maybe a series of town halls or debates. I think Rick has been implying that a deal needs to be made here, Genie, what would Democrats think if there was an announcement of a new ticket.
It would not fly. I mean they are going to have to hold we saw, like James Carville others have been talking about how they could do this. There is no easy way to do this. But if Joe Biden decides to step down, I don't think somebody can be anointed from a back room. That is not the democratic way of doing things. They are going to have to find very very quickly at this point a series of town halls or some methodology of allowing people on the ground to hear from these folks, whether it's Shapiro, whether it's Whitmer. You know, there's a lot of people Gavin Newsom and many others hear from them and have a voice in the decision anointments. We go right back to sixty eight. They don't work quite so well, and nor should they well.
I thought it was very interesting last night in her speech, Nikki Haley specifically talked about Kamala Harris when she was talking about how during the course of her primary campaign, she said, a vote for President Biden is a vote for a President Harris, and she hit that repeatedly. I wonder if we'll hear more of the safe inter options over the next two days here at the RNC. Rick Davis of Stonecourt Capital and Jeanie Shanzena of Iona University. Our political panel will be sticking with us. We'll be back with you in just a few minutes. But let's get some more insight into what exactly we could expect to hear in tonight's speech. Is Bloomberg Tyler Kendall is here with a preview, and of course the headliner tonight is jd Vance Tyler and the theme is foreign policy.
Yeah, hey, Cayley, Well, it's interesting that Jade Vance's speech comes on the night when foreign policy is the theme because he's been one of the staunchest opponents to Ukraine aid in the Senate. Now, I've had the chance to catch up with him multiple times in the halls of Congress throughout the year on this issue, and he has been consistent that one of the biggest reasons why he is against this is that he wants to see the US defense industrial base revitalized.
First.
Interestingly enough, that was actually the argument that got by partisan approval for that big supplemental security assistance package that's a to Ukraine, Israel, and the Indo Pacific. But the difference here, so we saw by Parson, lawmakers talking about how this would create more jobs and revitalize our factories. But the difference here when it comes to Vance is that he wants to see our stockpiles replenished first before we send those weapons abroad. And he normally talks about this when we're talking about competition with China and China boosting its own domestic manufacturing, and also when it comes to American jobs building this equipment instead of sending those jobs overseas. So Kaylee, We're definitely going to be watching how Jdvance threads the needle on Ukraine, aide, and then also on China, which shortly after he received the nomination called the US's biggest threat.
Of course, JD is the headliner Tonight's JD. Vance Tyler. But we just got our first glimpse of the official speaking schedule. Who else are we going to hear from?
Yep, Well, we're going to hear from foreign President Trump's son, Donald Trump Junior, as well as some other members of Congress. That includes Congressman Michael Watz of Republican from Florida, who's a veteran and also serves on House Foreign Affairs. That kind of goes with the policy and the theme of foreign policy tonight. Also, Doug Burgham is going to take the stage. He of course, was one of those names floated around as a potential vice presidential pick for former President Trump, and now there's talk about whether or not he could end up with a cabinet position and also his ties to some big donors that might help the Trump campaign moving forward.
Really interesting.
Doug Bergham not with the rest of the runners up we saw last night. Tyler Kendall, thank you, reporting from Milwaukee for Bloomberg as part of our coverage here at the Republican National Convention. As we now reassemble our panel, Rick Davis at Stone Court Capital and Jeanie Shanzino Ioni University are with us here in Milwaukee with a lot more to talk about ahead of tonight. We mentioned some of these names already. What does that mean when you see a Burgham like that not lumped in with all the other losers last night? Does that mean Donald Trump has bigger plans for him? I say, you think secretary literal?
Yeah?
No, I think that it's definitely a status symbol, right. You know, there's a hierarchy to where you have, what day you have the speech, and what time of the slot you have. So he's getting an A slot on a on a B night, okay, And so I think it's definitely shows how much cooperation he's given to the campaign, how much they think of him as a surrogate.
Uh.
And I think you'll see him a lot, you know, in the fall campaign promoting the ticket. So yeah, I think it's a definite endorsement of Governor Burgham's rise in the Republican Party.
Well, so the question becomes, does Governor Burgham have a role in second Trump administration? Because it's not just about Senator JD. Vance and the vice presidential nominees, also about what the rest of the cabinet is going to look like? Is the speaker itinerary a peek into what Donald Trump's cabinet? To you boy, okode Genie.
