The housing problems John Howard couldn’t fix

Published Jan 5, 2025, 6:00 PM

We’ve been living through a housing crisis for so long, that sometimes it feels as though it’s been with us forever. But when did it actually start? And what would it take to make the dream to own your own home once again within reach? For the first time, thanks to newly unlocked cabinet papers from 2004, we now know more about what role former Prime Minister John Howard and his treasurer, Peter Costello, played, in arguably contributing to house prices that have, well, gone insane.

Today, senior economics correspondent Shane Wright, on the warning that Howard and Costello were given, but decided not to present to their own cabinet. And what voters should know, ahead of the next federal election.

From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Salinger Morris. It's Monday, January 6th. We've been living through a housing crisis for so long that sometimes it feels as though it's been with us forever. But when did it actually start? And what would it take to make the dream to own your own home once again within reach? For the first time, thanks to newly unlocked cabinet papers from 2004, we now know more about what role former Prime Minister John Howard and his treasurer, Peter Costello, played in arguably contributing to house prices that have well gone insane.

Australia is the least affordable housing market in the English speaking world, and according to new data, Sydney is now the second most unaffordable city in which to buy a home.

The report also shows that Australia's five other major cities also ranked highly on the least affordable housing market list. Melbourne was in ninth position. Adelaide 14th. Brisbane 15th and Perth ranked at 50th.

Today, senior economics correspondent Shane Wright, on the warning that Howard and Costello were given, but decided not to present to their own cabinet and what voters should know ahead of the next federal election. So, Shane, you wrote a piece that dug into cabinet papers from 2004, which have just been released, and they contained a bombshell. So can you let it rip? What do we now know that we didn't know before?

Well, we knew that John Howard and Peter Costello had asked the Productivity Commission to look at what was going on in the housing market, particularly for young home buyers, because at the time, say, in Sydney, there had been a 43% jump in house prices over the past two years. So there was a lot of concern publicly about what the hell was going on and what this was doing to young people. Um, nothing good, let's be assured, because the problems that were identified then have continued. So we knew that this inquiry would come out. It had made its recommendations. However, what the cabinet papers tell us, it gives you what John Howard and Peter Costello were telling to their senior ministers directly and also by omission, which is also a really important part of this whole argument and whole discussion about what's going on in house prices and what governments can do to sort of take some of the heat out of an extraordinarily stupid property market.

Okay. Well, I definitely want to get into what we've found out, you know, omissions and all that sort of stuff because some of it is a bit surprising. But first, can you just tell me what were the main recommendations in this report? Yeah.

So the piece unsurprisingly said, look, we need more homes. We need to put on a bigger amount of supply. So they went right. We need state governments and stop me if you've heard this before. Over the last 20 years. But we need more land released. We need better planning approvals so things can get built quicker. What was also interesting is the PC and this is really important, said the federal tax system is playing a role in accelerating prices up and down. And it said, look, the capital gains tax concession that had been introduced by Peter Costello in 1999. Ding ding ding. We need to have a look at how that is working, because in our view, we think the capital gains tax concession is interacting with negative gearing in a way that is pushing up house prices, particularly from investors who are out competing younger couples or younger individuals who are trying to get their first house.

But they actually.

Shelved that recommendation, didn't they, that they review the tax system and in particular this capital gains tax.

They certainly did. House prices had already started climbing before this period, but they really took off at the same time. But the share market was dead flat. Nothing was going on. So Costello had got Treasury to put together what's called an annex. This little short submission from Treasury actually goes to, oh, if the share market isn't moving, but the House house prices are moving up, well, that's clearly not because of the concession in capital gains. Of course, it was the very reason, one of the very reasons that was feeding into the house price market at the time.

So are you saying the government lied then?

No.

This is a mission and I'll get the key omission is what was going on in the tax in the net rent. No one mentioned. Oh hold on, net rent is falling like people are making losses. Why is this so? And the PC had said we think it's the interaction of capital gains tax and negative gearing. The reserve Bank says. We think it's because of capital gains tax interacting with negative gearing. Treasury doesn't say this, doesn't want to say it, and doesn't actually present this. Really. They knew the information at the time because they were keeping track of it, but didn't tell the ministers around the table that, oh, this might be a problem. And it makes sense why you wouldn't do this, because the bloke who'd actually put in place the change to capital gains tax, saying this will drive share prices higher.

John Howard. Yeah.

And Peter Costello, this is Peter Costello's baby at the time. Why would you draw attention to. Oh oops. It's not working like we thought would work.

