Hi everyone, I'm Katie Curic and this is next Question. We're only a few weeks out from the mid terms and there is a lot to unpack. It seems like there's a new story every day about some race or another. So I've brought on some of my favorite political experts to help us all better understand what's at stake, what are the races to watch, and what this all means for My guest today are media and political strategists and my former podcasting co host, Brian Goldsmith. I tried to get Katie to think about running for office. I I seriously did. She won't. She won't consider it, sadly for me, as well as Liz Smith, a twenty year veteran of Democratic political campaigns from Barack Obama to Peep Buddha j Edge. She also has a new memoir out called Any Given Tuesday, a Political Love Story, and she has that same feral magnetism tour that Donald Trump does. And Republican political consultant and host along with David axel Rod of the political podcast Hacks on Tap Mike Murphy, Oh, I've been freaked up for a decade about American politics. Let's dive in Hello to my three amigoes. So great to see you all, and I'm very excited to unpack these upcoming mid terms, which I'm really getting pitted out about it, lovely. I just wanted to paint that picture for all our listeners. I mean, listen, it's felt like a bit of a roller coaster in terms of what we might expect. And I mean, I have my sort of point of view, but I've got you three, So who cares what I think? What do you think is going to happen? Or give us sort of the state of play right now, knowing full well that things could change on a dime. Mike, what do you see happening? Well, you know, I'm I've got the boring answer, which is I think it's gonna be a typical mid term. You know, generally since World War Two, the average has been the president's party loses about twenties six seats. So there's been three instances, you know, where that hasn't happened. So the big question is is it different this time? Well, you take the mid term problems, you add inflation on it, gas prices, all that sort of stuff, and that would probably make it worse for the Democrats. But there are some different things going on. There's row which has energized some young voters who normally don't vote in the off here that could be a thumb on the scale, and I would say some old voters tom exactly. But but the turnout problem is young voters. Democrats have a big problem in the off You're getting their young voters to show up. Maybe this will do it. There's some anecdotal evidence. We do at the University of Southern California Center for Plaical Future, I'm involved. We do a voter registration thing and this year is the biggest we've ever had by far. Is exploding, which is a typic. So you know, there's that. And the Republicans have nominated my beloved party that I'm hanging onto by a thread, as we've nominated some real cinder blocks. Well, I'm a conservative, and problem is I'm on policy. I'm right as center, So I can't, you know, get out the Carl Mark's heart tattoo and join the Democrats. I've been voting for some lately, I have to admit, because we have some unfit people running. But in a way of election, a cinder block can get washed twenty feet so they could win the Senate is the question. Yeah, Liz, what do you see? So I agree with both you and with Mike. It has been a complete roller coaster, starting with the messy withdrawal from Afghanistan, when we saw Biden somers tank and as a result, you know, in correlation with that, Democrats fortunes across the country tank. Then the Job's decision coming out, and now I agree with Mike that it is reverting to sort of a normal midterm. But I'm gonna add one more use of bad news and there for Democrats, which is something that I've heard from people on battleground races across the country, which is the things that keep them up at night are one, gas prices and to a COVID search. And I don't want to universalize my own experience too much, but I just personally just tested positive for COVID an hour ago. Oh gosh, this just endless justin I'm gonna put my mask on right here, and I gotta tell you, I'm hearing um from doctors and people across the country, like I see us just filling up. And I think if you add inflation, gas prices, COVID surging onto everything that it is. You know, it's looking like a typical midterms, which is bad news for Democrats. Yeah, you know, I feel like the timing on these economic issues, Brian could not be worse with the Democrats. I even read a piece this morning I forget where because I read so much about inflation numbers sort of in just a few months kind of leveling off, but not in time for the mid terms. So do you agree with Liz that we've got gas prices, inflation, and potentially a COVID surge and that's going to really serve to bury the Democrats. Yeah, I'm pretty pessimistic. I'm I'm a Democrat now, I'm no longer a journalist covering this stuff. And you know, in in life as in politics, timing is everything. And the Democrats were in a pretty good position to win the election that didn't happen in early September. Um, they're in a pretty crappy position for the election that is actually happening. Um in a few weeks. You have gas prices going up again, you have a failure of the party to drive an effective economic contrast, and that and not row is the number one issue. Two thirds of Americans think the economy is getting worse. Three quarters think that we're on the wrong track. This is a recipe for, as Mike said, a typical mid term year with you know, substantial losses for the Democrats. Why haven't the Democrats lis been able to make a compelling argument about the economy. It seems that they have almost abdicated this whole economic issue. I know traditionally voters inc Republicans do a better job handling the economy, but it seems like the Democrats are coming up slightly empty handed to me and correct me if I'm wrong. So I look, I agree with that. I think it's the results of a couple of things. And one is that a lot of these economic issues, whether it's either whether it's inflation or gas prices, it's largely out of you know, any one person, anyone political parties control. So there is sort of you know, hesitance to about how to communicate about that because it is out of people's control. And we know that, um, one day gas prices can be low and the next day Saudi Arabia can make an announcement right before the midterms that can um cause gas prices to spike again. The seconding is. Look, a lot of Democrats did sort of put all their eggs in the Row basket, and um, when the Dobs decision came out, we really saw a surge of enthusiasm there. And I still think ROW is gonna be really important, but it does make me a little bit nervous, whether I'm in New York or I was in Michigan last weekend, and I look at all the Democrats ads, and I gotta say, of them are about ROW, and I just I have heard less and less about it from voters, from friends who are outside of politics, and more about inflation and gas prices. And you know, I personally would like to see more Democrats going out there and saying we feel your pain. We haven't gotten everything right, but we are trying to lower your costs. We did the Inflation Reduction Act, which is gonna allow Medicare to negotiate for lower gas prices, cap the price of insulin. We voted to import b BE formula, which Republicans opposed. We vote to do this that, and to say at least we are trying, whereas the Republicans are trying to make your life miserable and hope that it helps them win, but we have heard less of that messaging. And part of the reason for that is because it's more remote. Drug prices aren't going to get lower tomorrow. It's gonna happen after the election. So the immediate economic concerns and voters have are harder for Democrats to address. Yeah, I think the problem is inflation is a politician killer because it breaks through all the talk and the three dimensional chess. You go to the grocery store and like you look at like a year ago, I was buying the same stuff for a lot less. So every week you get kicked there. Then you get kicked at the gas pump, and so those