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Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from Bloomberg Radio.
You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm David Gerro with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news this afternoon. President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid, Biden saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee.
Joining us now Bloomberg contributor Genie sheen Zano of Iona University. Genie, with this announcement, are the Purple States any less purple?
I think they.
Are more up for grabs for the Democrats.
I think one of the big deciding factors we are hearing for President Biden was the fact that you saw states that should be reliably blue or somewhat rely on blee blue leg Minnesota, New Hampshire, You're talking about my home state of New York, New Jersey, that those were creeping into the red or as you said, the purple. And that is a big problem. And I think that's where he saw the writing on the wall. If Donald Trump expanded that battleground very very difficult for Joe Biden to win, hence his decision today.
David Gern, Joe Matthew jump in here with Professor z Enough.
Let me just ask you sort of what you see playing out here in the next twenty four hours. So, as I say, we had this very quick endorsement from the president, as Joe and Tom were talking about just a few minutes ago. The impulse here is to be to get the vice president on the road. She has been on the road, has been holding events and rallies. How do you see this week beginning? How do you see a gaining steam as it continues?
Yeah, I mean Kamala Harris two million dollars in Cape Cod yesterday. I think the thinking among many Democrats can't speak for all of them, is that this is a quick handover. We saw the endorsement. It is a Joe Biden. Kamala has campaign so that she is able to take over the campaign, the apparatus, the fundraising, which is tremendous and move forward. I think the big question hanging over everybody's head is is there going to be a contest? I am skeptical that we will see a contest at this point, particularly given how quickly President Biden endorsed her, but it is still a possibility. The other thing is, and the lawyers know this better than I do, is that there may be some contest in terms of can she take over this campaign apparatus. I'm describing it as a Biden Harris campaign. It is, but there may be legal challenges to that. If there's not, she'll take that over, and then I think it's harder for us to see a contest. And then the big question is going to be what do the delegates do, of course, and who does she choose as her vice presidential running mate?
At this point, Ge, now I want to go to your wheelhouse, which is the shades of the Democratic Party in nineteen fifty two. You know what, there were shades of a Democratic Party. They were all the same. The difference from Stevenson the SSE's key fower, come on, it was next to nothing. It was just geographic. It was regional. Somebody had a pet project in that. We have huge polarity in the Democratic Party right now. Is the vice president a progressive?
I am not sure that she will choose in that way. You know, the reality is as a political scientist that vice presidential choices in all of our research seldom make any difference whatsoever. That said, this is an astounding situation, unprecedented in the modern era, so it likely could. And I think for Kamala Harris as she thinks about her choices, you know, we are hearing about the tremendous number of really attractive young Democratic governors across the country, from Shapiro to Indy Bashir to down in North Carolina to J. D. Pritzker in Illinois. It's a large, large number. I'm excluding Newsome only because he has the same problem Marco Rubio did for Trump in her home state. But that said, there's also been a lot of talk about somebody like Senator Kelly out in Arizona. If I had to guess, I think she is going to choose a geographic match rather and somebody who she personally can work with, obviously, and who she thinks could be president if something should happen to her, as opposed to think about the ideological split in the Democratic Party. And the only reason I say that is because you're right, there is that difference in the party, but one thing that unites all Democrats, right now is beating Donald Trump. That's at the forefront of all of their minds. Okay, and that's why I think she doesn't go progressive.
Beautifully, said David Gerra. Terry Ames has said this and many others. Well, we're desperate for polls like we've never been in our modern political history, Bason. Your experience, David Gurra, when does our Audi medians get polls that begin to color the strength that the vice president has or the strength other candidates have.
It'll be some days until we get enough of them that we can have some confidence in them. But we know from our reporting and from others reporting that the Democratic Party was polling the viability of Kamala Harris as a presidential nominee in the days leading up to this. We know that in this vacuum that the president was in trying to figure this out, this was one of his concerns and the party's concerns how this would work. And so we have had some polling thus far that illustrates what that matchup might be like with Donald Trump, and we've seen her hold her own in those polls. But to answer your question more thoroughly, Tom, I think until we get a more robust set of pulling on this is going to take a few days until we figure that out. And I'm just going to note here the kind of endorsements and comments on this continue to roll, and we have a comment now from President Clinton former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. They're issuing a joint statement here about Kamala Harris. It begins with a preamble of them thanking Joe Biden for the service that he's had to the country in this role, most recently but throughout his long career. Then they say, we are honor to join the president in endorsing Vice President Harris, and we'll do whatever we can to support her. GENI, I'm curious how well Americans know Kamala Harris. You mentioned how insignificant the role of the vice president might be historically, how little a difference that might make. But she has name recognition and that's something here. But how much do most people know about her? And her record is Attorney general in California and indeeds are of what makes her tick? What are the policy agenda items that are most important to her?
You know?
I think on the plus side, Kamala Harris has really done a very strong job of going out and talking about women's health, pushing back on the Dobbs decision. They're right for people. I shouldn't just say women to do what they want with their own bodies, and that has been something I think many Americans now associate with her. That said, to your point, While she did run in twenty twenty, she was a you know, one term senator from California, previously a state attorney general, so well known in that state. Not quite as much across the country, though, as the first African American woman and Indian American woman to achieve the vice presidency, she did get a lot of coverage in the announcement of her choice. On the downside, she was flagged with the border issue for a long time and that has really drawn down people's concerns about her ability to do this job. So there's some mixed reaction, but she is going to have to go out and sort of come out from Joe Biden's shadow, if you will. One thing I would note, and I think to her credit, throughout all of these last three weeks, she has been on the campaign trail pushing hard for Joe Biden, and her people were very clear she is not going to get involved in this race to see who should feed him, and so that is on the plus side for her.
I look at where we are and folks who want to draw in here not only the expected statements by worthies, by Democrats, by Republicans, but across all and take advantage of the social media at this historic moment. Tim albert is at the Atlantic and he's really done studies, careful studies of evangelical America, just among other things. And Geenie, here's where Tim Alberta comes out really right now. Really cannot overstate how problematic this is for Trump's operation. Why is that what radically change changes for the campaign apparatus of the former president on this Sunday afternoon.
And Tim who just wrote a beautiful piece on Trump's two campaign managers, and that's what I think he is alluding to. It was very clear and that really well done piece about Chris Lasavitas and Susie Wilds that their entire campaign wh was shaped by going against Joe Biden to have this switch at the last minute after their convention, which is the most coverage argued, we will believe Donald Trump is going to get until if there is another debate with a new candidate, they have to shift their entire focus. So the uncertainty we're talking about for the Democrats is also true on the Republican side. And that's what I think he's pouting to. They've got to quickly shift their focus now to Carris or somebody else, because she is not the nominee.
Jenny, thank you so much. Through the afternoon, Genie, Professor Zana will be with us. She's at Iona University, Jennie, She and Zano. A number of others are looking at this, and one of them is the difference between Ger and I were lazy. You know, we do things, We do the big take, we do podcasts, we stroll in, we go to lunch. Laura Davidson never goes to lunch. She is the journalist in Washington covering these tensions, and we're thrilled that she could join us. Now, Laura, I want you to look forward. There are editors across all of our major newspapers, all of our magazines saying I need something Tuesday or wind Day morning. What is the distinction, Laura Davidson, that you would write about for Tuesday or Wednesday morning?
So the next steps are not clear.