It absolutely may be. And that is a fun bingo game to play. Who's going to be in this cabinet? And I think Doug Burgham, I mean I remember when he announced his run, so many people outside of his home state said who. And now, of course he is almost a household name, so he is somebody who could very well be tapped for the cabinet. He has an awful lot to bring to the cabinet. He of course represents a more I would say established traditional view of the Republican Party, so he would be a really interesting pick. But there are so many others out there, and we're hearing from some. But the thing I like about Doug Burgham today is he may break up some of what will be the sort of more red meat we will hear from people like a Matt Gets or you know, some of the other folks who we know are going to be speaking. Donald Trump Junior, who is obviously not only son but one of the president's closest advisors, and with Tucker Carlson, likely had a big hand in the decision to appoint Givan. So it's gonna be I think one of the most interesting fun nights if I can say that at the convention.
Well, how lucky are all of we to be here in Milwaukee to bear witness. Rick Davis of Stonecard Capital and Jeanie Shanzo of Iona University, our Bloomberg Politics contributors, Thank you both so much.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo.
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Let's have the voice now.
Bloomberg Hadriana Lowencron, who has been covering this convention for US in Milwaukee. Coming off a remarkable weekend. Adriana was a witness to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump at that rally in Pennsylvania. It's great to see you at the table. Thanks for joining us. You've had quite a week. You've seen a lot of wild things, and I wonder how you're connecting the dots in your own line between what you saw firsthand on Saturday. So what's unfolding right now in Milwaukee? We've heard a lot about unity. Are you seeing it?
Are you feeling I definitely am. I mean, this was a historic event, and you know, I'm glad I'm safe. You know the former president is safe, and you know the fact that we are still here carrying on business in a sense as usual. It's still something that I'm trying to wrap my head around. But of course notable because the goal here for the Republican Party is to be united as Republicans are trying to take back the White House. And so we know from our reporting that the former president who's set to speak tomorrow, has revamped his speech to do just that. We know that both his former rivals on the trail, Ron De Santis Nikki Haley, they came out kind of throwing your support and trying to do just that, which is unite the party.
Well as we consider the idea that it is business as usual, I guess that's just means you know, the is still ongoing, because I'm imagining Milwaukee is not usually like this with the security barriers that are up in the checkpoints. I mean, it is pretty intense here towards for good reason. But talk to us a little bit about that going in and out of this convention. Just how tight that security is, especially in the aftermath of this past weekend.
Yeah, I mean it's definitely a process to get from A to B. If you look at the map, I think, oh, I only have ten minutes to get there, it should be fine, and then you find out you go over a bridge, over another bridge just to go back to where you are. But there definitely has been an increased security presence. You're going through the metal detectors, which I will not there were metal detectors and security at the rally and previous rallies as well. I've been doing this for so long, it was definitely unexpected. But yes, you can feel that height intensive security here, but you also feel the excitement from people who are here.
I don't know if you've had a chance to spend much time inside the hall, but with Saturday in mind, we're seeing delegates on the floor showing up with bandages on their ears. This has become one of the I guess novelties points of tribute in this convention hall. In some cases just a piece of white paper stuck to the ear.
How does that hit you when you see it?
Honestly, the first thing I thought there was that scene in Mean Girls where you have that you know, the person who has power and is respected to doing one thing and then everyone everyone else doing the same thing following in the sas. But again, it really shows he is the party's leader. The fact that he after the assassination attempt took place, stood up, you know, with the fists in the air. He was trying to remind everyone and let everyone know things are going to go on. That has been kind of a pattern that we've seen with his legal woes, with the trial, fundraising off of all of these things showing everyone that he is back, He is in power, and we're really seeing that here well as we talk.
About him being in power. Obviously, he had a great hand in the platform that was adopted at this convention, including the lack of a federal abortion band call for the first time in decades, for example. There was a lot of talk coming into this convention though to what extent Donald Trump would be communicating with the Heritage Foundation when it comes to Project twenty twenty five. This has been an attack line from the Democrats. They are running with this. Donald Trump has tried to him distance himself from it. I believe you've been at a Heritage Foundation event or two while here in Milwaukee. What is your sense of what that relationship actually is when it comes to these policy ideas, right, So.
I mean, as you said, we know that a lot of the people who put this together were former allies of the president. So for him to come out and kind of distance himself, we have our reporting to say the opposite. And so the reason I went to this Heritage event was to really get a sense talk to some of the people there and see how they were addressing Project twenty twenty five. You know obviously how Democrats have been landing that we have what Trump has said, but this gave me the opportunity to speak to people there. And you know, Tom Homan from our ICE was there and he and I chatted for a bit. He kind of said he didn't have much to do with it, but he did say that in general, it's common for think tanks to kind of put forth policy proposals, and he did say that at the end of the day, it is going to be up to Trump to decide what to do if he were to get reelected.
Well, were they talking about Donald Trump connecting the dots or are they running cover for him when it comes to twenty twenty five.
Well, when I spoke, when I spoke to Kevin Roberts, who kind of at the Helm of Heritage Foundation, he said that there is what the RNC is doing, there's what the campaign is doing, get the Heritage is doing. But he did say there is an overlap.
