One Bills LiveOBL 5/29: Under The Radar Player To Make An Impact, Projections For Davis, Moore, And Palmer
This one Bill's Live presented by Calledlida Health.
What's up, everybody, Hope you're having a wonderful Thursday afternoon.
I'm Maddi glab and I'm joined by.
CBS Sports NFL Draft analyst Chris Trepasso for the next two hours. Chris filling in for Steve Tasker. I'm filling in for Chris Brown. It's the off season where we all take some time off, so Chris, happy to have you in here today.
It's great to be back. I mean, it is the off season, but there are ot as going on right behind us on one of the Bills practice field. So football, I'm not gonna say it's close, but it's starting to ramp up. Obviously in June they'll get some time off as very well deserved. But to just hear whistles and players on the field was kind of exciting for what's coming in the next couple months.
Yep, we can hear the music bumping out at practice. Yesterday they had to be inside because of rain. Today looks like they got to get outside, which is always nice with the weather this time of the year. Lots of rain in the forecast, so nice that the weather hasn't been too terrible today, So just thinking about OTAs.
And the players out on the field.
We've got our second week of OTA practices going on right now. They'll have another week next week and then mandatory mini camp soon after that. And Chris, as we reflect on this roster, we haven't had you in here for a few weeks, and the dust has settled from the NFL Draft, and we have an idea of what this team is going to look like in the twenty twenty five season. Now, there could be some moves that we don't know that are going to happen ahead of training camp or during training camp, but we've got a pretty full.
Roster right now.
So since we haven't Haji in here in a few weeks, I just want to know what are your thoughts right now as you reflect on what the team looks like right now.
Well, I have two kind of bigger statements. I think, first off mission accomplished for what the Bills needed to do this offseason. I thought going in and after the AFC title game, in the aftermath of that, the morning after, the weeks after it was this team needs not just more players on defense, they need youth. Then they need more explosiveness and just pure athleticism. On the defensive side, we saw the Bills last season score a record number of points thirty touchdowns on the ground, thirty through the air. The defense, ultimately, and the depth of the defense is ultimately what let this team down. The Bills spent five of their first six picks on the defensive side of the ball, so I think from that perspective, Brandon Bean and company did a great job addressing those biggest needs to get over the hump, to get to a Super Bowl and to eventually win a Super Bowl. From that, I think this roster right now, and you mentioned there could be a Leonard Floyd type signing in June, we never know. I think this is the best Bill's roster overall, top to bottom, the top tier talent on offense, top tier top tier talent on defense, and then the depth that we know is so important on each side. The best Bills roster since twenty twenty, and that team broke out when thirteen and three got all the way to the AFC title Game. I just think that even though you will be relying on some more rookies than normal on the defensive side, with that big defensive heavy draft class. The offensive line is intact. You still have Josh Allen in his prime. There's some uncertainty with James Cook, but chances are he's going to be playing this season. You have the same stable of a running back group if he's back as last year. That was so good. So diverse complimented each other very well. I think the receiver group got better. We talked a lot about the receiver group. There's been a lot of talk about it this offseason, but I think that's improved. You have Dalton Kincaid coming back from an injury, still have Dawson Knox who's not even thirty yet, and you have Kean Coleman entering here too, and so much more speed and explosiveness on the defensive side. Along with those players that are established that have been here, that know the system, like you still have Matt Milano, Tredevius White comes back, Dan Jackson comes back. Those are those depth pieces that set the floor and actually raise the floor maybe in December and January, where if there is an injury, you know what you're getting at specific positions. So I think Brandon Bean, the coaching staff, the front office, pro scouting, college scouting has done the best job that they've done in the last five or six years.
This team and the scouting department, they do such a great job at reloading at the areas they need to reload at in the offseason. They are so great at identifying and sure it may be obvious to see, Okay, here's a hole on the roster, but it's not always easy to replace that hole. If somebody's walking out of the building because a free agency, or if a hole just has existed over the last year. It's not always easy to fill that hole because of restraints with your salary cap, because of where you pick in the NFL draft, because of negotiations with players. It's not the easiest thing to just say, okay, we need more defensive linemen, so let's get defensive linemen in here. There's definitely more that goes to it, and Joey Bosa was a big addition this offseason to the defensive line, as well as Larry Ogunjobi and Michael Hoyt, and of course Hoyt and Oguin Joby are going to miss those first six weeks, but to have those guys in the mix as the Bills realize who they are as a team, the identity starts to take shape and take form. I think after six weeks of the season and we know Joey Bosa is going to be out for a little bit of time, Sean McDermott, our head coach, said that he anticipates Bosa will be back for training camp, so that's always good news. But I would totally agree with you. I think every area they needed to add.
Too in the offseason they have done so.
And there are areas on the roster currently where there are going to be some big time position battles and people may think of those battles as question marks or maybe they're still a hole here because we don't have a sure starter at whether it's CB two or whether it's the other safety position. Those things are going to figure itself out throughout training camp and OTAs and mandatory mini camp.
And I think if you're the Bills, it would be easy to get complacent. They've won five straight division titles, They've been to two of the last five AFC title games. They've beaten the Chiefs four straight years in the regular season. They've been super close in the playoffs in three of those four years. To just say Hey, look, we like our core, our Dion Dawkins, our James Cooks r. Terrel Bernards are obviously Josh Allen. Let's just run it back and just see if we get a bounce here or a bounce there. The Bills haven't done that. And to your point, I like that. It's not, Hey, we need cornerback too, so let's just draft a corner in the first round and be done with it. No, they bring in Tradavius White and Dan Jackson. They bring in Derek Forrest at safety, which I think we cannot forget about him just because he wasn't a big ticket item in free agency, neither were Micah Hyde or Jordan Poyer. And when he was a full time player with the Washington Commanders two years ago, four interceptions over eighty tackles, was a really good player and was super athletic coming out of Cincinnati just a few years ago, played on that same secondary with Sauce Gardner. And then to do it in the draft with a bunchet with doubling up on defensive tackles, adding more defensive back. So I like that. It's that Brandon Bean has done it with numbers too, not just throwing one roll of the dice and say, hey, we need Maxwell Harrison to play nine hundred snaps as a rookie and be a defensive Rookie of the Year candidate, or we're totally lost at cornerback too. He's added multiple pieces to truly provide depth and to have those legitimate training camp, preseason, early season battles where you ultimately will get the best player on the field on Sundays.
And speaking about the depth on the roster, I think the scouting department the coaching staff has done a great job of when they need depth and when they need somebody, a player that's going to be reliable. We've seen time and time again where the scouting department goes out and brings a player back to the Bills who understands the system, who understands the defense. Dane Jackson back on this roster, Tredevious White back on this roster. It'll be an interesting battle for that CB two spot because you have a rookie who's ultra talented and who had production at Kentucky and has six career interceptions and three of those he's returned for touchdowns, is super quick and fast, but you also have guys who understand the system have had success in it. I mean Tredevious White had an All Pro season here in Buffalo before his injuries. Dame Jackson was a non starter who became a reliable starter for this team. So the fact that they are using new players to say, hey, you're gonna get an opportunity to battle it out, but you know, we're also going to cushion this position group with guys who know how to do it.
And that's what's so fascinating about a lot of these position battles that we're going to see at Saint John Fisher in the preseason and then, like I said, maybe even into the regular season. There is that blend of the Bills know what they're getting with Tredavius White. Is he the fastest, twitchiest, most sudden cornerback in the league at his age after his injuries? Probably not. Dame Jackson never was that guy. Does that ultimately went out the familiarity with the system, the time tested production with Bobby Babbage and Sean McDermott, or this infusion of young fresh legs, athleticism, twitchiness, explosion, even Daiquon Hardy, who we haven't mentioned he's probably in the slot. He ran four to three eight with a forty two and a half inch vertical coming out of Penn State last year. So there's another player, Jordan Hancock, huge athlete coming out of Ohio State. Dorian Strong wasn't a freaky athlete. He would probably fit more into the Dane Jackson mold, but so productive at Virginia Tech. So I'm going to kind of be looking at it, maybe through my scouting lens of the players that don't really tick the box athletically or with their size or their length, but are really cerebral, smart players that have produced in the system. And then let's see what Sean McDermott and company on the defensive side can do with a Maxwell Harston that ran four two eight and has a thirty nine inch vertical. It'll be really interesting to see if one side wins out in way more than others, or it's truly a blend of who ultimately the style of player that wins out and gets on the field.
And that's what OTA's mini camp and training camp are all about, is figuring out who who are our best options at each position? Is there a position battle that you are looking forward to seeing how it unfolds.
