Nate Silver tells us he is calling this midterms the “rock and a hard place election” — the background conditions are great for Democrats to win both the House and the Senate, but for that to come to pass, the party has to pull off some things that haven't happened in generations, like winning Texas. To believe that will happen requires a certain leap of faith, which is anathema to pollsters. Still, the polls generally believe Democrats are favored, but many professional pollsters would end up with egg on their face if the night does not go that way. Silver — the founder of Silver Bulletin — joins us today to discuss why popular narratives around polling error are wrong, prediction markets, why he doesn't think AI will replace pollsters, and what he is paying attention to tonight as the polls close.

Read more:
When Will We Know Who’s Won the Midterm Elections?
Trump’s DOJ Turns to Supreme Court in California Ballot Case

Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation:discord.gg/oddlots

Nate Silver tells us he is calling this midterms the &ldquo;rock and a hard place election&rdquo; &mdash; the background conditions are great for Democrats to win both the House and the Senate, but for that to come to pass, the party has to pull off some things that haven't happened in generations, like winning Texas. To believe that will happen requires a certain leap of faith, which is anathema to pollsters. Still, the polls generally believe Democrats are favored, but many professional pollsters would end up with egg on their face if the night does not go that way. Silver &mdash; the founder of Silver Bulletin &mdash; joins us today to discuss why popular narratives around polling error are wrong, prediction markets, why he doesn't think AI will replace pollsters, and what he is paying attention to tonight as the polls close.
Read more: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-02/when-will-we-know-who-s-won-the-midterm-elections?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=podcast&amp;utm_campaign=odd_lots&amp;utm_content=article" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">When Will We Know Who&rsquo;s Won the Midterm Elections?</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-02/trump-s-doj-turns-to-supreme-court-in-california-ballot-clash?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=podcast&amp;utm_campaign=odd_lots&amp;utm_content=article" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">Trump&rsquo;s DOJ Turns to Supreme Court in California Ballot Case</a>
Only <a href="http://Bloomberg.com" data-inline-card="" data-card-data="">http://Bloomberg.com</a> subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at&nbsp; <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots?in_source=oddlotspodcast" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots</a>
<a href="http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter</a> Join the conversation: <a href="https://discord.gg/oddlots" data-prosemirror-content-type="mark" data-prosemirror-mark-name="link">discord.gg/oddlots</a>

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday, Thursday, and Friday

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday, Thursday, and Friday

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.

Odd Lots

On Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets, and economics. Join the conversation every Monday, Thursday, and Friday.

On Bloomberg&rsquo;s Odd Lots podcast Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets, and economics. Join the conversation every Monday, Thursday, and Friday.

An Election Day Special With Nate Silver

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/8d41f02c-cfbb-4d5d-9940-b4f6012379c2/transcript