Hi everyone, I'm Kitty Couric and this is next question. What was that song Maureen McGovern sang in the Poseidon Adventure? Am I dating myself?

Hi everyone, I'm Kitty Couric and this is next question. What was that song Maureen McGovern sang in the Poseidon Adventure? Am I dating myself?

This got to be a morning of if we can hold on?

This got to be a morning of if we can hold on?

Then This isn't exactly the morning after, but it is the night after the twenty twenty four presidential election, and I'm talking and debriefing with my good friend Brian Goldsmith. Brian, I am so happy to have you here. There's so much I want to talk to you about what happened, how the country feels, and where we're going with the future Trump administration.

Then This isn't exactly the morning after, but it is the night after the twenty twenty four presidential election, and I'm talking and debriefing with my good friend Brian Goldsmith. Brian, I am so happy to have you here. There's so much I want to talk to you about what happened, how the country feels, and where we're going with the future Trump administration.

So good evening, good evening, not much to discuss. Kind of a slow week, right.

So good evening, good evening, not much to discuss. Kind of a slow week, right.

Yeah, really, let's you know. I want to dis first start by asking your general reaction to this massive Trump victory. I think people thought it was going to be very close, and maybe you're going to tell me it was close, But when you look at that electoral map, you're like, holy shit, that's a lot of red.

Yeah, really, let's you know. I want to dis first start by asking your general reaction to this massive Trump victory. I think people thought it was going to be very close, and maybe you're going to tell me it was close, But when you look at that electoral map, you're like, holy shit, that's a lot of red.

What happened, Well, we may have overcomplicated this election. You had an incumbent president with a forty percent approval rating. You had sixty five seventy percent of the country saying we're on the wrong track. Stuff costs about twenty percent more than it did before COVID, and people were broadly dissatisfied with the status quo and the party in power, so they voted for the out party. Any political scientist would tell you that that is the most normal thing in the world. But of course Donald Trump is the least normal candidate imaginable, and given all of the as he would say, huge baggage that he's bringing into this race and now into the White House. I think a lot of Democrats, including me, thought this time would be different, but it wasn't.

What happened, Well, we may have overcomplicated this election. You had an incumbent president with a forty percent approval rating. You had sixty five seventy percent of the country saying we're on the wrong track. Stuff costs about twenty percent more than it did before COVID, and people were broadly dissatisfied with the status quo and the party in power, so they voted for the out party. Any political scientist would tell you that that is the most normal thing in the world. But of course Donald Trump is the least normal candidate imaginable, and given all of the as he would say, huge baggage that he's bringing into this race and now into the White House. I think a lot of Democrats, including me, thought this time would be different, but it wasn't.

Do you think that a lot of pundits and political experts such as yourself, Brian, thought that again his lunacy would outweigh people's pain at the pump and the grocery store, etc.

Do you think that a lot of pundits and political experts such as yourself, Brian, thought that again his lunacy would outweigh people's pain at the pump and the grocery store, etc.

Well, we thought a couple of things. We thought the load was just too much for voters to bear at a certain point, the load of Trump right, all his problems. You know. We saw a version of this in North Carolina, where people wanted to vote for change. The state voted Republican for president, and yet they elected the Democrat Josh Stein as governor by a pretty big margin, because.

Well, we thought a couple of things. We thought the load was just too much for voters to bear at a certain point, the load of Trump right, all his problems. You know. We saw a version of this in North Carolina, where people wanted to vote for change. The state voted Republican for president, and yet they elected the Democrat Josh Stein as governor by a pretty big margin, because.

Well, fairness that his opponent was insane. If Mark Robinson, if hadn't been revealed that he was called himself a black hitler and liked to watch transgender people have sex, you know that was part of his choice in pornography.

Well, fairness that his opponent was insane. If Mark Robinson, if hadn't been revealed that he was called himself a black hitler and liked to watch transgender people have sex, you know that was part of his choice in pornography.

Well, that's just an example of the load is too much to bear. So the load was too much for voters to bear with Mark Robinson. I think democrats thought, just as Mark Robinson was ultimately rendered unelectable based on his problems, Donald Trump would be rendered unelectable based on his problems. And yeah, he didn't call himself a black Nazi, but he did try to overturn a free and fair election and instigate a violent insurrection. So you know, Potato Patado.

Well, that's just an example of the load is too much to bear. So the load was too much for voters to bear with Mark Robinson. I think democrats thought, just as Mark Robinson was ultimately rendered unelectable based on his problems, Donald Trump would be rendered unelectable based on his problems. And yeah, he didn't call himself a black Nazi, but he did try to overturn a free and fair election and instigate a violent insurrection. So you know, Potato Patado.

Well he's done a lot more than just that massive thing. I mean, if you just look at the last ten days of the campaign, and we've talked about this Brian, it seemed he was making no effort, as Maureen Dowd wrote her Nerd column, to expand his base, to widen the net, to get any voter he could, and he just drilled down on this sort of obnoxious browie. I can say anything and there are no repercussions unhinged kind of weird behavior from Philating. I never knew that was the verb. By the way, I learned something this week filating a microphone and you know, making all these disgusting, gross comments called, you know.

Well he's done a lot more than just that massive thing. I mean, if you just look at the last ten days of the campaign, and we've talked about this Brian, it seemed he was making no effort, as Maureen Dowd wrote her Nerd column, to expand his base, to widen the net, to get any voter he could, and he just drilled down on this sort of obnoxious browie. I can say anything and there are no repercussions unhinged kind of weird behavior from Philating. I never knew that was the verb. By the way, I learned something this week filating a microphone and you know, making all these disgusting, gross comments called, you know.

Russ should be shot, saying that his opponent should be arrested.

Russ should be shot, saying that his opponent should be arrested.

Yeah, you know, Nancy Pelosi is a bitch, Kamala is trash, you know, et cetera, et cetera.

Yeah, you know, Nancy Pelosi is a bitch, Kamala is trash, you know, et cetera, et cetera.

Yeah, and more seriously, you know, promising all sorts of illegal actions as president. And so you know, to step back to answer your question. Yeah, we thought, despite broad dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, that Harris had run a pretty good campaign. She tried to position herself as a change candidate. She closed some of the gap, a lot of the gap on handling the economy, and that, just as in twenty twenty two, Democrats would overperform because of the Trump factor. And what I think we know pretty definitively now is that Trump is a unique political animal who is kind of untouchable to his supporters no matter what he says or does, and brings out a pretty big coalition to the polls no matter what. Now, his coalition this time is actually pretty different than his coalition in twenty sixteen. And we'll get into all of that, But to your original point, it was a broad based victory in the Swing States. It was a series of narrow victories, consistent victories across the Swing States. But he wasn't winning the Swing States by five or ten points. He was winning them by one or two points. He had bigger gains in places where the campaign wasn't actually being fought between Harris and Trump on the airwaves, but the whole country did seem to move in his direction.

Yeah, and more seriously, you know, promising all sorts of illegal actions as president. And so you know, to step back to answer your question. Yeah, we thought, despite broad dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, that Harris had run a pretty good campaign. She tried to position herself as a change candidate. She closed some of the gap, a lot of the gap on handling the economy, and that, just as in twenty twenty two, Democrats would overperform because of the Trump factor. And what I think we know pretty definitively now is that Trump is a unique political animal who is kind of untouchable to his supporters no matter what he says or does, and brings out a pretty big coalition to the polls no matter what. Now, his coalition this time is actually pretty different than his coalition in twenty sixteen. And we'll get into all of that, But to your original point, it was a broad based victory in the Swing States. It was a series of narrow victories, consistent victories across the Swing States. But he wasn't winning the Swing States by five or ten points. He was winning them by one or two points. He had bigger gains in places where the campaign wasn't actually being fought between Harris and Trump on the airwaves, but the whole country did seem to move in his direction.

