Nerd Sesh - NBA Play-In Reactions & FULL Playoff Predictions

Published Apr 19, 2025, 5:47 AM

The nerds react to the final round of the Play-In Tournament and break down how the Miami Heat match up against the Cleveland Cavaliers and how the Memphis Grizzlies stack up agains the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Then, with all their first-round picks official, they run through the remainder of the playoffs to pick who they believe will end up as NBA champion.

Timestamps

00:00:23 - Mavericks Season Eulogy

00:05:52 - Hawks Season Eulogy

00:13:12 - Thunder-Grizzlies Predictions

00:25:57 - Cavaliers-Heat Predictions

00:35:16 - NBA Playoffs Predictions

#Volume

The volume. No, no, oh my god, how could he do that?

Don't want.

What Charles Darwin.

The nerves is where it's at.

Welcome everybody back into Nerd Sash. As always, I'm Carson Breving. Alongside he is Logan Camden and Logan. The entire playoff field is officially set. We just saw the final play in games tonight, So today we're gonna talk a little bit about those games, give a quick season in memoriam to the teams who got eliminated. We're going to preview the one seed versus eight seed matchups in both conferences, and we're gonna quickly go through our full playoff brackets and declare who we have as our NBA champion picks. But before we get into all that, Logan, I want to talk about the team that just got eliminated, that being the Dallas Mavericks, who the Memphis Grizzlies bounced and pretty convincingly led the entire game. Obviously an insane season for Mavericks fans in every way imaginable, But how do you feel about them with their season ending this way?

I can't say anything nice about the Dallas Mavericks. Next year they're going to have an opportunity to compete again, and then I think their window may be officially shut. That's the only positive thing I could say about Dallas is that this isn't it. You know, next year, Anthony Davis should be back, should be healthy, Kyrie Irving should be back, should be fully healthy.

Well at the All Star break, maybe.

Well, I mean by playoff time, you should at least be available. I mean, they gave up one of the brightest superstars in the league for an aging, often injury prone guy. They don't have any of their first round picks after twenty twenty seven, so you know, it's like, I don't have anything like super encouraging to say about Dallas. This was a colossal disaster of a season. Nico Harrison deserves to be beheaded and at least to have some like tomatoes and arn adam or something, you know.

I wish there was a silver lining to this season.

I guess it's the fact that.

They're gonna be in the lottery. Good for them.

Man, this is the most disappointing season imaginable for Dallas, and I hope, for their sake and for Dallas Mavericks fans sanity that they have an opportunity to compete in the playoffs next year, man.

Because that's it.

I mean, that's the only encouraging thing that could come in all this as an opportunity to win a championship next year. So I hope for Dallas's sake that they're there, and I like them at full strength, Like that is the one thing that I will give Dallas is I still think that this could be a really competitive team when you've got the kind of rim protection and defense and length and athleticism that they have with an offensive guy that I really like, and Kyrie Irving despite him getting older, Like, if this team is fully healthy, if they're fully available next year by the playoffs time, I think this is a team that I would consider to be a championship contender, but they got to be fully healthy to have that kind of championship ceiling.

I do think that they're a really good basketball team with Kyrie Irving, I still think that they would be on the outskirts of being a contender because I still struggle to see this team being like a good offense, and I think that obviously in the absence of Kyrie, they really struggle on that side of the ball, So I thought this was a disappointing defensive performance from them, just because I think that they should be so good so consistently on that end. Offensively, you really just have nobody who can create a shot outside of Anthony Davis, who is also trying to adjust to playing in these double big lineups where he is primarily playing at the four. I know that's what he wanted, because he's always craved playing alongside a center for whatever reason. But I do think you see stretches of this game where it's like he's so reliant on the perimeter game. He's so reliant on the jump shot. And although I think that ad is very skilled for a big, at the end of the day, he's a thirty percent three point shooter, he's a forty two percent mid range shooter. So there is gonna be some inconsistency with his game offensively if he is that dependent on the perimeter stuff. But I thought that he played a phenomenal offensive game and overall was really good as a jump shooter and was more aggressive getting into the lane and attacking the paint as this game went along. But just nobody around him was really capable of stepping up and even when you get Kyrie back, this team isn't going to have that elite playmaker Kyrie.

We don't know what he's gonna look like.

Man.

I mean, this is a guy who is in his thirties who is going to be coming off of a major injury. We don't know when he'll return. We don't know if he'll look the same at any point next season. So for all these reasons, that's why the Luca trade, above all else, is the all time disaster that it was right because in terms of just the talent they bring back, Anthony Davis is phenomenal, but knowing the availability questions you have about him and knowing how much you are shrinking your timeline to be that all in on a group that is also worse in a vacuum, but then to be so dependent on winning now and to have no future essentially, and then when Kyrie goes down, like you just feel like you're in a pit of despair.