So take with that what you.
Will, all right, And I guess we will. We'll see how this is messaged at the Democratic Convention in Chicago as well more it I am sure that we will and Hadriana, of course, we'll be there with us too. Bloomberg's Hadrian alone and Crown great reporting, and we also are glad you are safe. Thank you so much for joining us from here in Milwaukee now on set in the steat that he Adriana is sitting. And we had several guests yesterday, including one that is not only a member of the Trump family but now finds herself to be the co chair of the RNC. She was here with us yesterday on balance of power. Here's a little taste of our conversation.
There is such support for this man out there, and we are so blessed obviously to have these great supporters, but we're bringing in new supporters, and I think that is what ultimately matters, and so we're going to continue on that trajectory. We're going to continue fundraising, and we're going to put all that money to good use of Election season is right around the corner. I think we're sixty some days away from early voting starting.
Well, so as we consider the use of the money, Knowing you were just talking about all these people who are using their dollars to express their support for Donald Trump for president, there's only so much he can do as president without the buy in of Congress. So the composition of the House and Senate is also going to matter for actually getting his agenda across. To what extent do you plan to allocate those resources into some of those more difficult to either flip the Senate or retain the House.
Well, it's huge, it's everything, you know. It's obviously we want to win the White House. But to your point, you can't do that much other than executive order if you don't have a House and a Senate. And we certainly want to expand the lead in the House and take back the Senate. And obviously we have our partners at the NRCC and the NRSC who are primarily responsible.
For those races.
But look anywhere we as the rn C think we can be a value at and give a boost that is needed, we certainly will turn our attention. You look at a lot of very important congressional races in states like New York and California.
We have some.
You know, Montana is a big state as well, and so wherever we see that we are needed, we will be there.
As the RNC.
Our conversation with Laura Trump aspocat the Republican National Convention last night. As we turn now to the Congressman from Arkansas, Republican French Hill is with us in Milwaukee. It's a who's who here in Wisconsin, and now the convention is real for us, sir, It's great to see you. We have spent river. I'm talking in Washington about policy frequently financial regulations, crypto. But I think of you first and foremost as an establishment Republican, an old line GOP guy, and we're hearing a lot of different ideas at this convention that might reevaluate what that actually means to be a Republican. When we're talking about tariffs in the case of JD Vance, a higher minimum wage. Is this still the Republican Party that you recognize?
Sure?
I think the Republican Party has always been a big tent party, and since the Reagan administration forty years ago, we've made an effort how do we get working Americans back engage with the Republican Party. And one of those things is to be talking about jobs, opportunity, workforce, bringing jobs home from overseas locations. Many many rural communities were devastated in the nineties when so many companies took their manufacturing offshore. And President Trump in his first term used his leadership to redo the North American Free Trade Agreement of the USMCA. He brought jobs and investment back to the US with that has made us the preeminent place to come do manufacturing. And of course he got some trade concessions from China and Japan during his term. So my view about Donald Trump and tariffs is that is the ultimate stick to bring people to the table. And over my career in economic policy, I've seen a lot of presidents use that. President Reagan himself voluntary auto restraints VREs against Japan limiting semiconductor in imports back in the eighties. So this is not an unfamiliar territory for Republicans.
But when we think about what, for example, increased tariffs on China will actually mean economically, not just for China but here at home. I've asked this questions to a lot of your colleagues, and I'm not sure I'm really getting a straight answer. Because economists and you sit on the Financial Services Committe. You are hoping to be its next chairman, so I know you know how this works. Higher tariffs raise the cost of goods. This is going to be an inflationary policy, is it not.
We have two trends, major macro trends that are both inflationary aside from the overspending in Washington and lacks monetary policy, and that is tariffs and reshoring. Both are going from low cost supply single sources in a far away land to trying to benir shoring or friend of friend shoring if you've heard that term. Those things also raise prices in the short run. They may be better in the long run for redundancy and resiliency in supply and fair pricing. And also across the board of tariffs can be very inflationary. That's why I say if you use it as a cudgel, it's a good economic tool. If you use it across the board period of full stop and just say we're going to penalize one country in all product categories, you're going to create in those product categories high prices for American consumers. So I think it's about that constructive tension. My days in public policy, we use it as a cudgel to open up markets for American export, American intellectual property to be treated fairly, and I know that's where the President wants to achieve with China, for example.
Yeah, with China and mine.
We're looking at the Nasdaq tumble here today, it's done about three percent at the moment ASML have you seen this, Kaylee down one hundred and twenty six dollars a share?
Twelve percent in video is lower.
This Bloomberg story that's driving a lot of this that Joe Biden is going to make even more strict the restrictions on high tech chips from China, think AI.
Of course, when.
We see a move like this, knowing that Joe Biden is down in the polls, you're looking forward to another Trump term. Do you think that the Wall Street reaction is appropriate? Would Trump do the same thing?
