Paul Murray LiveThe time has come for the RBA to finally cut interest rates, the Prime Minister's leadership slipping through his fingers, and Peter Dutton proposes a two-year foreign investor housing ban.
From the Skying Center. This is Paul Murray Live, Happy hump Day, halfway through the week, on our way to the first weekend for many and the working year of twenty twenty five, the election year. How good is tonight going to be? Broumin Bishop Joehilder Brandy in the man Cave, fighting it out on all issues great and small. Extending from what Sharry just had in her program conversation in and around interest rates. Now, as you know, the inflation figure is heading the direction that the government wants because they want the political uptick of a cut in the reserve bank rate. As you know, we're the lowest inflation rate in the best part of four years. There's an asterisk in all of this. I don't no one really cares about the detail, but I will follow it in the moment or two time. But just in case there was any doubt about where the independent journalists are. They don't view this as anything financial. They view this as exclusively political. This actually happened on the news.
The light at the end of the tunnel for mortgage holders is closer tonight with the release of better than expected inflation data. Financial markets now put the chance of an interest rate cut in February at ninety percent.
After years of hikes, hurting and hip pocket harm, finally a welcome set of numbers.
And you should have seen when the newsreader was handing over to the reporter. Oh, it was excellent and wonderful news, the best political news and government could hope for. I didn't think they were cheering for one side or the other, but of course they all are. You know that for his part, the Treasurer was putting the best spin on Yes, good numbers. No one's going to pretend they're not good numbers.
Underlying inflation is now at its lowest in three years. These are very welcome developments. Inflation is now almost a third of the six point one percent that we inherited when we came to office.
Now I agree with those that say it is time for the Reserve Bank to cut rates. Why not because of the politics, but because we've suffered for long enough. The per capita recession in the country has gone on for the best part of eighteen months. Normal people have been squeezed too tight for too long. Again, I don't keep what the political consequences are, but also a reminder about what inflation numbers that come out each month or each quarter show us it's not just because inflation increases went here and then the increases are not as much. They're still Imagine a continuous line of how much things have gone up, and over the past three years they have gone up well, and truly, you name it, it has gone up. Now to give you an idea that while yes, electricity was low because of the subsidies that are being offered to everyone from the biggest homes in the country to the smallest ones in country towns. And the overall inflation has a two in front of it, the core inflation has a three in front of it. Even when it's a beautiful set of numbers, have a look if you purchase any of these things that are above average inflation, meaning the only reason the average number gets pulled down is because of the artificial things the government has done here. Tobacco year on year, it's up twelve percent. Education, year on year, it's up six and a half percent. Rent year on year, up six percent, alcohol and tobacco insurance all the five in front of it, Fruit and veg well and truly above the average rate, meat and seafood, gas, and of the households, health, non alcoholic beverages, alcohol food products, and of course alcohol and non alcoholic beverages together all above the high number. Now, the reality might be that the Prime Minister thinks that he's going to be onto some sort of a political winning here because of the reserve bank cuts as a result of these numbers. Then the soft landing is on its way. Well, I'll give you the tip. The only people that are having the soft landing are the people who've had enough cushion for the landing. The idea that people who have been under the pump for three years, ye might receive moderate and I repeat moderate relief on one of the things that are not going to go down in prices yet again up but just by a smaller margin next month, the quarter after that, and the quarter after that. Because that's the way that companies work. As soon as they are able to get away with being able to charge a certain amount for whatever reason, it never gets reversed. Prices don't go backwards because the economy gets better. They just assume that you're going to put up with it, and largely people will. The artificial effects are that a government that is about to preside over forty budget deficits into our future that has structurally built, as I explained in great chapter and verse last night, a tax system that is in revolving around sixty three percent of a bottle of booze going to the government, not the company that makes it. The government shows that all of this is about the surface level. All of this is about the pos politics. Of course, the polls at this stage, who knows if they're going to be moving any time soon. Prime Minister would hope they're wrong and will start moving between now and the next federal election. But wasn't power supposed to be down by two hundred and seventy five dollars by twenty twenty five? Is your power down? And yeah, if interest rates go from and there've been thirteen interest rate rises since twenty twenty two, there have been twelve under Elbow's watch. If the pressure on paying off your house goes back to the eleventh or the tenth interest rate rise, is anyone going to be singing hallelujah? As I told you last night, Western Australia average home loan about four hundred thousand dollars. The best part of interest that you pay off in your four hundred thousand dollars is about sixty nine thousand dollars and that has gone up by about half since this government came to power. So let's not muck around you, which is why perhaps the most interesting numbers politically for those of us that talk about politics all an, all night for a living came not from the Australian Bureau Statistics today but the old fashioned bookies. Now, as I've shown since last year, they have put a position where they believe there's going to be a change of government. Well, the odds for the Labour Party blew out even further today Coalition favored at a dollar seventy two according to sports Bet. Remember sports Bet thought that Labor was going to win in twenty nineteen, so you don't bet the house. But still interesting that they are saying that, even on a day of good news and the beginning of potential political recovery and all the rest of it, at the camp Press Gallery is desperate to talk about, they are saying the Coalition forms the next government, exactly which version of it be it majority a minority, will all find out together. They've also shown us some of the seats that might be up for grabs. Now they have listed a whole bunch of seats that are basically safe seats, a marginal seat that Labour currently holds and is about to put Rebecca White, the multiple time loser and Labor leader in Tasmania into well, she would lose seat again. One of the places where the Coalition would be picking up a seat, according to the bookies, that moves them to their overall conclusion would begin in Tasmania. That would mean they would have Bass and Lions on either side, and presumably Bradden might move across, so there could be two seats out of Tasmania. Watch this space.