two things breakthrough all that. I've got a nine point plan or you know, and it's like, you know what, Trump might have been crazy, but when he was in I wasn't getting slaughtered like this. And older people are looking at their F one case and the stock market bouncing around, so it's nothing but pain and they're doing what vote. You know, everybody talks about a blue wave, it's not really it's the mid term wave. It can change color. It's tell the boss I'm unhappy, and Americans love doing that. We love changing the channel we love playing the pushing the eject button. And that's what's coming. And the only question is in a few of these close Senate races that the Republicans should be running away with, will the Republican candidates are under performing allow a Democrat to win in a year when they have no business winning. The House is gone? You know, I think that's over with, it's gone. Well. I want to talk about that in the role Marjorie Taylor Green may have if in fact a Republican majority is in the House. But first, um, you know, James Carville said, Republicans are hoping that women have a short attention span. We saw a really remarkable thing happen in Kansas in early August when it came to codifying the constitution right for getting rid of the protection for choice in Kansas, pretty ruby red state, right, So women were incredibly organized. The turnout was enormous. Do American women have a short attend and span? I mean, I guess that's the question. Or does the economy and those prices at the grocery during gas station overwhelmed the desire for reproductive rights in this country? What say you, Brian Goldsmith? You know, a friend of mine said, the Democrats were hoping for Revember and it might have just been raugust, and you know, that's that's a problem. I mean in Kansas, people were just voting up or down on that one issue, and that is fundamentally different than voting for a candidate for the Senate, where you've got a whole range of issues on the ballot um, including the economy and the cost of living and this stuff that just kind of punches you in the face every single day. People aren't out there trying, um, you know, most people to get an abortion every single day, but they are shopping for gas and groceries and and so you know, to Mike's point, the economy is not something that you can change between now in the election, but that doesn't mean that there isn't any thing you can do if you're a Democrat. And I worry our party has failed to learn the lessons of President Obama's reelection in twelve, which Liz played an integral role in where you had, uh, you know, mediocre to bad economy that people were feeling um and Obama was in charge, but he was able to drive a contrast about who's fighting to make the economy work for people like me, and and that's the contrast that I don't see out there. Yeah, and just to add to that, as the only woman besides the U Katie on the call, and I would say, yes, we um, I improved positive that women can have short attention spans, UM, but women can also be multitaskers. And women are also responsible for balancing their families checkbooks, for you know, filling up their gas tanks, for shopping for groceries. And these are UM things that they're seeing every day as well. So while you would think, okay, a fundamental right is on the line, that's number one thing, it is really hard to keep the focus on ROW when I think, as Mike said, you know, gas prices and the price of milk and whatever it is is hitting in the face UM every day. And so in places, you know, to Brian's point, um, like Kansas, where that's the thing on the ballot. In places like Michigan where you're gonna have that on the ballot, it ROW might be more of a factor because they have um an initiative they're about whether to overturn a complete ban on abortion. So there it's on the ballot and it's literally in your face. But a lot of other states, like if you live in New York, you know that our state law is very strong and protecting a woman's right to choose. There are seven battleground house races here that then row is probably gonna take a back seat. If you live in Arizona, row and abortion have never been in the top five issues issues for voters. Yeah, but what about this national abortion band that all the republic kids are talking about. To me, that really increases the urgency of this issue a little more than normal, does it? Not? Look? I sort of agree, But I also think we have to realize that we deal with the electorate as it is, not as it should be. And I agree, I think that these things should matter more. But it goes to show you that with a lot of voters, the things that matter most are the things that are right in front of their face. They don't think in terms of the long term, right right, And I think that's true of everything might go ahead. Yeah, there's also what's the most invisible group in American pop culture, pro life women. One out of six voters is a pro life female, the most pro choice group in America. By the way, You know, we always say women. No, it's young men who also don't vote in the off Your election is a real question about row is well, young men who tell democratic and are over very pro choice in most places show up. You know what's happened is or and and and Liz is right. There are plenty of states where it's a little bit settled. The Nevada center race, which doesn't get a lot of attention because decide the Senate. They've got a constitutional prohibition there. So it's not killing Adam Laxalt the way the Democratic incumbent thought in a very pro choice state, I think he's gonna beat her and pick up that seat. So between gas and groceries and the fact that it's not as overwhelmingly an eight twenty issue among the population, and in those swing seats, it's more pro choice than pro life, but it's not the hammer. In some places, it's not seen as a top issue. The New New York Times poll of people say the economy, only eight percent say abortion rights. Well, what about this national band, Brian? Is that looming in the minds of voters? You think in some ways, if the you know, Republicans take the Senate, they're gonna start working on that, I think pretty prompto. Right, I'm not sure. I didn't see a lot of enthusiasm from Mitch McConnell for a national abortion band. He may be kind of forced into it by a majority of his caucus, just as he's been forced into a whole bunch of stuff that he hasn't necessarily personally wanted to do. But you know, I'm not sure that that's going to be the election driver. I mean, the outcome of elections is as much about what is the issue territory you're fighting on as what each side says. And if we close this election on inflation and crime and perceptions about the direction of the economy, a lot of very flawed Republican candidates are going to get in because they have the edge on those issues. Well, let's talk about that. Let's talk about the Trump factor and the Biden factor. How effective has Trump been in terms of his endorsements of various candidates, Mike, I mean, he is still the standard bearer of the Republican Party. Is he helping hurting? Is it a wash? Well, in most primaries he helps a lot. But once you get him out of the primary world, you know, then then he's on a planet where he can barely breathe, and any swing general election, he's a problem, you know, where both parties are competitive, and those suburban congressional stage is a problem. You know, you don't see all these candidates running to him. Now, we have a few candidates who win a primary and are clueless and are running the general election like a Republican primary. So there are a few places, even in this wave where a Democrat who auto loses seat may win on that. But but Trump is an anchor around the neck of the party in a general election. The problem is he is a need to be in the center of everything. So he's kind of the unwanted guest who shows up and you know, what do you do? Speaking of the anchor, let's talk about the anchor lady running for governor in the state of Arizona, Carry Lake, who is sort of the new face of Trump is hum And I don't know if you