Probably cornerback two, and it's obvious or it's easy, I should say to pencil in Maxwell Harriston. And but then again, just three years ago, we were all writing in kyer Elam at cbe two at the time, and then there's this he's gonna probably be a safety from Villanova, Christian Benford, and then week one, Christian Benford is starting opposite Tradevius White. So for as much as teams and coaches like to say, hey, we don't care about draft position, usually they try to push the first round round to the field, and that's understandable they're making more money whatever, the Bills have shown like we really do not care if you are a better player if you're a sixth rounder. And what's ironic is they have Dorian Strong, another sixth rounder. I think he's a really good player. I think he is a perfect fit. He's kind of the opposite of kyer Elam in that off coverage zone, watching the cornerback or the quarterback. That's where Dorian Strong really thrives. And that was something that kyer Elam had to learn and never quite did in Buffalo. So with him with Trey White, and Dane Jackson along with Maxwell Harriston opposite the newly minted Christian Benford. That position battle is not only just important for this Bill's defense and this Bill's team overall, It's gonna be a really fun position battle to watch transpire during training camp in the preseason.
And this is the perfect segue to what NFL analysts and writers are saying about the Bills right now. So let's go into Around the NFL presented by Clyde Health, the official healthcare system of the Buffalo Bills, and people are talking about the Bills and that cornerback two spot. It's been a hot topic this week, so NFL dot com columnist Jeffrey Chidia released an article of rookies who need to be successful.
In year one.
I believe there were eleven different rookies that were chosen. The Bills were on the list at number three, so ranked pretty importantly here with cornerback Max Harriston. Here's what Tidia has to say about it. There is no personnel move the Bills made this offseason that has more potential to help the team reached the Super Bowl. Buffalo has given up an average of thirty three point two points per game in its last five playoff losses, with four defeats at the hands of the Chiefs. The Bills actually might have won last year's AFC Championship game in Kansas City if a concussion hadn't knocked cornerback Christian Benford out of the game in the first half. Buffalo will be better suited to overcome the Chiefs if Harriston can grow up in a hurry and establish himself as a starter alongside Benford and slot corner Tarren Johnson. Harrison will compete for the job, but the best case scenario is that he beats out Tredevius White and Dan Jackson once the season opens.
That's perfect. That is absolutely spot on from Jeffrey, and I totally agree with him that if Christian Benford doesn't go down on what like the third series of that game, it was like tough it was that that AFC title game would have gone in a different direction. The Bills probably played the Eagles in the Super Bowl. But yeah, that's absolutely spot on two because even had the Bills won that game, maybe we wouldn't be having this conversation. But in general, the Bills had a lack of ability to play man coverage when they needed to or when they were facing a big time athlete at wide receiver, or now teams have two and three really you know sub four or five wide receivers that are sudden, that run great routes. For as good and as confusing as Sean McDermott and Bobby Babbage's defense is, that's very zone heavy for quarterbacks, for other receivers offensive coordinators, you still sometimes have to just go man on man and win. So that was so apparent throughout the season for Buffalo that when the offense was scoring a lot of points, the games where the defense didn't play quite as well, there were some holes in coverage. So I totally agree with him, and again Maxwell Harrison, is that not just raising the floor but creating a new ceiling at the cornerback position. With his speed, the five interceptions two years ago when he was healthy at Kentucky, the twitchiness, the recovery speed, which is so vital because you're not going to always totally smother wide receivers. You have to be able to recover in time. It is absolutely the recipe for precisely what the Bills needed at corner.
That's something I noticed in OTAs on Tuesday when media was able to watch practice. Was Harriston's recovery speed. If he doesn't have the best first step off the line, he's able to recover so quickly and makes it look effortless. That's something that this roster has missed out on in terms of speed. Chris Brown and I talked about it a few weeks ago after Harrison was drafted.
I asked him, I think it was during the draft show. I said, have the Bills.
Ever had this with Sean McDermott and Brandon Bean And we look back and it was a quick no. This is the first time they've had a defensive player who can run like this on the roster. And you think about the wide receivers that the Bills match up against in the AFC. You have some speedsters out there where if you can have a guy run stride for stride or have really good recovery speed, maybe this flips some of these games. Maybe this gives Buffalo a better chance to succeed in certain moments throughout a game.
Yeah. I mean, when you think about it, the fact that the Bills have always been near the top of the league and turnovers created on defense all the advanced stats with EPA and DVOA throughout the duration of the Sean McDermott area, especially post Josh Allen so twenty eighteen and on, has been remarkable given the non athletes, and I'm using that as a relative term, the non athletes that they've had at the cornerback position in a league. And it's happened exactly when the league has gone haywire with not only receiver contracts, but it's not just having two good receivers. If you don't have three good receivers, the fan base and the local media is really upset about it. You mentioned in the AFC with Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddell. In your own division, there's so many names that the Bills are going to play on the even on the NFC side playing the Philadelphia Eagles this year with Devonte Smith and AJ Brown, you need to have those guys that maybe they're not going to hold those players to two catches for ten yards, but not allow them to go off for seven catches for one hundred and seventy and two touchdowns, and is ultimately the difference of why you lose that game. So I agree with Jeffrey that Maxwell Harriston's ceiling, the position he's playing, and just his individual skill set aligns with the biggest, truly the biggest need that the Bills had this offseason.
ESPN NFL analyst Mina Kimes also chimed into this conversation. Podcast episode was released this week and the topic was about X factors in the AFC, So Buffalo's X factor was Max Harriston as well how he can produce perform in his first season in Buffalo. Kimes said in Buffalo's Meaningful loss Meaningful Losses, they have gone after the CB two spot, so explaining that in when Buffalo has lost, the offense that they were playing against had been successful in attacking the cornerback two spot and really keying in on that on as in a matchup that they could win. Kimes also pointed out some stats about how the Bills struggled on past defense when they did not get pressure, ranking near the bottom of the league in multiple statistical categories. So something to watch in terms of not just the CB two spot, I mean, getting pressure on a quarterback is huge and affects every single position on defense. But Kimes wasn't the only person to chime in on Buffalo CB two spot. As we talked about Jeffrey Chedea as well. It's an important position for the Bills because, like you said, if they can have somebody who's a reliable, reliable piece opposite of Christian and Benford, who can line up with some of the quickest wide receivers in the AFC, that completely changes the way a defense acts. If you have somebody who you believe can match up with a Tybreek Hill, a Jalen Waddle, it changes the way you play on defense. You don't have to put multiple people on one wide receiver. It changes your scheme. It changes what you can do. You can key on on multiple offensive weapons instead of just one.
Yeah, I totally agree on everything that both of those analysts are saying about Harston, but I'm going to spin it a little bit forward and talk about the ripple effect that all these players have on one side of the ball. I think, for as much as Maxwell Harriston, he was my seventeenth overall player, the Bills got him at thirty. I thought it was great value. The exact need that they had the pass rush matters, and Mina kind of talked about it that they when they were not getting home the secondary struggle. I think those two units are very closely aligned. When the Bills have been really good defensively, not allowed a big not allowed a lot of big plays down the field, a lot of turnovers. The pass rush has been really good last season. In the AFC title game, the only pressure patch from home twenty eight percent of the time. That's pretty low. It seems like it's high. If you're below thirty percent in a game, you're pretty much in a clean pocket in general. The year before it was right around thirty percent in the Division A round against Mahomes. So I think in the Bill's biggest moments when it hasn't been Gregory Russo or if Ed Oliver is able to be double teamed, I think, and I said it all draft season. For as much as everyone wanted Kenneth Grant and a big body, I was like, the Bill is what they need is another pass rusher on the side, And that's exactly what they got with TJ. Sanders. He was sticking out like a sore thumb on my draft board when the Bill's traded up to get him two years back to back elite level production as a pass rusher in the SEC. So now if TJ. Sanders and he doesn't have to win, you know, defensive Rookie of the Year. But if TJ. Sanders at his size, with his first step quickness, pass rushing moves, speed to power conversion, that I think is really good. That he can push the pocket backward next to Ed Oliver, Suddenly the corners can make more plays on the football. And maybe that's the difference. Instead of getting after Patrick Mahomes twenty eight point six percent of the time, if you're getting after him thirty four percent or thirty six percent, that's three or four or five more hurried throws that are either incomplete or maybe intercepted. And that's the difference in the game. So I think the TJ. Sanders pick, the bill second selection in this draft was maybe more underrated, but almost just as important because of how it ties to their first pick.
In Maxwell Harriston, you saw Sanders' speed to power at OTA's practice on Tuesday. You saw him really use that speed, use that effort to get to the quarterback. He batted down a pass and it looked like he turned into a basketball player as he batted that pass down. It was a ferocious block that Sanders had.
