The nerds are joined by Hoops Tonight host Jason Timpf to discuss where Luka Doncic, LeBron James & the Los Angeles Lakers rank among the best teams in the Western Conference, whether Nikola Jokic & the Denver Nuggets are bigger threats and better than last year’s team, and if the window is fully shut for Joel Embiid, Paul George & the Philadelphia 76ers.
Timestamps
00:00:23 - Are the Lakers contenders with Luka?
00:38:10 - Are the Nuggets better than last year?
01:10:18 - Is Jimmy Butler the most underrated star in the NBA today?
01:26:39 - Is the 76ers championship window closed?
#Volume
The volume.
Oh my god, how could he do that? Got what Charles Darwin? The Nerves is where it's at.
Welcome everybody back into Nerve Sesshon. As always, I'm Carson Brevorn. Alongside me is Logan Camden, and today we are joined by a very special guest, our good friend, Jason Timph is here, of course, the host of Hoops Tonight on the Volume. Jason, it's been a minute. How are you doing.
I'm doing good. It's good to see you, guys. I've seen all of your Denver Nuggets propaganda that you're putting out there. Just just coming in here to maybe push back a little bit, bringing back to reality. We'll see I'm just kidding. I'm just kidding.
Oh, just facts, just statistics, Jason. No propaganda here, but Nuggets are playing some good ball. We are going to talk about the Nuggets later on in the show. Ohoh, but we have to start with the Los Angeles Lakers. Of course, this is going to continue to be the biggest story in the sport for a while because Luka dancc is a Laker and that's just about the craziest thing that's happened in NBA history. And as I always like to point out whenever we talk Lakers with you. Jason. Of course, you do an incredible job of covering the whole league your shows Hoops Tonight, but way back in the day when you first joined the volume, it was Lakers Tonight, So you do have a certain expertise when it comes to the Lakers specifically. So, having now seen a couple games of Luca as a Laker, one blowout win versus the Utah Jazz, one blowout loss versus the Utah Jazz, do you think that this new version of the Lakers is a contender?
I do. I think we'd all would be foolish to think that this group could not get all the way. I think that placing them right now is extremely difficult, just because I didn't think either of those Jazz games were necessarily what this team's going to look like when they're kind of fully round it out. Luca was basically an afterthought in both games in terms of just his overall level of aggression. You saw some of the bits and pieces of the things he's going to do. But like the first game, Lebron and Austin were super aggressive and Luca just kind of sat back and let those guys were on the show. He made occasional plays here or there, but and then the second game, like literally the entire team just completely mailed it in. I did think that the second game showcased some of their issues, which is that when they don't compete on the ball, they can give up a lot of dribble penetration. But like, I don't think it's as bad as it looked in that game, because for literally a month prior, they were doing a fantastic job with similar players at containing the ball and flying around in rotation, rebounding, closing out possessions, all that kind of stuff. The second thing that really stood out to me in that game was once you get after Jackson Hayes, none of their centers can play, and when you reach a certain amount of like okay, if Jackson's out and Dorian Finney Smith is out, now you have to build every lineup around one of Van doh or Christian Coloco or Alex Lynn. And so if one of those three guys are on the floor, then any team with rim protection can stash a rim protector there. The Jazz did it a little bit in man demand, but also with a little bit of zone but they were able to park Walker Kessler under the rim and that ended up bogging everything down for them, and it was still fine. They still generated a lot of really good shots. I thought most of their issues were just not competing on defense. But it did shut off the rim. It turned them into a jump shooting team. They took fifty threes, they made twenty of them, you know that sort of thing. So like when I look in the big picture, I think that they'll have looks with Jackson at center that are offensively oriented but played pretty well that starting group in particular, And then I think they'll have a bunch of small ball looks. And I think their small ball looks will defend better the groups that have Gabe, that have Dorian Phinney, Smith vandoh Lebron, that those sorts of groups are going to defend really well. My guess is they'll try to pair Jackson with Luca as much as possible and let Lebron lead the small ball groups, which I which I think is is a smart way to go. I think they're gonna score a ton of points. I think there will be some ugly games where it feels clunky because the give and take between Luca Austin and Lebron is still getting sorted out, or like, uh, you know, obviously, poor shooting nights will happen from time to time because I think they're gonna take a lot of threes. But like I think, once this team actually gets to April and they've had thirty more games of reps and all that kind of stuff, they're gonna score the ball. That's not the issue. When I think about this team in the big picture, I really only worry about I really only worry about like the very best teams in the league in some specific matchup stuff, Like I actually think they match up pretty well with OKC because they're just so much bigger than every single player on their team. We saw that again with Minnesota last night, Like it doesn't even matter if chats out there, if every guy's got four inches on the dude across from him, they're just gonna get a lot of rebounds and they're gonna win a lot of physical battles. I think that's gonna be an issue that okayse he deals with that the Lakers can exploit, but teams like Boston that can really truly spread them out will give them issues. Testing their point of attack defense, and then Denver just like, if you gifting Jokic, you know, forty pounds on everybody who tries to guard him, that's gonna be something that they struggle with. I think I want to see them play against each other, and I want to see the Lakers play a bunch more games before I get really definitive about it, because the Lakers will present a lot of issues for Denver's defense. That said, like that, those are the types of matchups that I get concerned with. Let's just put it this way. If you're doing this sort of thing in the middle of the season, you're always gonna have a really small margin for error, and it's pretty clear that this team has a small margin for error. That said, don't overthink it. Lebron Luca Austin, with a bunch of role players that can play on offense and play a little bit on defense, they're gonna be a really tough out for anybody.
Yeah, I think I fundamentally agree with that sentiment. There's some other matchups that you didn't mention that I do want to see Memphis specifically too. Just a lot of these both sized teams like a Minnesota also that game from last night. No Roody, no Julius. Man, It's amazing what them Wolves can do it a little bit of space, man, I swear, take some notes.
Guys is hooping man, Oh my god, he's so tough.
The passing too. With Nas. I'm like, where is this coming from.
He's a big guard, man, he was born to be a guard.
Oh yeah.
It's frustrating when you think about their roster construction. So I don't want to give a cop out answer like that, but I do want to see this team against some some other teams that give them different looks, because I think it's gonna be matchup dependent. Like we always harp on the negatives that you were mentioning. I do think that's a big question about the Lakers. How much effort can they commit to giving every single night? What floor can this defense reach. Obviously we're only two games in, so take these numbers with a grain of salt. They have a one to twenty one point one defensive rating since getting Luca. That's equivalent to dead last in the league. But they have the number one offense with Luca, equivalent to one twenty four point five. So the US there, Alex Lenn is not going to be the answer at center. I can definitively say that I really felt bad for the guy. Dude, I will give him this. Alex Lenn never looked this bad in Sacramento. I can say that confidently, Like, I don't know what the difference is. Len was like, you know, it's not gonna be a great eight to ten minutes, but it's something that felt like watching your little brother play like your older brother in basketball against Walker Kessler. That's not the long term answer. So I think the Lakers are gonna have to scramble with some of these small ball looks. And again, that's where I really think it matters when we're talking about matchups long term, because there's a give and take. Right maybe their small ball lineups are really effective with DFS and with Hayes, and Hayes gets maximized with Luca, and they're spraying a bunch of threes. Also, in these two games with Luca, they're attempting forty six threes a night. That would be equivalent to second in the league, just behind Boston. And so I think this gives them a exceptionally high offensive ceiling if they're hitting and in those matchups that we talk we talk against a Grizzlies, right, a triple j and Edie. Maybe all that spacing, you know, is really hard for Memphis to cover all of that space. Minnesota, maybe it's hard for them on the other end. Maybe they just get bullied on the interior. But what you said at the end, there are Jason, I think is the nail on the head. Luca and Lebron are such brilliant passers and playmakers. I mean, these guys are basketball geniuses. There are two guys that amplify and enhance everybody on the court. And the one thing that I've really been encouraged by with this Lakers team through two games is the ball movement. I mean, the ball doesn't stick around. Everybody seems to get their touches, and I think as we see this team gel and really figure out the fit specifically, like that balance you were talking about, Jason, with Luca and Lebron off ball. We saw a little bit of some Luca offball actions the other night too. I'm hoping that they employ more of that and we see Luca commit to that. But I think this offense is going to be phenomenal. It's just isn't gonna be overwhelming because it's a real identity change. We talked about this on last episode, Carson, but it's not a two way team anymore. This is like a fully offensive oriented team, So they're gonna have to win that way. They're just gonna have to win track meets. It may not be the best formula, but I do think it's a formula that can give teams issues. And I don't know about you, guys, I certainly wouldn't want to run into the Lakers in Round one by any means. I mean, they're a really tough drawl, Like people are still gonna be scared of this team when it comes playoff time. I can say that confidently.
Really quickly, Carson, before you know. The two quick things I just wanted to say is like it's important to acknowledge their small ball looks were guarding and guarding extremely well before Luca came and a big part of why they looked terrible against Utah in that game, in addition to them just being already in Cabo. But the other part of it was Gabe Vincent and Dorian Finney Smith are probably their two best perimeter defenders and they were both out just for Rest not injured, they were just out for Rest. And then the second thing too, like the Lakers small ball look is a huge small ball look like it's going to be Austin at six ' five, Luca at six nine, Lebron at six nine, Dorian Finney Smith at six's eight, and either Ruey or Vanda who's six ' nine, so like, and all those dudes are big and strong, so like they and they're and they're all really good defensive rebounders except for Rui and like, so I do think that there's Ruey and dfs are both ken but they can rebound, so it's so and Austin rebounds well for a guard. So like, they are a small ball group, but they it's important to acknowledge that they're not. They're not three guards and two small dudes playing like it's a it's a huge small ball look, right.
I also think that in some ways it's lacking two of the things that I really want to see from a small ball group if they're going to succeed at a high level, and that is speed. Because it is a bigger quote unquote small ball group. It's also a slower small ball group. And you have to have that aggregate rim protection. I'm not really convinced that that group has it. So that's the thing. It's just ath lets. I think you have to be so menacing. You have to be able to do what an OKC can where you just wreak havoc. You have to be able to do like what the microball rockets did, where you just have that much speed on the floor. That's where I think I'm just lower on the Lakers defense than you probably, Jason, and I don't deny that they have been defending at a high level last fifteen games. They're the number four defense in basketball. It just doesn't mean that much to me because I do think introducing Luca for thirty six minutes a night changes things. Also, they still did have AD for a portion of that period. Like big picture, I think this is probably a bottom ten defense. I think that they have major point of attack issues, and I think that they have serious interior issues as well, because Jackson Hayes is fine, but like you said, he's the only playable center here. So then they are going with so many of those small ball looks and I kind of think they have to try to find a way to get Vandal on the floor as much as possible, But I'm also pretty pessimistic when it comes to Vando's offense in a postseason setting. And I still worry again, just about that lack of rim protection in the small ball groups. But the reason that I say that Vando is so important is because shout out to Gabe and shout out to DFS, they are good perimeter defenders. But when it comes to like guarding some of these elite perimeter offensive players, I do think that Vando is your best option. But again, I just worry about if he can play in a playoff series, especially can he play alongside a center, which I think you might kind of need for those rim protection and rebounding aspects. There's just two glaring issues with this defense to me, and it's the two most important things. It's how do they contain these really high end guards at the point of attack? And then how can they hang on the interior Who's guarding a Shay on one end, who's guarding a Jokic on the other end of the spectrum. And you can go through all the best teams in the West, right I think they'd struggle to stay in front of a James Harden and then I think they also struggle to contend with like Naviza Zubats on the interior.
