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This is Sharp Money with Patrick Maher on VSIND the Sports Betty Network.
Sharp Money the Sports Betty Network. It's a big day. That's the big guy the d downtown Las Vegas. I'm Patrick maher live from Los Angeles. As we welcome you in. If there's a little extra energy today, it is warranted. One more sleep, all right. And it's funny because I was at the local coffee shop here. I saw two different dudes fan drafting at six thirty am on their computers, like get away from the family, got to lock down the team, got a lockdown the squad for this year, and it just feels good as we're going to turn the page, get into that twenty four to twenty five NFL season coming up tomorrow night, and we've got a little bit of that three point boogie going on the three point dance. Remember, you're constantly hunting. Let's just focus on the NFL for a second, constantly hunting those key numbers. So it's very simple to remember you go three, seven, six, fourteen, ten, But three is the most important margin of victory in the NFL. And frankly, whether it's Thursday night in Kansas City or Friday night, lights in Sal Paulo, Brazil. That three is key. So again, if you want to lay it with Kansas City, you can lay the two and a half. If you want to take it like the big guy in Baltimore, you can take the three. Though we are focusing on the total. We'll get to that coming up in just a bit. He looks nervous today, a little concerned about him before I go to him Green Bay and Philadelphia. This number is pretty interesting because the threes have evaporated, so we are now down to Philly laying two and a half. I think the wrong team might be favored here to start the year. I think this is a pick em on a neutral court. Of course in Brazil now it's not neutral. You know what, I'll leave that alone. I want to go to Brazil. I'd like to go to South America, whether it's for a football game or just to site. See you understand what I'm saying. So two two and a half, mostly two and a half's in the market for the Eagles right now, over love and a very talented young team and the Green Bay Packers. What's coming up on today's program. Let's go ahead and show who's to come. We've got an all star lineup today. We're going to do some of these guys a little early in the week.
It's okay, big guy, we don't have it. It's okay, don't stress.
Aaron Halterman is going to join us, one of our partners, Josh Applebaum, a long time mainstay VISA insider, and Mike Samich. And I should give Stormy and Samach some credit here. As I was getting set up, you know, with Shawn and Laiber and the closet there, I saw Samage doing a great breakdown of chalk and they're breaking down some you know, sports betting part lancer terms and he was talking about chalk and tying it back to, of course where chalk originated with the horse races. So I enjoyed that conversation very much. What are we going to do outside of Halterman, apple Bomb and Samich, Well, we're to have a little fun. First off, you should know that Jamar Chase is in uniform today. Duh. I mean this is it's only going to become accelerated literally the next going into the year. NFL wise, you're gonna have double the amount that held in this year because the template continues to get reinforced, and all you have to do is chill. Players hate two things in the NFL franchise tags in training camp. So if you're a Trent Williams and you're on your way to Canton already, why the hell would you want to practice in the heat. If you're Brandon Ayuk and you look around and you see people getting paid, why wouldn't you use leverage? And if you're Jamar Chase and arguably the third best wide receiver, I think most would say you could have a conversation about Hill and Jefferson then Chase for me, along with DeVante Adams and some others would be three. Jamar Chase is like, yeah, I'm watching all of these dudes, including Jalen wat Oppo Hill get paid. Bookoo, give me the cash, show me the money. You understand, Jerry. So that's what happened, and it looks like Jamar Chase is going to give it a go. That would be my intention or their intention when New England visits Cincinnati on Sunday. So, Kyle Pitts, I should let you know that Kyle Pitts is dealing with a hamstring. So take that INCIDENTE for Atlanta's opener, and we're gonna talk about Caleb Williams his open at home against the Titans, and what's happened since the merger with the number one overall pick being a quarterback, what they've done ats and straight up in that first game. Okay, so rookie quarterbacks, of course, I have. We've got a lot for you as far as futures coming up in today's program as well, I've got five. I've got my five season win totals best bets. As I was going over them this morning with the Big Guy, I started to realize these are pretty unpopular. I think when we unveil the list. I'm not pretending like a mister contrarian, but these aren't I don't think these are common. As far as if you go to the NFL betting guide over at vson dot com. I think I've got some surprises here. I've got some alt lines as well with some plus juice, so we'll have some fun with that. The Big Guy went nuts with his futures, whether it be Super Bowl Division Offensive Player of the Year MVP, and I know he's added more to the mix, so we'll get into that as well. Okay, so we set the table, and let's set a bigger table because my man likes to eat and say hi to Dustin Sweedelson's cracking big guy.
Ah yeah, Well, we're looking at twenty bets already for this upcoming weekend between college and the NFL, so things are getting a bit out of control.
I will admit that.
You mentioned the wrong team being favored though on Friday with the Eagles and Packers, and I think there's no doubt if both teams play to their top end ability, the Eagles are the better team, but it's Brazil, so it feels like a little more bottom end action, if you know what I mean.
I do.
