The volume. No, Oh my god, how could he do that? What Charles Darwin? The nerves is where it's at.

The volume. No, Oh my god, how could he do that? What Charles Darwin? The nerves is where it's at.

Welcome everybody, backs, Nerd Sash as always, I'm Carson Breveren. Alongside me is Logan Camden, and today we are going to be giving our full predictions and breakdowns of the keys in the upcoming NFL Divisional round matchups. We got a hell of au slate in front of us, Logan, and we will just go through these games in the chronological order in which they will occur. So let's start with Texans Chiefs. Here, Logan obviously a strong favorite and a big underdog in this matchup. Neither of us actually expected the Texans to win their wild card game against the Chargers, but here they are. What has to go right for them to have a solid chance at winning this football.

Welcome everybody, backs, Nerd Sash as always, I'm Carson Breveren. Alongside me is Logan Camden, and today we are going to be giving our full predictions and breakdowns of the keys in the upcoming NFL Divisional round matchups. We got a hell of au slate in front of us, Logan, and we will just go through these games in the chronological order in which they will occur. So let's start with Texans Chiefs. Here, Logan obviously a strong favorite and a big underdog in this matchup. Neither of us actually expected the Texans to win their wild card game against the Chargers, but here they are. What has to go right for them to have a solid chance at winning this football.

Game, That's a good question, and to set the table for all of the games they're going to be predicting today. I have set up my keys from the perspective of the underdog like you just set up there. Yeah, what has to go right for the Texans to pull off an upset? So the first key to me with Kansas City, and this is a blanket statement you could make for any game, but it's more important against the Chiefs more than anybody else. You got to get the Chiefs into third and long. This is the number one third down team in football with Patrick Mahomes. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually surpassed them at the end of the year because of Carson Wentz, but with Patrick Mahomes, this was the number one third down team in football. How do the Chiefs do that? They run a lot on early downs. This isn't an explosive Chiefs team, you know, like the twenty twenty team with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelcey and they are just boat racing everybody. Right, We've seen this over the past couple of years. This is a time of possession, ball control, defensive oriented football team. And the way they do that is sustaining long drives and setting themselves up for easier third downs to convert. And the way they do that is running on early downs, getting into third and four, third and five situations. The first key to me with Houston is that you can't let that happen. And obviously it's easier said than done, but I think you've got to get the Chiefs into third and eight, third and nine, third and ten, where those drag routes and those easy quick completions aren't going to be you know, you just got to make life harder on them. It's like taking on a really great scorer of the basketball. You're never gonna be able to fully take away all of his weapons, but you can make life hard on him. And I think the first way to make life hard on Kansas City is to try to get into those third and long situations.

Game, That's a good question, and to set the table for all of the games they're going to be predicting today. I have set up my keys from the perspective of the underdog like you just set up there. Yeah, what has to go right for the Texans to pull off an upset? So the first key to me with Kansas City, and this is a blanket statement you could make for any game, but it's more important against the Chiefs more than anybody else. You got to get the Chiefs into third and long. This is the number one third down team in football with Patrick Mahomes. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually surpassed them at the end of the year because of Carson Wentz, but with Patrick Mahomes, this was the number one third down team in football. How do the Chiefs do that? They run a lot on early downs. This isn't an explosive Chiefs team, you know, like the twenty twenty team with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelcey and they are just boat racing everybody. Right, We've seen this over the past couple of years. This is a time of possession, ball control, defensive oriented football team. And the way they do that is sustaining long drives and setting themselves up for easier third downs to convert. And the way they do that is running on early downs, getting into third and four, third and five situations. The first key to me with Houston is that you can't let that happen. And obviously it's easier said than done, but I think you've got to get the Chiefs into third and eight, third and nine, third and ten, where those drag routes and those easy quick completions aren't going to be you know, you just got to make life harder on them. It's like taking on a really great scorer of the basketball. You're never gonna be able to fully take away all of his weapons, but you can make life hard on him. And I think the first way to make life hard on Kansas City is to try to get into those third and long situations.

I think that's a good key. And I think specifically a lot of this is going to ride on how uncomfortable the Texans defense can make the Chiefs offense, because I think what we've seen on equivocally is that that defense is the strength of this team, and it's a really really good defense. It's like a borderline elite defense. Specifically, they get a ton of pressure, right We've talked about one of the best ed rusher tandems in football is daneil Hunter and Will Anderson. They had the second highest pressure rate as a team this season, and they absolutely dominated the Chargers offensive line this past weekend and consistently had Justin Herbert under the rest. He was pressured on about fifty percent of his dropacks, which just makes any quarterbacks life extremely difficult. Patrick Mahomes is one of the greatest quarterbacks we've ever seen at negating pressure, at dealing with pressure, at finding a way out of it to avoid negative plays and oftentimes create positive plays. But nevertheless, that's how Houston has to first of all, excel in this game with the pressure that they can get after Patrick Mahomes. I also think defensively they got to find a way to force a couple turnovers. This team was top five and takeaways this year. They forced four turnovers this past week against the Chargers. Against that combination of pressure with really good dbs who have really good ball skills. But I think it's exceedingly difficult to force playoff Patrick Mahomes into turnovers into mistakes. We just have seen he takes incredible care of the football, So I don't really think that that's something that the Texans are going to be able to pull off in this game. And then finally on the defensive side, I think that their dbs need to pretty soundly outplay the Chiefs receivers in this game, which is doable. Now. The Chiefs receiving core has gotten better now that Hollywood Brown is healthy. But with Derek Stingley, with Kamari Lassiter, you've got some really, really good corners in that Houston Texan secondary, and so that could be a potential advantage for them. But again, so much of this starts on how much can they keep the Chiefs offense and check make them uncomfortable, maybe force them into a mistake or two. Because I do not see this Houston offense having a dynamic day against this Chiefs defense, and with all of the issues that the Texans offense has had in a vacuum on their own end.

I think that's a good key. And I think specifically a lot of this is going to ride on how uncomfortable the Texans defense can make the Chiefs offense, because I think what we've seen on equivocally is that that defense is the strength of this team, and it's a really really good defense. It's like a borderline elite defense. Specifically, they get a ton of pressure, right We've talked about one of the best ed rusher tandems in football is daneil Hunter and Will Anderson. They had the second highest pressure rate as a team this season, and they absolutely dominated the Chargers offensive line this past weekend and consistently had Justin Herbert under the rest. He was pressured on about fifty percent of his dropacks, which just makes any quarterbacks life extremely difficult. Patrick Mahomes is one of the greatest quarterbacks we've ever seen at negating pressure, at dealing with pressure, at finding a way out of it to avoid negative plays and oftentimes create positive plays. But nevertheless, that's how Houston has to first of all, excel in this game with the pressure that they can get after Patrick Mahomes. I also think defensively they got to find a way to force a couple turnovers. This team was top five and takeaways this year. They forced four turnovers this past week against the Chargers. Against that combination of pressure with really good dbs who have really good ball skills. But I think it's exceedingly difficult to force playoff Patrick Mahomes into turnovers into mistakes. We just have seen he takes incredible care of the football, So I don't really think that that's something that the Texans are going to be able to pull off in this game. And then finally on the defensive side, I think that their dbs need to pretty soundly outplay the Chiefs receivers in this game, which is doable. Now. The Chiefs receiving core has gotten better now that Hollywood Brown is healthy. But with Derek Stingley, with Kamari Lassiter, you've got some really, really good corners in that Houston Texan secondary, and so that could be a potential advantage for them. But again, so much of this starts on how much can they keep the Chiefs offense and check make them uncomfortable, maybe force them into a mistake or two. Because I do not see this Houston offense having a dynamic day against this Chiefs defense, and with all of the issues that the Texans offense has had in a vacuum on their own end.