I think they were just special.
Yeah, but like over a series, I don't know. I think that's a problem. I think the dealing with the MAVs front court is a problem. And against some of those teams, right Dallas, the Clippers, Memphis, what have you. You can talk me into like, Okay, well, we just think that we're going to outperform them with our offense being insane, because I think there's no question this should be a top five offense in basketball, could be a top three offense. It's one of the best offensive duos we've ever seen. Luca Lebron should be and Austin Reeves has been playing at like a fringe star level since Christmas, and they're shooting around them. And Jackson Hayes just as that rim runner. It's a successful archetype alongside Luca and Lebron, like he's gonna be able to produce zero questions about the offense. I think it's an elite offense. I just really worry about the defense. And again, if you're saying I'm gonna bet on their offense against a superior two way team like Memphis or like Dallas, these teams that really can defend and have superior depth. I think there's no question about that. If you want to bet on LA's offense against those more flawed offenses but complete two eight teams, I see that case where I struggle is Okay, Okay, See, I don't disagree that the matchup isn't bad. I just think the talent disparity is too great, and I think that they will be able to ultimately do whatever they can to force the ball out of Luca and Lebron's hands and force other dudes in that offense to beat them. And they're just such agents of chaos that like, yeah, I think that they will lose on the glass, I think that Lebron and Luca can go through all of their dudes except for lou Dort in single coverage. I still think there is an aggregate skill and a complete athleticism and depth of talent with Oka. See that I just think completely laps what the Lakers have. And then Denver, I just think it's a terrible, terrible matchup for the Lakers. I mean it has been for years. The Nuggets are fourteen and three against them over the last three years. Jokic average is twenty eight four teen and ten on like sixty six percent for shooting. He has gotten whatever he wants against them for years, and that was with Anthony Davis. And when you downgrade obviously by far your best defensive player and your best option to throw at Jokic, I just think he is going to obliterate them in a way that we haven't even seen yet. Like there's not a limit that I could put on what Denver's offense and what Yokic can achieve against the Lakers, And you could look at the other side and you can say, okay, well, who's dealing with Luka Doncic. Who's dealing with Lebron. I think Aaron Gordon can do a decent job on Lebron, but Luca is really the problematic matchup. Christian Brown is not equipped for that. Maybe they try Russ on him as sort of a stronger guard. That's a bad matchup for Denver. Peyton Watson is probably the dude who can guard him best. But Peyton Watson's not going to play more than fifteen eighteen minutes, So like that's fair, But I just think Jokicic is clearly the best offensive player in that series. I think that Denver has the better offense. I mean, they've been on a ridiculous, ridiculous run as of late, and I trust their defense more. I think that they've at least shown collectively a level that they can get to as a group in years past and playoff runs where they get serious. And the Lakers we just haven't seen it for very long. With Luke, obviously, we've seen two games, but I'm not optimistic. The Utah game was really, really ugly. Jordan Clarkson is getting dribble penetration at will. He's getting whatever he wants. And yes, I don't disagree.
Lakers, the same team two nights earlier beat the Ship, obviously trying this at the point of negativity from.
Cardon down to rotation guys man.
So Luke already, they were on the plane. They were on the plane, Carson, they were already.
I don't disagree. I don't disagree. But it's also Luca and Austin Reeves as you're starting defensive backcourt at defend.
Austin is not a bad defender.
He's mediocre.
He's certainly not every big every big game. He plays really well on the defensive end of the floor. All Right, I gotta I gotta back against some of the parts for it. So a couple of things. I think, let's kind of go down the line here as far as comparing team to team. First of all, when you're looking at a perimeter speed kind of concept, there's when you have Anthony Davis in the lineup, for instance, a guy like Max Christy becomes vitally important because you need someone that can navigate ball screens and there's a certain amount of like speed that is important in those sorts of situations when you're chasing over the top, you're trying to get rear view contests, you're trying to flatten out drives over the top of screens, things along those lines. There's a very specific reason why the Lakers have been guarding really well over the course of the last month. JJ Redick leaned into this concept of switching early in the year and including switching with the five man, and it wasn't working in a lot of cases because the Lakers just weren't competing the way they needed to and in order for small ball looks to work. Excuse me for five outs or five man switching to work, you've got to have guys competing on the glass. When they're picking on mismatches, you have to shrink the flow around them and offer help and rotate. And they were just like letting teams pick on Delo and Austin and just standing around Lebron in ad would be standing guarding someone on the perimeter and they get cooked and they would just run into all these issues having to do with just not competing. And then a couple of different things happened. One they traded Dangela Russell for Dorian Finney Smith, who in addition to just being a better defensive player, is a like just a tailor made defender for a switching scheme. And then you get Jared Vanderbilt back healthy who can guard bigger players and smaller players as well. Like to me, Jared Vanderbilt is an upper tier defensive player in this league. And then Lebron starts to believe in this team. Lebron mailed it in against Utah on Wednesday. That was the first time he's been like completely disengaged in about a month, if not longer. Lebron has been guarding as of late, like really really well, and so when you actually start to get into the lineup, it's like, Okay, Lebron engaged defensively as a very good defensive player. Dorian Finney Smith, within the switching scheme, I think, is a good to a very good defensive player. Jared Vanderbilt is a very good to great defensive player. Gabe Vinson is a good defensive player. Austin Reeves does his job on defense. He defense like Ruey had a really rough game against Lori Markinen on Wednesday, but he is capable as long as you don't make him track a shooter that's like his big that's his like his Achilles heel is. He just loses side of shooters. That's how Michael Porter Junior did so much damage to him in the past. So the Lakers actually have a lot of really good defensive players in their rotation. That's why they're guarding. They're guarding because they have a lot of really good defensive players. It's not because they're just playing hard and it's February. They have really good defensive players. They Now you add Luca into that equation, I'm not of the opinion that they're going to be a top ten defense either. I think they're going to be in the middle ten because they have a lot of really good defensive players and they're all really big. Now within the concept of switching, the reason why their defense has been working is they've been shutting off dribble penetration that comes naturally through screens. And watch them when they're actually locked in on defense. They do a great job of gapping. So like the guy will be looking to attack a match up, Let's say Isaiah Collier against Ruey hot Chamura, but instead of Isaiah Collier just driving right by Ruy hot Chamura while everyone's hugged up off the ball, they've got guys sitting in the get driving lane on both ends. And both of those dudes are six ' nine and both of those dudes can move, and so they get in there and they rotate back out to the shooter and they shut off that drible penetration. And because Luke is a very good rebounder, Lebron's a very good rebounder, Austin's a very good rebounder for a guard, Jared Vanderbilt is a very good rebounder. They're rebounding pretty well for small ball groups. I think before the Utah game they were like twelfth in the twelve and one span, which is eleven and two span, which is great for a small ball group to be rebounding that well. So, like they compete and they do all those things really well. The Denver matchup. The thing with the Denver matchup is they killed the Lakers with strength. They killed them because they were bigger and stronger than them all over the place. Go back two years ago. It's like Jamal Murray is just eating up Dennis Schroeder because he's too small, and Austin Reeves is guarding Michael Porter junior, and like, obviously there's a strength mismatch in terms of Anthony Davis under the basket with Nikola Jokic, this is a infinitely stronger basketball team. They're bigger at every position. They're like twenty thirty pounds heavier at every position than they were in years past. This is a team that presents a different, an entirely different challenge to the Denver Nuggets. So, like, to me, taking whatever what you saw in the last two years can basically be thrown away. You talked about Oklahoma City as an example of a team that will get the ball out of Luca's hands, or get the ball out of Lebron's hands. I actually really like that matchup for the Lakers, in large part because Lou Dort is the Lebron antidote. Lou Dort is the Luca antidote. Too bad, there's two of them now, and you've got to find a way to match up. It's gonna be Jalen Williams, and he's not gonna have much of a chance against either of those guys guarding them. Also, the big difference between this Laker team and the Dallas Maverick team that went to the finals last year, this Lakers team has substantially better play finishers. It's not Derek Jones Junior in PJ. Washington. Ruy Ha Chamura is shooting fifty three percent on unguarded catch and shoot jump shots this year. He is driving closeouts well. Austin can operate with an advantage, Luca can, Irxes me Lebron can operate with an advantage. Drian Phinney Smith is a knockdown, catch and shoot three guy that the Lakers could not generate catch and shoot threes for because they didn't have the dribble penetration for now, they do. Like to me, this Laker team is going to be a level of offense that I don't think we've actually seen before in terms of like having two supreme forward matchup attackers that can always get the defense in rotation while having a ton of play finishing around them. So, like you had talked about, like how you think the thunder have more skill and like more overall talent. Here's the thing. Lebron at the at this point is playing at a top ten level, Luca is somewhere between the second and third best player in the world. Austin Reeves is playing at like a top thirty level as of late. This Laker team has a lot more talent than people are willing to admit. There's a lot of really really good basketball players here. And so like I think the points you're making in terms of the matchup stuff, like, yeah, I do think that there's a speed advantage for Oklahoma City if they played in a series, there would be stretches where they would force turnovers and get out in transition. But you're also a very aggressive double teaming, gapping, trying to force turnover type of team against two of the very best players in NBA history for making defenses pay for being aggressive. And you've got all of these like three four inch thirty forty pound advantages all over the perimeter that could cause all sorts of problems in terms of the glass. Like, dude, dude, Luca Garza ate the Thunder alive last night underneath the basket. Luca Garza did because he's just bigger and stronger than those guys. Yeah, So, like I think, I think when we discussed the advantages again, like this is the debate, right, Carson, And like, for the record, I think I said this on my show the other day, and this is what I believe to be true. The Thunder are on the same tier as Denver and LA. To me, the reason why the Thunder are so much better in the regular season is they're all twenty three years old and super athletic, so they just run over teams with their athleticism in the regular season. To me, those three teams are on the same tier. All of them present different issues for each other, and I think the way you laid it out was a great way to explain the issues that those teams present to the Lakers. But the Lakers also present a lot of issues to them on the other end of the floor. The main reason why I'm keyed in specifically on Denver and Boston is Denver is the one team where I could actually see Jokic's advantages on the interior being superior to the advantages that Luca and Lebron could generate on the other side. I can see the case for that. And Boston is the one team that I think has the right types of lineups to truly space the Lakers out to where they're gapping and sitting and hel helping on their mismatch. Attacking wouldn't work as well. So like, those are the two teams that when I look at it, I'm like, oh, like this might be something the Lakers can't solve. But I do think even when we discuss that it's important to acknowledge like never an NBA history have we seen a team with shot creation like what the Lakers present while also having a bunch of dudes that can either knock down shots or drive closeouts or play with an advantage. And I do think that is going to be valuable every Game three where it's a series tied at one and it's ninety five ninety five with five minutes left in the fourth quarter. You got to find a way to guard Luca and Lebron for the last fifteen possessions of that game. And it's going to be a huge pain in the ass. And so like I also, I will this is the last thing I'll say about it. Then they'll pitch it back to your Carson. Yeah, I we don't know yet. Let's watch him play some basketball. Like there's going to be some combination of what they did in the previous few weeks where they were awesome on defense with the switching group and obviously factoring in Luca's defense of shortcomings, but also the things he brings to the table. They play the Jazz twice, that's one of the very worst teams in the league. I'm curious to see, Like, I'm not gonna rank them with those other teams until I see them play more. And but I just there's a big part of me that says, like, let's not overthink this, you know what I mean.