I do know what you mean, and for a multitude of reasons, I'm not going to have you elucidate. So a nice little start to the show for the big guy that should carry him for the next two hours. Okay, I will say we've been talking about the new three point zero of vsin with the new lineup, which is awesome. I was texting and I think it's been announced by our good buddy Bill ad in the daily newsletter The Man of Mystery. You can go sign up right now Vson dot com. All you do is enter your email address. I Bill knows that I'm a huge fan of the newsletter because it's just like, hey, you just poured your coffee, why don't you set the betting template for the day, the menu for the day. And he mentioned that one of our old partners and coworkers, Adam Shine, is going to be writing two articles a week. He used to write for NFL dot com, and I think most know by now he's going to be joining us on the air. I was texting with Shine earlier to congratulate him, and I will tell you this. He used one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine ten. Now that's him. Okay, you're gonna notice with the energy in Adam Shine, you know mad Dog Sports RADIOCBS, NFL dot Com. He used it looks close to twelve exclamation points to tell me he's excited. So that that checks, right, that kind of checks.
Yeah, who's better than you, Patty?
Yeah? He would he gets stuck on things, Shine. So what would happen is we'd see each other for all those years in the hallways in New York City at Serius XM, and all he would say is he points to me to say, how about those lions? Well, the curious thing about somebody asking me for forty plus years about the Lions is it always ended with a chuckle. And seemingly now the Lions are not just the talk of the NFC, but most are like, I'm gonna get crazy this year and have the Lions in the super Bowl. That's not crazy. Last year would have been crazy.
Words I never thought I'd say out loud.
I couldn't get down on the Lions to win the Super Bowl because the number.
Was too short. I just can't have funny. I can't do ten to one.
I can't do that.
And that's funny how that works. Isn't that funny how it works? Just as an aside, And then we'll come back and talk about tomorrow's Thursday Night till to open up the season in Kansas City with Baltimore in town. How about the idea your New York Football Giants had the hard knocks? Now, I think did they do the traditional hard knocks, because now there's in season hard knocks, which I think is a little bit more interesting.
They were preseason hard knocks, and they were definitely re enacting things that already happened, and people were getting annoyed thinking that they were real.
Now, if you're looking at the most losses this year, I would say the New England Patriots are one with a bullet and then you start to have the conversation after that, most are talking about the Giants like there aren't a lot of expectations for the Football Giants this year. I also believe that when you have this hard knock situation, I think sometimes it can expose the brain trust. And Joe Shine no relation to Adam. Joe Shine is the general manager of the Giants. I think he should stop everything. He needs to stop talking. He needs to stop putting down his quarterback. He needs to stop thirstying over Jaydon Daniels and just take it easy. Because he said to Ryan Poles, now, the expectations are off the charts for the Bears this year. A number one quarterback has never walked into a situation like Caleb Williams is going to walk into. I think Kayleb Williams is going to be special. I think the market's overrating the Bears this year in division and conference and even win total. Having said that, I think they're going to be very good. I think the defense is very good. But Joe Shine said to Ryan Poles quote, it's got to be nice to be scouting quarterback.
Joe.
You chose to re up with Daniel Jones you to year what?
Yeah, I'm agreeing with you.
I'm shaking my head.
I'm completely flabbergasted by what the Maras and the Tishes are doing with this organization right now. The reason is that's a buttoned up organization. Okay, most would agree they've got day ball and year two. Take it easy. They've got day ball in year two, undressing the quarterback and the team and losing his freaking mind on the sidelines. Now, whether or not he's going to be a good coach, I don't know your one wild card and now he's got his general man. Tell me how usurping the dude that you chose to extend in any way that confidence is key coming off the injury. Tell me how the general manager and coach constantly discussing other quarterbacks can be helpful for a guy that needs to prove himself this year. And Daniel Jones, I'm begging you to do so. At six and a half on the season win total for the Giants, please explain yourself.
He could have been scouting quarterbacks the last two years, but he chose to sign Daniel Jones to the contrary. That's on you, bro. You decide to latch yourself to Daniel Jones, that's the mistake that could cost you your job. And I'd actually argue with you. I don't think the Maras run a very good organization. I think there's been a lot.
But let me just say this to follow up. I think Malik Neighbors is gonna be great. Some would say it's a rookie move by a general manager just to take the flashy toy on the board. I'm just saying, is this Dave Gettleman three point zero like vs? I mean, what is happening here?
People?
Three is the key Tomorrow night in Kansas City, We're back sharp money.
This is sharp money. But Patrick maher on Vson the Sports Betting Network, Big.
Shart Money vs D Sports Betting Network. As we welcome you back on Patrick maher Live from Los Angeles, Dustin Sweedelson hanging out at the D in downtown Las Vegas over the weekend. Our next guest, he went five and oh for Vson prosover at Vson dot com. And the best bets is that good Dustin Sweelson to go five and oh.
And I believe there were a few plus money prices in there.
Dogs.
I mean he just he. The word value gets thrown around a lot. Aaron Halterman is.
Value, and we value him as a contributor here on Chart Money. And we say hi to Aeron Halterman Racing Dudes dot Com at Racing Underscore Dudes, Progressive Guest Line brings you, mister Halterman, of course, dudes who bet on sports, and a nice little five and oh weekend for you. Thank you from all the listeners and Vson pros.
