Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo carp Play and then Proud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo carp Play and then Proud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Shall we kick off this week and geopolitical news with a series of developments in regard to Israel. As we've mentioned, Netanyahu has disbanded dissolved his war cabinet. They also have decided to prod pursue some tactical pauses to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza. And interesting, after we just saw Anthony blink In, the Secretary of State completing his eighth trip to the Middle East since October seventh, a.

Shall we kick off this week and geopolitical news with a series of developments in regard to Israel. As we've mentioned, Netanyahu has disbanded dissolved his war cabinet. They also have decided to prod pursue some tactical pauses to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza. And interesting, after we just saw Anthony blink In, the Secretary of State completing his eighth trip to the Middle East since October seventh, a.

New envoy is now in the Middle East, almost Hawkstein.

New envoy is now in the Middle East, almost Hawkstein.

He of course is frequently here on Bloomberg TV and radio to talk about energy policy.

He of course is frequently here on Bloomberg TV and radio to talk about energy policy.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Interesting that one of the President's closest energy advisors the most recent to get the call to basically leverage the relationships he has in the region. He may not be the Secretary of State, but he seems to be the man of the moment. CIA Director Bill Burns has fallen into that role more than once. And this really brings us more to the idea of avoiding a new front to the north in a war with Hesbelah, which is something that almost Hochstein is there talking about. And Courtney McBride is here talking with us from Bloomberg's National Security team. Courtney of course covers the State Department, the administration, geopolitics and diplomacy for us. It's great to see you back at the table here, Almost Hochstein rising to the surface here what can he unlock for this administration?

Interesting that one of the President's closest energy advisors the most recent to get the call to basically leverage the relationships he has in the region. He may not be the Secretary of State, but he seems to be the man of the moment. CIA Director Bill Burns has fallen into that role more than once. And this really brings us more to the idea of avoiding a new front to the north in a war with Hesbelah, which is something that almost Hochstein is there talking about. And Courtney McBride is here talking with us from Bloomberg's National Security team. Courtney of course covers the State Department, the administration, geopolitics and diplomacy for us. It's great to see you back at the table here, Almost Hochstein rising to the surface here what can he unlock for this administration?

Absolutely well, thank you both for having me here today. Almost Hochstein is really trying to leverage, as you said, those relationships to prevent another full front in the war from opening to the north between Israel and Lebanon. And really he's able to speak with leaders in both places to try to cool tensions and continue the ongoing efforts by the administration to keep the war from spreading even further into a full scale regional conflagration.

Absolutely well, thank you both for having me here today. Almost Hochstein is really trying to leverage, as you said, those relationships to prevent another full front in the war from opening to the north between Israel and Lebanon. And really he's able to speak with leaders in both places to try to cool tensions and continue the ongoing efforts by the administration to keep the war from spreading even further into a full scale regional conflagration.

It's pretty stunning, Courtney that obviously a lot of us have spent so much time in recent weeks trying to dissect and calculate the odds of some kind of temporary ceasefire being reached between Israel and Hamas to essentially stop the fighting in Gaza. All the while it seems that others were focused pretty intensely on making sure that it doesn't cross other borders, like with Lebanon. Is there a feeling that it is more at risk of happening now in this moment than at any other time since this conflict began.

It's pretty stunning, Courtney that obviously a lot of us have spent so much time in recent weeks trying to dissect and calculate the odds of some kind of temporary ceasefire being reached between Israel and Hamas to essentially stop the fighting in Gaza. All the while it seems that others were focused pretty intensely on making sure that it doesn't cross other borders, like with Lebanon. Is there a feeling that it is more at risk of happening now in this moment than at any other time since this conflict began.

I don't know that I would say that necessarily, but there have been periods where the risk is assessed to be greater of an escalation. And you know, as you said, the ceasefire conversations are ongoing but perhaps stalled, and in the interim you do have this unilateral pause by Israel to allow for greater delivery of humanitarians.

I don't know that I would say that necessarily, but there have been periods where the risk is assessed to be greater of an escalation. And you know, as you said, the ceasefire conversations are ongoing but perhaps stalled, and in the interim you do have this unilateral pause by Israel to allow for greater delivery of humanitarians.

So talk to us about this eight am to seven pm, a tactical pause that comes in lieu of a cease fire. What has brought Benjamin etna who to this point? And could this tactically expand into something bigger.

So talk to us about this eight am to seven pm, a tactical pause that comes in lieu of a cease fire. What has brought Benjamin etna who to this point? And could this tactically expand into something bigger.

There's always the possibility and the hope, certainly from the Biden administration, that we do still see a cease fire that is a mutually agreed end to hostilities. But this is an entirely separate issue. This is not something negotiated with Hamas. In fact, Hamas leadership claimed that they were left out of the conversation. But this is something that the Israeli government has determined that it can do and needs to do to allow more aid to flow.

There's always the possibility and the hope, certainly from the Biden administration, that we do still see a cease fire that is a mutually agreed end to hostilities. But this is an entirely separate issue. This is not something negotiated with Hamas. In fact, Hamas leadership claimed that they were left out of the conversation. But this is something that the Israeli government has determined that it can do and needs to do to allow more aid to flow.

Are they acknowledging these reports of famine on an official level by doing this?

Are they acknowledging these reports of famine on an official level by doing this?

I don't know that they're they're doing that necessarily, but the IDF is assessing that there is you know, there is an opportunity to pause their operation which are perhaps winding down at that heightened level in the Rafa area as well.

I don't know that they're they're doing that necessarily, but the IDF is assessing that there is you know, there is an opportunity to pause their operation which are perhaps winding down at that heightened level in the Rafa area as well.

So when we think about the Israeli government and the composition of it right now, how significant is it Courtney that the war cabinet has been dissolved. Is that more symbolic than anything else, or is that actually likely to change the trajectory of Israel's conduct in this conflict moving forward.

So when we think about the Israeli government and the composition of it right now, how significant is it Courtney that the war cabinet has been dissolved. Is that more symbolic than anything else, or is that actually likely to change the trajectory of Israel's conduct in this conflict moving forward.

I don't know that we can necessarily predict how this is going to affect the conduct of the war by the Israeli government, but it certainly is a massive shift over the last several months. This is the organization, This is the group that has has run the war effort, and it's no secret that it's been composed of individuals who are often politically at odds.

I don't know that we can necessarily predict how this is going to affect the conduct of the war by the Israeli government, but it certainly is a massive shift over the last several months. This is the organization, This is the group that has has run the war effort, and it's no secret that it's been composed of individuals who are often politically at odds.

Getting back to where we started with Anthony Blanken, is he planning a ninth trip?

Getting back to where we started with Anthony Blanken, is he planning a ninth trip?

How's the administration taking this?

How's the administration taking this?

Well, that's not necessarily something that I'm ever told, but it's based on the.

Well, that's not necessarily something that I'm ever told, but it's based on the.

Way you've seen them work though. Is this is something that's just going to be a rolling visit.

Way you've seen them work though. Is this is something that's just going to be a rolling visit.

It seems like from them, I mean, they tend to travel when there's an opportunity to meet with interlocutors who may be able to push things forward. So if you know, whether it's ceasefire negotiations, hostage releases, if there is something that can perhaps be achieved, that that's usually when we're on a plane to distant places.