But I really.

Want to ask you this because essentially what you're saying is the Productivity Commission, they've told John Howard and Costello, you know, that the combination of negative gearing and the capital gains tax concession, there was this danger. It was going to magnify the attractiveness of investing in residential property. And this is going to add to price pressures. But yet they do not present that to cabinet. I mean, is that not underhanded?

Well, there is a 300 page report that the ministers could read if they wanted to. But if you're running, say, the health department, your mind is focused on running the health department. If you're Alexander Downer, who was the foreign minister at the time, you've got your mind focused. What the hell's going on in Iraq? You haven't got the capacity, really, to read into the depths of the 300 page report. I don't know if it's underhanded, but John Howard was never afraid to say, look, people aren't coming up to him complaining that the value of their house is going up. Yes, he.

Famously said that. But, you know, for the rest of us looking on. Did did they do us dirty? Because, you know, we now know that 20 years later, the problems got even worse. You know, it's now incredibly unaffordable. You know, arguably a whole generation of Australians are never going to be able to to enter the housing market or they're really going to struggle to do so. And I guess how much of that is at the hands of John Howard and Peter Costello? Let's ask that question.

Or look it.

Up. If you've seen the movie death on the Orient Express, Agatha Christie, everyone on the train kills the person. Okay, no one is innocent. So to say that, look, it's John Howard with a knife. No. Or Peter Costello? No, because there's there is a whole heap of other people. At that very point in time, it was a Labour government in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and in South Australia. What did they do? What about the the nation's banks and saying, look, we want to be able to lend more money. So the banking system has really enjoyed what's gone on because if you lend more money you will get more money back in interest. So local councils, look, they are right in the centre of this. Like we've got this whole debate between NIMBYs and NIMBYs playing out. Um, and you can see that's part of it. And there are the people like you and I who might have a house. We don't want the value of our house to go down. We express concern about our kids or the neighbors kids who can't afford a house. However, if I say, right, uh, Sam, we're going to take 100, $200,000 off the value of your home. I'm not. I'm not sure everyone's prepared to say, oh, yeah, I'll do that. And the reserve Bank would go, oh, hold on, that'll have macroeconomic ramifications. We are all in together with this crazy Ponzi scheme.

We'll be back in a minute. So, Shane, your piece about this really hit a nerve with our readers. I checked right before recording and it had garnered about 700 comments. And many of those people, they're really angry. And they say that, you know, this disparity between the haves and have nots in Australia, that obviously we see it's very pronounced that a lot of that is as a result of John Howard's decisions, one person wrote in the comments. Underneath your piece, he opened up a chasm of inequality that didn't exist before. Now, that's obviously a massive call. Is there any truth in this?

Look.

House prices really started to get out of kilter around 1996. And that's when the first non-bank lenders really got into the Australian property market. So you've got that issue going on in 1996. You have a lift in migration or immigration starts through the 2000 and absolutely takes place. We don't have enough building going on. The interaction of negative gearing and capital gains tax encourages investors into the market to buy established homes. That means that there's a couple or a person who can't. First time buyer who can't buy that house. You have councils not releasing as much land. You have Nimby saying I don't want it units near me. It'll devalue my home. You can see all these problems have been they've just been building and building and building. Until we get to a point that Sydney is the second most expensive city in the world for housing. Melbourne is not far behind.

And so even if the government were to change our current legislation, you know, about capital gains tax and negative gearing in particular, that's not a silver bullet solution at all to this housing crisis, right? Like we have to.

Put that out. Not even a.

Graze on a werewolf.

Yeah, right.

It would, it would have. And there has been some research in this space, maybe 2 to 3% in terms of house prices. That's it. It's important. But there's all these other factors.

And so, Shane, what.

Impact might these revelations have on the current government and the upcoming election? Because we know that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, he's been struggling in the polls. And one criticism that he faces time and time again is that he's timid. He hasn't implemented a signature or bold reform. So do you think that voters might now sort of look down the barrel at Albanese and to step up and make major tax changes that might help many more Australians afford a home?

No, I just I just don't I'm not convinced at all that after seeing what happened to Bill shorten in 16 and 19, that the Albanese government would go, oh, hold on, we're behind in the polls. This is a way to garner support from all these middle class voters in the outer suburbs who've got who might be buying a home. We'll come up with a policy that, at its heart, is to try and take down or stop the increase in the value of homes. I'm not convinced by that. And the scare campaigns that are run around negative gearing. Look, you would think that every person in the country owns a rental property, given the amount of focus that's put onto this issue. Um, and that everyone's negatively geared, which they're not either. Like, I don't think many people quite grasp what's going on in that space.

