SHARESIES · MARKET MOVEMENTS · Jacki Neumann, Head of Capital Markets at Sharesies

Note: Filmed Monday 7 September

↑ WHAT'S UP

The NZX 50 gained 1.5%, while US indices held their ground with the S&P 500 up 0.1% and the Nasdaq up 0.4%. Dell was the tech sector’s star, jumping almost 16% on record AI server orders of US$61 billion and a US$25 billion lift to full-year revenue guidance.

↓ WHAT'S DOWN

The ASX 200 fell 1%, dragged partly by a string of index heavyweights trading ex-dividend, including CSL, Brambles, and BlueScope, while Corporate Travel Management plunged over 80% as trading resumed after a long halt, and Broadcom slipped close to 3% on a cautious near-term forecast.

! BIGGEST SURPRISES

Bond yields surged to multi-decade highs in multiple markets: Australian 10-year yields hitting 5.2% (their highest since 2011), UK Gilts at 5.2% and Japanese JGBs breaching 3% for the first time in 30 years. At home, Q2 GDP growth of 2.1% ran above the economy's sustainable speed limit, lifting the odds of a September RBA hike to around 70%.

◎ WHAT TO WATCH

It's a quieter week, with US markets shut for Labor Day before all eyes turn to Friday's US August CPI, the key input ahead of the Fed's next decision. In Australia, Tuesday brings Westpac Consumer Sentiment, NAB Business Confidence and speeches from two RBA officials.

◈ BIGGER PICTURE

We’re seeing a global repricing of interest rate risk, as re-escalating Middle East tensions push oil back up and stoke inflation fears from Sydney to Tokyo. Central banks are pulling in different directions, with the RBNZ hiking but softening its tone, the RBA now odds-on to move, and the Fed facing mixed signals. Next week's US CPI could prove decisive for where rates head from here.

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