Trump Moves Inauguration Indoors

Published Jan 17, 2025, 8:48 PM

Watch Joe and Kailey LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

Bloomberg Washington Correspondents Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz deliver insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. On this edition, Joe and Kailey speak with:

  • Former RNC Communications Director Lisa Camooso Miller as Donald Trump announces the presidential inauguration will be moved indoors due to extreme cold in DC.
  • Bloomberg Intelligence Media and Telecom Litigation and Policy Analyst Matt Schettenhelm as the Supreme Court upholds the TikTok divest or ban law.
  • Bloomberg Intelligence Senior US Policy Analyst Nathan Dean about Trump's policy initiatives in his first 100 days.
  • Bloomberg Politics Contributors Rick Davis and Jeanne Sheehan Zaino previewing Inauguration Day.
  • Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall as President-Elect Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping hold a phone call Friday morning.
  • Atlantic Council Senior Fellow for Middle East Programs and the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative Carmiel Arbit about the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Grab a shovel and welcome to the Friday edition of Balance of Power. You made it to the threshold of the weekend here on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite, and on YouTube too. You can find us on YouTube anyday search Bloomberg Business News Live. We keep the stream running all day from DC and New York, and you're always welcome in our studios. As we get ready to shiver this weekend here in Washington, Welcome to Fortress, DC. I don't even know how to get to work anymore, with so many streets closed, thirty miles of security fencing. We're told hundreds of thousands on the way into town. There is not a hotel room to be had. I know this firsthand after looking at the forecast. We have a major update on the plan from Monday. The headline on the Washington Post, home of the Capitol Weather Gang accumulating snow could fall Sunday before brutal cold on Inauguration Day. And yeah, boy, that's gonna be it nine degrees, says the Google. The nine degree low high of twenty four. And when you're on the west front of the Capitol at that time of day, this time of year, you're in shadow for the whole time. And so Donald Trump now has a new reason to compare himself to Ronald Reagan. The headline screaming inauguration moves indoors for the first time in forty years, making us all feel a little bit older. Yeah that was nineteen eighty five. Remember Ronald Reagan, it was seven degrees outside. It's gonna be nine on Monday, Barack Obama. Remember two thousand and eight, it was ten balmy. So Donald Trump takes to truth. Social January twentieth cannot come fast enough, he says. Everybody, even those that initially opposed a victory, he says, by Donald Trump, just want it to happen. Out of his obligation to protect the people of our country, He says, we have to think of the inauguration itself, pointing to the forecast the windchill factor, which would be sub zero doesn't want to see people hurt or injured in any way, and so yes, he says, I have ordered the inauguration address, in addition to prayers and other speeches, to be delivered in the United States Capital Rotunda, as was used by Ronald Reagan in nineteen eighty five, also because of very cold weather. So not only is every field producer at every television network in Washington freaking out right now because it's going to be a whole different show, so too are those in the Capitol think of the logistics that are going to have to be changed. Lisa Camuso Miller joins us now, of course, a veteran of the Republican Ledhouse of Representatives, a veteran of the Speaker's office, former RNC communications director. It's great to see you, Lisa. Are you cold already? And can you believe this is moving inside? What does this mean for the plan?

Well?

I mean, you know, look, these are these are the kinds of contingencies that Secret Service and law enforcement and the Capital consider every single time we inaugurate a president. So the fact that they've advised this, that they think that this is the right council is good. I mean, it makes it different, and I can feel the scramble sort of amongst all of the TV and the media folks, for sure. But all of these contingencies are always built in regardless of what the weather's going to be, Joe. I was there in two thousand and one, my gosh, twenty four years ago now, and it was pretty cold then when George W. Bush was inaugurated, and it was raining, and it was really there are so many people out on the lawn. I actually saw a report, Joe that perhaps they're going to open Capital one Arena, and I'm not so sure about what those details are, but there's there's a lot.

I got news on that. As a matter of fact, now that you're brough, I hate to interrupt you, Lisa, but I left that part out. Donald Trump writes, we will open Capital one Arena on Monday for live viewing of this historic event and to host the presidential parade. There's more. I will join the crowd at Capital One after my swearing in, So the night earlier, he's got the big night before pep Rally or whatever we're calling it. In that same space, Lisa, how in the world are all these people going to fit in there, complete with Secret Service level security for a newly sworn in president of the United States. I'm guessing you don't want to go anywhere near it.

Well, I mean, just like any other big event. I mean, it certainly will be one to get into. And you know, as they allow for these tickets, each one of these tickets have tiers, right, so every one of them, people get chances to sit up close, people get so there'll be lots of opportunity. But you know, as much as this feels like a major shift, it's also one of those things that when you're moving the president of the United States, there are contingencies for everything. And when you watch these things unfold, they have already considered all of these options. So for those of us who are watching at home, luckily we get to stay warm. I could not imagine sitting on the West Front and watching that happen in nine degree weather with snow Perhapsah.

