The polls still put Trump and Harris neck-and-neck. But are we in for a surprise?

Published Oct 30, 2024, 6:01 PM

Should we be surprised that the last week before the American presidential election is breaking historical records? Probably not. This is, after all, the race that has brought us assassination attempts (two). And an 11th hour candidate change. 

Still, never before in modern presidential election campaigns, has the race been this tight so close to election day, say some commentators. And, forget policies. Who wins could come down to the weather on election day, or - as one former aide to Barack Obama put it - “the vibes”.

Today, North America correspondent Farrah Tomazin on what the vibes were like in battleground states, during her recent trips there. And whether a legion of so-called shy Kamala voters could help her nab the White House.

From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Salinger Morris. It's Thursday, October 31st. Should we be surprised that the last week before the American presidential election is breaking historical records? Probably not. This is, after all, the race that has brought us assassination attempts. Two and an 11th hour candidate change. Still, never before in modern presidential election campaigns has the race been this tight, so close to election day, according to some commentators. And forget policies, who wins could come down to the weather on election day. Or as one former aide to Barack Obama put it, the vibes today. North America correspondent Farrah Tomazin on what the vibes were like in battleground states during her recent trips there, and whether a legion of so-called shy Kamala voters could help her nab the white House. So Farah, we are now less than a week out. So what are the polls saying? I mean, is it clear right now who's in the lead to win?

Yeah, we are less than a week out from the sort of this crazy US election. It's been filled with a lot of surprises and political violence and a fair bit of upheaval. But the one thing that's really remained constant is the fact that it's a really tight race. And it has been for quite some time. The last time I checked, using FiveThirtyEight, which is a polling aggregator. Kamala Harris is up by about 1.4 percentage points over Donald Trump at the national level. But when it comes to the seven battleground states that will ultimately decide this election, they're pretty much even in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. I think Harris is up by one point in Michigan, Trump's up by one in Georgia, North Carolina, and two in Arizona.

And would you agree with the commentator that I saw writing in the New York Times just the other day who said, never in modern presidential campaigns have so many states been so tight this close to Election Day?

Yeah, I certainly haven't seen anything sort of like this. And and I track the polls fairly regularly. And from what I've seen, if you believe the polls and that's another story altogether. All the polls that I've seen have all been within the margin of error, which essentially means they're either, you know, really stuffing things up or this is going to be one of the closest elections, if not the closest we've we've had.

Okay. But let's get into whether we can actually trust the polls, because obviously what happened in 2016 is the prime example of why perhaps we shouldn't. So can you take us through what happened with the polling back in 2016, and then what you think of what the polls are saying this time around?

Yeah. Look, I mean, on that question of can we trust the polls? I personally am pretty skeptical just because we've all seen how wrong they can be, both in Australia and internationally. And you're right, the 2016 presidential election was probably the prime example. What basically happened there is it was a race between Democrat Hillary Clinton versus Donald Trump, the relative newcomer, and most of the national polls were predicting correctly in her popular vote, but they missed. Sort of. The Electoral College due to a range of issues. So, for example, in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, they underestimated Donald Trump's support there. They had smaller sample sizes. Some polls stopped polling a few days before the election. So they missed this last minute swing that happened towards Trump in some of those states. And then there were these sort of what you call shy Trump voters. To some extent. There were these voters who were less likely to disclose their support to pollsters. I mean, evidence for the notion of, you know, the shy Trump supporter is mixed, but there is a theory that a lot of them were missed out. And it just was, I guess, for Hillary Clinton, a massive disappointment.

And it's so interesting that you mentioned there that in 2016, pollsters sort of really missed out on the so-called shy voters who ended up, you know, supporting Trump in droves. But you've been traveling around the battleground states, and you've actually been getting a sense that there could be a group of so-called shy Kamala voters who could possibly determine who wins. So tell us about them.

