Gregg Rosenthal is joined by ESPN's Bill Barnwell to recap the Bills beating the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football. To start, the guys discuss the unfortunate injury to Tua Tagovailoa (0:41) and the overall state of the Dolphins (9:50). The guys then shift to talk about the Bills' offensive performance (17:10) and surprising defense (22:35). After the break, Gregg and Bill talk about their preseason predictions and tell you which ones they feel good about (27:49), which predictions they regret (33:37), and what is a prediciton they wish would have made (39:35).
Note: time codes approximate.
Welcome to NFL Daily, where we'll always call it Joe Robbie Stadium. I am Greg Rosenthal here on a Thursday night. Yes, we're live on YouTube. Welcome, and to everyone else who's not watching, I'm with Bill Barnwell in a game that was well decided before the biggest thing to happen in this game happened. The Bills win easily in Miami thirty one to ten. Bill, and normally I'd be screaming and yelling and getting into the football of it all, but we got to start with a tongue of Ila who left this game in the third quarter with a concussion and quickly rolled out of the game. It was a scary hit on the field. It's tough to even know where to go with this Bill in terms of analysis, but it was one one of those moments that takes your breath away, unfortunately and felt familiar.
Yeah. I think the tough part for me is, you know, you could see what was happening right like it wasn't as if this was a random play in a random moment in a game where nothing could have been anticipated and nothing could happen Like clearly, this was a game where the Dolphins were struggling, Tua was struggling. Hed already thrown three interceptions, including a pick six, and clearly he wanted to make a play, right like, he wanted to do something for his team. He wanted to go above and beyond, and it just is unfortunate and sad to see that that led to you know, him taking a necessary hit on a play where you probably could have slit and got a first down. I'm not criticizing to it here, like I'm saying basically, you know, like the circumstances of the game I think led to it to do something that in a different situation he would have been smarter about. And that is unfortunate because you know, the Dolphins and Tua, like his history is well known. You know, the impact of the injury the Dolphins is significant, but the impact on the interim two is significant. I mean, this is a player who you know, there were serious questions about the future of his career a couple of years ago. I'm very happy he was able to stay healthy last year, very happy he got paid this offseason. But obviously, you know, just a heartbreaking injury for Tua, for Dolphins fans, for fans of the league. Just one of those things where everyone just felt awful the moment.
It happened, right, and it reminds you so much of you know, the injury he had really the second one, which was I believe on a Thursday night football game two years ago in the twenty twenty two season. So just to recap, this is the fourth known concussion that he's had since twenty twenty two. And he spoke before the twenty twenty three season and said that earlier that offseason, especially in the wake of the concussion, when he was out at the end of the twenty twenty two season, that he considered retirement, and that stayed in my mind, and it definitely was something that I thought about when he got this contract extension. The NFL moves so quickly that that contract feels like it was a long time ago, and it was just last month. It was in August, where you know, he gets ninety three million dollars guaranteed, maybe one hundred and sixty depending on how you look at it. And Mike McDaniel signs a contract before this season, and we're taping this after the game, We're going to be looking to see what Mike McDaniel says, at this point in the process, it's hard to imagine there's much of any specifics, but you do worry about a young man who obviously had questions bigger than football. Kaylee Hartung on Amazon, who did a good job throughout the night updating the audience, pointed out that he was ruled out six minutes after did say. Family was with him in the locker room, and you could see Bill Mike McDaniel and the look on his face. It was a very human moment when, first of all, when he kissed two on his way out, but also they had a shot on him. I don't know if you saw. It was early in the fourth quarter and the game's going on, and you could almost just read what was going on in his head that he was already thinking ahead to what's next. And there's no point in guessing like how long this is going to be or anything like that. But obviously they're going to have to come up with some solutions in the short term and maybe in the medium tournament, and we'll see how long term it is for what they want to do at quarterback. It was Skyler Thompson tonight who won a backup battle and that backup battle, which I was following pretty closely with Mike White in training camp, now looms a little larger just in my mind because the word from their fans, from everyone that was tracking that, the reporters were that both backups were really struggling and had a really poor training camp, and Thompson kind of won that job by default, and it was a short sample, but he struggled tonight too, as did Tua when he was on the field.
Yeah, I mean a couple of things come to mind for me, you know, with the the tuit injury. In the big picture, right, I mean, this was a situation where, like you said, the league moves so fast that I really think after twenty twenty three, after a successful season where he didn't take a lot of hits. He was very smart with the football. He gets the ball out so fast anyway, you know, there is he talked about him doing jiu jitsu, practicing, you know, going taking hits, avoiding head injuries. You know, I think there was this hope that Okay, like he had this scary thing happened to him in the past, But things are different now, right, Like he is a smarter player, He's gonna be safer. No one's gonna get mad at him if he doesn't take a hit or if he's protecting the foot like you know, protects himself. Like everyone's on board with that. We're hoping this is a thing of the past and that this is a smarter safer to a tongue of vaaloa moving forward. And I think this injury sort of poked a hole in that balloon, right, like that is not the case anymore. Maybe that was naive, Maybe that was just hope as opposed to logic, but it did feel like, you know, that feeling of of you know, sort of to having moved past those injuries. Unfortunately it's not the case. He's still gonna be dealing with this.
