Iran’s president has been killed. What does it mean for the Middle East?

Published May 20, 2024, 7:01 PM

Iran state media confirmed on Monday that president Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash on a foggy mountain side in a hard-to-reach corner of north-west Iran.

Was his death an accident, or not? And might it escalate the ever-growing tensions between Iran, and Israel, its sworn enemy, which some have speculated is behind the accident?

Today, digital foreign editor Chris Zappone on the hard-line cleric who oversaw a morality crackdown in Iran that led to nationwide protests. And what impact his death could have on stability, or instability, in the wider region.

From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. This is the morning edition. I'm Samantha Cylinder Morris. It's Tuesday, May 21st. Yesterday, it was confirmed that Iran's president, Ebrahim Raisi, died in a helicopter crash on a foggy mountainside in a hard to reach corner of northwest Iran. Was his death an accident or not? And might it escalate the ever growing tensions between Iran and Israel, its sworn enemy, which some have speculated is behind the accident? Today, digital foreign editor Chris Zappone on Ebrahim Raisi, the hardline cleric who oversaw a morality crackdown in Iran that led to nationwide protests, and what impact his death could have on stability or instability in the wider region. So, Chris, can you tell us what happened to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Sunday? What do we know about the helicopter crash that he was involved in?

So Ebrahim Raisi was flying back from an event on the border with Azerbaijan, a neighboring nation, to Iran, and he was with an entourage that included the foreign minister there aboard a helicopter. The helicopter went missing in a very mountainous area, where there was quite a bit of fog that that evening, the helicopter dropped off the radar. They didn't know what happened. They sent out a rescue vehicles to the to the area, but even then they had trouble getting access to where they thought that the helicopter might be.

Rescuers in Iran have been searching for a helicopter carrying President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-abdollahian, which has crashed in heavy fog.

We just got the news recently that the helicopter has been located, the crash site has been located and they see no signs of life, so it's essentially looks like the president and the foreign minister and the others in the entourage have perished.

Following breaking news out of Iran, where state media has now confirmed the death of President Ebrahim Raisi and the country's foreign minister.

Okay, so tell us, who is President Ebrahim Raisi? I mean, when it comes to Iran, we always hear about the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, who's been in power for a very long time, 35 years. But who is or was Ebrahim Raisi and what was his actual function in the country?

Well, so he was elected to the position of president in 2021. He his background was a cleric. And obviously, uh, Iran is run by clerics. It's a theocracy. So that's sort of an important factor in his ability to be a leader. One of the things about his history that raised eyebrows is that he was involved in some of these political persecution panels, uh, in the late 1980s, when Iran was locked in a long war with neighbor Iraq. Then in 2021, after he became president, it wasn't soon after that that morality police were trying to enforce strict laws around the appearance of women in particular. And that was at the time where a young Kurdish Iranian woman named Mahsa Amini had appeared in public without her headscarf on or without wearing it in the manner that was prescribed by the by the government. She was taken into custody. She was beaten. She later died.

It all started with the death of 22 year old Mahsa Amini, arrested by the morality police in Tehran for wearing her hijab loosely.

This kicked off massive protests around the nation among young people, young women in particular.

These are the videos. Iran doesn't want you to see the police firing in the streets. Women cutting their hair, burning hijabs in rage. Students demonstrations.

People who were upset with the with the current state of affairs, with the theocracy. They're very tired of this sort of orthodox, ultra conservative interpretation of the the morals of the Islamic society that brought about a massive wave of repression, where police were going out and shooting at protesters. They're clubbing them, they're dragging them off the street. And this went on for months. And this, as you recall, was also known as the Women Life Freedom protest. And it became a bit of a referendum on the legitimacy of the revolutionary government, the Islamic revolutionary government, which dated back to 1979. And this is something that Raisi was he was the president as this was happening and this repression was going on. So he made no friends among the more youthful, progressive elements of society that were tiring of this kind of orthodox interpretation of the religion. So that is one of the reasons that he was famous outside of Iran.

And so it'd be safe to say that he was a controversial figure, would it? I mean, he was obviously a hardliner, and he actually oversaw this morality crackdown and mass repression, really, that sort of really was kicking off in 2021, 2022. So he's always been known as ultra conservative. Is that right?

Well, I mean, he would be controversial to us, certainly. Um, but I guess it depends on where you sit. If you're one of the conservative clerics in Iran, he would be considered probably just holding the line on, on all these elements from what they would see as coming from outside of the society that threatened to undermine it. But yes, he very much started to signify really the regime of Iran at a time when there was much more global attention and scrutiny being placed on the, the, the life within that country.

So is there any suggestion that Raisi might have actually been targeted, that perhaps this helicopter crash was not actually an accident, but rather someone was perhaps trying to get rid of him?

The suspicions are almost inescapable. Iran and Israel sort of exist in a state of perpetual, you know, low intensity conflict. But it's also true that there are foggy patches of mountainous area that are difficult to get past. The helicopter wasn't exactly new, and these accidents do happen. So I think that there's always going to be this air of suspicion, given the level of disorder that we're seeing in the Middle East these days with the war between Israel and Hamas. And then all the other moving parts around it, many of which are being sort of rotated by the Iranians through their proxies. So Hezbollah in Lebanon, and then also with the Houthis in Yemen. So the Iranians have had this long standing ambition to shape the Middle East. And because of there are all these intrigues around there, it's almost only natural that you would suspect that there was some sort of foul play in the death of her. Easy.

We'll be right back. So Chris, I want to explore a little bit more this relationship between Israel and Iran before this helicopter crash. What can you tell me about what President Raisi actually said about Israel in the lead up to this event?