Okay, there's a lot to unpack there. I don't disagree when you're talking about the matchup with the Thunder, Like I think that the Nuggets are a significantly more problematic matchup for the Lakers. I'll disagree with the point that you made about them adding strength everywhere because they didn't add strength in the spot that matters most. They lost strength, They lost thirty pounds, They lost one of the guys who is one of the better Yokic defenders on the planet, no matter how much he's gotten torched eighty gets slandered for not stopping or offering any resistance to Yokic when nobody can do that. Jackson Hayes is going to get brutalized, absolutely brutalized. So that to me is the most significant thing. Like, I don't necessarily think the perimeter defenders who they have on the roster now pose any more resistance to Jamal Murray than the previous iterations. Like I don't necessarily disagree that Jamal wins with his strength at times. He also just wins a lot as a pull up shooter, and he wins a lot if you lose him coming around to screen and pick and roll with Jokic. And I think that the guys who they have now are worse equipped to defend in that way than previous iterations of perimeter defenders that we've seen for Lakers. And by the way, Jamal Murray didn't even play well against the Lakers last year and it was still a five game series, So that matchup. To me, it's just I don't see them getting the stops. It's two elite offenses, it is too, offenses that pose a lot of issues for one another. But I think that the Lakers match up worse now there, Like I think that just having it Davis alone, Yeah, I think it's true. Well, certainly defensively, it's so much worse. Offensively, it's a lot better.
You think they're you think they had a better chance with the previous version of their team to beat down.
Yeah, I don't agree, right, I just because I disagree with that.
No, No, okay, I don't necessarily think that that's true.
I think that.
In both of those series too, their offense fell apart in both of those series at times like that was when they'd lose control. Like, there's this Laker team fundamentally presents a much much much, much, much much much much tougher challenge for Denver's defense than last the last two teams did.
I completely agree. I completely agree. I think that the offense is clearly up a tier from where it was. But again, I think that the defense is worse suited for the matchup that was already the worst matchup in the league for them, that they just got shredded in over and over again, the Thunder. I think that you made a great point, and this is exactly what I said on our last show. We've never seen a combination on one roster of two all time great mismatch attackers like Luke and Lebron and two all time great playmakers like Luke and Lebron. There is no team saved maybe Boston, that has two dudes on the floor who can guard both of those players, and so it's a complete unique problem for defenses to face. I think I'm just higher on the totality of okc's team defense maybe than you are. Like I do think that this is a historic defense. I think that their speed is like something that we've never seen. I think their ability to force turnovers is like something that we've never seen. You can talk about them getting beat up on the glass. They're certainly improved there from last year. Right, they're like twentieth and rebound rate this year, which isn't great. But we've also only seen a few games of Chett and Hartenstein. Chet's still just playing his way back into form right. He certainly hasn't looked like the player we saw at the start of this year. Their rim protection still has been insane. They've been like the best rim protecting defense in basketball, even without Chett and Hartenstein sharing the floor almost this entire year. I don't think that we've seen a better built defense to trap and then rotate like crazy and cause havoc. So just as much as you can talk about Luke and Lebron being these absolute surgeons and geniuses picking apart defense as being overly aggressive, I agree, We've also never seen a team, certainly this century, be as good at being aggressive as good at weaponizing their speed as the Oklahoma City Thunder are right now. And I do think that the depth is just better. And that's the other thing you're talking about some of the good individual defenders with the Lakers. The challenge to me is finding the minutes for all of those guys, because you're going to play a ton of Luka Doncic, You're going to play a lot of Austin reefs who maybe you're higher on defensively than I. But I think that he's mediocre there, You're going to have to play a lot of minutes at Jackson Hayes's center, who is just fine. Like Ruey is still starting for.
This, I don't think Jackson is going to play much. I think it's a seven man rotation mostly small ball. Look when you get to the postseason, like you were talking about them, talk that they will double Jokic. Problem they'll put they'll double Jokic and try to force Christian Brown and Russ to score. And by the way, I know they've been doing a really good job using those guys as cutters and slashers and all that kind of stuff. But yeah, my guess is JJ is gonna instead of trying to match Jokic's size, I think he's going to be like, let's play an entirely different style of basketball and see which style wins. I think that's gonna be the way that he's gonna go. And when they go small, it's a seven man group that they trust, Like Dalton's not gonna play, It'll be the five. It'll be the five starters except for Jackson will only be like a two shift player. He'll start the first quarter and start the third quarter. And it's gonna be a lot of Vando Gabe and in DFS Man. That's they're all six n and fifty pounds. They're they're they're not they're not tiny like they're gonna, they're gonna, they're gonna present they're gonna present some issues for Denver.
They're not tiny. But again, I think that if you are going to just double the ship out of Jokic, the way you do that most successfully is you do what the thunder haf and your fastest ship, and you rotate out to everybody and you force them to try to attack close outs and like you funnel them into your one rim protector. Like that's the sort of defense that's built to double Jokic like hell and force everybody else to beat them. I just don't think the Lakers are fast enough to do that. And still like, yeah, they're big for a small ball lineup, but again, rim protection against the team is as good cutting as the Nuggets.
Are the title without REMP protection in twenty twenty three.
Yeah, that's true. They also had a historic offense and they ended up being this is going to be historical defense in total. I think it's going to be a great offense. I don't think it's going to be as great as Denver's offense is right now.
But Howard team's going to stop the Lakers.
I don't think a lot of teams are going to stop the Lakers. I think the only way that the Lakers could run into any sort of offensive issues is if they have to try to play like a Van do Whin a Jackson Hayes simultaneously, which I don't think will see much of. It's interesting that you think Hayes is going to play that little because.
It'll be it depends on the matchup. It'll depend on the matchup. But my guess is they'll go down with Austin, Lebron, Luca, DFS and Ruie and so like. So let's talk through that. So you've got three dudes that are six eight or taller between two twenty and two sixty depending on the guy, Aey of Austin. How are teams going to be able to stop that team from getting good shots?
That's not at all my issue with this team. I literally said, I think that there'll be a and probably a top three offense. The distinction I would make is Denver didn't have high end rim protection they were a lot bigger still though, And like, even if you're talking about this Lakers team, like their biggest guy is the size of Denver's third biggest guy in twenty twenty three. It's Aaron Gordon, it's MPJ, and it's Jokic Sho. No, none of those guys individually are very good rimp protectors, but the aggregate size and length in the paint is still legitimately imposing. In the rebounding, It's not, oh, we think we can be average, it's worth the best rebounding team in the league. So those things I think are significantly different. I just think I see more defensive issues with this team in any iteration, probably than you do. I mean, I think that's the difference. I'm not gonna sit here and say that I have any concerns about the Lakers offense. I think it's a dominant offense, but I worry about the defense, and I worry a little bit more about the depth maybe compared to what I get to see.
I get that. I want to be clear too, Like I I for the record, when I've watched Denver, my biggest concerns with them this year have been defense. Oh, by far and and like, honestly, like I think we're I think we're. You and I disagree, is I have ate the Lakers on the same tier with them, and you don't, Like, I don't know how I'm gonna feel. It is very possible that when I get to April, I rank them. Okay, see Denver Lakers, but I but I view them as on that tier, and I think, like, I think that like a lot of people are like rushing to like hyper focus on the weaknesses with this group, and it's like, it's like they're gonna be really fucking good, man, They're gonna be really good. Like they're good as they're there. They brought in Luke at a perfect time when they were playing a really good brand of basketball. Lucas slots perfectly into that brand of basketball. One of the big things that stood out to me in the last couple of weeks too, is like this like four out one in matchup attacking style of offense actually more falls in line with JJ's philosophies than the five out motion stuff. I actually thought Darvin was a little better with the five out motion stuff, believe it or not. And like JJ spent a bunch of time with the Celtics talking to like Joe Missoula, he was like considering getting onto that staff at one point in time. That's kind of JJ's basketball philosophy. And I think that that gear's really well to this particular roster and the way that they're going to play. Like, I think that we'll see a very different version of the offense in the future too, as they lean more into Luca and less into Lebron and Austin. Like, I think that this is a really nice fit, and I think, like, yeah, there's gonna be some issues, but I've also been really impressed with JJ's defensive game planning this year, and like, I'm just curious to see what his game plan is for Denver, And like one of the things that made that Denver unit so difficult to deal with in the playoffs was Contavious Calwell. Pope as just like a more well rounded offensive fifth guy, And like, JJ is going to cater his entire defensive game plan around how do we get the ball into Christian Brown, Christian Brown's hands or Russell Westbrook's hands as much as possible to try to limit them. And I know again, and they've been fighting that with cutting and and Christian's been unbelievable this year. Yeah, but like, but like, and I actually think Christian all around is a better player than Kntavious Calwell Pope. I'm strictly looking at slow down half court environments in the postseason. Big spots can jj game play in a way that forces the ball into an inferior offensive player's hands while also producing a lineup on the other end that there's no good answer for for Denver, If that makes sense, that's what you has.
I actually just think that Christian Brown is a better offensive player than ksep.
I think that were Denver in the regular season for sure, because of his athleticism.
Yeah, but I also think that in terms of just like attacking a close out, getting something for himself off the bounce, even the flashes of pick and roll, Like, he's just more skilled and he's so so much better as a finisher. Like, Christian Brown is one of the better finishing guards in the NBA. He shoots sixty five percent on twos. I looked it up yesterday. He has the second highest field goal percentage in a season by a guard. The only dude who's better is Ben Simmons, who's six ' ten and didn't take any threes right, Like, it's incredible. He's third in transition points per game in the entire NBA. He's third in points per game off of cuts. So I think maybe you just have more concerns about Denver's shooting than I do, like in a playoff environment. To me, if you came into the year and you said, well, this is a super low volume three point shooting team that just lost one of their couple of best volume three point shooters in KCP, I would have said, yeah, I can see that being a concern, But they've just done such a phenomenal job of working around it to produce dominant, dominant offensive roles results. They have gotten so much better in other areas. They have so much more ball handling and playmaking than ever before. With Russ, they have more finishing, they have more cutting, They're so much better in transition. Yokis is even better, Like everybody in Denver's offense has been even better this year. So I think they're pretty clearly the best offense in basketball. To me, the entire conversation and with them and what they can be in a playoff setting starts and ends with defense, as it does with La I'm just even higher on Denver's offense than I am the Lakers. Should we just talk about Denver? Should we get to that?
