Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay, and then Rouno with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay, and then Rouno with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

The political ramifications of the economic data here are huge. Just ask Kamala Harris if they think they can put a bow on this whole inflation story by the time we're walking into the election in November, in the wake of Labor Day, it would be a huge deal. Another huge deal for Kamala Harris. Today is the big endorsement we've all been waiting for. I guess the transformation is complete. As I said earlier, the Obamas, not surprisingly are on board. They rolled it out in a video and it's not a big, you know, movie trailer style thing, or even Barack Obama sitting there with Michelle Obama explaining the decision. It's a phone call. They got the cameras out to take the phone call from the Obamas. Here's what it looks like.

The political ramifications of the economic data here are huge. Just ask Kamala Harris if they think they can put a bow on this whole inflation story by the time we're walking into the election in November, in the wake of Labor Day, it would be a huge deal. Another huge deal for Kamala Harris. Today is the big endorsement we've all been waiting for. I guess the transformation is complete. As I said earlier, the Obamas, not surprisingly are on board. They rolled it out in a video and it's not a big, you know, movie trailer style thing, or even Barack Obama sitting there with Michelle Obama explaining the decision. It's a phone call. They got the cameras out to take the phone call from the Obamas. Here's what it looks like.

Kamalah, Hi, Hey there, Ah, you're both together.

Kamalah, Hi, Hey there, Ah, you're both together.

Oh, it's good to hear you both.

Oh, it's good to hear you both.

I can't have this phone call without saying to my girl, Kamala, I am proud of you.

I can't have this phone call without saying to my girl, Kamala, I am proud of you.

This is going to be historic.

This is going to be historic.

We call to say Michelle and I couldn't be prouder to endorse you and to do everything we can to get you through this election and into the oblo.

We call to say Michelle and I couldn't be prouder to endorse you and to do everything we can to get you through this election and into the oblo.

Oh my goodness, Michelle Brocktice means so much to.

Oh my goodness, Michelle Brocktice means so much to.

Meet Leo was watching reality TV? Is that how we roll out endorsements?

Meet Leo was watching reality TV? Is that how we roll out endorsements?

Now?

Now?

I guess it's creative. I'll ask some folks smarter than me over the course of the next two hours about this. But to get a sense of the landscape here and what this change in direction in the campaign means for not only the mushy middle as some call them, but the double haters who emerge in the most recent Siena College New York Times poll, as well as former Nikki Haley supporters, and a great opportunity to bring you a conversation from a unique perspective of Charlie Dent, the former Republican congressman from Pennsylvania's fifteenth district, wrote an op ed just after the debate calling on Joe Biden to drop out of this race. Congressman it's great to see you. Thanks for joining us at the table today. It's a compelling read, especially after the fact. Now when you go back and read the op ed that you wrote for MS first, you write, I feel dumber after watching and listening to that debate, and I think we all can agree with that and understand. Democrats, you wrote, this is the end of your column. Democrats will say it's too hard and too late to replace Biden. Nonsense, you said. The Democratic National Convention is in August. They can do it. But do they have the guts? So is the Democratic Party the party of guts?

I guess it's creative. I'll ask some folks smarter than me over the course of the next two hours about this. But to get a sense of the landscape here and what this change in direction in the campaign means for not only the mushy middle as some call them, but the double haters who emerge in the most recent Siena College New York Times poll, as well as former Nikki Haley supporters, and a great opportunity to bring you a conversation from a unique perspective of Charlie Dent, the former Republican congressman from Pennsylvania's fifteenth district, wrote an op ed just after the debate calling on Joe Biden to drop out of this race. Congressman it's great to see you. Thanks for joining us at the table today. It's a compelling read, especially after the fact. Now when you go back and read the op ed that you wrote for MS first, you write, I feel dumber after watching and listening to that debate, and I think we all can agree with that and understand. Democrats, you wrote, this is the end of your column. Democrats will say it's too hard and too late to replace Biden. Nonsense, you said. The Democratic National Convention is in August. They can do it. But do they have the guts? So is the Democratic Party the party of guts?

Now?

Now?

Well, I have to give them a lot of credit for doing what they needed to do.

Well, I have to give them a lot of credit for doing what they needed to do.

That took a lot of discipline, It did take guts, and I commend them. They had a real problem on their hands. Yeah, and they dealt with it. Now we could argue whether or not they should have had an open a more open process than they did, but they felt they didn't have the time. Next person up was Kamala Harris. They got her in. They've got everybody on board and game on. So I have to give them a lot of credit for doing that. I don't know the Republicans could have done that. You know, I think the Republicans be smart to replace their candidate too, give them unpopularity, But that's not going to happen.

That took a lot of discipline, It did take guts, and I commend them. They had a real problem on their hands. Yeah, and they dealt with it. Now we could argue whether or not they should have had an open a more open process than they did, but they felt they didn't have the time. Next person up was Kamala Harris. They got her in. They've got everybody on board and game on. So I have to give them a lot of credit for doing that. I don't know the Republicans could have done that. You know, I think the Republicans be smart to replace their candidate too, give them unpopularity, But that's not going to happen.

He and Joe Biden shared that unpopularity. So to one extent, is this an instant game changer?

He and Joe Biden shared that unpopularity. So to one extent, is this an instant game changer?

Well, it is a big game changer simply because of the fact that, well, the Republicans are effectively able to make the argument that Joe Biden was unfit for office, that he had diminished capacity, and that wasn't going to go away. Well, that issue is now off the table, and the Democrats will probably be able to flip the script and say, well, you know, the this question now is your guy given all the erratic and dangerous things that he has said, and oh, by the way, he's old too, So I think they're going to be able to effectively make that case. Of course, Republicans are going to counter that Kamala Harris is too liberal, far too progressive. Yes, and outside the mainstream, but it's a different The race has been reset and it's more of a binary choice now than it was prior to Biden's departure.

Well, it is a big game changer simply because of the fact that, well, the Republicans are effectively able to make the argument that Joe Biden was unfit for office, that he had diminished capacity, and that wasn't going to go away. Well, that issue is now off the table, and the Democrats will probably be able to flip the script and say, well, you know, the this question now is your guy given all the erratic and dangerous things that he has said, and oh, by the way, he's old too, So I think they're going to be able to effectively make that case. Of course, Republicans are going to counter that Kamala Harris is too liberal, far too progressive. Yes, and outside the mainstream, but it's a different The race has been reset and it's more of a binary choice now than it was prior to Biden's departure.

We were seeing in states like yours twenty plus percent protest vote for Donald Trump in the form of a Nicky Haley vote. Even though she had left the race, still a lot of these Nicky Haley style Republicans wondering what to do. And I'm not sure they saw the answer last Thursday night when Hulk Hogan was ripping his shirt off in Milwaukee, or when Donald Trump was setting the record for the all time stem winder convention speech. How does Kamala Harris reach them?

We were seeing in states like yours twenty plus percent protest vote for Donald Trump in the form of a Nicky Haley vote. Even though she had left the race, still a lot of these Nicky Haley style Republicans wondering what to do. And I'm not sure they saw the answer last Thursday night when Hulk Hogan was ripping his shirt off in Milwaukee, or when Donald Trump was setting the record for the all time stem winder convention speech. How does Kamala Harris reach them?

Well, she has an opportunity. These Hailey votvoters are still up for grabs. I know the Republicans thought that their convention really is a unifying event.

Well, she has an opportunity. These Hailey votvoters are still up for grabs. I know the Republicans thought that their convention really is a unifying event.