all watched Dana Bash interview her on on State of the Union on Sunday. I thought Danna did a real, really incredible job. She kept calling her Dana, I think to get under her skin. I don't know if you noticed that. And she kind of interchanged Dana and Dana. Dana, I'm gonna have to disagree with you on the figure you just put out. The real issue, Dana is that the people don't trust. The question is are you undermining faith and elections by saying that election was stolen when there's absolutely no evidence to support that. Dana, You know she is really embracing Trump and vice versa. So what do you see going on there? Well? I think that, um, she's been a really fascinating candidate because unlike a lot of the other sort of Trump indoors senate candidates this cycle who run away from the press, don't really communicate with the public, sort of hide the ball, She's been very full frontal in her campaigning, both with voters traveling around the state and with local and national media. And she has that same feral magnetism to her that Donald Trump does, and sort of a knowledge of how to work a stage, how to work the media. That's interesting feral magnetism. Yeah, but there is something, there is something to when you see her work a stage that you don't quite have with the Hershel Walker, you don't have with a Doug Mastriano or Blake Masters, And it's why I think that she will be one of the you know, election deniers who slips through on the gubernatorial level. But she sort of perfected Trump is m and figured out how to take the crazy um and what I view is crazy and how to sort of soft sell it in these interviews, and certainly with Dana Bash. I mean, you saw just how slippery she was. One of the problems there, right, is that we don't have the strongest of Democratic candidates, sir, I'll just put it that way. And she refuses to um debate Carrie Lake, which I think, why is she doing that? Her her opponent, and that's the Secretary state, right, Lady Hobbs. Yeah, she's a train wreck of a candidate. That's the problem. They've They've got a slow pony, a train wreck of a candidate. She's really turned out to be a dud. And that's given the race to carry Lake in a state that is very wave affected. Yeah, and if you've been a major market local TV news anchor for twenty years, that is pretty darn good preparation for running for office and being slick on the receiving end of TV interviews and and knowing how to make an appearance that's effective. And you know, there's just no comparison in terms of candidate skills her. She's a great retail politician, whatever you think. And she has the best zoom filter in the business. The interview is real hilarious because there's about filters on the camera. She stole it. She stole it from Barbara Walters. It's unbelievable. You can't see a poor Yeah, is that true? Yes, you gotta see it. But I also think, Katie, maybe we've found the next chapter for you. Oh oh, I I don't think so. I try to get think about running for office. I I seriously did she She won't consider it. Sadly, my skin is too thin for that. When we come back, did you know more than two hundred election deniers are running for office up and down the ballot. We talk about what that means for our democracy. Right after this, can we just talk about a few other races where the Trump factor has helped jd vance. Obviously wouldn't be getting as much traction as he is, and I know he didn't do very well in that debate. Tim Ryan kind of ate his lunch, but isn't he still favorite? Dwyn in Ohio guys. I would argue it slightly differently. If it weren't for Trump, the Republican would be running away with a lot of these races. I mean, David McCormick in Pennsylvania I think would be up five or ten over Betterman. It's it's because Trump pushed a lot of very flawed Republican candidates, you know, to the nomination that a lot of these races that, as Mike says, are very way susceptible, are actually competitive, helpful in the primary, hurtful in the general. Exactly. It totally true. Vance is a terrible candidate. Ryan is running the best Democratic swing state campaign in the country for a Democrat. Now he's breaking all the d n C rules and he's running as kind of a lunch pail, a little more culturally conservative. There's a lot of kind of keeping his distance from Biden, right and saying we need we don't need an ass kisser, we need an ass kicker, which was a pretty good line. You gotta admit that said, this is an election where boxing hammers can win Ohio if they've got an hour after it. So I think it'll be closer than it ought to be, and maybe he'll do the upset of the century there, but he's going to need more of a lead than he has right now. But it goes back to what um and I agree with Mike, but it goes back to what Brian was saying, which is that so few Democrats are really weaponizing the economic case. Tim is an exception. Um. He from the day after j D won the primary, started running ads talking about how j D turned his back on the state of Ohio, moved to Silicon Valley, made all this money is coming back is funded by these billionaires. And it does remind me a little bit more of the messaging that Barack Obama used very effectively against Mitt Romney in which is to make the Republicans seem like they're the ones out of touch and that they're going to be disasters for your family. And that's one of the reasons why he's been able to hang tough in there. But there's no doubt it is gonna be really, really tough for a Democrat to win in this environment in Ohio. How much is Biden hurting And I mean, it's so frustrating to me that the Democrats seemed to be so feckless on the other hand, they've got a Democratic president whose approval rating is forty I don't even know what the latest approval rating is, forty three, he's creeped up a little, but his disapprovals fifty five. So the political majority is unapproved. So, Brian, how much of an albatross is Joe Biden? For all these Democratic candidates? You see people like Tim Ryan distancing himself. Um, that's happened in other races. I think Mark Kelly has tried to do that in Arizona and his Senate race. Um. But but you know they all have ds after their names. How much can they really do that? I mean, no more than normal normally in the midterm year, whoever is the incumbent president hurts his party a little bit. And the intensity of opposition to Joe Biden is not like the intensity of opposition to Donald Trump or even the intensity of opposition to Barack Obama in two He doesn't generate quite that level of vitriol, which is why you're seeing a lot of the Republican attack machine go after other villains, you know, AOC and even Pelosi and a few others. Um, So he doesn't help. But I don't think that that is the story of the election. Who's a Democratic attack machine going after Well, I think his name rhymes with Ronald Shrump, you know, I think. But the problem is he's not president. Why is Joe Biden so unpopular and have things like the climate bill, the student debt cancelation, anything he's done. Why is he still so unpopular? Well, you know, he's the Rodney Dangerfield of American politics because on the legislative side, he's done really well. He has passed more big important bipartisans stuff than any president in decades. The Chips Bill is huge. You know, we're gonna build semiconductors here and get kind of the energy equivalence you know, uh thing for the semis that are the key to almost anything we're gonna make in the future. Decent gun bill got done, of course, that by Parson. Infrastructure bill, one thing after another. I think there are two failures though. One is, you know, the minute they got infrastructure done, they switched over to hey, let's spend World War two level money on being FDR And they never got the victory lap they deserved there, and they didn't really try to take it. Uh And you know, I would be selling the Chips bill like the Apollo Project. It is a huge win for a hundred thousand dollar year American manufacturing jobs and a hundred and sixty issue. Republicans voted no, No, let the Chinese run the future. Um, I don't hear that. I don't hear