Biden has endorsed Harris, and presumably that means many of his delegates will back Harris. But the big unknown is will someone else jump into the race. Democratic rules don't Party rules don't require that Biden's delegates back Harris. So, you know, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan governed Gretchen Whitmer, they want to jump in the race. Suddenly, we could have a contested convention on our hands. There's a couple, you know, things that are that are totally uncertain here. You know, the biggest question is just, you know, where do those camps start to fall in line. We're already seeing a lot of lawmakers come out and endorsing Kamala Harris.
She also has an advantage because she can inherit the money and the Biden campaign. A new candidate would not be able to inherit that money. It would have to start from scratch.
The other thing that's also on everyone's mind too, is from a from a global perspective, you know, what does this mean for foreign leaders and particularly for adversaries. You know, is there some some sort of new, fresh national security threat that could be injected into the atmosphere, you know, with sort of this period of uncertainty around who might be in charge of the Democratic Party going.
Forward, Laura, what is the way that we've seen Kamala Harris being used over these last couple of weeks tell you about the path forward? She has been out campaigning. Obviously, she's been rather quiet on this issue, but she held a very important call with donors on Friday of this week, trying to assuage many of their concerns about the prospects of this happening as Joe Biden was figuring all of this out. Any insight that you can glean just from the way that she has been acting or the Democratic Party in the campaign have been using her in recent days that might foretell what she's going to be like, how she's going to approach the campaign going forward.
You know.
In addition to that call of donors, we've also seen her just more front and center in advertising and you know, fundraising appeals that have gone out.
Via email on social ads.
She's also been hitting the campaign trail very hard, so you can kind of see there was a you know, a very quiet ramp up, you know, in case this, you know, was the situation that we now find ourselves in. What's different about her is she has been very different on the campaign trail than Biden. Biden has really focused on those blue wall states Michigan and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
She has more focused on some of the southern.
States, you know, Arizona, Nevada, and the messages that they carry are very different. Biden was focused on, you know, the economy and jobs on reunion workers. Harris has been much more about abortion, that being an issue that she's very comfortable talking with and that Biden isn't.
So there will be sort of a reformulation of you.
Know how uh, you know, of how Harris tries to position herself if she is in fact the nominee and of course, you know, if you know all of the people who might want to be her running mate, you know that's going to be something that party leaders and in you delegates are going to be looking at what balances her out.
You know, do you go to someone like Josh Shapiro as.
A governor of Pennsylvania, they might appeal to to more of those blue wall states.
All of this, you know, parlor parlor talks.
You know, what's happened now and what's happening on the old.
Lord Davison, Thank you so much for being saustine as I hope you wake you up tomorrow morning at seven am.
You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm David Gurrow with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Plenty ahead, This is Bloombak.
Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from Bloomberg Radio.
You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm David Gerrow with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid, Biden saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee.
What we're looking for is conversation with people with experience and maybe without an angle. And that is absolute definition of Wendy Benjamin to say she's deputy Managing editor, it's a big long title. She wouldn't come to Bloomberg unless it was a big long title. But she was definitive at the Associated Press with McClatchy and USA Today is well, it's a new media today. You lived the old media. LBJ didn't have to put up with this. Truman didn't have to put up with this. Let's look forward. How do these people position themselves given modern media?
Well, hi Tom, and thank you for always bringing up how long.
I've been in.
Trying to do it.
It's all about the history today, But I will tell you it is. It is a tricky rott, a hope for the other Democrats who might who might join the race this Today they are all over ex posting how grateful they are to the president, without a single word about themselves. I think they are all eagerly watching the process of what will happen next, whether Kamala Harris does become the nominee by fate or by or there will be this open process to to choose another nominee, at which point these people will definitely start changing their posts on Twitter to be more forward looking. But today is sort of one of those days where you just focus on Biden and whether he did, and don't worry about your ambitions for at least publicly for a few.
Minutes, Wendy Benjamins, and we'll marinate in that for you know, twenty four hours, whatever minutes.
So she when she first came to Washington, she was in the octagon bar Willard. Yes, it was the same thing. Everything was, you know, we'll think about for a day or two, but it was a few minutes. Wendy.
Nice to speak with you. And I'm curious sort of how long it takes for the contours of this campaign to change. I was talking with some senior Democrats who said their major frustration has been Donald Trump has been out campaigning. He's been lying as they saw it, He's been lying as we've we've reported. They need a Democrat who can push back on that and debate him formally in the context of the campaign. They hope on a debate stage as well. I'm sure that they see Kamala Harris is somebody very capable of doing that. How long until we see the contours and the sort of flavor and character of this campaign start to change. I guess what I'm asking is how long are we going to merit it on this the praise for Joe Biden before we move on to what is a reset of this Democratic campaign?
Seriously, David, I would start an egg timer right now. I think, you know, as we all come back to our desk in the office tomorrow, this will already start changing. There is no time left. There is no time to you know, spend a lot of time thinking about how great if you believe that that Joe Biden was, and how to move forward. There is only time to get this done. The Democratic Convention is in less than a month and they have to have a nominee. They also were going to virtually nominate Joe Biden's When I say virtually mean by phone because the ballot access laws, the ballots will be printed in Ohio before the Democratic Convention. Ohio a major state that you you know, a lot of electoral votes that you have to be on the ballot for. So I think there will be tomorrow morning. I mean Jamie Harris and the d n C chair has already put out a safe in saying we're going to start the process now figuring out how to do this. Remember this is unprecedented, LBJ who I was a child when.
He did you hear that?
Tom Yes, Remember he dropped out in March.
There was still plenty of time to, you know, to have primaries with other candidates. I think Iowa and New Hampshire were the only states who had voted by them. So you know, this is we're just not in that situation. We have to have to get to work right away.
I want to go to the heart of the matter, to the both you and this is something I've quoted, but I rarely put up the numbers. I'm not going to give you the digits. It's just too much to contemplate right now. President Trump garnered seventy four million votes the last time around the time before that, when he won, he garnered sixty five million votes. Basically, he garnered eight million votes losing in twenty twenty. David, let me go to you first in Pennsylvania. Who has to show up now for the Democratic nominee who was not going to show up on Saturday for President Biden.
Well, Pennsylvania's a particularly interesting question. I mean, they need everybody to show up, obviously, and you're going to hear that in the coming days and weeks. But you know, they're going to be appealing to people who might have felt disillusioned by the way all of this was unfolding, might have felt like, you know, looking at a contrast there that we saw in the debate station Atlanta was dispeariting them. Made them feel like the Democrats didn't have a viable alternative to Republican nominee. We're going to see a big ground game trying to get everybody to the polls. Tom, But you know it's funny. We'll talk to Joe Matthew in a few moments. Here is somebody that he mentioned on the heels of that Republican National Convention is Roy Cooper, the gup of my home state of North Carolinas, somebody who's seen as maybe somebody who might be in the fold here as well. Picking up on what you're saying what Wendy said as well, I think geography matters a ton of here, And Wendy, I'd love for you to come in and just give me your read on that. There's Pennsylvania, there's North Carolina. What are the other estates or geographies in this country that are going to be of just paramount importance here to Democrats going forward.
Well, the first one that leads to mind, David is Michigan, where Gretchen Whitmer, a very popular Democrat, is governor, two term governor, very popular. There's no question she is going to run for president someday. I don't think and so I think, you know, if they're looking for alternatives beyond Kamala, Harris and Gretchen Whitmer becomes a big deal. So is Joshapiro in Pennsylvania. You know North Carolina. Yeah, North Carolina is one of those states that kind of goes back and forth. It tends to be conservative. I don't know how it might be good to bring in Hammer and Andy Basheer of Kentucky or someone like that too.
