Who’s gonna win?  

How I wish I could tell you. But from here in the heart of Washington DC I’m happy to be humble. I think anyone who says with supreme confidence or with certainty that they know who the next President of the United States is gonna be, is just blagging.   

I’ve spent the week on the road. I’ve been through parts of Arizona, Georgia, New York, and DC. From a Donald Trump rally in Atlanta to Kamala Harris’ Closing Argument in front of the White House.   

I’ve spoken with African American voters backing Donald Trump, new migrants voting for the first time, abortion rights advocates, business owners, a cryptocurrency organiser, and a professor of constitutional law.   

One of the consistent qualities is how exhausted people are by the whole thing. They’re so ready for this race to be over. Here’s what I think could be the qualities that ultimately define the race: 

1) The gender divide. There is a 16-17 point difference between male and female preferences in this election. More than 60 million votes have already been cast and, given we still have a weekend before election day, it seems highly likely that more than half of voters will cast ballots before Wednesday.   

Here’s why that’s notable: of the votes cast so far, women are voting at much high levels than men. It’s about 55% vs 45%.   

A married couple who are really good friends of mine experience this first hand. He loves Trump. She loathes him. They just agree to mostly avoid talking politics at home. Something similar must be playing out in tens of thousands of American households.   

Donald Trump’s strategy relies on turning out a lot of young men – hence the bro podcasts, the UFC, the embracing of crypto and Elon Musk. This is risky, in that young men belong to the demographic most likely not to vote. But I’ve been doing this long enough to know that Donald Trump has made a real habit of bucking conventional wisdom in politics.   

2) The economy always factors in people’s choices, but aside from that and aside from Donald Trump’s character... there are two highly motivating issues in this election. One is the border security and immigration, the other is abortion access. If you go to the rallies or hear the candidates speak, Trump absolutely hammers the border issue and Kamala Harris hammers reproductive rights.  

3) The polls. I told myself in 2016 I wouldn’t trust the polls again. I told myself in 2020 I wouldn’t trust the polls again. The problem is the pollsters don’t release their modelling. How do they account for Donald Trump’s support among young men if young men don’t usually vote in the same numbers as other demographics? If people misled pollsters by telling them they were supporting Hillary when they were really supporting Trump, will they do that again? Or has Trump shame passed as a notable phenomenon? Right now, Kamala Harris is doing worse in the polls than Hillary Clinton and worse than Joe Biden, but is there a chance the pollsters have overcorrected?   

The election is Wednesday. I think it’s pretty unlikely we’ll have a result that day and it’ll take time before either Harris or Trump is officially the President-elect. Regardless of who wins, I think, sadly, the American electorate is going to remain bitterly divided.