Now further.
The polls Guardian the Turmal Times today they launched their poll of polls, their analysis of trying to work out exactly what the trends have been over the past couple of years. And as we start to focus on the past couple of months, while the Prime Minister's playing a home game on taxpayer television, the opposition leader was leading an all star squad Leo Finooki Airo and you send a price through Alice Springs. They played a blinder today. Those two women are going to play a major, major role in the upcoming election. Campaign, I promise you that. So let's have a look at what they have been able to conclude about voter support via today the Labour Party is down from the federal election by five point eight percent. The Libs are up by three point six, the Greens are up by almost a point, the others are up by one point eight. If you're doing your mats, there's a fair amount left over. They don't say with the rest that is, whether that's in the don't know basket or it's moving into places like One Nation. I don't know, whether it's moving into independence, I don't know. But another pole showed us what could be a sleeper issue that Peter Dutton should start talking about more. And that's a policy which he announced in the budget in reply speech last year. Now the pole which is very clear here and shows that the Morgan pole actually sorry in two party preferred it too is showing that the Libs are up this time two forty eight. That's on top of fifty one forty nine that was there for Newspole. Again, it's all about the trend. The trend is the friend. That's what we're talking about here. But this sleeper issue that Peter Dutton should be talking about. It is all to do with banning people from overseas being able to buy property in Australia. Now I know for a fact because people have looked me in the eye and said it, that people who have never voted Liberal would plan to vote Liberal if they thought that the Liberal Party had a plan to make it easier for kids to buy a house. Banning foreign buyers would be that now the Greens had their plan. Labor well, it's always taxpayer money. But the idea of reducing the number of people at the auction by banning the overseas buyer is a brilliant idea. I repeat, it ain't a new idea, but it's one that for some reason the Opposition does not focus on as much as they should. He was that announcement back in well last year.
In my twenty two years in Parliament, I've seen good and bad budgets, but the budget handed down on Tuesday night is one of the most irresponsible I've seen. We believe that by rebalancing the migration program and taking decisive action on the housing crisis, the Coalition can free up almost forty thousand additional homes in the first year and well over one hundred thousand homes in the first five years.
Well today, Sidney Monty Herald and The Age Brisbane Times they did a poll about what people thought of this issue, and guess what, they love it. There are very few things that the opposition has on the table outside of a rejection of the government on cost of living, that is as popular as this. Sixty nine percent of people support a two year ban on foreign citizens and temporary residents being able to buy property in Australia. Sixty percent of Labor voters support the idea, fifty eight percent of Green's voters, almost eighty percent of people already planning to vote for the coalition, But the big number is the one on the bottom left hand corner. Seventy three percent, almost three quarters of people in marginal seats put the idea. Now, I'm glad that they want to get Astraightia back on track, and there's all these other things that are around it. And I'm not suggesting that they don't know what they're doing, but I'm saying, if something's got three quarters of the country in marginal seats supporting it, start talking about it, get the ads, go force the issue, remind people that it was your idea. It was your idea first, and even if the Labour Party try to find a way to match it, sing it loud and proud, it is your idea and it is one that is seemingly incredibly popular. In fact, another question asked here is what about making that permanent bugger two years, forty seven percent of people say that should be the permanent law of the land. No temporary residents, no part timers, no overseas buyers, just people that are citizens of this country being able to buy property in this country. This is great because if it removes a couple of people from an auction who with unlimited money due to the exchange rate, or people trying to move money out of other countries, it means that the race to the absolute tippy top in an auction slows down. Now, this policy, which is supported by I repeat seventy three percent of people in marginal electorates, a majority of Labor and Green voters too, is the very policy that lefty commentators like lefty Laura Tingle over there at the ABC. Remember she was also worried that this would produce mass racism. I repeat, sixty nine percent of all voters seventy three percent of people in marginal electorates. The issue alone could rebalance the election.
