Inside Politics: The good, the bad and the ugly in the Albanese government

Published Apr 4, 2024, 6:01 PM

This week, national affairs editor James Massola and political correspondent Paul Sakkal join Jacqueline Maley to look at how the Albanese government is going ahead of the next election, likely to take place next year, after an interesting few months of political ups and downs.

They also to examine the ups and downs of political behaviour, after leaked documents revealed potential punishments for MPs and senators who are found to breach parliamentary standards.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis from Jacqueline Maley. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter here.

From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, this is inside politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley. It's Friday, April 5th. Parliament House in Canberra has entered its pre-budget hibernation with no question time and no courtyard press conferences due until all the politicians return for the budget in early May. We're also nearing the last full year of this parliamentary term, and what Labour hopes is the first of at least two terms in government, after it previously spent nine years languishing on the opposition benches. Today on the podcast, we're going to take stock and look at how the Albanese government is going ahead of the next election, which is likely to take place next year after an interesting few months of political ups and downs. We're also going to examine the ups and downs of political behaviour. After leaked documents revealed potential punishments for MPs and senators who are found to have breached parliamentary standards. The draft document recommends docking 5% of the salary of misbehaving politicians or even suspending them from Parliament. Joining me to discuss are national affairs editor James Mazzola and political correspondent Paul Sichel. James. Parliamentarians have fled Canberra for a bit of a break before the May budget. So now that the dust has settled from the last sitting period, what's your view on how the government is faring so far this year?

Look, I'd say a couple of things, jacki. They landed the stage three tax cuts.

It's a fantastic result for Australian taxpayers. All 13.6 million of them will get a tax cut.

The changes that are sort of made them more equitable.

We make sure that no one is left behind. And importantly as well, no one is held back. Average workers will get more than double the tax cut they were.

But since late last year, when the High Court issued its NZ ruling, which said essentially that you can't keep people in indefinite detention, they've had, I guess you'd say a sort of rolling series of problems of stories.

Reporting a manhunt is intensifying this morning for a former immigration detainee, released as part of a High Court ruling, who has managed to escape police detention. The opposition is calling for heads to roll amid revelations two men released from immigration detention in recent weeks have been arrested, including one accused of assaulting a woman. Under new emergency laws being fast tracked today. That group will now be monitored with ankle tracking devices and curfews will be imposed. Anyone breaching the conditions faces immediate jail time.

The Commonwealth Government did not want to do this. If I had any legal power to do it, I would keep every one of those people in detention.

We're now looking at a second High Court judgment being handed down soon. The government preemptively tried to pass to rush through some laws to deal with that second cohort potentially being released that blow up in their face. You know, everyone from the Greens to the liberals to the crossbench in the Senate rejected those laws. So now they're essentially sitting there. It's an unsolved problem. It will be an unsolved problem for the next 5 or 6 weeks at least. There's going to be some more hearings and more Senate inquiry hearings into that. And I look, frankly, I'd have to say they've handled it quite badly. And it's a problem I think we're going to see continue for them in the form of fresh High Court challenges all the way through to the election. So I'd say it's really a mixed bag.

Paul, what's your assessment of the government's sort of performance so far just this year? They've also done something on religious discrimination. Or you might say they haven't done something on religious discrimination.

Yeah. The religious discrimination debate I think is, is quite telling. I think it shows where the Prime Minister's head is at in relation to political risk. Last year he spent a lot of time on the voice referendum. It went extremely poorly. I don't think that's an overstatement, and I think it proved to the government that, you know, governing at a federal level for Labour on risky, big picture social issues is pretty hard. And it's a place Labour doesn't want to be again this year, to have a big fight with the religious schools and the coalition on an issue that can be weaponised into a huge culture war. And the Prime Minister effectively said to his caucus a couple of weeks ago, Unless Peter Dutton fully backs us on this, which is very, very unlikely to happen, we're just not doing this thing. So it shows that he's going into what could be an election year focused on primarily the cost of living and not wanting to take on risk elsewhere.

Yeah, I think the coalition's trying to frame that as a broken promise from labor and from Albanese.

Here, is that Anthony Albanese made a promise. This is another broken promise. It's another lie about presenting legislation on this subject, on religious freedom to the Parliament and the Australian people. We would.