I mean, it's one play. That's football, Like all these guys, no matter how safe you are, you're one play away. And you're right. I think it was such a good point to make because I hadn't really thought about that that the situation of the game might have led a little bit to the desperation of that play, just to just to situate it. It was thirty one to ten bills, so this injury did not really have a material impact on the game, in fact that the score was the exact same as the final score. They were inside the ten yard line. It's midway through the third quarter in tours, having a nightmare game. Now, the first two interceptions you could put on his receivers and the lack of depth. They have a wide receiver right now. The first one hits his receiver in the hands. It's maybe a little bit early, but it hit him in the hands, good anticipation, pops up in the air of the Bills get it. The second one Robbie Chosen, who's newly joined to the team. With the receivers who were involved in these plays weren't on the team in mid August. Doesn't seem like Chosen runs the route that Tua expects. He sails it. And then the third interception was just a play that Tua was trying to throw the ball out of bounds, but he was under such pressure his arm didn't get it there, and it was a really poor decision by him there. So it was a game where he obviously was not happy with how I was going because it was so similar to so many Bills games in the past that they put it up that they've lost eleven to twelve they've lost. To me, those don't matter as much as they've now lost five of six in the McDaniel era, and that to me is jermaine to this discussion, including a September game last week when the last season, rather when the Dolphins were undefeated and the Bills came in and waxed them. So we will get to the Bills side of it. It was a really important game for the Bills and they did a fantastic job. So we will give their fans and I know Eric, who's our producer, who's taking care of his four month old baby behind the glass and is like quietly gleeful that the Bills had such an easy game, Like, have some class Bills fans and Eric, let's finish though the Tua discussion, just from a practical standpoint, al Michaels mentioned that, well, Tua's got like the mini bye week to try to come back, and I'm just shaking my head here. It was not a good game for al Michaels. I'm just not I'm not sure this is the crew for Amazon. I just don't think it's I don't think they were up for it. Like they didn't provide context when Tua was coming off the field, they asked, really Hardtung to do a lot of that. You know, he compares it, you know, says it's ironic that it's Damar Hamlin in the moment and all this stuff. And I'm thinking it's probably going to be more of a mini by situation. But I couldn't help but look ahead, just because you start thinking about like managing the season and what's going to be next. They're at Seattle in week three, they're home for Tennessee in week four, and they're at the Patriots in week five. Then they have their their bye week after that. So that's just a little bit of context of who's coming up next. Do we dare like speculate about whether it could be anyone but Skyler Thompson here, you know, Ryan Tannehill Dolphins fans were hoping might be an option when when this battle was going on. Skylar Thompson hasn't really progressed, I don't think since his rookie year when he actually was surprisingly good and played pretty well against the Bills in the playoffs. You know, there is a former Patriots quarterback that's out there that they once tried to sign during the season. I'm just saying, it's not that crazy their owner wanted them, then, is it that crazy Bill barn Moore? Or am I getting way too ahead of myself?
Like Ted, I think you're getting a little ahead of yourself. And I would say, Greg, really, you know the thing that gets lost in the shuffle here with the Dolphins is they're already feeling the impact of the two assigning. And I don't want to talk about what might happen with two down the line. In terms of the contract, I don't think that's this is the tire of place for that. But in terms of the roster they constructed around what was presumably going to be a healthy two of this year. Think about the interceptions in this game, Like you said, the first two picks two players who were not on the roster in mid August, fourth and fifth wide receivers behind the big two in Braxton Barrios, guys who are not making a lot of money because the Dolphins can't afford has spent a lot of money on their third, fourth, fifth receivers. The third interception comes into play where the left side of the line gets caved in. They have they're on a third string guard. I believe after injuries and of course we lost Robert Hunt to the Panthers this offseason in free agency, and then toront Armstead. They're very good left tackle who has a significant track record of battling injuries. Himself, came out for that play to get a shoulder. Harnet suggested he ended up leaving the game later on as well. That to me is sort of, you know, even if you go out and get a Tannehill, even if you go out and get Mike White, even if Skalar Thompson does play better than he has in years past, this is a much more limited version of last year's team and a team that is rebuilding on the offensive line, a team that has, you know, questions on defense with the pass rush, and because we were okay against Jacksonville in the second half, but inconsistent with the pass rush. The secondary is a work in progress. They have some you know, they have veterans there, but some changes there as well. I just have this sort of question about, you know, even given even if you know, hopefully Tua is able to recover and come back relatively quickly, Greg, what we've seen from this team the first two weeks does not suggest they are, you know, even close to what they were a year ago. Let the competitive to the point where you think they're they're taking a step forward. And you know with a roster where you have guys like Tyreek Kill and Jalen Ramsey, who are you know, exiting the prime of their careers.