Wendy, I had a crossow thrown at me my head this morning at breakfast, and I'm going to bring it up with you because with no with great respect, Wendy, you're the one to answer this question. Now. You just mentioned Harris Whitmer is a potential ticket. Is there any evidence across the United States of America day today that we can elect Anglo Miracle or Teresa May of the United Kingdom? Is there any real evidence America is ready to elect a woman?
That's you know, I'm sighing because that's a very difficult question. There's certainly no practical reason we shouldn't see we're one of the last major countries on Earth not to have a female head of state. You know, I certainly think it's time for that. And I can't think of a reason why we wouldn't elect a woman. Maybe a double female ticket might be a little much for America. Crazy as that said, since we've elected so many double mail tickets in our history. But you know, but I do think if the Democrats all right, Mark, it would be more like a Harris Super Harris Asher, Harris Shapiro.
Wanty Benjaminson not I have thrown a virtual croissant at you from DC, but she did.
She said, that's what my expense account has is virtual croissants. What I am in Washington, d C. Saying it will be a long night for your leading our coverage in Washington. Wendy Benjamin, she is the queen of print. Thank you so much, Wendy for joining us today. We welcome all of you across Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Radio on YouTube. We're making light of it on a Sunday afternoon, but it is the most serious point for the nation. It is a democratic party, without question, in chaos, the transition from an eighty one year old president, he endorses his vice president. David's going to cover that in a moment, and some of the news flow here we welcome all to you, David Gerra and Tom Keen in Washington. Joe you to partake here in a moment, and Kaylen Lines is getting ready again for the television broadcast this evening. We hope to have her on as our schedule allows. Many other good people with conversation is well. Thank you for the comments out on Twitter, on YouTube and live chat as well. David Gera, it was a two step process. The shock, which I did not expect on a Sunday afternoon. I kept waiting for an LBJ Oval Office moment didn't happen, and then the endorsement of the Vice president.
Yeah, it was a very funny interregnum. So let's start with the announcement itself. As you say, you know, I was waiting over the course of the weekend for that announcement to come out from the White House. You know, perhaps there'll be an Oval office speech. As you say, I think. I think we might still get that later this week. In his letter to the American people, the President saying that in the coming days he'll say more about his decision to do this. I think yet we will get that kind of formal moment for him to spell all of this out the way that he wants to. But reading that letter one page in length, just a few paragraphs, there was no mention of Kamala Harra Joe Biden's vice president. Then a few minutes past, a few more minutes passed and we got his full throat endorsement yes via X of Kamala Harris. He's going to support her in the campaign for president. Now we're beginning to piece together a how many Democrats come on board with that. It seems like in the last hour and a half or so many of them have Many prominent Democrats, gray beards, younger members of Congress, those who have been rather quiet during the course of this as they've waited for this to get hammered out by the President who has been at his home in Rohobe with be Beach, Delaware, kind of figuring all of this out. Thinking through all of this, we've heard from them. We'll see how much more that coalesces. And then we'll see, as we've been talking about, what other interests there may or may not be from other people in the Democratic Party to run, and then who Kamala Harris, if she is the nomine would pick for her vice presidential running mate.
And now folks, we will digress, and again we welcome all of you to the shock of this news. The path forward for the nation, the path forward for the Democratic Party, and the pathword only Joe Matthew knows how big a piggy ban President Biden has. We're still working on, Joe. I see, Oh, let me go to you on this aid. Yeah.
No, it is a sizeable pigure. It's over one hundred, over two hundred and fifty two hundred forty million dollars, so a little bit behind Donald Trump, but many, many millions of dollars. And as we heard from Lord Davison just a moment ago, Kamala Harris has been on the campaign trill during this uncomfortable period, raising a lot of money. She's on Cape cod presently where she raised two million dollars at this most recent fundraiser. So they have been out there beating the bushes, trying to get money from donors. And as I say that, I have to acknowledge the fact that as all of this unfolded, there was concern among rank and file Democrats. There was, as we saw, concern among members of the House, forty plus of them coming out suggesting that Joe Biden should do this members of the Senate as well, but also from donors. You know, what we've heard is that the chief fundraisers for the bind reelection campaign have been fielding all kinds of questions from their donors. Jeffre Katzenberg chief among them. He the main fundraiser. This was something that they were agitating or having to deal with as well.
For mere mortals. David, you're used to this, Joe Matthews used to this as well. For me. The idea of you know, X millions of dollars, it's sitting in a bank, They're going to spend it evenly and rapidly, ads and all the rest of the apparatus, and that the vice president can pick up that slug of money. Correct she can?
They are adamant that she can.
And what can Governor Shapiro Pennsylvania do. Sell a bottle of yengling and try to get through What's he do?
They would have to sell many trucks of yongling to catch up. But this has been what those who have supported Kamala Harris being the nominee have said all along is this is the Biden Harris campaign. Her name is on the ticket. She's helped raise this fire. She could get that money and others couldn't, and that has been one of the principal reasons why they've said in this period when there's been a lot of haggling, she's the clear choice because she has access to it. Look, you know, well, Tom, these campaigns are expensive campaigns cost many millions of dollars. To not have that and to start with what you know, many weeks to go into the election would be incredibly dis.
Is it August tenth of Chicago, Pittsburgh?
That might be Jackson Hole, but it's a busy I can't keep track of it. You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm David Gurrow with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew.
Plenty ahead, This is Bloomberg.
Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from Bloomberg Radio.
You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm David Gerrow with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his re election bid, Biden saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee.
We're here at this very historic moment for the country, and we welcome all of you, and we really appreciate our guests for the effort that they've made. This guest has said the single most important thing I've heard from that horrific debate for President Biden, Terry Haynes appee has said, Tom, all that matters are the polls. Mister Haynes joins us. Now. I can't say enough about following him on LinkedIn for intelligent summaries. Whatever your political persuasion, Terry Haynes, do you have polls? And when do you and the vice president get them?
Just you know, there's a bunch of folks pinging me and pelting me right now saying you realize, of course Harris polls worse than Biden. There's some evidence to that effect. There's also some evidence that they pull better. My advice all along has been, you know, ignore the ignore the green eye shade stuff. You're you're you know, you're now from from Washington political technicians who love talking about this stuff and how you can dial it up or dial it down, Harris is going to be in uncharted waters if indeed it is Harris, and I imagine that the energy that comes from this campaign and Democrats rallying around her, you know, really give Democrats a big shot in the arm here and on poles. Last thing I would say is the two way national average two day before Biden dropped out was Trump up by three, with a bunch of polls that have margins of error that are bigger than that. So you know, Harris is not far off the scent here. And my immediate prediction is she probably gets a little stronger.
Talk about that strength if you would, Terry, It's great to speak with you as always, And I've had a lot of people say to me, look, Kamala Harris hasn't been able to campaign as much as she might like to, might not have as big a policy portfolio as she wants to, in part because of the relationship that she has with the president, in part because they don't want her to be outfront. They want to be out front. So that wall drops she's able to get out there. What are we likely to see from her? I mean, I've watched her at some events recently. She is a powerful speaker, she's able, she's very facile with everything that's in her portfolio and more, what do you expect her on the campaign trail to look like?
Now?
