Somehow, the American consumer remains quite strong. Despite higher interest rates, tariffs, general economic uncertainty and so forth, people are continuing to spend. And yet there are some pockets of weakness that you can observe, especially if you look at delinquency data for various types of credit. But even here the patterns aren’t totally obvious, as it doesn’t break down nicely among prime vs. non-prime borrowers. But there is one important divide: Do you have a ZIRP-era mortgage or not? According to Morgan Stanley housing strategist Jim Egan, there is a massive difference in how strained people are for those who locked in their housing costs prior to 2021 vs. those who didn’t. People with ZIRP-era mortgages are benefiting from low stable payments (which have declined on a real basis), as well as broad equity accumulation. Those who didn’t are much more strained in their finances. We discuss how this is playing out, as well as the state of the housing market more broadly, which has seen rising inventories, and the possibility for an overall downturn in prices nationwide.

Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Somehow, the American consumer remains quite strong. Despite higher interest rates, tariffs, general economic uncertainty and so forth, people are continuing to spend. And yet there are some pockets of weakness that you can observe, especially if you look at delinquency data for various types of credit. But even here the patterns aren&rsquo;t totally obvious, as it doesn&rsquo;t break down nicely among prime vs. non-prime borrowers. But there is one important divide: Do you have a ZIRP-era mortgage or not? According to Morgan Stanley housing strategist Jim Egan, there is a massive difference in how strained people are for those who locked in their housing costs prior to 2021 vs. those who didn&rsquo;t. People with ZIRP-era mortgages are benefiting from low stable payments (which have declined on a real basis), as well as broad equity accumulation. Those who didn&rsquo;t are much more strained in their finances. We discuss how this is playing out, as well as the state of the housing market more broadly, which has seen rising inventories, and the possibility for an overall downturn in prices nationwide.
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Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Tuesday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.

Odd Lots

On Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets, and economics. Join the conversation every Monday, Thursday, and Friday.

On Bloomberg&rsquo;s Odd Lots podcast Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets, and economics. Join the conversation every Monday, Thursday, and Friday.

Jim Egan on the Mortgage Gap That's Dividing America

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/bddb521c-3947-451d-aec4-b2fb014a3640/transcript