It was a good weekend. Yeah, hopefully we don't blow it this weekend. We've got more plays coming up, so hopefully hopefully we keep it going.
But yeah, look it was It's nice to get out to good starting college football.
I really felt like I was really prepared hard this offseason for this first couple of weeks because I've been getting beat the last couple of years in these first couple of weeks, so to have that success early is nice.
Just hope it doesn't fall apart, and that's what we're gonna try.
To do a little humility, you know how he does dust and he comes in with the five and zero sweep of the board over the weekend, comes in with the humility makes you and I look bad more in particular you because all you do is brag.
Well, yeah, but I don't talk about the bad moments. Why would I talk about the bad moments? They just getting away the good moments.
It helps you keep a job. Or so Baylor and Utah, we should start there. Three twenty nine Baylor Utah. Now you laid the best number, because this number did drop down to fourteen. Now Utah obviously laying it, it has jumped up to fourteen and a half. I am seeing fifteen's in the market right now. Let me just see where this opens. So this open is high as seventeen. I think a couple shops open seventeen and a half. So Baylor at Utah open seventeen and just yesterday got hit down to fourteen. That's when you bet it. It is up to fourteen and a half, mister Halterman.
Yeah, Utah is a.
Weird team so far early as far as how they're being valued, guys, I thought it was weird.
They were like thirty five point favorites, thirty four and a half.
I think last weekend against Southern Utah, which I thought was crazy, and now we're at fourteen against Baylor. I just think this Utah team is much better than Baylor first game of the Big Twelve, so that'll be a big deal as well.
They're at home. I think they'll be jacked up for this one.
And I watched every play of that Utah game because I bet him last week and I saw what I wanted to see out of Cam Rising. I think the biggest thing with him, you want to see how he was moving around.
He kind of just wanted to see overall how.
He looked coming off that year long injury last season.
He looked fine.
And look this Utah defense, that's one thing we didn't have any question marks about. We knew they would be really good. You know, they should have been good Week one, and they were. I think they'll be very good against Baylor. Tayler's got a young offense. I think Utah will swarm them. I think they'll hold them down and then it's just a matter of can Cam Rising kind of get that offense going enough to cover You know this fourteen point spread or fourteen and a half you're betting it now. I like both numbers. I think Utah wins this one pretty comfortably. And again they're kind of my ride or die. I really like Utah all year, so it just makes sense to play them at this spot for sure.
Yeah, and you know with Kouthi back, they're two best players on offense back from injury that you mentioned the Big twelve, and they're a much different team in Salt Lake. That's when you want to back this Utah team and winning him. Next up, Oklahoma State is hosting Arkansas, So let's talk about the number here. So opened as high as nine and a half and has been bet down to seven and a half. Oklahoma State lay in the seven and a half with Arkansas come into town.
This is an interesting game.
You know, they haven't played in a long time, but this used to be a big rivalry and I think it'll develop into one with these two schools.
They're very close together.
You know, you looked at last week Oklahoma State hosted South Dakota State, who was a you know, an FCS school, but they were on a long winning streak, a very good team, and they were nine and a half point favorites, just nine and a half point favorites Oklahoma State was they took care of business.
They dominated that game.
I didn't think it would be, you know, that close of a game, but I also didn't think they'd win forty four to twenty, so that was kind of impressive. They get Arkansas in here this weekend. Now, look, I think Arkansas.
Is going to be better guys.
I do, but I don't think they're quite at the level of Oklahoma State just yet. I think Olklahoma State has a program a couple of years ahead of them. Arkansas's got a lot of experienced players, but not experienced together there at Arkansas a lot of transfer portal guys. So I kind of think this is an early season game where you can jump on the Cowboys in Stillwater.
They're another team.
You mentioned Utah being good at home, Oklahoma State very good at home as well, So with the line coming down to seven and a half, I thought it made a lot of sense. I just think that Olklahoma State's got enough experience to really kind of jump on a kind of a younger Arkansas team early.
And Taylor Green for Arkansas quarterback, I'm.
Just not completely sold on him yet either, So I just think enough pieces are there that the nones are there Oklahoma State. We know what they are. So I think this line being just seven and a half, I'm gonna lay it with the cowboys.
You know what's crazy about Arkansas and Dustin. I think maybe we were on the air on the radio when this was all going down. But they say time time heals all wounds. Well, when Bobby Petrino was coaching at Arkansas, he was like, he told his wife, I'll be right back right then he hopped on the crotch rocket and went and picked up his assistant and then and then spilled it with her with shorty on the back, got fired at the neck, brace on at the presser, and went on to do a couple of things. Now he's back running the offense at Arkansas, big guy. The sec just is different. You're gonna hire homeboy back like that is you really want a good offense?
Yeah, it does feel.
A bit like inbreeding, Like you left as the man in charge, now you're back in a lesser role. It's a weird relationship now. But here's the he know's offense. But I don't know what Arkansas has. It's a weird transitional year for them and Sam Pittman's kind of all in.
He has to like prove it to keep his job.