Well, they were.

Well, they were.

Unified inside the room. In the room, yes, but outside the room, you know that's what they meant. Yeah, these folks, there are still these I was one of those Nicky Haley voters in Pennsylvania at about twenty percent of Republicans voted for Nicki Haley in a closed primary state. And those voters are still up for grabs, you know.

Unified inside the room. In the room, yes, but outside the room, you know that's what they meant. Yeah, these folks, there are still these I was one of those Nicky Haley voters in Pennsylvania at about twenty percent of Republicans voted for Nicki Haley in a closed primary state. And those voters are still up for grabs, you know.

I think so.

I think so.

In many ways, I think Harris has an opportunity. If she can moderate on some positions, say like trade and tariffs, and maybe some other areas, she might have an opportunity to get those voters. But those folks are still up for grabs. Some of them are going to go which Trump. Haley has endorsed Trump. She wants to keep her options open for a future election, but that doesn't mean her voters are necessarily following her.

In many ways, I think Harris has an opportunity. If she can moderate on some positions, say like trade and tariffs, and maybe some other areas, she might have an opportunity to get those voters. But those folks are still up for grabs. Some of them are going to go which Trump. Haley has endorsed Trump. She wants to keep her options open for a future election, but that doesn't mean her voters are necessarily following her.

Some of them.

Some of them.

Well that's really important. I mean that could decide this race. When you say to moderate on things like tariffs, does Kamala Harris need to say we're the free market party now the Republican Party is now the isolation is tariff party?

Well that's really important. I mean that could decide this race. When you say to moderate on things like tariffs, does Kamala Harris need to say we're the free market party now the Republican Party is now the isolation is tariff party?

Well, you know, I think if you know, as you know, I'm part of a group of our Republican legacy and we're trying to get the Republican Party back to some core principles the Constitution.

Well, you know, I think if you know, as you know, I'm part of a group of our Republican legacy and we're trying to get the Republican Party back to some core principles the Constitution.

No, it does not include terraffs, so, but free markets, and.

No, it does not include terraffs, so, but free markets, and.

We would object to these types of high punitive tariffs. And we think protect the privileged few at the expense of the many. So we would you know, we were for the rule of law, we are for the Constitution, we are for free markets, for fiscal discipline and peace, to strength and embracing allies. So she has an opportunity to engage in constructive international foreign policy that embraces allies. I mean, she has an opportunity with those Hailey voters there, she has an opportunity with them, certainly on tariffs, where we reject this idea of raising taxes on everything that comes into the United States, you know, and of course we the consumers pay, and as we saw with the Trump tariffs on on much of the product coming in from China, we ended up paying more in subsidies to farmers and we took an in tariff revenue from China. And so yeah, so here's an opportunity for Nick, for Kamala Harris to get some of these voters the Democrats. I don't know if they're going to become a pure free market party, but there's the opportunity now, given where the Republican Party is under another.

We would object to these types of high punitive tariffs. And we think protect the privileged few at the expense of the many. So we would you know, we were for the rule of law, we are for the Constitution, we are for free markets, for fiscal discipline and peace, to strength and embracing allies. So she has an opportunity to engage in constructive international foreign policy that embraces allies. I mean, she has an opportunity with those Hailey voters there, she has an opportunity with them, certainly on tariffs, where we reject this idea of raising taxes on everything that comes into the United States, you know, and of course we the consumers pay, and as we saw with the Trump tariffs on on much of the product coming in from China, we ended up paying more in subsidies to farmers and we took an in tariff revenue from China. And so yeah, so here's an opportunity for Nick, for Kamala Harris to get some of these voters the Democrats. I don't know if they're going to become a pure free market party, but there's the opportunity now, given where the Republican Party is under another.

Macunity, to at least draw a contrast this group that you mentioned our Republican legacy. Is this a political action committee or a lobbying getting involved, for instance, in the argument over the Trump tax cuts.

Macunity, to at least draw a contrast this group that you mentioned our Republican legacy. Is this a political action committee or a lobbying getting involved, for instance, in the argument over the Trump tax cuts.

We are not a we're not a pack, we're not a super pack or a five OZHO one C four organization. We're not involved in advocating for or for or against any particular candidate for office. What we are are a lot of dispirited Republicans who want to stay part of the Republican Party, but simply want this party to go into a different direction. We want an alternative argument to Maga's argument. We believe we're looking on twenty twenty four that regardless of what happens in this election, we want this party to become focused on principles we've been the principles that we talk about the constitution.

We are not a we're not a pack, we're not a super pack or a five OZHO one C four organization. We're not involved in advocating for or for or against any particular candidate for office. What we are are a lot of dispirited Republicans who want to stay part of the Republican Party, but simply want this party to go into a different direction. We want an alternative argument to Maga's argument. We believe we're looking on twenty twenty four that regardless of what happens in this election, we want this party to become focused on principles we've been the principles that we talk about the constitution.

Rule of law, the Union.

Rule of law, the Union.

We talk about free markets, peace through strength, fiscal responsibility. These are principles that have that have sustained the party for one hundred and seventy years. The Maga argument, they really don't have core principles, and many of the principles I've just outlined are inconsistent or incompatible with what mag is talking about. On free markets, on peace through strength, we are in a very different place, and so what we want to do is create this argument. There is for far too long, there has been one side arguing the Maga argument, and there's been silence on the other end, and so we want to provide a different voice. We recognize we are in the minority right now, but we represent a significant number of Republicans who want a different direction for the party and for this country really fast.

We talk about free markets, peace through strength, fiscal responsibility. These are principles that have that have sustained the party for one hundred and seventy years. The Maga argument, they really don't have core principles, and many of the principles I've just outlined are inconsistent or incompatible with what mag is talking about. On free markets, on peace through strength, we are in a very different place, and so what we want to do is create this argument. There is for far too long, there has been one side arguing the Maga argument, and there's been silence on the other end, and so we want to provide a different voice. We recognize we are in the minority right now, but we represent a significant number of Republicans who want a different direction for the party and for this country really fast.

And you've got some very recognizable boldfaces on board with that group. Now, there was a conventional wisdom that MAGA would last as long as Donald Trump, that no one could replace the maestro here, and whether it was one or two terms, that would kind of be the extent of the movement. And by the way, I kept hearing that in Milwaukee, not a party, a movement when it came to MAGA. With that said, now we have jd Vance on board, and I also heard in Milwaukee that he's the heir apparent, that this is twenty twenty eight, that MAGA will live past Donald Trump. What do you say to.

And you've got some very recognizable boldfaces on board with that group. Now, there was a conventional wisdom that MAGA would last as long as Donald Trump, that no one could replace the maestro here, and whether it was one or two terms, that would kind of be the extent of the movement. And by the way, I kept hearing that in Milwaukee, not a party, a movement when it came to MAGA. With that said, now we have jd Vance on board, and I also heard in Milwaukee that he's the heir apparent, that this is twenty twenty eight, that MAGA will live past Donald Trump. What do you say to.

Them, Well, it's clear that jd Vance was selected as almost a legacy pick for Donald Trump.

Them, Well, it's clear that jd Vance was selected as almost a legacy pick for Donald Trump.

Jd Vance and a target districts like your old districts in Pennsylvania.

Jd Vance and a target districts like your old districts in Pennsylvania.