My advice all along has been I wrote a piece about this back in February at one point, I believe it or not, about how you know you basically underestimate Harris at your peril. It's very fashionable in Washington to walk around and say, well, you know, she doesn't speak so well. And there's plenty of examples of that, and you'll still now see them all in campaign advertisements in the next four months. But you know where she's really strong. She's really strong, and it's a and it dovetails very nicely into the Democratic message, which is on all on all the social issues that are the core of the core of the Democratic message. And I would expect her to hammer away at that. And that is a powerful message not only to Democratic base, but it's an enticing message to a lot of independent voters as well. One thing that the Democrats have to do in order to win is to keep but excuse me, keep Trump underwater within the endants and Harris. Harris being a hugely forceful advocate on social issues of all kinds. And you know, it is something I think you'll just you'll see them be relentless.
At I once flunk to test Terry Haynes on vice presidential history. I couldn't name any of them. And there's this heritage back to eighteen oh two or whatever that they're just vice presidents and they'll be Okay, to the point you made with David Gerrow moments ago, do we really know who the prosecutor from California is?
No?
I don't think we do.
Yeah, I agree, she thinks she's.
Had very much a meteoric rise, and but you know, you haven't seen her out there on her own, really shining. And she's never been in a contested election before really other than her first one where she barely won. But you know, California being the you know, among the bluest of blue states, this is a very different this is a very different arena.
It's a it's a very different arena. And you know, if I could, I'd love for you to take a step at the question that Tom asked me so I can answer with some authority the next time he asked me, but who is she? Who is she looking for? We know what the process is going to be like. She's going to meet with all of these folks whose names we've seen floated in recent days. See who she gets along with, Who might bring what to the ticket? What's yours? If you had to game that out, if if you had to look at the pluses and minuses of what each offers. Who does she need to pick? What type of running mate does she need to pick?
She needs a centrist swing state governor? Would be my is my instinct.
So you're in Philadelphia. I think they've won sixty games so far this year. The Phillies are just killing the Terry Haynes, you're in Philadelphia.
My Pittsburgh Pirates to beat them Friday night and Saturday night, so.
They're in their surveillance correction here on Sunday.
And their stadium is far their ball field is far more elegant than in Philadelphia. In Philadelphia, Terry Hayes, you got to go out in the suburbs and I get that there's an issue that's demonstrably proven, abortion and changes votes. What's the next issue after that? For a nominee such as Mazaris.
I think what you have to do is you you really have to goose the uh you really have to goose the urban votes. So it's going to be uh, civil rights issues attacked from the Supreme Court. Uh, you know, all those sorts of things.
Uh.
And and you and you have to be you have to be nuanced. You have to be firm but nuanced on on immigration because uh, in order to attract Hispanic voters back. Uh, you know, there's uh, you know, we're we're not that far away from uh, you know, the old style machine politics. But there will still be efforts to to goose that turnout. But what gets people going uh will be uh, you know, will be abortion, will be social programs, will be kind of the traditional democratic uh uh programs combined with the strong thought that what Trump and the Republicans want to do is get rid of all that stuff.
Let me ask you about how Democrats capitalize on the timing of this. And I mean I could look back and I could say, look, if this had happened during the course of the RNC, just think about what that final night would have been like with Donald Trump speaking, if Joe Biden had issued this letter, now that he didn't do this Vietnaval Office address, he could have sent this letter out on Thursday.
Wow, that would have.
Upended all of the coverage that this had gotten, that speech had gotten. All right, we're moving past that. We get this letter on a Sunday. How do Democrats seize the spotlight and the narrative going forward? Here you have the former president weighing in that, you know, suggesting that Joe Biden should just step aside from his position entirely. Now, what did Democrats need to do to reclaim the narrative?
Well, firstly, they need to call lesser on Harris. And I'm not sure the extent. I mean, this obviously just happened, but I'm not sure of the degree that they that they want to. I thought Biden's I thought Biden initially not endorsing her, and then ten minutes later somebody pointing out to him that, you know, you need to go endorse her. Uh said volumes about the disarray not only in Biden world but among Democrats. Now that said, if I was Harris, I'd be I'd be out there this afternoon acting like I was the nominee and uh, you know, and I'd be going down to uh, you know, the Biden campaign head quarters kicking some rear ends too, But the sooner that she acts as as the presumptive nominee, the better for her.
First this is critical. Terry unfortunately got one minute left. How will we how WI How will she be greeted by loyal Biden operatives.
She'll be greeted with publicly with rapture and privately hugs and kisses. But privately they'll feel like, I mean, she wasn't part of the part of the coup, but they'll they'll feel abashed that their their their guy isn't there anymore.
I got to leave it there. I look forward to your LinkedIn summaries that you do there just really really exquisite. Terry Haynes with Pangaea, a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance, and we say good morning and good afternoon to all of you. Good morning of course in Asia, waking up very early in the morning to the news that the President of the United States will step aside and he will not seek a second term. And of course the operative idea here is it is late in the cycle. He endorses the vice president from California, Kamala Harris, David Gerr and Tom Keane with you in New York will have any number of guests in this hour stay with our special broadcast from five to seven that will be on Bloomberg Television. We welcome all of you on television on radio across this nation as well. David, we have an esteem guest to bring. And now she survived Milwaukee, she's getting ready for Chicago. She's two I think it was two weeks in Crete. As she got ready for Chicago, ripped up that trip. Why don't you bring in Kaylee Lines with her observision.
Of course, the co host of Balance of Power here on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television. As you say, she was at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee and did one of the craziest teleportations I've seen in my life, Shinjo getting back to Washington for a full day of coverage on Friday. As we all were kind of watching to see how this would play out, Katie Lines, let me ask you, first of all, sort of what you're watching for here as you look at these reactions come in from Democrats, senior democrats, junior democrats. What those statements and aggregate are telling you about the direction of all of this.
Well, I think what's more telling at this point, David, is that the people who have not yet in a statement given a direct endorsement of Kamala Harris, including most of the senior leadership of Democrats in Congress, the House Democratic Leader Hackeing Jeffreys, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, have not explicitly endorsed her, as Joe Biden did about ten minutes after initially putting out the statement that he wasn't running for reelection. So those will be some key figures to watch, as well as those that we'd understood had been in conversation as to whether or not they could potentially be the Democratic nominee themselves. Think about the governor's Davie pritzkerve Illinois, Gavin Newsom of California, even the likes of Joshapiro and Pennsylvania Gretcher Whittmer in Michigan. We haven't really heard from them saying anything other than Kaylee service as president.
What are they going to say, Mister Pritzker is in Illinois with a massive population loss, Chicago's flat on its back, forget about the convention and all that. What is going to be their response one day from now? Five days from now, ten days from now to a vice president with what, David a quarter of a billion dollars? What are they what are they going to say?
Kaylee lines, Well, that's a very good point. The money is a huge factor here. Because Harris had been part of the Biden Harris campaign. She has access to that war chest with hundreds of millions of dollars in it, more easily than any other candidate would. Of course, if we're thinking about JB. Pritzker, who has his own personal fortune that held theoretically could tap to help sellth fund, that's a separate conversation. But really it's going to be about what happens in the coming days. Is we are not working with a great deal of time here at the convention. If four weeks from tomorrow, it starts on August nineteenth, so that is not a lot of time to get together support for a bid to go against Harris in an open convention if one wanted to. Of course, we're going to be watching very carefully for polling in the next few weeks to see how a Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket pulls against a Trump advance ticket. Since we know that jd Vance is Donald Trump's election to be the vice presidential nominee, and that polling could dictate the feeling moving forward toward the convention as to whether or not someone else needs to try to contest this and step in if Kamala Harris is not felt to be the strongest candidate to defeat Trump in November.
