SHARESIES · MARKET MOVEMENTS · Jacki Neumann, Head of Capital Markets at Sharesies

Note: Filmed Monday 31 August

↑ WHAT'S UP — US indices edged higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.5% and the Nasdaq up 0.9%, while the ASX 200 added 0.4%, propelled by results including Qantas’ 4.8% jump on a $2.06 billion underlying profit, Coles rising 5%, and NEXTDC beating guidance with revenue up 16% on surging AI infrastructure demand.

↓ WHAT'S DOWN — The NZX 50 fell 1.5% in its worst week since May, snapping three weeks of gains. DroneShield sank 11% despite a 74% revenue jump as it swung to a $32.2 million loss, Air New Zealand posted a $336 million full-year pre-tax loss, and Xero drew a 70.6% protest vote against its remuneration report.

! BIGGEST SURPRISES — Australia's July CPI ran hotter than expected at 3.5%, with trimmed mean inflation at 3.6%, lifting the odds of an RBA hike by year-end to 78% from 67%. At Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s tone was hawkish, pushing September US rate-rise odds from around 36% to nearly 60%.

◎ WHAT TO WATCH — The RBNZ meets Wednesday, with markets expecting a 25 basis point hike from 2.5%, and Australia's Q2 GDP lands the same day. In the US, the August employment report on Friday will be a key read ahead of the Fed's next decision on September 16.

◈ BIGGER PICTURE — Inflation is proving stickier than hoped, with a hot Australian CPI and a hawkish Warsh pushing rate-hike expectations sharply higher on both sides of the Pacific. The AI build-out still looks robust — Nvidia flagged hyperscaler capex near US$800 billion this year — but its warning on shrinking margins is a reminder that even the AI winners face cost pressure.

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