So you make a great point, a boy, I was there too in two thousand and one. I remember my poor mother shivering outside and what was freezing rain right there was mud on the ground, freezing rain falling. George W. Bush and Bill Clinton are up there in this miserable weather up on the platform, and you know, they talked about moving it inside potentially that year too, which did not end up happening. So this is like a combination of George W. Bush's swearing in with the get snow and freezing rain and then the temperatures that Ronald Reagan experience. That's a pretty nasty combination. Does Donald Trump actually this idea because he doesn't have to prove crowd size if they move it inside.

I don't know.

I mean, maybe you know. But the other thing too is that I think that more than anything else in these circumstances, Joe more than any other.

I think.

The one thing that I saw that the President elect has noted is that law enforcement and those people that are out all day long. It's less about those of us who are sitting in the audience, and even less about those who get brought in right before the event starts. It's those who are really on the front lines who are there making sure. I meant you mentioned those thousands of they're everywhere you go in the city is closed off because of security, and so there is a huge amount of impact beyond just sort of the pomp and circumstance of the day that really affects just about everybody.

So this really is.

A very probably a very good call for a very cold day, and one that I think those who are around the Capital region are probably somewhat relieved, although they will still definitely be in their posts and working those checkpoints all right.

So Lisa Cabusa Miller has her endorsement here on moving this inside. By the way, if you want a little color from the ground here in the Capital City, Lisa, we got to work. Just in the last twenty four hours overnight these Jersey barriers showed up. They must have been dropping them all night. They must have had the trucks out all night. So on each corner of each intersection there's a pile of these concrete barriers. Presumably they will all be put in place along the side of the road at some point over the weekend here, but we're in shutdown mode quite like we've never seen. Donald Trump goes on to write in this very long truth post, wish I could read the whole thing to you here. It's just such classic Trump. It's not just the people, Lisa, the law enforcement, the first responders, he says, it's the police canines and even the horses. The horses would be too cold, Lisa, if you were worried about.

Them, Well, those guys will still be out. I'm sure they'll still be out out and about because they have a job to do.

What happens to all the people on the mall, I mean they're going to have to put on the jumbo tron right now. Everyone's going to fit in the Capitol One Arena or want to go in there.

For sure, And it makes you wonder how many people will come out because it will be cold, but and it's going to be regardless. I think that the crowd sizes, as we joke about the crowd sizes here, they'll be interesting to see because with the cold and with the indoor programming, perhaps that means that people stay home. But also too, as you said, Joe, it's nearly impossible to get around the city right now because of all of the safety per questions that have been put in place, not only because of a variety of different reasons, but also because the city itself still has to function. It is also MLK Day on Monday, so it is a federal holiday, so at least the workforce will not be trying to get into the city. But this is still a functioning city, one that happens and moves regardless of whatever you know, pomp and circum stances happening throughout the day. So it'll be interesting to see how it comes together.

I think I'm going to swim across the Potomac. I've decided that will be my way to get into the district. On apologies if you're not in the Washington area, this is no. I haven't actually managed to do that yet. I thought maybe I borrow yours. I don't mean to get too local for people who aren't in DC, but this is what's happening right now in our remaining minute, And now this is I'm setting you up. Tell me what you expect from the speech on Monday, whether it's indoors or out. Do we get American carnage as we did in his original swearing in ors? There's something more optimistic.

It feels like the tone and the tenor to me, just based on sort of some of the messaging that I'm seeing is going to be one about offering hope, offering those those that that big red swath across the country that voted in favor of change and voting voted in change, excuse me, in favor of the Trump administration. I think we're going to hear about things that are going to happen right away, those kinds of movements, those kinds of executive orders, those kinds of legislative actions that this Congress and this administration are working already to make sure that they put in place and have happened.

And so I would expect that.

It would be a lighter tone and ten or more with optimism and hope and hope for change, because I think that that's the legacy he's hoping to leave behind as we get into this next administration.

Well, I'm happy to tell you you'll be able to listen to it right here, watch it right here Bloomberg Radio, YouTube, Bloomberg TV as well. Kayley and I will start at eleven am Eastern Time with special coverage. Great to see you, Lisa. As always, I thought that would be just right for today. Lisa Camuso Miller, the former RNC Communications director, host of the Friday Reporter podcast, who knows a thing or two about what happens on Capitol Hill. We've got a lot more to talk about next as Scotus ruling on TikTok. It's straight ahead right here on Balance of Power. This is Bloomberg.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Appa Talk Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