Right, And that's a good point because look, before the injury, Tyreek Hill and Jalen Wattle were both very cool in this game and it's been an inconsistent pass He's act very different than the Dolphins how they started last season, actually two seasons ago to Tyreek Hill finishes with only three catches for twenty four yards. Wattle goes four for forty one. Eric let's throw up a question here from our YouTube viewers. But Cody home asked, why were the Fins running so much? That's an interesting question. I think that was the plan coming into it. So I think they were effective running the ball at halftime. They actually had one hundred and one yards rushing on twenty carries. Midway through the third before the two injury, they had one hundred and forty three yards on like twenty four carries. So I think the plan tonight and it goes to what you were saying, Bill was they don't have a third receiver. Odell Beckham has not been healthy. I mean, they should have probably seen that coming last week. Actually, they had two tailbacks on the field, whether it was a full back or two running backs, because they had most h chan on the field at the same time over fifty percent of the time. I mean, they are right at the center of going heavier personnel and running and throwing out of it. They've had two tight ends on the field quite a bit. They had two running backs on the field, and I think they rightly were thinking that they could run the ball well against the Bills, and they did. The situation of the game just dictated that it got away from them. And when they were throwing the ball, the Bills didn't blitz. I have to recheck the stats, but they didn't blitz once in the first half. So they're just laying back. They're trying to prevent the big pass. And even without their linebackers and they lost Terrell Bernard to a pectoral injury in this game, that is something to watch closely because they could be down there. Two really good linebackers, Matt Mulano and Trell Bernard for a while, if that's serious. They were able to make it work by trying to prevent the big play, so I don't fault the Dolphins for trying to run. They also lost Jeff Wilson actually late in this game, who had an oblique injury, and you mentioned Armstead, it was officially a shoulder injury. So just kind of a disaster for the Dolphins, who also, you know, Mike McDaniel struggles with clock management in this game. There was a lot going on, to your point, to make them a little bit more worry than just the tu injury.
Yeah, and Greg, you know, during the during the broadcast, from what I saw from what the announcers were saying, don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but they said the Bills were playing a ton of two high shelves and that typically for teams means you're going to have an advantage in the box, you should be running the football, and so I do think from their perspective they were going to be a run heavy team in this game because of how the Bills were coming out and defending. Like you said, the Bills were taking away the big plays, something Shownick damon defenses do extremely well historically is take away big plays, and they wanted them to run the ball, and the Dolphins were going to run the ball, and the Dolphins were running the wall pretty successfully. The only problem was they would end up in a third down situation and throw the ball and it would lead to a sack or an interception. And so they fell behind because they gave the Bills a couple of short fields and then, like you said, once the game script changed, it was unfortunately a still a mess. But you know, even into that two minute tro they were running the ball a ton, a lot of short passes. They weren't attempting stuff downfield because the Bills weren't giving them anything downfield, and that felt so much to me. The comparison I made on Twitter was it felt like the Jimmy Garoppolo drives with Kyle Shanahan where they did not trust Jimmy Garoppol in those situations, they did.
Not want to stress, they didn't want to.
Put it in tight spaces. Kind of felt like Mike McDaniel was doing the same thing that situation, where for him it was more important to deny the Bills another opportunity to score than it was to give the Dolphins the best possible chance of scoring a touchdown, and you know it ended up kind of being lost in the shuffle. But like you said, this was a situation where you know, even the broadcast was criticizing the clock management for the Dolphins in that situation. It was not an impressive piece of work. And you know, it led to a field goal, which is fine, but just a a very curious series of decisions from the Dolphins, who seemed very concerned about throwing the ball deep against Like you said, you know, a Bills team that had injuries at linebacker, they're rebuilding its safety. It's like this is a dominant Bill's defense on paper.
No, and I have an advantage on you, Bill and you know many of the rest of our industry. Now I'm getting the next gense that's live. Apparently I could have had this last year and I didn't even realize it. But yeah, split safety two. It was fine against at thirteen for seventeen, but you know, only one hundred and three yards in one of his picks, but that's a lot of throws. So they had the split safeties out there a lot of the way. And as I mentioned, it was Dolphins ball seven to seven very late in the first quarter when he threw that second interception, and after that point, it just felt like the Bill's offense was too big and tough, and they started just running it down their throats. And then when they were in a tough situation, Josh Allen started doing Josh Allen things. It's been a bummer talking about this to a thing. I mean, it's it's a bummer when we lose starting quarterbacks. This is the second primetime game that we've been talking about it. So let's feel good and let's listen to a positive highlight. Eric, give me your boy. Josh Allen finding James Cook on a great running throw to set up a touchdown.