There is so much to unpack, Brian. Let's talk about the constituencies that came out and supported Donald Trump. He did surprisingly well or better. I guess it's all relative, and you can put this into context for us with a lot of groups. Let's first talk about black voters, black women. I think ninety percent came out for Kamala Harris. Is that correct?

There is so much to unpack, Brian. Let's talk about the constituencies that came out and supported Donald Trump. He did surprisingly well or better. I guess it's all relative, and you can put this into context for us with a lot of groups. Let's first talk about black voters, black women. I think ninety percent came out for Kamala Harris. Is that correct?

Yeah, about ninety percent, maybe eighty nine or eighty eight, but pretty close to that.

Yeah, about ninety percent, maybe eighty nine or eighty eight, but pretty close to that.

And that held steady correct for Joe Biden.

And that held steady correct for Joe Biden.

Well, we saw a pretty significant deterioration among black men. And I should just say at the outset that this data is a little bit early. It still needs to cook for a couple of days, a couple of weeks. These numbers will change a bit. But directionally, we're talking about stuff based on the exit polling that is conducted, you know, right after the election. So to answer your question, black men, Harris probably only won them by about fifty six points. Clinton won them in twenty sixteen by sixty nine points. Biden won them by about sixty points, So you can see the line going down a little bit. Black women, there was some deterioration too. Clinton won them by ninety points, a nine zero point margin, went down to eighty one points under Biden, went back up a little bit for Harris, another black woman, that makes sense, to an eighty four point margin. But the significant deterioration was among black men. And where I'm sure you're going next, Latino men.

Well, we saw a pretty significant deterioration among black men. And I should just say at the outset that this data is a little bit early. It still needs to cook for a couple of days, a couple of weeks. These numbers will change a bit. But directionally, we're talking about stuff based on the exit polling that is conducted, you know, right after the election. So to answer your question, black men, Harris probably only won them by about fifty six points. Clinton won them in twenty sixteen by sixty nine points. Biden won them by about sixty points, So you can see the line going down a little bit. Black women, there was some deterioration too. Clinton won them by ninety points, a nine zero point margin, went down to eighty one points under Biden, went back up a little bit for Harris, another black woman, that makes sense, to an eighty four point margin. But the significant deterioration was among black men. And where I'm sure you're going next, Latino men.

Well, let's talk about Latino men and compare what they did in twenty twenty versus twenty twenty four.

Well, let's talk about Latino men and compare what they did in twenty twenty versus twenty twenty four.

Well, this is huge, This is a historic realignment of Latino voters. I think political scientus and historians are going to be talking about this for a long time because what's happening, and it's consistent with the sort of the broader story of America. As immigrant groups settle here, have children, have grandchildren, they assimilate, and the second generation, in the third generation start to vote like white people. And so you are seeing non college educated Latinos begin to vote like non college educated white voters. And that is bad news for Democrats because non college educated white people are at the core of the Trump coalition. So let's go back to twenty sixteen again. The first time Trump was on the ballot, Hillary Clinton won Latino men by thirty one points. Then Joe Biden won Latino men by a little bit less, by twenty three points. What happened this year, Donald Trump won Latino men probably by about a dozen points. That is like a thirty five point swing in four years. And we can talk about some of the factors that might have gone into that, but it's just stunning. And yes, her advantage among Latina women narrowed as well, to about half of Biden's margin from four years ago.

Well, this is huge, This is a historic realignment of Latino voters. I think political scientus and historians are going to be talking about this for a long time because what's happening, and it's consistent with the sort of the broader story of America. As immigrant groups settle here, have children, have grandchildren, they assimilate, and the second generation, in the third generation start to vote like white people. And so you are seeing non college educated Latinos begin to vote like non college educated white voters. And that is bad news for Democrats because non college educated white people are at the core of the Trump coalition. So let's go back to twenty sixteen again. The first time Trump was on the ballot, Hillary Clinton won Latino men by thirty one points. Then Joe Biden won Latino men by a little bit less, by twenty three points. What happened this year, Donald Trump won Latino men probably by about a dozen points. That is like a thirty five point swing in four years. And we can talk about some of the factors that might have gone into that, but it's just stunning. And yes, her advantage among Latina women narrowed as well, to about half of Biden's margin from four years ago.

So as you say, that's a significant shift that's going to be studied by historians, but it's not just a generational explanation or assimilation. Are there other reasons for this gravitational pull that Latinos had and Latina's had toward Donald Trump.

So as you say, that's a significant shift that's going to be studied by historians, but it's not just a generational explanation or assimilation. Are there other reasons for this gravitational pull that Latinos had and Latina's had toward Donald Trump.

We're moving toward educational stratification is the fancy term, but sort of sorting in our politics where we have one coalition for the college educated and another coalition for working class voters who don't have a college degree. That is the single best way to figure out today whether someone's going to vote for a day Democrat or Republican. Do they have a college or an advanced degree. The vast majority of Latinos do not. They are increasingly starting to vote based on cultural and economic factors more like other voters without a college degree, and I think Trump really hammered home a number of messages that resonated with that group. They feel the pain of higher grocery costs, higher gas prices like other working class people do, because they're living paycheck to paycheck, and it's not just an inconvenience, it's a disaster in their lives when those costs go up so substantially. And on cultural issues, they've always been more culturally conservative despite voting heavily Democratic, and so you know, on issues like transgender care, which the Trump campaign just hammered for the last two months, they sided with the Republicans.

We're moving toward educational stratification is the fancy term, but sort of sorting in our politics where we have one coalition for the college educated and another coalition for working class voters who don't have a college degree. That is the single best way to figure out today whether someone's going to vote for a day Democrat or Republican. Do they have a college or an advanced degree. The vast majority of Latinos do not. They are increasingly starting to vote based on cultural and economic factors more like other voters without a college degree, and I think Trump really hammered home a number of messages that resonated with that group. They feel the pain of higher grocery costs, higher gas prices like other working class people do, because they're living paycheck to paycheck, and it's not just an inconvenience, it's a disaster in their lives when those costs go up so substantially. And on cultural issues, they've always been more culturally conservative despite voting heavily Democratic, and so you know, on issues like transgender care, which the Trump campaign just hammered for the last two months, they sided with the Republicans.

Well, let's talk about college educated Latinos. When you look at that group, I don't know if you have numbers for them, but does it change dramatically and does that college education mitigate some of the cultural issues that make them tend to be more conservative.

Well, let's talk about college educated Latinos. When you look at that group, I don't know if you have numbers for them, but does it change dramatically and does that college education mitigate some of the cultural issues that make them tend to be more conservative.

So it's interesting what the exit poll provides is voters of color, black and brown with a college degree versus without, and that the difference is really striking. Harris won voters of color who are college graduates by thirty three points.

So it's interesting what the exit poll provides is voters of color, black and brown with a college degree versus without, and that the difference is really striking. Harris won voters of color who are college graduates by thirty three points.

Wow.

Wow.

Voters of color with no degree, she won by a narrower margin, by like twenty nine or thirty points, But that's largely because you have, you know, black voters in there. I think AAPI is included in there. I wish they broke out just the Latinos because I think you would see, you know, you would see a pretty dramatic difference.

Voters of color with no degree, she won by a narrower margin, by like twenty nine or thirty points, But that's largely because you have, you know, black voters in there. I think AAPI is included in there. I wish they broke out just the Latinos because I think you would see, you know, you would see a pretty dramatic difference.

Let's talk about white women. Hillary Clinton did not win the election. One might argue, I'm wrong about this, Brian in twenty sixteen because the majority of white women voted for Donald Trump.

Let's talk about white women. Hillary Clinton did not win the election. One might argue, I'm wrong about this, Brian in twenty sixteen because the majority of white women voted for Donald Trump.

