Gregg and Cynthia Frelund are back for another week of Man vs Model head-to-head pick battle. First, Gregg and Cynthia look back on their week 3 picks (00:34) . Then, our duo give us their week 4 picks. Gregg and Cynthia take us to the motor city for their first pick (00:45). Next, Cynthia gives us her second pick in a big divisional game taking place in Atlanta (5:05). We then head to Arizona as Gregg gives us his second pick (7:40). We then go to Minnesota for Cynthia's final pick (10:30). Gregg for his final pick takes us to Jacksonville (13:12) and he goes over the results from last week's extra picks and he gives us his week 4 extras (17:00).
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we love a good one sided rivalry. I'm Greg Rosenthal in Studio five, NFL Network with one of my favorite people at the company in the world.
It's Cynthia Freeland.
Yes, we are back picking games against the spread man versus model, your computer model. We're both four and five on the season. Cynthia, I went too and one last week, you went one in two. We're forgetting about the past. It's been a tough season, it's been unpredictable. We look forward and I'm gonna just I'm gonna kick us off here and see if we're on the same page. Yep, let's go Seahawks plus three point five to start it off against your Lions. I'm not doing this as a personal attack.
I don't take it as that.
I'm doing it as a bit of history.
So I mentioned it off the top, like a one sided rivalry. You wouldn't think think that this is such a one side rivalry, but it is. What did you say on game debut? They haven't beaten them since twenty twelve. That is outrageous and I know that next time. That has nothing to do with.
This particular matchup in my heart, But.
Gino Smith and the Seahawks have won in a couple of score fests against Dan Campbell's team. Again, it's different coaching staff, so I don't think that tells us that much, but the injury situation for the Lions is worrisome to me. I think the Seahawks have a good chance to win this game straight up. If you look at Gino Smith versus man coverage, just you're outstanding seventy three percent completion percentage. Who plays almost more man coverage than anyone in the league. It's the Detroit line. Only one team plays more man covers. Okay, just so you know, second forty six or so. Wait, you're with me on this. You're with me, like this is going to be one of your three picks.
This is one of my three picks. Yeah, we are aligned.
Okay, So why why do you like the Seahawks against your team other than you're kind of emotionally hedging.
I think I'm definitely emotionally hedging, But it only works if your math also works for this whole man versus model thing, and the model actually has that as one of the highest out puts as well. Even though I have the Lions winning in the straight up version of the equation. Here's the reason number one for rank or rag Now number two, Marcus Davenport, number three, Derek Barnes, number four is Sam Laporta playing number five.
Like, keep going with.
This into report because it is a mile long and that is a problem. But the Frank Ragnow one specifically is massive because you haven't even seen Jared Goffe as well good with play action this season, and he's had the best run success rate in the league. So if you're really good at running but play action isn't working for you and you don't have your great center, it is a gnarly ride. I do think there's gonna be more than forty six and a half points in this. So just so you know, you just throwing that one out of there, that one's like, you know, you put.
The on your in your little note.
I got the extra picks for my notes.
I guess you put mine on there because I will. This is a this is going to be a scorefest situation because I do think there are some tricks Ben Johnson. This is like, maybe this is how he gets a job, right, Mike McDonald got his job that Lion's game last year. Mike McDonald that one of the reasons he got the game. So now it's Ben Jonson start. Even though I don't ever want him to leave.
I love that you mentioned that that. Look, Mike McDonald had a game plan that made Jared Goff in this Detroit Lions offense look worse than ever a year ago, and Frank Ragnow their center. The on off splits are crazy. I know this is in basketball or hockey, but when Frank Ragnow did not play last year, their offense was just not the same. And he has a lot of responsibility. It's one of the reasons why I think Jared Goff has played so well in Detroit. Why Derek Carr I think is off to a good start in New Orleans. He took a little bit off his plate. And you have a great center in Frank Ragnow usually who makes so many of the protection calls and does such a good job. It's just not the same. And yeah, this Seattle defense, it's a prove it game because they've played three bad offenses in a row. But ultimately I love the way they're playing up front. I think their cornerbacks are outstanding. Maybe there's some vulnerability in the middle of the field and that's why it's going to be a close game. But three and a half points in a game, I think Detroit has a chance to win.
I kind of love it.
I love that we're on the same side, by the way, because last week we went against each other.
Yep, I won. It was the Colts, but it was kind of a weird game.
By the way, ken Walker, if he plays, he went to Michigan State, there's like this emotion he that's gonna be a problem for the lines, even though they've been good at stopping the run. But remember I told you all those linebackers are out. But this could be like a Kenneth Walker, ken Walker, whatever you want to call him. This could be like a hey, you guys up there, and he's Lansing drive the seventy miles.