Samuel goes back and forth and gets shut past of the outside, wide open inside the ten, and James Cook takes it in a lot of eye, can't down here, a lot of motion and finds the open man and the wide open man.
As it turns out, so that is fourth and three. That's actually early in the first quarter. And the reason I wanted to point that out is that they went for it. It's first quarter, it's scoreless, and I noticed this last week and I clocked it in two situations last week where Sean McDermott traditionally was pretty conservative, they went for it in a first half situation that was rather similar to that one and they didn't get it, and then a second half situation where they did get it, and I'm like, hey, if they're going to lean into this offense, I love that Sean McDermott is kind of finding finding religion when it comes to going for and fourth down because ultimately, as good as their defenses s grammatically and stuff like, this is an offensive team and they've been great on offensese first two weeks.
Wasn't he in Carolina when Ron rivera wonder yes transformation in NFL history from a team coach who actually cost his team games to very briefly a marginally aggressive coach and got about eight years of got eight years of jobs out of it. I mean, you know, you have Josh Allen, like you have that guy who is going to be a difference maker, who's going to terrify opposing teams in short yardage, And in that play, Josh Allen didn't too much, but it was a you know they called mesh. They just do some really cool motion to get some picks some natural picks for the swing route or sorry, the rail road, I should say, uh, And it's a perfect catch and throw in. James Cook is absolutely great player for that situation. So as long as they have plays they feel good about. I mean, they should absolutely be a team that's aggressive on fourth down. And you know, this is not the same caliber of Bill's team that I believe they've had in years past. This is a team that is in transition.
I might disagree with you there, buddy, I like disagree with you. I picked them to win the Super Bowl. I'm feeling good about it right now.
Wow, I picked them to win the AFC, so I felt like that was a pretty aggressive choice. But there's definitely positives here right Like, you know, the running game looks good. The von Miller looked kind of spry tonight for a guy who was pretty much anonymous last year. The secondary looks okay so far. I thought Arizona gave them a little more trouble than I would have liked. But I just feel like this is a team where the losing Stefan Diggs was their biggest story of this offseason, and that was not going to be as impactful of a loss as maybe people banned out to be. I think some of the players they lost this offseason were out of their prime years. They're doing with the injuries a lot. I think the moves that had to be made, and I do think the Spills team is better than Dolphins on paper. I do think that the Spills team is good enough to win the division. But of course, so much that's going to come down to how healthy Josh Allen is for seventeen games.
Right, I mean you can say that about any great quarterback. And look, Josh Allen didn't have to do much to Night thirteen for nineteen for one thirty nine in the air with a touchdown because the running game got going in because they just turned the ball over on offense, I mean on defense. But you know, the reason I went with him was well more just that it just seems so hard to three p and I just felt the team out of it. I'm going to pick an AFC team. There's too many good teams, and Josh Allen is he's doing like an MVP year. I mean, this is all like ridiculous things to talk about record. They reminded me of the twenty twenty two Chiefs where it's like you have the offensive line. I think this is the best offensive line of the Bills era with Josh Allen. I think this is the best coordinator and the best fit just right now for where they're at, that this can be a really good year and that they have enough options. So Khalio secure Tonight their leading receiver again five for fifty four. He only had to run sixteen routes. So again, this was a strange game, but what I was talking about in the first half, when they needed to, they just kind of leaned on the Dolphins defense, which seemed to start getting tired, and Cook ends up going eleven for seventy eight and two touchdowns. Let's listen to one more play. It was actually a near touchdown, but it was Josh Allen being Josh Allen and setting up what ended up being a Cook touchdown.
Low snap dancing, looking downfield, firing downfield. Part at the two yard line. They'll mark it at the one yard line, so Allen extends to play. Ty Johnson is the third down back, normally stays in the block. Send him out in the pattern, find him at the one yard line.
And yeah, if you're watching that play over again, you can see it's Jalen Ramsey on the play. He's been on the wrong side of a lot of negative plays through two weeks now. He missed camp some injury concerns there right before he signed the contract. He wasn't even practicing. Whether that was injury or contract related. You know, some some people have different right, so some people have noticed though he has struggled these two weeks. But that was just a great roll out by Josh Allen on what was a third and twelve when the game was still up for grabs to Ty Johnson and yeah, they they've been resourceful on offense. I'm glad you mentioned von Miller because I don't think we mentioned him on our show last week that he had five or six pressures in that game last week. He had a couple of nice moves. He didn't look like prime prime von Miller, but he looked like a plus pass rusher at which he was so far away from being. And man, they could use another one with Greg Russou and tonight. Not that I was watching von Miller every single snap, but he looked fast as hell on that sack, So that that is good for a team that has some negatives with injuries. I mentioned Bernard and obviously Milano's gone, and you didn't have Tron Jhonson. They've had some positives here from their veterans Dion Dawkins. Also, their left tackle has played very well through two weeks. So a lot to feel good about if you're a Bills fan.