My mouth dropped open.
I was like, Oh my gosh, if this is what we can get out of rookie defensive tackle alongside of a starter in Ed Oliver, I can't wait to see what that looks like in terms of the quarterback needing to get the ball out or his inability to even step up in the pocket to complete a pass.
Yeah, And I think back to start at twenty twenty three, Daikwon Jones. The Bills get off to a huge or really hot start, a huge start, and Daikwon Jones next to at Oliver are playing like the best defensive tackle tandem in the NFL. Daikwon Jones gets hurt and outside of that, in the last three or four years, the Bills have not had a consistent pass rusher next to at Oliver. At Oliver has you know, taken time to develop, but he's gotten the new contract. He's a quality pass rusher. The athleticism is there. He's become a quality player. Is he an All Pro type? Is he No, He's not to that level, but he's so and the Bills can rely upon and when it's game plan time, whether it's battling for a seed in the AFC or it's in the playoffs. Offensive coordinators can say, all right, you guys are going to slide this way on at Oliver on the inside. We either have Quinton Jefferson or Jordan Phillips, who was injured a lot. They didn't really have to worry about that other player, TJ. Sanders, with his athleticism, his pass rush moves and his first step quickness, that can't be the case anymore. So that's why I think it's so important for this Bill's team. That's been as much of a clear cut weakness as cornerback two in the playoffs, the lack of another true pass rusher next at Oliver during a time in the NFL, and not only receivers have made a lot of money and have become even more valuable, but those interior pass rushers that you should just be run pluggers, couldn't really do much. A lot of teams have three and four really good ones. I think the Bills have two solid to maybe potentially Pro Bowl or all Pro types in at Oliver and TJ. Sanders.
Yeah, and like you said, those two things work hand in hand. And having a pass rush, having corners who who are capable of doing what they need to do on the outside and lining up against wide receivers. Moving on to a team that Buffalo new knows really well, it's the Miami Dolphins and Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey took to x last night to share some feelings as he awaits a trade. Ramsey said, for the record, by the way, I've loved every city I've played in and the fans who supported the anger is very misplaced at times, but sometimes valid too laughing face emoji, but the real ones know the intention always solid.
A new chapter awaits.
So Miami head coach Mike McDaniel was asked about the Ramsey situation yesterday and his reply was zero has changed. McDaniel said he's interested in the players he's coaching on the field today. So here's a reminder of the timing of all of this and when it might go down, because this, I think plays an important.
Role in all of this.
The cornerback is due twenty five million dollars in twenty twenty five, and if he is traded before June first, the Dolphins must pay up with a big cap hit. If he's traded after that, June one, date, the number drops to seven million dollars.
So this is happening Monday, Yeah right, I mean it seems like it.
Ramsey is not at OTA's The Dolphins are moving on with the cornerbacks that are currently on their roster. I know Ramsey is on the roster, but doesn't seem to be a part of the team this upcoming season. Other Dolphins news, wide receiver Tyreek Hill also spoke to media yesterday and had this to say about his actions at the end of the season and this offseason. Hill said he doesn't feel he deserves to be a team captain again after actions in a rough end to last season and this offseason. His main focus is proving to his teammates they can trust him and wants.
To prove it overall.
According to NFL Network reporter Cam Wolf, so that's your news out of Miami.
Not the best news.
No it's not. And I'm looking at the Dolphins roster and for as much as I applauded what they did, they finally made a shift in philosophy in the draft. They draft Kenneth Grant, They draft Jordan Phillips, no relation to former Bills defensive tackle Jordan Phillips in the fifth round, another defensive tackle. They drafted a guard in the second round. They finally went power over for ness. But if they trade Jalen Ramsey, I'm going to read you the Dolphins cornerback room. Cater Kohu, who's actually a pretty good nickel storm, Duck cam Smith, the second rounder in twenty twenty three, who I actually liked a lot but hasn't really panned out yet, Already Burns, who's a journeyman, former first rounder, Patrick McMorris, John Saunders, Ethan Bonner, b J Adams. Do you know any of these names? I don't know any of these names. So if we just spent fifteen minutes talking about Bill's cornerback two, it's so vital, Which maybe it's like the Bills are on a different echelon in terms of like legitimately close to the super Bowl. The Dolphins weren't there last season. But for as much as I think the Dolphins will be more physical and will be better in the trenches, it seems like a trade of Jalen Ramsey is imminent. If they do that trade, who I think is still a borderline elite level corner that cornerback room might be the worst in the NFL. Really, I mean, look at I mean, do you disagree? No, I mean I guess I'm not comparing it to thirty one other rosters right now. I mean I guess thirty others because I would say the Bills is distinctly better. But that could be a huge question mark that maybe leads to the Dolphins playing in a lot of shootouts, because for as much as they've improved up front, the defensive backfield will not be nearly as dominant as they could be when they had Xavian Howard and Byron Jones and certainly Jalen Ramsey.
They still have questions up front too.
I mean, Chubb and Jalen Phillips come back from.
Jaalen Phillips coming back from injury. You can't expect those two players to be stars as soon as they walk back onto the field after Hilly's injury that Jalen Phillips suffered. So that'll be an interesting storyline for the Dolphins at the start of the season, as well as their offensive line, which has always been kind of a question mark, rotating revolving door of people who have been in and out with injuries. So that's the new was out of Miami. The twenty twenty five National Football Power Index ratings are out, and the Bills are one of the best, according to analytics writer Seth Walder. So, the FBI is a football ratings and projection model in the preseason. These predictive ratings are primarily based on win totals from the betting market in conjunction with each team's schedules, along with factors such as the difference between a team's starting and backup quarterback. These ratings are used to simulate the season thousands of times, with results forming projections. So that's a lot of words and verbiage there, but basically it spits out, Okay, these are your best teams on these things. So these ratings will evolve as they learn more about each team based on its performances on offense, defense, as special teams as we go about the season. So here are the top five preseason. The Eagles come in at one, the Chiefs are two, the Ravens are three, the Lions are four, and the Bills are five and plus four point five. So the top five's most common theme is their offensive strength. I think we can look at all these five teams and agree these are offensive powerhouses. The article says offense is more stable from season to season, so teams with the best past quarterback and offensive production are more likely to repeat that success the following year. The ratings also say the Bills have a ten percent chance to win the Super Bowl, which ranks third among all other NFL teams. The Eagles and the Chiefs are ahead of them, and if you look at the AFC East, Buffalo is the only team with a positive FPI rating in their division and would be considered more than a four point favorite over each of the other three on a neutral field. The Bills have a sixty five percent chance to win their division, the highest of any team in the NFL by a hefty margin.
So there's a lot to take from this, which I know we got to get to break soon. But that last point is really interesting because we've heard so much about the Patriots that that they've gotten better year or two of Drake May. I think while that's true, and I do think the Patriots will be a tougher team if Drake May stays healthy this year. They have Mike Vrabel at head coach, who's proven himself to be a playoff caliber head coach. It makes you think of don't just look at the AFC East, the AFC West is way better. All the other divisions have also, Like there's not maybe outside of the NFC South, which ironically the Bills play this year, a lot of the divisions are really hotly contested AFC North, so NFC East obviously has gotten significantly better in a hurry. So for as much as if you're one of those Bills fans that's like, oh jeez, Patriots, I'm kind of nervous about them, I'm nervous about the Dolphins scoring a lot of points. The Bills still, according to this model ESPN's analytics model, the best chance of any team to win their division, which a lot of what was in there makes sense that if you have a really good quarterback, then that goes a long way. And the Bills are returning so many players, and we talked about a lot in this segment have added important pieces to that roster.
Yeah, the offense looks so similar to last season because they had so much success. The defense a lot of new faces, but that's because they had things to work on coming off of a twenty twenty four season that.
They still saw a lot of success.
Our topic for you today, who is your Bills under the Radar candidate to make a major impact this season? We want to know your thoughts, so please chime in by tweeting at us or give us a call at eighth three five point fifty. We are answering your phone calls next here on One Bill's Live. We're presented by Kalida Health on Buffalo Bills Radio.
Welcome back to one Bill's Live.
Our topic today who is your bills under the Radar candidate to make a major impact this season? We want to know what your answers are, so please give us a call at eight O three oh five fifty or tweet at us. We're gonna go to the phone lines to Butch on the East shot east side.
Who's joining the conversation right now?
What's up Butch?
Hello, my people, the Queen of w GR, the Queen of MSG and and one of the top guys that come off the bench man to make us win, Chris Drapp. It's the honor, it's a pleasure to talk to you. I love MSG, I love WG.
I to the fans who listen and watch What's from the East side.