Southeast to Detroit. This could be a problem.
I'm glad you mentioned that, because, look, the Seahawks are not a perfect team. They have not been run blocking well. They've not really been pass blocking well other than their left tackle, and so that could be problematic against left tackle.
Great right tackle, that's gonna be a problem against Aid.
Yeah, Aiden Hudginson. They just move him to wherever the problem is. That's the smart way to do things. And the one thing Walker can.
Do that own forward.
That guy sounds like you should be awesome, but he's allowed the highest pressure.
He sounds like Carson still, like an adult entertainer. I think they they he joins that group. So I love that we're aligned. Okay, we're aligned, SOS this if man Vulursus model is to be trusted this year, we need the Seahawks plus three and a half.
Give me your second pick.
Okay, so this is my second pick now, I just I just want to make sure that we're like staying aligned here the Saints plus one and a half points. I have the Saints winning, like winning, winning, straight up winning. So if you're going to give me them plus a point and a half, I'm really going to like this.
Why.
Okay, I understand there's recency bias along with some of these lines where last week you saw the Eagles shut them down and you know they're away, et cetera, et cetera. But number one, the Saints have the best NFC road divisional rate, so fourteen games to four. I understand some of that is Sean Payton or Drewsbie's but don't worry about it.
We can deal with those details.
Like even but you know what Dennis Allen to you to be fair at Dennis Allen was on all those staffs exactly down pretty good Falcons offenses exactly.
But they the Falcons defense doesn't have the same horses that the Eagles defense has in order to not just stop the outside zone run, but also get those pressures up that really up the gut that really bother Derek Carr. So they don't have the personnel to do that. Matt Judon is the only guy that's really getting any pressure and that does not an entire zone running outside zone running and Derek Carr stopping team make right, Like they just don't have enough horses to be able to stop them.
Yeah, I think you look at their linebackers, Troy Anderson and I mean Kaden Ellis is a good player, used to be on the Saints and stuff. But they're a team I think you can push around a little bit. I'm with you. It's really funny you pick them because that they were on my list and I was really debating whether they should be my third pick or not. Here's it, I'm gonna Actually, I'm gonna They're gonna be my extra pick. We're aligned, were aligned, but I don't want to be too aligned. But but man versus Model, it's more like Man and Model this week. Yeah, we love the Saints, yes, plus one and a half.
I think this is a Ryan Nielsen revenge game.
I mean like, like, I know he's at the Jags now, right, but like they're all they both had him at certain points. So like this Saints defense that was two teams ago, and this Falcon syve is.
So it's like he's not even there.
There is a lot of intermixing.
Harry Fontano in the front office, those are like, yeah, I just love this rivalry. But I think if if you just were soberly looking at the first three weeks of play and.
The data and going to look at it drunk right going.
Into the season, we thought these teams were roughly equal, at least I did. Uh, then yeah, it doesn't surprise me that the Model spits out road victory. And if you look at like Dvoa, which I really respect as kind of a you know, one size fits all metric, the Saints are second so far and the Falcons are like seventeenth because the Saints have played three good opponents they I mean, maybe not three good opponents obviously with the Panthers, but three really high quality games where you blow two teams out, you lose a close game against the Eagles. I'm with you, all right. My second pick, this is the one I felt, uh second, you know, most strong second strongly about Commander's Cardinals, not the winner. I do like the Cardinals if I had to pick one minus three and a half, but I don't feel crazy about that.
But I like the over.
I believe it's fifty and a half right now or fifty word, depending on where you're looking. I believe that this is the worst defense in the NFL in Washington.
They can't cover anyone.
They try to play man coverage like they're putting Sandra Still out there on an island against Jamar Chase because they don't have any other options. This is a kid who's a rookie that maybe should be playing on the slot or maybe shouldn't be playing at all.
They just don't have players.
Dan Quinn is suddenly going for every fourth down because he knows he doesn't have a defense. Like pick a defensive stat that exists in the world.
Touchdowns allowed in the past game.
The Commanders are terrible at it.
How about rushing efficiency, how about yards allowed per drive, points allowed for drive, you pick any defensive stat that you want, the Commanders are the very worst in the league at it. And I think this is going to be one of those Kyler Murray seasons where fantasy wise, maybe even MVP race wise, he destroys in some matchups where, yeah, he's going to have some weeks where against good defense is where he struggles.
But he has those weeks.
Where it's like the four to five touchdown weeks, the eighty rushing yards two hundred and fifty passing yard weeks, And I think that's it.
Now.