any of that stuff. So Biden has not grabbed the microphone and done what he could do. Second, when you're paying many bar prices for gasoline, the president is going to get his butt kicked by the American public. And even though Biden didn't do it as the world market, but he's got the big job. The big job means you get the big blame, I guess. And and third, voters rarely vote to say thank you. They write on a choice about the future. They don't vote on the past. And you all were saying that you didn't think Biden or my understanding is you believe that Biden doesn't elicit the the hardcore vitriol that say Barack Obama does. But I mean, I was out on Long Island this weekend and there was a Lee's Elden caravan of cars with a lot of Maggot flags, a lot of Trump flags, and a lot of f Joe Biden flags. It was so gross. So I do feel like, you know, if he is the Rodney danger field of politics that he does. Maybe it's just the pro Trump, the hardcore Trump people, but I just honestly it's sickened me to see car after car with these huge flags that said f Joe Biden. Yeah. I mean, look, I think he does elicit UM. Maybe not as much as as Barack Obama, maybe not as Donald Trump, but he does elicit a lot of strong feelings from UM, from Republicans. And that's why it's been really really smart that unlike Donald Trump, he's sort of put his ego in the backseat. You don't see him put um sticking his deck out or popping up in these states where he is going to be a millstone around the neck of Democratic candidates. And the smartest thing that Joe Biden can do right now is just go be in rooms with rich people and raise UM more money. Because part of the reason why Democrats, why their numbers are falling in all these races across the country is you see the outside groups for Senate Republicans, for Congressional Republicans UM spending UM just ungodly. Uh sums of money um to defeat the Democrats, and that the cash um imbalance is a big problem for Democrats. So that's why it's smart of Biden to go to places like Oregon or Colorado where he can help. Kamala Harris, you know, was in the suburbs of Detroit this past weekend. But otherwise it's really smart of Joe Biden to sort of take a backseat in this election before we talk about some individual races. We got a lot of election deniers running out there. We also have secretary of states running who basically say the election was rigged and they're going to have the power to overturn right, basically essentially the will of the people and de facto rigg the next election. Right. I mean, how terrifying is that in terms of our democratic principles and how much is it going to come to fruition if some of these election deniers actually when there when their races, Well, it's a problem. And there was a headline this morning in the New York Times that I thought you saw that for the history books. You know, voters see democracy and peril but mostly don't care. And I think that is the story that other issues taking precedence because you know, abstract, it's not in front of their faces. Yeah, little d democratic principles are not you know what I'm thinking about as a voter day to day. And so yes, there will be election deniers swept up in this thing, partly because Trump has made that a requirement for not just winning his endorsement, but but extinguishing his opposition. I mean he went after yesterday, I think or two days ago the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado, which is potentially a very competitive race because he'd rather lose than have a Republican who's not totally indebted to him. So he's been very effective as a sort of neo fascist in taking control of his party and punishing people, even people who agree with them maybe percent of the time, if they're not going to take the full magaline on elections. And Mike, does it just freak you out? Oh, I've been freaked out for a decade about American politics. But first of all, Trump's losing his grip. No, but about democracy, I think it's sent a decline. So I we'll see, we'll see new primary pull trumpets that means he'd win nomination now but it's now what it used to be. So politics is dynamic, it's always changing. I worry about democracy, but I don't panic about it. We have a huge cultural failure in the US. We we've converted politics into a reality show with no stakes, real housewives of the presidency, and so people have become spectators and they're like, it's all rhetoric. They don't believe there's a real threat, because if they thought there's a real threat, they do something about it. And remember it's tribal. The Democrats all think, you know, democracy has gone Trump's gonna goose step into the White House, you know, And that's half the vote. The other half think maybe of them are worried, the other saying it's rhetoric. So the country is not unified on the problem. I have some faith, like in the last election, that good people in the right places will do the right thing in the end. I mean, Trump's thing was thrown out by every judge you looked at it. Election officials of the Republican Party. It's easy for Democrats to call Trump names, and they're right. I agree with them, but Republicans have to commit career suicide to do it. But people did it. Brad Raffensburger did it. The election officials in Michigan did it. So do I believe the threat is there? And I'm am I extremely worked up about it. Yes. Do I think it's the trux of this election. No, but I think measures are going to have to be taken. And the one thing they may get done in the lame Duck I would bet they will is the electoral account reformat, which is a quiet technical piece of legislation that bolts down the electoral college, which is vital. Now the left will say, oh, the Supreme Court will do it, No, they won't. It is it is the patch on the software that has created a lot of this vulnerability, and I think that's going to be gone by Christmas or by the end of January. Liz, I want you to weigh in on this because this is something I can't say. It keeps me up at night, but I'm completely, very very stressed out about uh sort of having the cards stacked in a way in many of these states that will basically disrupt democracy. Right. It's and it's you've got governors, you've got secretaries of state, attorneys general, state legislators. I think they're over two election deniers, you know, running crofts across the country at every level. And so yeah, no, we should be very concerned. But you know, I don't have anything inspiring or or heartening to say on this. It's that it does seem more remote to people. And the thing that gets less focus is not necessarily the Mastriano's a carry lakes, but all the people up and down the ticket, right who are going to get elected and who have actual power in this arena, right, Yeah, yeah, for pulling the levers of elections and who have been on a bash it by the way, and how they've paint on this. They haven't like tried to hide the ball here. They've been very open about the fact that um, you know, they take was stolen and that if four doesn't go their way that they'll make sure that they or their secretaries stay what whoever it is, you know, takes a close look at things. So I think it is something we should be very concerned about because increasingly it looks like the lunatics have been taking over this asylum in the GOP and that not only that, is that they are very um embracing and like Michigan was on the early end of this, like in April when we saw violent militias storm the capital there it almost felt like a tester run for January six. And the election to the nihilism does sort of seem to go hand in hand with electoral violence, and I just think that that's something, not that we need another thing to be concerned about after this, sorry Katie, but another thing that we should keep an eye on, and that's something I'm certainly concerned about um going into the November election. Yeah, i'd say one of the thing there is no moral equivalence between far left AOC Bernie Democrats and and MAGA Republicans. The far left people believe in democracy and the rule of law, and they just hold policy views