I completely agree with you. And then x Key I had ridden down for the Texans defense was you have to be disruptive with four pass rushers, right, and I think the Texans are very well equipped to do this. They've got a really great front four. Whoever they're thrown out there, right, Daniel Hunter and Will Anderson is the strength. But the guys on the interior were really effective last week as well. Right, we saw Nico Autrey, Mario Edwards. There's a lot of guys that can be disruptive on this team. It's a real collective effort. Now, I think it gets a little harder. I have immense respect for Joe alt Right and Rashaun Slater, but with Joe Tooney moving to left tackle, the Chiefs have a good offensive line and a formidable group that can match what they do there. But that's got to happen and the other two keys defensively, you touched on this With the wide receivers, I trust Lasseter and I trust Stingley. Against the wideouts, I think you have to limit Travis Kelsey's impact because I think those guys can win one on one and the Texans were really good at this during the regular season. They allowed the eighth fewest yards to tight ends in the regular season, and they have the personnel for the wideouts. The man in the middle, Aziz Al Shaier, the green dot for the Texans, the guy that's most responsible for relaying plays and getting the defense set up. He could potentially miss this game. We're early in this week. We don't know he mispracticed on Tuesday, so that's something to monitor that could affect this aspect of the game. But that's another big key to me. Travis Kelsey is the go to guy, you know. I know that they have Hopkins now, and they've got Worthy, and they've got Hollywood, and they've got Juju, right, Noah, Great, They've got guys that they can go to when the stakes are the biggest. Travis Kelsey is still mahomes go to guy, and I think you have to limit his impact. And my final key for the Texans defense is don't let Mahomes kill you with his legs. I think you touched a little bit on this when we were talking about getting pressure home. In Week sixteen. He had five carries for thirty three yards and a big touchdown run in that game. And that's the final equalizer about Patrick Mahomes and his game and what I think makes him the greatest quarterback I've ever seen and the most talented and the best is you know, we all get caught up in the brilliance of his arm, talent and the throws that he can make outside of the pocket and stuff. Mahomes is also one of the best scrambling playoff quarterbacks ever. And that's the final component of being really deadly and really dangerous as a quarterback is when that pressure gets home, sometimes you can have all the guys covered. And we saw that in Week sixteen and Mahomes can still kill you and get outside of the pocket, and that's so demoralizing for a defense. Like I said, all this is easier said than done for the Texans defense, but I think these are all boxes that you have to check if you're gonna knock off the two time defending champs.

I completely agree with you. And then x Key I had ridden down for the Texans defense was you have to be disruptive with four pass rushers, right, and I think the Texans are very well equipped to do this. They've got a really great front four. Whoever they're thrown out there, right, Daniel Hunter and Will Anderson is the strength. But the guys on the interior were really effective last week as well. Right, we saw Nico Autrey, Mario Edwards. There's a lot of guys that can be disruptive on this team. It's a real collective effort. Now, I think it gets a little harder. I have immense respect for Joe alt Right and Rashaun Slater, but with Joe Tooney moving to left tackle, the Chiefs have a good offensive line and a formidable group that can match what they do there. But that's got to happen and the other two keys defensively, you touched on this With the wide receivers, I trust Lasseter and I trust Stingley. Against the wideouts, I think you have to limit Travis Kelsey's impact because I think those guys can win one on one and the Texans were really good at this during the regular season. They allowed the eighth fewest yards to tight ends in the regular season, and they have the personnel for the wideouts. The man in the middle, Aziz Al Shaier, the green dot for the Texans, the guy that's most responsible for relaying plays and getting the defense set up. He could potentially miss this game. We're early in this week. We don't know he mispracticed on Tuesday, so that's something to monitor that could affect this aspect of the game. But that's another big key to me. Travis Kelsey is the go to guy, you know. I know that they have Hopkins now, and they've got Worthy, and they've got Hollywood, and they've got Juju, right, Noah, Great, They've got guys that they can go to when the stakes are the biggest. Travis Kelsey is still mahomes go to guy, and I think you have to limit his impact. And my final key for the Texans defense is don't let Mahomes kill you with his legs. I think you touched a little bit on this when we were talking about getting pressure home. In Week sixteen. He had five carries for thirty three yards and a big touchdown run in that game. And that's the final equalizer about Patrick Mahomes and his game and what I think makes him the greatest quarterback I've ever seen and the most talented and the best is you know, we all get caught up in the brilliance of his arm, talent and the throws that he can make outside of the pocket and stuff. Mahomes is also one of the best scrambling playoff quarterbacks ever. And that's the final component of being really deadly and really dangerous as a quarterback is when that pressure gets home, sometimes you can have all the guys covered. And we saw that in Week sixteen and Mahomes can still kill you and get outside of the pocket, and that's so demoralizing for a defense. Like I said, all this is easier said than done for the Texans defense, but I think these are all boxes that you have to check if you're gonna knock off the two time defending champs.

Well, and you particularly have to be aware of Pat as a scrambler when you are in the playoffs, right, because he's gonna be selective with his legs in the regular season, He's gonna think big picture, protect his body, minimize the number of hits you get. To the playoffs, though, he goes from a guy who win the regular season averages twenty rushing yards per game to twenty nine rushing yards per game in the playoffs, and he's been more successful. He's been more efficient as a rusher and as a scrambler in the playoffs. So that is a scary dimension that he can unlock and get the Chiefs offense some big plays. And we're talking about everything that Houston has to do defensively, but they also do have to find a way to put up points in this game, and I think that means they get the best version of C. J. Stroud. I think that is what is required of them offensively to win this game. I'm talking about the CJ. Stroud that we saw in the first six weeks of this season, when the team was five to one and he was consistently digging them out of these third and long situations, and he was overcoming an inconsistent run game and just looked like he was really in control of the game and was comfortable. But we have not seen that CJ. Stroud consistently at all over the last twelve games. And you look at his production in totality over those twelve games, He's got eleven touchdowns to twelve turnovers, two hundred and two passing yards per game, six point eight yards per tempt. I thought this past week honestly marked improvement from kind of the baseline that he's been at. But still, you had an inexplicable interception, You had multiple other balls they were off of the hands of defensive players, and really throughout the first quarter and a half, it's completely rattled, completely uncomfortable. He was able to pull it together, but this just isn't a good offense, dude. This team was twenty fourth in points per drive this year. Their offensive line sucks. It's one of the worst in football. Their run game has been inconsistent. They're down two very good receivers with digs in Tank dell Out and CJ himself has been inconsistent, very inconsistent. So it doesn't necessarily take a ton of firepower to beat the Chiefs this year, especially if you have a good defense. I say beat the Chiefs. Only one team has actually beaten the Chiefs, and that was the Buffalo Bills when they played their starters. But to get close to the Chiefs, right, you can be in a game where you only have seventeen to twenty points. But what it does require to actually beat them is some firepower and very consistent execution. And for a team that has been twentieth in terms of third down offense, that has been twenty sixth in red zone offense, and has all of the big holes that I just laid out there, I just don't trust it. I do not trust this off defense to pull up to pull off this upset. I think the defense can mostly do what they need. Again, I don't think they're going to force that big mistake. I don't think that they're going to shut down the Chiefs, but I think they can keep them in check, keep them in the low twenties. But do I think the Texans offense can get to the mid twenties against this defense.

Well, and you particularly have to be aware of Pat as a scrambler when you are in the playoffs, right, because he's gonna be selective with his legs in the regular season, He's gonna think big picture, protect his body, minimize the number of hits you get. To the playoffs, though, he goes from a guy who win the regular season averages twenty rushing yards per game to twenty nine rushing yards per game in the playoffs, and he's been more successful. He's been more efficient as a rusher and as a scrambler in the playoffs. So that is a scary dimension that he can unlock and get the Chiefs offense some big plays. And we're talking about everything that Houston has to do defensively, but they also do have to find a way to put up points in this game, and I think that means they get the best version of C. J. Stroud. I think that is what is required of them offensively to win this game. I'm talking about the CJ. Stroud that we saw in the first six weeks of this season, when the team was five to one and he was consistently digging them out of these third and long situations, and he was overcoming an inconsistent run game and just looked like he was really in control of the game and was comfortable. But we have not seen that CJ. Stroud consistently at all over the last twelve games. And you look at his production in totality over those twelve games, He's got eleven touchdowns to twelve turnovers, two hundred and two passing yards per game, six point eight yards per tempt. I thought this past week honestly marked improvement from kind of the baseline that he's been at. But still, you had an inexplicable interception, You had multiple other balls they were off of the hands of defensive players, and really throughout the first quarter and a half, it's completely rattled, completely uncomfortable. He was able to pull it together, but this just isn't a good offense, dude. This team was twenty fourth in points per drive this year. Their offensive line sucks. It's one of the worst in football. Their run game has been inconsistent. They're down two very good receivers with digs in Tank dell Out and CJ himself has been inconsistent, very inconsistent. So it doesn't necessarily take a ton of firepower to beat the Chiefs this year, especially if you have a good defense. I say beat the Chiefs. Only one team has actually beaten the Chiefs, and that was the Buffalo Bills when they played their starters. But to get close to the Chiefs, right, you can be in a game where you only have seventeen to twenty points. But what it does require to actually beat them is some firepower and very consistent execution. And for a team that has been twentieth in terms of third down offense, that has been twenty sixth in red zone offense, and has all of the big holes that I just laid out there, I just don't trust it. I do not trust this off defense to pull up to pull off this upset. I think the defense can mostly do what they need. Again, I don't think they're going to force that big mistake. I don't think that they're going to shut down the Chiefs, but I think they can keep them in check, keep them in the low twenties. But do I think the Texans offense can get to the mid twenties against this defense.