Yeah, I mean yeah, I think I think that's a good spot to get into because I think one of the like to me, a lot of the stuff that you've talked about involving Christian Brown and just the difference in the team in terms of overall ball handling compared to last year with Russ, with Julian Strawther, all these guys, I think the number one source of optimism for me, because I do think there's a good amount of smoke screen in the NBA regular season. There's a good amount of it. Like there's a reason why Houston kicked everybody's butt for a little while. Like if you're young and fast and athletic, there's a thing with veteran basketball players where they leverage their athletic gifts in the postseason in a way they don't when they get in the regular season, and it just manifests in a different way. Yeah. By the way, there's even been games where Denver's gotten absolutely thrashed by really young athletic teams. This year. I was Okay, see that came in and kicked their buttons. Cleveland, Yeah, and then Cleland Cleveland I think did it to him. If I remember correctly, the there have been cracks that have shown with Denver against the best teams in the league. There are just seven and thirteen this year against teams that are in the top ten in point differential. According to Cleaning the Glass. A big chunk of this offensive dominance that you've been referencing has come through this absolute cupcake schedule that they've played in the last month. Like, I'm not saying that there's any uh, you know, bigger picture problem that's being exposed. What I'm saying is like, if you asked me why I think Denver's better, which I agree, I do think Denver is better. The reason why I think Denver's better is because Yokic is better. Jokic last year had a severe slippage in his jump shooting and what he was doing on the defensive end of the floor. He's had some lazy defensive games this year, but I also think he's had some great defensive games this year, and that clearly is something that's still in there. To me, Jokic is just so much more of an indomitable force this year than he was last year. Last year, Jokic to me, looked like the best player in the world. This year, to me, he looks like the best player in the world by a mile. And that is that is the fundamental difference where when I think about leveraging to the postseason, that I know is the thing that no one's gonna be able to hang with. I don't think Christian Brown is gonna be a world beater in the postseason. I don't think like there are a lot of those, like athletic young dudes that run into some issues when everyone else is actually engaged in playing super hard and doing their job and things are being game planned for. I do agree with you that like he's probably gonna be the fifth guy. I think they're gonna end up sitting Russ in big spots and it's gonna be a lot of Christian Brown in there with those guys, and they're gonna present a bunch of issues. I think he actually gives them another option for teams like the Lakers, so that you can put Christian Brown on a Lebron and you can put an Aaron Gordon on a Luca and feel like you're actually matching up pretty well. But yeah, like to me, the lion's share of my optimism for Denver just comes down to Jokic, to me, is peaking as a basketball player in a way that very few people ever have, and that that, to me, is the is the thing that's gonna be really difficult for teams to hang with.
Logan, please speak, it's been a while since we've.
Since Carson and I well, I mean it's interesting.
I think I kind of straddle the fence between you guys to put a bowl on the Lakers stuff real quick. I think they have a really rigid formula for winning in the playoffs, and personally, I have very low optimism that this defense is gonna be average. I think they're gonna be a below average defense. That doesn't even factor into me when I'm thinking about them against a Denver and against in Oklahoma City. I think it's really simple what you have to do and the things that have to go right, and also you have to temper your expectations. My expectations is at best, the Lakers get to a conference tie to a conference finals, right. The reason being is because you look back at twenty twenty two when the Mavericks went and they're starting five was Jalen Brunson, MAXI Kleiba DFS and Reggie Bullock like, all right, you know, I mean, you just give Luca ben though, you give Luca four guys, and I think he can maybe figure it out, right, Like he's just so overwhelming. And when I look at matchups against the Denver or in Oklahoma City, if Shay goes cold, and obviously that's like the it's a big if, right, you need to ex out Shaye. But if you can limit Shay, I think that maybe they're shooting wings enough to where LA could could knock him off. Denver Jamal Murray if you can knock him off his game, and obviously he's the Lakers killer, right, If you can knock him off his game, it gives you a window where I think that offense could be great enough. But on the Denver point, I still have LA firmly below Denver right now. I still have Denver below Oklahoma City. Jason, you talk about the three point shot. Jokic was thirty six percent from behind the arc last year. He's forty five percent this year. He's one of the best shooting bigs of all time, and his shots returned in a big way. Jamal Murray has found his footing. Struggled to open this season. During the title run, was twenty six six and seven. Over his last ten, he's twenty six four and seven. You mentioned that the schedule is a little cookie cutter. I agree. They do have the number one offensive rating over the last ten as well. Christian Brown's been awesome. Michael Porter Junior, the bench I think is the best since the title run. Honestly, I mean, I don't think the Nuggets and the Lakers are that different. I think that the Nuggets defense is gonna be better than the Lakers, and they have this camaraderie in chemistry, but they're still offensive oriented units that lack a little bit defensively. But I think the Nuggets are unequivocally better than last year. And yeah, I mean the reason that the Nuggets are firmly above them is because of Jokis. It's what you guys were talking about. It it's like there's still no answer. Look, I don't think there's an answer for Luca and Lebron, but their defensive issues are way more glaring than Denver's we've at least seen it before with them. I think they're definitely better than last year. But I feel like I'm closer to Jason on this spectrum, though I don't think the Lakers are that far away. And also, can I ask you one thing, Carson. The one thing that is befuddling me a little bit when you're talking about the Lakers, is it seems like you have this expectation that the Lakers are gonna continue to be I don't want to. I want to get onto the Nuggets too, because we met Lakers for a minute, But do you think that they're gonna look this apathetic when it comes playoff time? I just think that the Luca trade is gonna reinvigorate something within Lebron. I think Lebron is gonna crank.
He's already out the Utah Games. The Utah Games don't mean anything neither of them to me.
I just feel like we're gonna see a one. I think we saw this Lakers team. They've been reinvigorated for a little bit. Now. Yeah, I'm just a little more confident that they're not gonna get this kind of apathetic effort on a night to night basis I think, for lack of better term, I think this is a Lakers team that's gonna be locked in when it matters most.
I don't concern about like actual effort. My concerns defensively are about personal It's the same things that I've said a million times. It's about quickness, it's about rent protection, it's about rebounding. Lebron has been phenomenal for more than a month. I mean, he's been phenomenal offensively for maybe even longer than and he has locked in more defensively as of late. Like I have zero concerns about the offense, as I've said a million times over, I do think that Denver's offense is even better, though, And when you talk about like Luca being unsolvable, like yeah, he's one of the greatest offensive players we've ever seen, there's still a clear gap between him and Yolkic and Luca partly.
Just you are better shot creators than the backup shot creators for Denver.
Yes, absolutely, but I also think that Jokic enhances his teammates by more than we've literally ever seen, to the point where shot creation around him it's just not that essential to having an elite offense if you have great play finishing around him, which I think the Nuggets absolutely do have because they're cutting is awesome, They're finishing is awesome. The guys who do take threes MPJ Jamal really good at it Strauthor when he gets in his minutes. That to me, is an offensive formula that is so dependable because like Luca can have his stretches or he's off as a pull up shooter right and he can have some stretches with turnovers or what have you. He's an amazing, amazing offensive player. Jokic is able to get himself a high percentage shot at will in a way that Luka Dancic is not. He's able to create a high percented shots for his teammates at will, and that to me is just like the ultimate unsolvable problem in the NBA, and it has been for a couple of years. But now I think the offensive personnel around him is better. I do also think that he's better. And that's the thing, because what was the one big difference between Jokic in the twenty twenty three postseason when he had the greatest offensive playoff run ever and last year when he got bounced by the Timberwolves. It's the three point shot. It's entirely the three point shot. He was whatever forty five percent in the twenty twenty three playoffs, and he shot twenty something percent last year and he was two of ten in Game seven, Right, Like.
How was the guy screaming about that all year?
You watch out, guys, you were, you were, and you were correct for that. Now we're talking about a Yokic who's averaging as many points per jump shot as Steph Curry in his best season ever. He's ninety fifth percentile efficiency on jump shots. Like he has been automatic with the pick and pop game. And by the way, his numbers actually sell him short because he attempts like twice as many heaves as anybody else in basketball. I think he still shoots fifty percent on half court threes on the year, So that's unconscious. And that has led to a level of offensive dominance that we haven't even ever seen from Denver in the Jokic era before. When he's on the floor, Denver has a one to twenty nine offensive rating man, and like the previous years have been incredible, that's four and a half points better than last year. It's five points better than the title year the season before. Like, that's really what I want to hammer home. I think this is one of the greatest offenses ever that we're watching, and Jokic is gonna play forty plus minutes in the playoffs, so the non Jokic minutes, like the fact that their offense has been so bad without him, it's a little bit less of a concern. And also with how well Jamal has been playing as of late, he's actually done a decent job of floor raising with those units, and we know that they're going to stagger those men. And then when you have a Yokic lineup without Jamal, now you have ball handling that you didn't have in any previous Yolkic lineups without Jamal, because Russell Westbrook has been that good, and Russell Westbrook has been amazing. He's been amazing, and alongside Jokic, he just does so many things that compliment him in a way that we've never seen from any Yokic teammate. Right Russ's playmaking out of pick and roll, his ability to find him with those pocket passes, to draw extra defenders when he gets dribble penetration, and then find Jokic for finishes, his ability to spot him as a cutter, his ability to run in transition. He's such an elite cutting guard this year, like he has been an offensive weapon for them, And when he starts with Jokic, he averages fourteen six and seven on over sixty percent for shooting, and the Nuggets have an eighteen and six record. So I think that that is a significant difference. The fact that now you have these lineups that can kill you with multiple ball handlers, you can stagger these minutes and at all times still have a really good ball handler on the floor with Jokic, that makes the offense even more potent. Christian Brown, like I said, although you're losing shooting compared to KCP, is clearly the better offensive player because of all the things that he does athletically and with his finishing, his touch, his footwork in the lane is so good. And I do think that intertwined with bringing in Russ and playing Christian Brown more, this team just plays so much faster in there, so good in transition. And in previous years the Nuggets have been like god tier half court offense, but they've never been a team that gets out and run right. They're sort of like the ultimate slow it down, grind you down with their half court offense, and as great as they are at that, like transition offense is just more efficient.
Now.
I would rather have the great half court offense and the playoffs certainly than I would the great transition offense, because the game does slow down. You need to have those great half court shot creaders. But if I can have both compared to just one, give me both. And the Nuggets have both this year. They're an eightieth percentile frequency transition offense and eighty seven percentile efficiency. I even think that MPJ is slightly better than last year. And I think that Jamal can't possibly be worse than he was in the playoffs last year, and he pushed it. He pushed it for a couple months this year where he looked every bit as bad. But like he's really found his form now. Last twenty five games, he's twenty three points per game on sixty percent through shooting fifty to thirty nine to ninety one splits, and obviously he just dropped fifty five the other day. So he's just sort of naturally erratic right as a difficult shot maker. That's what he does but he was so bad for the first couple months, and he was so bad at the end of last year, and now you're talking about a Jamal Murray that you can buy into in a playoff run. I also think the depth in this team is better. Last year, Christian Brown was the only decent bench player that they could turn to in the playoffs. Reggie Jackson was really bad. Justin Holliday was really bad. Right, they did not have a backup center. They still don't have a backup center. But now you have Russ presumably coming off the bench. Maybe it is Christian Brown who comes off the bench, but whatever, a really really good bass ketball player, and then Peyton Watson I do think has significantly improved from last year. It is a unique defensive weapon, and if you put him alongside Jokic, he looks fine offensively. He's not a good offensive player, but like Jokic, can save so many lineup comminations just because of how much easier he makes life on everybody else. Julian Strauther is fine, right, He can knock down shots, he can hit a float, or he can compete defensively. So that's why I think that this offense is the best in basketball. It's better than the team that we saw last year. It's better than the title team offensively, and the one thing you can always say as well, Jamal has to get back to that level. But I don't think Jamal has to get back to that level for this team because Jokic is better and they have more offensive skill In total, Jamal just has to be like at the level he's been at for a couple months now. He has to be a good basketball player. He has to be like a solid second option. So my only question is defense, and they've taken a step back there. I think the downgrade from KCP to Christian Brown is noticeable, but I still think Christian Brown is a good defender. And the Nuggets are sixteenth the defensive rating this year. That's not good. But so many of their bad defensive performances are just like humiliating effort, just completely unseerious stuff. And I do put a good portion of that on Jokic. I put it on everybody, but Jokic just had more bad defensive games this year than he has in any previous season. Like there was the final stretch of the twenty twenty three year when like just for that last month he took his foot off the gas defensively, but like there's been a lot of games where he just doesn't show up on that end this year.