Yeah, although he'll have a tough time in my swing district. But look, jd Vance was selected because he can better articulate the MAGA agenda than frankly, Donald Trump can. That's what he doing and what we're doing is we're that is a movement. But what we are trying to do also is create a movement of Republicans who want something better. And you mentioned some of our leaders, Jack Danforth, Alan Simpson, Bill Cohen and many others who you know want to talk about this.

Yeah, although he'll have a tough time in my swing district. But look, jd Vance was selected because he can better articulate the MAGA agenda than frankly, Donald Trump can. That's what he doing and what we're doing is we're that is a movement. But what we are trying to do also is create a movement of Republicans who want something better. And you mentioned some of our leaders, Jack Danforth, Alan Simpson, Bill Cohen and many others who you know want to talk about this.

We want to engage in this debate with the MAGA crowd. We think we're on the right track. You know. J. D.

We want to engage in this debate with the MAGA crowd. We think we're on the right track. You know. J. D.

Vance, He's he's you know, he's basically chair of the Russia Appeasement Ukraine Surrender Caucus. That's not where we are as a as a as a as an organization.

Vance, He's he's you know, he's basically chair of the Russia Appeasement Ukraine Surrender Caucus. That's not where we are as a as a as a as an organization.

You know.

You know.

We we believe in these allies. We believe in pushing back against autocrats. We think that Russian aggression is is out of bounds and must be resisted.

We we believe in these allies. We believe in pushing back against autocrats. We think that Russian aggression is is out of bounds and must be resisted.

We don't want Putin to win, unlike you know Vance.

We don't want Putin to win, unlike you know Vance.

And so this is where I think we can draw some really hard contrasts that speak to the Republican Party.

And so this is where I think we can draw some really hard contrasts that speak to the Republican Party.

I know of Dwight.

I know of Dwight.

Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan and the Bushes and and and many many others.

Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan and the Bushes and and and many many others.

And so that's where we want to go.

And so that's where we want to go.

We we recognize the party's not going back to where it was, but we wanted to go to a better place, and we're ready to engage, you know, whatever mag is going to look like after Trump is off the state.

We we recognize the party's not going back to where it was, but we wanted to go to a better place, and we're ready to engage, you know, whatever mag is going to look like after Trump is off the state.

I'm really glad you could come talk to us about a Charlie Dent, former Republican congressman from Pennsylvania, the group Our Republican Legacy. It's great to see you. Thank you, sir. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.

I'm really glad you could come talk to us about a Charlie Dent, former Republican congressman from Pennsylvania, the group Our Republican Legacy. It's great to see you. Thank you, sir. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and Enrounoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa, Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and Enrounoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa, Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Nice Friday. Here in Washington, they're all gone. It's happened again. The lawmakers have left us for a six week tour into the end of summer. So you can park anywhere, get the table at the restaurant, whatever, run down the middle of the National Mall. If you're actually coming on a tourist trip here, you'll be awfully happy. The weather's beautiful as we try to figure out what's going to happen when they all come back, and what will happen in Chicago before that even takes place. The Democratic National Convention gets underway in just a few weeks, and before that is a virtual nominating event that's going to make this official, it seems. For Kamala Harris, the question is who will join her. And we're going to be talking much more about the deep steaks as we make our way through the following days here. But as we prepare to assemble our panel, Kamala Harris gets a phone call. I do get a kick out of this. Everyone's been waiting around to find out when the last big endorsement is going to drop, knowing that Barack Obama has been on the phone with Kamala Harris repeatedly since Joe Biden dropped out of the race. But you know, we got to spread this out. You got to use the news cycle a little bit. It's not hard to get It's just everyone gets their own day, right. So the phone rings, the Vice President answers, and who is it? Roll the tape.

Nice Friday. Here in Washington, they're all gone. It's happened again. The lawmakers have left us for a six week tour into the end of summer. So you can park anywhere, get the table at the restaurant, whatever, run down the middle of the National Mall. If you're actually coming on a tourist trip here, you'll be awfully happy. The weather's beautiful as we try to figure out what's going to happen when they all come back, and what will happen in Chicago before that even takes place. The Democratic National Convention gets underway in just a few weeks, and before that is a virtual nominating event that's going to make this official, it seems. For Kamala Harris, the question is who will join her. And we're going to be talking much more about the deep steaks as we make our way through the following days here. But as we prepare to assemble our panel, Kamala Harris gets a phone call. I do get a kick out of this. Everyone's been waiting around to find out when the last big endorsement is going to drop, knowing that Barack Obama has been on the phone with Kamala Harris repeatedly since Joe Biden dropped out of the race. But you know, we got to spread this out. You got to use the news cycle a little bit. It's not hard to get It's just everyone gets their own day, right. So the phone rings, the Vice President answers, and who is it? Roll the tape.

Kamalah, Hi, Hey.

Kamalah, Hi, Hey.

There, you're both to guess to hear you both.

There, you're both to guess to hear you both.

I can't have this phone call without saying to my girl, Kamala, I am proud of you. This is going to be historic.

I can't have this phone call without saying to my girl, Kamala, I am proud of you. This is going to be historic.

We called to say Michelle, and I couldn't be prouder to endorse you and to do everything we can to get you through this election and into the Oval.

We called to say Michelle, and I couldn't be prouder to endorse you and to do everything we can to get you through this election and into the Oval.

Oh my goodness, Michelle Bractice means so much to me.

Oh my goodness, Michelle Bractice means so much to me.

She's, of course not surprised anymore than we are. Let's assemble the panel. Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis with us. They've been following every beat of this story. Bloomberg Politics contributors of course. Genie at Iona University, political science professor as well senior Democracy Fellow with the Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congress. Rick Davis, partner at Stone Court Capital, the smartest pair in the business. Great to see you both, Genie. Is this a little bit too much for you?

She's, of course not surprised anymore than we are. Let's assemble the panel. Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis with us. They've been following every beat of this story. Bloomberg Politics contributors of course. Genie at Iona University, political science professor as well senior Democracy Fellow with the Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congress. Rick Davis, partner at Stone Court Capital, the smartest pair in the business. Great to see you both, Genie. Is this a little bit too much for you?

Or?

Or?

I mean, is this fun to watch? Everyone said, you can't believe he's calling. How did we land the Obamas? But it is important for her to get this done right.

I mean, is this fun to watch? Everyone said, you can't believe he's calling. How did we land the Obamas? But it is important for her to get this done right.

Important for her to get that. I felt actually a little badly for her watching that. I hate b roll And of course she knew to your point that was coming, and it's hard to look natural when you're doing something like that. So she did pretty well. It was expected there'd been some consternation that the Obama's, particularly Barack Obama, had been a little bit slow on doing this, but I think he didn't want to get ahead of the party and make it look like a coronation. And so here we have what we knew was going to happen. I would say one important thing. It was not Jess Barack, it was Michelle as well. And I think that speaks volume to the fact they are both going to be on the campaign trail. And can I tell you when I had my long sit over in the airport when we were trying to leave Milwaukee, the one name I heard from Republicans who were there with me that they were concerned about run against Donald Trump. Michelle Obama. Of course she is not running, but that fact she's going to be on the campaign trail. It's not scientific, but there.

Important for her to get that. I felt actually a little badly for her watching that. I hate b roll And of course she knew to your point that was coming, and it's hard to look natural when you're doing something like that. So she did pretty well. It was expected there'd been some consternation that the Obama's, particularly Barack Obama, had been a little bit slow on doing this, but I think he didn't want to get ahead of the party and make it look like a coronation. And so here we have what we knew was going to happen. I would say one important thing. It was not Jess Barack, it was Michelle as well. And I think that speaks volume to the fact they are both going to be on the campaign trail. And can I tell you when I had my long sit over in the airport when we were trying to leave Milwaukee, the one name I heard from Republicans who were there with me that they were concerned about run against Donald Trump. Michelle Obama. Of course she is not running, but that fact she's going to be on the campaign trail. It's not scientific, but there.