I don't neither do I. And a big reason of that why you trust the Houston defense is because both of these teams have struggled in the red zone, and I think that is a big key who wins the red zone battle. The Chiefs of the number twenty two red zone offense, the Texans are the number twenty six red zone offense. Both of these teams have struggled to finish drives and put the ball on the end zone and it could be a major deciding factor for Houston more so than Kansas City. I think they've got to win that battle. And then my final component for Houston offensively because I agree with you, this is not a great offense. This is not an elite offense. I wouldn't even go as to far go as far to say this is like a playoff caliber offense. I think this is a below average offense. This year. You gotta beat the Blitz and the way to do that again, I think this is wishful thinking. The way to mitigate in my opinion, because Kansas City has the fifth highest blitz rate in the NFL this season, and what I saw that worked on tape more than anything else in Week sixteen when Houston and Kansas City did battle was getting Stroud out of the pocket on bootlegs and rollouts, and specifically I would try to move the pocket all game on Kansas City. Don't leave Stroud as a sitting duck sitting back that are dropping back because it's been unsuccessful. Get them on the move, rolling out of the pocket, move the pocket, and try specifically to hit those corner and out routes. I thought that was where Houston really attacked the field the best in that original matchup. But I agree with you, I think this is a real uphill battle for Houston. Carson. This is a team that, as you mentioned, with their entire starting lineup only out there, only lost one game. They've got the best home field advantage in the NFL. They are undefeated at home this season, they have now won ten in a row at Arrowhead, and they've allowed all their guys to get healthy. Tamarry Conner is expected to be out there. Trent McDuffie, Jawan Taylor, Chris Jones are all expected to be available for this game. So I'm going to take Kansas City to win this one, twenty nine to twenty.

I don't neither do I. And a big reason of that why you trust the Houston defense is because both of these teams have struggled in the red zone, and I think that is a big key who wins the red zone battle. The Chiefs of the number twenty two red zone offense, the Texans are the number twenty six red zone offense. Both of these teams have struggled to finish drives and put the ball on the end zone and it could be a major deciding factor for Houston more so than Kansas City. I think they've got to win that battle. And then my final component for Houston offensively because I agree with you, this is not a great offense. This is not an elite offense. I wouldn't even go as to far go as far to say this is like a playoff caliber offense. I think this is a below average offense. This year. You gotta beat the Blitz and the way to do that again, I think this is wishful thinking. The way to mitigate in my opinion, because Kansas City has the fifth highest blitz rate in the NFL this season, and what I saw that worked on tape more than anything else in Week sixteen when Houston and Kansas City did battle was getting Stroud out of the pocket on bootlegs and rollouts, and specifically I would try to move the pocket all game on Kansas City. Don't leave Stroud as a sitting duck sitting back that are dropping back because it's been unsuccessful. Get them on the move, rolling out of the pocket, move the pocket, and try specifically to hit those corner and out routes. I thought that was where Houston really attacked the field the best in that original matchup. But I agree with you, I think this is a real uphill battle for Houston. Carson. This is a team that, as you mentioned, with their entire starting lineup only out there, only lost one game. They've got the best home field advantage in the NFL. They are undefeated at home this season, they have now won ten in a row at Arrowhead, and they've allowed all their guys to get healthy. Tamarry Conner is expected to be out there. Trent McDuffie, Jawan Taylor, Chris Jones are all expected to be available for this game. So I'm going to take Kansas City to win this one, twenty nine to twenty.

I'm gonna go lower scoring, but I think that you laid out a really important key with the blitz. And we know that nobody brings more genius, sinister, calculated, timely, terrifying blitzes than Steve Spagnolo. That's just what he does. And CJ has struggled against the blitz. He's twenty fifth in EPA against the blitz. This year. He struggled under pressure. He's thirty first in EPA under pressure. And this offensive line has done him no favors. But he hasn't been able to consistently mitigate those difficult situations in the way that I would have hoped he could have after last season, or in the way that he was early in the year. And at this point, man, I'm just gonna buy in on this Chiefs defense doing their thing. It's still a good group. They haven't been as dominant as they were last year, but you're gonna struggle to run on them if you're Houston. I think McDuffie will give Nico Collins a hard time. And again you've taken out the other really high tier weapons in this Houston offense, and I think Chris Jones can cook versus this offensive line. So just give me Mahomes. Give me the Chiefs offense, which I do still think is better, which I trust more to grind out drives, which I trust more to limit mistakes. I mean, for God's sakes, they still have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid and Travis Kelcey and a group of weapons that has gotten healthier and better. And give me these coaches. Give me Andy Reid, give me spags. I'm gonna go twenty three to fourteen Chiefs. So we actually have the same nine point margin. We're both currently taking a narrow Chiefs cover because they're minus eight and a half on DraftKings. I just don't think this game is gonna be easy for Kansas City. It really never has been this year. Like, I don't see a blowout, I don't see them cruising to victory. But I really see the Texans struggling to score in this game. And I believe in the Chiefs to gut out those drives, to take care of the football, and I think that's all it's gonna take to win this game by a decent margin.

I'm gonna go lower scoring, but I think that you laid out a really important key with the blitz. And we know that nobody brings more genius, sinister, calculated, timely, terrifying blitzes than Steve Spagnolo. That's just what he does. And CJ has struggled against the blitz. He's twenty fifth in EPA against the blitz. This year. He struggled under pressure. He's thirty first in EPA under pressure. And this offensive line has done him no favors. But he hasn't been able to consistently mitigate those difficult situations in the way that I would have hoped he could have after last season, or in the way that he was early in the year. And at this point, man, I'm just gonna buy in on this Chiefs defense doing their thing. It's still a good group. They haven't been as dominant as they were last year, but you're gonna struggle to run on them if you're Houston. I think McDuffie will give Nico Collins a hard time. And again you've taken out the other really high tier weapons in this Houston offense, and I think Chris Jones can cook versus this offensive line. So just give me Mahomes. Give me the Chiefs offense, which I do still think is better, which I trust more to grind out drives, which I trust more to limit mistakes. I mean, for God's sakes, they still have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid and Travis Kelcey and a group of weapons that has gotten healthier and better. And give me these coaches. Give me Andy Reid, give me spags. I'm gonna go twenty three to fourteen Chiefs. So we actually have the same nine point margin. We're both currently taking a narrow Chiefs cover because they're minus eight and a half on DraftKings. I just don't think this game is gonna be easy for Kansas City. It really never has been this year. Like, I don't see a blowout, I don't see them cruising to victory. But I really see the Texans struggling to score in this game. And I believe in the Chiefs to gut out those drives, to take care of the football, and I think that's all it's gonna take to win this game by a decent margin.

Yeah, and this is a good Texans defense. I am intrigued to see how this Kansas City offense looks though, you know, with all these weapons out there, because they definitely looked better. You know, the final three weeks was really really encouraging for this Chiefs offense and potentially kicking into another gear. But I agree with you. I think it's gonna be that kind of game script, slow, methodical, grimy, nasty, playoff football that we've come to expect with this Chiefs team. And there's no team, in my opinion, in the NFL it's better at winning those kind of games.

