Nerd SeshNerd Sesh - Super Bowl Predictions & Myles Garrett Requests Trade
The nerds break down the upcoming Super Bowl rematch between Patrick Mahomes & the Kansas City Chiefs against Jalen Hurts & the Philadelphia Eagles. They discuss the difference in QB play, why Andy Reid & Steve Spagnuolo really matter for the Chiefs in this matchup, and whether overall talent or clutch execution will win out. Then, they discuss the ideal landing spots for Myles Garrett after he demanded a trade from the Cleveland Browns and argue the Buffalo Bills have to be in on the market.
Timestamps
00:00:23 - Saquon Barkley’s historic season
00:10:17 - Can Jalen Hurts pull his weight?
00:19:06 - The coaching chess match
00:25:16 - Patrick Mahomes’ unparalleled playoff resume
00:50:36 - Super Bowl LIX predictions
00:53:22 - Myles Garrett trade rumors
#Volume
The volume. Oh my god, how could he do that? Bye on.
What Charles Darwin? The nerves is where it's at.
Welcome everybody back into Nerd Sash As always, I'm Carson Bravern. Alongside me is Logan Cansen, and today we are going to be previewing the upcoming Super Bowl matchup, a rematch of course from just two years ago between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles, which was one of the great Super Bowl matchups that we've seen in the history of this league. Really awesome game that of course went to the Chiefs. Now that we're looking round to Logan, what's the first key that really stands out to you in this matchup?
The first key to me is about the injection of superstar talent that Philadelphia has added here. The big difference to me is the introduction of Saquon Barkley and the season that he's having. I mean, this is a Hall of Fame caliber season from Saquon Barkley. He led the NFL in rushing yards with two thousand and five. He also led the NFL and scrimmage yards with two thousand, two hundred and eighty three. He joins the exclusive club of nine running backs in NFL history to run for two thousand yards in a single season, and Carson, I got a couple of trivia times for you. A real quint is only two thousand yard rusher in NFL history to win a Super Bowl?
Terrell Davis baby.
Correct, bang on. So he would be joining some very, very elite company if he was able to cap off this historic season with a super Bowl. And it wasn't only just a historic regular season. This is one of the greatest playoff runs we've ever seen from an individual running back. Saquan is averaging one hundred and forty seven point three playoff rushing yards per game. Right back at your Carson. It's the fifth most rushing.
Yards perceeven and ninety eighty probably cleared that. Oh.
TD in ninety seven is number six, right behind Saquon ninety eight TD is number one. Do you know the three other running backs in the top five?
What's the game minimum here?
Three games minimum?
Okay, so you really did have to make a deep run. Did Rigo get yes?
Dude, good full eighty two Riggins. Another guy got a Super Bowl. The other guy got to the AFC Title Game.
AFC Title Game, but in an error in which that was three games. So that means that you're looking at a bigger playoff field, because for a second I was thinking Earl Campbell maybe could have done.
Honestly, Earl Campbell is like about as warm as you can get to this guy without Eddie George keep going, I mean down to style the team the way those teams won games. Who's the modern equivalent? Oh, Derrick Henry, Derrick Henry in twenty nineteen, or the other guy did cap it off? He had I think the longest run in Super Bowl history before it was broken by Willie Parker.
Is it Franco Harris? Oh?
Not Franco.
Is it Tony Dorset after a set?
This guy had one of the most prolific single seasons by scrimmage yards by a running back ever?
Oh? Is it Marshall Falk Oh?
I thought you were gonna say his name. That's a good guess.
Oh.
Marcus Allen, Marcus Allen in eighty three. Those are the only guys above him twenty nineteen, Derrick Henry nineteen eighty two, John Riggins nineteen eighty three, Marcus Allen in nineteen ninety eight, Tarell Davis in my opinion. Look, I am a football the story and I know people like to push back when we make bodacious, big claims like this. I think it's the most dominant running back season this century. And when you look at other guys, right, I know the Danian Tomlinson has all the touchdowns at the goal line, right, he broke the TV record. Seawan Alexander has the luxury of both. Right, You've got some other two thousand yard seasons from Jamal Lewis and Adrian Peterson. When we look at this in totality, right, not just regular season, when we expand it to regular season and playoffs, I think it's the most dominant running back season of the century. And the only thing, the only one that's close is Derrick Henry because of how singularly dominant he was in the playoffs in dragging Tennessee to that AFC title game. Right. The thing that puts Saquan over the top for me is that he has seven touchdowns of sixty plus yards this year. That is three more than the number two. They had only reached four in this is playoffs in regular season included. To be clear, in this playoff run, Saquan has three sixty plus yard playoff touchdowns. Nobody else has more than three in their entire career, and so when I look at this matchup one, I think no other player has more legacy and career defining implications on the line more than Saquon Barkley. A lot of guys have a lot at stake, right Mahomes, Andy Reid, Jayleen Hurt, Siriani, everybody does. But the guy that I think has the most to gain is Saquon Barkley. And that matchup Saquon and this Philadelphia offensive line versus this Kansas City defensive line front is the first key matchup that I am looking at for this game, because when you look at what this Kansas City front has done to every running back they've faced, it's insane. The most rushing yards by running back this season versus Kansas City is eighty four yards. That's Jerome Ford. Just eight running backs surpassed fifty yards rushing against this football team. This is in a seventeen game season with two more playoff games, and only eight running backs were able to pass that threshold. To me, this is where this game starts and ends is with this battle in the trenches and was Sekwon Barkley in this defensive front.
I do believe James Cook now has that highest marks fair I.
Had the playoffs. I was only regular season including that's true.
That was the best running back performance that we have seen against this Chiefs defense all year, and that was one of the best rushing performances that we've seen against this Chiefs defense all year. By the way, I want to give myself some credit since you didn't give it to me, Logan, for some of my guesses on that trivia time.
I didn't have the full list.
I know, I know, I know. Eddie George four games, four hundred and forty nine yards, three touchdowns, Marshall Falk three games, three seventeen to three touchdowns, Franco three games, three forty three and six touchdowns. So I like to think I was Payton the corners with some pretty good guests above all those guys, and Sequan is about to break the all time record for total scrimmage yards in a season if you include the regular season and the playoffs. He's going to surpass Terrell Davis with an extra game, but with the same number of games as nineteen ninety eight TD. I think that he finished last game like two yards short. So it is truly a historic, all time great season that he's having. And I do think that Saquon doesn't have the total body of work that you're talking about with a lot of these other all time greats, although a lot of that is due to just his completely abysmal situation. And we know that running back is the most dependent of these skill positions on situation, just because if you don't have a decent offensive line, it is going to be exceedingly difficult for anybody to produce, and if you do have a great offensive line, anybody is going to produce. But Saquon is the incredible blend of the elite, elite talent with the elite offensive line in front of him. When you're talking about the best running back seasons that we've seen this century since two thousand, I do think Saquan is in those conversations. The playoff aspect of it does put him over the top. The contender in terms of both regular season and playoff dominance would be like a two thousand and one Marshall Fall who goes to the Super Bowl and gives you, like well over two thousand yards from scrimmage and twenty one touchdowns in the regular season. Then he's dominant in the playoffs too, And there are clearly better regular seasons as amazing as Saquan was. But like I'm taking twenty twelve Adrian Peterson, I'm taking two thousand and six Ladanian Tomlinson. But that combination man of regular season and postseason dominance, I do think that you're probably looking just at him and Marshall Falk since two thousand it's an incredible, incredible season. But will he be able to have the same level of success that he has on average against this Chief's run defense. My inclination is no, You're not going to be able to just run the ball down the Chiefs throats. The Bills did just run the ball pretty darn well as we saw last week, but that is an elite rushing attack and this is an elite Chiefs run defense. Do I think the Eagles will be able to run the ball relatively well, Yes, because I think that they can do that against anybody with their dominance in the trenches and with Saquon. But one difference between Buffalo in Philly in terms of the run game is Buffalo in terms of a grind you down sort of run game has actually been more effective than Philly this year. I think that Philly is ninth in success rate, which means they are still a very good rushing attack in terms of that down to down consistency, but where they have established themselves as like to me one of the three scariest rushing attacks in football with Baltimore and Detroit is in terms of the explosiveness. It is in terms of Saquon as you mentioned, literally having the most explosive season ever in terms of those long rushing touchdowns that has been a big part of their bread and butter in the run game. You think about what they did to the Commanders this past week, right ripping off multiple of those huge explosive runs. The Chiefs only allowed eight rushes of twenty or more yards this entire regular season. That was tied fifth in the NFL, and they only allowed one rush of forty plus yards, which was also tied fifth in the NFL. So do I think Saquan will have a good day. Do I think this run game will have a good day?