It seems like from them, I mean, they tend to travel when there's an opportunity to meet with interlocutors who may be able to push things forward. So if you know, whether it's ceasefire negotiations, hostage releases, if there is something that can perhaps be achieved, that that's usually when we're on a plane to distant places.

Well, I wonder if in the month of July the need to go to the Middle East perhaps is superseded by Nenyahuo's own visit to the US as he scheduled to address a joint session of Congress. That presents another opportunity to meet.

Well, I wonder if in the month of July the need to go to the Middle East perhaps is superseded by Nenyahuo's own visit to the US as he scheduled to address a joint session of Congress. That presents another opportunity to meet.

That's going to be an interesting moment.

That's going to be an interesting moment.

We've talked to a lot of lawmakers, and to be clear, Democratic lawmakers who said, they're either struggling with this or they might not attend.

We've talked to a lot of lawmakers, and to be clear, Democratic lawmakers who said, they're either struggling with this or they might not attend.

That speech to Congress.

That speech to Congress.

That's a big deal though for Benjamin nettnyahho can the administration use that as a point of leverage to get something else here?

That's a big deal though for Benjamin nettnyahho can the administration use that as a point of leverage to get something else here?

There's certainly I think, going to seize the opportunity to speak with Prime Minister Netanyang when when he is in town. But what they attempt to achieve is is anyone's guest?

There's certainly I think, going to seize the opportunity to speak with Prime Minister Netanyang when when he is in town. But what they attempt to achieve is is anyone's guest?

All right, Courtney McBride playing the guesting game with us here on balance of pounds.

All right, Courtney McBride playing the guesting game with us here on balance of pounds.

Just a question of whether she wants to tell us it's just hedging courting. We appreciate it.

Just a question of whether she wants to tell us it's just hedging courting. We appreciate it.

On national security for us here at Bloomberg, we want to add a new voice to this conversation as well. Now in turn to Kelly Grico, she is Stimpson Center Senior Fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program. Welcome back to Balance of Power, Kelly. Always great to have you.

On national security for us here at Bloomberg, we want to add a new voice to this conversation as well. Now in turn to Kelly Grico, she is Stimpson Center Senior Fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program. Welcome back to Balance of Power, Kelly. Always great to have you.

If we could.

If we could.

First begin with these eleven hour tactical pauses that Israel is now putting into place trying to get that humanitarian aid in. How do you read into that tactical decision and whether it's one that could ultimately expand beyond eleven hour windows of time.

First begin with these eleven hour tactical pauses that Israel is now putting into place trying to get that humanitarian aid in. How do you read into that tactical decision and whether it's one that could ultimately expand beyond eleven hour windows of time.

Well, first of all, thank you for having me. Yes, So I think you know, there are a couple of things here. One is that there is a tempo to operations, and Israel has been engaged in some vary intense operations and you can't really sustain that momentum long term, and so this may be a natural time when it's regrouping, and so it allows for this kind of pause anyway, So I think that's one. But the second thing I think is I can't imagine this sort of converting itself into a long term ceasepire because Israel wants to obtain hostages and wants to rescue hostages in any kind of deal with Hamas, and so giving away this ceasepire for free in some sense doesn't really serve Israel's interests.

Well, first of all, thank you for having me. Yes, So I think you know, there are a couple of things here. One is that there is a tempo to operations, and Israel has been engaged in some vary intense operations and you can't really sustain that momentum long term, and so this may be a natural time when it's regrouping, and so it allows for this kind of pause anyway, So I think that's one. But the second thing I think is I can't imagine this sort of converting itself into a long term ceasepire because Israel wants to obtain hostages and wants to rescue hostages in any kind of deal with Hamas, and so giving away this ceasepire for free in some sense doesn't really serve Israel's interests.

Why haven't we seen more raids than Kelly we talked about one involving four hostages who were rescued at the expense according to Hamas of more than two hundred and fifty Palestinians during that raid. Are we going to see more activity like that or do they simply not know where the hostages are.

Why haven't we seen more raids than Kelly we talked about one involving four hostages who were rescued at the expense according to Hamas of more than two hundred and fifty Palestinians during that raid. Are we going to see more activity like that or do they simply not know where the hostages are.

Yeah.

Yeah.

I mean, I think this has been an intense debate about this exact issue, which is one is an intelligence challenge of course of knowing where they're located and being able to safely do this, meaning that you don't kill the hostages and the process.

I mean, I think this has been an intense debate about this exact issue, which is one is an intelligence challenge of course of knowing where they're located and being able to safely do this, meaning that you don't kill the hostages and the process.

So that is certainly a challenge.

So that is certainly a challenge.

And then the second part is there's been suggestions, it's very contentious inside Israel of whether the government is really prioritizing the rescue of hostages or if it's more focused on really combating Hamas itself, and that of course has been a real source of contention within Israeli society well.

And then the second part is there's been suggestions, it's very contentious inside Israel of whether the government is really prioritizing the rescue of hostages or if it's more focused on really combating Hamas itself, and that of course has been a real source of contention within Israeli society well.

And now it seems there is an open question Kelly about not just going to bat against Timas, but Hesbola as well. We were just talking about Almos hawks gen from the administration in the region now trying to make sure that things don't escalate on the northern border with Lebanon. How concerned would you be in this moment about another front opening up.

And now it seems there is an open question Kelly about not just going to bat against Timas, but Hesbola as well. We were just talking about Almos hawks gen from the administration in the region now trying to make sure that things don't escalate on the northern border with Lebanon. How concerned would you be in this moment about another front opening up.

Yes, I mean, I think this is very concerning.

Yes, I mean, I think this is very concerning.

What we're seeing is this slow moving escalation since October seventh, And in a way, because it's so slow moving, you can sort of almost fool yourself into thinking it won't happen. But what we're seeing is that a series of sort of escalating attacks in scale and in terms of intensity over especially the last couple of weeks. And so I don't think either side necessarily wants to get into a full scale war, but we're in a really I think dangerous period where neither side may consciously start a war but could inadvertently do so. And certainly the rhetoric on both sides is very intense, and I think this mission Bioxtein is there in particular to try to tell the Israelis to not, you know, consider launching some kind of limited ground invasion in into Lebanon. You know this, certainly if that were to happen, would create a lot of problems for the United States, in particular in terms of being able to support the Israelis, even in terms of weapons and equipment.

What we're seeing is this slow moving escalation since October seventh, And in a way, because it's so slow moving, you can sort of almost fool yourself into thinking it won't happen. But what we're seeing is that a series of sort of escalating attacks in scale and in terms of intensity over especially the last couple of weeks. And so I don't think either side necessarily wants to get into a full scale war, but we're in a really I think dangerous period where neither side may consciously start a war but could inadvertently do so. And certainly the rhetoric on both sides is very intense, and I think this mission Bioxtein is there in particular to try to tell the Israelis to not, you know, consider launching some kind of limited ground invasion in into Lebanon. You know this, certainly if that were to happen, would create a lot of problems for the United States, in particular in terms of being able to support the Israelis, even in terms of weapons and equipment.

Yeah, well that's my question here to what extent would that further complicate US relations with Iran? Would that with the US in a more precarious position than it is with Hamas.