Yeah, and this is a good Texans defense. I am intrigued to see how this Kansas City offense looks though, you know, with all these weapons out there, because they definitely looked better. You know, the final three weeks was really really encouraging for this Chiefs offense and potentially kicking into another gear. But I agree with you. I think it's gonna be that kind of game script, slow, methodical, grimy, nasty, playoff football that we've come to expect with this Chiefs team. And there's no team, in my opinion, in the NFL it's better at winning those kind of games.

And you mentioned the red zone issues for both teams. I foresee some field goals kicked in this game on the Kansas City side, and I just think Houston is going to have a hard time putting up points. So we largely agree on that one. Let's move on to the next Saturday game. Lions Commanders logan the other one seed hosting the wild card Washington Commanders. What stands out to you as being key in this one?

And you mentioned the red zone issues for both teams. I foresee some field goals kicked in this game on the Kansas City side, and I just think Houston is going to have a hard time putting up points. So we largely agree on that one. Let's move on to the next Saturday game. Lions Commanders logan the other one seed hosting the wild card Washington Commanders. What stands out to you as being key in this one?

This definitely feels like the most imbalanced game of the divisional round. In terms of expectations for me at least, and so I'm looking at this through the scope of the Commanders and everything that's going to need to go right for them. Very similar to my first key with Houston and what they needed to do defensively, I think the Commanders need to do offensively. My first key is getting into third and manageable. Every game Washington is lost this year has been when defenses are able to stonewall them on first and second down and get Jayden into third and ten, third and eleven. Because I'm telling you this Commander's offense is the real deal. I think they can go toe to toe with Detroit in terms of just moving the ball and putting up points. Jayden Daniels isn't the guy that I want to play at this point. I think he is a bona fide top ten quarterback and in third and short third manageable situations, he is money if that is creating with his legs. I mean, look at how he ended the game last week. You couldn't ask for anything more from the Tampa Bay d line on that final possession, and Jayden still manages to make something happen. They're one of the best short yardage offenses in four football, if it's third and short, if it's fourth and short, and so that's what you have to do. Stick to your identity, you know, mix up the offense equal amount of passing and running and trying to balance it out, but getting into third manageable to step one and then step two for me offensively, it's just limiting extra possessions for Detroit. You can't give Detroit any free points. This team's gonna make you pay. And then I don't know, man, the Commander's gotta score on every possession. I just I hate being like nihilistic or cynical about Washington's chances in this game. And you know, football is any given Saturday. Now, well it used to be any given Sunday, but you know, playoffs any given Saturday, any given Sunday. But I just don't really see how this Washington defense slows down or stops Detroit. So I think it's limiting costly plays on offense, getting into third manageable, and trying to capitalize on every possession that you have, because the way I see the Commanders winning this game is very similar to how they won that Cincinnati Bengals shootout. Game. It is all right, Detroit throws a hay maker. All right, I'm throwing my haymaker. It is going to be You just gotta answer fire with fire.

This definitely feels like the most imbalanced game of the divisional round. In terms of expectations for me at least, and so I'm looking at this through the scope of the Commanders and everything that's going to need to go right for them. Very similar to my first key with Houston and what they needed to do defensively, I think the Commanders need to do offensively. My first key is getting into third and manageable. Every game Washington is lost this year has been when defenses are able to stonewall them on first and second down and get Jayden into third and ten, third and eleven. Because I'm telling you this Commander's offense is the real deal. I think they can go toe to toe with Detroit in terms of just moving the ball and putting up points. Jayden Daniels isn't the guy that I want to play at this point. I think he is a bona fide top ten quarterback and in third and short third manageable situations, he is money if that is creating with his legs. I mean, look at how he ended the game last week. You couldn't ask for anything more from the Tampa Bay d line on that final possession, and Jayden still manages to make something happen. They're one of the best short yardage offenses in four football, if it's third and short, if it's fourth and short, and so that's what you have to do. Stick to your identity, you know, mix up the offense equal amount of passing and running and trying to balance it out, but getting into third manageable to step one and then step two for me offensively, it's just limiting extra possessions for Detroit. You can't give Detroit any free points. This team's gonna make you pay. And then I don't know, man, the Commander's gotta score on every possession. I just I hate being like nihilistic or cynical about Washington's chances in this game. And you know, football is any given Saturday. Now, well it used to be any given Sunday, but you know, playoffs any given Saturday, any given Sunday. But I just don't really see how this Washington defense slows down or stops Detroit. So I think it's limiting costly plays on offense, getting into third manageable, and trying to capitalize on every possession that you have, because the way I see the Commanders winning this game is very similar to how they won that Cincinnati Bengals shootout. Game. It is all right, Detroit throws a hay maker. All right, I'm throwing my haymaker. It is going to be You just gotta answer fire with fire.

If you're Washington, I totally agree. I think if Washington wins this game, probably both teams got into the thirties or at least the high twenties, and Washington's offense was just a little bit better. I think it's gonna be brutal for them defensively, but I actually do think that Jade Daniels and Washington can have a pretty good offensive game, especially in terms of matchup. You think about the Lions defensive principles against the pass. What do they do? They blitz at an incredibly high rate, second most in the NFL, and they play the most man coverage in football. How does Jade Daniels do versus the blitz exceptionally Well, He's one of the best quarterbacks against the blitz in football. He was second in EPA against the blitz. He's got a passer rating of one to fifteen, twelve touchdowns, one pick, eight point three yards per attempt. He's nails there. Now. He has been much better as a passer versus zone than he has against Man, and he's going to see a lot more Man against the Lions. But what Man gives him is more opportunities as a scrambler, and I think that he is going to be looking to scramble.

If you're Washington, I totally agree. I think if Washington wins this game, probably both teams got into the thirties or at least the high twenties, and Washington's offense was just a little bit better. I think it's gonna be brutal for them defensively, but I actually do think that Jade Daniels and Washington can have a pretty good offensive game, especially in terms of matchup. You think about the Lions defensive principles against the pass. What do they do? They blitz at an incredibly high rate, second most in the NFL, and they play the most man coverage in football. How does Jade Daniels do versus the blitz exceptionally Well, He's one of the best quarterbacks against the blitz in football. He was second in EPA against the blitz. He's got a passer rating of one to fifteen, twelve touchdowns, one pick, eight point three yards per attempt. He's nails there. Now. He has been much better as a passer versus zone than he has against Man, and he's going to see a lot more Man against the Lions. But what Man gives him is more opportunities as a scrambler, and I think that he is going to be looking to scramble.

Right.

Right.

We saw how willing he was to take off this past week against the Blitz against the Buccaneers, and I think that he can kind of shred the Lions like that. I think he can get outside the pocket. I think he can make plays with his legs, so overall, I actually think he matches up quite well against this defense. And also I think Washington will be able to run the ball decently well. You mentioned how important that is on early downs right, the run game, the screen game, getting them in to third and short so they can keep these drives alive. Teams haven't run the ball against Detroit a lot, but a lot of that is Detroit is leading in every game, and oftentimes they're leading as a lot, so they change the game script where the opposing team has to be a pass first offense. In terms of yards per attempt, Detroit is twenty second against the run, and this is a really really good Washington run games, So I think they'll be able to put up some points and beyond the matchup, Jayden is just a monster dude. I mean, Jayden, especially as of late, has been cooking his last five full games, not counting Week eighteen when he only played a fraction of that game, over fifteen hundred total yards, sixteen touchdowns, four turnovers, one oh nine pass ratings, over three hundred total yards per game, and over three touchdowns per game with less than a turnover a game, right, which, when you consider the offensive burden he's taken on, I'm good with because he's had to take some chances, and more often than not it has paid off. He's been carrying this offense and I do think he can do it again. But again the problem is, I don't think Washington has a prayer in hell of stopping Detroit.