Yeah, Petrino knows offense, he should know defensive driving a little bit better, stay on the whip, bro. All right, let's continue with mister Halterman. Yeah, there you go, big guy Dustin for those on the radio, was pretending he was riding a motorcycle. That is the contributions I'm looking for. Okay, let's see he's a host. He host mariners A's first five under four. Halterman.
Yeah, I mean self explanatory here with this when both teams really can't hit.
Seattle definitely can't. Oakland really can't either.
I do want to shout out Oakland for a second though, guys for his as everybody thought they would be in their situation that they're in.
They're a competitive team. I mean, they're not great.
They're sixty one and seventy eight and mostly because they can't hit.
But give them credit.
Yeah, they've come out and they've played well really the second half of the season.
But anyway back to this under four.
In the first five, you've got Kirby on the mound for Seattle. You've got jp Sis on the Mound for Oakland, both very reliable pitchers, especially in the first five for JP series, he is very good. I think this has got two to one, three to two written all over it talking about the full game, So I'll take the under four for the first five.
It's just one of those things. Every way you handicap it, every way you look.
At it, it just feels like this is gonna be a low scoring game tonight.
So I think the first five makes sense.
Okay, death taxes and Halterman betting the Snakes laying a run and a half. That's really what it comes down to. Diamondbacks at the Giants. You're gonna lay the run and a half with the Snakes.
I mean, would it have been right if I came on here and didn't mention this. You have to bet the Diamondbacks if you're me, it's my thing. Now. Look, they kind of I think came down.
To earth a little bit, losing three out of four to the Dodgers over the weekend.
I think they went into that thinking.
Okay, maybe we can make up ground here on them obviously in the division, and it didn't go that well. They did bounce back though they got to win last night in San Francisco and now tonight at plus one twenty five, laying a run and a half, I think it makes sense. Gallon on the mound obviously one of their better pitchers, so obviously that's going to be in the favor of kind of holding down this Giants offense. It's it's hit and miss for sure, so I think Gallen will have success. And then Hayden Burns Song on the mound against against the Diamondbacks.
I mean, that seems like a total mismatch to me.
And that's the thing.
You know, we talked about the Diamondbacks early they just weren't really hitting. Guys were in slumps. That's how they've come out of this, guys. I mean, the pitching's always kind of been decent there, but they kind of went in a slump hitting early, and now they've come out of it. So I'm looking at it and going, look, if we can get five or six runs tonight, we should cover this at run and a half and again plus money and plus one twenty five. It just made too much sense to me. So yeah, listen, I gotta stay on brand, guys. I gotta take the Diamondbacks. They're my guys.
Hopefully they can keep it going get another win today.
Nothing if not consistent. Aaron Haltman, Hey, big guy, I'm just counting up Aaron's place for today. He's got four of them. We're gonna get those on the sheet.
I'm looking. I believe they're all now up there and good to go.
Yeah.
While he was talking, one, two, three, four.
Did you have anything to say to Aaron before we say goodbye?
Aaron?
If the Orioles play the Diamondbacks in the World Series, who are you rooting for?
Ooh wow, what a great question.
The Diamondbacks because I have a lot more money on the Diamondbacks. That would Did you get thirty to one on the Snakes forty forty? Yeah, so, I mean, I there, it'd be like the Panthers. You know, we will become Diamondbacks. Bring out mountin Rushmore. We'll be back, but Diamondbacks instead of Panthers.
Your your Chiefs tomorrow night.
What's up?
It's the regular season, right, so who knows what will happen with the Chiefs. They were very bad in the regular season last year.
But look, they should be better, guys, they really should. They've done things to make the offense better. I will take the Chiefs tomorrow. I will take the chiefs Lamar in Kansas City.
Give me, gimme the Chiefs.
Okay, lay the two and a half. You can find that number and again, if you like the Ravens, take the three. Aaron Altman. As always, you are the best. Racing Dudes dot Com a lot of horse racing this weekend. Head over to Racing dudes dot com. Thank you are appreciate it.
All right, thanks guys.
When we come back, the big guy got mad because I was talking about those season win totals, So we'll get to his futures. Next, Sharp Money.
This is Sharp Money with Patrick maher on fees End the Sports Betty Network.
Sharp Money Vsin d Sports Betty Network, Dustin Sweedelson. I'm Patrick maher. Our next guess is the author of the Everything Guide to Sports Betty. You can find it on Amazon, where we get your books. He is the host of All Systems Go, which is a podcast where you can find wherever you get your podcasts. And by the way, All Systems Go is just that for the football season. Josh Applebaum is a Vson Betty analyst and you can find him on Twitter at josh Underscore Insights. Josh, a man that dominates the fall is back how we feel in today.
We're feeling great, Patrick dustin Grade two with you, and I'm not a band any ice coffee. I'm a new Englander still going dunks like ice coffee or the Bitter End.
Patrick.
But I'm super excited because football season is finally here, and I want to talk to you guys about kind of my favorite system matches for Week one in particular. Now, I think it's important here to kind of get a blueprint of how you're going to attack the NFL season, and then we'll talk about system matches.
I got a bunch of dogs that are kind of lighting up the board.