Kaylee delicate question one of the Cardinal.
Rules and a democratic prim Republicans are going.
To a legal challenge to a president. On Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio worldwide from her studios in Washington in New York, Joe Matthew, David Gurra, and Tom King with this special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. Joe Matthew and Katie.
Lyons, You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm David Ura with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew.
At this.
Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. From Bloomberg Radio.
You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm David Gerro with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid Biden, saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee.
The great Nathan Dean. I'm just delighted to hear that we have a dad with us, as we call him in Washington here, because Nathan is in touch with the clients, the people who use the terminal, the people who will trade on this information. And before we bring in Nathan, I want to tell you guys that we have heard from the nominee in waiting. We just heard from Kamala Harris in a written statement here that is full of gratitude for several paragraphs, and goes on to write, I am honored to have the President's endorsement, and my intention is to earn and win this nomination, win the word that she chooses. Over the past year, I have traveled across the country talking with Americans about the clear choice in this momentous election, and that is what I will continue to do in the days and weeks ahead. She talks about Tom and David uniting the party to defeat Donald Trump and his extreme Project twenty twenty five agenda, referring to one hundred seven days until election day. Together, she writes, we will fight, we will win. This sounds like something that is written by someone in the throes of a primary contest or potentially throwing their hat into the ring, not a sitting vice president on a remarkable day. Here, Nathan Dean, thank you for joining us. I wonder who you're hearing from today already and how this might move markets tomorrow.
Well, you know that we actually put out a series of notes on Friday just on the chance. Look, and nobody knew this was going to happen, But a lot of the notes that we put out really had two focuses. Now, the first focus is the macro level. And really this election, in our view, comes down to two things, tariffs and taxes. And obviously, when tariffs with Kamala Harris, you get a very similar policy than you do to President Biden, which is drastically different than that of President Trump. You know, President Trump has called for sixty percent tariffs on item imports from China. We anticipated Kamala Harris presidency if she were to be elected, to be very similar to more targeted sector tariffs. Then you have the tax argument. Now, the tax argument is going to be a third quarter of twenty twenty five argument because the tax of the individual tax cuts for the Trump the individual tax cuts as part of the Trump tax cuts expired at the end of twenty twenty five, and we see a lot of information about terms of assistance for lower cut consumers, lower income consumers, a lot of relief for the just you know, general, lower to middle income class, and would anticipate a you know, call for a higher tax rate on individuals that are making more than four hundred thousand dollars. It's very similar to what President Biden put out. But then you also have the sector specific impacts and really what our message to clients is, it's a lot of the regulatory status quo, because you know, whether it's banks, evs, TMT and so forth like bet. We anticipate that she'd be very focused on consumer financial regulation. We anticipate that she'd probably have a continuation in terms of m and A strategy and anti big tech scrutiny like you see over at the Federal Trade Commissioner to Lena Cohn. And that's a very important point here is that if Kamala Harris were to win the presidency, I think the regulatory leadership of the Biden era regulators. You know, most of them would probably stick around for the first year of her presidency. So I think it's just a lot of status quo and very different contrasts that you would see in her a Trump presidency.
Interesting, So I guess we're not going to be talking about the Kamala trade, Nathan. I've not only heard about the Trump trade for the last two weeks, but even the JD trade last week. And it's funny you're talking about Lena Kahan.
Does J. D.
Vance have more in common with Kamala Harris or Donald Trump when it comes to the economy and financial regulations?
So, you know, it's interesting. You know, I just first state, you know, this is the vice president policy and it really depends on you know, in JD. Vance's case, if President Trump were to defer to Senator Vance in terms of you go forth and run with these policies. But if he were, Senator Vance is very much aligned with Lena Khan. In fact, there was an event at the Bloomberg DC office not long ago where he said President Lina Khan was President Biden's best pick, and he even situated last week. I don't think he would do it. That he would, you know, pushed for Lena Khan to keep her position. But that's the new reality with the Republican Party of this idea of economic populism. It's not the very old Republican Party where you can just say at a high level, Republicans equal good for a big business. It's just not the case anymore. So, you know, what we often also have to say to our clients though, is just remember a lot of this is headline risk right now. I'm not saying it's not going to turn into things come to the election time, but you will see statements from President Trump, President Biden, Senator Vance, Vice President Kamala Harris, and when they become president or vice president or are elected, then the question is, how are you going to get your plan through Congress? It's almost like the Hamilton musical again, how are you going to get your plan through? And things begin to actually dial down, you know, if they start and say I want to do a number ten on this issue, by the time they get to Congress in maybe a six or a five. So you know, just always keep in mind in terms of you know, timing and so forth for the clients that we're talking to. It's really the tariff argument first, taxes second, and then the sector arguments for each individual policies and legislation's third.
Nathan, bearing in mind this is uncharted territory, I wonder what these next few months like through leading to the election. I think it's safe to say there hasn't been a whole lot of business getting done in Washington already. But how does this slow this down? You look as well at the comments that we're getting from Republicans about whether Joe Biden should step aside. Let's set that aside ourselves and just note here we have a lame duck president. History can tell us a lot about somebody in that position from a policymaking perspective, from a political perspective, what are these next few months look like given what's changed today in Washington.
Well, look, Joe Biden is a lame duck starting to morning, if not this evening. So that's really there's two other avenues that we need to talk about. Versus the regulatory stuff. You will probably see President Biden PUSH's regulators to finalize their agenda as soon as possible. Now, this is going to probably come after the Congressional Review Act date. I'll spare the audience, but all just you need to know is is that any regulation that's essentially finalized from now until the end of the year could be overturned if the Republicans win a House, the Senate, and the presidency. But I would also intenicipate President Biden to look internationally. So this is something that we've seen lame duck presidents. Do you know President Obama did this in the last two years of his term. President George W. Bush did this in the last two years of the term. Because when Capitol Hill looks at the White House and says, look, I'm not going to stick my neck out for you because you're not going to be here in six months, you lose a lot of political capital. So the presidencies often look internationally. So if President Biden has the situation, I look, I know we're only three and a half year, three and a half months till the election, approximately six and a half months until we have a new president. But I wouldn't be surprised if President Biden were to, you know, take the Air Force one, if you will fly abroad and spend a little bit more time over there, just because the power of the presidency is a little bit more powerful when it comes to international relations.
Nathan, do you have a good handle on what Kamala Harris's policy preferences are? We were talking about trade, talking about immigration. Obviously this was a big part of her remit. But we're learning day by day more about the junior senator from Ohio. The degree to which he's kind of an enigma in the Republican Party. That was certainly in stark relief during the course of that convention. The way that things that he supports and espouses are very separate and different from what we saw in Republicans a long time ago. How much of Kamala Harris's policy biography is discreet, is different from the man with whom she's serving. How much do we know about that at this point?
So it's actually fairly light. I mean, all we're going off of. We actually had an hour long call on about this on Friday amongst the team going through all this, and it's fairly light. You know, we have to go back to our time. As Attorney General of California, she participated in a twenty five billion dollar settlement against the big banks like Bank of America, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo on foreclosure practices. Now that was something that forty seven other states and the District of Columbia went through. But as her time of the Attorney General, she really made a significant push on this idea of consumer protection, especially when it comes to big business and this idea of consumer protection. So we certainly think that if she were to move forward and become the president, you could see a push on things like offering student debt relief. Look, you know, I'm not saying it's the other courts are going to allow it, but certainly the president can do that and say let's continuing with this type of relief. But then as senator, you know from California, then you become one of one hundred and it's a little bit more difficult. But what I would say is is that overall, you know, when President Biden came into office, we viewed him as a centrist president, and we think that he moved closer to Kamala Harris's policies than Kamala Harris did moving to his policies. So I think the President Biden policies that you have of today are going to be very indicative of Kamala Harris if she were to win.