Yeah, and really, you know, on both sides tonight, it felt like the game plan was attacking the linebackers. You know, for the Bills, there was a lot of the you know, throws out into the flats, some boots for Josh Allen trying to get stuff on the edge. And then for the Dolphins more of the tap passes, the reverses, the Jets sweeps, you know, trying to use their receivers in those roles or using some you know, eight chan in the flat quite a bit on some escort escort motion with those swing passes. But it felt like that was both teams identified that as a weakness for the other team. I think it was right for both teams. I think the Bills, obviously, you know, without Milano and then losing Bernard Earlie in the game, made sense to attack linebackers if you could. For the Dolphins, you know, they attacked David Long and coverage so that they you know, I know Ramsey was in coverage on that big play, but it felt like they wanted to, you know, attack the linebackers where they could and so that you know, it feels like if there's a weakness for the Bills right now, if Bernard does miss time with a pectoral injury, you feel like that would be it. But they looked fine without Milano the first two weeks, so hopefully Sean mcdermoty was done a great job coaching linebackers in the past. Can have them get by without Milano and Bernard for a stretch.
Yeah, they I mean they're down to it though.
You know they they lost and we too.
They lost the linebacker to Seattle on the off season, and uh, they do have Dorian Williams from Tulane University stepping in and he's at least not stood out in a.
Bat inevitably on this team at one point or another.
Think think AJ Glyde's retired at this point. They do have a man bail in spector. Is AJ Glyde retired? I don't know. Come back, Aj, We would love to have you start.
Looking back and Greenok, Greig, You're the thing I wanted to say about the quarterback situation. I just wanted to bring this up. Okay, the haves and have nots in the NFL for backup quarterback feel really distinct. Right where you have the you have the Dolphins, where obviously you hope too doesn't get hurt. You don't know what's gonna happen. But Skyler Thompson was a guy who, like you said, not playing well in camp, kind of won the job just because Mike White lost it. Look at the Green Bay injury. I mean they had to trade from Lake Willis, a guy who's not been good as a pro quarterback and who looked absolutely abysmal in the two snaps he had filling in for Jordan Love at the end of the game in Brazil. You know, it's one of those things where that is a position we don't think about very much. But man, you know, even if you have a Nick Foles caliber backup, you know that is a big difference between guys who will replaced some level players.
And so it's why I overrate these quarterbacks at least for what the money they make every year. On my top one on one free agents, I always put Jameis Winston way higher. And Jameis Winston gets like a one year, three point five million dollar contract or whatever it is. He gets the equivalent of like a rotational defensive tackle, and yet the team that has just a somewhat capable backup, which I think he's even above that. Like sure, it's such an advantage to me. It's always been, especially lately, Uh, it's been, you know, a problem. All right, let's let's let's let's look at one more comment, uh from the audience. Here, come get zappy Miami says, I mean that now there is I think practice squad.
So I don't know what the purpose of getting Bailey's at.
No, there's no point.
You might as well say to get Jake Culer back in the Dolphins uniform.
Man, it is a depressing night because the people I'm trying to look for comments maybe from Mike McDaniel, you know, as we're taping it, it hasn't happened yet. And the reality is, like the Amazon postgame crew, they're already talking about retirement. People are writing about retirement. I think this is a very personal decision for to a tongue of Iloa, it's just the night of the injury. That to me that it's very premature, but the reality is everything's going to be on the table and we will just have to see it. It's an awkward night and just from a brass tax perspective, will remember the Tua injury. But it's also a very important night for the Bills, who go to two and zero and could really be in charge of this division once again. They've kind of owned the Dolphins the last few years. They beat him decisively twice last year and that's how they won the division through tiebreak and and now they will have the early tie break over the Dolphins too. Okay, I got to take a quick break, but we're not done yet. Okay, that's it for the game talk. But we're not done, Bill Barnwell, we are gonna just talk a little bit about some predictions because there's nothing I love more than the navel gazing, Bill, and I thought it would be fun just kind of as we wrap up the normal part of the week here on NFL Daily, we will be dropping our picks against the Spread show on Friday afternoon, and so that's going to be a separate show. So for anyone that was looking for Cynthia Freelan and I's picks. We're picking three games against the spread every week. It's very quick, and that's going to come up in a separate show a little later though. I did pick the Bills tonight, so I got that one right, but that wasn't part of that. We're going to go back and actually just quickly go through a few predictions that we made before the season even started. And you might say, we've just started week two, We've only played one game each and one game in Week two, and yet I want to already see what's changed your mind. So what we're going to talk about, Bill, is a prediction we feel really good about after one week, a prediction we've already started to regret, which is really my inspiration for this segment, because there are a couple, but there's one that really stand out that I'm like, why did I do that? And then just for fun of prediction I wish I made? So why don't we start about with you? We'll go a prediction that you feel good about so far?