So Israel and Iran have had these sort of tit for tat strikes on each other's interests or even territory. In April, there was a missile attack that hit the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's embassy in Damascus in Syria. The Israelis never claimed it, which is their policy, but it was pretty much understood that that was something that that Israel had done. They see the encroaching Iranian military support as a threat to the state of Israel. So when that happened, Raisi said that any Israeli retaliation against Iranian territory could result in their being, quote unquote, nothing left of the Zionist regime.

He goes on to say that.

Zionist Israeli regime has been committing oppression against the people of Palestine for 75 years. So the Iranian revolutionary government has focused sort of specifically on the the plight of the Palestinian people since the foundation of the Iranian revolutionary government in 1979. This is a constant rhetorical focus, but it's also something that they actually provide support for Hamas. They provide support for militants that are going to push back against the Israelis. So it's all this sort of I don't want to say grandiose, but it's very, sort of broad statements. They're sort of galvanizing statements that Raisi made that and these are a perpetual focus of any Iranian regime.

And so what has Israel said, if anything, in response to the helicopter crash?

They've said very little. There have been lots of comments from other government leaders, lots of sort of expressions of support, expressions of concern. But, I mean, one of the things that's most surprising to me is when this happened, the Iranians themselves were fairly quick to say, look, we think that this was a crash that happened because of the difficult flying conditions. So again, you see this very interesting pattern where the Iranians are very careful about their wording and about their framing of certain events, and they want to signal in a way that this is not necessarily an Israeli conspiracy. This may be something that's just an unfortunate thing that befell Raisi. So just to step back for a minute, obviously Israel is quite tied up with the war with Hamas. That's sort of been evolving and escalating and becoming more controversial, more collateral deaths. There's still the hostages that are being held by Hamas or other ones that have not been recovered yet. That's going on with Israel. But at the same time, Iran has its hands full. They recognize that they have a somewhat ossified political leadership, meaning that they've got very sort of older political people in power in Iran. And they may be, to a certain degree, out of step with their public. They know that if they escalate things with Israel, things could get out of hand domestically for Iran. So they're interested in maintaining a certain amount of stability at home. And one of the things that's happened since this news broke about Raisi and the crash of the helicopter is there's been a surge of people, Iranian people posting memes and jokes, images of Iranians celebrating, setting off fireworks, people who are very unhappy with the leadership in Iran, and they're expressing it. So they are aware that there is some structural unhappiness, I guess you could call it, with their regime. They're not keen to to agitate that any further.

And so even if Israel is not involved in this particular crash, could this still impact the war between Hamas and Israel, and if so, how?

Well, I mean, I think one of the biggest ways it could impact it is if this results in a new leader. So there was the expectation, the possibility that Raisi would eventually succeed the Ayatollah Khomeini. So if that happened, then he would become the new sort of supreme leader of Iran. But it's the supreme leader who, you know, he and his council will set the the standards for public morality effectively. So that's an incredibly powerful whereas the the president is something more akin to a domestic sort of, you know, governor type situation. So since this news broke about Raisi and the crash of the helicopter does open up this question of, well, who is going to succeed this man, the supreme leader who is now in his mid 80s, there has been quite a bit of speculation that the most likely successor could actually be Ali Khamenei's son. So this is a man named Mojtaba Khamenei. The thing is, if that happens, then what you have is sort of a monarch system where the the son of the leader or the supreme leader takes over, and that is essentially the political system that helped cause the Islamic revolution. In 1979, there was this revolt against the Shah of Iran, which was a which was like a monarch. They were fed up with it. And the Islamic revolution was about using the morality of Islam in a very sort of, you know, ultraconservative interpretation of it as a system of governance. They might have a legitimacy issue if if Ali Khamenei's son ends up the supreme leader.

And so what about relations more broadly between the warring countries in the Middle East? Because obviously it's an incredibly tense time, not just between Hamas and Israel. What possible impact could the death of Iran's president have on the wider region?

So you have to think that, you know, whenever there anything rattles the leadership structure of Iran, it's enough of an event to make people look again, to see, well, how is this going to affect the wider picture of stability in the Middle East? It's hard for us to sort of get our minds around. But eventually what's happening between Israel and Hamas and this has been a, you know, a brutal sort of exercise that has caused a lot of bloodshed on the side of the Palestinians. It's changed a lot of global perceptions about Israel and the Palestinian cause. These things are lasting. But the the fact is, eventually the war will probably end in some way. And when it does, there is going to be a an appetite for some sort of new stability and new peace. And into that we might see that if Iran has has learned a lesson about how far it can push the destabilization before it boomerangs back onto itself, we might see see some change there. I mean, it really is at this moment a wait and see. But you have to imagine there is a period in the future where that war between Israel and Hamas pauses. And in that we'll see Iran. Iran's not going to go away, but is it going to change something about its political culture and its political aspirations in the region? And if it does, would that happen or would that coincide with new leadership? I think that's a question that a lot of people will be asking themselves.

Well, thank you so much, Chris, for your time.

Thank you. Sam.

Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by Tammy Mills. Our head of audio is Tom McKendrick. The Morning Edition is a production of The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. If you enjoy the show and want more of our journalism, subscribe to our newspapers today. It's the best way to support what we do. Search the age or Smartcamo forward slash. Subscribe and sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter to receive a comprehensive summary of the day's most important news, analysis and insights in your inbox every day. Links are in the show. Notes. I'm Samantha Selinger. Morris. This is the morning edition. Thanks for listening.