The Strait of Hormuz crisis has turned a 53-kilometre waterway into the most consequential question in global energy. One to three ships are transiting it daily. It used to be 130.

Imagine the gap between knowing something can happen and watching it happen in real time. Western governments have war-gamed the Strait closing for 125 years. The assumption was always that Iran would fall first. It did not. And now the threat of a single homemade rocket, not a navy, not a warship, is enough to do what decades of geopolitical strategy assumed could never happen.

The historical record does not offer much comfort here. Price shocks at this scale have preceded prolonged economic depressions before, and those depressions create the conditions for conflict over natural resources. This pattern is not inevitable. But the early indicators right now, Ian Wereley says, look very familiar.

Topics: Strait of Hormuz crisis, Iran oil blockade, global oil supply disruption, oil market volatility, Strait of Hormuz geography

GUEST: Ian Wereley

Originally aired on 2026-04-20