Well, you're right about that, but white women writ large have always been a Republican constituency. They voted for Romney, of Robama, for McCain of Robama, et cetera. People thought, because Hillary was a white woman, she would narrow that gap a little bit more.

Well, you're right about that, but white women writ large have always been a Republican constituency. They voted for Romney, of Robama, for McCain of Robama, et cetera. People thought, because Hillary was a white woman, she would narrow that gap a little bit more.

But did she.

But did she.

No, she didn't. She basically landed where, you know, where Biden did, and that was a you know, that was a significant problem. But again you'll see a huge education gap. I mean, one of the few areas, maybe the only area where Harris grew Democratic support compared to sixteen and twenty is among white women with a college degree. White women with a college degree were like Kamala Harris's base. She won them by sixteen points compared to Biden winning them by nine Hillary winning them by about that margin. But among white women out a degree, zero improvement. Despite Harris being you know, only the second woman to be nominated for president, she basically performed the same among that group as Biden did four years ago and as Hillary did eight years ago.

No, she didn't. She basically landed where, you know, where Biden did, and that was a you know, that was a significant problem. But again you'll see a huge education gap. I mean, one of the few areas, maybe the only area where Harris grew Democratic support compared to sixteen and twenty is among white women with a college degree. White women with a college degree were like Kamala Harris's base. She won them by sixteen points compared to Biden winning them by nine Hillary winning them by about that margin. But among white women out a degree, zero improvement. Despite Harris being you know, only the second woman to be nominated for president, she basically performed the same among that group as Biden did four years ago and as Hillary did eight years ago.

When it comes to white women with a college degree, if rove Way had not been overturned, do you think she would have fared as well with that demographic.

When it comes to white women with a college degree, if rove Way had not been overturned, do you think she would have fared as well with that demographic.

No, I think Dobbs was a clearly a factor powering overperformance among that group, which is strongly pro choice. I think that improved her standing among men with a college degree as well, but it just wasn't enough. You know, you have states like Florida where there was an abortion referendum on the ballot. Fifty seven percent of Floridians voted the pro choice position and Harris got just shell act in Florida, So a lot of voters, I think was twenty eight percent of pro choice voters according to the exit polling we have voted for Trump. So clearly that was just not the most important issue to them.

No, I think Dobbs was a clearly a factor powering overperformance among that group, which is strongly pro choice. I think that improved her standing among men with a college degree as well, but it just wasn't enough. You know, you have states like Florida where there was an abortion referendum on the ballot. Fifty seven percent of Floridians voted the pro choice position and Harris got just shell act in Florida, So a lot of voters, I think was twenty eight percent of pro choice voters according to the exit polling we have voted for Trump. So clearly that was just not the most important issue to them.

Let's talk about young people because I read an article before we hopped on about gen Z not really coming out for Kamala Harris. Do you have any numbers about young voters and what they ended up doing well.

Let's talk about young people because I read an article before we hopped on about gen Z not really coming out for Kamala Harris. Do you have any numbers about young voters and what they ended up doing well.

There are two ways of looking at these groups. There's the turnout that is how many people were actually showing up to vote, and there's the share that is what percentage of the voters who do turn out of somebody getting And the turnout was clearly not as big as what Democrats were hoping for and expecting. They thought that Trump would drive historic turnout and that doesn't seem to have happened. And then secondly, Harris performed substantially worse than Joe Biden did and worse than Hillary Clinton did among a teen to twenty nine year olds. She probably only won them by about ten or eleven points. Biden won them by twenty four points four years ago. Hillary won them by almost twenty points eight years ago. She made up for that to a degree by overperforming among seniors. There was probably a tie among senior citizens, whereas Trump won voters over sixty five in both sixteen and twenty, but the change just wasn't nearly as dramatic.

There are two ways of looking at these groups. There's the turnout that is how many people were actually showing up to vote, and there's the share that is what percentage of the voters who do turn out of somebody getting And the turnout was clearly not as big as what Democrats were hoping for and expecting. They thought that Trump would drive historic turnout and that doesn't seem to have happened. And then secondly, Harris performed substantially worse than Joe Biden did and worse than Hillary Clinton did among a teen to twenty nine year olds. She probably only won them by about ten or eleven points. Biden won them by twenty four points four years ago. Hillary won them by almost twenty points eight years ago. She made up for that to a degree by overperforming among seniors. There was probably a tie among senior citizens, whereas Trump won voters over sixty five in both sixteen and twenty, but the change just wasn't nearly as dramatic.

This is what Peter Hanby wrote in Puck Kamala's Wasted Youth. Sure, young white dudes broke for Trump, but Harris also underperformed with almost every kind of young person, young white women, young black voters, and young Latinos.

This is what Peter Hanby wrote in Puck Kamala's Wasted Youth. Sure, young white dudes broke for Trump, but Harris also underperformed with almost every kind of young person, young white women, young black voters, and young Latinos.

Why well, we're going to be sorting through that for a while. I would say a couple of things. One, if you're a young person, you're just starting out economically. The majority of young people in the country still do not have college degrees, and so so they feel stressed and burdened by higher costs. They're saddled with more student debt. And even though Joe Biden did a lot of stuff around student debt. I don't think they felt like their economic pain was substantially alleviated. There may have been some backlash to Israel Gaza, although we can talk about that a little more. I'm still skeptical that that was a high priority for a lot of voters. And I also think there wasn't like a clear agenda that Harris was presenting to them about how young people's lives were going to get better and how her administration would represent a change versus the last four years the Biden administration.

Why well, we're going to be sorting through that for a while. I would say a couple of things. One, if you're a young person, you're just starting out economically. The majority of young people in the country still do not have college degrees, and so so they feel stressed and burdened by higher costs. They're saddled with more student debt. And even though Joe Biden did a lot of stuff around student debt. I don't think they felt like their economic pain was substantially alleviated. There may have been some backlash to Israel Gaza, although we can talk about that a little more. I'm still skeptical that that was a high priority for a lot of voters. And I also think there wasn't like a clear agenda that Harris was presenting to them about how young people's lives were going to get better and how her administration would represent a change versus the last four years the Biden administration.

We have a lot to unpack and just that answer, but just staying with young people, Biden won eighteen to twenty nine year olds by a massive twenty five point margin. She won them only by thirteen points, so that's a significant drop.

We have a lot to unpack and just that answer, but just staying with young people, Biden won eighteen to twenty nine year olds by a massive twenty five point margin. She won them only by thirteen points, so that's a significant drop.

That margin was cut in half.

That margin was cut in half.

If you want to get smarter every morning with a breakdown of the news and fascinating takes on health and wellness and pop culture, sign up for our daily newsletter wake Up Call by going to Katiecuric dot com. Let's talk about the Middle East, And as you said, I think the economy in most polls was the top priority for young people, but Obviously, we had a lot of controversy following the attack on Israel of October seventh, with protests on college campuses as the war continued, people protesting the number of civilian casualties and deaths in Gaza. How did Kamala Harris do navigating that? Because I feel like she tried to express her support of Israel but also her sympathy to the people in Gaza, and it turns out, it seems to me, Brian, she pissed both groups off. There was that abandon Harris campaign in Michigan. I'm not sure how significant that ended up being in the vote. I want to talk to you about that and then, and maybe it's because I live in New York and follow a lot of Jewish people on Instagram, and you know many Jewish people, and if you're Jewish, so you probably talked to people who felt this way supported Trump because they felt he would be better for Israel, and they became single issue voters on that. So how much did this trying to please everyone in a way hurt Kamala Harris in your view?