But we know what he can do.
And I'm certainly not the highest on Jokic's defense, although I am the highest on his offense. I could not possibly be higher. I think he's a fine defensive player when he's engaged, but we know that he can be that. We know that he can be the center of a really good defense. We saw it in the twenty twenty three title run, we saw it in last year's regular season, and when this team has had to, they've put together good defensive results because for most of this year before they just started actually reeling off wins like they have been. They're nineteen and four in Yokic's last twenty three games, and they have a one to twenty four point two offensive rating in those games, which is just unbelievable. It has been a light stretch of the schedule, but that's still ridiculous. But for the entire year up until then, their whole bit was Okay, we're gonna fall behind in the first half by fifteen to a shitty team and then we'll actually lock in and we'll win in the second half in a game that's closer than it should be. But they're sixth in defensive rating in the second half, which to me is like when they've locked in, they can defend come playoffs. I think this can be about the tenth twelfth best defense in basketball, and to me, that does put them above the Lakers. I still think Okace is just more talented. I think the okay See defense is that great, and I think that Shay is operating at an unbelievable level offensively. He's had a couple of clunkers over the last week now, but the totality of what he's done this year, it's one of the great offensive seasons that we've seen this century. And when you pair that with this sort of insane defense and getting chet back, all that, Like, I'm definitely higher on Okase than you are, Jason. I do view Okac as a clear top dog. Denver is a very clear number two. The only team that I think has a decent chance of knocking them off, and then it's kind of everybody else.
So while you're on a roll here, what if what would you do to explain away or to play Devil's advocate for the stuff with them against good teams and how they've struggled. They have the sixteenth best record in the NBA against teams in the top ten point differential. Their offensive ratings slips to one fifteen point one when they play against teams in the top ten in point differential, and their defense one to nineteen defensive rating in those games. So just explain talk about why they're not concerned about that.
I mean, I would say the biggest thing by far is that Jokic has missed five of those games. Didn't play against Memphis twice, didn't play against Boston, didn't play against the Clippers, didn't play against Houston. That's kind of the biggest thing. He had his kid at an inopportune time in the schedule. I have no questions about how Denver's offense performs against the best teams in the league, because we've seen it year over year, and I do think that this is the best offensive group that they've put together. So I think if you take away that part of the sample, like what'd you say their record was seven and thirteen, you take awa thirteen one in four in those other games go to six and nine. It's still not great, but it's not enough of a sample to concern me with what I've seen from the team offensively.
No, I get that. And again, like the hardest part with all of this is the Lakers are entirely theoretical calling. You're calling back to a lot of like stuff we've seen, you know, And that's really the hardest thing about it, is like the that's why I'm not ranking the Lakers anywhere. But like when I just think about basketball and the way basketball works, Yeah, a lot of this stuff you talk about with the Lake with Jokich and the simple concept of like can you generate great shots consistently on a possession by possession basis, I just feel the same way. I actually feel like there are more like by the way we've seen saw this again with Minnesota yesterday. Oklahoma City offense has had some absolutely putrid stretches this year. They can like completely fall apart on offense for extended stretches like that to me is like and it's crazy when we it's crazy when we talk about the thunder, how often that gets glossed over, like and not only that it's happened in big games time and time again. It happened in the postseason last year. All their young players shot the bed and couldn't make shots, And like.
It's an unfamiliar not to cut you off, Jason, but it's like an unfamiliar feeling for this team because of so many of these games they've dominated and just been able to coast a victory, so their offense can just fall apart.
M No, I totally agree. Like when I look at when I look in the big picture, Boston is the only team I really see that doesn't have a substantial weakness. Like they can play so many different styles, they have so many different ways they can attack their elite on both ends of the floor. I think Denver, like you talked about the Christian Brown thing, you think Christian Brown's not as good of a defender as KCP. I would agree, as like a drop coverage type of guy. But I actually think Christian Brown has more versatility in the playoffs in terms of the kinds of guys he can guard. Kntavio's cobble Pope gets eaten alive by bigger forwards. He always has. It's been a consistent issue with him, dating back to when he was with the Lakers and he had to guard Kawhi, Like there's KCP can struggle a little bit with that. I actually think that when you get into slow down, surgical, half court environments, Kntavio's cobble pope is just a more reliable offensive player than anybody that can put in that spot. A lot of like my upside for the Nuggets just really comes down to Jokic being at the absolute peak of his powers. But again, like there's as you're looking at everything, I don't think I think Denver's defense is a legitimate weakness that teams can exploit. I think Oklahoma City's offense is a legitimate weakness that teams will exploit. I think Cleveland is like kind of a little bit of both in terms of like different entry points in their offense and different ways that they're excuse me, different entry points in their defense in different ways that their offense can slow down, like Donovan strangling the load and guys not hitting shots, stuff along those lines. Like every team to me has a weakness that except for Boston and then the Lakers. Again, it's just all theoretical at this point, Like I think you'll be surprised Carson and how often they get stops over the course of the next few weeks. They're a better defensive team than people realize. And then again, like I think, I think a lot of times with the Lakers too, the offensive end of the floor is going to be a little bit of a work in progress as they build this thing out, and they may not look like what they're going to look offensively until early April, you know what I mean. So like that my kind of like final statement on it is like I think people are writing off the Lakers based on theoretical weaknesses while overlooking weaknesses that are actually there for these other teams, and there I think that they're in the same tier as Denver and Oklahoma City, and I still kind of feel like Boston's a clear Number one that everyone should be scared of. And to me, I just want to wait and see, like at least a month of basketball before I make some sort of definitive statement about what the Lakers can and can't do.
I'm going to push back just a bit on putting Okac's weakness on par with Denver or LA because like that's the one concern that you have about them, right, can somebody other than Shay can size create a good shot size sure.
Physical size on kind of at every position except Hartenstein.
Sure, but I think they've done such an unbelievable job of compensating for that, like still putting forth a historic defense that to me, at least, the concern that has been more relevant is just what happens when nobody outside of Sha can create a shot for themselves and the spot up shooters are struggling, and like, if Shaye doesn't have an A plus game, then things can get ugly. The thing is, Shay has a whole lot of A plus games. I think he's been as consistent offensively as any player other than Jokic this season. When he's on the floor, they have a one to twenty three offensive rating. They still have a top three clutch offensive rating. There's still a better than eightieth percentile half court offense, I think. So, like that's the thing. Shay is that good and like I think I'm a really really big Shay guy, but he's another one of those guys. It's not Yolkic level. And that's the thing that's where, like I'm not even trying to criticize lukea offensively. The only criticism is. He's not Jokic. He doesn't produce a one twenty nine offensive rating when he's in the half court, like, he's not the combination of like gold.
The last time he was healthy, we definitively called him the second best player in the world. Everybody was like, definitive number two. Mean, yeah, I know you're higher on Yannis than most people.
Well maybe that's true, and I'm also higher than Shaye on most people.
But do you think Shay's better than Luca.
I think it's really really close.
I do think.
Oh god, right now, dude, I don't think Shaye is getting full credit for what he's doing.
What is Luca done in the postseason in his NBA career? What is Luca done in the postseason? Just annihilate basically everyone, the dude is.
Playoff run last year got overrated because he was horrible in the finals. He was pretty terrible against the Clippers, and then he had a really good series and a half. He annihilated Minnesota, which was super impressive, and he had a solid series versus Okay see, but still Shay was clearly better in that series. I think that that was probably the worst playoff basketball that Luca has played. It just so happened to be when he had the best team around him, they could get him through the first round and then in the seven acation.
Gets enough credit for that run.
Either he's fantastic too, he was really.
So I'm not trying to knock Luca. I'm also just saying I think sometimes we do this thing where a guy has the best team around him, so they have the best team result, and we say, oh, that's the best this guy has played, and it's like he was way better in both of the Clippers series back in twenty twenty and twenty twenty one. He was unstoppable in those series. He was not unstoppable in last year's playoff run. He had incredible, incredible stretches. He also had really bad stretches.
Also, SGA got left hanging too in the playoffs.
Yeah, which, to be fair, the Oklahoma City Thunder are not SGA. Right, he can be incredible and they can still lose as we saw last year. I just am really really high on Chet and I think the player that we saw in the year before his injury was a top twenty guy who had a different level of confidence and aggression. Offensively, I don't think that he will be as passive or go cold at as inopportune time as we saw last year.
Jadub I do have to shoots this series, he's.
Been like very very inconsistent, and he's not somebody who creates the easiest offense for himself. He doesn't get to the line very much, so.
Like it takes a lot of bad shots, takes.
A lot of tough, little one legged mid range fallaways, Like he does have a tough shot diet, and he hasn't been super efficient. I think Shay is an A plus half court creator. I think that in totality this offense has still been awesome because of him. Right, elite half court offense, elite clutch offense, all these things, insane offense. When he's on the floor, Chet helps their offense. And the thing that I don't think we can overstate is how insane this defense really is. It's the deepest group of high level perimeter defenders I've ever seen, and now they have these awesome two big looks that they can go to again. They forced turnovers at a rate that we haven't seen in.
Twentye I found this status yesterday. The gap between the number one defensive rating and the number two defensive rating is the same as two and eleven. That's how far That's how far ahead they are away from the field. To me, they're like a combination of the Rockets and a legit contender, meaning like every year there's the young super athletic team that just plays harder than everybody night in a night out, and that always juices net ratings, it juices everything. But it also the thunder also are a championship roster, so it's like it's like kind of a unique combination of that that. Like a great example would be like remember the Caves in two thousand and nine, where it's like they end up winning sixty six games, but they're clearly not a sixty six win team. Like to me, every metric, every everything would tell you Okac's better than Boston this year, but I think Boston's better than OKA See. Like that's a perfect example.