Y fashion for.
People turning out to try to read a property or in an auction and they look to be different, what do you define different as basically has given.
Them license the views One of the dumbest and nastiest things I have heard out of somebody who supposedly knows better, but remember to criticize her as bad for her and bad for the ABC bugg of that, I'm going to keep reminding you of where they are versus those huge percentages that I've just mentioned. I'm also going to do something that nobody else does, and that is talk about some of the ideas of minor parties. One nation has served up a very interesting idea about taxation now as it currently works. Of course, there is a family income. But if you're in a scenario where one of you is working, one of you is not well, one of you ends up paying the tax, but you end up paying the tax at the tax rate as if you were the only person living in the house. So if you're earning forty five or eighty thousand dollars or one hundred and eighty thousand dollars, while the reality is that your wage is paying for two and maybe two more depending if you've got kids. Well, the idea that comes from one nation, I think is a.
Ripper proposing couples with children could split their taxable income. Pointing to an example of one parent earning one hundred and twenty thousand and one parent staying at home. Currently, they paid twenty nine thousand, four hundred and sixty seven dollars tax, but splitting incomes at sixty thousand dollars each would reduce their tax to nineteen thousand, nine hundred and thirty four brilliant.
The single greatest source of revenue to the federal government is people like those two and also woke about whom they think is staying at home and who they think is working, as the typical example of the modern Australian family. But you get one point. This is a good idea because the reality is when whoever it is, be it mum or dad, husband or wife de facto or de facto, who is the one who was actually earning the money, The reality is that money is not like it is being spent on themselves. They're spending it on everyone else all of the other dependents that are in the house. I think it's a great idea. I'm sorry, I've just had enough of the way that the system works, which is, despite all of the talk about getting tough on companies, they raise more money out of your wages and the tax you pay on your wage than company tax. It's multiple times what they make out of the GST. And don't forget on top of all of that beer, wine, spirits, SIGs, petrol, that's how they make their money. Buger them. Let the people keep their own money because they are having to pay bills higher than ever before. And even if inflation comes down to a one in front of it, it still means that the prices are going up by one percent percent. It's when it's minus minus that the prices are going down. Just because the graph makes it look like the prices are going they're not going down. You know it, I know it. But wait for the bs being spun by the media who desperately want one side to win and one side to have no chain. It's whatsoever bit of breaking news on top of what you've already heard tonight in and around the terror plot in Sydney caravan found in the northwest Peri urban area called Dural in New South Wales. The caravan stacked with enough explosives to blow a forty meter radius in terms of blowing things up. Now you know what the targets were. This is a terror plot. It is targeted of the Jewish community. But let's not say that it's about Andy Semitic. It is a terror plot all right. Now. The breaking news tonight is the owner of the caravan has been arrested. Whether they will be charged and what with I make no assumptions, but we will all find out and hopefully know as the hour rolls on. As you know, the police announced what the potential plan here was. As you heard, the premiere of New South Wales was particularly fired up.
The vast majority of people in New South Wales find this behavior abborn, appalling against all of the values and beliefs that we share in New South Wales, and we will defeat them.
Now. Good on the person who discovered it, Good on the person who reported it, and I share the frustration that many do that The little detail in all of this is that it was first reported ten days ago, meaning the police got this caravan ten days ago. It is only the reporting of Mark Murray the Daily Telegraph that we know about this tonight. But here is the police explanation for how long ago and why we have not been told that this happened nine days ago.
Investigations into over the last ten days have progressed.
However, there is a lot to do.
There are ongoing investigations which need to be conducted. Ideally those investigations conducted with some form of anonymity.