Yeah, well that's my question here to what extent would that further complicate US relations with Iran? Would that with the US in a more precarious position than it is with Hamas.

Yes, I think that is absolutely right.

Yes, I think that is absolutely right.

I mean, the relationship between Hamas and Iran is not as close as the relationship between Iran has Belah, and so I think the possibility of Iran intervening far more directly if there was an you know, an intervention between Israel into Lebanon is far more likely. I Ran has certainly signaled that that that's far more likely to take action if there was a war between Israel and and has Belah, and so I think, you know, we're trying to avoid a regional conflict, and so that danger becomes far more heightened if we if we actually see this war be taken to Lebanon, and that's something we've been trying so actively to avoid, to avoid and the United States really the kinds of trade offs would become so acute for the United States.

I mean, the relationship between Hamas and Iran is not as close as the relationship between Iran has Belah, and so I think the possibility of Iran intervening far more directly if there was an you know, an intervention between Israel into Lebanon is far more likely. I Ran has certainly signaled that that that's far more likely to take action if there was a war between Israel and and has Belah, and so I think, you know, we're trying to avoid a regional conflict, and so that danger becomes far more heightened if we if we actually see this war be taken to Lebanon, and that's something we've been trying so actively to avoid, to avoid and the United States really the kinds of trade offs would become so acute for the United States.

We're trying to support.

We're trying to support.

A war in Ukraine, we have you know, signific concerns in the Indo Pacific, and if this becomes a regional conflict, trying to do all of this is frankly not possible to support all of these allies and partners, and it would really create really acute trade offs very quickly.

A war in Ukraine, we have you know, signific concerns in the Indo Pacific, and if this becomes a regional conflict, trying to do all of this is frankly not possible to support all of these allies and partners, and it would really create really acute trade offs very quickly.

Yeah, that's an excellent point, Kelly.

Yeah, that's an excellent point, Kelly.

There are so many hot conflicts that the US is paying acute attention to right now, including as you just mentioned Ukraine, and I would like to ask you about Vladimir Putin's trip to North Korea this week, the first time he has gone there since the year two thousand. Of course, there's been a lot of reporting of suspicions that Kim jungam's regime has been sending missiles to Russia to allow it to continue its war in Ukraine. How do you view this visit in the relationship between these two leaders.

There are so many hot conflicts that the US is paying acute attention to right now, including as you just mentioned Ukraine, and I would like to ask you about Vladimir Putin's trip to North Korea this week, the first time he has gone there since the year two thousand. Of course, there's been a lot of reporting of suspicions that Kim jungam's regime has been sending missiles to Russia to allow it to continue its war in Ukraine. How do you view this visit in the relationship between these two leaders.

Yes, well, I mean this is a marriage of convenience.

Yes, well, I mean this is a marriage of convenience.

You know, Putin has turned to Kim Jong un to be able to get you know, old stockpiles that the North Koreans have of lots of artillery, it seems, some short range ballistic missiles, and these are systems that are compatible with old Soviet equipment. What this has allowed for the Russians is essentially to use these sort of millions of our chillier rounds that have been provided to sustain them while they're building up their own industrial production. And in exchange, you know, this has been a good deal for Kim. He's gotten lots of economic aid. It seems some technology around space, satellites and including apparently a luxury limousine has been sent to Kim as well, and it's certainly, you know, it's increased his image on the international stage.

You know, Putin has turned to Kim Jong un to be able to get you know, old stockpiles that the North Koreans have of lots of artillery, it seems, some short range ballistic missiles, and these are systems that are compatible with old Soviet equipment. What this has allowed for the Russians is essentially to use these sort of millions of our chillier rounds that have been provided to sustain them while they're building up their own industrial production. And in exchange, you know, this has been a good deal for Kim. He's gotten lots of economic aid. It seems some technology around space, satellites and including apparently a luxury limousine has been sent to Kim as well, and it's certainly, you know, it's increased his image on the international stage.

Fascinating considering what North Korea is providing. Are they just filling the gap that China has left, didn't Vladimir Putin try to get all of this additionally from Beijing.

Fascinating considering what North Korea is providing. Are they just filling the gap that China has left, didn't Vladimir Putin try to get all of this additionally from Beijing.

Yes, that's exactly right, and I think it's worth noting that the quality of this as in question from what we know on the battlefield, so that that certainly provides some information for the North Korean and from what we know, the Chinese are not particularly happy about this relationship. There was some reporting suggesting that the Chinese explicitly asked Putin not to go directly from their May visit when Putin went to see went to Beijing to go directly to North Korea, because they don't want it looking like the new axis of evil in the West.

Yes, that's exactly right, and I think it's worth noting that the quality of this as in question from what we know on the battlefield, so that that certainly provides some information for the North Korean and from what we know, the Chinese are not particularly happy about this relationship. There was some reporting suggesting that the Chinese explicitly asked Putin not to go directly from their May visit when Putin went to see went to Beijing to go directly to North Korea, because they don't want it looking like the new axis of evil in the West.

They would like to create some distance.

They would like to create some distance.

And I don't think it's an accident that Putin is visiting North Korea and then he's visiting Vietnam again to sort of maybe create a little bit of distance so that it doesn't look as though there's some anti Western bloc forming. Whether that will be successful as another matter, But this creates some headaches for Beijing.

And I don't think it's an accident that Putin is visiting North Korea and then he's visiting Vietnam again to sort of maybe create a little bit of distance so that it doesn't look as though there's some anti Western bloc forming. Whether that will be successful as another matter, But this creates some headaches for Beijing.

Of course, Kelly.

Of course, Kelly.

All of this is coming in the aftermath of the G seven in Italy last week, in which we saw not only the countries agreeing to use Frozian Russian assets to provide a fifty billion dollar loan to Ukraine, but the signing of this ten year security agreement between the US and Ukraine. How significant is that really if it's not enforceable treaty.

All of this is coming in the aftermath of the G seven in Italy last week, in which we saw not only the countries agreeing to use Frozian Russian assets to provide a fifty billion dollar loan to Ukraine, but the signing of this ten year security agreement between the US and Ukraine. How significant is that really if it's not enforceable treaty.

Yeah, you said exactly the right thing, which is it's not an enforceable treaty.

Yeah, you said exactly the right thing, which is it's not an enforceable treaty.

So it's largely symbolic in my opinion.

So it's largely symbolic in my opinion.

It's symbolic politics, and that's about it. You know, if this was something that was to go to Congress and be a treaty, that would be a different matter, but any president could come in and overturn it, So symbolic politics.

It's symbolic politics, and that's about it. You know, if this was something that was to go to Congress and be a treaty, that would be a different matter, but any president could come in and overturn it, So symbolic politics.

Well, we're going into an interesting time, as we've been discussing, Kelly, politically speaking here. The next month will walk us up to the Republican Convention. We're going to have a number of important things that take place in the midst of it, including a presidential debate. So what extent are the stories we're talking about Israel and Ukraine going to be featured in that debate if at all.

Well, we're going into an interesting time, as we've been discussing, Kelly, politically speaking here. The next month will walk us up to the Republican Convention. We're going to have a number of important things that take place in the midst of it, including a presidential debate. So what extent are the stories we're talking about Israel and Ukraine going to be featured in that debate if at all.