Yeah, I think that Boston is the safer pick. I think that they have been from before the year. I picked OKAC before the year though, And I think the argument four Oka See, which is a very legitimate one, is their defense can give Boston legitimate trouble. I think and Shay is gonna be the best offensive player in that series. Shay's gonna be the best player in that series. And if you give me the best half court creator, best half court operator, and you give me the better team defense, you got a really good chance to win that series. Now, they don't have the shooting in totality that Boston does, and they don't have the mismatch attacking in totality that Boston doesn't like. Clearly both teams have advantages to me, But I think those teams are on very even footing. If the thunder ha gotten Cam Johnson, I think they could have separated, but they didn't in the last Here we are. But yeah, I mean the defense is insane. That's a great stat you mentioned. They're also just number two all time in relative defensive efficiency or number two in the modern era, which is just their defensive rating compared to the league average. They just got barely knocked out of the number one spot, which they've been in, and they've barely had Chet this year.
Yeah.
Yeah, and he's an absolute monster when he's right. So yeah, I do not have those three teams all in the same.
Tier point differental per game. Ever.
Yeah, it's crazy.
Yeah, it's like I would say, I would say Cleveland, Denver, Okay see, and the Lakers are all kind of in the same tier for me. Then, like I even put a gap between them and like the Nicks and the Bucks and like like that group of teams, because I think those teams are all better than them. But the Lakers to me are almost in their own tier right now because we don't know, like even and everything I'm saying, everything you're saying, it's all theoretical at this point, like that we we just don't know. There's a chance there's a non zero chance that they just kick everyone's ass, and then there's a non zero chance that they lose in the first round. So like there's all of that stuff. Is is is in the in the ether here, Like I.
Love Jason tell us they're gonna win the finals.
No, the thing is is I say something super measured, and then that's what they put on the thumbnail. And then and then I get in trouble.
For if somebody fire Paul Farrington for that one, so real quick, what John Steve boat springs right now? Oh yeah, of course he's on vacation. He's always on education. What do you think of the healthy Clippers. Do they factor in? Do you believe in the healthy Clippers. If it's as simple as you don't believe in the healthy Clippers, then I get that. I I why exists as a healthy.
They're a basketball player. They're another team that I think organizational competence and just them being a very well run franchise is kind of propping them up in the regular season context. I've talked a lot about in the beginning part of the season, even dating back to when we talked before the year, about how like, to me, like there's a certain high floor you can establish in the regular season, like if you're well coached, if you have shot creation, and you've got a bunch of dudes that can compete on the perimeter as athletes, Like that's like an automatic fifty wins, you know, or like in forty five to fifty wins if you have that. And like I think Norman Powell being great ended up kind of like boisting or like kind of hoisting that up even further. Yeah, But to me, I don't think they're as good on either end of the floor as the teams at the top the conference. I don't view them as a substantial threat.
Interesting, what are your issues with their defense?
Just some entry points, Yeah, entry points being able to get at them and drop coverage spacing them out. They on offense too, I think they have like a little bit of a ceiling to where like they can pick teams apart in specific matchups of James Harding Cain going and pick and roll and he's got the right type of on ball defender that can't bother him as much. Like they have stretches where they can look really good, but like to me, every single one of their primary shot creators are guys that you can slow down with a certain type of unit. They are another team that's really struggled against the best team this year. Yeah, well, Kawis looked good for stretches, but like, how much are we depending on that? And that's like to be I mean to me, that's.
That's the criticism. That's the question to have about the Clippers, and it's a very very big one. I really like their roster composition healthy, but if we're going in tiers.
Five and fourteen this year against teams in the top ten point differential.
Yeah, they barely had Kawhi don hold it against them, but yeah, I mean, sure they do have a good formula. They're just grind games out defensively and hard and create enough decent shots for them. But I think healthy Kwha as a monster, but he also is kind of a myth, so we'll see. But if I were to put the top of the league in tiers, and I would go, Okay, see Boston still clearly one and two in the same tier, and then I would go Cleveland and Denver are the only team that's in that next tier for me of like the inner title circle, but still clearly there's a gap between them and the top two, but like they've got the best chance but by far of anybody to knock them off. How would you put those top teams into tiers? Logan real quick?
I think I I think I agree with you. I'd have Thunder, Celtics, Cavs, Nuggets, and then like everybody else, I think they're established. But Oklahoma City and Boston are in that top tier.
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Okay, I want to talk about another trade and what we have seen after it, because the Golden State Warriors have been playing some really good basketball as of late since they acquired Jimmy Butler. They're three and one, very nearly four and zero, but lost a very tough game to the MAVs. Jason, do you think that Jimmy Butler is the most underrated star in the NBA today?
Well, certainly at this point with the way that he was being discussed after what happened in Miami. I think he was probably a little overrated in previous years when he was kind of viewed as like this Michael Jordan level, like playoff alpha dog that would just annihilate everybody. But like I've been generally drawn to this type of player and even going to Jason Tatum, who's really won me over over the course of the last couple of years when he started being more of like an offensive facilitator instead of a guy who just takes bad shots, and like, when you have a big, strong forward that can dribble, shoot, and pass well while also being able to guard a bunch of different guys, while also being able to be an effective rebounder. Like when you are like this Swiss army knife that can just plug a bunch of different holes. I think there's just a ton of value within the context of playing as a secondary star. And you know, I look at like, for instance, this Warriors team had like fifteen dudes that could legitimately play rotation minutes to start the year, and it was just stupid because they'd have fifteen dudes that can play rotation minutes and then it's just Steph at the top with like no legitimate, reliable secondary shot creator. And there are so many Warriors fans that are like, oh, well, if we make this trade, we're gonna cut our depth. And it's like, oh, guess what now Brandon Pajemski, who was barely playing or had really inconsistent minutes to start the year, is playing thirty three or whatever minutes night and he's playing some of his best basketball this season. Oh, it turns out Moses Moody can do a reasonable Andrew Wiggins impression and fill that role. Reasonably well. And guess what you have all these dudes playing bigger minutes, playing more consistently well. They still played a ten man rotation last night. Tray Jackson Davis didn't even play Gary Payton the second didn't even play They like, but now you have this legitimate number two next to Steph who can not only run offense when Steph is off the off the floor, but in the groups with Steph, he's like just a menace in the middle of the floor, like slipping out of screening actions, posting mismatches every time they face his zone. Look, he's the guy that they're putting right there even like just as a passing folkrum for off ball Steph action. You got a dunk last night that iced the game off of a little back cut off of a backscreen from Steph. It's just like a massive influx of a bunch of these different traits that like help the team. He's good at getting to the foul line. That's helping this team. He's good at posting mismatches that's helping this team. He's a good defender, good rebounder, he's a good screen or like, he just does so many things well that he's basically just kind of come in here and just patched all these holes that the Warriors roster had before this stretch. And so think, I think, like the I think we gotta be careful with the Warriors in the sense that I still think there's a gap between them and the upper echelon teams in the league. But I thought they were destined for not even making the playing and now I look at him as a team that I'd be shocked if they didn't get at least a first round playoff series. And like, it's the same thing I was talking about earlier with Luca and Lebron, like, try not to overthink it. If it's game three of a one to one series and they have an opportunity to go up to one, and it's ninety five ninety five, and it's Steph and it's Jimmy and it's Draymond, Like that's just a difficult trio of super experienced, really talented guys that are going to be tough to contend with. And so the easiest way I can put it is Jimmy makes some interesting in a way that they weren't interesting before. And so like like and I'm just excited to be able to watch Steph. I know Carson's all over the young guys. Carson's all over the young generation, but I as an old school guy, I'm very excited to watch my one of my favorite players, Steph Curry, play one last playoff series here and see if you can make some noise.
One last playoff series. That's not too He's gonna at the point that I'm saying this year, hopefully he gets multiple playoff series. I don't want to see the Doubs get bounced in the first round. And that's the thing. They're not marching to their death sentence this year. If that's missing the playoffs. And one to answer the question, I do think a lot of people just collectively forget about Jimmy. This is a guy that goes from being a twenty one point per game score in the regular season. This is over the entirety course of his tenure in Miami, from twenty one points per game in the regular season to twenty five in the playoffs. He always ups his game in the playoffs, and I think there's a lot of extra incentive to perform for Jimmy because of the different role that he's gonna be playing. I think expectations have a lot to do with this one. Jimmy's always been a guy that tends to kick his feet up in the regular season and you just relax a little bit, takes his foot off the gas. But the role difference is huge to me because he's going for being the de facto number one. Look shout out Tyler Hero and what he did this season. I'm enamored with what he's been able to do this year as the lead offensive guy. Jimmy was your number one, he immediately steps into a situation as the number two where he doesn't have that burden on his shoulders to be the best player on the floor. And also, like you mentioned Jason, he just has such an all around impact to where he's so complimentary in every phase of the game. Two guys like Stephan Draymond, he just connects everything. And I think Jimmy's not only underrated, but I also just think he's a little bit misunderstood. To go back to the start of the question, I got three guys that I think are in contention with most underrated. I want your guys' opinions on if you think Jimmy is more or less underrated than these guys. The first guy, Trey Young.
I think Jimmy, with the way that he was being talked about, was more underrated.
Behind Finals MVP Jayleen Brown.
People were discussing Jimmy like he was washed, which was insane. So I think the tray still has his avid defenders out there. He's very polarizing. But I wasn't even seeing a ton of Jimmy defenders. I was just seeing people being like, yeah, he's fallen off.
Do you think that's just because of the raw numbers, like the box score numbers in the regular season.
I think that that's definitely part of it. I think that people can sometimes assume more regression has occurred when a guy gets older than actually has Now, Jimmy's not the player that he was a couple of years ago, but he's still really, really good in a clear star when he's on the floor. And then I think, you know, just availability not playing a ton of games, missed the playoffs last year, wasn't healthy for it. And then you mentioned Jalen Brown, Like, if you're contrast it to another guy who I think got overrated, You're playing on the biggest stage, You're playing the best basketball of your life on the biggest stage. Also, to be fair, you're on the best team, with the most talent around you, the best possible offensive situation. It's like total opposite polls in terms of your perception and roles.
So what about Jimmy versus a guy like Jalen Brunson.
I actually think Jalen Brunson is just a tiny bit overrated.
Really, I think Brunson gets underrated by a lot of people. I don't know if people fully appreciate what Brunson does.
I'll say Brunson is properly rated, Okay, I think he's properly treated as like what a top thirteen ish player in the league.
I was gonna say, somewhere in that thirteen to fifteen range. It's just kind of like where he's at. I do think there are Knicks fans who thinks he think he's top ten, and I would vehemently disagree with that.
Yeah, I if I were to have to choose a side, as much as I love Brunson, I might say he's overrated, just because I think like there's been a lot of Brunson over steph talk still Brown.
Okay, I guess maybe we're not listening to the same people. That's that's ridiculous.
Did someone say, did you see people saying that they thought Jalen Brown was better than Jimmy Butler.
I put out a pull yest lot.
I mean, especially before the season started too. I saw that trending, like really heavily.
Well, yeah, because we like ranked our top ten small forwards before the year. I feel like the thing people were most bad about mad about was I think we both had Jimmy over Jalen. I put out the poll today and people are like Jimmy over Jalen in twenty twenty five, Say yeah, man, Jimmy Butler is literally the perfect plug and play star. That's what he's shown as of late. Like his versatility is outstanding to an extent that I don't think we even got to fully appreciate in Miami, because what I was most excited about was like, he's just gonna be another legitimate shot creator, guy who can get himself a bucket, guy who can play make alongside Steph. This team needs that so desperately. That has felt secondary to everything that he's doing as a screener. As a cutter, he has seventeen offensive rebounds in four games. What he's doing attacking this matches very selectively in the post, like.