Yeah. It's interesting. I mean, I have been traveling around to all the battleground states, and this notion of a sort of a shy Kamal or a shy anti-Trump voter first emerged when I was in Arizona and I met this bloke by the name of Kevin. He's a former pastor who voted for Donald Trump for president in 2016. He believed that, you know, yes, he was a bit of a flashy businessman, but he'd grow into the role of commander in chief. And he was telling me that it took about three weeks for him to realize he made a grave mistake. Kevin's now part of this group called Republican voters against Trump. His face is plastered all over billboards in Arizona, basically saying, you know, I'm a former Trump voter. I'm a Republican, but I'm voting for Harris. And as part of this push to kind of build a big tent coalition, if you like, for Kamala Harris and to give other Republicans who may be hesitant about voting for Trump again, I guess, license or a permission structure to do so. But he was telling me that he knows a lot of people who aren't planning to support Trump at the ballot box, but they just don't want to kind of suffer the same fate that he did because he was cast out of his congregation. He was bullied basically at the moment. He sort of started turning on Trump, and I heard similar stories as I traveled around to other battleground states I was in. Speaking to someone from Wisconsin last week, a military veteran called Tiffany Kohler. She was a Republican who ran for the state assembly in 2018. She says some of her neighbors, including elected Republican officials at the local level, don't support what Trump's been up to, but they still have lawn signs endorsing him. And she was saying that, you know, she she talked to them and they just kind of say, look, you know, it's better than the repercussions. You know, they don't want to be called a rhino, which is what Donald Trump calls Republicans in name only. They don't want to be dealing with the repercussions both politically, professionally and personally. So who knows? It is an interesting concept, and I guess I guess time will tell. We'll soon find out.

We'll be right back. And fans, tell us how is it actually going to work next week? I mean, when are we actually likely to get a result?

So the US election will be held on Tuesday the 5th of November. That's us time. Votes are counted in each state after respective polls close. The winner of the election will probably not be projected for days unless it's a massive blowout one way or another. Every state wants to get things done as quickly as possible, though. When I'm going around to the different states talking to the election chiefs, they all want to get this done ASAP, knowing that the longer you leave a vacuum, the more likely it could be for, you know, election deniers to start sowing doubt or to start trying to challenge the outcome. And to be perfectly honest, Trump and his allies are already starting to sow doubt. I mean, they're talking about the fact that, you know, yes, we'll accept this election result if it's, quote, free or fair. Trump's been saying things like, you know, the Democrats are going to cheat. That's the only way they can win. We can't let that happen. He's using comments like, you got to make it too big to rig, suggesting that, you know, there could be foul play.

And so what's the feeling on the ground like with regards to what you were just talking about, the sowing the seeds of doubt among Republicans as to whether it'll actually be a fair election? I mean, are people sort of worried that there might even be violence at polling booths?

Yeah. I mean, I think we've already seen that with some of the arson attacks on drop boxes in, in Washington state and Oregon. I was in Georgia just a couple of days ago, and I was speaking to Gabriel Sterling. He is the chief operations officer who basically works under the secretary of state. And Gabe was sort of telling me that he's very concerned about the fact that we're not necessarily going to have a US Capitol style attack. I mean, quite frankly, Washington, D.C. is probably going to be the safest place to be given, you know, the lessons of 2020. But he was concerned about the fact that, you know, at individual polling centres, you could have, you know, rogue, radicalised people from either side. I mean, look at what happened with Donald Trump and, you know, his attempted assassination. So from either side, basically trying to attack poll workers, trying to meddle with the results, I know that polling centres have some states have done things like giving their poll workers combat training and shooter drill training and, you know, de-escalation training to basically deal with the sorts of stuff that they are going to, well, that they're anticipating in view of the divisions in this country.

Okay. So, FAZ, I really want to ask you about what's been happening over the past week with the respective campaigns, because there's been a lot of drama. We've all seen the headlines about Beyonce, Michelle Obama, a racist joke that went real bad, and Elon Musk. So give us the rundown.

Well, I mean, obviously we've got the last stretch of the campaign. Both Harris and Trump have been barnstorming the battleground states. Trump kicked off the week with a big rally at Madison Square Gardens in New York, which turned into a massive PR disaster when a speaker at the rally, a comedian by the name of Tony Hinchcliffe, called Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage.

There's a lot going on. Like, I don't know if you guys know this, but there's literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. Yeah, I think it's called Puerto Rico. Okay.

All right. It was meant to be a.

Joke, supposedly, but it was one of many racist, sexist jokes that were told at the event. This prompted a furious backlash from celebrities, folks like Bad Bunny of Puerto Rican, and he's one of the most influential, biggest celebrities on the planet. Jennifer Lopez, Ricky Martin they all came out against this. And you had some Democrats and also Republicans. I mean, there were Republicans in Florida with huge numbers of Puerto Rican locals. And and it's also worth noting that Puerto Rico is obviously an island in the Caribbean, but it is. Their citizens are American citizens. They have citizenship and birthright. They're allowed to vote, and they make up a large chunk of the Latin population here in America. So it was a really bad move, given that Latinos are such a strong voting bloc. So, look, he's been in damage control. But there are other speakers, too. I mean, it was just a brew fest of vulgarity. And, you know, there was a guy, a businessman who declared that Harris and her pimp handlers were going to destroy the country. Harris, for her part, she's been kind of bringing on the star studded lineups. She's had a rally in Texas with Beyonce. She's brought in Michelle Obama, who made her first appearance on the weekend in the battleground of Michigan.