Yeah, that's a great question.

Yeah, that's a great question.

I would I would think, you know, I always think that the economy is the most important thing first, but I do think this is actually an election year with foreign policy will matter quite a bit because it's taking us so many headlines in the news on a regular basis, and because the contrast is so stark, and Biden has used so much of his presidency to create this contrast, really emphasizing his relationships with allies and partners, and he's going to want to feature that. And I think Trump will want to feature his different approach, which is saying that he thinks, you know, that the United States is being taken for a ride and is doing too much in the world. And there is a real important debate that the two candidates can have on these issues.

I would I would think, you know, I always think that the economy is the most important thing first, but I do think this is actually an election year with foreign policy will matter quite a bit because it's taking us so many headlines in the news on a regular basis, and because the contrast is so stark, and Biden has used so much of his presidency to create this contrast, really emphasizing his relationships with allies and partners, and he's going to want to feature that. And I think Trump will want to feature his different approach, which is saying that he thinks, you know, that the United States is being taken for a ride and is doing too much in the world. And there is a real important debate that the two candidates can have on these issues.

I suspect you'll hear something about endless wars.

I suspect you'll hear something about endless wars.

Kelly Grico, thank you for being with us as always, senior fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center. With US on Balance of Power the Monday edition, I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines one month to the Republican National Convention.

Kelly Grico, thank you for being with us as always, senior fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center. With US on Balance of Power the Monday edition, I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines one month to the Republican National Convention.

It's kind of crazy to think about. We have less than two weeks to the debate.

It's kind of crazy to think about. We have less than two weeks to the debate.

YEP, next Thursday.

YEP, next Thursday.

Of course, it's this Thursday that Joe Biden's going to make his way to Camp David to start preparations. Unclear what kind of preparations Trump and his campaign are doing, but we're all just counting down to days until those two share a stage in the swing.

Of course, it's this Thursday that Joe Biden's going to make his way to Camp David to start preparations. Unclear what kind of preparations Trump and his campaign are doing, but we're all just counting down to days until those two share a stage in the swing.

State of Yestida.

State of Yestida.

Absolutely.

Absolutely.

In the meantime, the Biden campaign is deploying some money a big ad buy. We'll talk about next with our panel. Rick and Jeanie are with us on the Monday edition of Ballance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

In the meantime, the Biden campaign is deploying some money a big ad buy. We'll talk about next with our panel. Rick and Jeanie are with us on the Monday edition of Ballance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Rounoo with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Rounoo with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

We are counting down the days to June twenty seventh, the first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, set to take place in Atlanta. Next Tuesday, and between now and then, voters, especially in swing states, are going to be seeing a new ad from President Biden setting the stage for the debate that specifically focuses on Donald Trump's record in court and his recent thirty four convictions on felon accounts of falsifying business records. This is a fifty million dollar ad buy and here is a little clip.

We are counting down the days to June twenty seventh, the first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, set to take place in Atlanta. Next Tuesday, and between now and then, voters, especially in swing states, are going to be seeing a new ad from President Biden setting the stage for the debate that specifically focuses on Donald Trump's record in court and his recent thirty four convictions on felon accounts of falsifying business records. This is a fifty million dollar ad buy and here is a little clip.

This election is between a convicted criminal who's only out for himself and a president who's fighting for your family.

This election is between a convicted criminal who's only out for himself and a president who's fighting for your family.

The ad Joe is titled character Matters.

The ad Joe is titled character Matters.

Yeah, that's the race there.

Yeah, that's the race there.

I guess in the eyes of the Biden campaign, it's between a convicted criminal out for himself or this president who is.

I guess in the eyes of the Biden campaign, it's between a convicted criminal out for himself or this president who is.

Fighting for families.

Fighting for families.

Fifty million dollars is a good chunk of cash, and it's where we start our conversation with our signature panel. Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis are with us Bloomberg Politics contributors. There have been a lot of questions, Genie about when Joe Biden was going to put the money to work. This is the most recent example this approach. Character matters matters to whom they want it.

Fifty million dollars is a good chunk of cash, and it's where we start our conversation with our signature panel. Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis are with us Bloomberg Politics contributors. There have been a lot of questions, Genie about when Joe Biden was going to put the money to work. This is the most recent example this approach. Character matters matters to whom they want it.

To matter to voters in these swing states and I think the key here is the tagline that we keep hearing only out for himself. The reality is we heard that from Jill Biden, the first lady, at the big fundraiser over the weekend, and we've heard it from the campaign managers. Donald Trump rather is only out for himself. The conviction is making him, you know, even more animated and energized to get back in office so he can you know, try to pardon himself, which he can't from a state trial. But the reality is they want to make this case on everything from the convictions to the economy that this is all about Trump and his billionaire friends. So I think it's something we're going to hear a lot in the coming weeks.

To matter to voters in these swing states and I think the key here is the tagline that we keep hearing only out for himself. The reality is we heard that from Jill Biden, the first lady, at the big fundraiser over the weekend, and we've heard it from the campaign managers. Donald Trump rather is only out for himself. The conviction is making him, you know, even more animated and energized to get back in office so he can you know, try to pardon himself, which he can't from a state trial. But the reality is they want to make this case on everything from the convictions to the economy that this is all about Trump and his billionaire friends. So I think it's something we're going to hear a lot in the coming weeks.

Well, Donald Trump may be a billionaire rick, but we've been talking this entire cycle thus far about hads cash disadvantage when it comes to the Biden campaign. He had a really big month of May. Though we still haven't gotten May figures from Biden. We know he raised thirty millillion dollars in Hollywood just this weekend with George Clooney and Barack Obama beside him. But a fifty million dollar ad buy is a pretty big chunk of the war chest. Is that a wise financial decision, You know.

Well, Donald Trump may be a billionaire rick, but we've been talking this entire cycle thus far about hads cash disadvantage when it comes to the Biden campaign. He had a really big month of May. Though we still haven't gotten May figures from Biden. We know he raised thirty millillion dollars in Hollywood just this weekend with George Clooney and Barack Obama beside him. But a fifty million dollar ad buy is a pretty big chunk of the war chest. Is that a wise financial decision, You know.

I think it's questionable. Clearly, running ads in the summer is less effective than husbanding your resources and running them in the fall. It's pretty clear that voters tune in in September when trees start to change and people start thinking about the election. That being said, I think the Biden campaign is rightly concerned about their standing in the polls, rightly concerned about the positioning that the candidate is in, which is generally been trailing Donald Trump for the last six months, and I think they're trying to do something about it, especially before all the attention on the debates and the conventions and so long story short, Yeah, I think he's going to roll the dice. He's going to spend fifty million. I think they think money is not going to be the issue in closing this campaign, and you know, they got to what they can to try and get to put the candidate back in a better position, which in this case means driving negatives up on Donald Trump. This AD's not going to help Joe Biden get more popular, but it may help drive Donald Trump down to be less popular than Joe Biden.