Yes?
Do I think that they will have a great day to the point where they can just ride that to a win and pull away and control the ball like they normally like to with a lead in the fourth quarter and suffocate you. No, I don't think that that's how this football game is going to play out. And that's where I think there is more of a burden on Jalen Hurts in this game than there has been in any other game this season.
You have tied me up beautifully, Carson his football game. Look at it, Alie oop from Carson Breber. Can Jalen Hurts make the plays to win for Philadelphia? That's my next big keewhen we're looking at this for the Eagles, And I can't take anything away from what Jalen Hurts did in his first Super Bowl against Kansas City. He a messed three hundred and seventy four total yards, He had four touchdowns, one turnover, a completion percentage of seventy one percent in a passer rating north of one oh three, and he did his job. He led Philadelphia downfield for a game tying touchdown to tie the game at thirty five all with five minutes left. I think it's the best game I've ever seen Jalen Hurts play. It was a near perfect game and the only area he faltered was that fumble that was recovered by Nick Bolton for a touchdown in that game. But the last two years, we've seen Hurts in less than completely optimized situations, and he's tied number two in turnovers over the last two seasons, tied with Josh Allen, just behind Baker Mayfield. But he's been below league average in total yards per game among quarterbacks. He's in that eighteen to twenty range when we're looking at total output from a quarterback in that time period, and I think Hurts is going to have to play a near perfect football game to win this one, and it still may not be enough. And the thing that really concerns me, because I know a lot of people have gotten angry with us Carson with our opinion of Jalen Hurts, and like I said, like I've always stayed consistent with it is one that was such an optimal situation just because he had Shane Steike in a brilliant offensive mind. And I think he max mice Hurts. But I also don't think one season or one game a quarterback makes. Don't get me wrong. I was there with everybody else after that year in that Super Bowl. I had Jalen Hurts as the top ten quarterback because I think it was inarguable to have any other opinion after that season. But we have seen him come back to earth, and I'm not ready to write off this entire season of up and downs with Jalen Hurts because he has one good game against a really bad defense in the Washington Commanders. So what am I saying? It's possible that Jalen Hurts can reach that level that he did on the Super Bowl stage in this first matchup we've seen it happen before. To me, it's not likely. And the most damning numbers to me that really concerned me about Jalen Hurts. This is courtesy of Sharp Football on X on Twitter. This tweet's been doing the rounds as we lead up to the big game. Jalen Hurts versus Pressure in twenty twenty four. This is out of thirty seven qualified quarterbacks ranks dead last, and success rate against pressure ranks dead last, and EPA per attempt versus pressure thirty third out of thirty seven quarterbacks and sack rate thirty two out of thirty seven quarterbacks. In yards per attempt and what does Kansas City hang their hat on disguis pressure, disguise, blitz and being able to get pressure at the most crucial air parts of games and whatever they want. And so when you couple that with how Kansas City can limit and mitigate Saquan's effectiveness on the ground, and when you also couple that with Philadelphia's potential injuries on the offensive line. Now Landon Nickerson is expected to play, Cam Jurgens is also expected to play. They're not going to be at one hundred percent. I just think it adds that extra burden on Jalen Hurts to play that near perfect game, and the tape that we've seen on him this year, we've seen him against pressure and in these big situations. I just can't bank on Jalen Hurts doing that again or pulling his weight the way I expect him to need to, because like I said, I think we need a perfect game from Hurts and that may not even be enough. But like you said, I think this is gonna be the most important game of the year for him and the one where he's gonna have to pull his weight the most, and that to me is as big of a key as getting Saquon going. And it might be a bigger one if Kansas City can xml.
I don't know if I can say that Hurts needs to play a perfect game, but I think that he needs to play a really, really good one because you look at how Philly wins games, and they do it without high level quarterback play being necessary more than anybody else. Because this has been probably the best defense in football this year. It is e leite at every level. It is a lead against the run, it is a lead against the pass, and because offensively they have an elite offensive line and an elite receiving corps and a top two running back in football, in my opinion, the best running back in football this season. So when you are checking all of those boxes and getting A plus grades in all those areas, you don't usually need a dynamic performance from the passing attack. Seen that in recent weeks, man Like the Eagles haven't lost a game that Jalen Hurts started since thereby. But you look a lot of these wins and it's an anemic passing performance. Against the Rams, where they had only sixty five net passing yards when you account for sack yardage loss against the Packers really did very little through the air. Several of their final regular season performances outside of the Steelers game, really limited performances from the passing attack. This game is different because even though I think that this Philly roster top to bottom is the most talented that we have seen in a long time, even more so than last year's Niners, even more so than the twenty twenty two Eagles, the Kansas City Chiefs have the two greatest equalizers in the sport. They have the best quarterback in the sport, and they have the best coaching staff in the sport. And when you come into any game with those two components, it is extremely unlikely that you are going to get blown out, and you are better equipped than anybody to win a close football game, to excel situationally. So it's not that Hurts is gonna have to put the offense on his back for four quarters, right because I do think that Philly will still have some success running the ball. They're just that good at it. But you're going to need Hurts to deliver on third downs. You're going to need Hurts to deliver in the fourth quarter. And that's just where I have my concerns. I do not think that Hurts is an upper echelon quarterback. I do not think that Hurts is a top ten quarterback. He played a really, really good game last week, but I still think that he has clear weaknesses that can be attacked. I think he holds onto the ball for too long. I think that he can process the game too slowly, not be decisive enough, struggle to decipher coverages. And against the Steves Bagnolo defense, that's the scariest thing in the world to me, man, because that's such a huge advantage that Kansas City has in this game. The brilliant coaches on both sides of the ball, but defensively, they're just gonna bring hell fire down upon Jalen Hurts in the big moments, and on average, Hurts statistically fared better against the blitz than he did when he wasn't blitzed this year. But spags blitzes are different, and you mentioned those numbers for Hurts under pressure. It's problematic, and it's especially concerning because as good as Philly's offensive line is, if there's one area that they've shown some issues as of late, to me, it's been in their communication and their precision on blitz pickups. Right, Yes, Hurts has taken his fair share of bad sacks. There's also been a couple of just free rushers unaccounted for, and Jalen Hurts is immediately brought down and wrapped up. That's a major, major problem when you are dealing with the demon that is Steve Spagnolo. But I do think you can also get Hurts to take a couple of bad sacks, and if you get him to try to hold it against the blitz once or twice, if he gets into this chaotic mode where he's trying to make something happen, I think you can force one or two of those big mistakes that he has been avoiding this year. Because you mentioned the turnovers over the last two years, so much of that was last season when he really did uggle with the turnovers. This year he has played much cleaner football, and I think that's the thing that I would give him the most credit for. We have seen the theme of these playoffs is turnover margin. If you win it, you win the game a vast majority of the time. Don't shoot yourself in the foot. That is especially true when you have the Eagles roster. But this is the game in which I think he is going to be most challenged in that respect, and this defense is different because of the psychotic play caller they have and because of the superstar that is Chris Jones, and especially when it comes to third downs, I'm lighting him up. And that's a really big difference in this game. And that is maybe the spot where I feel like you see the biggest difference between these quarterbacks or where that'll have the biggest impact. Patrick Mahomes was exceptional on third down all year. The Chiefs were the number two third down offense. The Eagles were tenth. Not bad, but when it comes to a third and long, the gap is massive to me between these two quarterbacks and between these two offenses, and in the playoffs the Eagles are just thirty six percent on third down. So much of football is decided situationally. Even when you're the more talented team, you also have to execute in those spots. And I think that is a massive advantage for the Chiefs, which is about the quarterback, but it's also about the coaching.