Right now with some good value and then a couple favorites if you want to fade, some trendy dogs. So let's start off with just kind of a way to attack NFL in general and especially Week one. NFL is the most heavily betsport by far. If anyone's starting new in betting, they're probably gonna go with the NFL, highest ticket counts, highest handles. We have more states legalizing, up to nearly forty states overall, so it's a huge public sport. So therefore just taking a basic contrarian angle can really pay off. So that's when you're using our vs dot com bet splits coming directly from DraftKings, looking at that spread percentage column. Anything less than fifty percent, less than forty percent, those are the games that I get excited about. But here's where it gets good, Patrick. In the thought process of going contrarian, you gotta remember public love's favorites. If they're gonna bet bet a game, they're going to risk their money on a team that they think is the safer play, the team that's expected to win. But the beauty of football, we don't care about who wins. We only care about who covers. So dogs are something I lean on all year round. But in particular Week one dogs since twenty sixteen, big sample size throughout the regular season, they're one thousand, fifty six and nine eighty seven against the spread. That's fifty two percent ets, Patrick, so it's pretty much break even. But here's the crazy stat in Week one, Week one dog since twenty sixteen, seventy one and fifty three against the spread fifty seven percent. So just by going contrarian and taking dogs in week one, we see them bark five percent louder in their opening game versus the rest of the regular season. Now, if you want to take a step further, I like layering on more filters. So here's where it gets even better. Just isolating road dogs in week one because public love's betting favorites, loves betting home teams. Week one road dogs forty six and twenty nine against the spread sixty one percent in week one since twenty sixteen divisional dogs patrick two teams from the same division Week one take the dog thirty and fourteen ats sixty eight percent against the spread. And then also buying law on dogs who didn't make the playoffs last year because the public remembers them as being a bad team. There's no way I can bet on them. But Week one dogs who missed the play off the previous year nearly sixty percent against the spread. So that's our starting point. Dogs Week one dogs, road dogs, dogs missed the postseason, divisional dogs.
I mean, that is just a it's not just the information. Even Dust was shaking his head. Yes, that layout and I haven't heard that on the network at all. Not disparage to anybody, but just it's very important to come in with. I guess I would say it's you know, a system, and that's what you base your betting on. Systems in the market, and it's just when you have the outline of a system, then you can start to parse out the individual game. So tremendous job, and tremendous with the week one discrepancy as compared to from sixteen to now dogs in total. So let's talk about some of those. We'll go with the Panthers. We had our buddy Mike Randall on yesterday. He likes Carolina on the money line in New Orleans. You get the four, which is a good number here.
Yeah, so I'm with them.
I don't know if I'm bold enough to go moneyline here, but I'll take the points. Because you mentioned in Patrick, I think a lot of betters when he gets to week one, they immediately go to just the teams they want to bet on versus kind of this process, which is, hey, let's identify our system matches and then let's see which teams fit that criteria. So the Panthers are really kind of near number one system match this week. Now look at number one the system matches that they are popping right now.
Number one will be a road dog.
Those road dogs sixty one percent against the spread week one, the kicker the one we love Divisional dogs, both teams here from the same division sixty eight percent against the spread week one since twenty sixteen. But then I don't just blindly play system as Patrick. I want to at least look at the market and then stay true to my you know, sharp reverse line moves going contrarian. And that's where I like even Carolina even more here because if you look at the betting market, public's on the Saints, Saints are getting upwards of sixty percent of spread bets. Yet the Saints open minus five, they're down to minus four. So if majority of public betters nearly two thirds are going with the Saints, why is the line falling away from News toward Carolina. Tells me Carolina is getting smart money here. Another thing I love about this one is a bet verse dollar discrepancy. Panther's only getting around forty percent of bets, but eighty percent of spread dollars, Patrick and Dustin, that is a huge low Bett's hired dollars discrepancy. You would have loved to gotten a four here. You can wait it out. Maybe there's buyback or sorry to four and a half with the hook. I don't know if that's gonna happen. Maybe it even gets down to three and a half. But really, to me, if you're playing systems playing the market Carolina, you gotta like them this week plus four.
If this keeps up, Apple Bomb's gonna hit for the cycle in this segment. Let's keep it going, so Vegas at the Chargers. You're catching three with Vegas now. When the Minshew news was announced, it did briefly touch four back down by back on the Raiders down to three and a half, and now it's pretty much three. I'm gonna see if I can find a three and a half, Josh, maybe you can nope three across the board in the market with the Chargers lane At hosting the Raiders.
Yes, this would be a play you mentioned in Patrick to root for the Raiders in this spot have some line movement toward not gonna call them Oakland Vegas now now obviously, but you mentioned it. They were as high as plus four plus three and a half. Now they're down to three.
Now.
You raised the good point always think about getting hooks key numbers on or off. I'm seeing a couple of books that are juiced up toward LA minus three at minus one fifteen. So if you wait it out, you may be able to find the hook. And remember we have Harbaugh, we have Herbert, you know, kind of a flashy team. That's the public's kind of rooting for. I think Vegas maybe lost their sparkle a little bit, but this would be a chance to go the other way with the Raiders because nearly two thirds of bets again are going with the Chargers in this spot. Yet we've seen this line move towards the Las Vegas Raiders, and they would match road Dog Divisional Dog Dog who missed the postseason the previous year. So again, and I think this is another question, like we're talking on a Wednesday, you want to identify your system matches, then ask yourself, should I bet it now because I'm getting the best of it, or should I wait try.