Nathan, thank you so much. Nathan Dean in Washington this morning again reaction the world to a president who steps aside. One headline that I saw, I believe that was the Washington Post, our special covers Joe Matthew and Washington David Gerr in New York, Tom Keene's special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Joe Matthew stealed for a five PM Balance of Power, which we hope to see as well. Joe, you were weaned on Massachusetts politics and one of the great things of Massachusetts politics is there were Republicans and Democrats in the middle. From where you sit, Joe Matthew, is anybody out there on this Sunday afternoon, this Sunday edge of evening, is anybody in the middle? Boy?
Well, if you mean in the middle between Kamala Harris and somebody else, I think that might be a question in the middle politically, I don't know. Do you think Seth Moulton, who was one of the first I think number three Democrat in Congress north Shore of Massachusetts Salem who actually called on Joe Biden to step down and called for a new generation. Yeah, remembering he was blackballed by many in the Democratic Party when he tried to run against Nancy Pelosi. But Middle I don't think is going to get you through a primary cycle here, which this feels like a lot, although I will point out this is pretty important. Gretchen Whitmer and now the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, say they will not challenge Kamala Harris.
This is going to come. So it's moving in real time. I root for all of you nationwide. David is doing a much better job. Joe lives stuff. I mean, we're not like Joe, but David, it's moving in real time by this effect.
And I'd love to get Joe's perspective on this. I mean, Tom asked me, Joe sort of what stood out to me about the way that this has been playing out, and I said, yes, it was that this was done in a letter and then we had the endorsement in short order and a tweet following that. But it has been the kind of mounting quantity of knock on endorsements that we've seen from members of Congress, and I'd love to just hear perspective on that. Joe how quickly this has happened, and what it says to you about the Democratic parties willing is here as I see it to Galvin, I as an orient itself around Kamala Harris.
Well, it's not like they didn't have time to prepare for this. Apps and knowing that the phone calls were happening, the most important ones I've seen here CBC, CCHC. The last holdout was Jim Clyburn. You've got the Congressional Black Caucus now endorsing Harris with gratitude to Joe Biden. A great debt of gratitude, says the statement of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus chair now doing exactly the same here on X. So this this feels kind of like a coronation. But guys, you know, I have to admit I've been pushing back on a lot of this conversation over the last week because this is I thought, why we had a vice president whoever heard of blowing up the whole thing a couple of weeks before a convention when you actually have someone in waiting who shares the delegates and the money. To your point earlier, Tom, it does seem like that would have created an enormous a voice and would have insulted a lot of people.
Absolutely, you're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm David Durou with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Plenty ahead. This has been.
Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from Bloomberg Radio.
You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm David Dura with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid, Biden saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee.
Joining us now is can I just say my favorite Henrietta Trees is just absolutely fabulous at Veda partners with encyclopedic knowledge of Capitol Hill. Because this is not just about the presidential election, It's about a landslide. Is the Republican speak of a Republican House, a Republican Senate with mister Trump on term two, I would note Henrietta Trees and thank you for joining Joe Matthew, David Gura and myself, Jessica Taylor over at to cook political report, writing up a single headline only days ago, Michigan Senate moves to toss up as Democrats tied to defy political gravity. You are expert on houses in Senate. Does does this news today make it less likely of a landslide? I would say a Republican landslide.
Yes, thank you for having me the feelings mutual. Yes, absolutely, this makes it less of a landslide. American voters and in particular Democrats, have been primed for this chaos for months now. They knew it well before the sort of elites of the party got on board and started calling for President Biden to step aside and not run for a second term. The American public has disproportionately large support for the Senate candidates, including in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, you know, even Montana, than anything that President Biden was doing at the top of the ticket. So his decision, his sort of magnanimous and enormous decision to step aside and put Kamala at the front up a race for the vice presidential ticket, opens up a debate about which direction the party is going to go on the electoral college front. And what's interesting to me is that you know, Trump is ahead by four and a half points in Pennsylvania. Biden and Kamala Harris have been doing very well in Michigan and Wisconsin comparatively, but the next closest states in line are Georgia and then just not too far after that, North Carolina. I wouldn't be surprised if the whole Democratic Party strategy shifts to more of a southern direction. I'm especially just about to publish the electoral college map if they lose Nevada and Arizona, which they could pick it up still if they win North Carolina.
And we're sick about this, David Gurrs, I first heard that from Joe Matthew. Yes, it's just incredible how that works.
We've been parroting the Roy Cooper line numerous times, Joe over the course over the course of these two hours, Henryette, I want to ask you about what happened in March of twenty twenty one. That is, when Joe Biden said to Kamala Harris, I'm naming you the borders are You're going to have responsibility for the US Mexico border and policy they're going forward this This is going to be something that the specter of this decision is going to come out pretty quickly, and they're going to use it against her. How does she push back on that? You look at what's happened here in recent months, the number of border guard interactions with folks crossing the border has gone down. There has been progress here. How much is that going to stick with the electorate. How effectively do you think the Trump campaign would be able to use that against Kamala Harris if indeed she is the nominee here going forward.
It's fascinating voter opinion where they have immigration is the number one issue. These are disproportionately white, male, middle aged voters who are going to be in the Trump camp. I think no matter what Democrats convey or Kamala Harris conveys about the facts on the ground, I've been marketing, you know, obviously, all the time since February.
And one of the most striking things the constant.
Request I get for information after our meetings is whenever I say, you know, border crossings are down fifty four percent, they're down forty percent. They're now at the lowest point they have been even since before Biden took office, and everybody has to fact check that because it sounds so disjointed from what we hear either at the RNC or you for the last four years.
So I think that there's a big education.
Process that the Kamala Harris and whoever her VP is going to be next and President Biden to explain that in the last six months they have gotten immigration crossings at the border below the level of even when they took office. So that message is going to have to get across, for sure, mostly to Democratic voters, and I would also say suburban white voters like those in Indiana who have voted twenty two percent for Nikki Hayley just a few weeks back. Land.
You back to this tweet from jd Vance that has a lot of us talking in the wake of Milwaukee, where we heard from a number of Republican lawmakers who said there's no way that if Joe Biden drops out of this race, he can continue serving out the rest of this term. Jd Vance saying there is no middle ground running for reelection would be a clear admission that Trump was right all along about Biden not being mentally fit enough to serve as commander in chief. Donald Trump puts on truth social following the news today Crooked Joe just got knocked out. So now I'll have to do it a fourth time. I guess my question is, how likely is it if Donald Trump wins another term, will he be the forty seventh or forty eighth president.
I would say if he were to win another term, it would be this next time around.
If that's what you're getting at.
I mean, I do think it's a false construct to come in the way that Jadie Vance does in his tweet and say, you know, Biden need But could we.
Be in a world in which Kamala Harris finds herself president of the United States before November and then Donald Trump serves another term?
No, No, I mean, first of all, the challenger doesn't get to dictate the terms of the boots on the ground reality. Brden is president. There is not another election between now and then. Kamala is not gonna, you know, step in and you surp his role. This is why there's succession, as you just discussed, you know, this is what it says in the constitution. So he finishes his term, he's not running for another term, and he's decided that he's going to endorse Kamala and we'll go through the process of the DNC. But no, I don't expect Biden to step down. And I think it's a sort of a false construct to think that the challenger has any say in who the current president is.
