SHARESIES · MARKET UPDATE · Week of 02 November 2026
Jacki Neumann, Head of Capital Markets

↑ WHAT'S UP — Local markets outpaced Wall Street, with the ASX 200 up 1.3% for the week and the NZX 50 up 0.5%. Miners led the quarterly updates, with Boss Energy up 10%, and gains for Pilbara Minerals and Lynas. Cloud was the bright spot in big tech results: Alphabet's cloud revenue more than doubled, Microsoft's Azure revenue rose 48%, and Amazon's AWS grew 39%. Oil rose for a fourth straight week, with Brent ending around US$115 a barrel.

↓ WHAT’S DOWN — The S&P 500 fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq lost 2%, after the Nasdaq's worst day since June on Friday. Alphabet fell almost 13% on Thursday on slow growth in search. Intel plunged almost 30% on Friday, and chipmakers were among the hardest hit across tech. Microsoft gave up early gains on plans for a US$25 billion bond sale. Locally, Coles fell 7.7% after weaker-than-expected sales, Wesfarmers dropped 4% as Bunnings sales growth moderated, and Cochlear fell 3.4%.

! BIGGEST SURPRISES — The RBNZ left the cash rate on hold at 2.75% against expectations of a hike, with markets now pricing around an 80% chance of a December hike. In Australia, annual inflation rose to 4.3% in September, up from 4% in August and above forecasts, driven by a sharp rise in fuel prices. RBA Governor Michele Bullock told a Senate committee that upside risks to inflation are emerging, and markets now see more than an 80% chance of a fifth rate hike this year on Tuesday.

◎ WHAT TO WATCH — After the latest RBA decision, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s speech will follow on Thursday. Westpac reports full-year results on Monday, followed by NAB on Thursday and Macquarie Group's half-year result on Friday. Whitehaven Coal and Breville hold their AGMs on Thursday, and Coles and Qantas on Friday. In the US, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway and Palantir report on Monday, AMD and Pfizer on Tuesday, Qualcomm and Uber on Wednesday, and Airbnb and Atlassian on Thursday. US midterm elections are held on Tuesday, with control of Congress at stake, and Friday's October jobs report is expected to show unemployment holding at 4.2%.

◈ BIGGER PICTURE — Inflation is pushing central banks towards further hikes. The Fed held rates as expected, but reiterated that inflation is elevated, while two officials voted for a hike. Markets now see around a 75% chance of a December hike. Higher oil prices are adding to the pressure, as diplomatic efforts with Iran continue alongside speculation about renewed US strikes to come. Big tech is also spending heavily: Amazon's capital spending hit US $77B in the quarter, well above expectations, and Microsoft plans a US $25B bond sale. Investors are judging that spending against how fast AI revenue grows.

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