with which moderate voters disagree. But the problem is Democrats have been a little bit too defined by some of these extreme voices to the point where in polling swing voters see Democrats and Republicans as equally extreme. That is a big, big issue, and Democrats need to turn around and address it a s a p or it's going to be the death of our party and all sorts of critical races. Yeah, I agree with that one footnote, And this is not a ray of hope or anything. It is kind of like God forbid Mike a flickering, a flickering lightbulb with some hope. A third of the election deniers are lying through their teeth because they're trying to survive in Republican politics, Sam t rhetoric. The worry is the other six fifty to sixty that our stone cold nuts, and how many of them actually win. And the craziest one I worry about, because I think she has a good chance of winning, is the potential future governor of Arizona. The rest of the master and some of those are mostly gonna all get killed off by the electorate, but we could have a real crank or two as a governor, which is why, again the electoral cadreformat, you've got to take some of the power away. So if you have a rogue governor, they can't start, you know, sending non elected electoral college people to misrepresent the state's voters intention That is the big loophole. Well, let's hope that happens before we dig into a few of these states. So you know, we've mentioned a lot of polls already in this conversation, and polling was very problematic, um and obviously flawed in the past, and it doesn't seem that a lot of changes have been instituted to improve the accuracy of polling. So how you know when when you look at the polling are you are you do you believe it? Or are you kind of thinking that might be under reporting certain certain groups? You know, Trump supporters don't want to be is forthcoming with polsters, so they sometimes overestimate democratic you know, turnout or the effect of democratic turnout. So what what's your take on polling these days? Yeah, I'm with you. With every election cycle, I um have less and less faith in public polling. And one thing that we've just seen consistently the last few cycles, but is that it does seem to undercount or underestimate the support for Republican candidates, UM and for Trump supporters because they are, you know, less trusting of polsters. So, you know, we saw a massive, massive difference between the public polls and and and the actual results in places like Ohio and Wisconsin, UM and even in Michigan it was a little bit less of that. But um and that makes me really concerned because in Ohio and wisconsinent it looks like those Senate races are going away from us, but the Michigan you still see sort of healthy leads for Regretchen Whitmer there um and some of the candidates there. But it does make me concern that we are sort of missing the picture here. Then add in with that, you have these completely out of left field polls where you see the Democrat up by one point in the gubernatorial race in Oklahoma, or where you see leave zeld In within four points of um Kathy Hokel in a poll today. And if you put too much faith in polls, you might die of whiplash. You know, we did an episode of Hacks on Tap with a PhD Republican Polls to Is said, you know, polling isn't what it used to be. The science of it is very strong. You get a random sample of voters, it's it's it's very telling. But two problems. One is it's hard to get a random sampling more because nobody answer their phone, so you have to do internet panels. You have to text people there. It's called multimodel. It's the best we've got now, but it's trickier. The other problem is most people totally misunderstand polling. They use it like a therapy animal. Oh my side's ahead, we're gonna win. I feel good. Oh no, new Pole New York Times says we're gonna lose. I feel bad. Must be something wrong with that poll. The polls are terrible a projecting forward. What political consultants use polls for is to take the voter's head apart to figure out what new information we can inject into the campaign dialogue, to try to get a future outcome, to move our way. Who you're going to vote for is the rear view mirror. You can figure out who would have won an election that didn't exist a week ago, and then that that stupid question. The media loves of the generic ballot, which we will vote for Congress nationally, so that's misleading. But again the media business. Polling is the only time where the media will create a story by buying a poll, often a crappy, cheap one, and report that news. So people need to like relax. I was gonna say it feels like the media is being really irresponsible and tend it and its reliance off these polls, Right, Brian, I would say there are two additional problems, and I totally agree with you, Katie. Um one is under accounting non college educated voters who have become very skeptical about all sorts of institutions, including the press, including posters, in part because they've been trained by Trump to be that way. He's quite open about that. But second, um more optimistically, from a democratic perspective, you could see a different composition of the electorate. Mike and Liz were alluding to this earlier because of Row, because of other factors that make this election potentially a little bit different than normal. You could see greater numbers of young people, of Democrats, of African Americans than typically shows up for a mid term election, and that could change the modeling behind a lot of this polling. This polling is often built on assumptions about likely voters. Yeah, you never want to trust that. When they say this poll is likely voters, it sounds better. It's actually much worse because the poster has made arbitrary choices about who's going to vote, and they don't really know. They don't know, they don't know that. The hardest thing that they should and the good ones work on, is get a true random sample of based on history, the most likely electorate and then they can ask some trick questions about what data is the election or who are you going to vote for? Without given names that they can name the candidate, then you know they're engaged in So there's some some trickery to it. But polling is still very helpful to run a campaign. But if you want to look at a poll today and decide who's gonna win all the elections and decide whether you feel good or bad, it helps, but it can't really do that for you. History is the best guide of how people vote. After the break, we're going to dig into some very juicy state races. Let's talk to Georgia and Mike. You can also talk about any state you're interested in, but let's talk about Georgia because it is crazy. I mean a herschel Walker, I mean Raphael Warnock. Go ahead, just have at it, guys. Well you think this is crazy, wait till herschel Walker wins and Trump starts talking about him as the leading VP candidate. There will be lines outside psychiatrists office for miles in the East and West coast. Um. You know, Georgia is going to be a runoff. We get to do this thing again. They have a Loft, you don't get the fifty and there's a libertarian running, so it's quite likely we have the whole Senate or one extra vote decided in early December, not even on election day. But Herschel's the classic boxing Hammers candidate. In a wave, he can win. Uh, and so he's got I saw this. You know with other candidates, when you're wildly credentialed in something outside politics and people are in a wrong track collection and hate politics, they give you a lot of leeway. You mean, the fact that he's an honorary police officer, is that what you're leading to. I'll tell you. I'll tell you. Everybody's laughing about the toy badge, But if you deconstruct that to that election and that electorate, and I've worked statewide in Georgia, that bad said I like cops, and that's not bad for Georgia cannidate to have be the worst moment. That debate was not Walkers. Walker did better. You know, he was mediocre, but Warnock was so bad. When Warnock can't answer if he's for Joe Biden or not, come on, we all know he's for Joe