We saw how willing he was to take off this past week against the Blitz against the Buccaneers, and I think that he can kind of shred the Lions like that. I think he can get outside the pocket. I think he can make plays with his legs, so overall, I actually think he matches up quite well against this defense. And also I think Washington will be able to run the ball decently well. You mentioned how important that is on early downs right, the run game, the screen game, getting them in to third and short so they can keep these drives alive. Teams haven't run the ball against Detroit a lot, but a lot of that is Detroit is leading in every game, and oftentimes they're leading as a lot, so they change the game script where the opposing team has to be a pass first offense. In terms of yards per attempt, Detroit is twenty second against the run, and this is a really really good Washington run games, So I think they'll be able to put up some points and beyond the matchup, Jayden is just a monster dude. I mean, Jayden, especially as of late, has been cooking his last five full games, not counting Week eighteen when he only played a fraction of that game, over fifteen hundred total yards, sixteen touchdowns, four turnovers, one oh nine pass ratings, over three hundred total yards per game, and over three touchdowns per game with less than a turnover a game, right, which, when you consider the offensive burden he's taken on, I'm good with because he's had to take some chances, and more often than not it has paid off. He's been carrying this offense and I do think he can do it again. But again the problem is, I don't think Washington has a prayer in hell of stopping Detroit.

I think the one prayer I wrote down that verbatim garslow hope, and pray Jared goffcraps chance. I mean that is the one. I think that's the final component to me of if the commanders are gonna get this done, that Jared Goff gives you three or four picks, and we saw earlier this year that sometimes that's not even enough to derail the Detroit Lions. Yeah, this Lions offense is so good and I expect them to really control the line of scrimmage against Washington if I had to pick, And I like some of the individual personnel on their defensive line, but I think they're just overmatched there. I think the Detroit is really gonna be able to control the line of scrimmage and run the hell out of the ball. And then off of that, I just see the the bread and butter for Detroit working right. I see them overmatched in the secondary. There's so much talent on the outside for Detroit. And again, this is a historically great Detroit offense. They avers thirty three point two points per game this season, number one in the NFL. They just don't stop. But Jaden is a beast, and I think the Commanders is gonna put up points like I don't this Detroit defense. You know, I know they had a good week last week, not last week, excuse me, two weeks ago. I know that Detroit has been better as of late. This is still a team that's allowed a lot of points since they've been beat up, and so I expect the Commanders to be able to move the ball pretty well into score a lot. But again, I just don't see how Washington slows down Detroit. I've got my prediction. Do you have any other keys you want to hit on?

I think the one prayer I wrote down that verbatim garslow hope, and pray Jared goffcraps chance. I mean that is the one. I think that's the final component to me of if the commanders are gonna get this done, that Jared Goff gives you three or four picks, and we saw earlier this year that sometimes that's not even enough to derail the Detroit Lions. Yeah, this Lions offense is so good and I expect them to really control the line of scrimmage against Washington if I had to pick, And I like some of the individual personnel on their defensive line, but I think they're just overmatched there. I think the Detroit is really gonna be able to control the line of scrimmage and run the hell out of the ball. And then off of that, I just see the the bread and butter for Detroit working right. I see them overmatched in the secondary. There's so much talent on the outside for Detroit. And again, this is a historically great Detroit offense. They avers thirty three point two points per game this season, number one in the NFL. They just don't stop. But Jaden is a beast, and I think the Commanders is gonna put up points like I don't this Detroit defense. You know, I know they had a good week last week, not last week, excuse me, two weeks ago. I know that Detroit has been better as of late. This is still a team that's allowed a lot of points since they've been beat up, and so I expect the Commanders to be able to move the ball pretty well into score a lot. But again, I just don't see how Washington slows down Detroit. I've got my prediction. Do you have any other keys you want to hit on?

I mean, basically, just to reiterate what you said, this is a Detroit offense that is amazing. That is one of ten teams this century to average thirty three points per game and one of just four to average three points per drive. The Bills were also in that club until we got the Mitch Trubisky and Mike White Show in Week eighteen. But still it's a really special level of offense.

I mean, basically, just to reiterate what you said, this is a Detroit offense that is amazing. That is one of ten teams this century to average thirty three points per game and one of just four to average three points per drive. The Bills were also in that club until we got the Mitch Trubisky and Mike White Show in Week eighteen. But still it's a really special level of offense.

Yeah.

Yeah.

I mean, in my heart, the Bills are there because when Josh Allen played, they were there. Nevertheless, the Lions are part of that very, very exclusive club, and they're facing a defense that is clearly the worst left in the playoff field. It was twenty third points allowed per drive this year. That particularly sucks against the run. They were thirtieth in yards allowed on the ground in twenty eight than yards per attempt allowed. If you're one of the worst run defenses in football and you're facing the Detroit Lions with their offensive line and with Jamiir Gibbs, that's a very bad formula. You're in for a very bad day, and they also it's just a nightmare. And then they also have one of the worst secondaries in football, and you're going up against this incredibly efficient passing attack that also has explosive playmakers. Obviously, Jamison Williams has been leading that charge in terms of explosiveness this year. And their one flaw, Logan, I mean, you mentioned the one prayer is that their quarterback Jared Goff might give you one every once in a while. But this Washington secondary sucks. They had seven interceptions all year. They were one of the worst defenses in terms of turning quarterbacks over. I just think Detroit will run the ball. It will I think they'll protect Golf. I think they'll hit on their explosives against this secondary. Washington likes to blitz at a pretty high rate. Golf is at his best against the blitz. It just kind of feels like it'll be a stroll in the park for right on offense. So I have them winning thirty eight to twenty four. This to me is the most convincing win of the weekend, and I think that Washington again is gonna be able to hang with them in terms of putting up points, but I just don't see them getting stops.

I mean, in my heart, the Bills are there because when Josh Allen played, they were there. Nevertheless, the Lions are part of that very, very exclusive club, and they're facing a defense that is clearly the worst left in the playoff field. It was twenty third points allowed per drive this year. That particularly sucks against the run. They were thirtieth in yards allowed on the ground in twenty eight than yards per attempt allowed. If you're one of the worst run defenses in football and you're facing the Detroit Lions with their offensive line and with Jamiir Gibbs, that's a very bad formula. You're in for a very bad day, and they also it's just a nightmare. And then they also have one of the worst secondaries in football, and you're going up against this incredibly efficient passing attack that also has explosive playmakers. Obviously, Jamison Williams has been leading that charge in terms of explosiveness this year. And their one flaw, Logan, I mean, you mentioned the one prayer is that their quarterback Jared Goff might give you one every once in a while. But this Washington secondary sucks. They had seven interceptions all year. They were one of the worst defenses in terms of turning quarterbacks over. I just think Detroit will run the ball. It will I think they'll protect Golf. I think they'll hit on their explosives against this secondary. Washington likes to blitz at a pretty high rate. Golf is at his best against the blitz. It just kind of feels like it'll be a stroll in the park for right on offense. So I have them winning thirty eight to twenty four. This to me is the most convincing win of the weekend, and I think that Washington again is gonna be able to hang with them in terms of putting up points, but I just don't see them getting stops.

Yeah, I think there's gonna be fireworks in this game. I've got Detroit forty one to thirty one. Oh my god, I think it's gonna be just up and down.

Yeah, I think there's gonna be fireworks in this game. I've got Detroit forty one to thirty one. Oh my god, I think it's gonna be just up and down.

Highest over of the weekend. I think it's at fifty five and a half right now. Oh, we are both taking tho over. I tend to agree. I think that this is kind of the polar opposite from the Texans Chiefs game. Let's move on to the Sunday slate Logan, We've got Rams Eagles. What stands out to you as being key in this one?

Highest over of the weekend. I think it's at fifty five and a half right now. Oh, we are both taking tho over. I tend to agree. I think that this is kind of the polar opposite from the Texans Chiefs game. Let's move on to the Sunday slate Logan, We've got Rams Eagles. What stands out to you as being key in this one?