You have it.

You have it.

Isn't that something?

Isn't that something?

Rick?

Rick?

Just think of these Republicans stuck in an airport gate with Jeanie Shanzino sharing strategy ideas. Is this important? And I ask you this, Rick Davis, Your candidate ran against Barack Obama or Barack and Michelle Obama still the kryptonite. They were on the campaign trail you know, I think.

Just think of these Republicans stuck in an airport gate with Jeanie Shanzino sharing strategy ideas. Is this important? And I ask you this, Rick Davis, Your candidate ran against Barack Obama or Barack and Michelle Obama still the kryptonite. They were on the campaign trail you know, I think.

They serve a useful purpose. They're not the kryptonite they used to be, but there's still you know, Democratic Party Royalty. Not exactly sure how they appealed to swing voters. They haven't been on a ballot in a long time. People tend to forget. But also the longer you're out office, the more popular you are. So certainly the barnacles that he might have had on right after he left office aren't there now. So yeah, I actually thought it was a pretty inventive way to do this. Obviously, it was finally tuned and orchestrated. There was nothing spontaneous about it. They captured the best audio I've heard in a commercial in a long time, and so, you know, job done right. I mean, this is sort of the last tumbler to fall before she announces the big pick and onto the convention. So I really feel like, actually, what I expected to be a hot mess for Democrats who aren't typically this well organized, this thing has gone really swimmingly for her. And if they can keep it up to the convention, she's off to a great start.

They serve a useful purpose. They're not the kryptonite they used to be, but there's still you know, Democratic Party Royalty. Not exactly sure how they appealed to swing voters. They haven't been on a ballot in a long time. People tend to forget. But also the longer you're out office, the more popular you are. So certainly the barnacles that he might have had on right after he left office aren't there now. So yeah, I actually thought it was a pretty inventive way to do this. Obviously, it was finally tuned and orchestrated. There was nothing spontaneous about it. They captured the best audio I've heard in a commercial in a long time, and so, you know, job done right. I mean, this is sort of the last tumbler to fall before she announces the big pick and onto the convention. So I really feel like, actually, what I expected to be a hot mess for Democrats who aren't typically this well organized, this thing has gone really swimmingly for her. And if they can keep it up to the convention, she's off to a great start.

Wow, that's Rick Davis talking Democrats. Were you convinced by this genie? We don't see them, we just hear the voices. Clearly it was staged. I like to think they told her who was calling. Did it work for you?

Wow, that's Rick Davis talking Democrats. Were you convinced by this genie? We don't see them, we just hear the voices. Clearly it was staged. I like to think they told her who was calling. Did it work for you?

You know it did? I mean, you know, it's really really tough to make these things look spontaneous. I thought it was fine. I would have preferred, of course, them coming and doing something in person. I understand time whyse that is not a reality, But I think it also gives Democrats something to wait for. Imagine if in Chicago that you know, she is introduced by Barack, Michelle, Joe and Jill there you go. I mean, that would be exciting for Democrats. So maybe we have to hold off for that. But you know, I thought all in all it worked fine. I didn't have any complaints about it. And I think to Rick's point, this has all gone a lot better than I imagined it could have or would have, with the exception of the slow sort of eking out of the advertising which is coming now.

You know it did? I mean, you know, it's really really tough to make these things look spontaneous. I thought it was fine. I would have preferred, of course, them coming and doing something in person. I understand time whyse that is not a reality, But I think it also gives Democrats something to wait for. Imagine if in Chicago that you know, she is introduced by Barack, Michelle, Joe and Jill there you go. I mean, that would be exciting for Democrats. So maybe we have to hold off for that. But you know, I thought all in all it worked fine. I didn't have any complaints about it. And I think to Rick's point, this has all gone a lot better than I imagined it could have or would have, with the exception of the slow sort of eking out of the advertising which is coming now.

So that's a good sign.

So that's a good sign.

So you're predicting the Democratic avengers at the convention in Chicago. We've got our first big poll here. It's a national poll at least that I'll start with Rick Siena College New York Times. We talk about this one a lot here. It was taken after the president stepped aside. Kind of interesting to see this overall. Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris forty eight percent to forty seven percent. She's narrowed this to just one point. Is it too early, considering all the noise in the race right now to get an accurate read or does this mean something yet?

So you're predicting the Democratic avengers at the convention in Chicago. We've got our first big poll here. It's a national poll at least that I'll start with Rick Siena College New York Times. We talk about this one a lot here. It was taken after the president stepped aside. Kind of interesting to see this overall. Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris forty eight percent to forty seven percent. She's narrowed this to just one point. Is it too early, considering all the noise in the race right now to get an accurate read or does this mean something yet?

My first caveat, as you know, I hate national polls, and I hate him even more in the summer. So that being said, it is an interesting poll. In fact, Kamala Harris is up when you build in the five way ballot, and it's pretty clear that one of the things you can draw from this is that Kennedy's candidacy potentially now takes way more from Trump than it does from Harris, which is a new development. The other thing I found in this poll, which was shocking to me, is that the mood of the country has approved dramatically since the Republican Convention. I don't know what they did there, but you know, the right Track is up twenty seven points. I mean, that is phenomenal, and so that boat lifts the Biden administration, which lifts Harris. So I think that she's getting a lot of acceleration in her numbers or fave U fave is way up. She's much more popular now than she was before the anointment. And I don't know, it looks like a completely different campaign to me, and I suspect we'll see more and more of this kind of pulling as people's opinions start.

My first caveat, as you know, I hate national polls, and I hate him even more in the summer. So that being said, it is an interesting poll. In fact, Kamala Harris is up when you build in the five way ballot, and it's pretty clear that one of the things you can draw from this is that Kennedy's candidacy potentially now takes way more from Trump than it does from Harris, which is a new development. The other thing I found in this poll, which was shocking to me, is that the mood of the country has approved dramatically since the Republican Convention. I don't know what they did there, but you know, the right Track is up twenty seven points. I mean, that is phenomenal, and so that boat lifts the Biden administration, which lifts Harris. So I think that she's getting a lot of acceleration in her numbers or fave U fave is way up. She's much more popular now than she was before the anointment. And I don't know, it looks like a completely different campaign to me, and I suspect we'll see more and more of this kind of pulling as people's opinions start.

To Gell producer James referring to the you singer bump. If you're from Milwaukee, you know what that means. But Genie, I'll tell you what. We heard a lot from Republicans to Rick's point in Milwaukee about unity. Did they in fact unify the Democratic Party?

To Gell producer James referring to the you singer bump. If you're from Milwaukee, you know what that means. But Genie, I'll tell you what. We heard a lot from Republicans to Rick's point in Milwaukee about unity. Did they in fact unify the Democratic Party?