Yeah, I completely agree. I think you hit it on the head and that's where I really worry about Hurts Situationally. I saw another great number courtesy of sharp football in head to head matchups with bags versus Jalen Hurts. The Chiefs disguise their blitz is forty one percent of the time for a guy that already struggles with reading stuff at the line of scrimmage. And again, this is when we're really getting into the because I'm holding Hurts to the standard of, you know, comparing him to the best quarterbacks. He does relative to other you know, the best of the best in the world, and that is where I'm worried, especially situationally, because we've seen the Chiefs. That's how they won the game against Buffalo is situational execution. That's how they've won. So they win all their games, right, they just beat you on the margins in the most crucial parts of the game. And that's where I worry about Philadelphia. More that being said, I do think Jalen Hurts has a skill set that can exploit something about this Chiefs defense, and that is specifically the fact that he is a rushing quarterback. If there is one area that I think you can beat Kansas City with, it is with the legs of your quarterback. You parken Back to Week one, Lamar Jackson goes for the highest rushing total of any player. Cook didn't surpass one hundred and twenty two, did he, So Lamar still holds the mark for best rushing day of any player this season against Kansas City in Week one with a one hundred and twenty two rushing yard performance, Josh Allen went for fifty five. Right, Russell Wilson even surpassed fifty yards. That's where because I do think that Philadelphia is personnel on the outside, right, That's the beauty of Jalen Hurts is because I do think you're right, I say a perfect game, it is less than it was last time because you have AJ Brown, you have DeVante Smith, you have Saquan Now. I do think Piladelphia has a little bit of an advantage when we're looking at skill position talent one on one with some of these corners, right and some of these defensive backs, because AJ Brown is such a monster at winning one on one. Yeah, but I think that I think that if those guys can win one on one and Hurts can just do his job and limit those mistakes, I think he can be good enough. But the one key area that I think Hurts is gonna have to be great in is winning with his legs, choosing when to scramble and get out of the pocket and all game long. And I don't know, for the life of me, I don't get why the Ravens get away from this with Lamar and Derrick Henry. I am spamming read option and I'm just gonna run with that for a little bit in an early part in this game and just see the looks that Kansas City gives me and see if I can set up with that, because it's such a hard like I know, it's so simple, right, just a read option with if you have a good running quarterback and a good running back the best in the NFL this year. It's just great process in my opinion. But while I maybe skeptical of Hurts against certain coverages situationally, I do think that's an advantage that Hurts needs to use to his advantage in this game, and that is his legs. I think that is gonna be a big X factor for me and Jalen Hurts his performance. He can't be hesitant, and I think that's something that he can exploit about this Chiefs defense, because how do you beat the blitz You just go where they're not blitzing you. Go where the pressure isn't and so you can overload a side and then beat them on the back of that. It's definitely easier said than done, but I do think that's one thing that gives me a little bit of confidence about Hurts in this matchup.
That's an interesting point. I will say the Chiefs were incredibly well prepared for every Josh Allen run this past game. The sneak obviously was like the epitome of that, where they overload the left side and theyre aarticipating the snout count perfectly and they just shut down what has been an unstoppable play. But every read option, every design quarterback felt like it was bottled up quite effectively. And that's where I just think when you're dealing with the Chiefs playoff defense and they've had two weeks to prepare in this case, I think that they're going to be locked in. I think that they prepare better than anybody. I think that they are more disciplined and smarter than anybody on that side. So I agree that Hurtz should be willing to use his legs. I don't know that he's gonna run all over this Chiefs defense in.
This matchup too, I'd be remiss. I mean he ran for seventy four yards in that game too. That was vitally important. Everything's easier said than done against the Chiefs defense. But that is an area where I think that he needs to engage himself. But we're in for like you mentioned earlier courses, I mean, we're in for a chess match. I think at the ages too, right, Like you're talking about the matchup, I think the other component of this is the schematics of football. Is Andy Reiden's bags versus Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio. I think we're in for a showdown, you know, And we do this every year, right, We did it with the Niners. We did it with the Eagles two years ago. A hallmark of getting to the big game is having elite coaching, and I think both of these staffs do. But again I lean Kansas City in this department.
There's definitely a gap to me. Our friend Peyton, who is a Chiefs fan, sent some numbers into our group chat that I'm gonna use now. Vig Fangio is Ozero to eight versus Patrick Mahomes. In his career. To be fair, he's had some limited quarterback play in the Broncos years to last year certainly did not play up to the necessary level against the Chiefs to win. He's allowed twenty seven points per game, which is a decent number against the Chiefs, but nevertheless to eight and Kellen Moore versus Spags defenses oh to three and his offenses have put up twelve point seven points per game. So it's not a knock on the Eagles coaching staff. I do think that Fangio is really good. I think that Kellen Moore is okay. I don't think that he's the most creative play caller. I do not think that Nick Sirianni is a particularly good head coach. But again, he's not like the mastermind behind either side of the ball when it comes to play calling. But the chief are just the best ever. It's a pairing of the best offensive mind we've ever seen in Andy Reid with the best defensive coordinator we have ever seen in Steve Spagnolo. That's just a combination that in big games, I am going to bet on time and again to come through. And the other component Logan I talk about the two great equalizers. It's quarterback and it's coaching and the Kansas City Chiefs have the greatest playoff performer in NFL history in Patrick Mahomes. I really do believe that he holds that title over Tom Brady, over anybody else. On a game to game basis, Patrick Mahomes has been the most consistently exceptional playoff performer in NFL history. He is number two all time in total yards per game in the playoffs. He is number three all time in total touchdowns per game in the playoffs. He is number two all time in total touchdown to turnover ratio in the playoffs. I will shout out Josh Allen for being number one in all of those stats, but Mahomes is number one all time in playoff passer rating. He already has the second most playoff wins in a career. He's number one in the Super Bowl era in playoff win percentage. He is seventeen and three in the playoffs. The Chiefs average twenty nine point seven points per game in the playoffs. That is the most of any offense let out by any of these great quarterbacks in NFL history in the postseason. He is the only quarterback in NFL history with a winning record in the playoffs when his defense allows twenty nine or more points. And he has six fourth quarter comebacks in the playoffs, which is already second all time, and it's only three behind Tom Brady, who played easily more than a decade more of playoff football.
I don't remember the exact number, but I think Mahomes is perfect. I think every time he's been no, no.
It was just hilarious. I don't know what you mean by that.