The inauguration moves indoors. It's quite a forecast. We're gonna get snow and rain, I guess on Sunday night when they're doing the big victory rally at the Capitol One Arena. The interesting part of this not only are they gonna do the swearing in, they're gonna go inside the rotunda, do the whole bit. Can you imagine the seating arrangement, what they're dealing with just on egos alone. As this moves inside, you know who's gonna be on that platform. It's every major CEO from high tech, including TikTok, which we're gonna talk about in just a second. But then he goes back to the arena on Monday, because you know, if he's not going to stand in front of a million people on the mall. He's gonna what's to get in front of a crowd Capital One Arena Monday, he says, a live viewing of this historic event. Then I will join the crowd after my swearing in. This is going to have to be a kid rock thing there. So the big news before this happened was TikTok. With ten o'clock in the morning, we saw it coming Scotus with a ruling. They upheld the law. They upheld the ban or dive vest dive vest or ban law that no one seems to like. Anymore interesting development over the hours of last evening that you might have heard about here before the SCOTUS ruled in, Joe Biden says he's not going to enforce the ban that was supposed to take effect this weekend, right the nineteenth, So he's basically leaving this to Donald Trump and Donald Trump. It's kind of all about TikTok now. Matt Shettenholm's been knee deep in this for months and months and months analyzing and reporting for Bloomberg Intelligence, and I'm glad to say he's at the table with us right now. Matt, thank you for coming in. So you know, you just read the headline, you think, wow, TikTok's going down this weekend. But these two presidents outgoing and incoming, seem to have different ideas. Law Makers who want to sympathize with Donald Trump suddenly loved TikTok even though it was a danger to America five minutes ago. What's going to happen this weekend? Does it go dark or is there an interruption?

Well, TikTok told the Supreme Court last Friday that if the Supreme Court rules this way, it will go dark on Sunday. So it's a it's a really interesting question. And the key thing here is it's not necessarily up to the president's. Congress passed this law and it makes any company that makes TikTok available on Sunday or after that date liable for five thousand dollars per user. TikTok has one hundred and seventy million users. You do that math, you get to eight over eight hundred billion dollars in liability. So if you're a company that makes TikTok available, are you going to take the president's word on that? Or do you say, look, if you want us to keep making TikTok available, change the law, go back to Congress.

So let's delineate though. Are we talking about it being available in the app stores or are we talking about what's actually on our phones? Because we were told, well, if they do ban it, it'll basimply kind of fade out. You won't be able to upgrade it at some point or update the app. But it's not like it's going to disappear from your phone. So what would happen to them?

Exactly right, So the app won't disappear from your phone. But what the law says is that any company that one carries it in an app store and continues to make that available, but also any internet hosting service. So these companies that make TikTok work on the back end. So TikTok likely works with Oracle, It might work with other cloud computing companies to make all these videos load for you It companies can't operate within the United States to make the app keep updating within with the you know, for American users, unless they're willing to believe this promise that hey, we we won't enforce it. If President Trump comes out and says something like that and to me, that's a huge risk to take. If I'm a company, I'm not sure I would take it.

Is there an expectation? And of course, again we've already referenced the CEO of TikTok's at a p at the inauguration, which you might have a take on. It's a remarkable bit of optics we're going to have. I guess I wonder will he be seated in the rotunda now that this is shrinking. That could be the first or one of the first eos from Donald Trump right to turn this around. Or would it have to be Congressional action to undo the law? I think we may see both.

But the point though, is that an executive order from President Trump can't change the law. You know, he can say, look, I'm not going to enforce this law, but he can't go and change the fact that these companies face all this liability. So the logical path to change the law is to go back to Congress. I did think that Byte Dance and TikTok had some good news yesterday when Chuck Schumer came out and said.

Look, wasn't that something.

Yeah, we need to sell this app, we need to force a sale. But maybe we need to give him more time.

Referring to the thousands or millions of influencers who make a living, they wouldn't be making money this weekend under that scenario. That's right.

I think it could go dark temporarily, and then there's a question of can Congress fix it and maybe push it out another two hundred and seventy days to force that sale.

Is somebody really buying this thing, Xelon buying it? What's happening with that, you know?

Is the biggest question in my view is will byte Dance sell it? So even before you talk about who's going to go buy it, will Bite Dance sell it, Will China allow us sale? And any sale, is it going to involve the algorithm? And what good is getting TikTok if you don't get the algorithm? So to me, like that's the hang up on the sale. We need byte Dance to be willing to sell first.

I told you he's been living this stuff. The perfect person to talk to you right now, Matt, Thank you so much. Matt Shettenhelm at the Great Bloomberg Intelligence, the home of Nathan Dean. He's going to come and talk to us next. We'll let you know what happens to TikTok over the weekend, or you can just look at your phone. It's a big political situation here in Washington. Obviously, this coming a day after Scott Bessen testified on Capitol Hill, and we're hearing he could be at least close to a day one confirmation our next Treasury secretary, who had a lot to say about tariffs and yes, taxes, specific the twenty seventeen Trump tax cuts.

Let's listen, this is the single most important economic issue of the day.

This is past fail that if we do not.

They fix these tax cuts, if we do not renew and extend, then we will be facing an economic calamity, and as always with financial instability that falls on the middle and working class people.

We get into it now with Bloomberg Intelligence's senior US policy analyst, is pol Swene going to be upset with me for doing all this bi they're the best in the business. Nathan's Phone's been ringing. We talk about it every week here. Good to see Nathan Dean about confirmations now or is it just foregone that Trump's getting his team?