To get a better number.
This is one where I've identified and we've identified the Raiders. But let's see we can get that three and a half. We can get it. I'll take the hook there with Vegas.
Tremendous, Josh, let's keep it going. I don't see your beloved New England Patriots as a dog this week, which is okay, well I'm good with it. Let's take the Colts here, and you've got the Colts. What's your number right now on the Colts?
Yeah, So if you're gonna have the Colts, I mean this is number one. You're your number one bet against the public play. You're getting two and a half, getting even three now, and this isn't really a sharp bet like when I'm betting NFL. I want to you know, first be contrarion against the public, against the drunk guys at the bar, but have some element of smart money. This would just be a pure contrarian play taking the Colts because as of right now, eighty three percent of spread bets are going Texans.
But remember this game opened a lot lower.
I think it was like minus two, you know, closer to like minus one and a half even at the opener.
So this would be one of those inflated lines.
So buying low on the Colts at plus three, you know, if you're at a two and a half right now, let's start thinking about teasers again. Two and a half up to eight and a half, that could make a lot of sense, But this is your number one conririon play. Only seventeen percent of spread bets are taking the Colts here, but they would match with a divisional dog as well as a kind of just straight up contrarian bet against the public place. So tease them up, wait for a three. But it's either Colt or nothing for me in that one.
And if you don't have multiple outs and you've got Indianapolis catching two and a half, what's Josh saying. He's going to tease them up. He's going to go through three key number, he's going to go through six key number, and he's going to go through seven key number. Good job by Josh there, Titans. This is one the big guy likes as well. You're catching four at the Bears.
Yeah, I'm glad I'm with Dustin in this one because Titans to me are popping as well. We've seen line movement toward Tennessee this game open Chicago, you know, as high as minus five minus four and a half. It's now down to four, even though currently you're getting upwards of sixty two percent of bets here going with the Bears. Also, keep an eye on like public perception over the summer because Bears are on the rise. I do like their over eight and a half win total, but Caleb Williams a dunze Keenan Allen, they're on hard knocks. Public's gonna kind of, you know, apply that bias into their handicap and say, hey, I'll take Bears at home all day. But the going away from Chicago toward Tennessee, Tennessee would match that road dog system match. Dog who missed the postseason system match. I don't know if you're gonna be able to get Tennessee four and a half anymore.
Patrick.
In fact, I see a couple of books. You're looking at the board right now, where mayven get down to three and a half because it's juiced up toward Tennessee. So again i'd be looking at grabbing the points of the Titans.
Here, okay, and then we have one more dog for Josh's favorites. I'm gonna encourage you to go over to Vison dot com listen to All Systems Go. Which is the pod you got the Commanders. I'm high on the Commanders this year. They are let me just fine Washington here on my board to get the number. Josh, what do you have as far as your commander number pretty much.
Key number of three. There's some three and a half's out there. Yeah, if you can find the hook, I mean that's going to be the play here. And again, pay attention to the jeuwe I think a lot of better just say, oh, that's the price I gotta pay. I'd rather something obviously, like a plus one hundred over a minus one twenty, but use the juice to her advantage. There's no choice. We gotta pay it. But at least think about which sides being juiced up. That's gonna tell you which side the next line move might go towards. So the fact that we have commanders really juiced up with the hook three and a half minus one twenty tells us it could be getting down to three. Remember this thing opened like four and the lines going toward the commanders, even though the Bucks are the public play getting around sixty one percent of spreadbats.
Now.
I don't love backing rookie QBS Jayden Daniels in this spot, but again, if you're gonna go conchrarion, if you're gonna take an approach here to back dogs, week one is your best time to do it. And if we can basically combine our system matches with what the market's telling us, that's when I get excited and have a little confidence here.
So really, Washington to me is on my radar. Here again in the hook.
Now, there is a rumor that, you know, it's gonna be a long year for the Patriots. We're not breaking any news there. There is a rumor that you and your squad could be shown up to Gillette this year with paper bags over your dome piece. Can we confirm?
Yeah, pat you can confirm that. Me and my buddies in the group chat, I've talked about it. I mean, I am holding an under four and a half win total on the Patriots. I just love the destruction and thought process of what if the Patriots beat the Bengals this weekend, because that's your number one survivor pick. Everyone's playing the Bengals. I actually would enjoy that. I think it'd be hilarious if the Pats won that game. But yeah, Robert Kraft, might you know, tell us to you know, take the paper bags off and go home.
We might get arrested. But if it gets that bad, I think.
We're gonna get very cheap seats and we're gonna wear paper bags for Patriots fans this year.
Well, as Dustin would say, if you get in trouble, you can always massage your way out of it, you know what I mean. All systems Go is the podcast Vson Betting Analysts. You can read them over at vson dot com. Josh Applebaum, you're the best, Josh. Thank you, Thanks so much, guys rookie quarterbacks.
Next, this is Sharp.