You know, I think Joe Biden getting out did that. And of course there's nothing that gets Democrats going like a unified party behind Donald Trump. That said, I don't see this as a new race. In particular, what shocked me about this is we are, into a certain extent, right back where we were before Joe Biden's implosion in the debate, Tamala Harris and Donald Trump in a dead heat. You know, looking at the margin of era, you can't say she's up or down. To Rick's point, this is a national poll. But here's the problem for Democrats. Democrats cannot be tied or lose in the popular vote and win the electoral college. Only Republicans can at this point. So this to me is a warning sign to Democrats. Yes, you are back where you were. You have a candidate who is not in his eighties and that has had this rally around the candidate effect. But the reality is the issues that were pinned on Joe Biden, except for age, are still there and you still have a very very narrow window here. And so I think what this said is Democrats and Kamala Harris have a lot of work to do. She's got to define herself before the Republicans. I mean, they are out there defining her. She's trying to do the same. If they define her as liberal, that is a big, big problem for her to win in these swing states, particularly in those acorn restbel states. So I thought this was better than when Joe Biden was in a few weeks ago, but it's right back where Democrats were when they were concerned before his debate.

You know, I think Joe Biden getting out did that. And of course there's nothing that gets Democrats going like a unified party behind Donald Trump. That said, I don't see this as a new race. In particular, what shocked me about this is we are, into a certain extent, right back where we were before Joe Biden's implosion in the debate, Tamala Harris and Donald Trump in a dead heat. You know, looking at the margin of era, you can't say she's up or down. To Rick's point, this is a national poll. But here's the problem for Democrats. Democrats cannot be tied or lose in the popular vote and win the electoral college. Only Republicans can at this point. So this to me is a warning sign to Democrats. Yes, you are back where you were. You have a candidate who is not in his eighties and that has had this rally around the candidate effect. But the reality is the issues that were pinned on Joe Biden, except for age, are still there and you still have a very very narrow window here. And so I think what this said is Democrats and Kamala Harris have a lot of work to do. She's got to define herself before the Republicans. I mean, they are out there defining her. She's trying to do the same. If they define her as liberal, that is a big, big problem for her to win in these swing states, particularly in those acorn restbel states. So I thought this was better than when Joe Biden was in a few weeks ago, but it's right back where Democrats were when they were concerned before his debate.

Interesting. Well, I'll tell you what to Rick's point, though, I guess the rising tide lifting all boats here, remember the double haters. Talked with Don Levey at Sienna about the double haters and with Rick and Genie a loon. The number of voters who disliked both candidates in this poll plunging to eight percent. That is down from twenty percent so far this year. But Donald Trump's polster, Tony Fabrizio Rick predicting in a memo here that before long, the Harris honeymoon will end and voters will refocus on her role as Joe Biden's partner and co pilot. Would you be banking on that if you were running the Trump campaign? Let this last a couple of weeks, maybe through the convention that we get real.

Interesting. Well, I'll tell you what to Rick's point, though, I guess the rising tide lifting all boats here, remember the double haters. Talked with Don Levey at Sienna about the double haters and with Rick and Genie a loon. The number of voters who disliked both candidates in this poll plunging to eight percent. That is down from twenty percent so far this year. But Donald Trump's polster, Tony Fabrizio Rick predicting in a memo here that before long, the Harris honeymoon will end and voters will refocus on her role as Joe Biden's partner and co pilot. Would you be banking on that if you were running the Trump campaign? Let this last a couple of weeks, maybe through the convention that we get real.

I think this is solely up to the Trump campaign. If Tony wants to make good on this, they're going to have to pour about one hundred million dollars of their cash stash into TV ads saying exactly that. Genie's right. One of the things that comes out in this poll, and I think we'll see in others, is that even though Harris has good fave un fav, actually you know, in some surveys I'm seeing now with Republicans, with Republican posters, she's actually more positive than negative, which I never thought i'd live to see that. The reality is, though, she's not well defined, and so Republicans can spend the money to define her. But I'd remind everybody that Democrats have been spending six times more on TV this point in time in this election than Republicans have, so they got to get in this. But I disagree with Jennie. I think this is a completely different set of terms. Donald Trump is now leading with some senior voters that he was losing by five or six to Biden. Kamala Harris is now up with young people in a way that was never seen under the Biden prensisent, And there has been an alignment of vote where the Democratic base, young people, Hispanics, blacks are coming back to the Democratic Party that had fled it before the debate meltdown. And this campaign is getting readjusted arguably better for Trump in the Midwest states like Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but better for Harris in the Sun Belt. I mean, that is a different race than what we had going into the debate.

I think this is solely up to the Trump campaign. If Tony wants to make good on this, they're going to have to pour about one hundred million dollars of their cash stash into TV ads saying exactly that. Genie's right. One of the things that comes out in this poll, and I think we'll see in others, is that even though Harris has good fave un fav, actually you know, in some surveys I'm seeing now with Republicans, with Republican posters, she's actually more positive than negative, which I never thought i'd live to see that. The reality is, though, she's not well defined, and so Republicans can spend the money to define her. But I'd remind everybody that Democrats have been spending six times more on TV this point in time in this election than Republicans have, so they got to get in this. But I disagree with Jennie. I think this is a completely different set of terms. Donald Trump is now leading with some senior voters that he was losing by five or six to Biden. Kamala Harris is now up with young people in a way that was never seen under the Biden prensisent, And there has been an alignment of vote where the Democratic base, young people, Hispanics, blacks are coming back to the Democratic Party that had fled it before the debate meltdown. And this campaign is getting readjusted arguably better for Trump in the Midwest states like Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but better for Harris in the Sun Belt. I mean, that is a different race than what we had going into the debate.

As we turn our attention to the Sun Belt. Just one minute left here, Jeanie, how long will the Harris honeymoon last If that's what this is.

As we turn our attention to the Sun Belt. Just one minute left here, Jeanie, how long will the Harris honeymoon last If that's what this is.

I don't think it's going to last long. And the reality is there are more younger and people of color voters in those sun Belt states. She can eke some of those over, but it doesn't change the fact that Democrats need to not do worse than Clinton and Biden did with non college white voters in those rust Belt states. And that's the reality of this came in and that's what I mean when it hasn't changed. She is still going to have to win those rust Belt states all things considered, assuming she doesn't pick up a sun Belt state, and it doesn't look at this point like that's in the author.

I don't think it's going to last long. And the reality is there are more younger and people of color voters in those sun Belt states. She can eke some of those over, but it doesn't change the fact that Democrats need to not do worse than Clinton and Biden did with non college white voters in those rust Belt states. And that's the reality of this came in and that's what I mean when it hasn't changed. She is still going to have to win those rust Belt states all things considered, assuming she doesn't pick up a sun Belt state, and it doesn't look at this point like that's in the author.

Great conversation with our panel, that's Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis, of course, our signature panel on Balance of Power. They'll be back in hour two after we dig into some swing state data as well. Spencer Kimball from Emerson College Polling Center will join us as we welcome our global television audience to the conversation. I told you we had a lot to talk about today.

Great conversation with our panel, that's Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis, of course, our signature panel on Balance of Power. They'll be back in hour two after we dig into some swing state data as well. Spencer Kimball from Emerson College Polling Center will join us as we welcome our global television audience to the conversation. I told you we had a lot to talk about today.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Eppocarplay and then Brunoro with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Eppocarplay and then Brunoro with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

What world will be be in? What will that feel like if there is an interest rate cut in September, right around the same time Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are set reportedly to debate and people start really making up their minds on how they're going to vote in November. It couldn't be more important to us here on Balance of Power as we stick with the bead of course on politics and add the voice of an expert. Spencer Kimball, who runs the polling center at Emerson College, is with us and it's great to have you back. Spencer. Welcome back to Balance of Power. I want to get into some new polling. This is really important because Emerson is one of the first to emerge, if not the first, with swing state data in the wake of Joe Biden stepping down and dropping out of this race, and we do have head to head numbers on Trump versus Harris. Important to note here as I read from Emerson College that Vice President Kamala Harris is trailing Donald Trump in four states and tied in another that would be Wisconsin. But I want to start at a higher level with you, Spencer, before we dig into the granular here. The Trump campaign has been trying to telegraph this as essentially a blip on the radar. It's the same race, the same candidate, just with a different name. In fact, we keep hearing about the Biden Harris administration when Donald Trump speaks and Republicans kickout messages this week. How about you as a polster? Is this a game changer? Are we throwing up the pieces in the air or is this just a slight aberration on the way to November.