If you want to get smarter every morning with a breakdown of the news and fascinating takes on health and wellness and pop culture, sign up for our daily newsletter wake Up Call by going to Katiecuric dot com. Let's talk about the Middle East, And as you said, I think the economy in most polls was the top priority for young people, but Obviously, we had a lot of controversy following the attack on Israel of October seventh, with protests on college campuses as the war continued, people protesting the number of civilian casualties and deaths in Gaza. How did Kamala Harris do navigating that? Because I feel like she tried to express her support of Israel but also her sympathy to the people in Gaza, and it turns out, it seems to me, Brian, she pissed both groups off. There was that abandon Harris campaign in Michigan. I'm not sure how significant that ended up being in the vote. I want to talk to you about that and then, and maybe it's because I live in New York and follow a lot of Jewish people on Instagram, and you know many Jewish people, and if you're Jewish, so you probably talked to people who felt this way supported Trump because they felt he would be better for Israel, and they became single issue voters on that. So how much did this trying to please everyone in a way hurt Kamala Harris in your view?

Well, first of all, I think she was probably expressing what her real position is. You know, for twenty years. Kamala Harris has been a pretty stalwart ally of Israel and Jewish Americans. Her relationship with Jews in the Bay Area goes back decades. She actually took her Jewish husband on his first trip to Israel after she became a senator. So I think that's real. And I also think that the Biden Harris administration had real issues with the way that Biebe was prosecuting the war and not developing a clear goal and an endgame. That said, I don't think it was a top concern for a large number of voters. The polling was pretty consistent about this. There were a lot of people who were very loud on social media on one side or the other. I think in New York, which is home to the largest Jewish community in the United States, there was clearly deterioration of Harris's position versus Biden four years ago or Clinton eight years ago.

Well, first of all, I think she was probably expressing what her real position is. You know, for twenty years. Kamala Harris has been a pretty stalwart ally of Israel and Jewish Americans. Her relationship with Jews in the Bay Area goes back decades. She actually took her Jewish husband on his first trip to Israel after she became a senator. So I think that's real. And I also think that the Biden Harris administration had real issues with the way that Biebe was prosecuting the war and not developing a clear goal and an endgame. That said, I don't think it was a top concern for a large number of voters. The polling was pretty consistent about this. There were a lot of people who were very loud on social media on one side or the other. I think in New York, which is home to the largest Jewish community in the United States, there was clearly deterioration of Harris's position versus Biden four years ago or Clinton eight years ago.

In New York City.

In New York City.

In New York State, Yeah, New York City and Long Island and and throughout the state. New York City in the suburbs primarily, which is where Jews tend to live, But we don't see evidence of that yet. Nationally, in Pennsylvania, for example, which has a very substantial Jewish community. She seems to have performed about as well as Joe Biden did four years ago. So maybe in the New York media market, the New York echo chamber, this was a bigger deal than it was in California or Pennsylvania, for example. And it's interesting. In the exit polling, they asked the question, is US support for Israel too strong, not strong enough, or about right? Well, sixty one percent of voters thought it was not strong enough or about right. Only thirty one percent, less than a third thought American support for Israel was too strong, and Harris actually won that group by like two to one, By more than two to one. We did see clearly in Michigan in Dearborn, some pockets in certain precincts of Jill Stein's support and a collapse in Harris's support. I don't think it was enough to have made the difference statewide. I also think it's notable that Alyssa Slotkin, who is a pro Israel Jewish woman, was elected to the Senate from Michigan on the same day and the same election when Kamala Harris lost. So if that was the driving issue they wouldn't have voted for Slotkin either, So I'm a little skeptical.

In New York State, Yeah, New York City and Long Island and and throughout the state. New York City in the suburbs primarily, which is where Jews tend to live, But we don't see evidence of that yet. Nationally, in Pennsylvania, for example, which has a very substantial Jewish community. She seems to have performed about as well as Joe Biden did four years ago. So maybe in the New York media market, the New York echo chamber, this was a bigger deal than it was in California or Pennsylvania, for example. And it's interesting. In the exit polling, they asked the question, is US support for Israel too strong, not strong enough, or about right? Well, sixty one percent of voters thought it was not strong enough or about right. Only thirty one percent, less than a third thought American support for Israel was too strong, and Harris actually won that group by like two to one, By more than two to one. We did see clearly in Michigan in Dearborn, some pockets in certain precincts of Jill Stein's support and a collapse in Harris's support. I don't think it was enough to have made the difference statewide. I also think it's notable that Alyssa Slotkin, who is a pro Israel Jewish woman, was elected to the Senate from Michigan on the same day and the same election when Kamala Harris lost. So if that was the driving issue they wouldn't have voted for Slotkin either, So I'm a little skeptical.

Well, did they vote for Slotkin and Dearborn? No?

Well, did they vote for Slotkin and Dearborn? No?

But it was clearly not enough to deprive her of a victory. There were enough Trump Slotkin voters that she was able to overcome that.

But it was clearly not enough to deprive her of a victory. There were enough Trump Slotkin voters that she was able to overcome that.

I want to ask you about the polls. You and I seemed to talk about the polls every election. Were they accurate? This time?

I want to ask you about the polls. You and I seemed to talk about the polls every election. Were they accurate? This time?

They look pretty accurate, although misleading, which sounds like a contradictory answer. And let me unpack it slightly. What the polls essentially showed in the seven battlegrounds. Again, I don't really care about national polling because this election is fought in seven states, and it's about the electoral college, it's not about the national popular vote. So the best polling was of these seven states, and essentially what it showed was a tie in almost all of these states. And the thing that people often forget about polling is the margin of error applies to each number, not to the margin between the two numbers. So if you see a poll that's one candidate at fifty another candidate at forty eight, with a margin of plus or minus three, you know that means the spread could be fifty three forty five and it would still be statistically the same poll that you're seeing. And so people overread polling, people ascribed polling powers and precision that it doesn't have. And it is also the historical pattern that in the end, presidential elections tend to move one way or the other. That sounds like a very obvious statement, but that is to say, it is very rare that you would have of the seven battlegrounds three going one way, four going the other. It's usually like six to one, seven to zero, because the voters are similar and the undecided usually break kind of in one direction. And that's what we saw here. We saw a pattern of consistent but narrow Trump wins in the battlegrounds. And so, you know, people don't like in Wisconsin right now it's a you know, it's a less than one point Trump win. In Michigan right now, it's a one point and change Trump win. In Pennsylvania it's a one point you know. So these are tiny margins. So you can't say the polling was wrong because this was well within the range of what the polling was showing.

They look pretty accurate, although misleading, which sounds like a contradictory answer. And let me unpack it slightly. What the polls essentially showed in the seven battlegrounds. Again, I don't really care about national polling because this election is fought in seven states, and it's about the electoral college, it's not about the national popular vote. So the best polling was of these seven states, and essentially what it showed was a tie in almost all of these states. And the thing that people often forget about polling is the margin of error applies to each number, not to the margin between the two numbers. So if you see a poll that's one candidate at fifty another candidate at forty eight, with a margin of plus or minus three, you know that means the spread could be fifty three forty five and it would still be statistically the same poll that you're seeing. And so people overread polling, people ascribed polling powers and precision that it doesn't have. And it is also the historical pattern that in the end, presidential elections tend to move one way or the other. That sounds like a very obvious statement, but that is to say, it is very rare that you would have of the seven battlegrounds three going one way, four going the other. It's usually like six to one, seven to zero, because the voters are similar and the undecided usually break kind of in one direction. And that's what we saw here. We saw a pattern of consistent but narrow Trump wins in the battlegrounds. And so, you know, people don't like in Wisconsin right now it's a you know, it's a less than one point Trump win. In Michigan right now, it's a one point and change Trump win. In Pennsylvania it's a one point you know. So these are tiny margins. So you can't say the polling was wrong because this was well within the range of what the polling was showing.