Prediction I feel good about. I predicted that the Giants were going to take a further step backwards and that they were going to be if not the worst team in football, one of the worst teams in football. From what I saw in Week one, things were not pretty. I mean the offense was hopeless. They couldn't block. They that's not true. They couldn't block on some plays. They were probably like a C minus blocking. They were a D minus for quarterback play. Milick Nighbors is already unfortunately battling a knee injury. He was limited in practice today. The defense looked totally made Sam Donald look like the guy Sam Donald believers I've hoped he was going to be for about half a decade now. I mean, everything looked wrong for them at home and not like the Vikings are a great football team in my eyes. So I just that's that's one where I feel like I feel prekid about, you know, being skeptical of the Giants making a step in the right direction.
Well, I hope that you regret picking this as the prediction you feel good about on Sunday afternoon about four twenty Eastern because there was no game. I had a harder time picking this weekend than Commanders Giants, but actually went Giants in the end because I just feel like I honestly think they're two of the three worst teams in the NFL right now. So I'm with you that I agree. If I just had to guess, I think the Panthers, Commanders and Giants are the worst three teams. But the Giants are in year three of their program and they just have better players that I know. Daniel Jones was a mess, but that Commander's defense, they could have given up sixty points to the Buckets. There were so many receivers just flying open. And they don't have a lot of talent on offense either, So I just kind of maybe the vibes are enough for the Commanders to get away in that.
That is the only thing I can think of.
Yes, wait, I mean both teams are bad, don't don't get me wrong. I said it was the toughest game for me to pick all weekend. I wrestled back and forth, but I went with the Giants in the end because you know, they do have a bunch of good players, so and they're like year three, can't I think they can maybe go get a road win and at least get to one and one, But ultimately I think that will be a prediction you feel good about. I'm not arguing with you about that. Okay. The prediction I feel good about was fading the Falcons will also the Bill's winning the super Bowl. It's a little early for that. I had Josh Allen MVP Bills winning the super Bowl as like a three or four seed. Just felt like that's how they'll finally do it. Okay, that feels good too far, But fading the Falcons was one of my strongest things all off season. A lot of it was that Kirk Cousins was coming off a torn achilles and we just did just not assume that that's nothing and so far we'll see, but that really looks like something, and that the rest of the team wasn't so great that like he's coming into a good situation, that they were more like about a four to five win roster that had a terrible schedule last year, and that I know they added talent on defense, but just there were questions all over the place that even if it was normal Kirk Cousins, like normal Kirk Cousins is pretty up and down, and I am very concerned about him after that Week one performance that he's going to take a while maybe to get going, and that the injury could could really be an issue here early in the season or maybe throughout the season. So I'm feeling good about that prediction.
You should. I mean, that was a absolute mess and they were I know ESPN Satinfo had the numbers on them throwing one hundred percent out of the time in the shotgun or a hundred percent of the time.
Out of the ste pistol.
Yeah, no percent throw out of the shotgun, eight run rate out of the pistol. So very distinct play calling based on where Kirk Cousins was standing. Zero play action STAPs in the game. Kirk Cousins is I believe how did my column his slowest max speed of any game as a pro? I think Ben Solek had his column travel the least distance by far he's ever tried a game in the next gen era. I mean, everything just tells you Kirk Cousins cannot walk at a high speed, let alone run.
And I hope, I hope that's wrong because he's on Monday Night Football this week, and like I I want them to win and everything, but I just don't want it to be like this weird, sad thing with Kirk Cousins. All right, let's do the prediction that you already regret. So this is what this is the centerpiece of this segment here, like what is something that you said that you actually are already like legitimately moving off And if there's nothing, you could say nothing, But if you're just stretching a fine one, tell me that.
The couple that come to mind for me thinking I will go with Blake Korum being the lead back with the Rams and Ky you know, I think at some point he's going to have a role. I think it's going to be injury dependent on Kiren Williams. But I just over this offseason, I look back at like late round picks who haven't had big rookie seasons, who got significant snaps in the year two and what happened and so often they got benched quicker than anybody expected, like they were one and done in lead roles at running back. And then you know, Karen Williams gets hurt during the off season, he's dealing with the foot injury that he's had on the past. He gets put on punk return duty. I'm just like, man, Blake Koram might get seventy five percent of the snaps week one, like he might just be the lead back to begin the season and then Blake Korham got zero offensive snaps in Week one.