Now I've written the rollercoaster like everyone else and trying to work out exactly where I would land right now in terms of this ten day delay. Now, I have absolutely no problem with a reporter reporting what they know. That's the way that it works, which means it's out and about now. But this show is pro cop I believe, and I give the benefit of the doubt to the police that they were trying to keep it quiet because they were trying to follow the different trails that would result in people being arrested. Now we've seen that some people on the periphery of this were arrested. Now the owner of the caravan has, according to some media outlets, been arrested. I give the benefit of the doubt to the investigators because they literally are trying to find needles inside a dozen haystacks that have been blown around in the wind. It is a tough and difficult job, and just like all canter terrorism efforts, they have to to get it right one hundred percent of the time for people's lives to be saved. Thank goodness, in this case, that remains the case. If there is political leadership or anyone else who tried to silence the story, I'll come down on you like the ton of bricks. But as I said, I've ridden the rollercoaster of emotion. I was ready to rip into everyone for why didn't we hear about this for ten days? I have no problem with the reporting. Once you've got a story, good publish go Ten days is a long period of time for the public not to know what potentially could have happened. But the benefit of the doubt, for me goes to the police. We need them to have the confidence of the community, the confidence of the community, because it is their hard work that will stop this garbage, that will stop this garbage in the supposedly minor forms that we have heard about day in, day out, or the major form. While it's good that the premiere is the one who's beating his chest and telling us it's not going to happen again. It's all happened in his city, on his watch, with his laws. All right, So the benefit of the doubt is being tested. But I give the benefit of the doubt to the people that are doing the hard work. We are pro cop on this show. We're also pro the emergency services, especially those of you who are the volunteers. There's been a bushfire that's been blowing for a while in the past couple of days in rural Victoria. Now, we have followed a story since the bushfires of nineteen sorry of nineteen and twenty, and that was that there are a collection of people inside the volunteer firefighter networks that are saying the trucks that they are being sent out to fight fires like the ones that you have just seen are not up to scratch, that they are unsafe, that they would firstly not do the job and secondly could result in injury or loss of life. Well, today, the fieries have voted to no longer get into the trucks that are not up to scratch. This story has been known for more than five years. The Victorian government has been in place for more than five years. The Victorian government has said that they are doing something about it. But if five years later they have not, then there is a head that has to roll. To all of those that are following this story, well done to everyone who volunteers to fight the fires in very difficult conditions with at times what we learn to be crappy equipment. It is not acceptable. There was problems with the equipment in the act fires, and there are problems with the equipment in Victoria. If there are problems with any other equipment, and I'm not talking about people sending me an email about one hose that doesn't work. If you know in the volunteer services about a crappy truck that the government knows about but it has not done anything about sending an email, because I'm more than happy to shout from the rooftops on your behalf because reasons. The self interest of everyone here is to make sure that every possible piece of equipment can be sent out to fight the fires that will hopefully save lives and save people's properties. Okay. Paulittskynews dot com dot Aupoultskynews dot com dot au to a happy story. Here, what a spectacular story. Peter Bradley is a person who has just won two silver medals in a very specific form of swimming, and it is ice swimming. She was in the two, the four and the fifteen hundreds. This is hardcore swimming. Now she lives in regional Australia, which means she doesn't actually do an awful lot of her training in the ice bards. Instead she's doing it at the family farm. Congratulations to Peter Bradley, her family and who knew the best way to prepare for an international ice swimming event is to muck around in your farm. Damn well played graffiti in Melbourne. We know that it's a problem, one that plenty of people say they're going to do something about. But finally an even stronger idea one where the local mayor our mate Nicholas Reese, would hopefully be together with an incoming Victorian Liberal government. Their plan within twenty four hours, crap that is written, that is not commissioned, that is not planned for one of those cute little supercal lane ways would be cleared off and cleared off within twenty four hours. Here's the opposition.
We will go back to the election with a policy to make sure we have a crime prevention minister, and we'll reinvest in crime prevention here in Victoria. That includes in Victoria Police with the proactive patrols. It includes re establishing a crime prevention unit who can go out there and work within those communities, whether it's graffiti, smaller crime, or engaging with young people who are young offenders.
Earlier on all right, looking forward to Joe Hill, BROBM and Bishop in a couple of minutes before we get there. There though the most American thing I've seen in a little while. As you know, there are raids on illegal immigrants in the United States. They're illegally who have either been charged or served time or are being accused of violent crimes. These are the bad guys who need to go and needed to go yesterday, but many of whom were led into the country because Joe Biden was just trying not to be Donald Trump for a few years. Well. Amazingly, one of the people who was being arrested was caught on camera. The filming of the moment was done by Doctor Phil for the Doctor Phil Show. And Doctor Phil's a hardcore conservative now, but don't you love. This is the ultimate American thing that even something and someone who is about to be deported says, don't I know you from TV?
You've never been deported before, doctor Phil?
How do you know me? No?
I seen a doctor Phil on TV? Yeah?
Yeah, yeah, Well.
There's an example of same. Short of cities, right we go everywhere.