I think it's questionable. Clearly, running ads in the summer is less effective than husbanding your resources and running them in the fall. It's pretty clear that voters tune in in September when trees start to change and people start thinking about the election. That being said, I think the Biden campaign is rightly concerned about their standing in the polls, rightly concerned about the positioning that the candidate is in, which is generally been trailing Donald Trump for the last six months, and I think they're trying to do something about it, especially before all the attention on the debates and the conventions and so long story short, Yeah, I think he's going to roll the dice. He's going to spend fifty million. I think they think money is not going to be the issue in closing this campaign, and you know, they got to what they can to try and get to put the candidate back in a better position, which in this case means driving negatives up on Donald Trump. This AD's not going to help Joe Biden get more popular, but it may help drive Donald Trump down to be less popular than Joe Biden.

Huh.

Huh.

And to that end, new numbers today from IPSOS and Political Magazine Interesting, Genie. We've seen a bit of research since Donald Trump's conviction, but not enough to really understand a trend if there is one. In this case, twenty one percent of independence said the conviction made them less likely to support Donald Trump. So is this campaign just about reminding them this happened?

And to that end, new numbers today from IPSOS and Political Magazine Interesting, Genie. We've seen a bit of research since Donald Trump's conviction, but not enough to really understand a trend if there is one. In this case, twenty one percent of independence said the conviction made them less likely to support Donald Trump. So is this campaign just about reminding them this happened?

It is partly about that.

It is partly about that.

And yeah, the idea that they're finding in this poll that his conviction, despite the big amount of money they've raised off of it, could be a liability when people go to the polls. Is you know what we're beginning to see in some of this polls. I don't think this is something we can tank to the bank, so to speak, at this point, because we've also seen some numbers suggesting Donald Trump is doing better after the conviction. But this is a fairly hopeful if you will sign for the Biden team that they should keep talking about the idea of a convicted felon serving as president being something that most voters will not or many voters in the independent lane will not. Continence, and the other interesting thing I think we should pay attention to is Donald Trump losing support amongst sixty five plus. His numbers amongst seniors are down. A Republican has not lost sixty five plus since before two thousand, So the idea that his numbers are down there even a little bit, and in swing states, that's a big problem for Donald Trump and a big win for Joe Biden. So there have been some of these positive signed mildly positive, I would say, in the polling numbers we're seeing in the last few weeks.

And yeah, the idea that they're finding in this poll that his conviction, despite the big amount of money they've raised off of it, could be a liability when people go to the polls. Is you know what we're beginning to see in some of this polls. I don't think this is something we can tank to the bank, so to speak, at this point, because we've also seen some numbers suggesting Donald Trump is doing better after the conviction. But this is a fairly hopeful if you will sign for the Biden team that they should keep talking about the idea of a convicted felon serving as president being something that most voters will not or many voters in the independent lane will not. Continence, and the other interesting thing I think we should pay attention to is Donald Trump losing support amongst sixty five plus. His numbers amongst seniors are down. A Republican has not lost sixty five plus since before two thousand, So the idea that his numbers are down there even a little bit, and in swing states, that's a big problem for Donald Trump and a big win for Joe Biden. So there have been some of these positive signed mildly positive, I would say, in the polling numbers we're seeing in the last few weeks.

Rick, what's your take on these figures? As as mentioned, twenty one percent of independence said the conviction is important to how they will vote, and it means they are less likely to support Trump. Perhaps not surprisingly, forty percent of Democrats had that answer, only seven percent of Republicans, the total being twenty two percent. But when we're talking about such a small portion of the electorate that is likely to decide the outcome, Rick, are those numbers enough?

Rick, what's your take on these figures? As as mentioned, twenty one percent of independence said the conviction is important to how they will vote, and it means they are less likely to support Trump. Perhaps not surprisingly, forty percent of Democrats had that answer, only seven percent of Republicans, the total being twenty two percent. But when we're talking about such a small portion of the electorate that is likely to decide the outcome, Rick, are those numbers enough?

It depends on which state. I would say, in states like the blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where the numbers have been in a dead heat, you're looking for sort of what positives you can find. This is a positive, right, This could be twenty five one hundred thousand people per state who might be less likely to vote. I think part of what this poll also total us. The ifs's poll asked you and is this a very important item because we know a lot of people would be less likely to vote if they knew the candidate you were running against was a criminal? But does that really make a big difference to them in their decision? And a substantial number, almost twenty percent said yes. So that is really interesting to me that someone would actually decide the outcome of their vote on this conviction. So I think in those states it's critically important. In states where they've migrated to five ten points difference between each other, it's just on the margins at that stage. But right now, I don't think you can really rely on anybody's polls, but the candidates, and clearly Biden took a poll and tested this and said it's worth investing fifty million dollars behind a message because they see it helping them.

It depends on which state. I would say, in states like the blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where the numbers have been in a dead heat, you're looking for sort of what positives you can find. This is a positive, right, This could be twenty five one hundred thousand people per state who might be less likely to vote. I think part of what this poll also total us. The ifs's poll asked you and is this a very important item because we know a lot of people would be less likely to vote if they knew the candidate you were running against was a criminal? But does that really make a big difference to them in their decision? And a substantial number, almost twenty percent said yes. So that is really interesting to me that someone would actually decide the outcome of their vote on this conviction. So I think in those states it's critically important. In states where they've migrated to five ten points difference between each other, it's just on the margins at that stage. But right now, I don't think you can really rely on anybody's polls, but the candidates, and clearly Biden took a poll and tested this and said it's worth investing fifty million dollars behind a message because they see it helping them.

Rick, I wonder your thoughts on the optics. Over the weekend, Donald Trump in Detroit, asking black voters for their support. Joe Biden out west in California, sharing a stage with the glitterati. He was there with Barack Obama, Jimmy Kimmel on stage, Julia Roberts as there. George Clooney is the man behind the famous celebrity ad that John McCain ran against Barack Obama.

Rick, I wonder your thoughts on the optics. Over the weekend, Donald Trump in Detroit, asking black voters for their support. Joe Biden out west in California, sharing a stage with the glitterati. He was there with Barack Obama, Jimmy Kimmel on stage, Julia Roberts as there. George Clooney is the man behind the famous celebrity ad that John McCain ran against Barack Obama.

Do you see an opening here?

Do you see an opening here?

You know, Look, I think they're just chasing the changes in the electorate. I mean, we've been talking about Joe Biden's electric now being older, wider, more educated, more likely to be influenced by Hollywood than Donald Trump's, who is more working class, lacks college education, and frankly more multicultural.

You know, Look, I think they're just chasing the changes in the electorate. I mean, we've been talking about Joe Biden's electric now being older, wider, more educated, more likely to be influenced by Hollywood than Donald Trump's, who is more working class, lacks college education, and frankly more multicultural.

I mean, he is picking up.

I mean, he is picking up.

Especially young black males into his coalition. He could wind up receiving twenty percent of that vote in the election, which would be a really amazing historical level for a Republican candidate. And so it has as much to do with education as it does with color. It has as much to do with local living outside of cities versus in them. And so I think this was a perfect weekend. It shows you really how the parties have become restructured to the point where it's starting to show up in the things that they do, in the contrasts they make Hollywood versus you know, a black church in the Midwest.