There has been a ton of Monday morning, Wednesday morning quarterbacking, and everyone is now setting their sights on the Democratic Party and on the way Kamala Harris ran the campaign. Let's talk about the campaign first, and then we'll talk about the larger Democratic Party. If you were giving Kamala Harris feedback or the campaign feedback, what would you tell them they could have done better or differently?

There has been a ton of Monday morning, Wednesday morning quarterbacking, and everyone is now setting their sights on the Democratic Party and on the way Kamala Harris ran the campaign. Let's talk about the campaign first, and then we'll talk about the larger Democratic Party. If you were giving Kamala Harris feedback or the campaign feedback, what would you tell them they could have done better or differently?

Well, you know, we're all geniuses in retrospect. And there's a famous JFK story. Right after he won super narrowly in nineteen sixty, Time magazine called him and his advisors chorus skatingly brilliant. I've never heard the word chorus skatingly, Katie. You're kind of a vocab nerd, so you probably have.

Well, you know, we're all geniuses in retrospect. And there's a famous JFK story. Right after he won super narrowly in nineteen sixty, Time magazine called him and his advisors chorus skatingly brilliant. I've never heard the word chorus skatingly, Katie. You're kind of a vocab nerd, so you probably have.

I've never heard of it.

I've never heard of it.

Yeah, I should look it up. I did years ago. And I think it just means like resoundingly impressively something like that. And I'm allowed to swear on this podcast, aren't I?

Yeah, I should look it up. I did years ago. And I think it just means like resoundingly impressively something like that. And I'm allowed to swear on this podcast, aren't I?

Yes, you are?

Yes, you are?

Brian Okay. Well, apparently what JFK said upon reading the article is he looked up, he smirked, and he said, a couple of votes in the other direction in Texas and Florida, and we'd have all been coruscatingly fucking stupid. And you know, I think there's something to that. You're a genius when you win and you're an idiot when you lose. And that having been said, I think the macro thing that the Harris campaign missed was broad dissatisfaction with Biden and the direction of the country. And she never broke from him. She had that horrible moment on the view that played in a thousand Trump commercials about she couldn't think of a thing she'd have done differently, and so she seemed in the end like more of the same. And Trump, for all of his flaws, was the asshole who brought you lower gas and grocery prices, and the change candidate exactly, and the candidate of change. And so if you were to rerun the Harris campaign and just based on what happened, which was Biden dropping out in July and Harris becoming the nominee at that point because there was really no time for a process and she was the sitting vice president and so it couldn't really go to anybody else. She needed to do a couple of things, One more definitively break from the policies and the record of the Biden administration a little tricky, since there's not like a huge historical record of Harris disagreeing with Biden about any of those policies, but at the very least signaling substantively, not just rhetorically, that the next four years would be quite different from the last four years, maybe criticizing Biden on something like waiting too long to lock down the border or waiting too long to pivot to fighting inflation. The second thing is I think she should have pushed off clearly against the far left of the Democratic Party. She never had a sort of Sister Soldia moment, as people described, you know, Bill Clinton standing up to Jesse Jackson or this one rap star in nineteen ninety two. She could have done that on some element of the agenda of the left. She could have said, you know what, I was wrong to say that there should be taxpayer funding of gender reassignment surgery, or I was wrong to have taken the position that I did on medicare for all or banning fracking, and I will never take that position as president. Instead, she sort of tried to thread the needle. She abandoned those positions through like statements that are campaign made, but she never explained why she abandoned those positions. They just looked like political expedients. And I think a lot of voters believe that in her heart of hearts, she was more of a kind of left wing Canada. And one thing we saw on the exit polling is among that critical group of voters in the middle who thought that both Harris and Trump were too extreme. Trump won those voters by a substantial margin. So she really needed to do more to push herself to the center.

Brian Okay. Well, apparently what JFK said upon reading the article is he looked up, he smirked, and he said, a couple of votes in the other direction in Texas and Florida, and we'd have all been coruscatingly fucking stupid. And you know, I think there's something to that. You're a genius when you win and you're an idiot when you lose. And that having been said, I think the macro thing that the Harris campaign missed was broad dissatisfaction with Biden and the direction of the country. And she never broke from him. She had that horrible moment on the view that played in a thousand Trump commercials about she couldn't think of a thing she'd have done differently, and so she seemed in the end like more of the same. And Trump, for all of his flaws, was the asshole who brought you lower gas and grocery prices, and the change candidate exactly, and the candidate of change. And so if you were to rerun the Harris campaign and just based on what happened, which was Biden dropping out in July and Harris becoming the nominee at that point because there was really no time for a process and she was the sitting vice president and so it couldn't really go to anybody else. She needed to do a couple of things, One more definitively break from the policies and the record of the Biden administration a little tricky, since there's not like a huge historical record of Harris disagreeing with Biden about any of those policies, but at the very least signaling substantively, not just rhetorically, that the next four years would be quite different from the last four years, maybe criticizing Biden on something like waiting too long to lock down the border or waiting too long to pivot to fighting inflation. The second thing is I think she should have pushed off clearly against the far left of the Democratic Party. She never had a sort of Sister Soldia moment, as people described, you know, Bill Clinton standing up to Jesse Jackson or this one rap star in nineteen ninety two. She could have done that on some element of the agenda of the left. She could have said, you know what, I was wrong to say that there should be taxpayer funding of gender reassignment surgery, or I was wrong to have taken the position that I did on medicare for all or banning fracking, and I will never take that position as president. Instead, she sort of tried to thread the needle. She abandoned those positions through like statements that are campaign made, but she never explained why she abandoned those positions. They just looked like political expedients. And I think a lot of voters believe that in her heart of hearts, she was more of a kind of left wing Canada. And one thing we saw on the exit polling is among that critical group of voters in the middle who thought that both Harris and Trump were too extreme. Trump won those voters by a substantial margin. So she really needed to do more to push herself to the center.

Why do you think she didn't And do you think she was afraid of alienating voters who still had a soft spot for Joe Biden and by the way, despite his unpopularity. I mean, I think she was legitimately proud of some of their accomplishments, you know, the Infrastructure Bill. I think she was probably proud of the Chips Act. They are very theoretical things that obviously you can't measure immediately. It's not like paying a lot more for eggs or yogurt than you did, you know, a year ago, and having to really kind of figure out your household budget. But there were some pretty impressive accomplishments, weren't there In the Biden administration. I feel like they are really getting beaten up, maybe unfairly or am I wrong? No?

Why do you think she didn't And do you think she was afraid of alienating voters who still had a soft spot for Joe Biden and by the way, despite his unpopularity. I mean, I think she was legitimately proud of some of their accomplishments, you know, the Infrastructure Bill. I think she was probably proud of the Chips Act. They are very theoretical things that obviously you can't measure immediately. It's not like paying a lot more for eggs or yogurt than you did, you know, a year ago, and having to really kind of figure out your household budget. But there were some pretty impressive accomplishments, weren't there In the Biden administration. I feel like they are really getting beaten up, maybe unfairly or am I wrong? No?

I think you're right that there were enormous legislative accomplishments. I'm just not sure voters really pay attention or care about those, you know, when the retrospective approval of the Trump administration is close to fifty and the current approval of the Biden administration is close to forty. And Trump essentially failed on everything as president except a big tax cut for big corporations and the wealthy. And Biden had the best sort of record of legislative success of any president since LBJ with infrastructure and the American Rescue Plan and the Chips Bill and the Electoral count Act and just one thing after another. He was like a magician dealing with a very closely divided Congress, getting things done, getting big things done. You know. I think a lot of the political strategy the White House was sort of based on the theory that we if we deliver a lot of legislation benefiting working class voters, they will reward us with their votes. And the problem was, yeah, the roads and bridges were getting rebuilt in town. I'm not sure people really credited Joe Biden for that, but every time they were driving on those roads to the gas station of the grocery store, they were punishing Joe Biden for that, and by extension, Kamala Harris. And so I think Harris did feel a deep sense of loyalty to Joe Biden. I think she does think he was a very good president. I also think, you know, like a lot of vice presidents, it's really awkward. You know, you start to say, okay, well, I disagreed with the president on X Y or Z. Is there a record of you disagreeing with the president on X Y or Z? Or are you just saying this out of expedience? Now? Are you pissing off constituencies within the coalition to try to reach for, you know, theoretical voters in the center. Does it seem disingenuous and kind of hurt you more than it helps you? I'm not sure. I think she could threaded the needle by just more definitively describing why and how the next four years would be different than the last four years. And it was just it was like generalities and nothing like clear.