And that was basically how the end of the year went for the Dallas Mavericks.

It's scary to see Ady grabbing at his legs and having to leave for a second early in the fourth quarter, and then he comes back, and like I said, I mean, he was incredibly at forty points in this game. But the future is just so so dark in Dallas, and hopefully it gets better, but I don't think it's getting a whole lot better from here. Let's talk real quick about the other team that got eliminated, Logan, the Atlanta Hawks, who were in playoff position the entire year and then miss it through the play and the heat bounced them.

How do you feel about their season?

The Hawks are in a really interesting spot that you know, they're not always concretely into the playoffs, they're not really battling in our contenders, but they have a lot of assets that I that I really like. Trey had a really bad start to this game. The first half and first quarter was really really rough. A lot of turnovers, a lot of ugly shots, but he was hitting some big shots in the second half to make this thing close, you know, down to the game tying layup.

To force overtime.

I like a lot of what Atlanta's got going on, man. I mean, Jalen Johnson gets injured midway through this.

Year and you don't have him.

You got to think that made a difference in this team's final end of your results in their trajectory.

I really like Jayalen Johnson for the future.

I know Reesache has an absolute disaster class in this game, just couldn't get his shot going whatsoever. It seems like by the end of the game he had just completely lost confidence. But I really like Resache for the future as an off ball scoring wing, as a connecting piece. I don't think he's got that kind of superstar upside, but I think he can be a consistent and impactful, winning kind of wing in this league. And he's still very very young. I think that's important to note. And there's other guys I like here. I thought on Yaka had a really good game. I think that he's had a really good year. I'm trying to think about the pieces that Atlanta needs to get over the hump and to take that next step. And ironically, Carson the kind of asset that I look like that I look at Atlanta Needing is kind of like the big man that Miami has in this game and who they were battling against the night. I really think if they could get a khalel Ware, a guy that could compliment on Yeka.

I like on Yaka a lot.

I think he's a really good defensive big man, but he's not a really good rim protector. And I think if they could get another really impactful big athlete in there who wouldn't ruin their spacing. And like I think on Yeka's improved offensive, but he's still like I mean, he's hitting threes in this game. His touch has improved a lot, Like I've been really impressed with him, but I'd really like another real rim protector. And maybe you don't start both of them all the time, kind of like Miami does, but maybe you stagger their minutes. I really like if they could get another impactful big and Dyson Daniels had a breakout year. I think, you know, it's disappointing, Carson, when you're one of these teams that's stuck in this middle of the conference and you keep hitting your head. It seems on this ceiling where it's playing play and playing and you can't break through.

But I say it every year.

It seems like about Atlanta, there's a lot of young talent here that I like, and there's something to say about that, and so I'd be encouraged, Like I said, man Jayalen Johnson took a step forward, Dyson Daniels took a real step I think Dyson is the exact kind of guard that if you're going to keep Trey Young, is the guy that you need in that two spot, a defensive, connecting guy, and he's grown offensively as well. It's a steady year of growth for Atlanta, and so it may be frustrating that you're not breaking through into this new tier of teams or you're not in real contention. I think it's another stead of year and improvement, and if they can stay healthy next year, if you get a full year out of Jaylen Johnson, I would expect this team to make the playoffs and to at least be a little bit more competitive than they were down the second half of this year. But I think it's a relatively encouraging year for Atlanta.

I would agree.

Man, you just think about the expectations coming into the year, and you traded away to Jonta who really wasn't very good for you and was always overrated, but like there just wasn't a lot of established talents on paper alongside Trey, and you still got to the cusp and you did that in spite of the fact that you lost your second best player midway through the season, that you traded away some of your other best contributors like DeAndre Hunter, like bogged On Bogdanovich, and you are really relying on Trey Young carrying a very young core with a lot of players seeing the floor at the end of the year who just aren't all that good. But in terms of like the wings around Trey, who I do view as legitimate pieces for this team. Resache I thought had a very encouraging season. You mentioned the off ball IQ, the shooting, the cutting. He's just gonna be a productive, solid role player for any team. Dyson Daniels super impressive season. I agree, his elite defensive value makes him a really nice compliment to Trey, and he was a solid offensive player this season. I think that Jalen Johnson has legitimate All Star potential. In fact, he was kind of on the outskirts of those conversations this year before he got hurt. Just such a great do it all forward who has just continued to improve dramatically, such a good playmaker, versatile defensive player, has improved as a shooter. So I really like that foundation. And then I like Onyeka a lot. I've always been a believer in his man. I said back in twenty twenty that I liked him more than James Wiseman for the Warriors if they were going to take a big So I've always been a fan of his and I think that he's developed really nicely off offensively. His touch is good, his feel as good as a passer, the shot has improved, and as you mentioned, was really going in this game. He's a little weird because he is undersized. You mentioned he's not that real rim protecting presence. He doesn't really anchor the defensive glass all that well at the five, so I don't necessarily view him as a cornerstone piece, even though I like him. But he's on a good contract. I mean, you're paying him like fifteen million in a year, super four years.