Money but Patrick maher on Vson the Sports Betting Network.
To make the better Dustin Sweetelsen, as Larry, our engineer, was counting us in. He was chuckling because he thought what you said was funny. That should make this segment very productive. As we welcome you back Sharp Money Vsin the Sports Betting Network of course Vson three point zero. As we head into the new NFL season, the lineup is freaking awesome. Surprises to come. Told you I was texting with our newest edition and Adam Shine. He hit me with ten exclamation points to enforce his excitement. You know, I was watching Money Moves a little earlier today with Stormy and I got to tell you. Samich filled in yesterday. He was on Money Moves today, and I believe he's on tomorrow and he was killing it and with that he's triple dipping as we welcome him on a Wednesday program. And in particular, I want to just give you props as you were going through some of the betting verbiage and some of the terms, which I liked the idea for new betters to kind of understand and conceptualize what some of these names or terms that are intimidating might mean. And nobody was more perfect to have on when talking about chalk today as it ties back to horse racing. So I enjoyed that, Samo.
Yeah, I think it's a fun little segment that they're doing over on Money Moves, and I'm excited that I was there the day they referenced chalk. For those who don't know, chalk is a horse racing term. That's where it came from back in the day when there weren't electronic boards and they had to actually use chalkboards erase tracks. The favorite will get bet so much they'd have to erase that number and rewrite the new odds. Erase it, rewrite the new odds that it became the favorite was being called the chalk because of how many times they had to rewrite it, and so that's where it originated.
Now sports betting, it's really.
Any time you're laying a big number, anytime you're on a favorite but fun segment, and happy that I was the one that was able to be on that specific segment because it's fitting.
Nah, you killed it. And of course Mike Samitch one of the best horse racing handicappers along with his other duties that lives now. They used to do that as well in old school Vegas. You know, the odds would just be erased and chalked up as well. But horse racing goes back way past that, you know. I was just thinking about that while you said it, because Dustin, you can jump in here, and Samich spends a lot of time like Aaron Halterman and the racing dudes.
At the track.
I want those that pay attention to viison that may not be into horse racing. You don't have to be into horse racing to go to the track and just experience Americana like Dustin. If you remember the first time that we did the Breeders Cup, we went to Santa Anita and I remember you just walking around completely blown away by just the ambiance, the overall vibes. It's almost like going to the track, regardless of a bougie track or an old school track. It's almost like you're stepping back in the time and it's just a great experience.
Well, I thought Santa Anita specifically, the thing that I liked the most was that it was very casual, but it also felt like a throwback. It wasn't like uppity, it wasn't pretentious, like it felt like any walk of life was going to be welcome there. But it also had a great feel, a great look. I legit used to just think about, you know what, nothing going on Saturday. I don't even understand how to bet the horses, although I do now because I just have a system that I stand by, which is if Mike bets it at Saratoga, I bet.
It a golf stream and it wins.
But I thought, many times we just spending a whole Saturday at Santa Anita, just drinking all day watching the horses run.
Yeah, we had such a good time. And Sami, you spend a lot of time at the track, you would agree, right, It's just it's a wonderful vibe it's a blast.
Man.
I can't be friends with anyone who can't have fun at the racetrack. It's one of the easiest places to have fun. It's cheap to get in, cost a couple bucks. You can usually get a couple of drinks for decent prices. If you want to bet two bucks, ten bucks, twenty bucks, two hundred bucks. You can have a good time with it. You just don't need a lot of money. And it's something you can do outdoors. I mean, I don't know about you guys, but it's nice when you can have these activities where it's not very expensive and you can go outdoors and just have a good time. And so I love going to the racetrack. Love taking new people to the racetrack too, because it's interesting what they gravitate toward when you get there.
Some people golf to get outdoors. We go to the track. And to Dustin's point of just going to Santa I used to go drive up to Santa Anita when they weren't racing there just to satellite bet. So I just be hanging around with the other degenerates betting on other tracks that were racing across the United States.
Let's go.
I want to have a little fun to start with Samo. He's got some baseball plays coming up, doesn't get your futures ready? I want to run some of them by, Samo. And I want to go through my top five season win totals with you, Mike, And some of these aren't popular, but you know how I do. I'm gonna start with number five on my list, and you just critique it. I got Washington over six and a half. Does that surprise you? Jayden Daniels, dan Quinn. The combination moving on from potentially the worst coaching staff that we saw as a lame duck in Ron Rivera might be the worst even if he wasn't a lame duck. To be fairer, they added a lot of pieces on defense. Brian Robinson Junior is off that getting shot and look spry in the preseason. I like the over six and a half. I laid a little juice. You know you love the Commander Samo.
I did not bet the Commanders over or under.
I think this is one that that's pretty fairly lined when I when I looked at their bell curve and worked through it, their team that could win anyone anywhere from five to seven games in my mind, so that six and a half for the falls right in there. Maybe if Jaden Daniels has a huge season, they get to eight or nine, But not a team I think has enough upside to bet the over with that much juice.
Mike, he was trying to trap you. You understand what he was doing. He was trying tote you to co sign his commanders. Because we have a bet on teams with equal win totals about who's going to do better this year. He wanted to trap you into being like, I love that play and he could say better.
