From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. This is inside politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley, it's Friday, July 4th. The creation of a national anti-corruption commission was a key labor promise before it won government in 2022. The commission was duly created and this week it released the findings of its first ever investigation. But was it a little anti-climactic? Can we hope for bigger and better corruption busting in the future? Plus, we check in on economic matters, including interest rate cuts and the confusing matter of the Trump tariffs and their effect on the Australian economy. Joining me to discuss we have first time Inside politics guest, a much honoured new star, federal politics reporter Olivia Island, and our longtime special guest star, senior economics correspondent Shane Wright. Welcome to you both.

From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. This is inside politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley, it's Friday, July 4th. The creation of a national anti-corruption commission was a key labor promise before it won government in 2022. The commission was duly created and this week it released the findings of its first ever investigation. But was it a little anti-climactic? Can we hope for bigger and better corruption busting in the future? Plus, we check in on economic matters, including interest rate cuts and the confusing matter of the Trump tariffs and their effect on the Australian economy. Joining me to discuss we have first time Inside politics guest, a much honoured new star, federal politics reporter Olivia Island, and our longtime special guest star, senior economics correspondent Shane Wright. Welcome to you both.

Good to be here. Thank you very much.

Good to be here. Thank you very much.

Don't take any pressure from what Jack just said to you, Olivia, like, as a special guest star, I've come to lean into it.

Don't take any pressure from what Jack just said to you, Olivia, like, as a special guest star, I've come to lean into it.

We can call you a veteran, which is a bit of a backhanded compliment. My favorite kind.

We can call you a veteran, which is a bit of a backhanded compliment. My favorite kind.

And I. And I accept that. I'll accept.

And I. And I accept that. I'll accept.

That. Live. At the start of the week, the newly minted National Anti-Corruption Commission released the findings of its first ever investigation. What was it about and what were the findings?

That. Live. At the start of the week, the newly minted National Anti-Corruption Commission released the findings of its first ever investigation. What was it about and what were the findings?

So a senior public servant had corruptly promoted her sister's fiancee to his dream job in the Department of Home Affairs. The investigation found the public servant abused her office by promoting the fiancee as a candidate for a position, and then praised him to colleagues, created the job requisition. Um approved it herself, and she also forged a signature to fast track the onboarding and the way that the commission approved this was the case. They were able to obtain text messages between her and her sister about the entire process of getting the fiance into the Department of Home Affairs. They're pretty, pretty awkward kind of text messages. A great example is the woman who hired the fiance. When she hired him, she texted her sister saying, I just want to hug him. Thank God he stuck his hand out first. And then the sister responded saying, what a good boy. He's such a good boy. So really kind of proving this, uh, attitude of using the system to your advantage effectively.

So a senior public servant had corruptly promoted her sister's fiancee to his dream job in the Department of Home Affairs. The investigation found the public servant abused her office by promoting the fiancee as a candidate for a position, and then praised him to colleagues, created the job requisition. Um approved it herself, and she also forged a signature to fast track the onboarding and the way that the commission approved this was the case. They were able to obtain text messages between her and her sister about the entire process of getting the fiance into the Department of Home Affairs. They're pretty, pretty awkward kind of text messages. A great example is the woman who hired the fiance. When she hired him, she texted her sister saying, I just want to hug him. Thank God he stuck his hand out first. And then the sister responded saying, what a good boy. He's such a good boy. So really kind of proving this, uh, attitude of using the system to your advantage effectively.

Yeah. And really active deception.

Yeah. And really active deception.

Very active deception. And using her position of power to just get this person through and get him through very quickly.

Very active deception. And using her position of power to just get this person through and get him through very quickly.

The finding of the investigation was basically that there was corruption there. Um, it was sort of a case of nepotism, I suppose. What was the outcome or what were the penalty, if any?

The finding of the investigation was basically that there was corruption there. Um, it was sort of a case of nepotism, I suppose. What was the outcome or what were the penalty, if any?

So it was unclear what the actual outcome was from the actual NAC report. So the NAC did their investigation and they didn't identify this person. So the way we found out what the outcome was for this person was to go to the Department of Home Affairs, and the department confirmed that her employment was ceased. But she hasn't really lost any sort of reputation, I suppose, because the NAC decided to keep her identity a secret.