And he did say prior to the election that he would address this issue. But previous prime ministers Morrison, for example, have promised to deal with this matter too. And they've failed to. Famously, five liberals crossed the floor in the previous parliament because they weren't happy with the Morrison formulation. You know, the laws that they were proposing. I actually think it's there's two things I'd say about it. One is that Albanese clearly doesn't want to spend the political capital on a culture issue that, as Paul said, can be weaponised. But two, I actually think it's smart to sort of back away and say, I'm not doing this without bipartisanship, because these issues do tend to create divisions in society. It's sort of a no win for the prime minister, no win situation. You can't please everyone with laws like this. So why have the fight unless you've got the political cover? So tactically, I think it's smart.

You sort of thrown it back on the coalition to make moves towards a compromise, I suppose. Paul, I want to take a look at the polls. They're only a snapshot, so they're of limited usefulness, but they are important. What are they telling us, Paul?

They are a snapshot. And they they only tell us what people are feeling or saying to pollsters about how they would vote now, but they know when they answer that question. There is not actually an election tomorrow. So these numbers are meaningful to some extent. I think it's a really interesting point in political polling and point in the political cycle. There's like jeopardy and risk for both parties at this stage. Um, if you look at polling, since the government came in both on his personal ratings, Albanese has collapsed enormously on personal numbers. He's gone from a plus 35 rating around that in both Newspoll and our pollster resolve, which means that there's about 35% of the population who believe he's doing a better job than those who believe he's doing it. Bad job. His numbers are now about negative ten, uh, which is right around the same mark as Peter Dutton. In fact, in our most recent resolve poll last week, Peter Dutton's net satisfaction rating is better than the Prime Minister. James did. Just point out to me in a conversation just before this. This has happened to previous prime ministers. John Howard had poor satisfaction numbers and still one election. So that's not the end of the world for labor. What's actually more troubling for them is that their primary vote is stuck in a really historically low position. They got in at the last election with about a 32.5 percentage point primary vote. That was a historic low for them. They're at a point where they only have a two seat majority. Their primary vote in both Newspoll and Resolve is about 3132, which is traditionally not a place labor can win elections at. That might change the cost of living. Crisis eases and we get closer to an election, and the government starts thinking about its polling numbers more strongly and thinking about the election. And on the other hand, the coalition, you know, close to an election a year out, possibly even less, we'll be pretty worried about where its primary vote is as well. A year ago, they were in the doldrums. They were like 30%, which is kind of absurdly low for the coalition because they don't win many, many preferences. They're now in the mid to high 30s in most polls. But to win an election, they really need to be in the 40s. Uh, so they want to grind labor down into minority position in the next term, but they also need to be competitive themselves and win seats, and they're not quite there yet. So there's jeopardy and risks for both parties, politicians.

They all like to be popular. Of course, Albanese would prefer to be up, you know, in the stratosphere still, but his pitch going into the next election is going to be where you haven't had a government the same person, the same prime minister, re-elected since John Howard in 2004. Don't change horses now. Why would you trust the other guy? Maybe it's not. The most inspiring pitch. But you know, we're not doing a bad job. You can trust us to manage the economy. You can trust us because we're adults. That's going to be the centerpiece of their pitch. And to Paul's point, if there isn't a four in front of the coalition's primary vote, I don't see how they're winning back. I think it's 18 or 19 seats, isn't anything on 55. That's a huge number of seats to come back into majority government in. So there's a decent chance, I'd say, of a of a hung parliament and a minority government next time around.

Okay. So when labor is going to the polls next time, as you say, they might make a pitch for stability of government. But what what sort of major achievements will they be able to look back upon as a government and boast about?

Look, there's a few things union friendly legislation, not that they describe it like that, but things like restoring or improving or expanding the rights of workers to bargain collectively, which has put upward pressure on pay. We know that because people's pay is starting to catch up to the very high cost of living. Uh, you know, the CPI that we've seen over the last 18 months to two years. So they'll talk about that, they'll talk about changes that made that a family friendly, like cheaper medicines, which is a policy that actually pinched from the coalition, um, cheaper insulin for diabetics. They'll talk about childcare changes, expanded paid parental leave, putting superannuation on paid parental leave, things like that. And then of course front and centre will be we've given everyone a tax cut, not just the top end of town, so-called major losses. I'd say the most obvious voice to Parliament. I think that's I questioned, though, whether that's going to actually weigh them down heading into the next election. But yeah, it's unquestionably the biggest loss so far.