Biden. It's okay to say it, but he won't answer. He becomes a politician and Walker's the simple guy sat Biden groceries. Yes, Walker had a better or debate, the deserved and we're not getting awful debate. It was a draw and it should have been a wipeout. And I can even argue net Net. I think herschel is going to be a little higher in the polling this week because I think he came out of it better than even Yeah, and he partially benefited from the expectations being set so low. He did a good job of setting them low, but Democrats did a good job of doing it for him, and I think that was a mistake going into this. And I think all along to some extent that Democrats have underestimated uh Herschel Walker's appeal. But what about the hypocrisy of being anti abortion and and you know, saying that was his check Do people just not care? I think people care about where you stand on an issue. I think less and less over time people care about hypocrisy. So for if you're a Republican voter, you care about keeping the Senate. What you care about is the fact that Herschel Walker is saying the right things to you now on abortion. Whatever he didn't his path us, I don't think it matters that much to him. I know people are saying it could help around the margins with UM swing voters, and and maybe that's possible, but I think it's an election like where so many people already have their minds made up that it's not going to change a lot of minds on herschel Walker and others for you to disagree. But I think the other interesting thing that I'm looking at in Georgia is do split ticket voters still exist? Because we're seeing very different polling embers in the gubnatorial race from what we're seeing in the Senate race where Brian Camp has a very healthy lead over Stacy Abrams. And in recent years we've really seen drop off in split ticket voters. So we fascinating to see if how many people in Georgia are willing to cast a ballot, you know, for Camp, but then also for war Knock. My guess is not as many as we're seeing in the polling right now, But that is something that I think matters a lot for the future of partisan politics in the country. Yeah, that's interesting because I've been reading Brian a lot about people voting for Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania and then memot Oz for Senate when you're talking about like the memot Oz is gaining ground and I want to talk about that race now because that to me is so fascinating on so many different levels. Um, what do you think Georgia Pennsylvania to break up your Yeah, that's okay, I'm used to it. Yeah, we worked together a long time, So go ahead. I would say, I think Warnock has got a hope that he hits fifty in November because I think December, and I'm not sure if Mike and Liz agree, is very dangerous for him because in December it becomes potentially a fight over who controls the Senate. And I think a lot of voters could hold their noses and vote for Walker because in a generic ballot kind of election, they would perfor a Republican control over Democratic control in Georgia. Also, lower turnout in the arms will spell blood and they turn out m all right, Well, let's move to Pennsylvania, because a lot of people are saying in Pennsylvania to your point, Liz about Georgia, it also might be a split ticket with people voting for Josh Shapiro and Memotaz. Let's talk about that race. John Fetterman, I've been fascinated by this by the NBC political correspondent saying that he didn't understand sort of the small talk and he uses I guess a teleprompter to help with some of the auditory issues caused by his stroke. Um. That has been a fascinating race. Also, I know Memotas and talking about crude detaise at the grocery store, which is almost like Obama talking about a rugala, right, and um, so what's happening there? How do you see this all shaking out? Who wants to take that? Well? You know what's fascinating is today I saw a brand new ad that Oz put up um in which he says, or the voice over says, John Vetterman is not like Josh Shapiro. He is extreme on crime. So Oz is making an explicit play for Shapiro voters and basically throwing mass Triano under the bus by pumping up Shapiro as being good and reasonable on criminal justice matters and crime. So Oz really sees sort of his fate as tied to getting some of those split ticket voters like suburban women, Liz, Yeah, exactly, like people who might have concerns about Vetterman being too progressive on criminal justice issues, and so it was talking about his votes on the parole board. But there also is this factor about Vetterman's health, and I think some of it, some of the criticisms are fair, some are unfair, but again, we can't tell voters what they care about. And the debate that's coming up is gonna be really, really, really important, um and more important than your average debate because the voters are going to be looking to see Ken John Fetterman perform in a way that gives me the confidence in his ability to perform for me as a U S. Senator. And that's why I don't think that the their decision to do the NBC interview was that much of a disaster. You know, I know feelings are split on it, but it could also be a dynamic like we saw in Georgia where Republicans Walker Democrats lowered the expectations so much for Walker that you know, if you could just speak in complete sentences, it's basically a win. And we might see that dynamic for a Fetterman in the upcoming. Yeah, sort of like Sarah Palent. Sarah Palment did well in that debate because she was so underestimated and can I call you Joe? And she was stim in the trees, but she was able to do you know, as long as her head didn't spin around and she didn't vomit. You know that people thought she was pretty good exactly. You know, ads though Fetterman is getting killed by what we call the second look in politic. He had some rocket fuell, he kept going and people take the final look. This stroke has been a problem. Now. I think the Federman campaign could have done a better job of making him rocky in the whole state rooting for him on the stroke instead of being guarded about it. They've they've kind of changed that up. They've been in a DRD campaign otherwise. And the other problem is the crime record. You know, there are two kinds of democratic crime records. They're kind of moderate ones that are probably just gonna manufacture some trouble about and there's pretty hardcore stuff where they actually mean the liberal point of view and crime and voters aren't there and the Republicans kill him with it. That's what happened in Wisconsin with Mandela Barnes, and it's happening now to Fetterman. So you're gonna have a debate where the question that I think Federman can navigate with low expectations is the stroke issue. But Oz made a living on TV and he's really he's caught something on this crime stuff. It's real, and you know it. Democrats get uncomfortable. All those Republicans again, well they they scored here because there's real stuff. He's got felons working on his campaign because he's a very progressive guy on that. You know, you can argue the policy, maybe he's right, but the voters of Pennsylvania in the suburbs and other areas excurbs aren't there, and harden the campaign to tell people they're wrong. This is another argument for vigorously contested primaries in Pennsylvania and in Wisconsin. Fetterman and Barnes didn't really have a back and forth with their opponents about their vulnerabilities. Those were both positive elections and campaigns, and it would have served Democratic voters better if this stuff could have been litigated earlier, if we could have seen how Barnes and Fetterman would have held up on those issues, you know, six months ago rather than a couple of weeks before the election. The Wisconsin candidate. I think either of them would have been much stronger. Barnes was. That was madness in their primary to do what they did politically. What's also madness is that Rman and Barnes's campaigns didn't see these attacks coming from a mile away. UM smart candidates like Tim Ryan in Ohio, where even if you look at Cheryl Beasley in North