First, I just want to say I think the Eagles are vulnerable and there's a chance. You know, I counted out the Rams. I was on the Rams early in the preseason. I got off the Rams very early in the season after the really slow start, and I found my way back in on the RAM after their performance last week. The Eagles forced four turnovers versus Green Bay, and they ended up with seven points off of those four turnovers, and the turnover was a short field where they had to move the ball less than thirty yards. Every other turnover ended in a punt or the end of the game, and so kudos to the Eagles for forcing all those turnovers. But the crux of my argument here is just that I don't trust Jalen Hurts. This is a team last week then went two of eleven on third down. I hate to pick on the guy. He is. I have the least amount of faith in Jalen Hurts of any remaining quarterback in the playoff field. I have Golf over him, I have Jaden over him, everybody they have, even CJ. Stroud, the guy had He went thirteen of twenty one for one hundred and thirty one yards versus Green Bay, and thankfully they didn't need him in that game. So that scares me. The key to me first, obviously, we saw these teams face off in Week twelve. LA is still my underdog in this game, even though I do think Philly is vulnerable. You've gotta limit Saquon Barkley's effectiveness. And I really worry about the Rams in this department. This is a very small Rams defensive line versus a very dominant in big Eagles offensive line. When they faced off in the first matchup, he went for two hundred and fifty five rushing yards in three hundred scrimmage yards. So again a theme of today I said easier said than done. This is the most easier said than done thing on the slate for any of these games that can't happen. If Saquon does that, the game is over. Effectively, it doesn't matter what the Rams do. If Saquon gets going like that, you can kiss your Super Bowl chances goodbye. The second key though, in the way that I think you can limit Saquon's effectiveness. You gotta get up early on the Eagles, force them to change their game plan and to throw the football the less that Saquon can touch the ball, and it's possible. This is a feasible thing for the Rams. And while I highlight this is a key. The Eagles, with all of their glory and how great this defense and the offensive line is and all the skill position talent that they have, this is the slowest starting team in the National Football League. Out of all thirty two teams. There was no team that got out slower out of the blocks than the Eagles. I think they were dead last in points on opening drives. So that's the key. I think the Rams got to come out and they have got to get up early, score on the first drive and try to limit how much the Eagles can utilize Saquon Barkley. Again, easier said than done, but I think you got to change the game plan. You have to make Jalen Hurts win this football game. If it's on the ground and on the back of this offensive line and Saquon Barkley, I think the chances of the Rams winning this football game go down exponentially.

First, I just want to say I think the Eagles are vulnerable and there's a chance. You know, I counted out the Rams. I was on the Rams early in the preseason. I got off the Rams very early in the season after the really slow start, and I found my way back in on the RAM after their performance last week. The Eagles forced four turnovers versus Green Bay, and they ended up with seven points off of those four turnovers, and the turnover was a short field where they had to move the ball less than thirty yards. Every other turnover ended in a punt or the end of the game, and so kudos to the Eagles for forcing all those turnovers. But the crux of my argument here is just that I don't trust Jalen Hurts. This is a team last week then went two of eleven on third down. I hate to pick on the guy. He is. I have the least amount of faith in Jalen Hurts of any remaining quarterback in the playoff field. I have Golf over him, I have Jaden over him, everybody they have, even CJ. Stroud, the guy had He went thirteen of twenty one for one hundred and thirty one yards versus Green Bay, and thankfully they didn't need him in that game. So that scares me. The key to me first, obviously, we saw these teams face off in Week twelve. LA is still my underdog in this game, even though I do think Philly is vulnerable. You've gotta limit Saquon Barkley's effectiveness. And I really worry about the Rams in this department. This is a very small Rams defensive line versus a very dominant in big Eagles offensive line. When they faced off in the first matchup, he went for two hundred and fifty five rushing yards in three hundred scrimmage yards. So again a theme of today I said easier said than done. This is the most easier said than done thing on the slate for any of these games that can't happen. If Saquon does that, the game is over. Effectively, it doesn't matter what the Rams do. If Saquon gets going like that, you can kiss your Super Bowl chances goodbye. The second key though, in the way that I think you can limit Saquon's effectiveness. You gotta get up early on the Eagles, force them to change their game plan and to throw the football the less that Saquon can touch the ball, and it's possible. This is a feasible thing for the Rams. And while I highlight this is a key. The Eagles, with all of their glory and how great this defense and the offensive line is and all the skill position talent that they have, this is the slowest starting team in the National Football League. Out of all thirty two teams. There was no team that got out slower out of the blocks than the Eagles. I think they were dead last in points on opening drives. So that's the key. I think the Rams got to come out and they have got to get up early, score on the first drive and try to limit how much the Eagles can utilize Saquon Barkley. Again, easier said than done, but I think you got to change the game plan. You have to make Jalen Hurts win this football game. If it's on the ground and on the back of this offensive line and Saquon Barkley, I think the chances of the Rams winning this football game go down exponentially.

Yeah, you would have to really jump out because basically the only game all year when Saquon didn't get fed on the ground was the Buccaneers game when they literally fell behind twenty four to nothing, Like it has to be in blowout mode. I think for the Eagles to turn away from Saquon because they know what the strength of this offense is, and it is him and it is this dominant run game. The Eagles have been a very slow starting team in totality on the year, but over the last handful of weeks they've actually gotten a lot better on that front and they've started putting up some points in the first quarter. So I just think it's a pretty long path to the Rams winning this game because Philly is so much more talented, And specifically, this Eagles defense is just awesome. They're huge upfront, they're great against the run, their secondary is great. But specifically, I wonder how well the Rams can run the ball in this game. And I wonder, but really I worry because they were thirty first in rushing yards per a TEMP this year. Over the last three weeks they've run for two hundred and forty two total yards. That's not something that you like walking into a game against this Eagles defensive front and this Eagles defense, and in terms of the passing game, they have Matt Stafford. That's a huge box to check. I wonder, though, if they get the version of Cooper Cup that they need to win a game like this, because I believe in Stafford, I believe in Puka. Puka has been a dog. But a huge strength of this offense over the last couple of years has been we've got the elite quarterback and we've got two really high end receivers in Cooper Cup as of late, just has not been that guy. Last four games, He's got eighty two total yards, and the offense has struggled in that time as Cup has struggled. The offense over those last four games with Cup on the field is averaging sixteen points per game. I'm not counting the defensive touchdown that they scored against Minnesota this past week, So those are really the roots of my concern. Stafford, I believe in to ball out. We mentioned this last show, but in six playoff games with the Rams, he's at two hundred and ninety four passing yards per game, eight point seven passing yards per attempt, he seventy most completion rate.

Yeah, you would have to really jump out because basically the only game all year when Saquon didn't get fed on the ground was the Buccaneers game when they literally fell behind twenty four to nothing, Like it has to be in blowout mode. I think for the Eagles to turn away from Saquon because they know what the strength of this offense is, and it is him and it is this dominant run game. The Eagles have been a very slow starting team in totality on the year, but over the last handful of weeks they've actually gotten a lot better on that front and they've started putting up some points in the first quarter. So I just think it's a pretty long path to the Rams winning this game because Philly is so much more talented, And specifically, this Eagles defense is just awesome. They're huge upfront, they're great against the run, their secondary is great. But specifically, I wonder how well the Rams can run the ball in this game. And I wonder, but really I worry because they were thirty first in rushing yards per a TEMP this year. Over the last three weeks they've run for two hundred and forty two total yards. That's not something that you like walking into a game against this Eagles defensive front and this Eagles defense, and in terms of the passing game, they have Matt Stafford. That's a huge box to check. I wonder, though, if they get the version of Cooper Cup that they need to win a game like this, because I believe in Stafford, I believe in Puka. Puka has been a dog. But a huge strength of this offense over the last couple of years has been we've got the elite quarterback and we've got two really high end receivers in Cooper Cup as of late, just has not been that guy. Last four games, He's got eighty two total yards, and the offense has struggled in that time as Cup has struggled. The offense over those last four games with Cup on the field is averaging sixteen points per game. I'm not counting the defensive touchdown that they scored against Minnesota this past week, So those are really the roots of my concern. Stafford, I believe in to ball out. We mentioned this last show, but in six playoff games with the Rams, he's at two hundred and ninety four passing yards per game, eight point seven passing yards per attempt, he seventy most completion rate.

He's got the most playoff passing yards per game of any quarterback in NFL history.

He's got the most playoff passing yards per game of any quarterback in NFL history.