So it was unclear what the actual outcome was from the actual NAC report. So the NAC did their investigation and they didn't identify this person. So the way we found out what the outcome was for this person was to go to the Department of Home Affairs, and the department confirmed that her employment was ceased. But she hasn't really lost any sort of reputation, I suppose, because the NAC decided to keep her identity a secret.

Yeah. Okay. And why would they have decided that? Why would they have protected her identity?

Yeah. Okay. And why would they have decided that? Why would they have protected her identity?

They based it off a couple of reasons. The big one that they argued was the issue of identifying witnesses. So because this woman got someone in who was the fiancé of her sister, it would become quite obvious as to who the sister was and who the fiancé was. And those two weren't found to be corrupt. It was only this particular woman. But experts in the integrity space were arguing that this is a pretty loose, uh, reason to have someone de-identified. Um, they're sort of saying that in any kind of typical prosecution case, witnesses are identified all the time, and that is a completely acceptable and normal element to it. So, uh, yeah, a lot of integrity experts are kind of claiming that this is sort of a cultural thing with the knack of just remaining so secret.

They based it off a couple of reasons. The big one that they argued was the issue of identifying witnesses. So because this woman got someone in who was the fiancé of her sister, it would become quite obvious as to who the sister was and who the fiancé was. And those two weren't found to be corrupt. It was only this particular woman. But experts in the integrity space were arguing that this is a pretty loose, uh, reason to have someone de-identified. Um, they're sort of saying that in any kind of typical prosecution case, witnesses are identified all the time, and that is a completely acceptable and normal element to it. So, uh, yeah, a lot of integrity experts are kind of claiming that this is sort of a cultural thing with the knack of just remaining so secret.

Nepotism in the public service is obviously inappropriate and has been found to be corrupt in this case. But the matter doesn't it doesn't seem like a huge systemic sort of headline corruption controversy, you know, the likes of which we're more used to seeing here in New South Wales, for example, with ICAC, which has made some very big, big decisions and big cases, it almost felt a little flat. I'm gonna say, for the first decision of the National Anti-Corruption Commission, how was it received around Parliament?

Nepotism in the public service is obviously inappropriate and has been found to be corrupt in this case. But the matter doesn't it doesn't seem like a huge systemic sort of headline corruption controversy, you know, the likes of which we're more used to seeing here in New South Wales, for example, with ICAC, which has made some very big, big decisions and big cases, it almost felt a little flat. I'm gonna say, for the first decision of the National Anti-Corruption Commission, how was it received around Parliament?

It was almost crickets when it came to what the like, how people reacted to it. Frankly, there was really no reaction because it was such a minor case, as you say, within the public service. I think the Albanese government made a very deliberate decision to ensure the NAcc wasn't going to be this kind of big tabloid kind of organisation that was going to get significant kind of cases and attention. And that's caused a lot of criticism throughout, because people are starting to question whether or not this organisation is actually doing what it's supposed to do, which is to keep very powerful individuals to account. And a lot of integrity experts argue, the way that you do that is identifying people and actually going for cases that are like higher profile than sort of these menial kind of mid-career public servants.

It was almost crickets when it came to what the like, how people reacted to it. Frankly, there was really no reaction because it was such a minor case, as you say, within the public service. I think the Albanese government made a very deliberate decision to ensure the NAcc wasn't going to be this kind of big tabloid kind of organisation that was going to get significant kind of cases and attention. And that's caused a lot of criticism throughout, because people are starting to question whether or not this organisation is actually doing what it's supposed to do, which is to keep very powerful individuals to account. And a lot of integrity experts argue, the way that you do that is identifying people and actually going for cases that are like higher profile than sort of these menial kind of mid-career public servants.

Yeah. And just sort of one job or one case or one job. So speaking of sort of bigger, like bigger whales, if you like. There was the robodebt investigation, which listeners will remember were debts that were raised between 2015 and 2019 by the former coalition government, and they were raised using um average Australian Tax Office income information. And a lot of them were, I think, about half a million people in the end were asked to repay debts that they didn't actually owe. That was a huge scandal for the Morrison government. It was, of course, examined by a Royal commission which was commissioned by the Albanese government. And there was talk that the National Anti-Corruption Commission would be involved in that. Can you bring us up to speed?

Yeah. And just sort of one job or one case or one job. So speaking of sort of bigger, like bigger whales, if you like. There was the robodebt investigation, which listeners will remember were debts that were raised between 2015 and 2019 by the former coalition government, and they were raised using um average Australian Tax Office income information. And a lot of them were, I think, about half a million people in the end were asked to repay debts that they didn't actually owe. That was a huge scandal for the Morrison government. It was, of course, examined by a Royal commission which was commissioned by the Albanese government. And there was talk that the National Anti-Corruption Commission would be involved in that. Can you bring us up to speed?