Man, that was that was a small level prediction because I have a feeling Bill actually that's gonna work out fine. In the end, I think you were on the right track. I don't know if he's gonna be the lead back now, but like it took a month for Kien Williams to get the job last time. In fact, I believe there was some thought that when they had the injuries during the game on the offensive line, that they just prioritize pass protection in terms of their backs above all, even like Ronnie Rivers might not blow up in a big hole, but they can trust him in pass pro and that you see with that with running backs, and maybe that will be an issue for a couple of weeks. But I think it might have been situational. I have a much bigger regret than that, a much bigger regret. So I don't know why I did this, Like I really leaned in at the very end. I got convinced that the Cowboys were just gonna be a total disaster, and I like I kind of bought into the hole. Everything was feeling negative and maybe it will turn negative in the end. But it really only took one game of like, oh yeah, Dak Prescott is freaking awesome, and I know it wasn't his best game ever, but he's still freaking awesome. And Michael Parsons is a you know, total beast, and they really seem like they have some answers defensively that I think will make up for a few of the lack of depth issues that they have on the offensive side. And I think the rookies on the offensive line will figure things out. And they've already started off pretty well. So that was when I think I went a little too hard on was the Cowboys go going?
I just think the Browns might not be that good. I mean, I had the Browns as a team likely to decline before the year. I thought about them, But the three things I thought about when you asked me the first question were Giants decline. I felt strongest about Brown's decline. I think about and Chargers improving, which they had the most Jim Harbaugh victory I can imagine in Week one against the Raiders. But I think the Browns their defense looked good but not great in Week one, and their offense looked just horrifically bad. And I think the Cowboys played a role on that. But I do think the Cowboys may not look quite as good against different competition in the weeks to come.
Okay, let us know you guys can let us know that are pass it along in the comments. What mistakes you've made into terms of your prediction. Chris Green says biggest regret is paying Daniel Jones. Yeah, well that that was two years ago. Although I do think the Giants doubling down this offseason, Joe Shane didn't want to. I mean, he wanted to trade up for Drake May, but he didn't want to enough. I think if they had really just sold the farm for him, I think the Patriots could have listened, and they had a good offer, but it didn't happen. And I don't know, if you know, there's a chance Joshane doesn't make it the year four and then he has regrets about that.
Can I give you my unifying theory of the New York Giants and Joshane's quarterback situation?
Please? Yes.
I believe Brian Davil and Joshane did not want Daniel Jones. I think when they got there, they were like, well, give this guy a shot, but we're probably drafting quarterback next year. And they had the same thing that happened with the Bills, where they had the unexpected year one playoff run with your incumbent quarterback you don't love. And Daniel Jones played well at the end of the year. His best football was the end of that season. It was his first healthy year as a pro. And I my guess is that ownership who had bought it Daniel Jones for several years wait for him to be good, were the driving forces in that Daniel Jones on track. Maybe Joshane didn't want to sign sa Quon Barkley.
I'm with you, but like it, what's gonna happen now, Like they're gonna lose their job, right, because that's that's they should have listened to them about Saquon. They should have actually listened to that and just paid saquad instead of paying who is that guard from the Packers, Oh, John run instead of playing John Runyon ten and a half, Like, go an extra million for Saquon. If you can't catch up your guards to be better than that, then that's probably on you, you.
Know, Greg, Greg, when you look at the draft and how nobody's going to draft in you look at free agency and how good teams safe bad decisions in free agency, good teams make bad Trades're like, why are these guys getting paid so much? Well, one of the reasons gms and coaches get paid so much is that sometimes they get fired because the owner strongly encouraged them to make bad decisions, and the owner is not the one who has to pay for it with their jobs. If you look at it the last twenty years of the Las Vegas slash Oakland Raiders, that describes a lot of what's happened with the Raiders franchise. But we'll see Daniel Jones. You know, it can't be much worse than it was week one. The Commanders, like you said, a lot of guys are running free last week. If anyone's going to make Daniel Jones look good, it is the Washington Commanders in week two.
Yeah, it's a it's a trend with these this giants. There's a sneaky amount of reports of medaling. I mean, you had the whole Geno Smith Eli Manning thing. You had really the last year or two of Eli Manning's career in different right, forms of fashion, which I think was was definitely owner related. All Right, finally we wrap with with the with the prediction you wish you made.
That's a tough one. The prediction I wish I had made.
You want me to go first?
Yeah, I'm trying to think about I got a couple of four.