I'm convicted of sex crimes involving children, and he's walking the streets of Chicago.
You been charged with sex crimes with children?
Not really?
I love it? Are you serious? Stuff? And well done that they are getting rid of the garbage when it comes to the worst of the worst of the types of people that after entering the country going on to commit horrific crimes. I know that word's tough for some people to hear, but would you want those people in your country if you have the opportunity to boot them? Well played. That's Chicago. What across in New York City. Christy Nan is the former South Dakota governor. She is the one who yeah, shot her puppy, but she is hardcore and she is in charge of the Department of Handland Security. She went on one of these raids and apparently was even packing. She was fully. She wasn't just the going along. She was ready to go and put the cuffs on someone. This is the type of frontline action, action, action that people voted for and they desperately want. Meantime, lefties aren't coping with all of this. They don't like that they've got a government that's not just going to talk the talk, but they're going to walk the walk and they're going to cuff the bad guys.
When you start having Gestapo raids in America and we start becoming a country where as in East Germany a knock on the door is the thing people are thinking about instead of the brilliant idea they want to go create, then we are moving very very far from his the president worrying about what regular people need.
How was the bloke with the troll doll here staying on television? How would they aland to say this stuff? Oh, it's bashing up on Donald Trump. So we can just pretend that what he's doing is similar to the darkest parts of either communism or the height and the worst and the depths of World War Two. The people being booted out of the country right now are not kids being taken out us classrooms, not the person who's been mowing your lawn, but as you saw, the person who had been charged with child sex offenses. They are the ones that are being picked up and booted out. And the countries that don't want to take them back, like Columbia, will they learn fast. If you don't do it, your economy's going to suffer, so your people, your problems. What a great way to deal with the problem, and I think it is something that anyone in any country would who reasonably cares about their country and wants to know that everyone in their country is a citizen committed to their country, would want things to be Meantime, New rock Star launched overnight. Now I know she's been around for some time, but has this She's just twenty seven, but she's fantastic. This is the brand new press secretary representing the president. Now remember old caree Jean Pierre just lying to people about how amazing Biden was. Deep fakes. The one before that, Jensaki circle around just telling lies. Well, there been replaced with a lady called Caroline Leavitt. I repeat. You can see she's a lady of faith. She's a lady who knows how to fire guns recreationally, and she knows how to drop a few bombs verbally on a press pack that remember covered up for Biden and have told the worst possible lies about incoming future Hitler Trump, have a look at her taking control of a room of people who normally wouldn't even roll their eyes at a person like here her, But now they've got to listen.
While I vow to provide the truth from this podium, we ask that all of you in this room hold yourselves to that same standard. We know for a fact there have been lies that have been pushed by many legacy media outlets in this country about this president, about his family, and we will.
Not accept that.
We will call you out when we feel that your reporting is wrong or there is misinformation about this White House boom.
She's got more.
I would like to point out to each and every one of you that in twenty twenty four, when Joe Biden was in the Oval office or upstairs in the residents sleeping, I'm not so sure egg price has increased sixty five percent in this country.
Badamn, it's on in the middle of the night. I'll ply the hoighlights for you here reach it every night quick break back with my more Joe Hildebrand, Broma Bishop, all the big issues. I can't wait for this one. I have you nice and comfy. Go get a drink. Come back a couple of minutes from now. Want to see Thanks for hanging around. Got plenty to get to tonight. Broma Bishop was here along with the wonderful Joe hilda Brand. They'll agree on everything absolutely.
I already agree with whatever it is. Bronwin is about to side.
Yeah, true, that would be wise if you did.
Yeah. Look, regarding the caravan and the explosives apparently stolen the Morning explosives, they may have been able to create a radius blast radius of forty meters, which is pretty incredible. Peter Dutton has responded online. His focus in part is also into this element of the story, where, among others, Prime Minister and other authorities have known about it for nine days before it was revealed by the Daily Telegraph and confirmed by police this evening. The revelation of an apparent discovery in New South Wales with a caravan laden with explosives intended for a synagogue. According to Peter Dutton, this is a statement is sickening and horrifying it's a grave and sinister escalation in the insidious rise of unchecked antisemitism in our country. Here's the bit. It is incumbent on the federal government and National Security ministers to say when they knew about this Seeckening incident, who is behind it, and what steps they took to protect the Australian Jewish community. The government must commit additional resources, including heightened security at Jewish shynagogues and schools, for reassurance and deterrence. The alternative Prime minister telling us probably what the Prime Minister's going to have to be asked about in the next twenty four hours. So I'm going to start with you first, Braman, As I said, I've written the roller coaster for the past couple of hours of trying to go ten days not telling anyone what's going on, and then logically thinking about it from a police perspective, which is, look, if they want to go and do a press conference to say, you know, bin Laden style, we got them, they do it pretty quickly. Right. We know that when they want to do a certain raid, they invite the media along cameras blazing right. Obviously they made a decision for investigative reasons for the nine days, and I fully support that. But I said ton of bricks is coming down on anyone who told anyone to keep it quiet for any other purpose? Is there a red hearing here in talking about the nine days? Or as Peter Dutton suggests, the federal government authorities have to come forward and say when did you know? And what did you do while you knew?