That has been quite a rigmarole for the National Anti-Corruption Commission. So basically, the Commission at first decided not to investigate these six individuals that were identified by the Royal Commission as needing to be investigated.

That has been quite a rigmarole for the National Anti-Corruption Commission. So basically, the Commission at first decided not to investigate these six individuals that were identified by the Royal Commission as needing to be investigated.

And this is this is sort of senior public servants that the commissioner was very critical of in her investigation.

And this is this is sort of senior public servants that the commissioner was very critical of in her investigation.

Yes. And, um, that really raised a lot of controversy. And so there's actually a body that is, uh, in charge of overseeing the NAC. So it's kind of like the NAC for the NAC, if you will. Um, and that body investigated that decision and found that the commissioner of the National Anti-Corruption Commission, Paul Brereton, had acted in a way that made the case sort of not go in the direction that it should have gone, because he didn't fully pull himself out of a case when he knew someone involved in this robodebt saga.

Yes. And, um, that really raised a lot of controversy. And so there's actually a body that is, uh, in charge of overseeing the NAC. So it's kind of like the NAC for the NAC, if you will. Um, and that body investigated that decision and found that the commissioner of the National Anti-Corruption Commission, Paul Brereton, had acted in a way that made the case sort of not go in the direction that it should have gone, because he didn't fully pull himself out of a case when he knew someone involved in this robodebt saga.

He personally knew the person.

He personally knew the person.

Yes.

Yes.

Um, and yeah, well, that's Canberra for you as well, isn't it. Very. It's a small town, Canberra.

Um, and yeah, well, that's Canberra for you as well, isn't it. Very. It's a small town, Canberra.

Um, so then, uh, the NAC has decided to reinvestigate this case, and so they are currently now back in on it. It's currently underway. Paul Brereton isn't involved this time. And the latest update from the NAC on this is that it's still being investigated.

Um, so then, uh, the NAC has decided to reinvestigate this case, and so they are currently now back in on it. It's currently underway. Paul Brereton isn't involved this time. And the latest update from the NAC on this is that it's still being investigated.

Do you think that that means that the NAC is sort of open to accusations of being a bit toothless, you know, being a bit basically a bit weak? I mean, the Albanese government brought it in with so much fanfare, and it was a bit of a political play, I suppose, during that 2022 election campaign to shine a light on some of the more dubious and unethical practices that we'd seen happen within the Morrison government and among some of the ministers there. Is it just is it all for show? I mean, is it actually going to sort of brush out any real corruption? Do you think.

Do you think that that means that the NAC is sort of open to accusations of being a bit toothless, you know, being a bit basically a bit weak? I mean, the Albanese government brought it in with so much fanfare, and it was a bit of a political play, I suppose, during that 2022 election campaign to shine a light on some of the more dubious and unethical practices that we'd seen happen within the Morrison government and among some of the ministers there. Is it just is it all for show? I mean, is it actually going to sort of brush out any real corruption? Do you think.

It's really a watch this space? But we've been saying that since it began in mid 2023. So it is um, it's getting a real kind of cohort of people, particularly like lawyers, integrity activists, uh, in this space, getting incredibly frustrated and are calling it a toothless organisation. And I think, you know, the Albanese government created the NAC, but no government wants to get in trouble and no government wants to have bad publicity. So I think there were a lot of provisions in this legislation, particularly that a lot of hearings are in closed door hearings like they're not public. Even this like recent case, it was completely closed. We had no idea about it until it came out. And also, the NAC does get to decide what kind of cases they can put public media releases out about. So we we don't know necessarily if this is the first investigation they've completed or if there are others. Um, it's it's very difficult to kind of keep up to date as to what kinds of cases it is looking into. Aside from robo debt, because there's been so much interest in it. Um, so yeah, it definitely has established this kind of reputation by certain people as being a toothless organisation.