He does It's him, Kurt Warner and Dan Foul some absolute passing yard as monsters. And he's got thirteen touchdowns to three picks in his Rams playoff career. Like he is a dog, and he can drag this offense to a respectable baseline. And I trust him in a big game to control the game. Right, He's just a gamer and he's got so much experience. But when everything around him outside of Puka Nakua is as inconsistent as they have been for this Rams offense, and you're facing an elite defense, that's a tough formula. But to me, the Rams chances to win this game rest on Stafford doing enough, him just being clearly by so far the better quarterback, and Phillies offense struggling. I don't think this is going to be an explosive day for Phillies offense because I really do not feel good about their passing attack at the moment after what we saw this past week. The Rams pass rush is legit, but you mentioned what happened last time these teams met. The Rams are vulnerable against the run. They're twenty sixth in rush yards per a time allowed, and Philly ran for three hundred and fourteen yards on him the first time they play, Saquad just absolutely shredded them. So, even though I'm not anticipating that again in a game like this, which I do think is gonna be a grind, because both teams are flawed offensively in their own ways, what's the most reliable path to offense? It is give Saquon the ball, trust your offensive line to get push, and I think that's gonna work well enough for Philly. I don't think they're gonna go crazy. I don't think they're gonna hang thirty seven on him again. Because I'm worried about Hurts right now in the passing attack, but I don't think he needs to go crazy. That's what makes this team different. That's what makes this team special. They're just so stacked that they can win without elite quarterback play.

He does It's him, Kurt Warner and Dan Foul some absolute passing yard as monsters. And he's got thirteen touchdowns to three picks in his Rams playoff career. Like he is a dog, and he can drag this offense to a respectable baseline. And I trust him in a big game to control the game. Right, He's just a gamer and he's got so much experience. But when everything around him outside of Puka Nakua is as inconsistent as they have been for this Rams offense, and you're facing an elite defense, that's a tough formula. But to me, the Rams chances to win this game rest on Stafford doing enough, him just being clearly by so far the better quarterback, and Phillies offense struggling. I don't think this is going to be an explosive day for Phillies offense because I really do not feel good about their passing attack at the moment after what we saw this past week. The Rams pass rush is legit, but you mentioned what happened last time these teams met. The Rams are vulnerable against the run. They're twenty sixth in rush yards per a time allowed, and Philly ran for three hundred and fourteen yards on him the first time they play, Saquad just absolutely shredded them. So, even though I'm not anticipating that again in a game like this, which I do think is gonna be a grind, because both teams are flawed offensively in their own ways, what's the most reliable path to offense? It is give Saquon the ball, trust your offensive line to get push, and I think that's gonna work well enough for Philly. I don't think they're gonna go crazy. I don't think they're gonna hang thirty seven on him again. Because I'm worried about Hurts right now in the passing attack, but I don't think he needs to go crazy. That's what makes this team different. That's what makes this team special. They're just so stacked that they can win without elite quarterback play.

I completely agree. And you mentioned the last time they faced off the only other thing that I think the Rams need to do well. Another thing is the Rams need to do better. Gotta be better on third down. And the first time they matched up, they went oher of eight on third down. On those eight third down, Stafford was sacked five of those times. And so you're talking about Cup and Pooka. Those guys have got to get open. They got to get open early. And this Eagles defense is just hellish. And that's that's basically the crux of why I'm so confident is I like the Rams offense a lot. Stafford and Puka and Kup can cause problems for a lot of defenses in their personnel, I just don't see it, you know, I think Philly can match up with these guys one on one. I think they've got elite secondary play, elite linebacker play, elite front play. Like the defense is just awesome. They've got home field advantage, they've got the more talented roster, and they molly wopped La in Week twelve. All that being said of Courson, I got a weird feeling, man, I got a weird feeling that this is gonna be a really close game.

I completely agree. And you mentioned the last time they faced off the only other thing that I think the Rams need to do well. Another thing is the Rams need to do better. Gotta be better on third down. And the first time they matched up, they went oher of eight on third down. On those eight third down, Stafford was sacked five of those times. And so you're talking about Cup and Pooka. Those guys have got to get open. They got to get open early. And this Eagles defense is just hellish. And that's that's basically the crux of why I'm so confident is I like the Rams offense a lot. Stafford and Puka and Kup can cause problems for a lot of defenses in their personnel, I just don't see it, you know, I think Philly can match up with these guys one on one. I think they've got elite secondary play, elite linebacker play, elite front play. Like the defense is just awesome. They've got home field advantage, they've got the more talented roster, and they molly wopped La in Week twelve. All that being said of Courson, I got a weird feeling, man, I got a weird feeling that this is gonna be a really close game.

In your balls.

In your balls.

I'm not taking the Rams, okay, but I think it's gonna be a very tight game. I am taking Philadelphia twenty four to twenty three.

I'm not taking the Rams, okay, but I think it's gonna be a very tight game. I am taking Philadelphia twenty four to twenty three.

Oh wow, okay, I'm taking Philly twenty one to seventeen. I have a similar feeling that it's gonna be close. But I do think the Eagles are clearly better. And again, it would require Stafford being so so much better than Hurts for the Rams to pull this off, and like, not even just Hurts doing the basic stuff.

Oh wow, okay, I'm taking Philly twenty one to seventeen. I have a similar feeling that it's gonna be close. But I do think the Eagles are clearly better. And again, it would require Stafford being so so much better than Hurts for the Rams to pull this off, and like, not even just Hurts doing the basic stuff.

Lets would have to collapse a little.

Lets would have to collapse a little.

Bit, I kind of think. So I just struggle to see the Rams matching the firepower that Philly has outside of the quarterback position. And then Philly also has the significantly better defense. So I'll take them in a pretty low scoring, competitive game. Here we are, Logan, We're at the granddaddy of them all, the Bills Ravens matchup, which in so many ways. Is something that we've been waiting for for months because of how much these fan bases have been warring, how long we've been talking about the Josh Allen Lamar Jackson MVP race. Here it is, it's right in front of us. I have a ton to say about this game, but I'm going to defer to you what's the first key that stands out to you here?

Bit, I kind of think. So I just struggle to see the Rams matching the firepower that Philly has outside of the quarterback position. And then Philly also has the significantly better defense. So I'll take them in a pretty low scoring, competitive game. Here we are, Logan, We're at the granddaddy of them all, the Bills Ravens matchup, which in so many ways. Is something that we've been waiting for for months because of how much these fan bases have been warring, how long we've been talking about the Josh Allen Lamar Jackson MVP race. Here it is, it's right in front of us. I have a ton to say about this game, but I'm going to defer to you what's the first key that stands out to you here?

The first key is very obvious, and it's the Josh Allen soundly and firmly outplays Lamar Jackson. I'm not even you know. I think the Ravens could win this game, and that could still happen. But that's step one for Buffalo, is that Josh aut plays Lamar and I can very easily see it happening. I know that people get on us for the Josh Allen glaze and we're Josh Allen fan boys and stuff like this, but the numbers really corroborated. If you look into him. He is number one in total yards per game by a quarterback in NFL playoff history. He is now number two in total touchdowns per game by a quarterback in NFL playoff history. He is literally zero point one touchdowns per game. Behind Patrick Mahomes. And he is second in fewest turnovers per game by a quarterback in NFL history again point zero point zero five behind Patrick Mahomes. So it's not hyperbole when I say he is one of the greatest playoffs performing quarterbacks ever. And to me, it's very simple. But that's step number one for Buffalo is that Josh outplays Lamar Jackson by a pretty wide margin.

The first key is very obvious, and it's the Josh Allen soundly and firmly outplays Lamar Jackson. I'm not even you know. I think the Ravens could win this game, and that could still happen. But that's step one for Buffalo, is that Josh aut plays Lamar and I can very easily see it happening. I know that people get on us for the Josh Allen glaze and we're Josh Allen fan boys and stuff like this, but the numbers really corroborated. If you look into him. He is number one in total yards per game by a quarterback in NFL playoff history. He is now number two in total touchdowns per game by a quarterback in NFL playoff history. He is literally zero point one touchdowns per game. Behind Patrick Mahomes. And he is second in fewest turnovers per game by a quarterback in NFL history again point zero point zero five behind Patrick Mahomes. So it's not hyperbole when I say he is one of the greatest playoffs performing quarterbacks ever. And to me, it's very simple. But that's step number one for Buffalo is that Josh outplays Lamar Jackson by a pretty wide margin.

