For investors, geopolitical risks are always lurking as a factor that could upend trades for obvious reasons. When war breaks out, it's crucial to have some kind of understanding of what it will mean for various markets (such as oil or grain) and how long the conflict can persist. But is there any way to analyze these things scientifically? Many people are paid by investors to try to do exactly this. On this episode, we speak with Andrew Bishop, the global head of policy research at Signum Global, about what he does, and how he attempts to forecast the future. We use the recent conflict between Israel and Iran (as well as other sources of global tension) to get a better understanding of how he goes about forecasting, how investors use his research, and what he sees going forward.

Read more:
Israel Is Now Peerless in the Middle East and Markets
Israel Emerges Stronger From Iran War, But Risks Blowback

Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

For investors, geopolitical risks are always lurking as a factor that could upend trades for obvious reasons. When war breaks out, it's crucial to have some kind of understanding of what it will mean for various markets (such as oil or grain) and how long the conflict can persist. But is there any way to analyze these things scientifically? Many people are paid by investors to try to do exactly this. On this episode, we speak with Andrew Bishop, the global head of policy research at Signum Global, about what he does, and how he attempts to forecast the future. We use the recent conflict between Israel and Iran (as well as other sources of global tension) to get a better understanding of how he goes about forecasting, how investors use his research, and what he sees going forward.
Read more: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-09/israel-is-peerless-in-the-middle-east-and-markets?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=podcast&amp;utm_campaign=odd_lots&amp;utm_content=article" data-testid="link-with-safety" data-renderer-mark="true">Israel Is Now Peerless in the Middle East and Markets</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-29/israel-emerges-stronger-from-iran-war-but-risks-blowback?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=podcast&amp;utm_campaign=odd_lots&amp;utm_content=article" data-testid="link-with-safety" data-renderer-mark="true">Israel Emerges Stronger From Iran War, But Risks Blowback</a>
Only <a href="http://bloomberg.com/" aria-label="http://Bloomberg.com" data-testid="inline-card-resolved-view">Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking &amp; World News</a> subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at&nbsp; <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots?in_source=oddlotspodcast" data-testid="link-with-safety" data-renderer-mark="true">bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots</a>

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Tuesday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.

Odd Lots

On Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets, and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday. 

On Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets, and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

How a Geopolitical Analyst Predicts the Outcome of War

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/462aeeec-3b28-4ad0-b371-b31500e9c521/transcript

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