Of course they do, and that's absolutely the question that will be on everybody these lips, because if the Prime Minister has known all the time, he hasn't made a statement now like Min's mens came out firing, but the Prime Minister, well he probably put out something on the only.
Too was put something yet online?
You but not with the passion nor the commitment to see that something has to be done. Now, I agree with what you said earlier that the police could well have been keeping it quiet so they could follow leeds. But what was the relationship between the New South Wales Police and the Australian Federal Police. Were the Australian Federal Police informing the New South Wales Police?
What was the Prime.
Minister's involvement in that? So all of that is a perfectly legitimate question. We're not talking about firecrackers here. We're talking about, as I understand it, mining equipment explodes.
If that had been stolen and stilled in.
That van, isn't the problem though, Joe, Again, I understand the benefit of the doubt does not excite people in the same way as pointing fingers.
Right.
Yeah, I trust what Mark Murray was saying with Shari before about you know, basically it was his reporting that busted the whole thing open. He has every right to do so if you're a reporter who knows what's going on, great, But presumably part of the delay with police is they I don't know if there's just one caravan or there's a collection of others, so they're trying to follow some leads that said, obviously you can do two things at the same time, right, which is that you cannot tell the potential targets what was coming. But were they fortified. Supposedly there was a list of locations very specific. I don't know now that may well have happened. If it didn't, then that's going to be a whole new arm of this thing. But what's your thoughts on the early hours of this thing also given the police at this stage, I haven't double checked if the story has moved on they have arrested the person who owns the caravan.
Yeah.
I do not think that this is something that should be turned into a political football for obvious reasons. I am not a counter terrorism expert. I do know a couple of counter terrorism experts, and the first thing they will tell you is the last thing on their mind is a press conference or a press release. And the last thing, generally speaking, that most investigators want is to let the public know, unless that is for strategic purposes, i e. They want to suspect to know that the cops are on their trail and for them to get jittery and make mistakes and see what they say so they can move in on them. Otherwise, they generally want to be left to do their own thing unmolested. It would be completely and utterly derelict in their duty if they were to compromise of investigation by crowing about it. The first thing that the politicians would want to do is go public. If it was in Anthony Albanese's political interest that the government was acting, they'd be crowing about busting this just the same way that Donald Trump bragged about Bagdadi, or that Barack Obama did about Bin Laden. Clearly, if the police wanted to go public with this or Felder was ready, not a politician in the land would stand in the way. And so to say, you know who knew what? I think that is a conspiratorial rabbit hole.
Now I'm sorry, I don't that's that's fair as long as it's unknown and suddenly someone comes out and said, well, I think you knew, so tell all. But this has gone a different way. This has been released through the press, through the interview was.
One of the best police reporters.
So he has broken this story.
So then it opens the whole thing up and the question has to be asked, then where is the Prime Minister's role in all of this, particularly as promise.
Did not tip offs if that's what you're asking from.
Suggesting that's what happened at all. But I do want to know what was his involvement in it?
What the pop did he know?
Yes?
And why hasn't he come out and talked about it now as mens has done.