I mean, well, first, you know, we did the over under draft on this show, and I didn't want to take Pats over four point five because it just felt like Homer. I believed that it could be about after one week. I'm like, well, they're already there. Tough, but that was one of the tough, tough parts of the schedule, a tough road game in Cincinnati. So there's one. I think they can get to five. So I didn't want to be a Homer. They were on my longer list when I listed the over unders last week that I liked, So that was one. No one, literally no one, I don't believe. On NFL dot Com, they asked like thirty six writers to make who makes the playoffs, and I thought that six seven spot in the AFC was pretty up for grabs. I didn't have the Dolphins or Jets there, so to me, I thought that the AFC East was going to be worse than people thought, and we'll see. But I was like, who makes it? And I ended up going Colts Chargers six and seven. But literally no one, and I think it was because of the preseason. Out of thirty six people picked the Steelers. It's like now already I'm like, yeah, maybe I should have taken the Steelers, like the Steelers are just fine the way. And then finally I had heard some buzz from people in Philadelphia about Quinnon Mitchell in training camp. I like, man, they really think they found someone. So a little Quinnon Mitchell, like defensive rookie of the year having a great season even after one week, I'm feeling like that, that feels a little that could have been a spicy pick that looks good.
A sprinkle. I think it's fair to say I had the Patriots over four and a half. I had them as one of the most likely teams to improve in my column. This year did not go boldly all the way to the playoffs, that is, to go quite that far, but crazy but stranger things. I mean, it would have been crazy to say the three thirteen and one Texans were going to win the AFC South last year, especially after they got blown out in Week one by the Ravens. And yet that is exactly Greg what happened. Football is a very strange sport. I think they're going to be a lot better than people give them credit for. They're not going to be a playoff team, but I think a seven win team this year in New England. And had that before the season prediction I wish I had made. I wish I'd had the Rams out of the playoffs. That was the one where for the longest time when I was doing my playoff article, I had them out and I kept the teams I was putting in. I didn't feel good about I didn't feel good about the Falcons. I didn't feel good about Tampa. I didn't feel good about the Vikings. I had the Eagles out so I couldn't pick them, and I felt like, if I had to pick, you know, a big team out, I was gonna go with the Eagles. And that doesn't feel great right now, but we'll see. But the injuries were already bad before they before the season began, and now kukin Akua is on the puplet or on ir for four weeks. Joseph Nopoom's on IR for four weeks. Stevenveil is on IR for four weeks. They were already banged up on the offensive line before this. I mean, they are just absolutely battling injuries so far. So I feel like I would have had Rams out and maybe been a chicken and kept Eagles in. But maybe I should have just stuck with it. And maybe it just because the Rams did. They were in position to beat the Lions in Detroit with you know, if they get a stop at the end of that game. So maybe I'm being a little too harsh.
Yeah, that was That was one of those games they played so well. You if you're the Rams, you would have loved to come away with a win. But it almost made me feel better about them. Then again, they feel like a month at least away from being anywhere close to hole on the offensive line, which is a pretty big deal. They're kind of built around their offensive line. As we wrap up, and thank you, Bill Barnwell, one of the best in the entire business, the best writer in the game right now. Check them out at ESPN dot com. As I tell them often, my ESPN Plus subscription largely for Bill, a little bit for Zach Lo too. I gotta admit I do love them.
A lot of people, a lot of people tell me Zach is very good.
I always throw that in.
I like that if I can be, if I can be like the ten percent of your ESPN plus behind.
No, No, you're number one, You're number one by far. Number two is actually the US Open Women's Tennis tournament Court thirteen, Like you can get that on ESPN Plus. Not to give them an but it's just like, oh, yeah, there's the Martakostiak match that I want to watch. I can't actually find that any anywhere else.
Individual high level but like modest court tennis speeds is what.
You're yes for. Yeah, love that. I mean what an athlete she is, but yeah, he gets it done. Also, the Bill Barnwell Short Show, of course is great podcast, and he's on around the Horn and you see him on NFL Live. He is everywhere and he's been great forever. Before we say goodbye, though, I will read you just something that Mike McDaniel said after the game onto a tongue of by Loa's injury, just said he's just worried about his guy. Not something you ever want to be part of. He'll get a proper evaluation and then the Dolphins will make a decision on how to proceed with the injury. And look, he said, every concussion is different and you'll see. But there was good news that Tua was in good spirits in the locker room after the game. That alone makes it a different situation, at least than the last time that he had it. He was talking to the team, to his teammates in the locker room and that made everyone feel better. And so we'll just have to see what the evaluation is. Obviously we're wishing the best for him. He also says, look, a loss like this early in the season as a gut check, and you know, they have to see how they respond. It's gonna either be a good thing or a bad thing to lose a game like this, and obviously losing their quarterback makes it all the more painful. That's it for our Thursday night recap show. Hopefully the next one doesn't have any injuries to speak of. We will be back on Friday. Thanks again, Bill. Like I said, with a really quick pick show, we're going to try it separated from the rest of the show. I know not everyone's into the picks against the spread, so we'll do that separate on Friday. Then we'll be back for the Sunday Week two recap. Until then, so happy that football is back.