I think you're right that there were enormous legislative accomplishments. I'm just not sure voters really pay attention or care about those, you know, when the retrospective approval of the Trump administration is close to fifty and the current approval of the Biden administration is close to forty. And Trump essentially failed on everything as president except a big tax cut for big corporations and the wealthy. And Biden had the best sort of record of legislative success of any president since LBJ with infrastructure and the American Rescue Plan and the Chips Bill and the Electoral count Act and just one thing after another. He was like a magician dealing with a very closely divided Congress, getting things done, getting big things done. You know. I think a lot of the political strategy the White House was sort of based on the theory that we if we deliver a lot of legislation benefiting working class voters, they will reward us with their votes. And the problem was, yeah, the roads and bridges were getting rebuilt in town. I'm not sure people really credited Joe Biden for that, but every time they were driving on those roads to the gas station of the grocery store, they were punishing Joe Biden for that, and by extension, Kamala Harris. And so I think Harris did feel a deep sense of loyalty to Joe Biden. I think she does think he was a very good president. I also think, you know, like a lot of vice presidents, it's really awkward. You know, you start to say, okay, well, I disagreed with the president on X Y or Z. Is there a record of you disagreeing with the president on X Y or Z? Or are you just saying this out of expedience? Now? Are you pissing off constituencies within the coalition to try to reach for, you know, theoretical voters in the center. Does it seem disingenuous and kind of hurt you more than it helps you? I'm not sure. I think she could threaded the needle by just more definitively describing why and how the next four years would be different than the last four years. And it was just it was like generalities and nothing like clear.

It was really strange to me and frustrating. And I've said this before on this podcast that she wasn't better at answering some of these questions, that she didn't seem to be able to communicate a clear, specific vision and she doesn't have to get in the weeds on policy, but you know, just one or two proposals, or as you said, saying, you know, I think we probably made some mistakes on immigration early in the administration, right, and I feel like she didn't take accountability for anything. And if she had admitted maybe some mistakes and things that she would like to do differently moving forward, as you say, she could have threaded the needle more effectively. And you know, couldn't David Pluff and Kamala Harris get together with Joe Biden and say, listen, we have to separate ourselves from you. Couldn't they have those kinds of conversations and kind of agree on some of those things or is that not possible.

It was really strange to me and frustrating. And I've said this before on this podcast that she wasn't better at answering some of these questions, that she didn't seem to be able to communicate a clear, specific vision and she doesn't have to get in the weeds on policy, but you know, just one or two proposals, or as you said, saying, you know, I think we probably made some mistakes on immigration early in the administration, right, and I feel like she didn't take accountability for anything. And if she had admitted maybe some mistakes and things that she would like to do differently moving forward, as you say, she could have threaded the needle more effectively. And you know, couldn't David Pluff and Kamala Harris get together with Joe Biden and say, listen, we have to separate ourselves from you. Couldn't they have those kinds of conversations and kind of agree on some of those things or is that not possible.

I'd like to think it would be possible. I'm not sure whether it's actually possible. Joe Biden is a very proud guy with a real chip on his shoulder, and I'm not sure he'd appreciate his own vice president pushing off against him. But you know, I think you sort of ask forgiveness, not permission. You got to win the election. That's your job. And if Biden's a little miffed, you know, maybe you kiss and make up at the meeting when you're president elect. And I just think it's also really kind of shortsighted conventional political advice that you never admit a mistake because it shows weakness. I actually think it shows strength when you admit a mistake. I think it breaks through because it doesn't look like typical politicians speak. So if Harris had said, you know, I think we got that wrong, or I think I was wrong on some of the positions I took in twenty nineteen, I learned, I grew, I got better.

I'd like to think it would be possible. I'm not sure whether it's actually possible. Joe Biden is a very proud guy with a real chip on his shoulder, and I'm not sure he'd appreciate his own vice president pushing off against him. But you know, I think you sort of ask forgiveness, not permission. You got to win the election. That's your job. And if Biden's a little miffed, you know, maybe you kiss and make up at the meeting when you're president elect. And I just think it's also really kind of shortsighted conventional political advice that you never admit a mistake because it shows weakness. I actually think it shows strength when you admit a mistake. I think it breaks through because it doesn't look like typical politicians speak. So if Harris had said, you know, I think we got that wrong, or I think I was wrong on some of the positions I took in twenty nineteen, I learned, I grew, I got better.

And also, I think you have to remember the moment we were in culturally right, or.

And also, I think you have to remember the moment we were in culturally right, or.

The moment we thought we were in in twenty nineteen. As it turns out, Joe Biden read the moment for voters a heck of a lot better than like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, and the editorial page of The New York Times did but yes, meaning explain meaning the conventional wisdom among like elites and journalists and people who live where you and I live in LA and New York City in twenty nineteen was we're in the middle of this cultural revolution and the country and the Democratic Party are moving dramatically to the left, and you've got to accommodate this. And you know, Kamala Harris heard that, and she responded by taking a whole series of like Bernie Sanders positions on a wide variety of issues. Joe Biden heard that and ignored it and thought that that was wrong and thought that that's not actually where his voters were. And Biden was right and Harris was wrong, and Biden, you know, resuscitated Harris's career after she completely flamed out. I mean, she dropped out of the Democratic contest before a single caucus or primary in twenty twenty. I remember I worked in that primary campaign for another candidate, and you know, she she'd started with such promise. She took a bunch of far left positions that didn't seem authentic to her, and she was kind of between a rock and a hard place with voters. Biden saved her political career, made her vice president. She adopted Biden's positions on just about every issue, which actually did seem more authentic because you know, here in California, Harris is not known as a far left politic by any strength. She's known as a kind of mainstream democrat who was a longtime prosecutor.

The moment we thought we were in in twenty nineteen. As it turns out, Joe Biden read the moment for voters a heck of a lot better than like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, and the editorial page of The New York Times did but yes, meaning explain meaning the conventional wisdom among like elites and journalists and people who live where you and I live in LA and New York City in twenty nineteen was we're in the middle of this cultural revolution and the country and the Democratic Party are moving dramatically to the left, and you've got to accommodate this. And you know, Kamala Harris heard that, and she responded by taking a whole series of like Bernie Sanders positions on a wide variety of issues. Joe Biden heard that and ignored it and thought that that was wrong and thought that that's not actually where his voters were. And Biden was right and Harris was wrong, and Biden, you know, resuscitated Harris's career after she completely flamed out. I mean, she dropped out of the Democratic contest before a single caucus or primary in twenty twenty. I remember I worked in that primary campaign for another candidate, and you know, she she'd started with such promise. She took a bunch of far left positions that didn't seem authentic to her, and she was kind of between a rock and a hard place with voters. Biden saved her political career, made her vice president. She adopted Biden's positions on just about every issue, which actually did seem more authentic because you know, here in California, Harris is not known as a far left politic by any strength. She's known as a kind of mainstream democrat who was a longtime prosecutor.

And a law and order and made people mad for minimum mandatory sentence singing stuff. Right.