Especially young black males into his coalition. He could wind up receiving twenty percent of that vote in the election, which would be a really amazing historical level for a Republican candidate. And so it has as much to do with education as it does with color. It has as much to do with local living outside of cities versus in them. And so I think this was a perfect weekend. It shows you really how the parties have become restructured to the point where it's starting to show up in the things that they do, in the contrasts they make Hollywood versus you know, a black church in the Midwest.

Well, and with this Hollywood event, as we mentioned, about thirty million dollars was raised by the Biden campaign.

Well, and with this Hollywood event, as we mentioned, about thirty million dollars was raised by the Biden campaign.

Genie.

Genie.

The FEC deadline to put in fundraising data for the month of May is later this week. We already heard from the Trump campaign several weeks ago one hundred and forty one million dollars raised in May, in part and large part off the back of his guilty verdict. Does it concern you that we haven't heard anything from the Biden campaign yet We might not until they actually are forced to by that deadline.

The FEC deadline to put in fundraising data for the month of May is later this week. We already heard from the Trump campaign several weeks ago one hundred and forty one million dollars raised in May, in part and large part off the back of his guilty verdict. Does it concern you that we haven't heard anything from the Biden campaign yet We might not until they actually are forced to by that deadline.

Yeah, I think that we're waiting to see. I mean, it would be really tough to match what the Trump campaign was able to do. Those were big numbers. That said, the eight million over the weekend was historic for on the Democratic side, and I think also important about that event, putting the celebrities aside, was the message that Joe Biden was able to get out, which is a warning about the impact on the court if Donald Trump wins, which is likely, two more appointees who are going to solidify a conservative majority, likely to take away key freedoms and rights until your grandkids and great grandkids potentially are adults. I mean, this is a really important message that they're underscoring, and I think we're going to hear more about that. So the celebrities were fascinating, but the message is critical and they've got to use this money they're raising to get that message out. Democrats don't traditionally vote on the court, but given we're at the chippery University of Dobbs, that's what we've seen happening in the last twenty four months.

Yeah, I think that we're waiting to see. I mean, it would be really tough to match what the Trump campaign was able to do. Those were big numbers. That said, the eight million over the weekend was historic for on the Democratic side, and I think also important about that event, putting the celebrities aside, was the message that Joe Biden was able to get out, which is a warning about the impact on the court if Donald Trump wins, which is likely, two more appointees who are going to solidify a conservative majority, likely to take away key freedoms and rights until your grandkids and great grandkids potentially are adults. I mean, this is a really important message that they're underscoring, and I think we're going to hear more about that. So the celebrities were fascinating, but the message is critical and they've got to use this money they're raising to get that message out. Democrats don't traditionally vote on the court, but given we're at the chippery University of Dobbs, that's what we've seen happening in the last twenty four months.

All Right, Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis are Bloomberg Politics contributors kicking things off for it on this Monday.

All Right, Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis are Bloomberg Politics contributors kicking things off for it on this Monday.

Thank you so much.

Thank you so much.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and Thenroudoo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. Watch us Live on YouTube.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and Thenroudoo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. Watch us Live on YouTube.

An interesting week for news in the Middle East as we turn our attention back to the campaign trail, and you can't have one story without the other. To the extent that Israel has resonated on the campaign for Joe Biden has created a real deficit, We're told by a lot of pollsters when it comes specifically to young voters, but progressive Democrats of all ages and many people of color. And this is a problem for Joe Biden knowing how close things are. Just one of many things I wanted to talk out with Don Levy. It's always a pleasure to spend some time with the director of the Sienna College Research Institute. When you hear about the Siena College New York Times poll, this is the man behind it, Donn. It's great to see you. I hope you had a great Father's Day and welcome back to Bloomberg. This conversation we're having about Israel right now remains a problem for a lot.

An interesting week for news in the Middle East as we turn our attention back to the campaign trail, and you can't have one story without the other. To the extent that Israel has resonated on the campaign for Joe Biden has created a real deficit, We're told by a lot of pollsters when it comes specifically to young voters, but progressive Democrats of all ages and many people of color. And this is a problem for Joe Biden knowing how close things are. Just one of many things I wanted to talk out with Don Levy. It's always a pleasure to spend some time with the director of the Sienna College Research Institute. When you hear about the Siena College New York Times poll, this is the man behind it, Donn. It's great to see you. I hope you had a great Father's Day and welcome back to Bloomberg. This conversation we're having about Israel right now remains a problem for a lot.

Of young voters.

Of young voters.

Is it still the flash point that it was a couple of weeks ago? As people are reminded of their short memories.

Is it still the flash point that it was a couple of weeks ago? As people are reminded of their short memories.

It's certainly one of the flashpoints.

It's certainly one of the flashpoints.

I mean, Biden has a problem with the young vote, there's no question about it.

I mean, Biden has a problem with the young vote, there's no question about it.

It's a vote that.

It's a vote that.

He carried by about twenty three points in twenty twenty and our most recent polling across the nation as well as the battleground states, it's really a toss up.

He carried by about twenty three points in twenty twenty and our most recent polling across the nation as well as the battleground states, it's really a toss up.

You know, Biden's up by one point with.

You know, Biden's up by one point with.

Young people and certainly when we ask young people, who do you sympathize with more in the war between Israel and Clamas, and they're they young people by a plurality say they sympathize much more with the Palestinians.

Young people and certainly when we ask young people, who do you sympathize with more in the war between Israel and Clamas, and they're they young people by a plurality say they sympathize much more with the Palestinians.

So they're looking for a ceasefire.

So they're looking for a ceasefire.

They're looking for Biden to insert himself and to protect the lives of the gods and people.

They're looking for Biden to insert himself and to protect the lives of the gods and people.

To what extent is this driving people of color into Donald Trump's category? Because there's a big conversation right now and it's had every day just about on this program about Joe Biden losing his grip, it seems on the black vote and the appeal that Donald Trump has. He was in a church in Detroit over the weekend and dropped the line we've heard a lot of times Donnie says he's done more for the black community in this country than any president since Abraham Lincoln. Are you actually seeing this bear itself out in the numbers.

To what extent is this driving people of color into Donald Trump's category? Because there's a big conversation right now and it's had every day just about on this program about Joe Biden losing his grip, it seems on the black vote and the appeal that Donald Trump has. He was in a church in Detroit over the weekend and dropped the line we've heard a lot of times Donnie says he's done more for the black community in this country than any president since Abraham Lincoln. Are you actually seeing this bear itself out in the numbers.

Well, that's certainly not a question that we've asked in a poll.

Well, that's certainly not a question that we've asked in a poll.

But I think what we're seeing in our polling is you've got to again differentiate older Black voters.

But I think what we're seeing in our polling is you've got to again differentiate older Black voters.

From younger Black voters.

From younger Black voters.

Older Black voters, most especially older Black women have been an extremely reliable group for Democrats in general and Biden specifically, and he continues to retain support amongst Black voters over the age of fifty, where he's had an erosion. And when you see numbers where about twenty percent of the Black vote now is telling us pollsters that they're going to vote for Trump. That's amongst young Black voters. And really the key there is not the situation in the Middle East, but it's the economy. Young voters in general are extremely unhappy with the state of the economy. They don't approve the job that Joe Biden is doing on the economy. They think Donald Trump is a better steward of the economy. And that's especially true amongst all young voters and of young Black voters. That's where Biden's erosion really is being generated.