Well, I believe that the President's executive order about limiting outbound investment in critical technologies like AI or chips is too broad, and I prefer a green light rid light approach where we name a particular technology, particular intellectual property concern, or even an exact company and say this company is off limits for American investment. I think that's the better way to go. When you say, well, we're going to limit technological innovation and AI, what.
Does that mean?
Every company, every entity is thinking about AI, and I think that does not give clear market signals about what US policy is for national security purposes. We all want to limit China's access to our dual use intellectual property that they're now turning and using against us in an international warfare sets.
So that's true, you like this policy. I don't just want a more direct approach.
I think I think the kind of approach that President Trump used, where we had lists of at the Commerce Department, commerce list, at the O fact list, at the Treasury, a DoD strategic company list, that's a better way to go because it's a green light rid light situation and.
Not a broad ban on global.
Investing by US investors in a I think it's too vague. I think we need to keep working on this.
I like to talk about another form of technology, crypto technology, which of course you are passionate about. You share the Digital Asset Subcommittee in the House. Both Donald Trump and JD. Vance are pretty crypto positive, it seems Donald Trump increasingly so. But we both know there's only so much power The president has to assist with regulation. Congress has to write a lot of those rules. What could Trump and Vance do on their own if they don't have both chambers of Congress. Knowing how difficult it has been to get legislation through the House. It has happened obviously during this Congress, but the Senate is a whole other ballgame.
Well, I think being pro innovation for digital assets is a good position for President Trump. He's been very outspoken on it. He's against a central bank digital currency where the FED at retail offers a digital currency. That's a bad idea, But being ro innovation is good. So how could he do that? Well, he can appoint people at the CFTC and the SEC that are actually for economic growth and for limited regulation and for focusing how to build a digital future instead of relying on old laws. We wrote the FIT twenty one Act, which specifically does that we give authorities direct authority to the SEC and the CFTC to regulate digital assets. Some of that could have been done by exemptive relief or by regulatory proposal by the SEC, and Chairman Genzler chose not to do it. So we're giving him the direction that he needs to do a good job. And I would hope President Trump if we don't get that bill passed in this Congress, I would hope be the first bill that we could get on his desk from the House Financial Services Committee in twenty twenty five.
To Kaylee's point, Donald Trump says he wants to be the first crypto president, but then you read this.
Book, it does have an NFT.
Well, that's true. No, he's making money on crypto. Bitcoin went nuts at the beginning of this week, and of course around the whole conversation of Joe Biden's acuity, it's been crypto positive for prices. He also set in an interview with Bloomberg BusinessWeek that he'd keep j. Powell on to serve out the rest of his term. Is that surprising to you? And do you agree with it?
Well, I think Chairman Powell. I don't agree with every decision that Chairman pal has made as FED chairman, particularly by letting inflation run transits, which he did in twenty twenty and with his policy change and then saying it was going to be transitory, when many of us on Capitol absolutely were on the record saying it absolutely is not. And Larry Summers, Democrat, agreed with that point of view.
But J.
Powell is a capable leader at the FED, and I think it makes complete sense in a presidential transition to let that FED chairman serve out his term and then make a determination. Then the president can appoint, reappoint mister Powell or pick someone out.
Should the FED chair and the rest of the FMC, for that matter, feel comfortable cutting rates before the election if the data warrants it, I.
Think only if the data warrants it. I've been very as you know on this show.
I've been.
Not seeing that data warranting a cut here in the their term, but we're looking at it every month, and they need they need to have the independence to do the job they think's appropriate in the FED. I value FED independence. We've had it both ways in the American history, and I prefer an independent FED.
We heard in J.
Powell's hearings on Capitol Hill last week a few Democrats suggest that a cut or even a hike in September will be billed as political because if its proximity to the election, well go buy into that.
Look. I think, I think everyone on the Open Market Committee knows that any thing they say or move they make one way or the other between now and the first Tuesday November is going to be deemed political by one side.
Or the other.
Should that keep them from doing No.
I think they've got to stick to their knitting. But this is why I prefer rules like the tailor rule. I prefer an analytic approach instead of a Kentucky Win Diedge approach, or is my friend Jim rent says, a PhD standard for setting rates as opposed to the goal standard or a mathematical approach.
But look, they're going.
To be under criticism regardless, and I think they need to do what's right because inflation is costing our families thousands of dollars more. And it's a key reason why I suspect that President Trump will be re elected because of Joe Biden's mishandling of the economy at a key moment, which is how it calls for households and property and casual insurance and rent and gas and groceries, all the things you cover every day.
All right, well, Congressman, we always appreciate you here at Blueberg.
Great to be with you.
Congressman Frenshill of Arkansas, course of the Financial Services Committee and hoping to be its next chairman.
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