Just let me play a lovely to Cabra Columbo here right, Remember at the time where I remarked, was just the timing and I know there's a Goaldilocks affected this too early, too late, but remember the fire bombing of the child care and the Prime minister was there before nine o'clock basically as the fieries were there and people couldn't quite including myself, work out hang on the timing around this. Just double checked the day that was the twenty first, so that was a day after this actually two days after, because it was the nineteenth when this first discovery had happened. So whether his response is in part a heightened awareness to are we about to hit a new threshold? I don't know. That's not me throwing mutter the Prime minister. It's just me saying the heightened sense of things would be why when you don't know what's going on and you saw the childcare center fire bombing, the premier and the Prime minister there before nine am. Now, generally speaking, Joe, as we remember from old fashioned reporting, generally speaking, incident could happen in the middle of the night, the police wouldn't say anything until roughly before nine am. Then the politicians, if they get involved, it's eleven to one. So that's just explaining the old TikTok of how it generally has worked in the past. Now let's talk about the inflation numbers today. Now the Reserve Bank, it's got to cut. It really does, because we are at this point in time and I don't want to give the Prime Minister a leg up, and I don't think it gives the Prime Minister a leg up. I truly don't. But we're in a per capita recession and have been for eighteen months. With normal people, the amount of money that they are spending on interest rates is crippling and we've seen all of the different consequences that extend through to choices about food, medicine and difficulties of people going back to back to school. Do you think that they're in a position where they're going to be forced to it or are we falling into the political trap of the Prime Minister and his team want to play, which is in the same way interest rates was exclusively the decision of the mustache twirling monocle holding out of touch millionaire Reserve that if Michelle Bullock doesn't then she gets put back into that hole. And basically it's not the government, it's the RBA. The RBA the RBI.
Well, I think it's not to be overlooked that there's the new board in place, and what the dynamics of that are going to be, I don't know. But with it coming down to three point two, obviously that's very close to the three percent.
But but what.
Really counts is what you pay at the supermarket, what you pay for your fuel, what you pay for your electricity, and the big one that hits you whammy is insurance. Now they are all going through the roof services are lying at four point three. So there is an expectation that when interest rates come down, and presumably the banks will follow and there will be a reduction of your your mortgage payments, but they expect other costs to come down too. Clearly, the way electricity is provided or not provided, as the case may be, that's not going to come down.
It's going to continue to rise.
And with regard to what happens at the supermarket, those prices aren't going to collapse either. Vegie might which used to be five dollars will still be seven dollars thirty.
So the expectation I think that people have.
Is that should interest rates come down, then we'll see a lowering of the cost of living. I don't think that's the case. I think there will be a relief of pressure on mortgage and every percentage point that comes down is a relief to people because it really.
Has been hard so and will remain hard.
And I think some of those high employment figures are counting people who have two.
Jobs, not one job.
Yeah, I mean, look, part of what I'm trying to calculate us with literally we speak here, right in December twenty twenty two, insurance when up five points. In December it went up by eight point one points, and in December of last year it went up by five points. All right, So according to my rough number here, it's about eighteen point three percent that it's gone up since the last connection. This is the fundamental political problem for the Prime Minister is that of today's industry might lead to tomorrow's decision, but the lived experience is when it comes to that particular slice of the economy. And I can do the same for you know, milk, bread, eggs, all the rest of it. Right, the reality is the bloke who's still there. How many times have I said, shown you the poster I promised to lower the cost of living reality in insurance eighteen percent.
Yeah, insurance premiums are absolutely shocking. I just got hit by one the other day, and you know, it's the sort of stuff you don't even want to open the email I don't want to open, Like I think that is just shameless price gouging. I do not think it's that's not market forces, that's exploiting. I think the cost of a high inflation environment where I think, well, now's our time to do it. Because let's not forget, insurers have been doing this for decades. This is not something that has just happened over the last eighteen months or two years. This is something that was talked about when John Howard of course very famously said we need to help people pay for private health insurance because the premiums are just far too high. And so this is something that's happening that the insurers have been doing since time immemorial. The three point two figure that you mentioned that strips out those volatile things like power and fuel, and so that is obviously the one the RBA is watching. The headline rate is at two point four, which is all lower than everyone expected, which even then everyone thought would be enough for the RBA to cut rates. So I think by its own measure, the RBA pretty much, based on everything it said today, it pretty much has to cut rates. The thing is that the new board hasn't actually come into.
Bunbo says the worst of it is over or where only the crist he can point to that. But if the reality is that the only way you measure it is by whether the increases have increased or whether the increases are not as big as the previous increases. The reality is the question in the Peter Dunn is going to put is compared to data three.
That's right. But because inflation is so low, it is now below wages growth. So inflation is now about two point four, wage growths about four four point five. So so that means, yes, that that jar of veggie might will not go lower. Okay, get this means it rises.
If you're in the public sector and got a pay it won't come down. Yeah, I haven't had.
But the bottom line is the Treasury came out and said this is what we've been planning for.
We've done all this.
So he's really saying we've been planning to have your cost of living remained stable.
Yeah, I mean in the same way. This is using Charmer's logic against him.
The charmers will go down compared to wait, so wages will rise no higher than inflation.
That is where they are right now.
I know and haven't been.
Literally, this is what we've been planning for.
To try to bring it down plan for the crisis.
First place, he said, this is what we've been planning for, and it's to be better for people.