Well, sorry, I know it's a little bit ambiguous glaze in back to the wall scenarios where you need a touchdown to either stay alive or go ahead. I think Brady is like sub fifty percent, and that was number one prior to Mahomes. I think he was aroun like forty five to fifty. I think Mahomes and the and that's just because of how many times Brady's been in that situation. Mahomes is seven of seven. He has literally come through every single time.
Yeah, he to me has just that unmatched combination of like god tear raw ability combined with that perfect clutch execution that we have seen time and again in the biggest moments, winning in spite of whatever his defense does. Right, He's the guy who went out there and won this first Super Bowl against the Eagles when his defense allowed thirty five points. He's the guy who went out there and won the Super Bowl in twenty nineteen when his defense wasn't particularly good. Twenty twenty two wasn't a great defense, Like these last two years are the first two years that he really has had those sort of real upper echelon defenses. It's just an unmatched combination of playoff excellence on a game to game basis. And to me, it's really the floor man because you compare him even to Brady. And this is the crazy stat passer rating not a perfect metric, okay, but Tom Brady's career average playoff passer rating is lower than Mahomes's passer rating in his worst playoff run. That to me, just speaks to the sort of baseline that Mahomes has established that nobody else has touched in the postseason. And that's why he is still QB one. I said that Josh Allen was QB one this season. I think that I was wrong to say that. As much as I love Josh, I think he's an incredibly strong QB two. I think he's one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game. Mahomes is the sort of guy who deserves the benefit of the doubt until decisively proven otherwise. Like I think about how I treated Lebron in twenty nineteen when he was on a bad Lakers team and he was banged up and he didn't have his best season, and a lot of people said, oh, I don't think he's the best player in the world anymore. I think it's Kawhi Leonard, I think it's Jannis whoever. And I said, no, it's still Lebron. And then Lebron came back in twenty twenty and he led a dominant title run. Now, obviously Lebron was older, so maybe you could argue there was more reason to think he had declined. But it's just like goat status. You get the benefit of the doubt. It's your title until it is taken from you. And I didn't think that Mahomes in any way had regressed. That was just like Josh Allen has cleaned up his biggest issue with the turnovers. He has now ascended to another level from where he was at. But Mahomes is just so polished, he's so precise, he's so consistently excellent in the highest stakes moments that I think that he still has that title. Like he has played maybe two bad playoff games ever and the Super Bowl he doesn't get a pass for, but those were really difficult circumstances. He still should have played better, but obviously he was under a ton of pressure and he made some great throws that were dropped, but still not a good game. And then the Bengals AFC title game where he just melted down in that second half. But ever since then, like we're looking now at three full playoff runs. If he caps it off with the super Bowl, where he has been essentially perfect and he faced a better Eagles pass rush than this in twenty twenty two. I think this overall defense is better, but that pass rush was nutty, and he took zero sacks, and he had a one hundred and thirty two pass rating in that game, and he didn't have crazy box score production, but he also used his legs really effectively. Like it was just a flawless Mahomes performance, And we've seen so many of those, and I have the ultimate faith in him, and I just feel like it's so likely that this game comes down to one of those gotta have it fourth quarter drives like we've seen the last couple of years in the playoffs, in the Super Bowl for Mahomes, and there's nobody who's better in those spots.
And there's this thing that I saw with Tom Brady where it was like, you know, Brady was a made man after they beat Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. Right, he had three super Bowl rings very early in his career. Right, they eat the Rams, they beat the Panthers, they beat the Eagles. Brady got this like when he finally reached that mythological status, and it was the repetition of winning those games over and over and over and over again in all those clutch spots that won. It just gives you. It fills you the quarterback that does it, Brady and Mahomes with this confidence that they can always do it, and it fills the rest of your team up with it too. Right, And that's the hump that Josh Allen I think and the Bills are gonna have to get over to win it. I'm not saying that it's not always on the field too. It also is just this mental block of damn man, we cannot get through this ceiling, and the Chiefs have this, for lack of better term, area about them where you do feel like they're always gonna come through. And that is the way I feel about Mahomes. He's been to the Championship Game seven of seven years as a starter. He has been to the Super Bowl now five of seven years as a starter. And the other big number going around about the Chiefs and Mahomes is that he's more likely to make the super Bowl than he is to complete a pass. That's where he's at right now. He's seventeen and three in his playoff career. And I've been said I refuse to bet against Patrick Mahomes on this stage. But I never understood the doubter skepticism about this season. Last season even made more sense to me, and I still picked the Chiefs to win it. All right. Last year made way more sense to pick to pick against them. They were ten and seven, They sputtered to the end, they were dropping games against the freaking Raiders. Like last year, it made sense. This year I didn't get because you still had the best quarterback in football, you had the best coaching staff in football, you had a top three defense in football, and mind you the healthy Chiefs with all their starters went fifteen to one, and somehow people talked themselves into considering this a down year for Kansas City where they lost one game with their starters, and to all the doubts that people had, like the Chiefs have resoundingly answered ninety five percent of them. To me, the five percent is Joe Tooney at left tackle. I trust the wide receivers room more, Kelsey Hopkins, Hollywood Worthy, Juju boom. You're good to go, all right, And they addressed their glaring line issues. Like I said, Tony at left tackle isn't perfect, but it's certainly an upgrade from what they were doing mid season when that was like the chief concern about the Chiefs.
Nice.
Thanks, I just kind of walked into that one.
It's just brilliant. No, you're right man, you're right man. You have every right to get up on your pulpit and speak to the mass. Don't want to you're doing it back to back years. You've been right back to back years and just picking the Chiefs. Well, now they have to get the job done. This they're sitting on the doorstep.
They got better than last year, and last year even after the down year. They made it look easy, and they made it look easy in the regular season. I said it last year during the Super Bowl. But look, man, anytime I can give Mahomes and I don't know what the odds are in this game, but if I can give Mahomes as an underdog, like I just he's seven.
Slightly favored, the Chiefs are slightly favored.
He's seventeen to three. I think Mahomes should be favored, and every single game he plays in I think the chief should for being underdog. I don't think we should ever underestimate them because that's a reputation. And the one thing that I will say about this game that I think you were right on is I do think this is the best team that they face during this run. And that's why it's a new challenge.
I've only been right about one thing. Great sucks to be me.
Well, I know I'm saying that. That is the one point that I agree that's different from those first two matchups. Philadelphia's pass rush was crazy, the Niners were stacked last year. I do think this is the best team that they've faced in this in this chance to threepeat. And that's the other part of history is yeah, and everybody said it. Kansas City will be the first team if they get it done to win three in a row, which is so hard to do in the NFL.
And I think that that's why there is the contingency that picks against the Chiefs. Now, of course there are people who hate the Chiefs, but like my perspective. Well, first of all, I picked the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl before this year. Then I picked them to win the Super Bowl before the playoffs, and then I bailed and I picked the Bills to win that game. But I never doubted this team. I was just like, winning it three years in a row is unprecedented in the NFL. And I looked at the Chiefs and I thought, they're not perfect. And if you're not perfect, can you win over and over again? In this sport where a single random thing can derail your season, right, a drop snap can be the difference in a game. The margins are so small, the sample sizes are so small. It's single elimination. There's so many moving parts. It's never been done before, and here they are. They're on the verge of doing what has never been done before. There is an inevitability right now with them that I don't think we ever felt even with the peak Patriots.
Right.
