Experts often build models to help predict how systems will behave. But what happens if, instead of asking the experts to build models, we ask laypeople to simply predict outcomes?

This is what happens in 'prediction markets'. And it turns out that in some situations, the 'wisdom of the crowd' often outperforms experts' models.

To break down what prediction markets are and how they work, we're joined by Rajiv Sethi, Professor of Economics at Barnard College at Columbia University and External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute.



Connect:
Simplifying Complexity on Twitter
Sean Brady on Twitter
Sean Brady on LinkedIn
Brady Heywood website

Experts often build models to help predict how systems will behave. But what happens if, instead of asking the experts to build models, we ask laypeople to simply predict outcomes?
This is what happens in 'prediction markets'. And it turns out that in some situations, the 'wisdom of the crowd' often outperforms experts' models.
To break down what prediction markets are and how they work, we're joined by Rajiv Sethi, Professor of Economics at Barnard College at Columbia University and External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute.
 
Connect:
<ul>
<li aria-level="1"><a href="https://twitter.com/BHComplexity">Simplifying Complexity on Twitter</a></li>
<li aria-level="1"><a href="https://twitter.com/BradyHeywood">Sean Brady on Twitter</a></li>
<li aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/sean-brady-11a95427/">Sean Brady on LinkedIn</a></li>
<li aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.bradyheywood.com.au/">Brady Heywood website</a></li>
</ul>

Wavelength Creative

Simplifying Complexity is a podcast about the underlying principles of complex systems. On the show, we explore the key concepts of complexity science with expert minds from around the world. Each episode focuses on an interview where we break down a specific concept in detail.

Simplifying Complexity is a podcast about the underlying principles of complex systems. On the show, we explore the key concepts of complexity science with expert minds from around the world. Each episode focuses on an interview where we break down a specific concept in detail.

Simplifying Complexity is a podcast about the underlying principles of complex systems.

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