We saw on the other side of the ball, Jaden Daniels, he's gonna get his Kyler Murray. I mean, Cliff Kingsbury is setting up like wide open receivers for him. He's hit and throws down the field. I don't think Arizona's that great either defensively, so I project like over sixty. I mean, I know no model would do that, but I like like thirty three to thirty one, so I think it goes way over fifty.
If I were picking on my gut, I would actually agree with you. But the model has something different primarily because of something that you hit on for both sides.
The run game.
The rushing efficiencies for both teams, not just the quarterback but also the running backs, the main running backs for each team. That slows pace down and sometimes when you have those slow paces, or when you take that fourth down, that's like a roll of the dice, right, and if you go for it on fourth down, you'll punt it.
Then it all changes.
Teams are crazy, so I that a'll make sense, and that's why I like statistically, I get it. But you look at weak one with you gut wise, but I don't Week one, Bill's Cardinals. Like the Cardinals, it was all these slow drives, but they still got the thirty four, yeah to twenty eight. You look at Commanders Vegels last week. Sometimes it was those slow drives and it was thirty seven, thirty three.
You're right, you don't usually score every.
No, but that's why it's the drive, like the time per drive, and typically you aren't getting six points per drive, seven points per drive.
The game is what we need. Though.
This is the antidote to the low scoring NFL Commander's Cardinals over that is my second pick.
All right, wrap your picks up. Third pick.
I think we're going to be on the opposite side of this one. But I have Minnesota and I'm getting I have Minnesota winning out right, So if you're gonna also give me two and a half points, then I'm gonna really really like this. I watched that defense we talked about this last week.
CJ Stroud. You can't blitz him. You know why he's he's great against the blitz. It turns out they blitzed him fifty percent of the time.
They had the most pressures last week twenty three total pressures. Thirteen came when they were blitzing, ten when they weren't blitzing. You know how many sacks they had five? You know how many came without blitzing, three and then two when they were blitzing.
So sign.
It's a really good sign because like a lot of times in football, we can identify what another team's weakness is, but how to adapt without losing your identity is a really tricky thing to do. And Brian Flores and this Minnesota defense they absolutely pulled that.
Off against the Texans.
I think this is an interesting one at lambeau Field. Understand there are some parameters that are different. We have a little bit of a question mark at the quarterback position, so they're going.
To have to a big deal though, isn't it like Jordan Love and theleik Willis that's a big difference to me, Like I'm going to pick straight up there. I don't feel confident in this game no matter who's the quarterbright. I don't feel confident in this game just generally. But I would take Jordan Love if he's if they're starting, and I wouldn't otherwise.
I would like take Jayden Reed in fantasy if Jordan Love's starting, But I wouldn't take them either way under either condition, which is why it's one of my favorite ones, because I don't think that there's enough horsepower there, especially when you factor in that the Packers defense is like a roller coaster, Like they have the most interceptions. They have seven interceptions, but they all sold out the second most yards after the catch over expected, so you're either running on them or they're completely turning.
The ball over.
So that's like like if that isn't like a home run swinger, like home run strikeout.
I don't know what is I struggled with this one. You know, the Packers events have been playing bitter lately, but it's been again to Anthony Richardson and Will Levis, I kind of just went with like man. Going into the season, Packers are only two and a half point favorites against the Vikings. I know the Vikings defense is shown to be a level that.
We cold what about Sam Darnold.
But coaching, to me, it's a rare case where Kevin O'Connell's is not a coaching advantage.
It's even because.
It's you know what, we didn't bring up what Aaron Jones revenge?
Okay, Aaron Jones revenge.
Aaron Jones is awesome.
But Aaron Jones is gonna get so much revenge twice in the end zone.
It's all about Aaron Jones.
Aaron Jones doesn't want revenge. He wrote a nice piece.
You just tell me to relax. That's so like Aaron Rodgers view.
I'm just saying, like, Aaron Jones is one of my favorite players in league top five and success right, one of my favorite running backs. But the Packers They're running game is among the best in the league too.
So everyone won with that one.
I help you win with that one because I'm not going to go against you here or even on my extra ones. That one, to me was just a question mark. You helped make up my mind for my third pick because you picked Saints and I was struggling with it. I'm going to go Texans minus six and a half now, I've seen it at six and a half or seven, but as we are going to tape, I see some six and a half's out there, so that's a big difference. You want to get the six and a half if you can, But either way, I'm going Texans. Okay, they're coming off a game against the Vikings.
I'm putting your points up here.
Yeah, yep.