Older Black voters, most especially older Black women have been an extremely reliable group for Democrats in general and Biden specifically, and he continues to retain support amongst Black voters over the age of fifty, where he's had an erosion. And when you see numbers where about twenty percent of the Black vote now is telling us pollsters that they're going to vote for Trump. That's amongst young Black voters. And really the key there is not the situation in the Middle East, but it's the economy. Young voters in general are extremely unhappy with the state of the economy. They don't approve the job that Joe Biden is doing on the economy. They think Donald Trump is a better steward of the economy. And that's especially true amongst all young voters and of young Black voters. That's where Biden's erosion really is being generated.

Interesting, it's good to get specific on these things, certainly when you're talking to Don Levy. Fascinating take from Pew Research. Don on something you've talked about here more than once. The elusive or not so elusive, as it turns out, double hater those who say they don't like either major party presidential candidate. I wouldn't vote for Trump or Biden. It turns out, according to Pew, that it makes up a quarter of the electorate, and that's an all time high. How do you play with that going into a cycle?

Interesting, it's good to get specific on these things, certainly when you're talking to Don Levy. Fascinating take from Pew Research. Don on something you've talked about here more than once. The elusive or not so elusive, as it turns out, double hater those who say they don't like either major party presidential candidate. I wouldn't vote for Trump or Biden. It turns out, according to Pew, that it makes up a quarter of the electorate, and that's an all time high. How do you play with that going into a cycle?

Here?

Here?

Don I just mentioned we're going to be at the first convention one month from today, and in that time there will be the big debate, there will be Donald Trump sentencing, and probably a number of other things that can turn people's attention one way or the other here, including the naming of a vice presidential candidate. What do the double haters do with all of.

Don I just mentioned we're going to be at the first convention one month from today, and in that time there will be the big debate, there will be Donald Trump sentencing, and probably a number of other things that can turn people's attention one way or the other here, including the naming of a vice presidential candidate. What do the double haters do with all of.

That, Well, let's turn it on his head for just one second, Joe. Let's talk about the love haters for a second. Those people who have a favorable view of one of the candidates and an unfavorable view of the others. As you point out, that's about three quarters of the electorate, and their votes are.

That, Well, let's turn it on his head for just one second, Joe. Let's talk about the love haters for a second. Those people who have a favorable view of one of the candidates and an unfavorable view of the others. As you point out, that's about three quarters of the electorate, and their votes are.

Already almost etched in.

Already almost etched in.

Granted, amongst the love haters, they are with their candidate at the rate of about ninety five to one. Those folks are not going to switch. And if the election today were held only amongst the love haters, that's seventy five percent. If you one candidate favorably and the other unfavorably. Trump is up in the battleground states by about four points. When you turn now to our friends, the double haters who have a negative view of both of them, That group of people did tend to vote for Biden in the last election.

Granted, amongst the love haters, they are with their candidate at the rate of about ninety five to one. Those folks are not going to switch. And if the election today were held only amongst the love haters, that's seventy five percent. If you one candidate favorably and the other unfavorably. Trump is up in the battleground states by about four points. When you turn now to our friends, the double haters who have a negative view of both of them, That group of people did tend to vote for Biden in the last election.

Right now, they favor Biden by.

Right now, they favor Biden by.

About ten or eleven points nationally, by about eight points in the battleground states. But they're unhappy. They're desperately unhappy with the economy. They do tend to be younger, but at the same time they are ardently in favor of abortion rights, so they are up for grabs now. Some of those voters appear likely to leak off to a third party candidate. RFK is pulling in some of them. Doubt is counting on being able to bring home some of those double haters who had voted for him in twenty twenty. Right now they don't approve of Joe Biden. Biden's approval rating amongst young double haters is nine points approved and eighty eight points disapprove. So Biden's got his work cut out for him to bring those doubled haters, especially those young double haters, back home, And no doubt that's why he's bringing out some of the cultural icons some politicians who are seen more favorably amongst those double haters to try to get those folks to come back into the Biden fold.

About ten or eleven points nationally, by about eight points in the battleground states. But they're unhappy. They're desperately unhappy with the economy. They do tend to be younger, but at the same time they are ardently in favor of abortion rights, so they are up for grabs now. Some of those voters appear likely to leak off to a third party candidate. RFK is pulling in some of them. Doubt is counting on being able to bring home some of those double haters who had voted for him in twenty twenty. Right now they don't approve of Joe Biden. Biden's approval rating amongst young double haters is nine points approved and eighty eight points disapprove. So Biden's got his work cut out for him to bring those doubled haters, especially those young double haters, back home, And no doubt that's why he's bringing out some of the cultural icons some politicians who are seen more favorably amongst those double haters to try to get those folks to come back into the Biden fold.

We got to think about the weekend we just had it, and I wonder how you play the optics in your head here if we step away from the numbers for just a moment. With Don Levy, we saw the optics of President Biden on stage out in California, razzle, dazzle, lots of stars. Julia Roberts is there, Jimmy Kimmel's got him on stage with Barack Obama, and granted, I'm seeing lots of videos of him quote unquote freezing on the stage, and it doesn't seem that that's actually what happened. The contrast of Donald Trump going to Detroit and asking black voters to support him is great. If we come zoom the lens out even wider, some of the things that Donald Trump said at his rally over the weekend really paint a picture here of the contest that we're looking at. Do voters care about the optics that I describe, well.

We got to think about the weekend we just had it, and I wonder how you play the optics in your head here if we step away from the numbers for just a moment. With Don Levy, we saw the optics of President Biden on stage out in California, razzle, dazzle, lots of stars. Julia Roberts is there, Jimmy Kimmel's got him on stage with Barack Obama, and granted, I'm seeing lots of videos of him quote unquote freezing on the stage, and it doesn't seem that that's actually what happened. The contrast of Donald Trump going to Detroit and asking black voters to support him is great. If we come zoom the lens out even wider, some of the things that Donald Trump said at his rally over the weekend really paint a picture here of the contest that we're looking at. Do voters care about the optics that I describe, well.

I think both then to days, in some senses, they understand they understand that probably seventy five percent of the vote is already baked in, and so they're really competing for a.

I think both then to days, in some senses, they understand they understand that probably seventy five percent of the vote is already baked in, and so they're really competing for a.

Very small slice of the electorate.

Very small slice of the electorate.

And you slice that even dinner when you realize that it's only in six or seven states. So they're trying everything they can to sway those double haters, the young voters, to.

And you slice that even dinner when you realize that it's only in six or seven states. So they're trying everything they can to sway those double haters, the young voters, to.

Try to convince older voters.

Try to convince older voters.

Older voters had been more in Trump's camp, and older voters now are migrating over to some degree to Biden. It's really quite interesting that at this point when you talk to older voters.

Older voters had been more in Trump's camp, and older voters now are migrating over to some degree to Biden. It's really quite interesting that at this point when you talk to older voters.

They're starting to say that Biden is the more conservative candidate and that speaks to them.

They're starting to say that Biden is the more conservative candidate and that speaks to them.

Whereas young voters are looking for radical change, they want everything changed in our government.

Whereas young voters are looking for radical change, they want everything changed in our government.