Anthony Albanese said modelling was being done over scaling back negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions, but the government isn't changing its housing policy.

We have no plans to touch or change negative gearing. What we're concerned about is supply of housing. And this. I'm not convinced that it'll make any difference. That's positive when it comes to supply. And you can see.

Peter Dutton, he's tried to argue the case that the Labour Party is secretly planning a negative gearing CGT policy assault. Um, he he has smelt the breeze in that space and says, no, we won't do a thing.

I wanted to ask.

You about this because our mastheads revealed in November that the Defence Department has an estimated $68 billion worth of property, some of which it could sell to help address our housing crisis. We know this. You know, this is something that the Defence Department had planned. And then we found out that those plans had been shelved. So do you think that these latest revelations might jump start that initiative?

There was a cabinet paper in 2004 about the release of defence Land. This issue has been around. I think Labour went to the 2001 election campaign to say this, and surprisingly, there are a large number of golf courses on Australian defence land. It's part of the recreational aspect of trying to encourage people to stay in the Defence forces and this government and the previous government, they have really struggled to get people into the defence forces because they're trying to increase the number of people we have in khaki. They've really struggled. Selling off recreational assets may not be perceived as one way to encourage people into the defence forces. The idea of selling defence land has been around, and almost every government in the last 25 years have looked at it because the Defence Department holds a whole lot of land in really prime areas. Unsurprisingly, um, whether this government is brave enough to say, look, we will do This is another story.

And what about.

The willpower of the electorate? I mean, you mentioned a bit earlier that, you know, Labour had gone to two elections, I believe, 2016 and 2019, promising to have the 50% capital gains tax deduction and also limit negative gearing, and that was not supported. So so why are we not supporting various measures, or at least that one that arguably would help so many Australians?

Well, the.

Greens have got even more, uh, strong policy in, say, negative gearing, effectively getting rid of it. The Greens primary vote is around 11%, 12%. There's not people rushing in into this space because one, there are a whole other issues for people to consider when they come to deciding who to vote for. So housing, as important as it is, may not be as important to voters as other issues. That's always part and parcel of it. But for the third of the population that already owns their home, they have a huge vested interest in the value of that home. Appreciating it. If you're the third of the population that has a mortgage, you don't want the value of your home to go down while you've got a whopping big mortgage. And if you're the the poor third who are renting, of which there's a subsection who are potential first home buyers who are really struggling and struggling to get into the property market, yet their interests are being absolutely ignored. We are absolutely killing future generations. Every time we go down to the local bank and sign up for another super sized mortgage with really expensive splashbacks or a gaming room, we are doing it to ourselves.

So this is almost like the way we treat the environment. You know, like this is a problem for later. We're, you know, we're killing future generations because we just don't want to deal with the sacrifices. Now, this is this is what's happening in this space.

Yeah. That's the history of civilization.

Like, we we're so focused on the short term. The longer term is always much more difficult. From around the 1970s. We've just been taking these little steps, little steps towards turning housing into something other than just shelter, into an investment opportunity in a way to build wealth. And we've all bought into that. But the price is being paid by a generation that current anyone under the age of 40 is really up against it, and the next generation is going to cop it even further. And the generation after that is going to be wondering what the hell's gone wrong.

What message would you leave listeners with? You know, who are going to the next election. And we want to help this next generation. What do you what do you wish people knew?

If anyone promises you, we've got a single bullet to solve the housing crisis, tell them. Go away. You're dreaming. Because that is just not true. It's absolutely untrue.

So don't let that sway you at the next election. Don't let that be the thing that sways you.

No, no. Anyone who says I've got one policy that'll do it, tell them that. Tell them to nick off.

Thank you so much, Shane, for your time.

Always a pleasure seeing you.

Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by Tom Compagnoni. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills. Our head of audio is Tom McKendrick. The Morning Edition is a production of The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. If you enjoy the show and want more of our journalism, subscribe to our newspapers today. It's the best way to support what we do. Search the age or Smh.com.au forward slash. Subscribe and sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter to receive a comprehensive summary of the day's most important news, analysis and insights in your inbox every day. Links are in the show. Notes. I'm Samantha Salinger Morris, this is the morning edition. Thanks for listening.