They're going up a game against the Vikings, which was humbling for them. I believe them to be a Super Bowl contender, a very solid week to week defense. Who's going to get after the poor sisters offenses in the league, of which I can include the Jaguars as one. So like a bad offensive line, an offense with no confidence. And this is something I gonna mention about Washington too, which is why I do like Arizona in that game going on the road again on a short week, Like, the numbers for that against the spread are not good. Like if you're on the road on Monday night and then you're on the road again in a short week, even if you did well on the Monday night with Jacksonville very much did not, Like, that's just a disadvantage that you don't want to have. Yes, it's a division game, so there's some familiarity there, but the Texans to me are just a class above. And I do like teams that I believe to be real deal contenders coming off losses. I do think there's an emotional and mental focus sort of aspect, and then I look at the matchups. Yes, Jacksonville might get a cornerback or two back this week Darnold Savage and or Jerry and Jones, but like, that's still a mismatch against Nico Collins and Stefan Diggs. We'll see if Tank Dell is out there. So I like the mismatch on that side of the ball, and then on the other side of the ball, I really do trust this Texans defense and what Demico Ryans is cooking up. So overall, it is a lot of points, but Thears to me, are a bottom five team in the NFL against like let's say a top eight team.
That's that's not too many points for me. They lead the league in pressure rate. They that's that's the Houston Texans.
Of course.
When I'm looking at the opportunity that they have from kind of last year and you talk about a very good team, what do they do after a win? Well, if you look at last year, I mean CJ. Strout is five and one in those things, let's go. So that's another fact there. Like they are a good team, things happen throughout the course of the season. I think on game debut you were like, you know, this team is better. I picked them for the super Bowl, but I don't have them winning every game.
So that was just I wasn't going to get away. You can't give it away.
They got a win shot.
And it's two different mediums. It's okay, let's give let's give our man versus model lists.
Okay, But but the point is is you know they that even good teams don't win every single game. So I'm with you though. It's how you rebound, it's what you.
Make of it.
If you are a fantasy player, just watch that little Q on there's a Q on Nico Collins status, so just watch that.
It doesn't change anything.
Let's go Dalton Schultz though, I think that will be a good opportunity if there's no Nico Collins.
Okay, And of course the fund explit the review.
We're both on the Seahawks plus three and a hot half. I also agree with you that the Saints plus one and a half is a good one, but that's not one of my picks. That is your second pick, and your final pick is Vikings plus two and a half, and I am taking the Texans minus six and a half. I agree with you on the Seahawks, and I'm also going over commanders in cards and you mentioned the note card that everyone's talking about it.
Everyone is, you know what.
People stop me on the streets, they're like, can you give me a picture of Greg's no card?
The country is talking about it. They're like, why is Greg four and five with his main picks?
But Greg, why won't Greg tell you the note cards?
So we went back and I think checked out the note card record for the season I think is nine and three or eight and three.
I gotta go check week one.
There's like a divice on fire that comes into your I.
Didn't feel as confident this week.
That might be a reflection of the picks not going that well overall this year. But on the note cards have even great. I only have two for you this week. The Saints, I'm with you, yep, plus one and a half, and then I also like the Titans plus one and a half.
In Miami.
We don't know who the starting quarterback is in Miami, Snoopuntley would make me slightly more afraid. But when I watched the Dolphins at a week week base, I think they're the worst team in the NFL. I think they had major problems with two A tongue of Iloa again Dvoa. They're thirty two, so that matches my eye test. Like the Titans. They have a decent defense. They're twenty five to twenty six. I think that's enough of a gap, and some of that data is with to a tongue of Iloa as their quarterback and they're still thirty second. I think it's enough that their offensive line. I just don't trust them to win any game right now. I think the Titans get their first win of the season and I know your model agreed with me on that one.
Yeah, model agrees with you on that.
The one thing that I do want to point out about the Titans that maybe people are forgetting.
I don't know if they're forgetting or not.
Calvin Ridley's ability to score touchdowns turns out hasn't gone anywhere. So I'm looking at this game and if you're looking for a touchdowns more in this matchup looks to Ridley, you.
Know, I like that.
And you know what, Nuk Hopkins returned last week and he looked fantastic.
I love he is one of my all time favorite players. So it was like a vintage like sketch, like it just vintage.
I love the goal making plays despite not being that open.
Body control ridiculous. He's like, he's one of my all time favorites.
All right, That's what Cynthia does.
Check out her YouTube every week Numbers Game Man Versus Model. Obviously, we will be back next week to tell you about how being on the same side of these picks really paid off. But yeah, you should check out if you want more Cynthia Numbers Game.
It's outstanding.
We will be back on NFL Daily on Sunday.
Night.
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