Love dearly. I'm gonna get right to it. I got a couple of things. I'mnna be very quick. I thank you checking my call. Now, we always use that term iron shoppers iron but also we always look at the players with that. We always say, well, you know, bring more talent in have competition in iron shop design. I'm gonna flip the script. I'm looking at coaches iron shop design. I expect Bobby Babbage. I expect office coordinator. Either get with people friends of yours, that it's some other teams or retired coaches or anybody else, get in the film room and add to what your expertise has already is sharpen your game up. Brandon, being in this front office and this drafts that have brought enough personnel, we have some of the best person that we have a friend and deals. I'm holding the coaches that come, defensive coordinators, office coordinators to actually put this soup and this game plan. This meal's this three course meal that we got to win to get a championship. Here, I'm holding I'm accountable for that, and I'm gonna put that to the side, and I'm gonna answer your question on your topic. The person that people are sleeping on. And I hear people like you know, Maddie, they'll disrespect you doing Brownie was speaking about it the other day.
Y'all talk about Matt maclonald coming back, him and him and not my guy. But now he ain't forty three no more. But anyway, playing linebacker combination together. I really believe the star he's able to have a star of a team.
I really do. Dorian Williams is about to take off. I really believe Dorian Williams is about to be one of the key players on the defense. I really believe Solomon is going to be one of the key players, young kid on the defense on the defensive line, along with all the other players we have. But I just want the coaches, the coaches you have the off season now to actually shop in your game plans up so when these players do get the training camp, don't come in with the vanilla offense. Don't come with the vanilla defense. You have enough time, and you have enough talent, and you have enough information that you should be able to be put together top game plans offensively and deepestly. Even though Brownie and Maddie, you know what I'm saying, and Brownie was speaking about even when he saw the speed, well, this is the first time we have a special teams coordinator has experienced and and then Brownie was expecting big things from the special teams. I'm expecting the same thing from the coaches on the offensive side of the ball. I love you, Queen, Chris s Trapp, I love you, guys man, thanks for taking Michael, Thanks for the call.
But great game caller by Yeah Yeah. Needs to be in the One Bills Live Hall of Fame of callers for sure.
Great point about the coaches.
You know, one thing that Buffalo has going for them is the fact that Joe Brady and Bobby Babbage are too young coordinator the.
First full years coordinators last year.
When you're a young coordinator, you are young and hungry. You are so hungry to get after it, to get to the Super Bowl, to colle left as many wins as possible. To improve from season to season. Brady and Babbitts were in the building all the time. Let me tell you they're in the building all the time in the off season.
Two.
I see them walking the hallways at hours that would be.
In season hours. I would say, But they're still around.
They're doing their homework, studying everything they can about the team from last year and trying to figure out, how can we make this better in twenty twenty five.
Yeah, we were talking about off air from their previous segment that the Lions are a team that really good on paper but lost their offensive and defensive coordinators. I think what Butch brings up in what sparked in my mind is, and I just said it to you, the Bills had two first year coordinators, young guys in their mid thirties that I think we almost watching the Bills took it for granted because the offense was so good. The defense like led the league in turnovers. Although there were some rough patches at times defensively, the Bill's defense was still one of the best in the league. These guys are now entering year two only, so not only are they not having to replace new system all of that young like you mentioned, hungry coordinators entering year two, and that now they have a full season to say, Hey, maybe this play didn't work this concept, Maybe we should have blitzed heer, maybe we should have backed off here. I'm looking forward to seeing the step that those coaches make in just what is their only their second full season as coordinators, which I think is the point that Butch was trying to bring up. And I mean, it was music to my ears with Dorian Williams. You know, I think two years ago when I was on this show, I was like, my favorite pick in the draft two years ago was Dorian Williams. I absolutely loved him out of Tulane. My draft algorithm resin that I have. He was near the top of the linebacker position in that class. It was either him or Jack Campbell. Jack Campbell went in the first round to the Lions. Ironically, Bill's got Dorian Williams in the third round. And I think maybe it's because he's got long hair. I always go back to the heat places with his hair on fire. You can see it out of his helmet flying up in the air when he's running after the football. But he's chiseled. He I think is getting a better grasp of the playbook and maybe that was something that slowed him down and why he didn't ultimately play so much as a rookie. But last year, learning the system the exact same scheme helped him a lot. He has sub four or five speed, He's a pretty reliable tackler, and he's good in coverage, so I wouldn't be shocked even though it is kind of a logjam at the linebacker spot. If again, kind of tying these two themes together inside the same system. If like Butch said, Dorian Williams is ultimately someone that truly breaks out.
In year three, I agree.
Williams led the team last year in total tackles with one fourteen. He told me a light came on for him last year in terms of being in Buffalo's defensive system. The game slowed down for him, which allowed Williams to play a lot quicker, a lot faster, a lot more powerful. And with that, when you get a player who has a pretty good second season, I think you're going to find a way to get him on the field in different types of packages, even if he's not going to be the main starter and take over Matt Mulano's spot. I think you're gonna find ways where Dorin Williams finds himself as a third linebacker on the field in situations. And as I'm speaking about this, we could see more run heavy teams again in twenty twenty five. And what are you going to do when you face a run heavy team, You're going to stack the box more so you may need a third linebacker more than you anticipate.
Yeah, for as much as the NFL today is a passing league and we've lost I mean, it's been a decade now that a nickel cornerback has been a starting position. In speaking about all this depth that we mentioned in the first segment, you want to just be as versatile as possible, to be matchup proof where you can face a team that wants to run the bollaton and has a Derrick Henry and load up with three linebackers, or you want to be able to have to play five and six defensive backs, seven defensive backs if you need to to have Dorian Williams on the roster, and to kind of put a bow on your point. Early in his career that rookie season, why he wasn't on the field by it was Terrell Bernard playing a lot more. Sean McDermott mentioned, it's just because he didn't really know the playbook yacht. He was in a very elementary system at Tulane. If he's now having lights come on for him in terms of reading his Keys, getting to the football a step quicker with sub four or five speed already. That's why I think he's aligned to have a huge breakout year, because it really was only grasping the mental side of the game and getting a firm grasp of the system. I think he has that.
Now, let's go back to the phones. Tom on the west side joining us.
Now, Hey, Tom, Hey kiddos, how are you doing today?
Great?
Good?
How are you good? I want to first say hi to Butch and Judy and Kevin and the multiple marks out there, especially New Jersey. Give him a shout out. Bill's box. Okay, I want to say hoy. Even though he's going to miss the first six games of the season, that's right before our bye, and we only got one big game really in there, maybe two if you count Atlanta. I think they're on the front end of our schedule. But you got Baltimore, so he comes back, and then we got Kansas City, Cincinnati, Philadelphia. We're going to have him for those games, and they're going to move him around, and they're not going to know how to game plan for him because they're not going to see him in the beginning of the season. Now, my question is when can he come back, Because he gets the bye week, that's the extra week right there. Can he come back a week or two before and start practicing with the team again.
Great question, Tom.
If it's six games, he's not going to be able to join back on any team activities until that bye week. So that bye week, it's not like the guys are out of the building on Monday or Tuesday. You usually have players that stick around through the entire week, which may stick around the entire week just to get ready for Week eight and get ramped up. But they do have activities team activities the first couple days of that week. But it totally depends on what Sean McDermott wants to do. He may say, hey, you guys have kicked butt to start this season. You get the entire week off, so we'll see what happens there. But hoit is a good option. Like Tom said, people are not going to have tape of him for the first six weeks of the season.
Now.
I know he's not a rookie, but I also view him as a player who is going to line up all over the place and be looked at as a chess piece on this defense and to me kind of chess piece does mean under the radar type player who could have a big impact.
Yeah, that's what I was going to say. That it's not only not having film on him, because he's not playing in those first six games. You've never seen him in the Bill system. And he is already or naturally because he's so versatile, someone that is hard to gain plan for, because he lines up over the center, he plays edge rusher, he plays off ball linebacker, he lines up at three technique. He's a blitzer from all different alignments defensively, So already when they're ramping up for that Chiefs game or a lot of the more difficult games on the Bill schedule later, it's going to be really hard to understand or to guess where Michael Hoyt is going to be deployed by Bobby Babbage. So I'm in the train of thought that I don't really care about those first six games, not saying that they don't matter. And you start with the Ravens on Sunday Night. You want to win that game, but the Bills, for as much as you still have to win the division get to the playoffs, the Bills are playing for December January and February, and if those six games again allow the Bills to have more freedom with what they do with Michael Hoyt where they can catch teams off guard. I think that is way more valuable than him being on the field and risking injured in September.
Yeah, we got to take a break, but when we return, more of your phone calls coming up next. Here on one Bills Live, We're presented by Clyde Health on Buffalo Bills Radio.