Not to suggest as much, but Joe Biden might find that he cannot finish out the rest of this term. Kamala Harris would then have to step in. Donald Trump could still win the election. I guess I'm just wondering if we should all be calling, you know, talking about the possibility of Trump forty seven when it could be forty eight. What makes you so sure Joe Biden can finish out the rest.
Of his term.
Well, I'm not his healthcare provider or anything along those lines, but I don't think that a groundswell push that has successfully gotten him to not run for a second term would be effective in trying to get him to resign quickly. That's not what the Democratic Party is asking for, That's not what the delegates are asking for.
So I'm not expecting.
David Gerry, have you seen any more news here, any more comments from people I see? I'm watching Fox here with our great TV setup here, it's going to be fascinating to see the response of the Republicans all this. Have you seen any new colors too?
And see my eye drifting over to Fox News where the Chiron was saying Democrats divided. And I will say from all that I've read the great summary that we've gotten on our top live blog on the Bloomberg, it doesn't seem like there is a ton of division within the Democrats who have waited on this. Yes, there were some like Governor Evers who were withholding an explicit nomination, but a lot of people getting in line and endorsing Kamala Harris as the nominee.
I see.
You know we spoke earlier about President Clinton and Secretary Clinton endorsing Kamala Harris in a joint statement. Another married couple, Senator Kelly and Gabby Gifford's doing the same thing as well. Senator Kelly is somebody we were talking about a little earlier on the show as somebody who could be seen as a potential nominee, somebody who former astronaut, maybe combat pilot. Could he be somebody who woud seek the presidency?
Yeah? But can he take Pennsylvania.
Well, he indicating he's no longer no longer interested in doing that.
Yeah.
Yeah, But to that point, Henrietta, let me ask you sort of who you're looking at as we kind of look at all of these names and statements coming out here, who do you want to hear from? And Joe mentioning just moments ago the importance of hearing from Jim Clyburn, who essentially annointed Joe Biden to winning the nomination the last time around. Are there any that you haven't heard from yet? Who do you think is that has the most signal importance here as we put together those endorsements in the coming hours.
Well, I didn't realize it was such common understanding already, But I do think that a lot of attention to be paid on North Carolina and Georgia right now, and that strategy Arizona would be a fantastic thing to be able to keep in your back pocket for the Democratic Party. But if you're following it all the primary data and the voting registration and responses coming in there now, which is being published weekly, Republicans are far and away ahead in Arizona.
So when you look at the in just as the case in Nevada.
So as you look at who could be the vice presidential nominee, you know, a Roy Cooper kind of name in North Carolina makes a lot more sense than a Mark Kelly. If they're going to pursue that strategy, which I assume they would, I wouldn't anticipate Raphael Warnock being involved, but I do think that it's really a concentration on the swing states. It's my expectation that you're not going to see two women on the tickets, so that takes Gretch and Whitmer off the table, even though Michigan would be very nice to have some additional shoring up. But Shapiro in Pennsylvania also makes sense. Pritzker and Illinois has talked about a lot, but my personal focus for the next couple weeks is going to be on North Carolina and Georgia, and I assume that's the direction.
They're going to go with good reason, Henrietta. When you consider the next three weeks, typically you'd want to roll out something like this as soon as you can. Following your opponent's political convention. The RNC is behind us, Donald Trump and JD Vance are already traveling together. How sure. Does this ticket need to be before we get into Chicago or will this running be decided there?
I don't think it needs to be sure at all.
I mean, think of Trump announcing Jadie Vance on Monday of the convention. You know, it really doesn't be for a few more weeks. Certainly the delegates are going to be meeting the Roles Committee and all those groups, but you don't need to have a nominee for a while.
But what I would encourage investors to think about is that Trump is.
At very high numbers in the polls right now, well above where he has been leading Biden in all year, thirty four points five or six in some states. So ask yourself sort of the trajectory of what's going to happen from here. We have of all the names we just listed on the shortlist for VP, almost none of them have written name recognition that's above fifty percent. So there's going to be a tremendous amount of focus on this seismic event because it is so massive to sort of the process of democracy, and that's naturally going to attach attract eyeballs. What we're going to see is massive name recognition shift the polls. I think pretty materially my expectation as we start off at a deficit, I'm going to start treating Trump as though he is the incumbent because he's been president for you know, it's obviously a little bit of a gray area. So I'm going to see want to see Kamala above try out by three or four points in these swing states in order to think that she could reasonably win them. That's going to be the strategy. I think poling is going to move a lot in the next couple of weeks, which.
Henrietta, you and Terryans have been just great about that. I'm really interested in what the polls show. Henrietta Trey's Vada partner somehow. I think we'll speak tomorrow. Thank you so much for being with this.
You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm David Dura with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew.
We you ahead.
This is Believe. Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from Bloomberg Radio.
You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm David Dua with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking News this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his re election bid, Biden saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee.
Let us listen Thursday to the vice President of the United States.
Donald Trump were to win in November. He will continue to sell out working families, he will continue to attack reproductive freedom, and he will continue to undermine our democracy.
The Vice President of the United States here on this very special Sunday that was done a few days ago. Joe Matthew, your thoughts here as we move up towards your balance of power.
We heard from JD Vance a short time ago. This is the latest since the decision. Joe Biden has been the worst president in my lifetime. In Kamala Harris right there with him every step of the way. This is going to be the message here that nothing has changed. Remember what we talked about in Milwaukee. This is the same person with a different name. Wait for her to show up at the debate with Donald Trump, which I will submit is going to be a lot more challenging for him than the one he just went through. What the line from the Republican Party is what you see here is the same as well, you had. We just beat Joe Biden. Now we have to do it again with Kamala Harris.
Picking up on something you mentioned there, Joe, I mean, I look back at the interview that Bloomberg BusinessWeek did with Donald Trump. He said this very explicitly. I think they asked him in that interview, Nancy Cook, Bradstone and our other colleagues asking him sort of what difference it would make if the nominee wasn't going to be Joe Biden. And what he said was effectively, the campaign is the same. The way that they plan on waging this is the same. And Tom, I think that'll be fascinating to see how true that is here as we move ahead.
Joining us right now on Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Radio, and on YouTube. Is the most important person for us and Washington. She's Margaret Collins. She's the one that takes care of me and Washington gets me through the day somehow, and herds cats to the tune of any really David any Washington News bureau. The person running the news bureau. It's like the worst job at any.
News Oh, it's a big job. I'll say that I would call it the worst, but she does.
Peggy Collins joins us here on this historic Sunday, Peggy to talk about western Massachusetts, because I can remember times where Massachusetts surprised me on the edge of a purple state. You're out of the College of the Holy Cross, which is from Boston, far western Massachusetts. From your reporting and all the sources you have at our Washington News Bureau, would you assume that purple states became more purple this Sunday afternoon?
Well, I think Tom, it remains to be seen, you know, sitting here today in this Washington Bureau that you just mentioned with colleagues like our great Joe Matthew and you, as you're saying when you're visiting, it's just a historic day here in Washington. But there are you know, still several months ago, we're coming off of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where the Republicans were riding high really feeling like that map that you're talking about blue, red, purple had really opened up over the last few weeks after Biden's disastrous debate, and they were talking about states being in play, like Minnesota, New Hampshire, Virginia. But I do think, as David was just mentioning, it's going to be interesting to see where the pools land over the next several days, now that Trump is no longer going to be running against Biden, and you're going to have, no matter what, the younger candidate, you could have a woman candidate, and I think it will change the landscape for sure.
