According to Dirk Willer, the Global Head of Macro Strategy at Citigroup, we are definitely in bubble territory. Per his research, the stock market has been in a bubble since May. Unlike many people, whose definitions of bubbles are a bit more vague or a bit more based on sentiment, Dirk's work focuses on precise timing and price indicators that distinguish bubbles from mere booms. Furthermore, he argues that when the bubble first forms, the correct move historically is to buy into it and then just accept that you'll never nail the top perfectly. On this episode, we talk about his overall approach as well as the signs of when the bubble has come to an end. We also talk about current parallels to the dotcom bubble, why gold has had such a monster year, and the signs from the Treasury market that make the US look increasingly like an emerging market.

Read more:
Stock Bounce Wanes on Fed Angst as Bitcoin Plunges: Markets Wrap
Gold ‘Trading Like a Meme Stock’ Sets Up Miners as Levered Bet

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According to Dirk Willer, the Global Head of Macro Strategy at Citigroup, we are definitely in bubble territory. Per his research, the stock market has been in a bubble since May. Unlike many people, whose definitions of bubbles are a bit more vague or a bit more based on sentiment, Dirk's work focuses on precise timing and price indicators that distinguish bubbles from mere booms. Furthermore, he argues that when the bubble first forms, the correct move historically is to buy into it and then just accept that you'll never nail the top perfectly. On this episode, we talk about his overall approach as well as the signs of when the bubble has come to an end. We also talk about current parallels to the dotcom bubble, why gold has had such a monster year, and the signs from the Treasury market that make the US look increasingly like an emerging market.
Read more: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-13/asian-stocks-to-fall-as-fed-rate-cut-doubts-emerge-markets-wrap?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=podcast&amp;utm_campaign=odd_lots&amp;utm_content=article" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">Stock Bounce Wanes on Fed Angst as Bitcoin Plunges: Markets Wrap</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-12/gold-trading-like-a-meme-stock-sets-up-miners-as-levered-bet?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=podcast&amp;utm_campaign=odd_lots&amp;utm_content=article" data-renderer-mark="true" data-is-router-link="false" data-testid="link-with-safety">Gold &lsquo;Trading Like a Meme Stock&rsquo; Sets Up Miners as Levered Bet</a>
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Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Tuesday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.

Odd Lots

On Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets, and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday. 

On Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets, and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Citi's Dirk Willer on How You Know When the Bubble Is Over

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/406fb5d0-3aec-4371-a2d6-b395016df16a/transcript

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