Getting to the line reliably.
Oh dude, like the gap in like little things like playmaking between him and Wiggins, like I threw the stat out with Colin the other day. But like last year in Miami, Jimmy had fifteen games of seven plus assists Andrew Wiggins has fourteen in his entire career. And then and then the getting to the foul line, like I've already seen him like take games that felt a little out of control and like control the pace just by getting to the foul line and slowing things down. Like yeah, one last thing about Jimmy about Jaylen Brown too, Like to me, the defensive game plan always tells you a lot. It's kind of like the Alex Lenn thing. It was the first thing I said to Logan texted me after Alex Lenn got hired and was like, it was like, who's this guy? Is he good? Like, like tell me the story? And I was like, let's just put it this way. He hasn't played a thousand minutes in a season since since twenty nineteen, and Lebron's already played over sixteen hundred minutes this season. So like that goes to show you how little coaches like actually trust Alex Len to be on the floor, Like coaches tell me a lot, And when every defensive game plan against Boston is let Jalen Brown go one on one, it'll disrupt their rhythm and he won't be efficient enough. That to me is a pretty strong indicator that teams don't necessarily fear Jalen Brown taking control of the offense. Yeah, And I don't think they'd say the same thing about Jimmy.
No, And Jalen's been like really really bad by his standards this year. Right, he can't shoot from mid range, he can't shoot from three. He is still clearly a well below average playmaker. So it's like Jimmy to me, is still the more efficient on ball player. Like he's the guy if it comes down to attack a mismatch, get me a bucket, run, pick and roll. Yes, I want him as a scorer. He's way more efficient. He's a way better playmaker. And I think he's a significantly more versatile offensive player when you talk about the little things, all the different roles that he can fill. And then defensively, I think they're similarly impactful. Jalen's better on ball, Jimmy's better off ball. Jimmy is a hell of an off ball defensive players, So, like that's what has excited me so much. It's his impact in every phase of the game. Jason, I think you said it really well with how he can just like settle a game down getting the line, just his presence, having a high level player like that on the floor. Like my whole family's Warriors fans. You know, I'm from the Bay talking to my friends are Warriors fans, and my brother just texted like the other day, like I feel so safe when the ball is in his hands, and it's like they haven't had anybody like that other than Steph since Kevin Durant. So it is a huge difference. This is a team that was twenty ninth in free throws made. Jimmy comes in, He's getting the line fourteen times a game. In his first couple of games, they're one of the worst teams in the league in terms of getting to and finishing at the rim. Now you have a rim pressure like Jimmy on ball and off ball. As a cutter, he's been running the floor so hard in transition, like just to aggregate experience playmaking IQ feel that you get with him Steph Andre, and then the two way aspect of it where he compliments Steph so well offensively and he compliments Dre so well defensively. I'm really excited about the Warriors, Like there's still absolutely a gap between them and the upper echelon teams just because of raw talent. There's just way more talented teams top to bottom, and they are going to have some very problematic matchups because they basically have to go small. And I love that they've been either going small all the time with Jimmy and Drey, or they've been playing post alongside them, so you still can go five out offensively, Like that just allows Jimmy and Drey to occupy the roles that they've been killing it in as screeners, as rollers, as cutters. Right, it allows Jimmy to pick apart the floor from the middle against the zone look, and it's just Dre and the dunker spot. It's not two non shooters clogging things up, like clearly their best look offensively and then defensively, Jimmy and Ray have been good enough. I really like the Steph Pods Moody Jimmy Dray lineup. I think that they're really competitive defensively there and then offensively it's a really good look. So they've just significantly top their talent level. Pods has been good. Pods frustrates me because sometimes he literally has zero confidence and like sometimes he just kind of shrivels up, but then other times, like you look at how he started the game yesterday at fourteen points very early on, and he's like super confident. And when he's confident and he can make his shots, he does so many good things on both sides of the ball, so many of those little complimentary things. So I do think that Jimmy is at least one of the most underrated. There are probably guys on a national stage who just like people aren't as familiar with, like Evan Mobley. I think christophs Porzingis is extremely underrated if we can give credit to a Celtic star. But like when you consider the asking price for a Jimmy Butler trade, does that under sell how good he is right now by the most Yeah, when you think about the disrespect that he has faced certain people saying no, this guy is over the hill. Yeah, in those ways. I think he probably is the most underrated star in basketball right now.
Last guy I had over Anthony Davis.
Yeah, I mean, any David. It's lots of Lakers every everyone will respect him now.
Could be true. I mean people should be rooting for him.
I don't know. Everyone everyone figured out that Max Christy is good, even though Lakers fans have been screaming it for two months.
The Lakers, it's tough to have a normal conversation. People often hate them very much, or they're Lakers fans. There's so many Lakers fans out there. But yeah, yeah, I mean Ad is underrated. He's pretty fucking underrated. I'm not gonna lie, dude.
It was the I ranked him sixth before the season, and Carson you might have had him a little lower. Do you remember where you had him?
Maybe eighth?
Yeah, Like it was the most gloss over thing in the Luca trade, even though I still agree that the Luca trade was a bad deal for Dallas, just simply because there's a tier that separates them. But like everyone was like, oh, they're getting Anthony Davis. It's like, okay, so you're trading the second best player in the world for somewhere between the sixth and eighth best player in the world and a rock solid three and D prospect at the guard spot, and a very valuable twenty thirty one first round pick. That's valuable even within the context of Luca when you factor in I think they I think they traded the twenty twenty nine but like, yeah, like if Luca loses, yeah, if Luca loses or leaves, or if Luca gets hurt one of these years, it could be a big pick. Like, I like, there was a pretty substantial asset return there. I just you could argue they should have gotten both picks and probably Dalton too, one hundred percent.
But to me, people focusing on the return was overplayed. Was it like the best return they could have gotten. No, they should have gotten more. Like you said, it's crazy they didn't get the second first and that they didn't get Dalton. They should have been able to acquire more assets from the Lakers. But like you can say, yeah, okay, well they should have gone and try to get everything that they can from the Rockets and a ton of future first round picks and a couple of young players. But like, clearly their entire vision was we're gonna try to remain as competitive as we can right now. Like the Hall itself, it's not the best, but it's not the big problem here. The problem is that they traded Luka doncicch pretty much simple, and they traded it and.
Cut off their championship ceiling, cut off.
Their championship ceiling, traded him for a player who is amazing but is not as good as him, clearly, as you said, there's a tear of separation, and is also six years older and also has more health concerns than the stuff that they're trying to play up against Luca. Like it's a catastrophic trade for so many reasons, so many reasons. The process is still insane. Only talking to Lakers or they talk to the Bucks as well, Like there's so much about it to boggles the mind. But the one thing that I saw the most that I'm like, I do not agree with is people asking like Anthony Davis is not a clear top ten player, not a superstar, Like he's a bag of chips to get back, Like that's not what's crazy about this. Everything else is what's crazy about this. Basically, well, we talk about the Mavericks potentially closing their title window with the trade that they made Jason. There's another team that is in much much more dire straits that would have hoped to be a contender before the year, and that is the Philadelphia seventy six ers, who are twenty and thirty four as we speak, and that's with joelmb playing a good bit at of late. Is their window to contend with Joel Embiid over?
It's not over, but whatever opportunity is still there. They're wasting this year by trying to play their guys while they're injured. I just can't figure this out. So it's like, Paul George sucks. Well, we have a reason why Paul George sucks. Paul George sucks because he hyper extended his knee and there's a bone bruise there. And it's like, Okay, then why the hell is he playing in a game when Maxi and Embiid aren't playing? Like what is the upside there?
Like?
Probably? Like and then I think about with Embiid, Like Embiid has been bad in the last month. His efficiency hasn't been there. He's been awful on defense. If you watch himbid on defense lately, Like it's like he's literally looks like a fish out of water, showing up at the level of ball screens, like he's just getting completely fried by everybody in space. The we get a report the other day that he thinks he needs another knee surgery, and I'm like, Okay, if there was a pathway here, the pathway is next October. Embiid's ready to go, Paul George is ready to go. MAXI is a year better and improved. We attack this thing for a regular season, from start to finish. We go make a run and try to win this thing. And all you're doing this year is lessening the opportunity that you're gonna get to October. And all those guys are ready to go. I like, I understand there's some complicated if I don't if I remember correctly, they don't on their draft pick this year. I could be wrong about that.
But it goes to OKAC. But it's top six protected, okay, So.
Like they're with that being the case, Like you could argue if they tank, they have an opportunity to get into that top six. So like there's literally no reason for them to be pushing it the way they are this year. And I heard Darryl Moran is like, oh, we still think we have a chance, and it's like I'm not disagreeing, Like, yeah, if Embiid somehow gets back to form before the end and Paul George somehow gets back to form before the end, I don't want to sit there and pretend like they can't beat anybody. But you have such a narrow, tiny little gap here that you're trying to capitalize on, and while there's this clear opportunity potentially next year when everyone's healthy, I just don't understand what they're doing. I do think it's still there. I think you're I think Tyre's max. He's awesome. He has a legit superpower. I've seen too many games this year where like teams are like, oh shit, Tyrese is trying to drive, let's shut off the basket, and he just still gets to the basket like he is one of the most exceptional driving talents I've ever seen. Paul George is like a souped up Michael Porter Junior on the week side, Joel Embiid as a legit top tier superstar when he's healthy. All of that stuff I believe in, but none of it makes sense unless those guys are actually at the level they need to get to, so like, there's just no in playing Embiid on a bad knee and playing Paul George on a bad knee is not gonna get them to peak for him.
In mid April, Well said, I'll take it a step further, though, Yeah, I think it's over. Even before this season, I always thought it was gonna be a long shot for Philly. You've got the injury prone superstar, you've got an aging third star with a completely overhauled roster. That honestly was probably my big red flag before the season was just there were so many new phases in here. I thought it was gonna be really hard to get everybody to gel and figure out this fit together. And Beat's always had his issues. I've always had my problems with Joel Embiid. I've never had a problem writing off a team let out by Joel Embiid or Doc Rivers for what it's worth. But the big thing is, if Paul George isn't gonna be a star, then yeah, I mean it's just completely over. Like the level that he had he's at is nowhere near what it needs to be. Last year, just last year. This isn't even looking that far ago, he was at twenty three points per game on sixty one percent true shooting. Now he's at sixteen points per game on fifty four percent true shooting. It's the lowest scoring output and least efficient season he's had in his career since his third year in the NBA. He's also apparently dealing I think, with a hand injury on top of the injury that you were talking about with the knee Jason, And the biggest issue in all this, it's the first year of a fifty million dollar contract every year through twenty twenty eight. I don't say this to be mean to Paul George, because man, I loved young Paul George with those pacers. I think every kid that was my age it was getting into basketball around then, loved him going toe to toe with Lebron. I've loved seeing his career trajectory, watching him hit that MVP level in Oklahoma City right, improving as a playmaker with the Clippers, and rounding out his game. This is one of the worst contracts in basketball. Like, there's just not that many guys that have fallen as far as Paul George has from last season to this season, just as a player and as an asset, and so right, because you're talking about Jason getting PG back to full health, getting Empied back to full health, figuring out the dynamics. I'm not saying it's impossible, but what they're doing right now, as you said, doesn't make any sense. And I mean we talk about Jimmy being washed. I do think PG is reaching like actual washed levels of territory, and I sympathize with him and his injuries where he's at. But the seventy six Ers window is contingent on Paul George being a star, and if he's not going to be a star, I mean, they're just cooked over this next four years. And you add in the compounding factors, the embead injury, the spotty you know, rotation and lineup around them. I think the seventy six Ers are in one of the least enviable spots as a franchise can be. They're not in Sun's territory just yet, but we're creeping there.