And a law and order and made people mad for minimum mandatory sentence singing stuff. Right.

Well, yeah, there was a whole kind of series of left wing memes in twenty nineteen when she was running of Kamal as a cop. I mean, what she actually tried to do when she was Attorney General and DA of San Francisco was kind of create a third way that she called smart on crime, and without belaboring the point too much, it was not a far left plan. It was a kind of a center left reformist approach to criminal justice that was very authentic to who she was.

Well, yeah, there was a whole kind of series of left wing memes in twenty nineteen when she was running of Kamal as a cop. I mean, what she actually tried to do when she was Attorney General and DA of San Francisco was kind of create a third way that she called smart on crime, and without belaboring the point too much, it was not a far left plan. It was a kind of a center left reformist approach to criminal justice that was very authentic to who she was.

Do you think she emphasized abortion too much and not pocketbook issues enough.

Do you think she emphasized abortion too much and not pocketbook issues enough.

I don't know, which is an unsatisfying answer.

I don't know, which is an unsatisfying answer.

No, that's okay, It's honest.

No, that's okay, It's honest.

I'd like to see more data about the voters who were pro choice and voted for Trump. Any are the voters who voted for abortion referenda in various states but voted for Trump, maybe she should have talked about abortion more. That was clearly a big change that favored her. You know, she was like wrestling a bear on the economy. Immigration was a loser for her. Abortion was the one issue where she was clearly in the stronger position. And there's a part of me that thinks maybe she should have just hammered abortion every day.

I'd like to see more data about the voters who were pro choice and voted for Trump. Any are the voters who voted for abortion referenda in various states but voted for Trump, maybe she should have talked about abortion more. That was clearly a big change that favored her. You know, she was like wrestling a bear on the economy. Immigration was a loser for her. Abortion was the one issue where she was clearly in the stronger position. And there's a part of me that thinks maybe she should have just hammered abortion every day.

We'll see, because it didn't seem to be a top issue. I mean, again, you'll have to go through the data from these exit polls because I think the referenda in various states, I'm not sure what they'll tell. I mean, I'll leave it to that political brain of yours. Let me ask you about Joe Biden, though, I mean, there was a segment of the population pretty upset about Joe Biden kind of waiting till the last minute to drop out, and his so called to nablers in the White House not being honest about, you know, the fact that he was getting older and less capable to do this very demanding job. Susan Glasser Steve Schmidt basically were just railing against Joe Biden for letting his ego get in the way and for not stepping aside a year before, so there could have been a proper primary, so the Democratic Party would have been able to find the strongest candidate who was best equipped to beat Donald Trump. I don't know, how are you feeling about all that, Brian.

We'll see, because it didn't seem to be a top issue. I mean, again, you'll have to go through the data from these exit polls because I think the referenda in various states, I'm not sure what they'll tell. I mean, I'll leave it to that political brain of yours. Let me ask you about Joe Biden, though, I mean, there was a segment of the population pretty upset about Joe Biden kind of waiting till the last minute to drop out, and his so called to nablers in the White House not being honest about, you know, the fact that he was getting older and less capable to do this very demanding job. Susan Glasser Steve Schmidt basically were just railing against Joe Biden for letting his ego get in the way and for not stepping aside a year before, so there could have been a proper primary, so the Democratic Party would have been able to find the strongest candidate who was best equipped to beat Donald Trump. I don't know, how are you feeling about all that, Brian.

I agree with that. I'm mad at Joe Biden. He was very clear in twenty twenty that he was going to be a one term president. That's what it meant when he said he was just a bridge to the next generation. That's what it meant when he had that big event in Michigan at the end of the primaries in twenty twenty, with Whitmer and Corey Booker and Kamala and all these people standing behind him saying they're the future of the party. You're going to see a lot more them than you are of me. I'm just a bridge. Voters thought he was too old four years ago, but you know, they were willing to sort of go with it because he seemed sharp and he wasn't Donald Trump. It was just the height of ego folly, willful ignorance to think that an eighty one year old could get re elected as president of the United States to another four year term, especially when the decline was so clear and so obvious to everybody except to him. We verged into don't believe your lying eyes. And I do resent that the team around him apparently never had the cajones. As hard as this would be to go to the sitting president and say, look, I just don't think this is a good idea. Mister President. You've been a great president. I know you feel sharp today, but I just don't think this is going to work. And this is a gamble with the democracy, with the United States of America, with the Western Alliance that you cannot take.

I agree with that. I'm mad at Joe Biden. He was very clear in twenty twenty that he was going to be a one term president. That's what it meant when he said he was just a bridge to the next generation. That's what it meant when he had that big event in Michigan at the end of the primaries in twenty twenty, with Whitmer and Corey Booker and Kamala and all these people standing behind him saying they're the future of the party. You're going to see a lot more them than you are of me. I'm just a bridge. Voters thought he was too old four years ago, but you know, they were willing to sort of go with it because he seemed sharp and he wasn't Donald Trump. It was just the height of ego folly, willful ignorance to think that an eighty one year old could get re elected as president of the United States to another four year term, especially when the decline was so clear and so obvious to everybody except to him. We verged into don't believe your lying eyes. And I do resent that the team around him apparently never had the cajones. As hard as this would be to go to the sitting president and say, look, I just don't think this is a good idea. Mister President. You've been a great president. I know you feel sharp today, but I just don't think this is going to work. And this is a gamble with the democracy, with the United States of America, with the Western Alliance that you cannot take.

I know this is that could have, would have, should have. But if he had dropped out earlier and there had been a primary process, do you think we would have ended up with Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee.

I know this is that could have, would have, should have. But if he had dropped out earlier and there had been a primary process, do you think we would have ended up with Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee.

No, I don't because I think the question for primary voters, who are actually pretty pragmatic in the Democratic Party would have been the same as it was four years ago, which is who can beat Donald Trump? And I don't think she would have been the answer to that question. And it's not really her fault. I think it's more the fact that she was just you know, she's part of the Biden Harris administration. It was very clear the Biden Harris administration was just consistently congenitally unpopular. And so I think, you know, a Whitmer Warnock ticket, or a Shapiro Klobashar ticket, or a you know, boodhagige whatever to I mean, you would have had a lot of strong candidates running, all of whom would have represented change from the status quo and wouldn't have had the baggage on inflation and immigration that Harris did.

No, I don't because I think the question for primary voters, who are actually pretty pragmatic in the Democratic Party would have been the same as it was four years ago, which is who can beat Donald Trump? And I don't think she would have been the answer to that question. And it's not really her fault. I think it's more the fact that she was just you know, she's part of the Biden Harris administration. It was very clear the Biden Harris administration was just consistently congenitally unpopular. And so I think, you know, a Whitmer Warnock ticket, or a Shapiro Klobashar ticket, or a you know, boodhagige whatever to I mean, you would have had a lot of strong candidates running, all of whom would have represented change from the status quo and wouldn't have had the baggage on inflation and immigration that Harris did.

And also might that have given her time if she was competitive, to hone her message, to introduce herself to the public, to become more of a national figure, if she hadn't had to do a campaign over the course of one hundred and eight days or whatever.

And also might that have given her time if she was competitive, to hone her message, to introduce herself to the public, to become more of a national figure, if she hadn't had to do a campaign over the course of one hundred and eight days or whatever.

It was totally and it represents more dumb political conventional wisdom like don't admit a mistake, the oh, we can't have a primary that would be too divisive. Actually, when was the best democratic performance in modern times? Two thousand and eight, when we had this ferociously competitive primary that went all the way until June between Hillary and Obama, it made both of them dramatically better candidates. Obama emerged far stronger from that process. Than when he'd entered it. So you do need competition, and you do need to There's a huge difference between a theoretical candidate and a real candidate, and sometimes a real candidate needs some time to hone their act and get better. Obama was actually a pretty crappy candidate for the first three four months, maybe six months that he was running in two thousand and seven, and it was the process that made him dramatically better and made him find his message.