He's super, super versatile for a big man.

And just very productive.

Once they made him the starter this year, gave you fifteen to ten and three on sixty five percent through shooting. So there's a lot of really solid pieces here, and I do think that they'll be in the playoffs next year because they have a lot of those solid wings. They have a solid big and then Trey is just a really great offensive floor raiser. The question this team is going to have to continue to confront is is Trey Young going to be content with carrying a young roster that is so dependent on him offensively to get bounced in the first round, Because that's what would happen to the this year. If Jalen Johnson stayed healthy, that's what's going to happen to them next year. And the reality is they just don't have a ton of opportunity for improvement because they don't have control over their own first round picks for the next few years. And even if they did, I mean, they'd still be in like that middling range because they're too good to bottom out and they're not good enough to be in these upper echelon playoff conversations. So that's kind of the big picture bummer.

Angle on it.

But the positive angle is this was an encouraging season for the Hawks. I would have liked to see Tree gett in the playoffs, just because I thought he had such a difficult job this season and really did an excellent job offensively. But at the end of the day, this wasn't the most talented team. It's not really a surprise that they didn't make it.

I picked the Heat to beat.

Them in this playing game, and overall, I think you feel better about a lot of these individual players than you probably would have coming into the year. So with those two teams out, Logan, we officially have all of our first round matchup set. We have already previewed the two, seven, three, six, and four five in both conferences. If you missed those throughout this week, we've talked about them in great detail. So we're just gonna talk about the one to eight in each conference. Now, Grizzlies Thunder, Logan, what's your prediction here? What are a couple keys that stand out to you.

I'm debating whether to give the Grizzlies a game or not in this series.

Uh, I think I'm gonna take the Thunder to sweep.

What I'm looking for really is how Memphis is gonna generate consistent offense. And that's where I really struggle with Memphis in this series. I think that Oklahoma City has a really, really good cast of perimeter defenders to throw and limit John Morant, like, I just think his job is going to be so exceptionally difficult in this series. No matter who his matchup is right, if it's against the starters, if it's Sga, if it's Lou Dort, if it's j dub, all of those guys are incredibly switchable or gonna cause him problems one on one. But then you get to the bench and it's like, he's not gonna get any breaks. He's gonna have to battle against Caruso, He's gonna have to battle against Cason Wallace. So I just think it's going to hard for Jaw to be comfortable in this series. I don't think he's ever gonna be able to get really anything easy. And then the other advantage you would look at for Memphis potentially in this series would be their size and ability to dominate the glass with guys like Jaron Jackson Junior and more importantly.

Zach Edy, just because Zach Edy is that kind of.

Transformative big man on the glass. You really felt that in this game against Dallas. I mean, Dallas is a really big team, and yet Edie was destructive in this matchup. And so really the size and defense and rebounding is why I would consider giving Memphis an opportunity to get a game in this series.

The reason that I'm not one.

I think Oklahoma City the rebounding issues that we saw presented in their playoff run last year, I don't think are as explos With the addition of Isaiah Hartenstein and with Oklahoma City's ability to run those double big lineups, I think they're extremely viable offensively and defensively.

But more importantly, I really.

See schematic issues for Memphis's defense guarding Oklahoma City in space. I think Zach Edy is a liability in space, and I think he is a guy that's gonna get picked on all series long if it switches onto guys on the perimeter, if it's trying to guard.

Guys in space, and you know, real quick. I think that that can.

Sometimes get a little bit overstated with Zach Edy because I think Edie is so impactful as a rebound like I just think it's valuable having a guy like Edie out there on the floor, and I think that can get overstated sometimes. But specifically in this matchup, Oklahoma City is again the number one three point shooting team in basketball by efficiency, and so I think it's vitally important that the team defending them is really switchable and doesn't have that kind of weak point on the perimeter because Ed He's probably gonna be matched up one on one a lot with a Chet Holmgren or if it's Triple J, and I just think he's gonna stretch out the defense, give them a lot of space, limit Edy's effectiveness as a rim protector and ability to just camp in the lane, and so that takes away his biggest strength.