In my opinion, What do you guys make of the lack of aggression? Have you guys noticed that, like he I when I watched the Sixers, he's barely involved.
Yes, it's crazy. It's crazy. So that's why, like I am fully as concerned as you can possibly be about Paul George. And you mentioned the hyper extensions Jason, But if I'm not mistaken, he did it in the preseason, he hyper extended his need, and then he did early in the year. But it hasn't happened again since then, right, So, like, I don't think so do we think he's just been playing on like a kind of hobbled knee for four months.
Someone came out with the report yesterday. I can't remember who it was, but someone came out with a report yesterday that he's still dealing with a great deal of pain from the bone breus. But then, like then, it's like, why the hell's he playing?
Why is he playing that? I don't know, because he's been a complete shell of himself. Like it's such an insane abrupt drop off in one year that like the injury being a more significant component than I have previously thought would make sense because he's been that bad. I mean, you mentioned just the raw scoring drop off, Logan, but like the aggression that you mentioned, Jason, I mean, there's so many games where he just fades into the background, he doesn't drive, does not attack off the bounce, doesn't get to the line at all. He's taking two point four. Man, there's been a lot of comps like that. Fine, yeah, dude, it's crazy. I looked up his points per possession across all self created shot types, so combining pick and rolls, isolations, and post ups. Last year, he scored one point seven points per possession, which is excellent across all those play types. This year he's at zero point eight nine, which is just not good, just below average. Like if you think about an average half court offense creates like zero point nine to seven points per possession. A Paul George half court self created possession went from an elite option in one year to a bad one, like bad half court offense. And also he's just not doing a lot of it. So it's crazy. And that's why I am inclined to say that he killed their window. Like, unless this really is about the injury and he really bounces back next year, then this is an insane falloff. And I'm just not inclined to be optimistic about a thirty four year old who has looked this bad for an entire year. Like, I think we've just seen regression hit really hard.
I mean, I don't know if this is taking it a step far for you guys, because I know you guys are higher on him than me. I mean, just like, when do we call it quits and when do we finally have the discussion about trading Joel Embiid and just punting for a team that you know in the future with Tyrese MAXI I mean.
I don't There's no way they don't try for one more year, almost out of pride.
Also like hitting that you guys are higher on him to meet, that's crazy. I don't think any of us are remotely high on Embid or ever have been.
I feel like before the season training for it, I've just never been high on because, yeah, Drew Hand was like, how can you possibly do this for a living?
And Rick, well, you guys remember my criteria.
You just know that. I just know that you guys have repeatedly talked about how you think that Embid is one of those kind of guys that could just break through, And I don't know if I've ever felt that way. I guess about Embiid with his I've just been I guess more pessimistic about him, but I get that the going rate isn't going to be high for him. But like, nobody's gonna want this Paul George contract. You'd have to probably package an asset alongside with PG with some picks and take back a horrible like it's immovable.
Right.
It's like a Bradley Beale kind of contract at this point in my opinion. And then and.
Ama and ship without lifeboat.
It's a John Wall contract. It's like John Wall contract. It's like you're trading for a fifty million dollars player that's going to give you nothing.
Yes, complete negative Embiidable is untradable logan. No one is going to trade for this guy. You don't think who's gonna play.
Maybe I think somebody would trade for Embiid without giving up money.
Nico Harrison, give me Anthony Davis.
No, Eight's definitely a better asset than Joel Embiid and Dallas do that.
Nico Harrison's the dumbest personal life. That's the idea.
Why would you give up Luca based on his inability to stay in shape and stay healthy for MB I mean you could argue it didn't make sense to do it. For ad.
Yeah, that was the craziest thing I saw people like trying to compare Luca to Embiid. I'm like, dude, Lucas played in eighty two percent of his possible NBA games, Joel Embid has played in fifty.
Like, would you guys rather have the son's future of the Sixers?
I'd rather have a bullet to the head. I don't know, man, I think.
So let's build it around this if we well, it's certainly the Suns, but like, let's just take it. Let's say that you're you're trading you're trading KD, you're trading Brad Beale, you're trading MB, you're trading Paul George. Who would you rather build around for the next five years, Devin Booker or Tyrese Maxie.
I would rather build around book I think I would.
Too, also because KDE is a more valuable asset. Like, if they decide to flip Kati this summer, they're gonna get.
A lot for yeah, which is what they should do.
In my Yeah, the Sixers are completely and utterly screwed, and you could argue they should trade Maxi because they just have no way. They have no way to pivot around him in the next few years. Yeah, And at what point do you think you're just gonna get him disgruntled and put potentially leave on his own like it, like it, you could argue that that's their ticket out is you get a ship ton of assets for Maxie.
It's true, and like there is a legitimate outcome this year where the Sixers play their guys right through injuries or whatever, they actually try to go out there and win. They fall just short of the play in to the Chicago Bulls. Now, I don't think that'll happen, but you can't say it's impossible because they've still been bad. When Embiid is on the floor exactly, and they lose their own draft pick to the Thunder. All of those things can happen in one year. When this team coming into the year, I thought you are going to be the third best team in the East. They had contending expectations.
Jason, you were spitting earlier. I mean, like, why don't the Sixers just put everybody on ir and just throwing the towel on this year?
I mean, logan, dude, riv said that on pick a side like months ago to us, and I was like, no, you didn't try when I didn't.
Think it was he didn't feel this bad. Past that point. Now that past that point with fifty something games into the season and be like in the last month, they've been getting rolled when Embiad's on the floor, like just rolled.
They're eight and nine games that he plays. They have a negative three point four net rating when he's on the floor. He hasn't been making shots. Their offense, this is the crazy part, has been eight points per one hundred worse when he's on the floor. And he's also defensive season.
But that's the point highlight can't he can't stay on the floor long enough to get into a rhythm because he's so banged up. He says he needs another surgery. Like I am really struggling to see. Like I'm with you, Carson in terms of going for it. So like for instance, like let's say you're you're Golden State, like like you're way down five hundred bottom of the Western Conference standings, you go for it because you're like I can realistically see a universe where Steph and Jimmy and Treymond are all at the peak of their available powers when we get to April, I can I don't even see that as an outcome for Philly. Like your upside is we can beat everybody when everyone's healthy. They're not healthy. You're not going to get them healthy by pushing for it at this point. And I would argue, this is a year where the entire top of the league is stacked, Like there's a version of this where in year two, year three of this, there's a little bit more of an opening because maybe Boston has to shed a guy or okay, See has to extend a bunch of guys and they lose somebody, Like you could argue there's gonna just be a better opportunity, like there are legitimately four awesome teams at the top of the league this year that Philly just cannot beat. So like, yeah, what is the point?
Well, also, like they're seeing those teams early and often they get into the play in I mean, you know, I'd pick them if they're remotely healthy against these other playing teams in the Eastern Conference, sure, God's sakes. Then they're seeing Boston or Cleveland in the first round. Then they're seeing like maybe New York or whichever Boston Cleveland team they didn't face in the first round, Like they're not beating any of those teams, so they're beating themselves up in this slow march to death. It's crazy and big picture to me, the most concerning is Paul George and how bad he's looked on that contract where at thirty seven years old, you're set to be paying him fifty seven million dollars three years from now. Like, I'm just not inclined to be optimistic about a player this old, who looks this bad, who's getting paid this much. But Embiid is also almost thirty one, and he has been a shell of himself this year, And like, I don't disagree Jason that a lot of that is just rhythm, right. He hasn't had a chance to play his way into form. So like, do I think Embide is as bad at this stage as he's looked this year?
No, of course not.
Yeah, But do I have confidence in him returning to the form that he was at last year, which I thought was the best he's ever looked regular season and playoffs? Like, I don't have a lot of confidence in that. Like, things just tend not to get better for the dudes who are on the wrong side of thirty and are always hurt and aren't playing well, and unfortunately that's what Philly is banking on right now. That's not a window that I'm gonna buy into reopening at any point. I really really think they're in a horrific spot.
I agree. I just am saying, like I can't completely write them off, sure, because there's just too much talent there between him and Maxi and the theoretical whatever Paul George can be. But yeah, like I mean, we're we're now talking about an absolute fringe contender for the next few years.
Like they came back next year.
Yeah, they're like the Clippers to me. The Clippers just have more talent, but like they're similar to the Clippers in the sense that, like there's a theoretical version of this that can kind of come together, and maybe they can do it, but it's like you just would be foolish to bet on them over much safer options.
That's fair. I do like the healthy Clippers more because that's the thing. The Sixers, when they have been healthy, have still been bad. They've just been bad this entire year. It's unbelievable how much of a failure this year has been for them. On that positive note, Jason, thank you so much for joining us to talk some basketball. It's always a delight to have you on. Everybody. Go check out Hoops Tonight everywhere on YouTube full episodes, phenomenal, phenomenal basketball content. As I'm sure that you saw today. Any final words Jason before we let you go.
It was good to see you, guys. Logan, I'm sorry that Carson and I got in that fight earlier in the episode. I was joking. I was joking with I was joking with Carson that we took a break earlier, and I was like, I was telling him, like, this is some of the most fun I've had recording a pot in a while, because I like it was we disagreed so much and like it just almost always we're all three on basically the same page. So Carson and I finding like a point of contention, like all the all of a sudden, it turned into I don't.
Think we've ever gotten into it like that. Jason and I have talked a lot of basketball. I don't think we've ever disagreed that strongly on something was it was funn I saw and I said, Okay, let's go, let's good.
Valentine's Day. Spark Man.
Yeah, we're gonna have to get you guys on my show soon to do like some contender rankings or something. I'll reach out in the next couple of weeks. But yeah, I was good to see you guys.
Yeah, great to see you like that would be a joy. So everybody go check out Jason's stuff everywhere. It's awesome, and if you want, you can check out some more of our stuff YouTube, all audio platforms, wherever you get your stuff. You can find all of our full shows, and you can find some of our film breakdown video essay content on YouTube. Specifically, I made a video on Jimmy and just how well he has fit with the Warriors the other day that I thought was good, So you guys can check that out if you want. And you can check out all of our content across social clips from the show, graphics from the show when we do lists and rankings, and all of our trivia content of course that is at nerd sessh on Instagram and TikTok and at nerd Underscore sessh on Twitter. So with that, as always, one last shout out to Jason. I've been Carson Braber, I have been looking Camden and this was nerd Sash