Welcome back to one Bills Live.
Mattie Glab alongside of CBS Sports NFL Draft analyst Chris Trepasso filling in for Steve and Chris today. Our topic for you, who is your Bills under the radar candidate to make a major impact this season?
Tweet at us.
Or give us a call at eight oh three oh five point fifty. Going back to the phone lines too, Judy and Buffalo joining us.
Now, Hey, Judy, hither you know I think your assessment of the Buffalo's offers at the start of the program with spot on, this is a team that should be able to control the game forty out of the sixteen and offense, so it comes down to the last the other twenty minutes, and I have to think that the Bills have improved and the success of our season will really depend on whether that defense can hold all of their opponents twenty points or less. I think the proof will be in the putting when we play the Ravens and the Bengals. If we can keep them under control at which we have not been able to do, I would say that maybe we have truly improved our defense where we can be considered a Super Bowl contender.
Judy, thanks for the call. I think you're completely right.
The offense was an offense who produced more than thirty points a game last season. They were near the top of the league in their average, and defense was the position group that saw the biggest overhaul in free agency and in the draft. As you said, five out of the first six players drafted we're defensive players. And the players that you have on this roster now on defense that are new players.
We spoke it up about it at the top of the show.
These are all improvements to this roster, and yes, we will see what it looks like once Week one happens. There's no guarantees, but they've set themselves up about as good as they can to be ready to have a better defense. Who can contend against some of these offensive powerhouses that ranked super high in the FPI ratings that we talked about earlier in the show, the Ravens, the Chiefs, and the Eagles and the Lions.
Yeah, for sure. First off, this is a treat for me. I come on, it's my first timeline. Like in a month or so, get a call from Butch and Judy. It's absolutely a treat. Talking about the five out of six draft picks, the first six draft picks being on defense. That's after signing Joey Bosa, Michael Hoyt, Larry Ogunjobi my underrated guy, Derek Forrest, Trey White, Dane Jackson. So like, this was not just hey, we hope that some first year guys can be really good and we're expecting a lot out of rookies. I don't think it's usually smart to put so much on just one rookies plate, much less five or six of them. To also mix them in with some veterans on the defensive side. That really shows that it was a point of emphasis to improve that side of the ball, which again ultimately failed the Bills, mostly due to depth in the AFC Title Game, but did lead the NFL in turnovers last season. So I agree with Judy that the offense as intact as it is with the new pieces with Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore and then everything else that has been the same from last year, obviously Josh Allen chief among those pieces, it really will come down to the defense. I think I can't say that the offense won't turn the ball over as infrequently as it did last year. Do I think the Bills are going to be near the top of the league in turnovers that they allowed to the other team? No, I don't think Josh Allen is going to do that. I don't think that's going to be a part of the run game either. So it really will be an ultimately hinge on how soundly the defense can play. And if you're not wanting to fast forward too soon or get ahead of yourself for the playoffs, those games against the Ravens and the Chiefs and the Bengals and the Eagles, those will be the difference between a one seed that the Bills have not gotten a two seed going on the road for the AFC Title Game, whatever the case may be. So I think, yes, what Judy said in those games, and we will find out right away with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson how good this Bill's defense could be. That's not to say that Week one will ultimately lead the way or show us how good or bad the Bills defense will be right away, because they can obviously grow with a lot of these young players. But yeah, it's way more on the defense, I think, than on the offensive side.
Those big games are also pretty spread out throughout the season, so you get these kind of you know, benchmin Yeah, benchmarks throughout the season to check in how are we playing compared to this team that we're facing.
And I think it'll be.
A good taste and a good test throughout the season at different points, Okay, how are we lining up here, how are we lining up there? And then ultimately you get the Eagles in Week seventeen, which, if both teams are playing for something, could be another really good benchmark game.
And all those games are at home. Yeah, it is kind of weirdly felt like, oh man, a lot of the Bill's tough games are on the road in the regular season. Those marquee games against those heavyweights are all in Orchard Park, which obviously matters a lot final season in this stadium, back here High Mark Stadium. I think that Week seventeen game feels like it could get flexed to Sunday night if those two teams are whether they're battling for the two seed or the one seed in their respective conferences. It is truly a good spread of those litmus tests. But getting those games at home where the defense can really feed off the crowd, I think is just a little bit of an edge that they might need to ultimately win those games.
Go back to the phone to Tom and East Rochester who joins us?
Now?
Tom, how you doing good?
How are you guys doing great?
Doing good?
My big splash is actually a player who has already proven himself. What's coming off injury is Matt mullanal He came off that dreadful injury in London. That game still in my head. I was at both playoff games last year and I was down low watching him. He made the right cuts, he made the right decisions. He was just a hair too slow and got burnt on the speed outside plays and making that huge splash play. I know Matt Mullano, He's going to keep trying keep figuring out. But I do believe he will get his legs back this year and he will start making those splash plays and it's going to be a big difference with this defense. Love you guys, love the bill. Let's do it.
Thanks Tom, appreciate it.
Yeah, Matt Milano is somebody who I think a lot of people would have on this list in terms of how he can come back from that torn bicep injury. We know he came back at the end of last season, but really you're just trying to get your legs back under you. You're trying to get used to playing football, getting used to.
The hits, and we saw we saw flashes of Milano.
One play that I recall that we referenced quite a bit is that sack that he had on Bo Nicks in the playoffs where we chased him down near the sideline, and it showed his speed and his range and his power. Now he has an entire offseason where he's healthy, I believe Milano too can come back to be an impact player again.
Yeah, that's key. This will be the first time in three years that Milano isn't spending his off season nursing an injury. That's a totally different thing. When you're in the rehab room and you're trying to just get healthy, you're not working on your conditioning, you can't do a lot of those. So now, obviously Milano got hurt really close to the season last year, and for his sake, let's hope it doesn't happen again. But if he's able to just stay healthy and play into the regular season without another injury hiccup a major one like he suffered the last two years, he absolutely would be a great pick for under the radar guy that we know, when he is healthy, will make a major impact on this defense.
Coming up next on the show, we're looking at players in their second year who could have a big impact on this roster, and also looking at some of the new wide receivers and the impact they could have as well. Christoph Passo has a model that he ran some of this stuff through, so it's going to be fun to talk about next year. On One Bill's Live, we're presented by Clydehealth on Buffalo Bills Radio.
One Bill's Live presented by Calledlida Health.
Welcome into our number two of One Bill's Live on this Thursday afternoon I'm Mattie Glab. I'm joined by CBS Sports NFL Draft analyst Chris Trapasso.
Fill in for Chris and Steve today. Now in our.
Number two, we're gonna start this hour by discussing a couple of new faces on this roster on offense as well as a couple of players in their second year. We're going to project what they could do in year two and project to what these new guys could do in their first year with Buffalo.
So we're gonna.
Start with Bill's running back Ray Davis. In his rookie season, Ray Davis was a player that you could depend on. He was a powerful running back who fought for those extra yards. And if you look at the stats, one hundred and thirteen carries, four hundred and forty two rushing yards, three touchdowns on the ground, three in the air, so that's six total for the rookie, and if you're looking at the playoffs, he also scored a touchdown in the postseason. So quite a productive season for the rookie who was drafted in the fourth round saw good production. I would expect that for his second season as well. So Chris, tell us how you projected the year two numbers for Ray Davis.
All Right, I'm gonna try not to bog you down with numbers, but I'm gonna explain how I came up with these averages. So what I did is I went back twenty years to get a big enough sample size, but not to go back thirty forty fifty years. So I used the last twenty years, so from three or from four to twenty twenty three. I didn't use last year because those players obviously haven't played yet. And I looked at running backs that were very similar in their rookie seasons to Ray Davis, So like between one hundred carries and one hundred and twenty five carries you mentioned he had one hundred and thirteen in the regular season. And then in terms of how successful they were very similar. Yards per attempt to average his was three point nine and success rate, which I think is a very important stat for running backs. It's you achieved sixty percent of the yardage on first down, forty percent on second down, or get the first down on third and fourth down. His was forty five percent last year. Running backs that had almost identical seasons in that twenty year stretch to Ray Davis. How did they do in year two. That's where I think you can make somewhat of a legitimate projection. You can maybe call it a ceiling if you think this is overly optimistic, but just to give some framework for his year two. So there were eighteen total running backs that had very similar seasons to Ray Davis in year one. Now I'm also blending into this projection, maybe James Cook. I don't think the holdout's gonna last well well into the season. But let's just assume let's base his projection on Ray Davis getting more than one hundred carries. Again, he got one hundred carries last year. There were eighteen of those running backs, And I'm using that one hundred carry threshold because nine of those running backs in this twenty year sample did not ultimately reach one hundred carries in year two. Five of them got injured, four of them just fell by the wayside, coaching change, didn't play well, so half the time they didn't ultimately reach that one hundred carry plateau. Well, let's say Ray Davis does that. There were nine running backs then who ultimately did go over one hundred carries in year two after having a very similar season to ray Davis in their rookie seasons, and of those nine running backs, the averages are one hundred and seventy three carries up from one thirteen for ray Davis, seven hundred and fifty two yards and four point three five yards per carry with five touchdowns on the ground. So if ray Davis goes up about sixty carries and goes up more than three hundred yards on the ground and adds two more rushing touchdowns to this backfield and is clearly across the board more productive. I think whether you know, you can factor in whatever you want about how James cooks, if he's going to be able to maintain that production, if he regresses, if he doesn't play whatever. Adding seven hundred and fifty yards compared to four hundred and forty two I think would be a boon for this bill's offense. So, using not just my thoughts, your thoughts actual numbers to project ray Davis one hundred and seventy three carries for seven hundred and fifty two yards almost four point four yards per carry with five rushing touchdowns would be a great return on investment, like you mentioned, for a year two fourth round running back.