What world will be be in? What will that feel like if there is an interest rate cut in September, right around the same time Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are set reportedly to debate and people start really making up their minds on how they're going to vote in November. It couldn't be more important to us here on Balance of Power as we stick with the bead of course on politics and add the voice of an expert. Spencer Kimball, who runs the polling center at Emerson College, is with us and it's great to have you back. Spencer. Welcome back to Balance of Power. I want to get into some new polling. This is really important because Emerson is one of the first to emerge, if not the first, with swing state data in the wake of Joe Biden stepping down and dropping out of this race, and we do have head to head numbers on Trump versus Harris. Important to note here as I read from Emerson College that Vice President Kamala Harris is trailing Donald Trump in four states and tied in another that would be Wisconsin. But I want to start at a higher level with you, Spencer, before we dig into the granular here. The Trump campaign has been trying to telegraph this as essentially a blip on the radar. It's the same race, the same candidate, just with a different name. In fact, we keep hearing about the Biden Harris administration when Donald Trump speaks and Republicans kickout messages this week. How about you as a polster? Is this a game changer? Are we throwing up the pieces in the air or is this just a slight aberration on the way to November.

Well, Joe, I think it was a game changer in the sense that after the first debate with President Biden, the Democrats are slowly drifting away from his or supporting his candidacy. And with Harris now the presumption, the presumption nominee, she kind of bounced back. She got that younger boat coming back to her. She's got some of that minority boat. So I'm not sure if it's enough to put her over the top, but it's definitely brought it back to a competitive race.

Well, Joe, I think it was a game changer in the sense that after the first debate with President Biden, the Democrats are slowly drifting away from his or supporting his candidacy. And with Harris now the presumption, the presumption nominee, she kind of bounced back. She got that younger boat coming back to her. She's got some of that minority boat. So I'm not sure if it's enough to put her over the top, but it's definitely brought it back to a competitive race.

So let's take a look here. If you're with us on Bloomberg TV or on YouTube, you can see the data as we follow along with Emerson College. Here Arizona, you've got forty four for Kamala Harris, forty nine for Trump. He's leading as well in Georgia forty eight, forty six. He's leading in Michigan forty six, forty five, Pennsylvania forty eight, forty six, and we're tied in Wisconsin. You could argue that these are the five states that will determine the race. Our swing state pole in fact includes seven, but Spencer, that tie in Wisconsin should tell us a lot. How do these compare to where we were with Joe Biden.

So let's take a look here. If you're with us on Bloomberg TV or on YouTube, you can see the data as we follow along with Emerson College. Here Arizona, you've got forty four for Kamala Harris, forty nine for Trump. He's leading as well in Georgia forty eight, forty six. He's leading in Michigan forty six, forty five, Pennsylvania forty eight, forty six, and we're tied in Wisconsin. You could argue that these are the five states that will determine the race. Our swing state pole in fact includes seven, but Spencer, that tie in Wisconsin should tell us a lot. How do these compare to where we were with Joe Biden.

Well, it's interesting out in the Midwest. You're watching Harris competing much stronger than where Biden ended up last week after the debate, But where she struggles is out in Arizona. And Arizona's different than these other states. When we ask them their most important issue. For Arizona, it's immigration thirty percent. All of these other states that you mentioned forty percent was economy was their top issue, and Arizona's different and that's why potentially you're seeing a different result there at a five point lead while all of the other polls are within one or two points.

Well, it's interesting out in the Midwest. You're watching Harris competing much stronger than where Biden ended up last week after the debate, But where she struggles is out in Arizona. And Arizona's different than these other states. When we ask them their most important issue. For Arizona, it's immigration thirty percent. All of these other states that you mentioned forty percent was economy was their top issue, and Arizona's different and that's why potentially you're seeing a different result there at a five point lead while all of the other polls are within one or two points.

Not a surprise then to see gop ads and there have been several already made targeting Kamala Harris, all focus on her record on immigration and border policy. Is that going to be the Achilles Heel for the Kamala Harris campaign, knowing that she was assigned to the border by Joe Biden.

Not a surprise then to see gop ads and there have been several already made targeting Kamala Harris, all focus on her record on immigration and border policy. Is that going to be the Achilles Heel for the Kamala Harris campaign, knowing that she was assigned to the border by Joe Biden.

Well, certainly President or former President Trump try to connect her to that issue. We'll see obviously out west how much that's going to play. We're going to take a look at New Mexico and Nevada where that might be a big issue for those voters on the border. But then we got to look out at the Midwest and see how they're playing with immigration. That's really a secondary issue. It's about ten percent as the most important issue in those states. As I mentioned, the economy that's up at forty percent. So while there might be some benefit on some movement on the immigration, I think in those other states it's going to be about the economy.

Well, certainly President or former President Trump try to connect her to that issue. We'll see obviously out west how much that's going to play. We're going to take a look at New Mexico and Nevada where that might be a big issue for those voters on the border. But then we got to look out at the Midwest and see how they're playing with immigration. That's really a secondary issue. It's about ten percent as the most important issue in those states. As I mentioned, the economy that's up at forty percent. So while there might be some benefit on some movement on the immigration, I think in those other states it's going to be about the economy.

You talked to Democrats about who delegates should support here and pretty remarkable considering where we were Spencer even a week ago talking about various governors, whether it was Cooper or Basher, Shapiro Whitmer, the Democrat bench was full. We heard and within my goodness, twenty four hours of Joe Biden announcing his decision, when he kicked out that letter, Kamala Harris had the delegates to close the deal. Did you learn from talking with Democrats in.

You talked to Democrats about who delegates should support here and pretty remarkable considering where we were Spencer even a week ago talking about various governors, whether it was Cooper or Basher, Shapiro Whitmer, the Democrat bench was full. We heard and within my goodness, twenty four hours of Joe Biden announcing his decision, when he kicked out that letter, Kamala Harris had the delegates to close the deal. Did you learn from talking with Democrats in.

This pool, Well, generally speaking, they're rallying around Harris. As you notice, about eighty percent in each state like Harris to be the nominee. And so that I think has a lot to do with some fallout from President Biden's debate performance where Democrats were really concerned about not being able to beat Donald Trump. They see in Vice President Harris a potential candidate who will be more competitive, and that's what we're seeing in the numbers.

This pool, Well, generally speaking, they're rallying around Harris. As you notice, about eighty percent in each state like Harris to be the nominee. And so that I think has a lot to do with some fallout from President Biden's debate performance where Democrats were really concerned about not being able to beat Donald Trump. They see in Vice President Harris a potential candidate who will be more competitive, and that's what we're seeing in the numbers.

Let's play the veepstakes here. You asked voters about her selection of a running mate, Spencer.

Let's play the veepstakes here. You asked voters about her selection of a running mate, Spencer.

