What changed between 2019 and 2025? Why are interest rates so much higher? Why does it seem virtually unfathomable that the Fed will return to ZIRP anytime soon? Why do investors expect this rate cut cycle to be so shallow? The answer, theoretically, is that the neutral rate of interest has gone up. But what is the neutral rate of interest, and why has it moved? On this episode, we speak with Jamie Rush of Bloomberg Economics and Tom Orlik, the Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics. They, along with Bloomberg's Stephanie Flanders, are the editors of a new book titled The Price of Money: A Guide to the Past, Present, and Future of the Natural Rate of Interest, in which they attempt to directly identify what the neutral rate of interest actually is. We discuss the big changes over the last several years, including deglobalization, demographics, and datacenters, that are pushing this number higher.

Listen to our sister show Trumponomics: Trump Isn’t the Only Reason the Price of Money Is Rising
Read more:
Trump’s Contradiction: Demanding Steep Rate Cuts for a ‘Booming’ Economy
Fed Set to Drive Global Rate Cuts as Europe Shifts to Pause

Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

What changed between 2019 and 2025? Why are interest rates so much higher? Why does it seem virtually unfathomable that the Fed will return to ZIRP anytime soon? Why do investors expect this rate cut cycle to be so shallow? The answer, theoretically, is that the neutral rate of interest has gone up. But what is the neutral rate of interest, and why has it moved? On this episode, we speak with Jamie Rush of Bloomberg Economics and Tom Orlik, the Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics. They, along with Bloomberg's Stephanie Flanders, are the editors of a new book titled The Price of Money: A Guide to the Past, Present, and Future of the Natural Rate of Interest, in which they attempt to directly identify what the neutral rate of interest actually is. We discuss the big changes over the last several years, including deglobalization, demographics, and datacenters, that are pushing this number higher. Listen to our sister show Trumponomics: <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/trump-isnt-the-only-reason-the-price-of-money-is-rising/id1038108799?i=1000725960620" data-qa="message_attachment_title_link">Trump Isn&rsquo;t the Only Reason the Price of Money Is Rising</a> Read more: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-06/trump-s-contradiction-demanding-steep-rate-cuts-for-a-booming-economy?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=podcast&amp;utm_campaign=odd_lots&amp;utm_content=article" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">Trump&rsquo;s Contradiction: Demanding Steep Rate Cuts for a &lsquo;Booming&rsquo; Economy</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-06/fed-set-to-drive-global-rate-cuts-as-europe-shifts-to-pause?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=podcast&amp;utm_campaign=odd_lots&amp;utm_content=article" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">Fed Set to Drive Global Rate Cuts as Europe Shifts to Pause</a>
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Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Tuesday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.

Odd Lots

On Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets, and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday. 

On Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets, and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Why the Price of Money Surged in the Last Six Years

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/604b296a-86a9-41be-909c-b37000f06da4/transcript