Well, I think that he's going to get most of his team and then look from the GOP perspective, you can only reject a couple of those. And I think, based off of the Democratic questions we saw this week, a lot of that is being saved for Tulca Gabbert and you know Patel over at the FBI, So I think a lot of the questions. Look, Senator Marco Rubio, he's gonna have the easiest path to confirmation, Scott besstt. He's getting a lot of Democratic votes. Even the Pete Hegseth hearing with Secretary of Defense. You know, the Democrats were sort of curtailed in their criticism of him, which.

Makes me think that a lot of these nominees are going to get through. So how do you do yesterday in making the argument that what you think about tariffs might not be true, that we have our own approach, that the composite of all of our policies will in fact spur growth, not inflation or balloon deficits. Is the market buying this because you look at the bond market and I'm wondering, So.

You know, I don't think the market. So let's just back up the market. I think views Scott Bessont as the moderated voice when it comes to these tariff arguments, especially when you compare him to Howard Lucknick, the Commerce Secretary nomine and so forth like that. You know, however, Scott Besson has said and in those in that confirmation hearing, he said, these tariffs are coming. It's just a matter of how hard and how high and how quickly or is it going to be a way to conduct negotiations. And I think that's the Wall Street view here. The Wall Street view is is that come Monday, when these executive orders are signed, there's still going to be wiggle room. Now he may be in the minority here, but I would also argue that, you know, when it comes to tariffs, there are a lot of other groups involved, Commerce, USTR and so forth like that. And I think Scott Besson's message, why you know, he answered a lot about the tariffs. Initially, he focused a lot more on the hearing on tax reform because I think that for him, the tax extensions of twenty seventeen are the most important thing for him in twenty twenty five.

Well, and he's framing it is, we don't do this, as we just heard the biggest tax cut on a tax hike, rather on the middle class. But when you start talking about phasing in tariffs so some of the other ideas that have come about, it's creating a new level of uncertainty. Would Wall Street rather know what's going to happen and if it's across the board ten percent tariffs versus being uncertain about potentially lower tariffs, that would be friendlier to an investor.

So obviously, when you get certainty, you at least get the ability to do which you know you can react to it. So, but there are a couple ways that President Trump will put these tariffs into place, and most of them involve ordering the Department of Commerce to conduct the study and then come back in two to three months and those negotiations take place. I think Wall Street would actually prefer that route. However, President Trump does have the ability to declare an economic disaster and these tariffs, I mean, we looked into it. All you have to do is go over to customs and change a number.

And hit enter. How about that and these.

Numbers go up and these tariffs take place. That would be much more of a shock, and I think Wall Street really wouldn't want that. However, you know, he did this back in twenty nineteen as well with Mexico. Representatives of Mexico City came to Washington, there was a negotiation, and those tariff's threats never actually came into fruition. So we continue to believe that, yes, we are going to see an executive order on Monday about tariffs. But we continue to believe that this executive order maybe put out a small tariff, but will lead to further negotiations before the high tariff takes into place.

Do we get crypto eos on Monday? And where are we on this national reserve? I still don't understand how it works. Maybe you can tell me if this is going to happen.

Yeah, So I think we are going to get to a cryptocurrency executive order. It will be one of those more symbolic ones saying this is the cryptocurrency is going to be like a national priority or something like that.

Guy.

But what you're talking about is this idea of a cryptocurrency, you know, sovereign wealth fund.

If you Fort Knox of bitcoin exactly, how do you do that?

You know?

Senator Lummis from Wyoming is heavily involved. The idea here is that you would potentially buy five percent of the world's bitcoin. Now, I think what will happen is the United States has approximately around two hundred and twelve thousand bitcoin through enforcement actions, right some of its sprinkled over a commerce some of it are treasury and President Trump could put an executive order out saying, look, let's put that together and call that the Sovereign Wealth Fund. But President Trump is also in create our voice support for US based cryptocurrencies, which is not bitcoin.

So if I'm a holder of bitcoin.

And I want this to go up to one hundred and seventy five thousand dollars, and President Trump is looking at US based cryptocurrencies, you know.

There's a conversation. We're totally out of time. There's a conversation in the maga social media world that believes the government will sell all of that seized crypto just to drive the price down and embarrassed Donald Trump. Could that happen?

Well, Senator Alumnus actually spoke against some of the selling that occurred yesterday, So.

Yeah, we'll see what happened yesterday, is that what they're doing.

Some of the USh marshalls sold a little bit of bitcoins, so.

It's happening a little bit a little bit. We have to talk more about that. Check the price of bitcoin while we're at it, because this is Bloomberg. It's looking pretty good back above one hundred and four thousand dollars, up five percent. That's Nathan Dean at Bloomberg Intelligence Our Panels next on Bloomberg.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five Peter on almal Cockley and Android Otto with the Blue Birk Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

It's the fastest show in politics with a lot to cover today. Things have been moving pretty fast to day the friday before Donald Trumps swearing in the final friday of Joe Biden's administration and Kaylee, Boy, We've got a lot happen in this weekend. The city is just in lockdown. It's Fortress Washington. You kind of can't even drive into town now as it is, and it's going to keep increasing with the security, the Jersey barriers, the fencing and the whole bit. Over the weekend. Donald Trump's going to have a victory rally Sunday night at Capital One Arena, The interesting thing is he's going back the next day.