Carolina or Val Demming's in Florida, they knew that Republicans were gonna come back with the defund the police playbook, and they made sure over the summer to run ads featuring UM sheriffs or you know, cops whatever, directed camera talking about how each of these candidates would be tough on crime and UM. Neither Fetterman nor Barnes did that even when they arguably had or inarguably had the worst negatives on these issues. And the fact that they didn't prepare for that is malpractice. Well, let's since you bring them up. Easiley and Demeans. Are they both gonna lose? Probably they're both in striking distance. But this year I would bet against both of them easily. I think has a slightly better shot based on data I've seen, including public polls and demings in Florida. I think Florida is going to be very, very tough. North Carolina these days, interestingly, is a little bit tighter. But I think given where this is headed, I I don't disagree with Mike, so can I plug one last race for a quake. I'm doing the superpack on this one because he's a friend of mine and it's an amazing race, which is the Utah Senate race. You have Evan McMullen, Republican hill staffer, former CIA Clandestine Services agent, running as an independent, with this amazing kind of republic crat coalition of independence Democrats, and a significant amount of Republicans running against Republican incumbent Mike Lee, who had been in trouble. He had a primary thirty nine percent of the state Republicans voted against him. This thing is neck and neck. It's not being noticed, McMullan says, and he means it. I will not caucus with Schumer or McConnell. I will be truly independent in the Senate, and of course, the Club for Growth and all the super pacts on the hard our side are going after him, but he's gone from seventeen behind you with margin of air race. It's really kind of amazing and it's a real Mr Smith thing, and we'll see if it can survive the hatchets flying through the air right now. But um, it's the only time I've seen a genuine hybrid candidacy with a lot of support from all three parties, not just two and a label. And we'll see what happens. It's going to be fascinating. Yeah, we'll keep an eye on that. Well. Donors need to pay more attention to races in the Pacific and Mountain time zones. Um, they have a little bit of the same problem that the New York d C Press does in covering races across the whole country that is critical to holding the Senate. Utah is a really fascinating race for the pro democracy cause, and so I think these things are really worth focusing on. And you were saying Nevada earlier that the Democratic incumbent senator is likely to lose to Paul lack salts On right. I think it's very very close. Um, I'm not quite willing to go as far as Mike can say that she's likely to lose. I I think she could lose. I think, you know, if the election were today, she might um. Nevada Democrats have a history of pulling out these tough races over the last ten years. We'll see if they can do it this time. But part of the problem has been extraordinary democratic deterioration among Latino voters who are not Latinos in Florida are very different than Latinos in Arizona, and even within these states, you know, Dominicans are different than Nicaraguans. And I mean these are all individual voters, but I think we can make some generalizations about a group that Democrats considered part of their base. Remember all the talk about communities of color and black and brown voters, Well, Latinos are not like black voters who vote for the Democrat attic party, very very different, you know, history, political ideology, and this could become a real crisis for the party. And as much attention as it has gotten over the last few weeks, is it is not enough? Well, it got a lot of attention in Florida in right, because they were very surprised how the Latino vote panned out. In um, and so I think this is mental Texas to ye, I mean the Damns always go to identity with the Latino vote, whre the Republicans go of lunch pale stuff, and was fastening about Nevada, that hugely powerful Latino vote. There is also heavily unionized culinary workers in Clark County, and that's helps the Democrats. Doesn't Harry the old Harry Reid machine. But Harry's gone now and the machine right now is not doing what it normally does. It's one reason why I bet on Laxalt. But we're seeing because there's some cross pressure there. We'll see if the trend continues. I have to ask you about Arizona real quickly. Blake Masters and Mark Kelly. I'm friendly with Mark Kelly because I did a documentary about gun gun violence and got to know Mark and Gabby pretty well. And Blake Masters has kind of changed his website when it came to his anti abortion policies. And is Mark gonna win? I think yeah, I think he is. He's running another really, really good campaign where he has separated his brand a lot from the national one, and he's sort of seen as his own person. He did a really good job a couple of years ago separating himself from Biden on the border. He's run ads. He's one of those candidates who saw that to fund the police ads coming from a while away, ran at about it. I think how his mom was a police officer. But has really gone out and run on the issues that voters care about and making economic case, but also running as Mark Kelly, not as a generic Democrat. And I think that's been a really really smart tactic. And to lose this point, he hasn't been rewhelmed by Republican money. I think he's been an extraordinarily effective fundraiser. Masters has had trouble kind of getting his act together, um, and so the outside Republican groups are not coming in in the same way. And part of that is some drama between Peter Tiele and Donald Trump, which is an interesting soap opera. But the net result is I think Kelly is well positioned in that race. Yeah, Masters went out and picked a fight in a feud with Mitch McConnell, which would not be in my playbook for how to get help in a Senate race this year. Yeah, that was that. That was sort of weird and hard to understand. What about Stacy Abrams and Brian Camp Um. I heard you all say about the split ticket thing, and uh, what happened to the Abrams campaign? Well, I get a FOURK because I think she's done and it's an amazing story because she was at the top of the Democratic Party and made, in my view and not smart decision to try for her comeback in an off year in a state that can have a Republican wave. Now she's going to get be and she's going to drop to double a baseball in the Democratic Party when she could have if Biden doesn't run again, she could have been a contender. I think so, Uh, Camp is good, Paul, He's significantly ahead and it's going to stay that way in my view. What do you think happened, Brian? I think a lot of it is structural, As Mike says, if you're running in a purple uh slash reddish state in an off year against a popular incumbent, it's going to be very challenging, no matter how adroit you are as a candidate. Um. And then I think you know, she also made some mistakes over the last couple of years marketing herself a little bit more for a national Democratic audience and a little less for a Georgia Democratic audience. I mean, I don't think this is gonna be enough to save Betto in Texas. But I think since his presidential campaign, Betto has been very focused on a Texas specific message, and I think he took a little bit longer for Abrams to make that switch. I want you, I want to talk to you real quickly about Texas. Sorry, I'm not going to keep you guys all all afternoon, but Betto. I know Abvitt leads better or work for the Texas subernatorial race by four points in the latest pool that we can't believe. So is does Betto have a chance to pull it off? You think? I don't think so. I think that those last three to five points in Texas are like climbing Mount Everest for a Democrat. I think you know, Texas has been moving in a more competitive direction for a while, but I don't think it's going to happen this year. Stay with me, friends, because right after this we're tackling and Donald Trump before we go, Uh, you think