Yeah, I would not be upset with that type of production out of his secondary running back who's drafted in the fourth round, and thinking about the way Buffalo's offense is going to operate in twenty twenty five. Job Brady returns as offensive coordinator, your quarterback returns, your five starting offensive lineman return this everybody eats Mantra will be back for a second season. But within that, you still want to diversify what you're doing. You don't want to look the same as you did last year because the tape exists on how this team played last year, So you want to add a few more wrinkles. Ray Davis had a good first season. I believe Ray Davis could be featured more in his second season. You got James Cook, who's coming off of a year where he had over one thousand rushing yards sixteen rushing touchdowns. Teams are going to expect James Cook to run the rock quite a bit. Davis gives you not a different wrinkle because that wrinkle existed last year, but it diversifies what Buffalo. Buffalo can do a little bit more if you depend on him as well as Ty Johnson in the backfield too, And.
He's a different style back. I mean that three point nine yards per carry average as a rookie seems not very good. But I mentioned the forty five percent success right, if you're over fifty, you're one of the best backs in the league. So if you're at forty five percent, if you're getting three yards on third and two, that is a successful run in any offense. So Ray Davis proved and I'm not saying that James Cook can never pick up a first down in short yardage. He proved that as a smaller back, he's actually pretty good at doing that. That touchdown on fourth downd in the ANFC title game just stands out in my head. But what you're saying that that Ray Davis is a different wrinkle I think is absolutely spot on. Because he is stockier, he's more powerful, he's more side to side wiggle, where James Cook is more of a slasher and a speed guy. So if the Bills get that jump from him, that I've kind of created that framework of one hundred and seventy three rushes, seven hundred and fifty two yards and five touchdowns that would then allow James Cook to maybe be and stay more fresh for the playoffs or that the Bills won't have to rely on him as much or even if they try to, and there is a little bit of a regression from such a great breakout year for James Cook. The run game won't completely go into the gut or they will have that reinforcement in Ray Davis, which again I think was smart for the Bills to spend that fourth round pick on him in last year's draft.
The Bills have two new wide receivers on their roster who will see a good amount of action on the field in twenty twenty five. It's Elijah Moore and Joshua Palmer. Now, Elijah Moore comes to us from the Cleveland Browns. Joshua Palmer comes to us from the LA Chargers. Now, Palmer has played with a talented quarterback in Justin Herbert, but speaking with Elijah Moore when he was brought on to this roster, one of the reasons why he said he was so excited to be a Buffalo Bill was because of the fact that more gets to play with josh Allen saying that I have played in this league for already four seasons, but I don't feel like I've played with a true ultra talented quarterback. Josh Allen gives me that option, and because of that, I believe my best football is ahead of me.
So when you look.
At Moore and Palmer, what they've done before and what they could do in Buffalo, how did you come up with those numbers?
So first, I'll just put a bow on the Ray Davis conversation last year about the same time, I projected that James Cook was going to have a breakout year based on the amount of carries, the age that he was entering, where a lot of running backs that had similar starts to their career had big year threes like James Cook had. I was ultimately wrong on Curtis Samuel, but I think the injured ultimately was a huge factor. You can't get those. So I'm gonna run James or Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore, excuse me, through the same model or average that I did last year, and what I'm calling it is the Cole Beasley, John Brown and Stefan Diggs multipliers, what those wide receivers did in Dallas, in Baltimore and in Minnesota pre Josh Allen, and then the multipliers or the bump, the Josh Allen bump. We can call it that they got when they were in Buffalo. So you mentioned it that Josh Palmer has played with a borderline elite level quarterback, a big time talent in Justin Herbert. His best season. This is Josh Palmer one hundred and seven targets, seventy two catches, seven hundred and sixty nine yards in three touchdowns. If we use those John Brown, Cole Beasley, and Stefan Diggs multipliers, that's one hundred and nineteen targets, eighty three catches, nine hundred and seven teen yards, and two and a half right around three touchdowns. Again, so that would again to have to inject a thousand yard ish receiver. That would probably be the ceiling for Palmer. I think, especially in this everybody eats offense. That would be a big bump for him statistically and would help this Bill's pass game a lot.
Eighty three catches is a lot for and everybody eats the style of offense as well well.
He and what I will say there is a little caveat here. I did not include maccollins in this projection because maccollins previously high numbers across the board came in twenty twenty two with the Raiders, he played like ninety five percent of the snaps that year, and he didn't play anywhere close to I think it was like in the sixties, like low sixties. Last year for the Bills, Curtis Samuel obviously got injured, so I wasn't going to throw him in. I mean, this is all presuming that these guys stay healthy, of course, but yes, eighty three catches would be a lot, And I'll say if I'm gonna mention that with Mac Collins, I got a mention it with Josh Palmer. Those seventy two catches for seven hundred and sixty nine yards came a few years ago in LA when Mike Williams went down, when Keenan Allen like also got hurt. So do I expect the same volume. Maybe not, But he proved that he can be in a season where he can catch seventy two passes for seven hundred and sixty nine yards with three scores. So his ceiling, I'm going to say the highest that Josh Palmer production wise, especially with Shakir and Kincaid and the run game and all that. Eighty three catches, nine hundred and seventeen yards and two and a half touchdowns.
One reason why he can reach that is because Palmer is known as being a man beater, and there was a stat that came out right after the Bills acquired Joshua Palmer in his ability to beat man coverage, which Josh Allen has talked about. Brandon Bean has talked about that they now have a receiver who is really good at doing this game after game, and.
Palmer ranks in the top ten.
Yeah, Fantasy Points Data, which is one of my new favorite analytics sites. It's obviously mostly for fantasy purposes, but they tweeted this right after Josh Palmer signed that Josh Palmer gives the Bills a much needed weapon versus man coverage. Buffalo's average separation score ranks among man among one hundred and thirty one qualifying players last season, Josh Palmer was eighth best the rest of the Bills a wide receiver group. Kean Coleman fifty fourth, Mcollins seventy first, Khalil Shakir eighty second, and Kincaid eighty six. Now, if you're wondering what is average separation score, I subscribe to that site, Fantasy Points data last year, they are doing like Pro Football focus level watching every single route that a receiver runs and determining was he open or was he not? So for Josh Palmer against man coverage, their iding manner zone, they have a bunch of people working there to be in the top ten, like you're mentioning against man and that early in the season was kind of a bug for this Bill's offense that they weren't able to do that. That's why, like you're saying, maybe Josh Palmer can become more of a one to a option on this team because at twenty five years old, he's proven in this league. Not only is he a deep threat, but he can get open against man.
And what about Elijah Moore?
Where do we see Elijah Moore fitting into Buffalo's offense with these projected numbers.
So Elijah Moore's career high and he's kind of the opposite of Josh Palmer in terms of the quarterbacks that he's had thrown him the football in New York with the Jets and Zach Wilson and then most recently in Cleveland with Deshaun Watson and like fifteen other quarterbacks that didn't play more than two or three games his best season, and get ready for this catch rate is super low. One hundred and four targets, fifty nine catches. That said, a lot of those were uncatchable targets for I think still they're very respectable six hundred and forty yards and two touchdowns using the Cole Beasley, John Brown, and Stefan Diggs multipliers. That's again assuming that he plays a reasonable amount of snaps he doesn't get injured like Curtis Samuel did last season with those multipliers, one hundred and sixteen targets, sixty eight catches, seven hundred and sixty three yards and two scores. So not quite as high as Josh Palmer, but maybe you can factor in the quarterback difference to start that baseline being a lot just not as good. But Elijah Moore is someone that can also get open underneath at all three levels of the field. I loved him. I wanted the Bills to draft him in twenty twenty one in the first round. He got picked early in round two by the Jets, and again add seven hundred and sixty three yards to this offense. That again probably represents the ceiling for Elijah Moore and that would be a huge boost to the pass game. Not that they are replacing a ton of targets from last year, but they don't have Amari Cooper. They're not going to have MATC Collins. He's in New England. If you add sixty eight catches, seven hundred and sixty three yards, who scores with Elijah Moore and he's someone that you signed after the draft. That is hats off to the front office for.
