SHARESIES · MARKET UPDATE · Week of 21 September 2026
Jacki Neumann, Head of Capital Markets

↑ WHAT'S UP — New Zealand was the standout, with the NZX 50 up 1.2% after Q2 GDP beat expectations at 0.2% for the quarter, lifting annual growth to a two-year high of 2.6%. The Nasdaq also edged up 0.7%, even as the broader US market drifted.

↓ WHAT'S DOWN — The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% and the ASX 200 dipped 0.1%, with hawkish central banks and elevated oil keeping a lid on equities. Tech sentiment took a knock from an AI safety essay by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, which called for a slowdown in model scaling.

! BIGGEST SURPRISES — The Fed's 25 basis point hike came with a hawkish message, as Chair Warsh said he'd be "hard pressed to call current policy restrictive" and 16 of 18 officials pencilled in at least one more hike this year, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% to its highest since 2007. RBA Governor Bullock warned that August's flagged inflation risks are now arriving, lifting the odds of a September hike to around 85%.

◎ WHAT TO WATCH — Governor Bullock and Assistant Governor Hunter both make public appearances on Tuesday, before Thursday's August employment figures feed directly into the RBA's rate decision next Tuesday. Overseas, Chinese President Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington begins Thursday, with AI high on the agenda.

◈ BIGGER PICTURE — Globally, things are still skewing hawkish, with the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all signalling or delivering tighter policy. Because US Treasuries anchor asset prices worldwide, a 10-year yield above 5% squeezes equity valuations everywhere by discounting future earnings more heavily. With oil still above US$100 and the RBA now odds-on to hike again, the tension between persistent inflation and stretched borrowers is only building.

Disclaimer:

Sharesies Market Movements is brought to you by Sharesies Australia Limited (ABN 94 648 811 830; AFSL 529893) in Australia and Sharesies Limited (NZ) in New Zealand.

This video is general market commentary and educational in nature. It is not financial advice and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is current at the time of recording and may be subject to change. We do not provide recommendations and nothing in this video should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product.

Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

If you require personal financial advice, you should consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser. Our disclosure documents and terms and conditions, including a Target Market Determination and IDPS Guide for Sharesies Australian customers, are available on our relevant Australian or NZ website.

SHARESIES &middot; MARKET UPDATE &middot; Week of 21 September 2026 Jacki Neumann, Head of Capital Markets
&uarr; WHAT'S UP &mdash; New Zealand was the standout, with the NZX 50 up 1.2% after Q2 GDP beat expectations at 0.2% for the quarter, lifting annual growth to a two-year high of 2.6%. The Nasdaq also edged up 0.7%, even as the broader US market drifted.
&darr; WHAT'S DOWN &mdash; The S&amp;P 500 slipped 0.1% and the ASX 200 dipped 0.1%, with hawkish central banks and elevated oil keeping a lid on equities. Tech sentiment took a knock from an AI safety essay by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, which called for a slowdown in model scaling.
! BIGGEST SURPRISES &mdash; The Fed's 25 basis point hike came with a hawkish message, as Chair Warsh said he'd be "hard pressed to call current policy restrictive" and 16 of 18 officials pencilled in at least one more hike this year, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% to its highest since 2007. RBA Governor Bullock warned that August's flagged inflation risks are now arriving, lifting the odds of a September hike to around 85%.
◎ WHAT TO WATCH &mdash; Governor Bullock and Assistant Governor Hunter both make public appearances on Tuesday, before Thursday's August employment figures feed directly into the RBA's rate decision next Tuesday. Overseas, Chinese President Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington begins Thursday, with AI high on the agenda.
◈ BIGGER PICTURE &mdash; Globally, things are still skewing hawkish, with the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all signalling or delivering tighter policy. Because US Treasuries anchor asset prices worldwide, a 10-year yield above 5% squeezes equity valuations everywhere by discounting future earnings more heavily. With oil still above US$100 and the RBA now odds-on to hike again, the tension between persistent inflation and stretched borrowers is only building.
Disclaimer:
Sharesies Market Movements is brought to you by Sharesies Australia Limited (ABN 94 648 811 830; AFSL 529893) in Australia and Sharesies Limited (NZ) in New Zealand.
This video is general market commentary and educational in nature. It is not financial advice and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is current at the time of recording and may be subject to change. We do not provide recommendations and nothing in this video should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product.
Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
If you require personal financial advice, you should consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser. Our disclosure documents and terms and conditions, including a Target Market Determination and IDPS Guide for Sharesies Australian customers, are available on our relevant <a href="http://sharesies.com.au">Australian</a> or <a href="https://www.sharesies.nz/legal-documents">NZ</a> website.

A conversation with experts, CEOs, and you. We talk to company leaders and industry experts every week. Listen or watch over lunch or whenever for what’s happening in the economy, the markets, and the companies you invest in.

Investing involves risk. This channel is brought to you by Sharesies Limited (NZ) in New Zealand. Information provided is general advice only and current at the time and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. We do not provide recommendations and you should always read the product disclosure documents available from the product issuer before making a financial decision. Our disclosure documents, can be found on our website.

If you require financial advice, you should seek advice from a qualified financial advisor. The views expressed by individuals are their own and Sharesies does not endorse any of the guests or the views they hold.

A conversation with experts, CEOs, and you. We talk to company leaders and industry experts every week. Listen or watch over lunch or whenever for what&rsquo;s happening in the economy, the markets, and the companies you invest in.
Investing involves risk. This channel is brought to you by Sharesies Limited (NZ) in New Zealand. Information provided is general advice only and current at the time and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. We do not provide recommendations and you should always read the product disclosure documents available from the product issuer before making a financial decision. Our disclosure documents, can be found on our website.
If you require financial advice, you should seek advice from a qualified financial advisor. The views expressed by individuals are their own and Sharesies does not endorse any of the guests or the views they hold.

Shared Lunch

Three central banks tighten, oil stays high | Market movements

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