Yes, they won three and four in the early two thousands, but seven straight AFC title games, five AFC title appearances, and potentially four Super Bowl victories in the Patrick Mahomes era seven years as their starting quarterback. It's unfathomable and it is unprecedented, and I am going to bet on them in this big spot. I do think there are a couple of keys for their offense that need to go right, though it's not just inevitably. O Maholmes is going to be perfect and they are going to win. Like this team can still lose. I would like for them to do me a favor and not run the ball too much because that has been a frustration of mine with the Chiefs offense. I understand why they do it. They want to work their way to second and manageable, third and manageable. It's just not a very effective rushing attack. They were twenty ninth in rushing yards per attempt this regular season, and if you just look at the Bills game, I mean the Chiefs were getting what they wanted through the air right with tremendous efficiency and the Bills really couldn't get any pressure, especially in the first half of that game. It felt like the way that they left the door open was when they're running the ball too much on early downs and it's too predictable and they just have no dynamazon. They have no explosiveness in the run game. I'm not expecting a lot of possessions in this game. This has been a trend all year. Average possessions per game around the NFL are down, and especially among some of the elite teams that we've seen, the Lions, the Eagles, the Ravens, the Bills. These are teams that run the ball a ton, and you include the Chiefs. They don't run the ball quite as much, but they run a solid amount. And basically all of those teams are also elite at taking care of the football not turning it over, which means you're gonna sustain drives, so you're not gonna have necessarily as many chances. Probably neither team is going to put up thirty eight points in this game like the Chiefs did two years ago, just because of the numbers of opportunity. And that's where I don't want you wasting a drive because you ran on first and second down and you got behind the chains. I expect the Chiefs to be more aggressive through the air. Our friend Gabe, who's another Chiefs fan, actually sent me an interesting graph. Nope, not true. It was Joel Moran from Pick Aside who sent me this graph, And it's basically like the trend of a team's expected pass Just how much do they throw the ball relative to the expectation. And I think the standard that they've set and the deeper you get into the year, when you get into the playoffs, the Chiefs trends up. They put the ball in Patrick mahomes hands more as they should. But I do want them to approach this game in that way. And you mentioned the Chiefs receiving corps. It's a pretty damn good group now. Man, It's a group that you came into the year with questions about that we had questions about certainly last year, and then obviously Rashi Rice got hurt, so they were midseason questions. Hollywood Brown was hurt, Worthy wasn't producing all that much early in the year. But with the emergence of Worthy in this second half of the season, with the DeAndre Hopkins move, with Hollywood Brown, who has been pretty effective since he returned, and then obviously you include Travis Kelcey. It's a really good receiving group that I do feel good about. The Eagles are the number one pass defense in football, and they have one of the best secondaries in football. They're number one in terms of net passing yards per attempt allowed, and they've allowed the fewest yards to tight ends the season, and specifically Zach Bond has been one of the best coverage linebackers in football. So I don't think the Travis Kelcey goes off in this game, but I do think that he gets his in a couple big spots. No, no, no, I'm not saying that he's not gonna have a good game. I think he gets his sixty five seventy yards and probably the two biggest third down conversions of the game. I'm just not expecting him to go for one hundred plus like he did against the Texans. I'm not expecting a monster performance, are you.
I'm not betting against big time players in big games. I know what Travis Kelsey does in the playoffs. I wouldn't go as that.
Far, all right, But like he didn't have a monster performance against the Bills. He had nineteen yards.
I'm just not betting against Kelsey.
I don't feel like I'm betting against him. All I'm saying is I don't think he's gonna go for one hundred plus.
But but that does, to I mean, affect my.
Confidence in the Chiefs passing attack because I think dudes around him step up.
There's a wealth of assets. I mean, I think the big key for Philadelphia to meet on defense is one you got. I limited the explosive plays too. I think you got to swallow up the run game. But I'm trying to get Kansas City into third and longs predictable passing situations where I can rush for and be comfortable that I'm dropping back. And let me be clear about something. I don't mean you're never gonna get comfortable against the Patrick Mahomes, but just more predictable passing situations where I can set up my defense to where I'm ready for Mahomes to try to force a ball where they need to be a little bit more desperate. That being said, though, I do think you hit a big key on the head for me with Philadelphia. And that's not only you were talking about this for Kansas City. I think Philadelphia has to be aggressive. You were talking about Kansas City specifically not wasting downs running the ball in early situations, I won't full on aggression. And you're talking about the importance of maximizing your drives, because what these great teams are, they're not only great, it's stopping your offense. These teams are great at sustaining drives, specifically Kansas City. When you were talking about them on third down over and over and over again, just extending drives relentlessly. If you're Philadelphia, ene me, you cannot waste drives. You have to be aggressive on fourth down situations, and I think you just have to be aggressive in general when you're across midfield, not settling for field goals, making sure that you're getting into the end zone. I think you're gonna have to be as aggressive as possible against Kansas City, And if that means potentially setting yourself up for a bigger hole or giving them a short field, I think it's a worthwhile sacrifice. Man. I just if there's one thing more than anything else that this football season has taught me, it is that scared money don't make no money, and you cannot afford to be scared here in the super Bowl. That's been my biggest football philosophy change this year, and I think for Philadelphia to get it done, they got to be aggressive.
Log and I'm so glad that you've seen that scared money don't make money, because it really doesn't. It really doesn't.
It is not the reason the Steelers haven't won a playoff game since twenty sixteen.
Sad but true and also real as hell. So I agree. I think both teams should be aggressive on fourth down. It's the same thing that we talked about last week in the Chiefs Bills game, and that we just Philly too.
I think both of these teams, man.
I agree. I mean, when you are playing an elite football team, it pays to be aggressive because you don't want to squander possessions and you want to say we're also an elite football team and we believe that we can convert in.
This also, not that this is like the most important thing. I do think there's a mental component of it that demoralizes your opponent. It's like giving up an offensive rebound and second chance points in basketball, where you're just sitting there like maybe you worked for an entire shot clock right twenty four seconds. You force a bad shot, they miss it badly, and you don't end the possession and get a rebound. Same thing. It's like we work however long six minute long, methodical drive, they're a midfield or a little past, and we finally get them into fourth down and they convert it. It just it stacks that that meant like that helplessness. Yeah, like feeling in sports, and it's very real. I think it can give you a little bit of an edge there.
I think that's a great analogy to letting up an offensive rebound. You feel like you did your job and then it turns out you didn't, and then they get another chance and they make you pay for it. That's a very very painful feeling for filling on top of being aggressive offensively when we're talking about fourth downs, I do think that they need to run the ball consistently early and often in this game because I really want to see them start strong. This is not a team that is built to play from behind. This is a team that has spent a lot of time with the lead, playing ball, control football how they want to, and that's when they are at their best. Now. They did start a fair share of their games slow early in the year, they've picked that up as of late. I don't want to see them in a deficit against the Kansas City Chiefs where you're putting more and more on Jalen Hurts his shoulders. And the advantage that they do have on top of the run game is just that they have the two most game breaking skill position talents in this game, offensively in Saquon Barkley obviously, but also in AJ Brown, who is like one of the three most intimidating just man to man receivers in football. He can just absolutely obliterate his matchup, and he does have the ability to go out there and really lift the passing attack and shoulder a ton of volume there. And I think that if Philly is going to win this game, it probably relies not just on hurt stepping up, but on either a Saquon or AJ Brown masterclass one of those guys having a sort of signature, career defining performance, which I cannot count out. But I do have more faith in the Chiefs offense right now than I did earlier in the year. I do think that the receiving corps has come together really nicely. They've averaged twenty eight points per game with Hollywood Brown on the field, which is just a big difference. And you see, it's just the respect that another legitimate receiver with his sort of speed demns what that opens up for this team. Xavier Worthy has been a different player as of late. And I will say, Logan, this is an insane value bet that I found on DraftKings. DeAndre Hopkins to have over eleven and a half receiving yards in this game is minus one seventeen. De Hop over eleven and a half yards, man, I mean I.