Yeah, at least according to his post on true Social people who would have been on the National Mall, I guess to attend the inauguration in person, or at least view it from the mall can now view it inside the Capitol One arena. And then Donald Trump, after he's sworn in, intends to parade to Capital One and join supporters there for I guess what will be a two nights.

That's right, exactly. This is our way of telling you. The inauguration has been moved indoors. It's going to be nine degrees in town on Monday. And just like we saw Ronald Reagan do well a little bit differently because they went to the White House for that, they're going to move the ceremony into the Capital Rotunda. Yep, and good luck getting a seat. How do they fit that many egos in one room?

Well, that's an excellent question. We have a lot of questions actually about how logistically this is going to work. But this would be only the third time in history the inauguration doesn't happen outdoors. So on that note, let's assemble our political panel with their vast knowledge of American Political History Genie Shanzay, And that was with US Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congress, alongside Rick Davis stone Court Capital partner, both of them Bloomberg Politics contributors. So Rick, it was raised and by some reporters over at Politico, this notion that this is Donald Trump's second inauguration and whether or not this would actually be moved indoors if it was his first, because you miss out on a lot of the pomp and circumstance.

Yeah, I don't know.

I mean I think it's a lot of second guessing. They'll be pomp and circumstance. I mean, they'll be a nice ceremony that'll get broadcasts live on television and social media. Him surrounded by his you know, incoming cabinet and Congress. So there'll be a nice element of what we love about America, which is our institutions and our formalities of them. But this is really Donald Trump. I mean, you know, he's not the kind of guy who wants to, you know, sort of freeze as he's giving a speech which could last quite some time, right, I mean, it wouldn't be surprised that his inaugural address will go over an hour, and the replacement is classic Donald Trump. One more big rally, right back to back with another one the day before. And I wouldn't be surprised by the way that this isn't a trend in his present see where you know, once a month, once a quarter, there's a big rally somewhere. He's not running for anything, but he loves his rallies.

We should let everyone know that Rick Davis was on Ronald Reagan's inaugural committee the last time this had to happen, so Rick knows what he's talking about. Genie was ten degrees when Barack Obama was sworn into office and I was out there shivering in the shade with a lot of people underneath the dome. It was many hours of freezing. George W. Bush had freezing rain at his first inauguration. What do you make of this call?

Well, I think it shows that Republicans don't like to be cold, and Democrats, tough as we are, we're willing to.

Do it, be out there and cold.

You know, But can I just say.

No, I don't. Don't you guys think it's sort of fitting. We all of us started out this election cycle in Iowa and it was like pretty good, yes or something, and now coming to a painful end on Monday nine degrees. So in some ways it's sort of the encapsulation of what this entire election season has been like.

Old at least in Iowa. We all got to be inside the studio, sure really going outside that which was also really which was freezing. Yeah, it was all relative, absolutely different. Then I wasn't warm for like five days straight at any point. I don't think we just had a red line cross a red headline crossing the Bloomberg terminal. I do want to mention as we look ahead to the inauguration, knowing that it won't just be Donald Trump who is getting sworn in as president, but current Ohio Senator JD. Vance will be sworn in as vice president, leaving open a vacancy for a Senate seat in Ohio. And we just got news from Ohio's governor, Governor DeWine, announcing he will fill Vince's Ohio Senate seat with John Houstead, who is currently the Lieutenant governor of Ohio. So this is confirmation of that after their been some rumblings in recent days Joe about this seat potentially going to the Vake Rama Swamp.

Yeah, and that's something. There's also been talk of him wanting to run for governor.

The Washington Post is reporting maybe.

Something that he is really going to consider. This follows Ronda Santis's pick of Ashley Moody to fill Florida's VACANCYTS. We're getting a better sense of the makeup here.

Yeah, I guess the question is knowing these were going to be Republican seats, regardless how much the individuals selected really matter when they're heading into a Senate that has a fairly comfortable Republican majority.

Rick Davis, who spent enough time in the Senate to have a feeling on this, what do you make of these two decisions?

Yeah, these both really follow historical norms. It's not unusual for when you have a vacancy, especially in the Senate, for sort of the senior ranking party official who's replacing someone to be put into that seat, you know, whether it's an attorney general, lieutenant governor.

So that is actually the mainstream.

You know, we heard rumors that Laura Trump maybe become senator from Florida. That would have really broken the norms, and of course, uh, the Vake Ramaswami, who's never held public office, would be another great example of breaking.

That norm in Ohio.

So what we're really seeing at the start of the Trump administration is a lot of normal, which I don't think anybody would have actually been on.

Uh.