Signing seven hundred and sixty three yards. Certainly helps you move down the field, move the sticks. If you look at the way Moore plays the game, he's a speedster, shifty wide receiver. What role do you see him taking on in Buffalo's office?
Well, part of I mean, going back to the draft, part of the reason why I liked Elijah Moore so much is that at his size, he's a little smaller. He's not like one hundred and eighty pounds, but he's not Deebo Samuel. He's a little smaller, kind of built like a bigger slot receiver so to speak. So you think he's shifty, he's gonna get open. He's underneath he's running those jerk routes. He's running Slans, he's shallow crosses. He ran in the four threes at the combine, so he demonstrated at Ole Miss and at times where a lot of the passes were flying over his head in New York and Cleveland that, like you mentioned, he is a vertical threat too. So there aren't a ton. I mean, I'm not going to say that there's only like a handful of players, but there are not a ton of wide receivers in today's NFL that are legitimate three level winners. And Elijah Moore is he was in college and all of the numbers indicate that underneath intermediate level and at times deep with that four to three speed, that he can be a vertical threat to this offense as well.
Okay, we just put together a lot of yards in the wide receiver room, and if we talk about the discussion of Buffalo doesn't have enough wide receivers, these are two new additions to Buffalo's roster, and if they get somewhere in the wheelhouse of these projections, you're sitting at a pretty good place. And you have Kean Coleman, you have Curtis Samuel, you have Khalil Shakir, you have Laviska Chanault, who we haven't even talked about yet.
Add up those.
Numbers and it's looking like another really good season for Josh Allen.
In the air one hundred percent. And what we talked about is kind of tying back to the first segment that this is not to say that I'm absolutely guaranteeing eighty three catches in nine hundred and seventeen yards for Josh Palmer, but if they go, if he experiences the same bump that Beasley, Brown and Diggs saw, that's where he ultimately will be. Same with Elijah Moore sixty eight catches, seven hundred and sixty three yards. I'm not gonna say that that's exactly like what I'm expecting them to do, but it lessens the reliance on a key on Coleman, on a Dulton Kincaid, Oh Dawson Knox gets injured for a couple games, we don't have him, Oh we have Elijah Moore making plays, or Curtis Samuel gets dinged to again, or he's not a huge part of the offense. It allows the Bills to be even more diverse with this everybody eats mentality by bringing in two established but still young players who have not yet experienced the Josh Allen bump at wide receiver, and I think that is key, especially for a team that maybe more than other or than any other, has embraced this everybody eats mentality. Where like the Bill saw last season, Kinkaid and Coleman were hurt at the same time the offense didn't completely fall off, but there were some times of stagnants. Now, if you inject those players in and you can have a higher ceiling than Amari Cooper or Matt Collins from last season.
And I look at these numbers, I look at what we're talking about, and I think they don't need anything else at the wide receiver position, like we're set. If these players can perform in the window that you're saying they can perform in and with these projections, and if you can see a step forward from a Kean Coleman, from a Kalo Shakir, from a Dulton Kincaid, and throw the running backs in there as well, because our running backs can catch.
The football too, I think you're in a.
Really good spot to average over thirty points per game again and maybe even reach the record of scoring thirty rushing touchdowns and thirty passing touchdowns in the same season.
Now, a lot of that that I mentioned with Palmer and more, those numbers were accomplished when they were pretty vocal points of their offense. I mentioned the what seventy two catches for seven hundred and sixty nine yards for Josh Palmer, which is his current career high, came in a season when Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both got hurt. So they proved that they can do that. I don't know if Josh Palmer is going to be able to get the volume of one hundred and nineteen targets, which is which would be the projection or Elijah Moore one hundred and sixteen targets. But if the efficiency is there on a per route, on a per target basis that they proved that they can they can have with lesser quarterbacks, and that gets maybe ramped up a little bit or a lot with Josh Allen if those are you know, if those targets are even cut in half. But there are forty catches for five hundred something the yards, four or five touchdowns and you spread that out with two players and then already the incumbents that are coming back. Then you get to that level again. Thirty touchdowns on the ground, through the air, five hundred points, thirty one points a game. That's exactly where the Bills want to stay. And they've done it by not staying complacent and saying, hey, look, we got the same offensive line, we got the same backfield, we got the same quarterback. Let's just run it back. No, they've tried to improve those depth pieces, and what's important we talked so much about the depth in the backfield or in the defensive backfield. In that AFC title game, Amari Cooper made some big plays and Mac Collins had a touchdown, some big catches down the field. Even late in the season, you may need your Elijah Moore or your Leaviscus Channel, or your Ray Davis or your josh Palmer to make some plays. So if they go through this Josh Allen bump, the Bills offense could be even better than it was last year.
And that's why players like Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore want to play for the Buffalo Bills is because they believe they get a bump in their production when they're matching up with an MVP quarterback in Josh Allen. Now, I wonder what Keon Coleman's numbers would be. I know he, you know, suffered an injury last year, missed several games, and didn't see the production after he came back from that injury that he did starting this season. But it'd be interesting to project his numbers for year two.
Yeah, I didn't run him through. Maybe the next time I'm on, we can talk about that. But I would do the same thing that There's been a ton of receivers that have had mild success as a rookie, especially an early second round pick, that have had that bump in year two that the lights have come on, especially someone that was so young in Kean Coleman being only twenty one years old, And I would say, I'll throw on the extra layer. We are in very distinctly in the nil transfer portal era and the you know, we were still seeing in this draft those twenty four twenty five year old rookies because they got the extra year due to COVID. Kean Coleman didn't take advantage of that. He could have stayed at Florida State for probably two more years and been an All American. He comes out early. I wonder if at twenty two or twenty three, that's when it really transitions for him where he's not just a college player trying to find his bearing. He feels like a true professional wide receiver.
Sean McDermott was asked about Keon Coleman earlier this week and the offseason that he's had up until this point. McDermott said that he was impressed with the way that Keon Coleman came into this building, how he spent a good part of his off season away from this facility, focusing on working in the weight room and seeming like a more mature player in his second NFL season. I know the Bills are expecting him to take a step forward in that second year. We got to take a break. When we return back to the tweet sheet. Also answering more of your phone calls next, do you have an under the radar player that you think could have a big impact on Buffalo's roster in twenty twenty five. I give us a call with your answer next. On One Bill's Live, We're presented by Clyde Health on Buffalo Bills Radio.
Welcome back to One Bills Live.
In our previous segment, we were talking about players who are entering their second year on the Bills what those projections could be.
Ray Davis in year two had.
Some pretty good projections in terms of numbers that are elevating from his first season into year two. And I asked about Keon Coleman where he would fit into some projections for year two. But as you told me in the break, there are it's hard to compare Keon Coleman to other rookie wide receivers.
Yeah. So, Kean Coleman last year, this is actually hilarious, had twenty nine catches for five hundred and fifty six hours in the regular season. So I plugged him into you know, very similar rookie season output from wide receivers. Three other players that I mean, maybe I needed to broaden the similarities, but being pretty specific, here are the three other receivers that had a very statistically similar rookie season to Kean Coleman. Bob Mann in nineteen forty eight for the Lions. Never heard of him, but hats off to him. Ray Butler nineteen eighty Baltimore Colts, Okay, and Hassan Jones of the nineteen eighty six Minnesota Vikings all right, So it's at this point unless I really broaden the range to make it not that similar. It's hard to project Kean Coleman in this model that I have because twenty nine catches for five hundred and fifty six yards over nineteen yards per catch, but without a lot of volume. We just don't see that very frequently from a rookie wide receiver.
No, and he missed the slew of those games during the season, didn't have the comeback that a lot of people were thinking he would. So a sample of a season, but definitely different to maybe project in a year or two where you're hoping this player will be fully healthy and you know, have a better understanding of the offense, more confident, more mature, more strong, you know, all of that that you hope a player can can improve upon, especially from your first season to your second season in the NFL.
Let's get over to the tweet sheet.