Will will eventually because while prices will not go.
Down after right, twenty thirty, all right, lots to fire up about God to it. Yeah, will be how many years into forty years of budget deficits. That's their estimate. By the way, quick breakback with more here on Port Murray lied more with these guys. Thank you so much for watching nothing like Joe Hildebrand and Bromma Bishop you in the man Cave. I love when we have a full man cave. Its good to see now the polls they get better. For Peter Dutton, there's a couple of warning signs there, particularly when it comes to the gender breakdowns. But interestingly that gender breakdown also was about eighteen to thirty four year olds, which generally speaking is skewed left. The actual headline of that story was if there is a bunch of blokes that are moving that might nulla FI the overall loss in that area, while thirty five to fifty five and fifty five plus is moving towards the Coalition. So I think some people intentionally at times misinterpreted how all of that worked. But where we sit at the end of January, how do we sit here, Bromwin and what do you think about people's those people telling Newspole the coalition voters. My most likely thing that I think is going to happen. We're going to win a majority. My message to those people is great, settle down, help it happen. That help it happen.
That's it. Dutton has a chance to do it. It's not an easy.
Chance, but he certainly has a chance, and I think he will do it, whether it's in his own right or a minority. It's got to feel about twenty ten about it.
It really does.
And I was pretty confident being in the middle of that campaigning that as I went from seat to seat, you could gauge it.
The fear was there.
There was a response, and if it hadn't been for the two treacherous x Nace. Then Tony Abbott would have been Prime minister then, and he would have been Prime Minister then with a smaller backbench, which actually would have made it easier for it.
Yes, yes, correct than many of the people whose full time job was to pop around at the Ghosts office in the first three years. Joe, you're an albow whisperer. You are at the very least aware of what they felt, of what they felt was working for them three years ago. When you have a look at these numbers again, if you're a betting man, literally the bookies are saying that there would be a change of government. However, sort of the thirty thousand foot political thing is to say, well seventy six without the teals there in your.
Sense, Yeah, I think you can get lost in the weeds on these things and breaking down little demographics or you know, looking at the seat by seats.
I know, thank you, I do it every night.
Very much. I'm with you, and the vibe the momentum is clearly with Peter Dutton. You'd be mad not to recognize that Labor will do a very sort of intensive, sort of tactical seat by seat campaign. I've said I'm not sure if it's ever been published, but it's a contest but sort of strategy and tactics label run a tactical.
About that job.
Of course, of course not, but Dunton will be selling the big picture of this country is broke. We're going backwards. Everything's screwed. And the only way you can fix this to change the government. I think if there is a rate cut, which I'm literally hoping and praying for, I think Albo can scrape home in minority. But you know, have senior labor sort of mastermind said to me just earlier tonight. I think Dunton is right to be favorite. I think he should be favorite. It's it's very hard to see a scenario in which either side gets a majority. That's not saying much.
I mean given and again not enough people talk about the idea that like ten fifteen percent of people see in other another can be independent or one nation or something else. That is, which means preferences matter. If that other preferences the lives, they're going to win an election, right, If they don't, then they're going to be back where they would.
Still goes back to the question of the teals to a degree, and as I say, there's no Blue and Teal, it's all green, and we've got one of those in mckella. We've got a good, good candidate in James Brown, who led the protests against the.
Council is Red Moss.
Seriously, seven people voted for it or eight people voted for it, although eight people need to be voted out. And then I get really bloody angry parton me because.
She's working Blue tonight. She's going no, no, no, she's really bloody angry. Get in there, ripping. Do you want some Bundy to fire it up? Sixty three percent tax? But get in there all right?
Forwards Don Howard because he didn't allow us to have any liberal candidates.
That's right, and this is what we get them. No matter who the Teal's back in government, I think they kind of screwed. Like if they're back in Dutton, everyone, all the greenies, the lefties will run away, They run away back in labor, all that sort of you know, doctor's wives, you know.
That absolutely, you know.
But I'm having conversations in the electrics that I couldn't have had six twelve months ago, where I'll be in a shop and I literally made that statement looking at a leather handbag, and the proprietors say, well, it comes in teal.
I said, oh no, not teal. That's all green, and.
A couple of they all said, yes, no, we don't want any teal, and that wouldn't have happened.
Yes, well, no teal in this jacket. I'm just wearing a green because you know, whatever rock and roll in my tal Thank you do appreciate it. We'll talk about other big issues, including a bit of un banking and the rest of it. And the next time we reconvene. That's our show tonight. We'll see you again tomorrow. You're on Paul Murray Life.