Older voters do not.

Older voters do not.

And older voters are concerned about social security, medical issues, and that right now they're starting to see Biden protecting those more so than Trump. So we've seen a bit of an inversion, at least in Poeing right now, where younger voters are moving away from Biden, but older voters are moving towards him right now.

And older voters are concerned about social security, medical issues, and that right now they're starting to see Biden protecting those more so than Trump. So we've seen a bit of an inversion, at least in Poeing right now, where younger voters are moving away from Biden, but older voters are moving towards him right now.

Fascinating, fascinating. I've only got a minute left. Don you mentioned RFK Junior. I just wonder if he finds his way onto the debate stage, how much of a threat that will be for the front runners here, how disruptive that could be to the race.

Fascinating, fascinating. I've only got a minute left. Don you mentioned RFK Junior. I just wonder if he finds his way onto the debate stage, how much of a threat that will be for the front runners here, how disruptive that could be to the race.

Well, it's certainly a threat, and it's a threat to both of them, because again you're looking at that thin slice of these double haters who you know, and you got to remember it. They don't like either of the major party candidates. So another opportunity, another option appeals to them at this point in time in the campaign. The rationale that says, hey, you'd be wasting a vode. You know that candidate can't win. You're really, you know, a spoiler that doesn't resonate yet. As you said, we're looking at the debate, we're looking at the sentencing, we're looking at the conventions.

Well, it's certainly a threat, and it's a threat to both of them, because again you're looking at that thin slice of these double haters who you know, and you got to remember it. They don't like either of the major party candidates. So another opportunity, another option appeals to them at this point in time in the campaign. The rationale that says, hey, you'd be wasting a vode. You know that candidate can't win. You're really, you know, a spoiler that doesn't resonate yet. As you said, we're looking at the debate, we're looking at the sentencing, we're looking at the conventions.

These double haters are going to have to start making up their mind, but many of them probably won't.

These double haters are going to have to start making up their mind, but many of them probably won't.

Until we get past Labor Day. So we're going to continue to talk about.

Until we get past Labor Day. So we're going to continue to talk about.

Them until that.

Them until that.

Don Levy, it's great to have you back, Are there, triple haters?

Don Levy, it's great to have you back, Are there, triple haters?

This is Bloomberg.

This is Bloomberg.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Ronoo with a Bloomberg business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Ronoo with a Bloomberg business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Charlie, do you have Alexa in your house? You ask Alexa questions? Or does Alexa spy on you from time to time?

Charlie, do you have Alexa in your house? You ask Alexa questions? Or does Alexa spy on you from time to time?

I do not, But even better than that, my wife has me in the house. She asked questions and I don't always know.

I do not, But even better than that, my wife has me in the house. She asked questions and I don't always know.

Okay, Well, I bet you do more often than Alexa.

Okay, Well, I bet you do more often than Alexa.

Sometimes.

Sometimes.

I always love asking or talking about Alexa on the air because everyone lets me know when they start talking back in their house because the show is on. Hey Alexa, sorry, I had to The Washington Post had questions Kayley lines for Alexa when it came to politics, and I've never talked to Alexa about politics before.

I always love asking or talking about Alexa on the air because everyone lets me know when they start talking back in their house because the show is on. Hey Alexa, sorry, I had to The Washington Post had questions Kayley lines for Alexa when it came to politics, and I've never talked to Alexa about politics before.

I don't know if you have no.

I don't know if you have no.

And couldn't figure out who won the twenty twenty election by asking Alexa.

And couldn't figure out who won the twenty twenty election by asking Alexa.

Yeah, and this is not an Alexa unique problem. They also asked a number of chatbots, including chatbots built by Microsoft and Google. Google's Gemini, when asked who won the twenty twenty election, said I'm still learning how to answer this question. In the meantime, try Google search, Microsoft's co pilots answer looks like I can't respond to this topic. Ye explore Bang's search results.

Yeah, and this is not an Alexa unique problem. They also asked a number of chatbots, including chatbots built by Microsoft and Google. Google's Gemini, when asked who won the twenty twenty election, said I'm still learning how to answer this question. In the meantime, try Google search, Microsoft's co pilots answer looks like I can't respond to this topic. Ye explore Bang's search results.

Do they still kick you back to ban? Since that defeat the purpose?

Do they still kick you back to ban? Since that defeat the purpose?

Yeah, I guess go figure out for yourself who you think.

Yeah, I guess go figure out for yourself who you think.

Right.

Right.

For the record, Coviden did win the twenty twenty election.

For the record, Coviden did win the twenty twenty election.

Right.

Right.

We are now in the twenty twenty four election cycle, and apparently AI still is not able.

We are now in the twenty twenty four election cycle, and apparently AI still is not able.

To still will answer what happened the last go around.

To still will answer what happened the last go around.

I forget predicting it perhaps is.

I forget predicting it perhaps is.

A little bit concerning, so we figured we should bring in an AI expert to discuss how it's factoring into this election cycle, but also our geopolitical relationships is well. Gregory Allen is joining us here in our Washington, d C. Studio from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where he is the director of the Wadwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies. Greg welcome to Bloomberg. Thank you so much for joining us here in studio. We should be concerned about this, right we are heading into another election and AI still can't tell you accurately who won the last one. How is anybody supposed to be relying on it for information.

A little bit concerning, so we figured we should bring in an AI expert to discuss how it's factoring into this election cycle, but also our geopolitical relationships is well. Gregory Allen is joining us here in our Washington, d C. Studio from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where he is the director of the Wadwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies. Greg welcome to Bloomberg. Thank you so much for joining us here in studio. We should be concerned about this, right we are heading into another election and AI still can't tell you accurately who won the last one. How is anybody supposed to be relying on it for information.

Well, in this case, you might want to blame people, not AI, because what you're describing in this story reflects a very conscious choice on the part of these companies for how they want to handle this. Now, think about the difference between an AI tool and a classical search engine. A classical search engine is serving you up results and saying, here's what other people have said on this topic relevant to the keywords that you just gave me, whereas an AI is saying, I Chat GBT or I Alexa give you this answer. So there's a lot more of the company's brand at stake in answering that question. And some companies have made a conscious choice that they just prefer to not weigh in on this twenty twenty election issue, and they'd rather refer you to their search engine where other people can express their opinion.

Well, in this case, you might want to blame people, not AI, because what you're describing in this story reflects a very conscious choice on the part of these companies for how they want to handle this. Now, think about the difference between an AI tool and a classical search engine. A classical search engine is serving you up results and saying, here's what other people have said on this topic relevant to the keywords that you just gave me, whereas an AI is saying, I Chat GBT or I Alexa give you this answer. So there's a lot more of the company's brand at stake in answering that question. And some companies have made a conscious choice that they just prefer to not weigh in on this twenty twenty election issue, and they'd rather refer you to their search engine where other people can express their opinion.

But it also doesn't that challenge the whole ideas I've been hearing that these search engines they don't even matter anymore, and nobody's going to Google. I've got Chat, GPT, I've got my copilot, That's.

But it also doesn't that challenge the whole ideas I've been hearing that these search engines they don't even matter anymore, and nobody's going to Google. I've got Chat, GPT, I've got my copilot, That's.