It's really a watch this space? But we've been saying that since it began in mid 2023. So it is um, it's getting a real kind of cohort of people, particularly like lawyers, integrity activists, uh, in this space, getting incredibly frustrated and are calling it a toothless organisation. And I think, you know, the Albanese government created the NAC, but no government wants to get in trouble and no government wants to have bad publicity. So I think there were a lot of provisions in this legislation, particularly that a lot of hearings are in closed door hearings like they're not public. Even this like recent case, it was completely closed. We had no idea about it until it came out. And also, the NAC does get to decide what kind of cases they can put public media releases out about. So we we don't know necessarily if this is the first investigation they've completed or if there are others. Um, it's it's very difficult to kind of keep up to date as to what kinds of cases it is looking into. Aside from robo debt, because there's been so much interest in it. Um, so yeah, it definitely has established this kind of reputation by certain people as being a toothless organisation.

And sort of operating in some. With some level of secrecy or a lack of transparency to to media. Anyway, it sounds like it's really interesting, and we would definitely like to have you back on another time to talk about it and keep us updated. We have to segue sharply now to matters economics, so that our special guest star, Shane, can bring us glad tidings, because it sounds like the reserve Bank is going to cut us a break next week.

And sort of operating in some. With some level of secrecy or a lack of transparency to to media. Anyway, it sounds like it's really interesting, and we would definitely like to have you back on another time to talk about it and keep us updated. We have to segue sharply now to matters economics, so that our special guest star, Shane, can bring us glad tidings, because it sounds like the reserve Bank is going to cut us a break next week.

Well, it's if you've got debt, it's a good thing.

Well, it's if you've got debt, it's a good thing.

Well, let's assume that I've got some debt, okay.

Well, let's assume that I've got some debt, okay.

I would never make that assumption about you.

I would never make that assumption about you.

I live.

I live.

In Sydney.

In Sydney.

So.

So.

Yeah, but, yeah, like, um, the reserve Bank. It's been talking about quiet. The RBA, since it cut rates in May has been quiet very little in terms of public commentary, but, uh, financial markets and economists think or Michelle Bullock, She's going to stand up next Tuesday after the their meeting and go, look, we're going to take another quarter percentage point off the cash rate, which would take it down to 3.6 on a mortgage of your caliber Maly, uh, at least $100 a month saving on top of the, uh, couple of hundreds that's been saved over the from the February and, um, May cuts.

Yeah, but, yeah, like, um, the reserve Bank. It's been talking about quiet. The RBA, since it cut rates in May has been quiet very little in terms of public commentary, but, uh, financial markets and economists think or Michelle Bullock, She's going to stand up next Tuesday after the their meeting and go, look, we're going to take another quarter percentage point off the cash rate, which would take it down to 3.6 on a mortgage of your caliber Maly, uh, at least $100 a month saving on top of the, uh, couple of hundreds that's been saved over the from the February and, um, May cuts.

Okay. So let's let's without making any assumptions about the size of my mortgage one way or the other. But according to what you wrote earlier in the week, it will equal $300 a month in savings on a $600,000 mortgage. All the cuts combined since February and March. Yeah, yeah, May I should say.

Okay. So let's let's without making any assumptions about the size of my mortgage one way or the other. But according to what you wrote earlier in the week, it will equal $300 a month in savings on a $600,000 mortgage. All the cuts combined since February and March. Yeah, yeah, May I should say.

And it's all playing out because of what's going on in inflation. Um, which like we got figures last week the best like these were monthly inflation figures. They are a little bit noisier than the quarterly ones. However everyone's looked at the details of those and gone look the RBA like remember, in May, the RBA discussed whether to have a quarter or a half a percentage point cut. Yeah. And since then, the jobs market is still going nowhere. Wages growth is slightly coming down, which has been one of the concerns.

And it's all playing out because of what's going on in inflation. Um, which like we got figures last week the best like these were monthly inflation figures. They are a little bit noisier than the quarterly ones. However everyone's looked at the details of those and gone look the RBA like remember, in May, the RBA discussed whether to have a quarter or a half a percentage point cut. Yeah. And since then, the jobs market is still going nowhere. Wages growth is slightly coming down, which has been one of the concerns.

And retail sales as well are a little bit sluggish aren't they.

And retail sales as well are a little bit sluggish aren't they.

Retail sales have gone effectively nowhere since the RBA has started cutting.

Retail sales have gone effectively nowhere since the RBA has started cutting.

That brings us to the international scenario. I mean there's so much volatility obviously coming from the white House. What's the Federal Reserve doing about interest rates for Americans just quickly and.

That brings us to the international scenario. I mean there's so much volatility obviously coming from the white House. What's the Federal Reserve doing about interest rates for Americans just quickly and.