And so I do think that it's a it's an interesting indication of what's going on in really two key Republican states like Florida and Ohio, that it's sort of business as usual. And by the way, these two governors not big Trump supporters. Mike Dwaine not a Trump guy at all. The Santas ran against him. You know, they sort of they picked the people they thought would best represent the state in the United States Senate, in those in those each respective states.

Well, and I guess that person for governor to wine this time did not seem to be the Vake Ramaswami. But as I mentioned, Genie, the Washington Post is reporting that Ramaswami is gear up for a governor's bid in twenty twenty six. An Ohio operative they cite saying that Vig's base plan is the same to get accomplishments at DOGE. The Department of Governor efficiency he's co leading with Elon Musk and then announce a run for governor shortly. What do you make of that?

Yeah, you know, I did never thought that he would want to fill this seat at this time. You know, I think he wants to get his bona fides working, as you mentioned in Doge, and then make a run for the top seat in his home.

State or in his state.

So, you know, I think it's a plan that actually does make sense. Now, obviously a lot can happen in a short period of time, so certainly not a guaranteed thing, But I think he does have a viable path forward, and he certainly has the support and funding to get there if he really wants to. So I do think it's a plan that makes more sense than put sticking.

In in this.

We've got a breaking story on the terminal, Kiley, that we should mention because it of course plays into the transition that we're talking about here. The Federal Reserve announcing today is withdrawing from the network of central banks and supervisors for greening the financial system. This is a coalition of banks. This goes back to twenty seventeen in studying climate risk is the transition the transformation complete?

Rick, Yeah, we can see the anticipation of the Trump administration highly critical on the outside of Mission creep at the FED, especially as it relates.

To climate rules.

And I think this is just a declaration of the obvious to come right, and so rather than make it an issue for the Trump folks, you know, they're just sort of cleaning the deck for the new administration.

You know.

Look, the good news about Donald Trump is we've already seen one term of him and we've had him around for eight years pontificating on every issue that we could ever imagine, and so it's not a hard guess where he's going to wind up now. He's a flip flopper, loves to change his mind. TikTok's a good example. We're not sure where all that's going to come down. So it always adds an element of surprise. But we know what we're getting into, and so do these regulators, and it's not a surprise to me that they would immediately start to process a new approach.

Well, and it's not just the regulators. We should point out that the banks are pulling out of net zero alliances as well. The net zero Banking Alliance specifically, just within the last month, has lost Goldman, Sacks, Wells, Fargo City Group, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan Chase, basically all the big ones. Black Rock pulled out of an equivalent net zero asset Managers Alliance. This is I guess you could say Genie big business adjusting to the landscape under Donald Trump, and the same could be said for other companies as well. Look at what Meta is doing, changing personnel and pulling back on fact checking.

That's absolutely right.

I mean, you know, it doesn't take a lot to read the tea leaves of what happened in November. They see a total shift in Washington, d C. In terms of the power base. But they also, and I think importantly, also see a shift with the American public. And so we do see from as you mentioned, from tech to the financial circles and elsewhere, an adjustment to that. You know, it is particularly worth noting though, you know, these changes as it pertains to issues involving climate and green are happening at the same time that California is suffering.

From these tremendous wildfires.

So you know, climate change remains an existential crisis, and we do depend on our leadership to move us forward on that, and that is a concern to a lot of people.

Well, things are winding down. Here are a remaining moment, Rick Davis, Your thoughts on Joe Biden final words. He's going to be delivering his final speech, likely publicly at least of his presidency, a real formal speech here this hour. How will Americans remember him as we swear in Donald Trump on Monday. Yeah, Look, I think everybody's going to at least initially see Joe Biden in a prism of age. Right, he was the first real president to be forced out because of his age. And I must say, I mean he's turning it over to what will be the oldest person ever sworn in to the presidency in history.

And he beats Joe Biden by five months, Donald Trump. And so we are in an era where age has become a thing with elected officials, whether it's in the Senate, the House, or the presidency. And so I think that will still be an issue that he'll have to deal with.

They'll be back with us on the late edition of Balance of Power that's at five Washington time, Rick Davis, Genie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors stay with us. A lot more to follow here on Balance of Power. This is Bloomberg.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg. Eleven thirty.

Today's Supreme Court decision upholding the law that would see TikTok band if not divested by Sunday. And interestingly, come Monday, TikTok CEO show Chew. We'll be here in Washington. He's planning to attend Donald Trump's inauguration, which has raised some eyebrows. And you know what raised eyebrows as well, Joe, was the invitation Donald Trump extended to another Chinese individual, the Chinese president. In fact, Ji Jinping was invited to the inauguration that we learned today he is not coming. He is those said in his stead China's Vice President.

Han Jan optics are everything. He's still though, got on the horn with President she. You know, they were not waiting until the swearing in. Donald Trump's been in touch with any number of world leaders, some of whom have gone to mar A Lago. And as we hear now from Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall, the phone was ringing and the calls coming from Beijing. Tyler, what do we know?