Could get his alt line for plus at like thirty yards.
Yeah, dude, And like he's been quieter as of late since Hollywood got healthy, since Worthy emerged. De Hop though it's DeAndre Hopkins. He's averaged thirty seven yards per game as a chief. That line to me is just crazy low. Like I actually think that this is going to be more of a Worthy game. I just think he's emerged as the number one receiver in this room. But that's just a catch basically for d Hop. I'm betting on him to get that. But it really is about the totality of this receiving court. That's what I'm betting on producing in this game. The Chiefs offense has impressed me as of late, right putting up thirty two on the Bills. Those are the sort of performances that they've needed to stack, and they've been stacking some of them as of late. There's one more key that I want to mention, logan for both teams, which is just kind of a fundamental key to football games. I think pressure is going to dictate a lot of how this game goes. We said this on Pick A Side. The aspect of the Bills Chiefs matchup that I felt like I miscalculated most, or that I underestimated most when I picked the Bills to win that game was the pressure disparity. I thought that the Bills could be basically even there, maybe even win. It ended up being the Chiefs got double the pressure. They pressured Josh Allen on over forty six percent of his drawbacks. The Bills pressured Patrick Mahomes on twenty six percent of his drawbacks. Just a completely different environment for the quarterbacks to be operating in. And although this Eagles defense is amazing, generating pressure is not where they excel. They were twenty seventh in pressure rate this year, the Chiefs were fifteenth. And when it comes to a big game and you have spags and you have Chris Jones, to me, it at least feels like that rate skyrockets. And we saw this past week with what they did do to the Buffalo Bills. So that's gonna be a big component because if you're gonna beat the Chiefs, you kind of have to do it with overwhelming pressure, right Like the Bucks pressured Mahomes on close to forty five percent of his dropbacks in that Super Bowl. It was a decimated offensive line against an elite pass rush, and that led to statistically the worst Mahomes playoff game that we have seen, in the worst Chiefs playoff game that we have seen. I don't know if this specific Philly defense is going to be able to do that. And again, the Philly defense in twenty twenty two couldn't do it with a pass rush that racked up seventy sacks in the regular season, Whereas I feel like the Chiefs, even against this great Philly offensive line, can generate some of those timely pressures that can rattle Jalen Hurts and trigger some mistakes. That's gonna be key in this game to me who wins that battle, and I'm leading on the side of Kansas City.
I'm leading on the side of Kansas City for a couple of reasons. The biggest one might not even be on their defensive side of the ball, though it might just be the fact that Mahomes is almost unaffected by it sometimes. I mean, because getting pressure on Mahomes is one thing. The second thing is keeping him in the pocket with guys downfield right like, because he's also great at just situationally scrambling and finding, you know, picking his spots because he's not gonna scramble every play. But if the pressure gets home and he can find a lane, he's gone and he's really hard to bring down. The one guy I'm picking on his tuny on that left side. Like, I still don't think it's like a glaring weak spot that you could attack the way the Chiefs got attacked with their third string offensive line against Tampa Bay. But I think it's the weak link of the line, and I would maybe overload pressure on the right side, seeing if I can get something to work. But I also leaned advantage Kansas City. I just noted, the union of a brilliant football coach in great talent is something special, man. And when you get that offensive coordinator and you get that quarterback, when you get a brilliant defensive mind like Spags and all these guys that are committed and they've been together so long. Like, none of these concepts that Spag Spags implements in individual game plans are like new or foreign. This team has been doing this for years now, right, I lean advantage Kansas.
City, and really all I've been waiting for from the Chiefs this year is just to like see that offense get to the level that they need to, which I've never thought that they couldn't do. But now they've done it. They've done it convincingly. They've played their way into that form that they do in these big spots. So I'm gonna bet on their quarterback. I'm gonna bet on their coaching. I'm gonna bet on their situational excellence. I've seen it too many times where against this formula of crazy talented team without the elite quarterback twenty nineteen Super Bowl against the Niners, twenty twenty two Super Bowl against Hertz and Eagles. Even though Herts played a great game in that specific twenty twenty three Super Bowl last year against Perdy and the Niners. The Chiefs have come out on top every time. Every time that coach, normally quarterback, that situational excellent's formula. I'm gonna bet on it again.
And there's been like one play in every game that it's one. You were talking about football, right, Jimmy g misses that deep throat Cawsome Purty in overtime. This is the throat of the end zone that cost them. And look, Jalen Hurts as perfect as a game. He played fumble six yep. One play it could make all the difference against Kansas City.
And it's never been the Chiefs who have made that mistake in those matchups.
I think there's gonna be a tight game, but as you can predict, I'm going to take Kansas City. I think that the first team to win three straight Super Bowls. I'm going to take them to win thirty to twenty six.
Oh wow, same margin I have the Chiefs twenty eight twenty four. I think we save all the legacy conversations for if they actually get it done. But there are going to be some fun discussions to be had about Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid and where they ran all time among their respective peers, because this really is special what we're seeing. It's incredible, this seven year run from them. We've never seen a team just come out of the gates like this with a quarterback. We've never seen a seven year run like this period, and it's a testament to the fact that this is, to me already one of the two greatest dynasties that we've seen in the history of the NFL. And the only reason that it isn't number one is they haven't had the time that the Patriots did with Tom Brady. If they do have that time, and if they stay healthy, they will have to prepare for a post Andy Reid world at some point. I'm not saying that he's gonna die. I'm saying that he's going to retire at some point, and we'll see how they handle that. But they feel incredibly well equipped to keep doing this for quite some time. This ain't the little itty bitty, teeny tiny Bowl. This is Super Bowl fifty nine. Get it on the action at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of Super Bowl fifty nine.
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There is other news in the NFL, though, Logan This week, we've had so much trade chaos in the NBA, the NFL decided, hey, we can get involved in this. Miles Garrett has requested a trade. Where would you like to see him land.
I've got a couple of destinations before we get into this. I just want to applaud the Cleveland Browns for doing what the Cleveland Browns always do and fucking up a good thing. Yep, that's where this starts. You wouldn't have lost Miles Garrett had you not screwed up the quarterback position. And the Browns just can't get right. I mean, I was there when they won zero games. I was there when they won one game. Those teams were so comically bad. Hugh Jackson went one in thirty one as a starter. I had to go on the river because he couldn't win a game right. Those teams started from such a bad spot and they built something amazing, all of this talent. I mean on the offensive line right, rebuilding them back up to being one of the best groups in the NFL last season, getting Nick Chubb on the defensive side of the football, getting Denzel Ward, getting Jeremiah Husu Kiromoa, getting the number one pick, and landing a guy like Miles Garrett like the Browns have done such a phenomenal job of being from at the absolute bottom to becoming a playoff contender, to being right there where they almost beat the Chiefs in the playoffs. Granted Chad Henny was in there, and Henny finished off the deal for him. They were close to beating the Chiefs in the playoffs with Baker Mayfield under center, and more importantly, they had found their quarterback, and they had found their coach and Kevin Stefanski. And unfortunately they saw hold their franchise quarterback down the river. Because Haslam is one of the stupidest people on planet Earth. They just that's the reason that deal went through, and he has to wear that for the rest of his career. The market had dried up on Deshaun Watson because all these allegations had broke. Nobody wanted him.
He was He's not.