Fending fending Jerome Powell.

Fending fending Jerome Powell.

Jerome Powell. So he's the chair of the Federal Reserve in the US which is yeah, like.

Jerome Powell. So he's the chair of the Federal Reserve in the US which is yeah, like.

He's America's answer to Michelle Bullock. He is fending off like even even on Thursday Donald Trump is demanding that he resigns.

He's America's answer to Michelle Bullock. He is fending off like even even on Thursday Donald Trump is demanding that he resigns.

I'd love him to resign if he wanted to. He's done a lousy job. Look, if you were there, you'd say, well, you know, the United States is doing well. They have no inflation.

I'd love him to resign if he wanted to. He's done a lousy job. Look, if you were there, you'd say, well, you know, the United States is doing well. They have no inflation.

And Donald Trump has had a few sort of has been cooking up a feud with him for a while, and it really reignited this week.

And Donald Trump has had a few sort of has been cooking up a feud with him for a while, and it really reignited this week.

It did when he produced from a new list. I'm I is being used very heavily inside the white House. It was a list of 44 nations ranked from lowest to highest interest rates, and for some reason the US was compared with economic powerhouses such as Cape Verde, Libya, the Congo and Algeria.

It did when he produced from a new list. I'm I is being used very heavily inside the white House. It was a list of 44 nations ranked from lowest to highest interest rates, and for some reason the US was compared with economic powerhouses such as Cape Verde, Libya, the Congo and Algeria.

So basically, Donald Trump is very annoyed that the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell in particular, are keeping interest rates too high, in his opinion. What does Jerome Powell said about this? Because he made some comments at a European conference this week.

So basically, Donald Trump is very annoyed that the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell in particular, are keeping interest rates too high, in his opinion. What does Jerome Powell said about this? Because he made some comments at a European conference this week.

Yeah, he got a round of applause saying I'm just focused on my job.

Yeah, he got a round of applause saying I'm just focused on my job.

You get attacked by by the president a lot on a personal basis. Does it make your job harder?

You get attacked by by the president a lot on a personal basis. Does it make your job harder?

I'm very focused on just doing my job. I mean, there are things that the things that matter are using our tools to achieve the goals that Congress has given us. Maximum employment and Employment price stability. Financial stability. And that's that's what we focus on 100%.

I'm very focused on just doing my job. I mean, there are things that the things that matter are using our tools to achieve the goals that Congress has given us. Maximum employment and Employment price stability. Financial stability. And that's that's what we focus on 100%.

Now to get a rousing applause from a bunch of central bankers. That's a tough crowd, let me assure you. These guys don't do comedy. And he made this other point, which we haven't got onto, which is the big beautiful Bill, which is this piece of legislation that will increase America's debt by a touch over $3 trillion over the next decade, when they're running 36 trillion in debt. They had another budget deficit last month, just another $300 billion. And he just pointed out the budgets. The budget is unsustainable in its current path. So Jerome and Donald are unlikely to be sitting around the dinner table anytime soon, having a good time.

Now to get a rousing applause from a bunch of central bankers. That's a tough crowd, let me assure you. These guys don't do comedy. And he made this other point, which we haven't got onto, which is the big beautiful Bill, which is this piece of legislation that will increase America's debt by a touch over $3 trillion over the next decade, when they're running 36 trillion in debt. They had another budget deficit last month, just another $300 billion. And he just pointed out the budgets. The budget is unsustainable in its current path. So Jerome and Donald are unlikely to be sitting around the dinner table anytime soon, having a good time.

I mean, it's going to be interesting to see it play out because Jerome Powell is obviously not planning on going anywhere. He also said that they're sort of they're on pause a little bit because they don't know what the impact of all the tariffs is going to be further down the track. So they're not making any false or sudden moves before then. And speaking of tariffs, I just want you to bring us up to speed with the US tariffs and their impact on our economy, because I think a lot of people will have gotten confused or lost track. Obviously next Tuesday is 90 days since Liberation Day, when Trump announced all his sweeping tariffs on US trading partners, including Australia. And then he placed a 90 day pause on some of them. Where are we up to in terms of the tariffs that are in play on Australia now?