And just like more big picture than policy achievements in terms of just like the vibe of the government. I wondered, James, whether you thought they have enough of a record of achievement to point to at the next election about, you know, what, what they have done for the country and how they've taken it forward. I mean, in the early months, the government's main message and the media commentary as well was, you know, the adults are in charge. Penny Wong was overseas restoring our credibility. Albanese looked looked like a stable leader and, you know, a kind of decent guy. I think that wore off after about six months or a year around the voice referendum, the kind of adults back in charge narrative, they flailed in the in the middle and back end of last year, the stage three tax cuts kind of brought them back into the game, but that hasn't lasted maybe as long as we thought, either. In terms of the halo effect, do you think they've done enough yet to embed in people's minds a narrative of what they have been about to to talk about their record? Or is this year crucial for that?

I think this year, and in particular, this budget is crucial for that. No, I'll disagree with you, Paul. I think they've lost paint, obviously, on The Voice, and I think they've lost significant or at least a measure of trust with voters of their handling of the high court's ruling. You know, immigration, which is often a very difficult issue for labor. But I don't think I agree that they've lost that sense of the adults back in charge. Now, Jack, you would remember you were here back in 2013 when Tony Abbott came to power. And that was their line to the adults are back in charge. We're going to slow down politics. We're going to, you know, take charge of the media cycle. And then, you know, there were scandals about people, MPs taking trips overseas to go bike riding. And Holden was chased out of the country. And then there was that amazing 2014 budget, which from a journalist point of view, was just the gift that kept on giving payments.

Is it liberating for a politician to decide? Election promises don't matter.

Well, I don't accept that question. The biggest, most significant promise we made was to fix the budget and strengthen the Australian economy. And we will. And this budget does that.

But you say significant promise. What does that mean about all the other promises, particularly the Prime Minister made? Were they insignificant, frivolous, not to be taken seriously.

All serious, and they're all being.

Implemented except that many of them have been broken.

Well, that's your assertion.

But from the people's point of view was pretty horrific. Let's be frank. Um, that I think was an example of losing that sense of the adults being back in charge. And, you know, within two years you had Tony Abbott being challenged by an empty chair. Now we're not there at all.

I mean, I've said this before on this podcast that I actually find it surprising that they haven't lost more paint, given the huge failure that was the voice to Parliament referendum last year. And we heard this week about all the money that went into it, to no avail, to the yes campaign. I just wondered what you both think in terms of how the party is going internally, in terms of morale. Maybe in the light of that failure last year, labor has a very long and horrible history of internal party wars and backstabbing, which, you know, we have traumatic memories from. Is that sort of thing happening under Albanese, James, or is it more cohesive?

No, it's a lot more cohesive, Jack. And this is, I guess, the benefit of having someone as PM, you know, when labor is in power, who is such a creature of the party? Anthony Albanese has for almost his entire life been a party official or an elected MP for the Labor Party. You know, you had a bit of time in the private sector. I think he worked at the Commonwealth Bank for a few years, but most of his adult life he's been a labor person, you know, a labor operative, a labor MP. And it shows. Unlike Kevin Rudd and to a lesser extent, Julia Gillard, he understands this party. He's extremely conscious of the party's history and the need to keep it united. And you see this manifest in really obvious ways. Yes, they were in a funk last year. At the end of last year, when you had the voice loss, followed by the High Court ruling, they were terrible things, but you didn't see caucus start to leak. We've barely seen any leaks from cabinet. Uh, those are two extremely telling things. Like if people, you know, we'd all know about it if Anthony wasn't holding the show together. But Albanese to date, he's doing a pretty good job of that.

I reckon there's a I fully agree with that. And I think this is missed in some commentary how good Albanese is at managing internals. I think there's an argument to be made that like maybe since Howard, these two leaders, Dutton and Albanese, are the most in tune on their party internals and most able to deal with their backbench and just be great operators within their party. They're both absolutely creatures of the party.

Just quickly, I want to cast forward to the budget. I want to ask both of you how much the budget is going to be about setting the government up for the next election, and what we're likely to see in it. Paul.

Yeah, well, I think as our, um, colleague Rachel Klein wrote this week, it's all a matter of how keen the government is to spend in this budget. Inflation is tracking in the right trajectory, but, uh, there's always the risk that more government spending might kind of fuel that again and potentially delay a rate rise. And that's no good for the government politically.