Joe Matthew, excuse me, Joe Matthew. There are important Congress people, and then there's the most important Congress person for President.
Biden, the man who brung him, as Joe Biden likes to say, Jim Clyburn now making it official endorsing Kamala Harris with a lengthy statement Tom that of course begins with a lengthy paragraph talking about the honor and privilege of calling Joe Biden a friend, but it ends with the endorsement I echo the good judgment he demonstrated, and selecting Vice President Harris to lead this nation alongside him, and proud to follow his lead in support for candidacy to succeed him as the party's nominee for President Peggy Collins. This is a pretty big moment and the Democrats supporting Kamala Harris, who have been very worried about this being blown into an open fight, are probably breathing a sigh of relief. Now is the idea of a contested convention now off the table?
I don't think it's off the table, Joe, But the signs that we're seeing from our reporting so far is that quickly a number of key Democrats, including the Clintons, are coming out and endorsing Harris. So the current right now seems to be going in her direction without any big names that have been talked about, Whitmer, Pritzker, Newsomb, you know, coming out yet to challenge. They don't have a lot of time left before the Democratic National Convention starts on August nineteenth, so the question of whether or not the party can hold together behind a candidate between now and then is critical.
Peggy.
I think of the old Hemingway quote about Bankruptcley slowly than all at once as I think about how all of this happened, and there was the beginning a handful of Congress people who raised alarm about this suggested that Joe Biden should drop out. That began to build over the last few days that's gotten us to this moment. What is your perspective on the timing of all of this. You know, we have a few weeks here till the convention, one hundred and seven days until the election itself. I guess what I'm asking you is is what took the president so long as we sort of saw the writing on the wall, and how much does that sort of not damage the Democratic Party here going forward but set them back? Yes, he had COVID, Yes he was road with Beach Delaware fighting that and thinking through all of this. But what do you make of how long this took in light of that poor debate performance and what happens since?
Well, I think a couple of things, David, As you mentioned the debate performance June twenty seventh, but you know, we were working furiously through July fourth weekend because cracks had already started to form then. So he held on for weeks. He held on through NATO, which was happening here in Washington after July fourth weekend, and then he went through the presser but didn't knock it.
Out of the park.
It was okay after the NATO meeting, and I think it's this past week the mountain of pressure that just kept building and more and more people coming out, even while the Republicans were convening in Milwaukee and either even after the attemptive assassination with Trump that certain key people came out and called for the President to step aside in the race. I will also note, when you think about the last time this happened in nineteen sixty eight with LBJ, he didn't address from the Oval Office. That surprised the nation at the time to say he was not going to seek reelection. In this case, I think Biden really truly was trying to hold on and thought he might be able to make a case to stay in the race. But ultimately the pressure just broke that damn and he had to make the announcement in a statement over Twitter because he's dealing with COVID in Rehova speech. So I think it's not the way they wanted to do it, certainly, and I think he was fighting to the bitter end to hold on.
Peggy, what's that speech going to be? Like alluded to in that note to the American people, He's going to explain his decision more in the coming days. Here, What do you what do our colleagues expect in terms of both presentation, what we're likely to hear from the President, any sense at this point of how much that's going to mirror what we got from LBJ in nineteen sixty eight.
I think we're still reporting out when exactly that will be and where he will do it. We think that it would likely be from the White House. But I think in terms of the themes we expect him to hit so far, would certainly be on democracy. That's something that he really hammered in on before the midterms a couple of years ago and had a lot of resonance. But I do think it's one thing that he really had said time and time again that he feels like this is an election where democracy is on the line, and he feels like he has held up democracy here in the country. So we expect that and also expect him to note a couple of his key achievements, that being the huge infrastructure spending bill that he got passed through and the Inflation Act that has a lot of future spending on things like energy efficiency electric vehicles, which of course the Republicans have attacked. But I think he will hone in on some of his legislative achievements and harken back to like where he started and what he wanted to do when he first became president.
Peggy, what do you think of the fact that this rolled out on Twitter? Is Joe Biden not physically well enough to address the American people? Shouldn't this be an oval office address?
You asked a delicate question, Joe Matthew I thought of that driving in here. I mean, you really wonder at the pace of this. Thank you Joe for asking't it? Peggy?
I think COVID is one hundred percent a factor. I think you know, he wasn't looking good last week when they announced that he was he had COVID and was going to need to isolate. And I think we're on a Sunday and we're going into the week markets are going to open in Asia. I think they really did feel like, with the mountain of pressure that they needed to make a decision. They couldn't just leave it hanging in the air in terms of the good for the party over the next several days. But I don't think this is the ideal scenario for how they would have liked to do it. And because he is still recovering from COVID, so therefore or can't do a public address the way they might have wanted to.
Margaret Collins, our Washington newsbrial chief, a lengthy Sunday to say the least, thank you so much for you and your team's effort in Washington. There is a view from sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue. It is a different view on this Sunday afternoon, David Gura, Jordan Fabian has been seeing it from there to Delaware.
Jordan, great to have you with us here for your perspective on this as well. And maybe I can put to you a variation of the question that I asked Peggy, which is what has this weekend been like? What has the build been like in recent days to this moment? You charting the president's state of mind and what he's been up to. And in Rehoboth Beach where he has a home, what finally broke the dam? Final convinced him from your reporting, what convinced him that this was the decision that he.
Had to make.
Yeah, Look, he's been under just relentless pressure from his allies even after he was diagnosed with COVID. Last week he saw at least a dozen other Democratic lawmakers come out, and so it appeared the pressure just became unbearable. It's still surprising though, I mean, Biden has been, you know, a stubborn guy throughout his career. In the weeks prior, it seemed like the pressure was only causing him to dig in further. But you know, perhaps weekend, by COVID, sitting at home in Rehoboth Beach with his family and close advisors, they were able to step back and reflect and just see the picture that a past the victories against Donald Trump just wasn't tenable.
What happens, go ahead, go ahead, shoe yes, sorry, David. What happens with this meeting with Benjamin Nettan ya who this week? Some thought that would be a reason for Joe Biden to postpone a statement like this. He still plans to meet with the prime minister. Does this go as schedules?
There's a lot of uncertainty right now, and so I don't want to say anything definitively, but we haven't heard otherwise that that's rescheduled. The President did indicate in his statement that he's going to serve out his term, so an official act like that, like meeting with the leader of Israel would seem to stay on the schedule, but we just don't know for sure at this time what he's really going.
To do next week. Joined a delicate question. How is missus Biden the first Lady? Has there been any reporting this afternoon of well, I guess the family in general, but I think all of any persuasion of politics would like to know how the first Lady is doing. Has there been any reporting on that, Jordan Fabian.
It's been hard to figure out what exactly the reaction is, but this has to be a painful moment for the Biden family. Joe Biden is someone who spent five decades in Washington working toward the goal becoming president. He finally achieves echo in twenty twenty. And you know, he obviously accomplished a lot help defeat Donald Trump, but his uh, his presidency is going to end in one term against and amid a lot of recriminations from fellow Democrats and friends to get out.
Jordan Fabian, thank you so much, your White House correspondent.
You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm David Dura with Tom Keane and Joe Matthew plenty ahead this he's bloom