I do think that Josh has to outplay Lamar for the Bills to win this game. But the one component that I think has maybe alleviated the burden on him to outplay Lamar so soundly as a requirement for the Bills to win this game is that it looks like Zay Flowers isn't gonna play. We don't know that for sure, but he didn't practice today and basically we're hearing that he has an outside shot at playing. That's meaningful to me because in a game that I expect to be this close, even though I think the Ravens still have solid depth in terms of weapons with Bateman and with Mark Andrews and with Isaiah Likelee taking their best receiving weapon off the field, that can swing my view on this game. So when we were talking about this before the playoffs, I said, I think that Josh can't just be a little better than Lamar for the Bills to win in this game. I think he has to be much better. Now. I don't necessarily feel that the margin has to be as great with the absence of ze Flowers. I'm gonna start on the other side of the ball, though, with the Ravens offense and the Bills defense, because I think probably the biggest key to this game is the matchup between the Baltimore rushing attack and the Bills run defense. Last time, this was a slaughter. Baltimore ran for two hundred and seventy one yards against Buffalo. That was their second highest total of the year, which they only topped this past week with two hundred and ninety nine against your Pittsburgh Steelers.

I do think that Josh has to outplay Lamar for the Bills to win this game. But the one component that I think has maybe alleviated the burden on him to outplay Lamar so soundly as a requirement for the Bills to win this game is that it looks like Zay Flowers isn't gonna play. We don't know that for sure, but he didn't practice today and basically we're hearing that he has an outside shot at playing. That's meaningful to me because in a game that I expect to be this close, even though I think the Ravens still have solid depth in terms of weapons with Bateman and with Mark Andrews and with Isaiah Likelee taking their best receiving weapon off the field, that can swing my view on this game. So when we were talking about this before the playoffs, I said, I think that Josh can't just be a little better than Lamar for the Bills to win in this game. I think he has to be much better. Now. I don't necessarily feel that the margin has to be as great with the absence of ze Flowers. I'm gonna start on the other side of the ball, though, with the Ravens offense and the Bills defense, because I think probably the biggest key to this game is the matchup between the Baltimore rushing attack and the Bills run defense. Last time, this was a slaughter. Baltimore ran for two hundred and seventy one yards against Buffalo. That was their second highest total of the year, which they only topped this past week with two hundred and ninety nine against your Pittsburgh Steelers.

Logan, Way to go, Tomlin, Way to go.

Logan, Way to go, Tomlin, Way to go.

Baby, Share that misery together. But what's extra scary is Dereck Henry is playing his best football right now. He is shredding everybody. He's averaging one hundred and fifty eight yards per game over the last four weeks. He had one hundred and fifty five yards after contact this past week. That makes the Ravens rushing attack even scarier. But the cause for optimism for the Bills run defense and the potential key difference is that in their first meeting, Buffalo was without Matt Mulano, they were without Terrell Bernard, and they were without Taron Johnson. Those are three good defensive players. Those are three really important run defenders. And since the Ravens game, the Bills are a top ten run defense in terms of yards per game and yards per attempt. And in the last five games in particular, they have been really good. We saw it this past week. They shut down the Broncos run game, and the Broncos really committed to that run game, it just did not work for them. And five weeks ago they shut down the Lines run game early. And to me, those are the two best run games in football right. Philly is right there with them, but that's the top three in that tier. It's Baltimore, it's Detroit, and it's Philly. So this is a run defense that has trended upwards, that has improved, that has gotten healthier since the first matchup. And I absolutely think that all of that matters, and it gives the Bills a much better chance of hanging in there in that matchup. It's still concerning though, because the Bills have a smaller defensive front, they play a ton of nickel and the run defense has been an issue at least in spots for the last two years. And again, nobody is going to run the ball better than the Baltimore Ravens. And interrelated with that key, right, can the Bills stop the Ravens run game at a respectable rate? Okay, they're not going to stop it obviously, can they keep themselves from getting run over like they did in the first matchup. I think the first couple drives of this game are going to be huge because if you look at how the first Ravens meeting went, that's basically where things were decided. If you look at the Bills opening offensive drive, a ball goes off King K's hands on third and two, and then the Bills don't go for it on fourth and two at midfield. That was an opportunity to extend a drive, get something going, and they weren't aggressive.

Baby, Share that misery together. But what's extra scary is Dereck Henry is playing his best football right now. He is shredding everybody. He's averaging one hundred and fifty eight yards per game over the last four weeks. He had one hundred and fifty five yards after contact this past week. That makes the Ravens rushing attack even scarier. But the cause for optimism for the Bills run defense and the potential key difference is that in their first meeting, Buffalo was without Matt Mulano, they were without Terrell Bernard, and they were without Taron Johnson. Those are three good defensive players. Those are three really important run defenders. And since the Ravens game, the Bills are a top ten run defense in terms of yards per game and yards per attempt. And in the last five games in particular, they have been really good. We saw it this past week. They shut down the Broncos run game, and the Broncos really committed to that run game, it just did not work for them. And five weeks ago they shut down the Lines run game early. And to me, those are the two best run games in football right. Philly is right there with them, but that's the top three in that tier. It's Baltimore, it's Detroit, and it's Philly. So this is a run defense that has trended upwards, that has improved, that has gotten healthier since the first matchup. And I absolutely think that all of that matters, and it gives the Bills a much better chance of hanging in there in that matchup. It's still concerning though, because the Bills have a smaller defensive front, they play a ton of nickel and the run defense has been an issue at least in spots for the last two years. And again, nobody is going to run the ball better than the Baltimore Ravens. And interrelated with that key, right, can the Bills stop the Ravens run game at a respectable rate? Okay, they're not going to stop it obviously, can they keep themselves from getting run over like they did in the first matchup. I think the first couple drives of this game are going to be huge because if you look at how the first Ravens meeting went, that's basically where things were decided. If you look at the Bills opening offensive drive, a ball goes off King K's hands on third and two, and then the Bills don't go for it on fourth and two at midfield. That was an opportunity to extend a drive, get something going, and they weren't aggressive.

Due McDermott has to push the Bill scared this type of situation, man.

Due McDermott has to push the Bill scared this type of situation, man.

I totally agree, and that is a key that I have down. This has to be a game where McDermott is aggressive, and I do think he's gotten smarter and better about that since the Ravens game. I actually think that he's been more aggressive in the second half of this season in terms of going forward on fourth down than we've seen previously, which is good because if the Bills come into this game and Sean McDermott is a coward in spots like that, I'm gonna pull my hair out because it's just not how you're gonna win this football game. You don't win a game like this with strategic punts, right It's about putting up points, giving yourself a chance, putting the ball in the hands of your best player, in my opinion, the best football player in the world right now. But back to how things transpired in the original matchup. After the Bills didn't go for it and they punted strategically, what happened. Derek Henry ripped off an eighty seven yard rushing touchdown, so that punt didn't matter at all. Next drive, a holding sets back the Bills. They have to take a field goal. Then the Ravens march down the field and they score. Then the Bills have a fourth and one at their own forty after running the ball in the first downs, they don't go another spot where you just barely miss out. You're not quite where you need to be offensively, and you're passive, and then the Ravens march down and they score again. So that's twenty one to three right there. The Bills couldn't get a stop. They specifically couldn't stop the run. They had a couple of those near misses on offense, a bad penalty, and twice they didn't go for it on fourth and short, and that doomed them for the game. But you compare that to another game that I thought was basically the complete opposite in terms of how it started for the Bills, in a matchup that I also thought was concerning because of the run game that they were facing. That's the Lions game where they shut down the run. Detroit only got forty eight yards on the ground in that entire game. Buffalo jumped out early, their offense was clicking, and they were able to play the whole game on their terms. Now, the Lions still put up points, but at least you were making Jared Goff throw instead of allowing them to run the ball down your throat, and again, you were dictating the game that entire way. So I honestly think the the first quarter in this game is more important than the fourth quarter, because I think the first quarter is where the tone is set. It shows up, it shows us if the Bills defense can hang, if they can compete physically, and it determines what game script the Ravens will follow for the rest of the game, because if the Ravens can just run the ball at will down your throat, and if they're in control for four quarters, well that's a slow and painful death. If you can keep them in check early right, if you're on even footing, or if you buffalo take the lead, especially if you take a multiple score lead, that completely changes the complexion of the game. It forces the Ravens to throw more, and we've seen time and again, as good as Lamar has gotten as a passer, that is not as successful a formula for them, and that's the spot you want to put them in. But last time, the Ravens couldn't have been more comfortable, they couldn't have gotten what they wanted more, and that all started very early in the game.