I mean, it's going to be interesting to see it play out because Jerome Powell is obviously not planning on going anywhere. He also said that they're sort of they're on pause a little bit because they don't know what the impact of all the tariffs is going to be further down the track. So they're not making any false or sudden moves before then. And speaking of tariffs, I just want you to bring us up to speed with the US tariffs and their impact on our economy, because I think a lot of people will have gotten confused or lost track. Obviously next Tuesday is 90 days since Liberation Day, when Trump announced all his sweeping tariffs on US trading partners, including Australia. And then he placed a 90 day pause on some of them. Where are we up to in terms of the tariffs that are in play on Australia now?

Right. There's a 10% tariff if you go into the US at the moment. It is really that simple.

Right. There's a 10% tariff if you go into the US at the moment. It is really that simple.

And then that's a baseline.

And then that's a baseline.

That's the baseline. And then there's all which there are all these other higher tariffs like we've discussed what the craziness around say China for instance. Like it ended up at 100 and I lost track of once we got into the hundreds somewhere. Yeah. But there's also say the tariffs on steel and aluminium. They are in place.

That's the baseline. And then there's all which there are all these other higher tariffs like we've discussed what the craziness around say China for instance. Like it ended up at 100 and I lost track of once we got into the hundreds somewhere. Yeah. But there's also say the tariffs on steel and aluminium. They are in place.

So are these tariffs on Australian products. All 10% at this point.

So are these tariffs on Australian products. All 10% at this point.

Which we're always at the base.

Which we're always at the base.

And that was the special deal that we kind of got allegedly, that we only got we got the low, the low tariff.

And that was the special deal that we kind of got allegedly, that we only got we got the low, the low tariff.

I wouldn't call it.

I wouldn't call it.

Special.

Special.

Because there were a lot of other this is it like say Britain, like people have talked about special Britain got this great deal like they have a tariff deal. But British imports to the exports of the United States are still getting hit with a 10% tariff. And this comes, I come back to the big beautiful bill because without the tariffs he cannot pay for the huge tax cuts. And the US. You can see it in their data right now. The big lift that they're getting in tariff revenue which was like 3/5 of nothing um at the start of the year is now I think it's around 0.8% of GDP. It's on its way to 1.2, which Trump desperately needs. And this has been his whole argument. We will bring in tariffs to pay for tax cuts. He's doing a tax switch. That is what he's doing. So he's got to do it.

Because there were a lot of other this is it like say Britain, like people have talked about special Britain got this great deal like they have a tariff deal. But British imports to the exports of the United States are still getting hit with a 10% tariff. And this comes, I come back to the big beautiful bill because without the tariffs he cannot pay for the huge tax cuts. And the US. You can see it in their data right now. The big lift that they're getting in tariff revenue which was like 3/5 of nothing um at the start of the year is now I think it's around 0.8% of GDP. It's on its way to 1.2, which Trump desperately needs. And this has been his whole argument. We will bring in tariffs to pay for tax cuts. He's doing a tax switch. That is what he's doing. So he's got to do it.

Yeah. Doesn't that prove that he's right I mean he's bringing in a source of revenue for the United States. And he's using it for the United, the people of the United States, giving it back to them.

Yeah. Doesn't that prove that he's right I mean he's bringing in a source of revenue for the United States. And he's using it for the United, the people of the United States, giving it back to them.

I'm glad you asked, Jackie. I'm glad you asked. One is he's like, say that he's not raising enough. That's so as to.

I'm glad you asked, Jackie. I'm glad you asked. One is he's like, say that he's not raising enough. That's so as to.

Pay for his tax cuts on on.

Pay for his tax cuts on on.

Going. So he's part of the big beautiful bill. They actually have had to increase the US debt limit by $5 trillion. So if you actually believe we're going to offset everything, you don't need to increase the debt limit because it's a concession that we're not going to raise enough money. The other issue, of course, is right. Say high powered, high paid Jack Maley living living there in Manhattan. She gets a tax cut on her high end purchases. But look, you're a you're a woman of fashion. You'd be buying American made, like, high end quality goods.

Going. So he's part of the big beautiful bill. They actually have had to increase the US debt limit by $5 trillion. So if you actually believe we're going to offset everything, you don't need to increase the debt limit because it's a concession that we're not going to raise enough money. The other issue, of course, is right. Say high powered, high paid Jack Maley living living there in Manhattan. She gets a tax cut on her high end purchases. But look, you're a you're a woman of fashion. You'd be buying American made, like, high end quality goods.

Bit of bit of, um, American, American sport luxury kind of stuff.

Bit of bit of, um, American, American sport luxury kind of stuff.