that Trump is on the decline? Mike, I heard you say that, who do you think will run in is Fronto Santis, the rising star of the Republican Party. Well, de Santis is showing is possible to be a Trump alternative and survived the preseason if you're a cultural warrior and you can't be attacked as a squishy you know, moderate Reno Republican. So he's proving the case that there can be competition to Trump. He's pulling. Trump's getting about forty of vote in the primary right now. This Santus is hanging in there in the mid to high twenties in Florida where the Trump voters know both of them to Santis beats Trump. So it's just it's like a bad X ray. Oh, like, you know, you've got some bad Organs here. Now, does that mean Trump won't be the nominee. No, He's still formidable. But it's an interesting trend and there are others who will try to fill that void depending on how weak they think Trump is in six months. So stay tuned. Well, you know there's cruise of always try to run. Rubio always wants to run. You've got Josh Holly who kind of wants to be a new Trump. You've got Tom Cotton, Senator from Margaret They're both Arkansas, who's a slightly smarter version of Josh Holly. You've got Larry Hogan will be the great hero of the sensible wing of the party. I'm all form he'll get slaughtered. Well, I was gonna say he's he's he's very different than the other other people you mentioned. Yeah, he could upset New Hampshire and then get crushed. Um. You know. Unfortunately, you've got Adam Kinsinger I think may try to make a run at it. Mary Cheney may run. Excuse me, Liz Janey. Mary's no friend of mine, and so I always canfuse them. Uh, Liz may run just to drive Trump crazy at debates, but electorally, she won't have the votes in the primary. You might see it Dan Crenshaw the House, or somebody who's kind of unknown now but has some rocket fuel in them if they were paid attention to. So if Trump has seen this week, there will be no shortage. On the other hand, there will be tremendous pressure unified among one because in the plurality model like we had in the sixteen Trump can keep going if Trump decides to run, which he may not. And I would add two others. NICKI Haley and Tim Scott um who would be interesting because they're you know, they're not white guys and very smart, very ambitious, etcetera. Um, I think, as Mike just said, the challenge for the non Trump candidate is, even if he deteriorates to thirty five or um in the winner take all Republican primary world, that's how he won in sixteen without getting majority support in the party. That is easily how he could win again in twenty four and so um, you would need a unified, consolidated opposition. I agree, there's one wrinkle. I don't think Trump could take a defeat early like he could back then. And we'll see. But I think he's got more of a glass john now. Because yes, we're publican primary voters and Republicans. What do you think of Trump? Love? Should we nominate him again? Half walk away? No time for somebody new. That's the real purality in the party. So if if Trump gets caught and actually bleeds, I think it could fold inside itself pretty quickly. But a lot of ifs, you know, we'll see, he might be running from you know, being confined to a qualm set hut on an air base somewhere serving out a sentence. So, you know, a lot a lot of unknowns in the Republican world right now. And if Joe Biden doesn't run, and I know the conventional wisdom is he will right now, who will be the Democratic nominee? I mean, Kamala doesn't seem to enjoy much popularity and has kind of been in the witness protection program in some ways. And I mean, so who is this Who is the the person in the Democratic Party who is going to rise to the occasion. I don't know, but watch Whipner. I think that Joe Biden is going to run. But if he doesn't run, just I think it's really incumbent upon the party to have a big, vibrant primary and not just try to hand off the nomination of someone and look how at work for us. I think we did end up with the strongest candidate to run against Donald Trump and Joe Biden, And going forward, I think we should try to aim for that as a party and real quickly if the House and Senate both go Republican, you know, are they going to try to impeach Joe Biden? And for what I mean, I think the House guys will, well, they're played to their internal politics and there will be noise about Impeachingums. Ridiculous. What well, it's good for Biden. That's the one thing I could unify the party around. What are they and for being a Democrat? You know, all the sanity. We're a reality show here. You know, why did why did you know? Uh, Tawny throw the chair at Belinda because she was mad she wasn't invited to the cocktail party. I mean we've we've turned it into that, you know, um and watch watch Real Housewives. No, I hate. I want Andy Cohen to be brought up on charges for cultural crimes for what that world has created. My wife, of course watching it, and I hear coming down the hallway, my daughters watch it, and I'm like, girls, you've got really good education. Why are you watching this? Oh? Everybody watches it. But Trump is a reality star, that's all he is. I want to hear more about Tonny and Belinda. I know. Meanwhile, the Chinese are graduating five thousand engineers a year and we're screwing around with who through a cupcake at who won the party bus? But so, so, what are your predictions if the Republicans win when both Houses. Everything shuts down except for executive orders. The Democratic Party starts to eat poor Joe Biden for electoral failure. The Republicans get very little done and overplay their hand and make some mistakes, though the map for them in the center is pretty damn good in and both parties have a big, crazy open primary that will erupt all through particularly the the second third quarter of and people on the left will be looking up real estate in Portugal and Australia. That's why the margin in the House is so important. I think one of the fundamental mistakes of this election is a lot of Democratic donors thought, oh, the House is lost, so I'm not gonna send money. You know what, Losing the House by five or ten seats is recoverable in two years. Losing it by twenty five or thirty much much more difficult. I agree. The Republicans absolutely will overplay their hand because McCarthy is a prisoner of the extremists in his own party. He's shown no capacity to stand up to them, and he's cozy enough to Marjorie Taylor Green, Oh to all of them. He can't we got beat. You know, the brave tan who voted for impeachment are all gone except for one. So the Republican casually isn't there. You got the damn d trip going in and murdering UH Michigan, Um Peter Meyer, who is a complete patriot and hero because they're doing anything to win a primary. Now they may get a nut in that district. So anyway, it it's gonna be grim in the Republican House conference. There's still saying people on the Sentate side, and Liz will let you have the last word. Um. Look, I agree with both what Mike and Brian said, and if I were a Republican I really would fear. Um the prospect of overreach and the fact that they are already talking about impeached and Joe Biden for nothing, frankly, other than being a Democrat should be a real warning sign to them. So my prediction is that it is going to be an ugly couple of years, but um that there probably will be some electoral backlash for them if they overplay their hands. All right, I'm gonna go look for some tims. Always great to talk to you all. Thank you so much for being so generous with your time. Liz, Brian and Mike and Uh let's stay in touch. Thanks. Thanks Yea. Next Question with Katie Kurik is the production of My Heart Media and Katie Curric Media. The executive producers Army, Katie Curic, and Courtney Litz. The supervising producer is Lauren Hansen. Associate producers Derek Clements and Adriana Fasio. The show is edited and mixed by Derrick Clements. For more information about today's episode, or to sign up for my morning newsletter, Wake Up Paul, go to Katie Currek dot com. 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