It was totally and it represents more dumb political conventional wisdom like don't admit a mistake, the oh, we can't have a primary that would be too divisive. Actually, when was the best democratic performance in modern times? Two thousand and eight, when we had this ferociously competitive primary that went all the way until June between Hillary and Obama, it made both of them dramatically better candidates. Obama emerged far stronger from that process. Than when he'd entered it. So you do need competition, and you do need to There's a huge difference between a theoretical candidate and a real candidate, and sometimes a real candidate needs some time to hone their act and get better. Obama was actually a pretty crappy candidate for the first three four months, maybe six months that he was running in two thousand and seven, and it was the process that made him dramatically better and made him find his message.

There's also some serious soul searching going on about the Democratic Party and if it's lost its way. As we've noted before, there's been a significant shift. It used to be the party of union blue collar workers, and that has really shifted over the last few decades, right, and now it does seem brian. It is the party of college educated, liberal coastal elites.

There's also some serious soul searching going on about the Democratic Party and if it's lost its way. As we've noted before, there's been a significant shift. It used to be the party of union blue collar workers, and that has really shifted over the last few decades, right, and now it does seem brian. It is the party of college educated, liberal coastal elites.

Yeah, it's the urban cosmopolitan party, and they're just not enough white, college educated coastal voters to win a presidential election. It reminds me of the story of Adlai Stevenson, who ran for president twice unsuccessfully, whom the Republicans derided as an egghead, and some voter came up to a mintern event and said, you know, everythinking American is for you, and Stevenson said, well, thank you, ma'am, but I need a majority. So I think, you know.

Yeah, it's the urban cosmopolitan party, and they're just not enough white, college educated coastal voters to win a presidential election. It reminds me of the story of Adlai Stevenson, who ran for president twice unsuccessfully, whom the Republicans derided as an egghead, and some voter came up to a mintern event and said, you know, everythinking American is for you, and Stevenson said, well, thank you, ma'am, but I need a majority. So I think, you know.

This is why I love you, Brian, because you know stories like this.

This is why I love you, Brian, because you know stories like this.

And I think, by the way, some of that disdain for working class people comes through among not from Joe Biden, not really even from Kamala Harris this time out, but from a lot of Democrats. And I think a lot of working class voters can see it, can smell it, and they don't like it.

And I think, by the way, some of that disdain for working class people comes through among not from Joe Biden, not really even from Kamala Harris this time out, but from a lot of Democrats. And I think a lot of working class voters can see it, can smell it, and they don't like it.

And I would say, I mean Joe Biden made that slip about garbage or trash, you know. The last week of the campaign, Mark Cuban said he never sees Donald Trump with intelligent women. You know. I think those are taken as real insults for people who feel dismissed and look down upon.

And I would say, I mean Joe Biden made that slip about garbage or trash, you know. The last week of the campaign, Mark Cuban said he never sees Donald Trump with intelligent women. You know. I think those are taken as real insults for people who feel dismissed and look down upon.

Yeah, and Donald Trump never insults any group of voters. They all feel very respected by him.

Yeah, and Donald Trump never insults any group of voters. They all feel very respected by him.

Well that's the mystery. You know. He is more Teflon than Teflon, and I still will never quite understand why he is never punished or held accountable for the horrible things he says. I think maybe people eat it up and they love that he says what they're thinking, and that he doesn't have a filter, and he is the antithesis of political correctness. And so I think that brings me to my next question about sort of woke culture. You know, I met Dasha Burns, who's this very good young reporter for NBC, and I had dinner with her a couple of I guess the night I was interviewing Nancy Pelosi at the ninety second Street Why and I asked her because she covered the Trump campaign. He told her if she had beautiful skin, because I said, your skin is so pretty? She said, funny, Donald Trump told me the same thing.

Well that's the mystery. You know. He is more Teflon than Teflon, and I still will never quite understand why he is never punished or held accountable for the horrible things he says. I think maybe people eat it up and they love that he says what they're thinking, and that he doesn't have a filter, and he is the antithesis of political correctness. And so I think that brings me to my next question about sort of woke culture. You know, I met Dasha Burns, who's this very good young reporter for NBC, and I had dinner with her a couple of I guess the night I was interviewing Nancy Pelosi at the ninety second Street Why and I asked her because she covered the Trump campaign. He told her if she had beautiful skin, because I said, your skin is so pretty? She said, funny, Donald Trump told me the same thing.

Must have. Yeah.

Must have. Yeah.

I was like, this is really weird. But anyway, you.

I was like, this is really weird. But anyway, you.

And Trump you really think very similarly about a lot of stuff.

And Trump you really think very similarly about a lot of stuff.

I said, we must have similar taste in women, right, So so anyway, I said, why do you think so many people are attracted to him? And she said, well, I think a little bit. It's lefty lecture culture. And I think that was obviously another way of talking to about woke culture, this kind of holier than thou self righteous. I am much more sensitive and aware and ocurant, you know, than you are, And I know all these terms, and I do my pronouns, and I do this, and I'm much more aware and sensitive and caring and educated than you are, right, which I think a lot of people felt that way, and I sort of thought that the pendulum had swung back a little on that was this sort of a woke hangover that was still in the ether that turned a lot of voters off.

I said, we must have similar taste in women, right, So so anyway, I said, why do you think so many people are attracted to him? And she said, well, I think a little bit. It's lefty lecture culture. And I think that was obviously another way of talking to about woke culture, this kind of holier than thou self righteous. I am much more sensitive and aware and ocurant, you know, than you are, And I know all these terms, and I do my pronouns, and I do this, and I'm much more aware and sensitive and caring and educated than you are, right, which I think a lot of people felt that way, and I sort of thought that the pendulum had swung back a little on that was this sort of a woke hangover that was still in the ether that turned a lot of voters off.

Maybe. I mean, I don't think Harris ran a woke campaign this time at.

Maybe. I mean, I don't think Harris ran a woke campaign this time at.

All, No, but I think they associate it with Democrats, you know, even if she didn't do that.

All, No, but I think they associate it with Democrats, you know, even if she didn't do that.

Well, and there's a lot of video of her saying a lot of crazy shit from twenty nineteen, back when that was okorant and when people were using French as you know, the language of world diplomacy and you know, communicating coastal elites. But I think there's a there's a healthy part of this, and there's an unhealthy part of this. The healthy part of this is we shouldn't get to a point where, you know, everything is like pointing fingers and assigning blame and just because you're not kind of one hundred percent jibing with the latest and greatest way of describing diversity, that means you're a bad person that that kind of you know, twenty nineteen, twenty twenty culture was terrible and exclusionary and pushed a lot of good people away from, you know, the Democratic Coalition. The unhealthy part is, I do think Trump is a racist and a bigot, and I think, you know, he's not only sort of a giant middle finger to the establishment in Washington and institutions that have let people down. He exposes or draws out the sort of the unhealthy, the inner id of a lot of people. You know, I think the job of a leader is really to bring out the best in other people, and he really brings out the worst in a lot of other people. You know. You see the behavior of a lot of his supporters at these rallies before and after, the way that they're engaging with other people online, and it's just very nasty and very toxic. And so I hope that you know, the pendulum doesn't swing so far in the anti woke direction that we go back to racism, sexism. I know that's not what you were saying, but like, we do have a tendency as a country to sort of overreact, and I think, you know, it is going to be fascinating that, Like, I think it's one in four Latinos in America have at least one undocumented family member. So if some of these like Latino men who voted for Trump to to you know, stick it to woe culture, you know, all of a sudden have their abuela deported because of the guy that they voted for, that's going to seem like a bigger problem than what pronoun you use.