Yeah, Joe So President elect Trump confirming this call in a post on truth Social saying that it was quote very good, but also saying that they spoke about a range of issues, including balancing trade Fetanahl, which we know was a campaign issue for him on the campaign trail, but also about TikTok. Now their call came before the Supreme Court brought down their decision today, but also on the heels of as Cane mentioned, just learning that the TikTok CEO show cho will be at the inauguration on Monday. And I was on Capitol Hill yesterday I had a chance to catch up with the Senator Mark Warner. He's a Democrat, of course, the ranking member on Senate Intel, but he was the chair of the committee when the TikTok bill originally passed, and of course has been on Balance of Power numerous times about that, and I asked him about the TikTok CEO coming to the inauguration, and he said that he was confused by this. I want you to take a lesson to what he told reporters here.

I don't get it. Eighty percent of the Congress Democrats Republicans agreed the TikTok is a huge national security concern. I can't think of a potentially more powerful propaganda's guru. And the irony in all of this was Donald Trump was the first guy to point out this problem of his administration had to convince me. They did a great job of convincing me and the overwhelming members of Congress.

He goes on to say that he would actually support delaying the band if that's what it would take to get a deal over the finish line, but he said that he doesn't understand how this squares with the incoming Trump administration's rhetoric when it comes to getting tough on China. Of course, Joe and Keiley. President elect Trump wanted to take that side of this. He's been saying all along that he is the only one that could potentially bring a negotiation to the table.

Well, but it's not only up to Donald Trump ultimately to make a deal happen, China is going to have to sign off on any divestment, giving the algorithm and play.

Here right, right, And that's also why it's so interesting to watch all of these influences and factors coming into inauguration day. Since we know that Elon Musk will be there at the inauguration Bloomberg News reporting that Chinese officials were looking at him as potentially being part of some sort of acquisition. But then I'm also watching these other big tech CEOs. Mark Zuckerberg's going to be there, and we've been talking all along about how a potential ban on TikTok right could impact Meta for instance, as creators and those seeking out content might look for other platforms if this band goes into effect.

All right, Bloomberg, Tyler Kensel, great reporting, Thank you so much, and Joe, and we consider this prospect of a deal happening if it's to be someone like Elon Musk who also owns X or another tech company. Just earlier this week, we had the outgoing chair of the FTC, Lina Khan, in studio here with us and asked her who realistically would be able to get around and trust concerns by absorbing an app or a platform with one hundred and seventy million users in the US without raising a flag. And while she kind of danced around that a little bit, she did say, you know, traditionally when you look at tech companies and like absorbing a company of that size, that it might draw some scrutiny.

I would think. Although we heard from Chuck Schumer on this, yeah, just yesterday, his statement appealing to the hundreds of thousands of influencers he actually mentioned on the floor who make a living here. Democrats have apparently come on over with maybe the exception of Senator Warre. Yeah.

It's interesting how the winds change the closer we get to Donald Trump's inauguration, knowing Donald Trump has different feelings about TikTok than he once did, and the winds have changed and lead up to the inauguration in other areas as well, knowing that Donald Trump issued threats, for example, if Israeli hostages weren't returned by Monday when he takes the oath of office, that there would be consequences and lo and behold, this week, we did, finally, after month effort, see a breakthrough on a ceasfire deal between Israel and Hamas. Today, after what had been a little bit of a hold up in the Israeli Kanesse, they have now actually voted to advance that deal and hostages could begin returning home on Sunday.

Yeah, this broke right on this program a couple of days ago, as soon as Joe Biden was in front of the podium talking about it, Benjaminettnye, who said they were still reviewing details. It sounded like maybe things were going to be slow walked, maybe even to coincide with the inaugural on Monday, as Kaylee mentioned, Donald Trump promising all hell to break loose in the Middle East if the hostages were not released, or at least a deal to have their release. But the Kanesse has signed off on this, Kayleie, and this is going to happen.

So we want to get more on the fact that this is happening, and turn now to one of our trusted voices here on Balance of Power. Carmeil Arbitt is back with us. She is Atlantic Council Senior Fellow for the Middle East Programs at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Carmeal I guess when we consider that the timing here, the slight delay on the behalf of the Israeli government, was that mostly just because of domestic political pressure. Was there really a chance this wasn't actually going to be agreed to?

Yeah.

I think it's important to remember as these agreements are unfolding, and of course we've been watching for fifteen months as.

We've approached ceasefire agreements.

You know, one went into play, others have fallen apart, just how fragile these deals are, but very much is rarely politics came into play as Natagna, who was looking at what he would have to do to hold his coalition together if he did move forward with the ceasefire agreement, and he ultimately made a decision that if he had to choose between pressure from incoming President Donald Trump or pressure from his far right flank, he was going to yield to that pressure from President Trump and really set a tone for what their relationship is going to look like once Trump returns to office.

When we consider phase one here Carmeil and this six week period of time, the six week truce, the deal calls for extension essentially of the temporary cease fire if a full and permanent truce is not agreed on at that point. How long could that keep rolling? Do you suspect this will be figured out in that six week time to have a permanent solution.

Yeah, for the US right now was very committed to bringing an end to this conflict, for this ceasefire to be exactly as you say, permanent.