A hot commodity any longer. And yet he said, nope, I want to go get him. We're gonna move all of our chips into the table. They just had to not do one of those things. They either had to not give up all that draft capital or they just didn't have to give him all the money, and they did both. Now I'm really hoping for the Cleveland Brown's sake. As much as I hate their franchise, I have friends that like the Browns, so I hope that they do not go right back into a complete irrelevancy. Maybe they get out of that Deshaun money, and maybe there's a glimmer of hope on the other side because Deshaun didn't have his walking boot on right. I don't know the specifics of the contract. If the Browns are lucky they'll be to get out from that money. But the bottom line is you lost one of the most valuable football players in the sport because of your bad decision making. Miles Garrett to me, that's why all these nonsensical trade talks that we see look in basketball, they make sense because players get moved. You don't move off of one of these guys. It's like trading TJ. Watt. It's like trading Chris Jones whatever foundational asset, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, you don't trade that guy. Take notes, Nico Harrison, I'm talking to you. You don't give that guy up right, And so it's just painful that Miles wants out. But like I said, the silver lining, maybe you get off all that DeShawn money, Maybe you get back a boatload of assets. Because that is a silver lining. Miles Garrett is one of the most valuable assets in football. You've gotta think that there's a bunch of teams that would love to go out and get a guy like this. I think he's been one of the handful of best defensive players on the planet for the past five years. I thought he was the best defensive player on the planet this year. Number one is the Buffalo Bills. Carson, Your Buffalo Bills. I can't think of a team that makes more sense if you would look up and down at this team. They've got the star quarterback, they've got the offensive line, they've got the skilled position talent. On defense, you look at two holes defensive line and secondary and if you have an opportunity to go ahead and get this and think about it this way too, right, because we always talk about draft capital. For the Bills, giving up a first round pick is not like the Panthers giving up a first round pick where you're gonna be drafting in the top ten. If the Bills give up a first round pick, it's a pick that is from twenty five to thirty two, all right. I mean that's basically a second rounder. So if I'm Bills, I'm going balls to the walls to get this guy, because you know what, I think Miles is going to be happy to just play on a contender. I think that is his number one thing is I want to go to a team that is ready to win, that has that infrastructure in place. What better place can you offer him than with one of the best quarterbacks in football and Josh Allen. So honestly, I've got four destinations, but number one to me is Buffalo, Like that just makes too much sense to me, and with I think that Buffalo has some depth pieces too, where you it wouldn't just have to be a straight draft capital trade, you know what I mean. I think you could throw in a you a young D lineman or something like that.
Panessa maybe yeah.
Right, like and and it's not going to get you all the value, but you put some picks on top of it, and I think that I think it makes sense for both sides, but especially Buffalo because I think this is their biggest glaring need.
I mean, if you give them two first to third and aja apinessa who's a solid.
Defink And I know people would go, oh, you know in the NBA, you get these packages first. In the NFL, or we're so much more than the NBA.
Well, and just inherently, draft picks are more valuable in the NFL because guys are more ready to produce on those rooky contracts and having those controlled contracts, it's so so valuable. Like if you do pick in the top ten, it's very possible that you are getting a star year one, certainly year two if you pick the right guy and you've got him on like a good size Ricky contract, but certainly not something that compares to what you're gonna have to pay an established star. So it is valuable, and like that's a lot to part with, but I would do it in a heartbeat if I'm the Buffalo Bills, Like it's what they tried to do with Von Miller. They tried to go out and be aggressive and get that star, game breaking edge rusher. Obviously that did not work out, but that's what this defense has been missing. This is a defense that has been conservative in terms of how they've called the game. This has been a defense that when you come down to a big spot, you don't have that pass rusher who can step up and ruin the opposing offense's game plan. You don't have a Chris Jones who got seven quarterback pressures in the first half against the Bills in the AFC title game. I like Greg Russo. I think he's very good. He's not that guy. So if you have an opportunity to get that guy, you do it, period, because you don't have to invest a ton in the offense. Like again, this was the offense that was not expected to be elite by a lot of people coming into the year, and then they became one of five offenses this century to average three points per drive when Josh was on the field, I am trying to get that defensive superstar game breaker. Miles Garrett epitomizes that, and it's definitely painful to part with first round picks. But also the Bills have been trying to draft for some of those star players in the first round, and you look at their last few high draft picks. They draft Dalton Kincaid in the first round. Not loving that right now. This was a very disappointing season from him. Kyrie Elum just sucked from the start, really bad first round pick, and Keon Coleman who was technically the first pick of the second round but effectively a first round or they traded out of twenty eight where Worthy then went. Keon I would say had a mixed bag of a rookie year. But when you look at some of the other receiving talents like Brian Thomas Junior goes before twenty eight, But could you have traded up a little bit? Like I really wanted him as a Bills fan, I know a lot of Bills fans really wanted him. He is a superstar. Worthy at twenty eight I do think definitely looks better and that sort of game breaking speed in the Bills offense could be awesome. But like forget all that could have just taken Lad McConkey. Laden McConkie goes the pick after. I just think they drafted the wrong guy. I think they bet on the wrong skill set. I think that that sort of guy who is not going to really separate, not a super high end route runner, is going to try to make his living on contested catches and whatnot. It's not a path that we often see lead to elite production. Keon's a really good athlete, and like, I'm not writing him off, But would I rather have Lad McConkey today, Absolutely, and he was there for the taking. Would I rather have Ricky Piersall who went two picks earlier, Yeah, I would. I think that he had a more promising rookie season once he was back out there healthy. So Brandon Bean just hasn't shown that ability to be an elite drafter in the first round, where I'm saying, no, it's okay, we don't need to go out there and give up all these resources to get Miles Garrett because you might draft that guy. I'm done with that weighting game. I'm done with gambling on that. To me, this is the safe play, and this is the right play. Go out there, get the best defensive player on the planet that immediately probably makes you the super Bowl favorite. Would you go up to three three firsts.
If that was the asking price, If one more first was the deal breaker, that.
Is a lost.
It is a lot.
When was last time a non quarterback was traded for three firsts that happened?
I don't know if it's ever happened. I mean you just but you also just don't ever see players like Miles Garrett get moved. That's why I ask, I think that whatever the Browns are gonna get back is going to be a hole.
That's true. I mean the closest comparison would be Khalil Mack, who was two firsts a third, and I think that was a majority.
Two first and a second.
Sure I would do that, would I would do that? And honestly, like three first is a lot? And Miles Garrett is twenty nine years old, like he is showing no signs of decline. He is still playing at as high a level as ever. He was the best defensive player in football this year. But how many more years of that true elite, unstoppable level do you have? Probably three? Four? Like it's not going to go on forever. But if it's two first and a second in age up andess I'm doing that, I just think again, the waiting game has to stop. At some point, the defense has to take that leap where you're not letting up thirty five points per game to the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs. This is how you do.
It, exactly exactly. And Miles has also shown what I really like about Miles Garrett, especially in a situation like Buffalo two. You saw how Cleveland utilized him against Pittsburgh, lining him up all over the defensive line. That's my favorite aspect of Miles is that whatever the weak point is on the opposing team's defensive line, if it's left tackle, if it's right tackle, if it's on the interior, you can put Miles wherever he has an advantage on the defensive line, and he can wreck the game. And the reason I use that as an example, right, I'd line him up on the left side against Joe Toney because that's not his natural position, and I think Miles Garrett would eat him alive. And that's a thing that swings a game, right. It's a little thing like that. But I'm going balls to the walls and I'm Buffalo. You're so close and you need that piece to me that's gonna put you over Kansas City and that move does it.