Would you learn, Well, each state has their favorite son or daughter. We can go up to Michigan and they want their governor Gretchen Whitmer. If we go out to Arizona, they want their Senator Mark Kelly. Georgia Wisconsin, they're not quite sure. They kind of jump around between Pete Boudage Edge and Bernie Sanders. But probably the strongest candidate out there is Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, very popular in his home state, and Pennsylvania is the most electoral vote it's up for grabs.

Would you learn, Well, each state has their favorite son or daughter. We can go up to Michigan and they want their governor Gretchen Whitmer. If we go out to Arizona, they want their Senator Mark Kelly. Georgia Wisconsin, they're not quite sure. They kind of jump around between Pete Boudage Edge and Bernie Sanders. But probably the strongest candidate out there is Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania, very popular in his home state, and Pennsylvania is the most electoral vote it's up for grabs.

Well, yeah, you just among Democratic voters overall, Shapiro gets fifty seven percent. Next in line Mark Kelly at forty two percent. Is it because Democrats believe Shapiro can carry Pennsylvania for Kamala Harris.

Well, yeah, you just among Democratic voters overall, Shapiro gets fifty seven percent. Next in line Mark Kelly at forty two percent. Is it because Democrats believe Shapiro can carry Pennsylvania for Kamala Harris.

Well, I'm not sure if that's what's driving Shapiro's support, but I do notice is that He's got a lot of support amongst younger voters, and we don't really see that with any other Democratic candidate except for Bernie Sanders. So it would be interesting if he could kind of carry that baton of the youth vote that Bernie Sanders has been carrying for about eight years.

Well, I'm not sure if that's what's driving Shapiro's support, but I do notice is that He's got a lot of support amongst younger voters, and we don't really see that with any other Democratic candidate except for Bernie Sanders. So it would be interesting if he could kind of carry that baton of the youth vote that Bernie Sanders has been carrying for about eight years.

Well, it's interesting too to see Arizona Senator Mark Kelly forty two percent prefer their senator. Maybe that shouldn't be a surprise, But I wonder your thoughts on the Sun Belt versus the Rust Belt. Our Republican analyst Rick Davis was talking about this a bit earlier that we spent so much time talking about the blue Wall that it was Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and Kamala harri may be opening a new path in the sun Belt states, do you agree?

Well, it's interesting too to see Arizona Senator Mark Kelly forty two percent prefer their senator. Maybe that shouldn't be a surprise, But I wonder your thoughts on the Sun Belt versus the Rust Belt. Our Republican analyst Rick Davis was talking about this a bit earlier that we spent so much time talking about the blue Wall that it was Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and Kamala harri may be opening a new path in the sun Belt states, do you agree?

Not?

Not?

Right now? Look at Arizona. That's that's a big five points right there that she has to make up, and the top issue there is not something that is her strength. Maybe on the economy, as you were mentioning earlier, it seems to be rebounding. The markets are doing better. That might be you know, Bidenomics might be a campaign theme more than the immigration. So it's going to be interesting in the Sunbelt. North Carolina was a state that we kind of moved off of the swing states. We'll see if she can bring it back in about you know, a fifth of the population there as African American, so that might give her a bounce in North Carolina. But giving giving up that Blue Wall, that's a big path for the Democratic success and I would be very hesitant to do that.

Right now? Look at Arizona. That's that's a big five points right there that she has to make up, and the top issue there is not something that is her strength. Maybe on the economy, as you were mentioning earlier, it seems to be rebounding. The markets are doing better. That might be you know, Bidenomics might be a campaign theme more than the immigration. So it's going to be interesting in the Sunbelt. North Carolina was a state that we kind of moved off of the swing states. We'll see if she can bring it back in about you know, a fifth of the population there as African American, so that might give her a bounce in North Carolina. But giving giving up that Blue Wall, that's a big path for the Democratic success and I would be very hesitant to do that.

So it sounds a lot like Shapiro to me based on this conversation, But I know the rules change based on the campaign. You asked an important question, Spencer and I don't mean to be reading into this. You can tell me if I'm going in the wrong direction here. But a majority of Democratic voters in each state you talk to think Kamala Harris should be nominated at the Democratic National Convention this August. Does that imply that they do not want her to be nominated in this virtual call about a week from now.

So it sounds a lot like Shapiro to me based on this conversation, But I know the rules change based on the campaign. You asked an important question, Spencer and I don't mean to be reading into this. You can tell me if I'm going in the wrong direction here. But a majority of Democratic voters in each state you talk to think Kamala Harris should be nominated at the Democratic National Convention this August. Does that imply that they do not want her to be nominated in this virtual call about a week from now.

I'm not sure about that. I think the virtual call is kind of going under the radar. That has to deal with the Ohio ballot access issue. It's going to obviously deal with potentially her running mate. If that call has to go forward. It's a little gray about the necessity of that call. But regarding the convention, I think that they I don't think that they would mix it up. I think they're looking for a new horse, and they were concerned that the president wasn't going to be able to win. And that's why we used to this.

I'm not sure about that. I think the virtual call is kind of going under the radar. That has to deal with the Ohio ballot access issue. It's going to obviously deal with potentially her running mate. If that call has to go forward. It's a little gray about the necessity of that call. But regarding the convention, I think that they I don't think that they would mix it up. I think they're looking for a new horse, and they were concerned that the president wasn't going to be able to win. And that's why we used to this.

As we spend time with Spencer Kimball from Emerson College pulling out with some of the first swing state data we're seeing since Joe Biden dropped out of the race, we're waiting for a debate, Spencer, I bet you are too, and it's interesting because we don't know if we're going to have one now. Kamala Harris tweeting last night what happened to anytime any place? Because Donald Trump, I guess, doesn't like the venue or the network here that we were looking at for the next one. Trump spokes with Steve Chung says debate plans quote cannot be finalized until Democrats formally decide on their nominee. Based on your experience, do you think Trump's trying to get out of this and will that have a bearing on polling and the final result in November? Voters want to see these two on stage together, right.

As we spend time with Spencer Kimball from Emerson College pulling out with some of the first swing state data we're seeing since Joe Biden dropped out of the race, we're waiting for a debate, Spencer, I bet you are too, and it's interesting because we don't know if we're going to have one now. Kamala Harris tweeting last night what happened to anytime any place? Because Donald Trump, I guess, doesn't like the venue or the network here that we were looking at for the next one. Trump spokes with Steve Chung says debate plans quote cannot be finalized until Democrats formally decide on their nominee. Based on your experience, do you think Trump's trying to get out of this and will that have a bearing on polling and the final result in November? Voters want to see these two on stage together, right.

I would think so. I'm hoping that there'll be a debate. Obviously, the last debate had tremendous impact on this race, and so we'll see what the next debate might have. But with that said, voters are going to kind of come back after Labor Day and focus in. And we've seen this previous years. If you remember sixteen years ago, John McCain was up too points after his convention and ends up losing to Obama by seven or eight. So we see these swings in the polls when different things occur. This is a big shake up and I think it's going to take a few weeks for things to settle down.

I would think so. I'm hoping that there'll be a debate. Obviously, the last debate had tremendous impact on this race, and so we'll see what the next debate might have. But with that said, voters are going to kind of come back after Labor Day and focus in. And we've seen this previous years. If you remember sixteen years ago, John McCain was up too points after his convention and ends up losing to Obama by seven or eight. So we see these swings in the polls when different things occur. This is a big shake up and I think it's going to take a few weeks for things to settle down.

Interesting to see no Trump Convention bump. Is that fair to say?

Interesting to see no Trump Convention bump. Is that fair to say?

Yeah?

Yeah?