So of course it's being structured in three phases.

Each phase will whether or not the ceasefire is able to be made permanent will depend on both Hamas and Israel meeting their obligations under each phase. In Israel and frankly also for Hamas, the politics of this.

Are very difficult.

Part of the reason it was so difficult for Natyahu to say yes is that, of course he had promised to completely eliminate Hamas, not just eliminate Hamas from power, not just deplete Hamas's military, but eliminate them altogether. In that hasn't happened, and so one of the key concerns for Israeli is especially on the right, is that Hamas could return to power, and for others it's this concern that there is no clear path forward for governance in the Gaza Strip and so it's very hard to see how this becomes permanent.

Or when it does, what that actually looks like.

Well, and Carmil, I'm glad you raised this notion that Israel had said from the get go its objective here was the elimination of Hamas, because just earlier this week, when he was speaking at the Atlantic Council, a Secretary of State, outgoing Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln had this to say about what he described as potentially perpetual war.

Let's listen, each time Israel completes its military operations and pulls back Hamas, militants regroup and re emerge because there's nothing else to fill the void.

Indeed, we assess.

That Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it is lost. That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war.

So, Carmil, what realists could fill the void to prevent an enduring insurgency?

Yeah, this is really the question of the hour.

As we move into again, as we said, a ceasefire and then what will hopefully be an end to this conflict. The Palestinian authority continues to reassert that it is ready able and willing to take this on. The Israeli government is opposed to that, but hasn't put forward an alternative. The far right in Israel would like to see Israel maintain a presence in the Gaza Strip, both militarily and through settlements, but Natagnell, who has also said that he's not willing to do that. And so what you have is the potential for power vacuum that could lead to chaos and again the reemergence of Hamas or frankly other more extremist groups within the Gaza Strip.

There's been a lot of comparisons Torontald Reagan and the release of the Iranian hostages coinciding with the inaugural What are these optics going to look like when the first hostages are released or so, I.

Think it's important to just know the high usage agreement that was reached, as Biden has said repeatedly, was the agreement that the Biden administration put forward in May.

What has changed is, of course, the politics.

The dynamics on the ground, Israel's feeling that it has at least cleared out or retained some control over land that it can kind of address some of these issues.

So you know, This has really been a triumph I would say of bipartisanship.

We saw the Biden administration lay the groundwork, do the work that was necessary to make this possible, and then work in close partnership with the Trump administration to bring it over the edge. So I think that the Trump administration, of course is going to be declaring victory.

This is a great note for them to be.

Coming into Washington this coming weekend, but at the same time really shows what continuity and cooperation can yield well.

And when we consider the Trump administration and what they will now be dealing with in the Middle East as a result of this breakthrough and what caused the breakthrough, Carmeil, how much easier of a time potentially will they have navigating the relationship with Iran, which through its proxies, has been itself weakened.

Yeah, I mean that's certainly part of the conditions that have made this agreement possible in this moment is the weakening of both Iran and its proxies.

So the Trump administration will benefit from that.

Their ambitions, of course, are still set on a larger regional agreement that includes the Saudis, and they're going to work to pursue that and are well positioned to do so. I would note that doesn't mean this will not be without its challenges, of course. You know, as we talked about making sure that each stage is actually reached. There are Israel released today the first list of palest named prisoners that it's going to allow to be released as part of the exchange with hostages.

Whether or not Hamas actually produces all of.

The hostages, how many are alive, and so forth, the details here are going to still be tricky for this administration, and I would expect there will still be friction points between Trump and Natagne who and Trump in regional partners, so it will not be smooth sailing from here.

We actually have a sense that, more specifically Carimel, what this exchange is going to look like. Are we going to see a meeting at a crossing with Gaza? Are they going to be on an airport tarmac? How's this going to roll?

Yeah?

So Israel spent today setting up essentially centers in three different border points to receive the hostages. So I would expect optics very similar from the Israeli side of the ceasefire agreement that was first reached where you see, you know, kind of trucks going in picking up the hostages, reunions with families and so forth. In the past they haven't allowed the release of pals and and prisoners to be filmed, and they will of course be distributed to different places. Some will go back to Gaza, others to the West Bank, and then there is talk of those who may be deported. So I don't expect the TV optics to be quite as kind of.

Grand around that, but you will see receptions.

Back into communities, families being reunited on both sides.

I would expect it's going to be very.

Very emotional, really interesting. That's the real stuff from Carmel Arbit Carmel, thank you so much. As always, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow for Middle East Programs Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative. We always learned something when we talk to Carmel. We've got some big days coming up here in political history. It's not just the inaugural, it's the release of hostages overseas, yeah.

Which could happen just before the inaugural on Sunday. Sunday also being the TikTok deadline, which we've had development on today after the Supreme Court decision. It's a lot to cover here in Washington, and it's only just beginning as the new administration comes in, so we'll have to come back with more five.

I think we'll have a lot to talk about. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzana will be with us. I hope you will be too, five pm Eastern right here on Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.

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