They can't do w in pressure eight man, you can't let that happen. And you don't have a spags, you don't have a genius. So get yourself a game breaker on the field. I think it could make all the difference. I really do, and like being in McDermott have talked about it after the season. They're like, you need those two to three game changers on both sides of the ball. Okay, so you know it, you see it, go make it happen. The opportunity is there right now. This is not an opportunity that is going to come up again. Like you said, Logan, this doesn't happen in the NFL. Elite defensive players don't just request trades. This is only a product of the Browns sort of generational incompetence that only they are capable of. So I desperately want the Bills to go out there and get him another landing spot, though that I do think would be sick. I know you said that you have a few. The one other that really stands out to me is the Washington Commanders because they have a lot of cap that they can absorb and their defense desperately needs to be improved everywhere. But adding a Miles Garrett alone makes such a massive difference for any group. And they're another team where I feel like you don't have to overly invest offensively, Like do I want them to improve a bit on the line, improve a bit in the receiving room, Yes, but Jayden already got them to be a top five offense. It's the defense that needs to be turned around. And I get it they're young, but be aggressive. Now you have the opportunity, you have the resources, you have the cap space, go get them to.
Prove other to all other thirty one teams. I'd also say, you don't want him ended up in your division. True, That's also why I'm going out there, because he could very well end up on one of your division rivals and then you got to play him. So the Commanders are on my short list. And again, I think it's an easy sell. I think you look at any team that is a playoff contender or that has quarterback at least figured out, that has a competent offense, and Miles Garrett will go, yeah, I'm down, So Washington is won. I've also got the Rams written down now the Rams are a little tougher because you know, they went all in as a team that likes to make big swings. That's why I can't rule lay out. They gave up a lot to get Stafford, they gave up a lot to get Jaylen Ramsey right, and and they've recouped most of their assets now right where they're back to having all their picks. It just wrote it would require some more sacrifice, but like I would see him coming in here and being the immediate leader of this defense because of how young they are. It gives you some much needed size on the defensive front. And I just think about a front with Fisk, with Jared Versu and with Miles Garrett, and I'm very excited at that prospect. The other two teams I have written down our division rivals, and I considered green Bay because when I look at green Bay, they've got a lot of young talent that I think a team like Cleveland could be very interested in across the board. More importantly, I just don't think I think they have like a standout guy on the defense on the defensive line to me, right, like I like dyr Alexander. He's on the back end, so you've got your star in the secondary. I just want, you know, a tangible increase to like a star level player. And Green Bay I think is an easy sell. And then Detroit. I think Detroit could be really interesting if they had to asset Well, I'm thinking, dude, you'd have Aidend'd has a Darius Smith, you'd have Miles, you DJ Reader. Their front would.
Be insane McNeil, Yeah, that would be completely unbelievable. I don't know if that makes sense for them, though.
I just kind of want to see Miles and Hutch together because that would also Hey, Pittsburgh, you know, we could pick up the phone. Guys. I've I think Hale would have to freeze over for that to happen.
But I feel like, if you're giving up the sort of the resources we're talking about here, it has to be for a need, and I don't think that the Lions have that need because they already have that sort of game breaker. The Rams also, Like, I just feel they up such a nice pass rush in the aggregate, Like I might be inclined to just say, all right, Verse, all right, Fisk, all right, Kobe Turner, all right, Byron Young, let's keep rolling with this little thing for a while, we got all of you on rookie deals that probably wouldn't be my top destination. I really like the Commanders, I really like the Bills. And another point in favor of Buffalo doing it and being aggressive is they have several extra first rounders this year, not several extra first rounders, several extra picks this year. They have a couple extra fits. They have a couple extra sixths, like leverage it. And maybe it's higher draft picks than that that end up being used. But if you're willing to include multiple or I was gonna.
Either first of your own use those to get up closer into the middle rounds, or you just hold onto those picks and you use them to supplement what you didn't get. And you know, obviously you're not sure that it's top in Superstar, but you can at least draft it that position.
Group at the very least you have the extra picks, and so that should make you more aggressive in using your high end picks to go out there and get a complete game changing talent. Is there anybody else who stands out to you a sure thing? You know, absolute sure thing, absolute sure thing. So the only other opportunity that you could conceive of similar to this would be like if Max Crosby were to become available. But like, this is happening right here, right now, This is a real thing. Miles Garrett is going to be leaving the Cleveland Browns. That is not a party that you want to be left out of. It's certainly not a party. What do you want to be left out of? What do you think about at Miles Garrett party Atlanta? They can like me? Yeah, I mean they need the pall.
I was thinking about need. But honestly, I think Miles and Cleveland you're gonna have to agree on like a destination and again I think a prerequisite for whatever destination he goes to attending, contending and they've got the offense figured out, because I know that has to be frustrating for him.
Absolutely absolutely, all right, everybody, hope you enjoyed this one. The super Bowl is coming in hot and of course we will be here live reacting right after the big Game. But before then NBA trade deadline tomorrow, everything will go final. We already saw another move today. Chris Middleton is out of Milwaukee, Kyle Kuzma is in. I made a TikTok reaction to that, but we'll give more expansive thoughts tomorrow along with our reaction everything else they.
Haven't heard, dude. D'Angelo Russell was found getting up shots outside the Kyle Kuzma bus.
You know what is so funny to me, dude. My dad was just in Dallas and he literally sent me a picture of the Luka Doncic poll at the airport. No way, I swear to God, I swear to God. He was like, looks like they haven't had time to change this. And I was like, Dad, you have no idea how significant this really is. Kyle Kuzma might.
Be getting around here on Twitter.
No, no, no, he has no idea. He just saw, Wow, Luca's still here and it was the Luka Doncic poll. Rip. Man, it's crazy. They are memorializing that man. They are putting flowers outside of the Dirk statue.
Bro. I saw an interview on Dallas TV and this guy they're asking all these fans in the sky goes I think I saw the same one, and I think I'm gonna kill myself. Like I just felt so bad.
Dude, that one was crazy. And then there was another guy in that same interview, who was on one like they saw MAV's employee. He's at get him. It's crazy. It's the most brutal thing that I can think of an organization doing to a fan base outside of moving the team to a different city.
I can't imagine how much money Dallas is gonna lose just by not having Luca Man.
But then think about how much money they're gonna make with that super Casino Baby Wild Wild Stuff. Mass fans, you're in our thoughts. Hopefully you're not Cowboys fans too, because in that case, you are extra in our thoughts, at least my thoughts. Logan the cold hearted prick probably wishes bad things upon you, not me. I just want to see you guys succeed and be happy, cause golly, it's gotta be tough right now. All right, On that note, we have more content, like I said, NBA, NFL across our YouTube channel. I made a video on Shay just a full on glaze fest yesterday where I talked about how he's having one of the best seasons ever. But I thought it was a good video, fun video, and make lots of really interesting numbers there about just how rare so much of the stuff that he's doing is so go ahead and check that out. On our YouTube channel, you can listen to all of our full shows across audio platforms, and you can follow us across social media TikTok, Instagram, at nerd Sesh, Twitter, at nerd Underscore, sess to get some of our immediate reactions to this big news, to get clips from the show, to get graphics from the show when we make lists and rankings, and to see all of our trivia content. Of course, you can also join our discord if you want, please do not if you are a bot, all bots beware, please do not join because we have been getting raided and infested by you machine filth. We don't want you. But if you're a regular guy at chill Guy or Gal, please come on in and talk some sports with us, and you can check out our merch that is also linked in our link tree and at Breakingtea dot com. So with that, as always, appreciate you guys. I've been Carson Braber.
I've been Logan Camden, and
This was nerd Sash
