Economists are questioning Treasury's 'worst case' economic forecast from the Iran war.

It predicts a worst case scenario of inflation hitting 3.7 percent this year - if the conflict persists.

Independent economist Cameron Bagrie says he doesn't think Treasury has properly taken into account businesses feeling the second-hand impact of rising fuel prices.

"If they've got a reason to push up prices under the guise of what's going on in Hormuz around the globe, firms are going to use that excuse and try to jam in some price rises. We've seen it before."

LISTEN ABOVE

Economists are questioning Treasury's 'worst case' economic forecast from the Iran war.
It predicts a worst case scenario of inflation hitting 3.7 percent this year - if the conflict persists.
Independent economist Cameron Bagrie says he doesn't think Treasury has properly taken into account businesses feeling the second-hand impact of rising fuel prices.
"If they've got a reason to push up prices under the guise of what's going on in Hormuz around the globe, firms are going to use that excuse and try to jam in some price rises. We've seen it before."
LISTEN ABOVE

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Looking for actionable business insights all in one place? 
We're here to help you find a way with a curation of the &lsquo;best bits&rsquo; from top business podcasts. 
Save time searching; subscribe to the SME Stream where you can listen to relevant, timely, business-related content today.&nbsp;
&nbsp;

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Cameron Bagrie: independent economist responds to Treasury's 'worst case' economic forecast

As business owners, you know how hard it is keeping up with your business, let alone the news. Join Wilhelmina O'Keeffe each week as she gives you a rundown of the biggest stories that could impact your business, so you can make informed decisions with expert advice. 


This week, GDP is up again but lower than expected - and that’s before the conflict in the middle east began, fuel and food prices keep climbing as the war rages, plus some positive news for retailers with consumers spending more at the checkout.

As business owners, you know how hard it is keeping up with your business, let alone the news. Join Wilhelmina O'Keeffe each week as she gives you a rundown of the biggest stories that could impact your business, so you can make informed decisions with expert advice.&nbsp;
 This week,&nbsp;GDP is up again but lower than expected - and that&rsquo;s before the conflict in the middle east began, fuel and food prices keep climbing as the war rages, plus some positive news for retailers with consumers spending more at the checkout.

The SME Stream Weekly Wrap - 19 March

In Leaders Getting Coffee episode 58, our guest Sharon Zollner, Chief Economist at ANZ Bank.

At a time when the economic recovery in New Zealand is threatened, yet again, by a major international shock, we thought it was worthwhile to host one of the Country’s leading economists on Leaders Getting Coffee. And we weren’t disappointed. This week’s guest is one of the most entertaining economists we could wish to speak to.

A self-confessed geeky kid, and cricket tragic, Sharon Zollner grew up in rural Canterbury in a farming family near Methven. She excelled at school, particularly it seems in English and Mathematics, capabilities which influenced her decision to study English Literature and Economics.

She left Canterbury University with a Masters in Commerce and majors in Economics and English Literature, and headed to the New Zealand Reserve Bank to start what has become an amazingly successful career.

A stint with Norway’s central bank followed, where her work included developing a macro economic model for the Norwegian economy.

Returning to New Zealand, her climb up the ranks of Bank Economists has been rapid and she speaks openly about becoming the Chief Economist at ANZ in 2017, just ahead of a change in government and prior to the disruption created by Covid 19.

On the Leaders Getting Coffee podcast Sharon Zollner speaks to Bruce Cotterill about the current state of the New Zealand economy, which she suggests is more resilient that many of us might expect.

She is also refreshingly open about the impacts of war in the Middle East and the associated panic around oil prices and supplies, and the likely stages that economies will go through as the conflict continues.

As you might expect, Zollner reels off economic terms and statistics in an uncomplicated manner that is easy to understand and entertaining to listen to. Her lessons from Norway are interesting given the similarity of that economy to that of New Zealand, and the differing constraints that the two countries must operate within.

Most importantly, she is positive about the current state of New Zealand, despite the obvious headwinds, and one wishes that her enthusiasm for our future should be contagious.

In Leaders Getting Coffee episode 58, our guest Sharon Zollner, Chief Economist at ANZ Bank.
At a time when the economic recovery in New Zealand is threatened, yet again, by a major international shock, we thought it was worthwhile to host one of the Country&rsquo;s leading economists on Leaders Getting Coffee. And we weren&rsquo;t disappointed. This week&rsquo;s guest is one of the most entertaining economists we could wish to speak to.
A self-confessed geeky kid, and cricket tragic, Sharon Zollner grew up in rural Canterbury in a farming family near Methven. She excelled at school, particularly it seems in English and Mathematics, capabilities which influenced her decision to study English Literature and Economics.
She left Canterbury University with a Masters in Commerce and majors in Economics and English Literature, and headed to the New Zealand Reserve Bank to start what has become an amazingly successful career.
A stint with Norway&rsquo;s central bank followed, where her work included developing a macro economic model for the Norwegian economy.
Returning to New Zealand, her climb up the ranks of Bank Economists has been rapid and she speaks openly about becoming the Chief Economist at ANZ in 2017, just ahead of a change in government and prior to the disruption created by Covid 19.
On the Leaders Getting Coffee podcast Sharon Zollner speaks to Bruce Cotterill about the current state of the New Zealand economy, which she suggests is more resilient that many of us might expect.
She is also refreshingly open about the impacts of war in the Middle East and the associated panic around oil prices and supplies, and the likely stages that economies will go through as the conflict continues.
As you might expect, Zollner reels off economic terms and statistics in an uncomplicated manner that is easy to understand and entertaining to listen to. Her lessons from Norway are interesting given the similarity of that economy to that of New Zealand, and the differing constraints that the two countries must operate within.
Most importantly, she is positive about the current state of New Zealand, despite the obvious headwinds, and one wishes that her enthusiasm for our future should be contagious.

Episode 58: Chief Economist at ANZ, Sharon Zollner

Jarden analyst reviews last night’s GDT auction, up 0.1%, the sixth consecutive rise. While the result remained basically unchanged, “unders and overs” were all over the place. Whole milk powder down 4%, skim milk powder up 5.2%, anhydrous milk fat up 6.4%, butter down 0.9%, and cheddar up 0.1%. 

Jarden analyst reviews last night&rsquo;s GDT auction, up 0.1%, the sixth consecutive rise.&nbsp;While the result remained basically unchanged, &ldquo;unders and overs&rdquo; were all over the place.&nbsp;Whole milk powder down 4%, skim milk powder up 5.2%, anhydrous milk fat up 6.4%, butter down 0.9%, and cheddar up 0.1%.&nbsp;

Cameron Bagrie: independent economist responds to Treasury's 'worst case' economic forecast

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