Our question for you today under the radar Bills can to make a major impact this season. Do you have a player in mind? Tweet at us or give us a call at ATO three to five point fifty Corgan Moving Systems is the official equipment moving company of the Buffalo Bills and first from k Bills. Their answer is Cole Bishop, Max Harrison, and Keon Coleman should all make more of an impact than they're being talked about, at least outside of Buffalo media and fans. I think those are three names who could all have big impacts this season. We've talked about Max Harrison and Keon Coleman in this show so far, but not Cole Bishop. And he's somebody who Sean McDermott commented on during his press conference earlier this week, and he said that Cole Bishop has spent a lot of time in the weight room this season. That's one area that McDermott was proud of as he you know, came back to one Bill's drive and thinks that Bishop has a better understanding of Buffalo's system on defense and with that you can play faster, you can figure out where your cheats within the system. How can you really let your light shine based on what your strengths are? And Cole Bishop is somebody who's going to be fighting for that safety spot next to Taylor Rapp.
So I'll be honest. The first three picks for the Bills last year, Cam Coleman had kind of an up and down year. Wasn't always it seemed like he wasn't sure where to line up or which route to ron And really Sean McDermott and Josh Allen spoke to that Dwayne Carter flash but then got injured and really didn't do much once he returned from injury. Cole Bishop gets injured in training camp. Puts him behind the eight ball schematically. But he is the one I am least concerned about entering year two because as a draft analyst at Utah he felt so much like a Bill's safety they had him, and safeties do a lot in today's NFL and in college, but he not only at Utah was positioned at linebacker, in the slot, at free safety, maybe a corner, sometimes as a strong safety, as an overhanging rusher from the outside, as a blitzer. He not only did all those things, he excelled in those areas and he ran sub four or five at the combine. So the athleticism and ranges there. And if you're telling me that Sean McDermott has mentioned that he's not only balked up, but he has a better grasp of the system. I think the lights are going to come on for Cold Bishop in hear.
Two watching Cold Bishop on the field on Tuesday. They are only in shirts.
And helmets, no pads yet.
But I think Bishop did look stronger and bigger than he looked last season, So that's an improvement there as well. Let's get back to the phone lines to Bobby and Buffalo joining us. Now, Hey Bobby, Hi, how are you doing good? How are you today?
I'm doing good, Maddie. It's it's your pleasure to be to be on with you guys again. But I wanted to I wanted to get to the question what to whereas to where I see the question who is who is? Who is your Bills under the radar candidate to make a major impact this season? Well, will Maddie and Chris. I don't. I don't have a specific player in mind. I'm just going to say the entire but that the entire Buffalo Bills team is going to be under the radar. And and the main reason why I say that is because of this. Because number one, we have an m v P quarterback named Josh Allen. Okay, that that that's number one. Number two, the Bills picked a great cornerback, Sensation and and and Maxwell Harriston.
I believe that.
Listen. I believe that Maxwell Harriston, if he plays the way he does, oh, he's going to be candidate. I believe he's going to be one of the candidates for Rookie of the Year next year. Okay, And and plus and plus in the division that they're in, you know, with with with teams they play every year, like the Jets and Miami and New England. As a matter of fact, I did hear I did hear one of the odds makers, uh say. I heard it on ESPN the other day. I did hear one of the odds makers say that the Bills are favorite to win the AFC East again this year. But someone said that the New England Patriots are going to be second, right behind the Buffalo Bills. Okay, and and and you know what, that remains that remains to be seen. But as I stated before, you know under the radar. This entire Buffalo Bill's team is gonna be under the radar this year. Reason and another reason why is this? Okay, I looked at everybody's looking at the Buffalo Bills schedule, Okay, and and I'm looking at it as well. Okay, And everybody is saying that the Bills our favorite to win all they are favorite in all seventeen games on their schedule. Well, me, myself personally, is this. I look at the Bills schedule and I'm looking at the Bills finishing with these one with these one of two records. They're either gonna finish the same as they did last year thirteen and four, or they're gonna finish one up fourteen and three. Okay, but listen, Bill's mafia. If you disagree with me, talk to me. But I strongly do believe that they're going to finish with those either one of two records. Okay, Maddie, look for look forward, look forward. I'll look forward to your questions. And Chris, God bless you, sir, God bless you, Maddie. You guys, take care and have a good day.
Thank you, Bobby, you as well.
I think thirteen and fourteen are great numbers for win totals for the Bills in the regular season and looking at the team as a whole, as an under the radar candidate. We spoke yesterday on the show about an article that was released on NFL dot com. I believe it was and it was ranking the most complete rosters and Buffalo is five behind. I think it was the Lions, the Ravens, the Chiefs, and the Eagles. And Chris Brown said, you know, how do you feel about that? And do you believe the Bills are five? Do you believe they're better? And similar to what Bobby said, you know, it doesn't matter to me if the Bills are under the radar on some of these lists. This is a team who has thrived in the past off being a team where your backs are against the wall and people are counting you out and you got to go prove yourself.
So I'm okay with a little bit of that.
Yeah, I mean I would say that because the Bills have the Ragning MVP in Josh Allen, I would say that makes them not under the radar, right, But if you are going to follow what Bobby's saying the entire team, I think the reason would be a lot of new faces on the defensive side and a lot of these guys are rookies, or we don't know about the health and the availability of Joey Bosa. We haven't seen him in this scheme. Michael Hoyt, Larry Ogan, Jobi suspended for the first six games, Trey White back, Dame Jackson back, all these players that we've talked about. I think if we're looking at it from a thirty thousand foot view that the Bills, you could say, hey, I think this Bill's team is really, really good, and even despite being favored in every game, is still under the radar. It would be because we have not seen these A lot of these pieces that are going to make plays on the defensive side. Do it yet for.
Buffalo Sloth knows Ball says it's Milano. Even if he's eighty five percent of what he was as an All Pro, if he can stay healthy all year, that'd be a huge boost to the defense. Another one from Ulis says, Javon Solomon Bosa's already hurt, Hoye on a suspension, and everyone in love with Jackson, but he's had a year to get stronger and was figuring it out at the end of the at the end of last year.
One hundred percent. I'm glad someone brought him up. We haven't talked about him today. We've seemingly talked about everyone else on the defense besides Javon Solomon. He was another draft crush of mine. And maybe that's because I'm a small guy like Javon Salomon. I mean, he's a lot bigger than I am, but relative to most ads rushers in the NFL, he's a little shorter. And I feel like every time I'm on with you, we end up talking about this. Do not forget that Javon Solomon has thirty four inch arms. He has arms that are offensive tackle long. They're longer than Will Campbell, the offensive tackle out of LSU that the Patriots picked inside the top five. So he has that length. And I think because of the length, and because he's not so tall like the Greg Russeaus and the Epinessa's and even Landon Jackson, it allows him to use his hands and his natural leverage to get up and under offensive tackles, where if you're looking at it from a scouting perspective, matters a lot. If you're not someone that is going to win with sheer speed and sheer power, you better win the leverage battle. And I think Javon Solomon, in that final season at Troy leading college football in sacks, proved that he's always been this height. He understands how to win in that way. I'm really looking forward to the potential step that he takes in year two.
For Javon Solomon, it's about putting it together in his second season. You have one season under your belt in the NFL. How do you feel in this system? Understanding it a little bit better?
Can you play faster? Can you play stronger?
All things that we're looking to see out of Solomon in his second season. Got to take a break here, but when we return, closing things up here on one Bill's Live, We're presented by a Colida Health.
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Question of the day under the radar Bills candidate to make a major impact this season?
Do you have an answer? We've seen Cole Bishop.
Javon Solomon, Matt Mulano, Elijah Moore, Jordan Hancock is the name that popped up. Dorian Williams too, Ray Davis.
What about Dalton Kincaid.
Yeah, I think as a former first rounder who was injured last season and we saw a big breakout as a rookie. Absolutely a great one. I'm gonna read a quick stat from Rich Reebar of Sharp Football. The target share went actually on the field last year among tight ends, Dalton Kincaid was at thirty point nine percent. That was the second highest in the NFL, only behind Trey McBride. So his lack of production was not for a lack of trying for the Bills last season. I think the injury was a major key and the maybe the everybody eats mentality. But almost thirty percent or thirty one percent of the targets for Kincaid when he was on the field shows or indicates her hints that Joe Brady wants to utilize him a lot in this offense. So he is primed to be that breakout player if he can stay healthy in year three.
Yeah, one thing that Brandon be and Angean McDermott wanted don't get Kaid to do and the offseason was bulk up so he could last an entire NFL season. I'm excited to see him on the field in his third season. Coming up tomorrow, Josh Reid from Channel four and former Bills player George Wilson joins the show We'll see You Then,