I think I think you'd be all over that. That's not getting hit with a tariff. However, if I'm living out, I don't know, in, uh, the back. The back hills of Queens and I'm on the average wage is around 45 40,000 US. I need cheap Chinese goods so I can clothe myself. Oh, they've gone up. So the tax which is effect is pushing up inflation on lower paid and probably helping those at the at the higher end who've also got these big tax cuts. It's a so it's really interesting in in terms of what's going on in that tax switch itself.

I think I think you'd be all over that. That's not getting hit with a tariff. However, if I'm living out, I don't know, in, uh, the back. The back hills of Queens and I'm on the average wage is around 45 40,000 US. I need cheap Chinese goods so I can clothe myself. Oh, they've gone up. So the tax which is effect is pushing up inflation on lower paid and probably helping those at the at the higher end who've also got these big tax cuts. It's a so it's really interesting in in terms of what's going on in that tax switch itself.

Okay. Just quickly the tariffs on Australian goods. So it mostly hits I think beef steel and aluminium in terms of our industries. Has it made much of an impact on the Australian economy.

Okay. Just quickly the tariffs on Australian goods. So it mostly hits I think beef steel and aluminium in terms of our industries. Has it made much of an impact on the Australian economy.

None.

None.

Okay.

Okay.

And it's actually not not none. Well the beef hasn't because one and this is goes back to Jerome Powell why he's worried about what's going on. Because the American economy people are still buying Australian beef. The 10% tariff was not going to have much of an effect because there's not enough cows in the United States. They need they need Australian cows.

And it's actually not not none. Well the beef hasn't because one and this is goes back to Jerome Powell why he's worried about what's going on. Because the American economy people are still buying Australian beef. The 10% tariff was not going to have much of an effect because there's not enough cows in the United States. They need they need Australian cows.

Yep.

Yep.

The steel and aluminium you can see, it's like the inflation bubble that's starting to occur there is coming through. We can see it in the American economy. The economy American economy contracted in the first three months of the year. Canada has gone has in April went backwards its economy because it's so intertwined with the United States. These and we actually saw some job figures earlier this week where there's people are the jobs market is starting to soften. So we may be starting to see the macro impact on the US economy more than us on the American economy because of what's going on with the tax switch. And this is why this is why he's talking to Jerome Powell saying, oh, please cut interest rates. Because what Donald Trump has done is causing.

The steel and aluminium you can see, it's like the inflation bubble that's starting to occur there is coming through. We can see it in the American economy. The economy American economy contracted in the first three months of the year. Canada has gone has in April went backwards its economy because it's so intertwined with the United States. These and we actually saw some job figures earlier this week where there's people are the jobs market is starting to soften. So we may be starting to see the macro impact on the US economy more than us on the American economy because of what's going on with the tax switch. And this is why this is why he's talking to Jerome Powell saying, oh, please cut interest rates. Because what Donald Trump has done is causing.

My immediate problem. Yeah. Yeah I find it absolutely fascinating. And you know, we're all so, so entangled with the United States, economically and otherwise, that we've got to keep an eye on it. Shane will have you back very soon, I'm sure. And, Liz, thank you so much for being on. It was such a pleasure. I hope this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship, and we'll have you on many more times. I know she's she's great. Thanks, guys. We'll see you soon.

My immediate problem. Yeah. Yeah I find it absolutely fascinating. And you know, we're all so, so entangled with the United States, economically and otherwise, that we've got to keep an eye on it. Shane will have you back very soon, I'm sure. And, Liz, thank you so much for being on. It was such a pleasure. I hope this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship, and we'll have you on many more times. I know she's she's great. Thanks, guys. We'll see you soon.

Thanks very much.

Thanks very much.

Today's episode was produced by Kai Wong. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, and Tom McKendrick is our head of audio. To listen to our episodes as soon as they drop, follow Inside Politics on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen to your podcasts. To stay up to date with all the politics, news and exclusives, visit The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald website and to support our journalism, subscribe to us by visiting The Age or smh.com.au. I'm Jacqueline Maley, thank you for listening.

Today's episode was produced by Kai Wong. Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, and Tom McKendrick is our head of audio. To listen to our episodes as soon as they drop, follow Inside Politics on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen to your podcasts. To stay up to date with all the politics, news and exclusives, visit The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald website and to support our journalism, subscribe to us by visiting The Age or smh.com.au. I'm Jacqueline Maley, thank you for listening.