I think we'll see a surplus. I think we will see, um, some targeted cost of living relief. The Medicare measure last year, for example, that made that encourage bulk billing for, I think it was kids under 16 and pensioners, that sort of thing, which is not inflationary, which doesn't, you know, perhaps delay the next rate cut that the government is desperately hoping for. I think we'll see some more infrastructure projects announced. Um, surprise, surprise, this is a PM who was an infrastructure minister and he loves to build things.

Yeah. So Labor's been reasonably well behaved in government. I think we could say let's talk now about the behaviour more generally of Parliament House, because that's been in the news a little bit this week. We've seen leaked documents about a possible code of conduct for parliamentarians. Paul, can you tell us a little bit about the background and what we've seen this week?

Yeah, this all stems from the Brittany Higgins affair, and it's a recommendation from the Jenkins report that we should have a code of conduct in the Parliament across parliamentary group of MPs has been working on this for a really long time. It goes to, you know, the use of alcohol in the parliament. The potential for commissioners to sanction MPs, dock their pay for their there to be recommendations to the House of Representatives or the Senate to suspend MPs because only the chambers actually have that power. Constitutionally, um, it's been delayed by a really long time. And Olivia Ireland, our colleague, has obtained, uh, some of the draft this week.

What are the points of conflict likely to be? I mean, I was actually slightly surprised to learn or to remember that there isn't a code of conduct for parliamentarians at the moment. This will be the first one, which I think some people in the broader community might be a bit horrified by. Why would anyone object to this? James?

It's a really good question, because in our workplace, in, you know, 99.9% of workplaces, I would guess there are codes of conduct. There is a ministerial code of conduct, and there is a code of conduct for staff, but there isn't a code of conduct for MPs. And I think that's essentially because, you know, the people of Australia elect their sovereign officials. You know, the people are sovereign ultimately. So that's why it's not there. Why would people object? Because this is a place that runs on convention, on things not being written down on quite historically speaking, quite agreements. You know, we won't expose that backbencher of yours for rorting his flights if you don't expose our backbencher for rorting her flights. Now, that's something that's happening less and less. This is a great example of dragging this building into the 21st century. I think it's a no brainer to do it. But yeah, I mean, to Paul's point, clearly there are some MPs who are reluctant and, you know, there's no real sanction. I mean, there's been no mechanism to sanction, uh, in this kind of practical way, like the 5% pay docking. I think that's I think it's a no brainer. It's not hard, you know, don't turn up at work and get drunk.

Yeah, yeah. Well, I mean, I suppose that's what we're getting at, isn't it, that the place is run on convention and conventions around behaviour have perhaps been out of step with the general community. What are we likely to see next on this, Paul? When when will the code of conduct be made public and possibly made official?

Well, I think that the answer to that is really unclear, because this new body, which will actually have the power to do all of these things, was meant to be. I think the government wanted to have it up and running by October last year, and we're still at the point where it's been debated and leaked to the media because it's nowhere near release. So I think this could be something we don't see for a while. Who knows, maybe it might be quicker than that, but I just think on the on the previous point as well about this all being a no brainer, the counterargument is that this is not a normal workplace, and at the end of the day, MPs are accountable to the public through elections, and that's the way we police their behaviour. Unless they've committed crimes, in which case they're subject to the rule of law like all the rest of us, so that there is a natural instinct among some MPs, at least, that bringing in rules that may be overbearing might inhibit the normal running of the place.

God forbid that they should be inhibited. Anyway, um, we'll have to wait and see when it comes to the code of conduct. Gentlemen, thank you very much. And I just need to briefly embarrass Paul Sichel, who, of course, last week was awarded the Wallace Brown Award for the best Young press gallery journalist in Canberra.

Well deserved.

We're very proud of him.

No better prize. And being a guest on the pod.

Jackie O. Stop it. Thanks, guys.

Thanks to.

Today's episode of Inside Politics was produced by Kai Wong and Rachel Clun, with technical assistance by Debbie Harrington. Our executive producer is Ruby Schwartz. Inside politics is a production of The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. If you enjoy the show and want more of our journalism, subscribe to our newspapers today. It's the best way to support what we do. Search the age or smash combo forward slash. Subscribe. I'm Jacqueline Maley, this is Inside politics. Thank you for listening.

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