He could take actions that effectively ban abortion nationwide, which would put all of us in danger no matter what state we live in. We will see more doctors hesitating or shying away from providing life saving treatments because they are worried about being arrested. More medical.

She really went for Donald Trump and his character, and talked about the far reaching consequences of the Supreme Court's decision to curtail abortion rights in America. She's taped, you know, podcast with Brené Brown, who we all know has done a lot of stuff in terms of embracing vulnerability and the like. And, yeah, she's she's really kind of, I guess, leaning into the one area that Donald Trump is struggling with at the moment, and that is women and suburban women. Um, she's not doing as well with with men, apparently. Trump's doing a lot better, but the gender gap is certainly something to watch at this year's election. It's a feature of all elections, but I do think that it could be far more profound this year.

And so you and I are recording only a few hours after Kamala Harris has given what her campaign is, calling her closing argument. And she gave it at the very same place where Donald Trump spoke right before the January 6th insurrection. That was obviously very intentional. So tell us, what sort of message does she want to leave voters with? Yeah.

She did. She held a rally just now at the ellipse. Tens of thousands of people came out to see her. It was basically, as you say, in exactly that same place where Trump gave his own address in 2021 before his his supporters stormed the Capitol. And she basically used that intentionally as a backdrop to frame the election as a referendum on Trump. A chance to turn the page on what she said were years of chaos, distrust, division. Her aim was to offer voters a real contrast to him and and a vision for how she'd govern his presidency.

Donald Trump has spent a decade trying to keep the American people divided and afraid of each other. That is who he is. But America, I am here tonight to say that is not who we are. That is not who we are.

She made the point that he's a divider and she's someone who builds consensus. He wants to jail his opponents, so she wants to offer Republicans a seat at the table. He has an enemies list, as she says, and she has a to do list. So that was really kind of the aim of it, to remind people about the chaos that was sowed under those years of Donald Trump. It's basically, in her words, a choice about whether this country is going to be about freedom for America or ruled by chaos and division.

And so what do you think we can expect from the final days of the campaigns? And what do you think Donald Trump's going to focus on?

I think we're going to expect them both to basically, you know, try to optimize their reach as much as they can. I mean, all elections in America are turnout elections. You've got to get people to show up at the polling booths. You've got to get them to vote early when they can. As I said, it'll come down to the seven key battlegrounds. Harris is heading west later this week to Arizona and Nevada to shore up more of the Latino vote. I think she's keen to capitalize on Donald Trump's PR debacle. Trump will obviously be barnstorming a lot of those states, too, but both of them are going to really focus, I think, on the Midwest, because particularly for Kamala Harris, if she can win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, aka the Blue wall, which is known because it was basically in Democratic hands until Trump busted in in 2016, she will get enough of the Electoral College votes, and she needs 270 to win the presidency. So if she can do a clean sweep of that, and that's something that listeners should really watch out for on election night. If she gets that, she's got the she's got the presidency. But, you know, Trump knows that as well. So he'll be very much focusing on the battleground states. He'll be looking at his two pet issues immigration and the economy. He's going to really drive home the fact that he thinks Kamala Harris is vice president under the Biden administration over the last four years is to blame. He really is pushing the point in quite dark terms, actually. He's basically said, you know, she is going to destroy the country. And, um, you know, really sort of framing her as, I guess, someone who will, funnily enough, take take the country backwards.

Well, thank you so much, Farrah, for your time.

Thank you very much.

Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by Kai Huang. Our head of audio is Tom McKendrick. The Morning Edition is a production of The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. If you enjoy the show and want more of our journalism, subscribe to our newspapers today. It's the best way to support what we do. Search The age or Smh.com.au forward slash. Subscribe and sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter to receive a comprehensive summary of the day's most important news, analysis and insights in your inbox every day. Links are in the show. Notes. I'm Samantha Salinger Morris. This is the morning edition. Thanks for listening.