I would say that the Biden Trump kind of got his bump the previous week on the attempted assassination. You saw it in the polls. He was up six points nationally. We haven't seen a Republican up that much since George Bush in ninety and eighty eight, So that was a long you know, I was a big bump, he seems, you know, with Biden dropping out on Sunday, that seems to have taken away that momentum if there was momentum with the JD. Vans pick. And then now we're talking about the Democrats.

I would say that the Biden Trump kind of got his bump the previous week on the attempted assassination. You saw it in the polls. He was up six points nationally. We haven't seen a Republican up that much since George Bush in ninety and eighty eight, So that was a long you know, I was a big bump, he seems, you know, with Biden dropping out on Sunday, that seems to have taken away that momentum if there was momentum with the JD. Vans pick. And then now we're talking about the Democrats.

Well, I'm glad you could join. As always Spencer Kimball with the breakdown on new numbers from Emerson College Polling, where he is the director. We'll play it to the panel next. Davis, by the way, says they lost by six, but who's counting? This is Bloomberg.

Well, I'm glad you could join. As always Spencer Kimball with the breakdown on new numbers from Emerson College Polling, where he is the director. We'll play it to the panel next. Davis, by the way, says they lost by six, but who's counting? This is Bloomberg.

Your listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Roudoo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Thanks for joining us on the Friday edition. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, where yesterday it was all about Benjamin Nettanna, who here meeting with the President of the United States. We talked about it at length. He brought you in the Oval Office for the pool spray, as they call it, as these two sat down, not agreeing on everything these days, certainly when it comes to a ceasefire. But there was another meeting that Benjamin Netanya who held yesterday, and that was with the Vice President Kamala Harris. Now, of course, suddenly at the top of the ticket, she gets her own sit down, her own one on one with Benjamin Netan Yahoo, having an opportunity to delve into foreign policy, and unlike the president, this is really interesting. Kamala Harris spoke to the press after her meeting. We did not hear from Joe Biden following his Here's a bit of what she said.

Thanks for joining us on the Friday edition. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, where yesterday it was all about Benjamin Nettanna, who here meeting with the President of the United States. We talked about it at length. He brought you in the Oval Office for the pool spray, as they call it, as these two sat down, not agreeing on everything these days, certainly when it comes to a ceasefire. But there was another meeting that Benjamin Netanya who held yesterday, and that was with the Vice President Kamala Harris. Now, of course, suddenly at the top of the ticket, she gets her own sit down, her own one on one with Benjamin Netan Yahoo, having an opportunity to delve into foreign policy, and unlike the president, this is really interesting. Kamala Harris spoke to the press after her meeting. We did not hear from Joe Biden following his Here's a bit of what she said.

It is time for this war to end, and end in a way where Israel is secure, all the hostages are released, the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza ends, and the Palestinian people can exercise their right to freedom, dignity, and self determination.

It is time for this war to end, and end in a way where Israel is secure, all the hostages are released, the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza ends, and the Palestinian people can exercise their right to freedom, dignity, and self determination.

We assemble our panel for their take on this moment in the campaign. Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis are with us. Of course, Bloomberg Politics contributors are signature panel and a really interesting take earlier today in Politico Genie that in fact, Kamala Harris is saying all of the same things, essentially almost most word for word as Joe Biden, but her words are being interpreted differently by Democrats here in Washington, many of whom have been critical of Joe Biden for the lack of a ceasefire deal for the number of civilian casualties in Gaza. How does she leverage this moment for her campaign?

We assemble our panel for their take on this moment in the campaign. Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis are with us. Of course, Bloomberg Politics contributors are signature panel and a really interesting take earlier today in Politico Genie that in fact, Kamala Harris is saying all of the same things, essentially almost most word for word as Joe Biden, but her words are being interpreted differently by Democrats here in Washington, many of whom have been critical of Joe Biden for the lack of a ceasefire deal for the number of civilian casualties in Gaza. How does she leverage this moment for her campaign?

Yeah, I mean I agree with that assessment. I think for many Democrats, we all know this has been such a divisive issue, and yesterday's speech, if you will, by Kamala Harris was so important because it's the first time we've heard her speak out in her own voice, not just as an emissary of Joe Biden on a foreign policy issue. And what struck me was how similar it was in substance to the Biden campaign or the Biden administration rather, but how her words were being interpreted differently, in part because her rhetoric is a bit different.

Yeah, I mean I agree with that assessment. I think for many Democrats, we all know this has been such a divisive issue, and yesterday's speech, if you will, by Kamala Harris was so important because it's the first time we've heard her speak out in her own voice, not just as an emissary of Joe Biden on a foreign policy issue. And what struck me was how similar it was in substance to the Biden campaign or the Biden administration rather, but how her words were being interpreted differently, in part because her rhetoric is a bit different.

She was.

She was.

You know, it was noticed bull, for instance, that she took the time to carefully read out the names of each of those American hostages held by hamas she talked about the fact that Israel has a right to defend itself. And then she also walked this line of saying that she understands and is sensitive to the amount of civilian casualties and devastation in the Gaza Strip. So from that perspective, the rhetoric was a little bit sharper, if you will, than Joe Biden's has ever been, but the substance was the same, and I think this is something that is going to be left unresolved for Democrats. You know, that's the first time and in my mind, she's walking a very similar line to the Biden administration. Let's get a deal done, but there's not really a different path forward to doing that, if you will.

You know, it was noticed bull, for instance, that she took the time to carefully read out the names of each of those American hostages held by hamas she talked about the fact that Israel has a right to defend itself. And then she also walked this line of saying that she understands and is sensitive to the amount of civilian casualties and devastation in the Gaza Strip. So from that perspective, the rhetoric was a little bit sharper, if you will, than Joe Biden's has ever been, but the substance was the same, and I think this is something that is going to be left unresolved for Democrats. You know, that's the first time and in my mind, she's walking a very similar line to the Biden administration. Let's get a deal done, but there's not really a different path forward to doing that, if you will.

This is interesting to me, Rick. I wonder your thoughts as we hear from a former staffer to two members of the squad, Rashida Taleb and Corey Bush. This a boss all the way, writing, Harris conveyed more sympathy for the plight of civilians in Gaza than President Biden did at any point. Boss is the person who led the uncommitted movement in Michigan. Rick Kamala Harris really isn't saying much different from Joe Biden in this case issue.

This is interesting to me, Rick. I wonder your thoughts as we hear from a former staffer to two members of the squad, Rashida Taleb and Corey Bush. This a boss all the way, writing, Harris conveyed more sympathy for the plight of civilians in Gaza than President Biden did at any point. Boss is the person who led the uncommitted movement in Michigan. Rick Kamala Harris really isn't saying much different from Joe Biden in this case issue.

Now, this is just situational politics. They needed a scalp because they had been losing within their own caucus, the Democrats on this issue. The far left, you know, disagreed with the vast majority of Democrats, so they had to be mad at Biden. Biden was just as empathetic for the plight of civilians and Palestinians as anybody else in the party was going to be. But that wasn't going to be good enough for the left flank of his party, and so they took it out on him, and it created a weakness at a time when he was trying to consolidate the party. So they did some pretty good damage to Joe Biden at the time. Now you know he's gone along the King Kamala Harris has done a much better job than anybody expected her to consolidate the Democratic Party in less than a week, and they are attributing the exact same statement she's making that Biden made to being a new look and frankly, an amazing opportunity for her to seem like she's different than Joe Biden, which is a positive politically, without actually taking any risk to do it.