Than your Raiders pick.
I'm very aware of what Patrick tries to do.
I just choose to not play into that, and so I'll just give him the actual analysis on the team and where it sits. I mean, if we put if he had the Raiders on here, I'd love it on the over six and a half number.
But unfortunately he doesn't like money.
Well, you'll have to wait and see. And I didn't hear anything.
You two just said.
I've got two alts. So New England is four and a half. I alt. I don't know how they win a game. I'm just saying it. I'll put myself out there. I literally don't. So I altered them down to three and a half to go under plus two twenty five, and then I altered Dustin's Carolina Panthers to four and a half their true numbers five and a half. I altered Carolina four and a half plus one eighty mic, I will one.
Hundred percent co sign on the New England Patriots. I agree with you, three and a half seems like a tall task for them, especially considering who else is in their division and that ridiculous schedule they have. How they are a fourth place team who was absolutely atrocious but also have one of the hardest schedules in the NFL.
Crazy to me.
That offensive line looks like five turnstyles. We saw Bersecet absolutely crushed in the final preseason game. I'm not sure how long percent lasts in there, and we'll see what happens with Drake may Gets in the game. The Panthers won. I've gone back and forth on this team again. I think they're fairly numbered here. I think that you could see an uptick from the offensive side. I like the addition of Deontae Johnson. Don't love him personally, but Look, he is more skilled than any wide receivers that they have in there, and I think Canalis could do some interesting things on the offensive side. To me, that that division stinks like I'm down on the Bucks, I'm down on the Saints, and that means that the Panthers have a chance to win games.
That's my biggest scare there.
Yeah, that's fair. I don't love the Carolina one. The Lions. I think everybody's gonna agree. Twelve wins last year, they got better. They play three outdoor games in the elements. I got them over ten and a half. And then my number one SAMO is San Francisco under eleven and a half super Bowl hangover. The schedule is absolutely brutal, tough division that's getting better, and it comes down one thing. We can't bet on injuries. They will be injured. I'm going under eleven and a half with the San Francisco forty nine ers.
One hundred percent agree with the on the other with San Francisco. There, I don't think they win the Vision. I don't think they win the division this year. I think the NFC West gonna be the toughest division. I think it gets three playoff teams. I think Seattle ends up winning that NFC West like the under there on San Francisco. Any any injuries to that offensive line and they are in a world of trouble. There is no depth there at all, and party without time is a problem. You go back, look when Trent Williams was hurt for three games last year. They went on in three in those three games. Are not built to sustain injuries, specifically on that offensive line.
Great breakdown, and the big guy was smiling because he's in on the Seahawks this year. Go ahead, big guy.
I'm trying to figure out what their ceiling is because I think they could be really sneaky good, like high end good. Obviously, the defense is gonna get better, but they also have a ton of really great pieces that probably the best cornerback duo in football.
I mean, they are loaded.
And then you have arguably, we talked about it on the show a few weeks ago, arguably the best trio of wide receivers to choose from. I think Kenneth Walker is in for a monster season as a bell cow. Everything about the Seahawks is trending upward. Now you have a coach that's gonna win games on the margins. I don't know what their upside is, but I think they're a team that can win a playoff game this year.
I'd like, don't sleep total go ahead, please, Mike.
Don't sleep on Grub coming in his offensive coordinator either. He's coming in from University of Washington. This was a slow paced, conservative offense. It's going to be the opposite this year. Gino Smith can throw the football downfielding. You got three big time weapons. If they play with pace and they stretched the field, this offense could be very good as well. And I agree with you, Mike McDonald's going to fix the defense in year one. May take a couple weeks, but by the end of the season they are going to be good.
Plus six fifty to win that division.
That is juicy.
This year's Titans, excuse me, this year's Texans. I'm starting buy into what you guys are saying about the Seahawks. Dustin, you want to throw just a couple of years at Mike and then we'll come back and talk a little baseball.
Yeah, Mike, I couldn't go ten to one on the Lions to win the Super Bowl. I love it, but it's just a little bit shorter than I like to get down on. So I went golf MVP, and I know it's a bet you've been talking about for months, but I found twenty five to one, And at this point finding twenty five to one did.
Still feel like value on golf? What do you think about that number? I don't mind the number at all. I bet at the first time at twenty to one at the beginning of the offseason because I thought it would go down from there. It went up to forty four to one, peaked at sixty six to one at Circle, and got hammered all the way down to like fourteen to eighteen to one at one point, floating back up. Now, Look, the schedule is so beneficial here for Detroit, specifically the early schedule. You can get golf in at twenty five to one now and he's seven to one, six to one. When we get to week seven or eight, you can come back with Mahomes and get him at seven or eight to one because they have a tough schedule and then a very easy one to close, and all of a sudden, you're the two most likely guys to win it at decent prices.
YEP, sixty to one.
It had sixty six to one.
It's their Remember that's a lot of fun. When we come back, we'll briefly touch on tomorrow night's opener, Kansas City hosting Baltimore, and get into a couple of plays. On Tonight's Late as well, Mike Samich joined Sharp Money