So I could see Memphis.

If Oklahoma City has an off shooting night or something like that, maybe Shay's cold from the floor stealing a game. But that's really what I'm debating here in this series. I think it's gonna be a cake walk for Oklahoma City. I think they really cause John to have an off series with their bevy of elite perimeter defenders. In this elite defense, I think that they force a lot of ugly turnovers on eighty and Triple J. Both of those guys are really clunky and not coordinated. Like I think that I'm trapping and sending doubles at those guys when I can to see if I can force them into dumb turnovers, and they just dominate this one. So I debated giving Memphis a game. I'm gonna take Oklahoma City to sweep.

Yeah, It's like the conversation here is, really, are you going to take okay See in four or Oka See in five? I think the most interesting thing in terms of personnel and schematics to this matchup is going to be how much does Memphis go double big with Zach Edy on the floor. Personally, I would do so a good bit if I'm the Grizzlies. That's been their most effective lineup. They have a plus thirteen net rating in the minutes when Triple J and Edie share the floor. Now Edie has to stay stuck to Isaiah Hartenstein. He has to play exclusively drop coverage, right. You have to do everything you can to avoid him being out in space at all in this series. And like, it's scary defensively having Zach Edy on the floor against a team as fast as Okase that has so many perimeter threats, that plays so effectively in transition.

But the reason that I would play Edie.

A lot in this series is Memphis is that you're a big time underdog. No matter what right, you can't play not to lose. You have to play to win, and you're not gonna beat the thunder downsizing and prioritizing speed a bit more and trying to beat them at their own game. They're just way better at their own game than you are. I think you have a better chance of at least giving them a competitive series, trying to go huge, doing what you have done best, and potentially beating them up physically, potentially dictating the glass, right, because otherwise I just think it's too easy for OKAC. I think it's very simple what they do. If Edie isn't on the floor, you put Hartenstein on Triple J. He's a really big physical defender who Triple J isn't going to be able to bully physically, which is what he likes to do. And then you can have Chet on santy al Dama. You can have him as a roamer helping on all these drives. Like that's just a very easy defensive formula for the Thunder to execute. If you put Edie on the floor, now you have to put Hartenstein on him, because you just don't think that Chet can bang bodies physically with a guy who's seven foot four and has sixty pounds on him, right, And so now maybe you have to put Chet on Triple J, who isn't gonna be as good defensively on An Island in that matchup as Hartenstein is, just because of the strength difference. And like Chet is amazing defensively, I think he's a really good post defender. He's underrated there because his length is just so impactful, but he's conceding a lot of strength in that matchup, And so maybe you don't like Chet defending Triple J on An Island as much, and maybe you even think, Okay, we'd rather have like a feisty wing like jadub on him, who's a lower center of gravity guy right and is going to really make all his catches difficult and has great hands. You might turn to just doubling the shit out of Triple J Moore, which I think is honestly a good strategy because he has been a second percentile post up creator. When he sees hard doubles, he is the worst passing star in basketball. So like, at the end of the day, I don't think Okac is in trouble if they go any of these routes. I think they are going to be able to find answers no matter what, because they're just a way better basketball team.

But my thought process is.

If you put Edie and Triple J out there on the floor together, you're at least forcing OKC to make some decisions, and you're forcing them to play against what has been your best lineup and what is a potential vulnerability of theirs. I agree they're way better on the glass. They're much more equipped for these big physical front courts now that they have Hertenstein. But this is a very extreme version of it. And I could honestly see ok SEE countering Memphis going huge by actually going the opposite direction by going Chet at the five. So they are just so fast and everybody can shoot in that lineup, and you can see the battle on the glass. You say, okay, fine, you'll kill us on the boards, but we're going to be unstoppable offensively. We're going to make Edie garden space. We're not gonna give him an out with Hartenstein. He's going to have to be guarding a Chet Holmgren or whatever, and then that's when I think they could really play him off the floor.

So regardless, I don't.

Think there's any winning for Memphis here. I would just be more uncomfortable if I'm Okase going up against the double big looks, and for that reason, that would be the big decision to make for the Grizzlies. Other than that, a lot of this is just gonna come down to, like what level can their stars reach, because they would need those guys to be phenomenal for this to be a really competitive series.

And Jaw has been playing a lot better as of late.

He ends up having a super inefficient second half in this game, but first half was really getting what he wanted. Last fifteen games before this one, he's been averaging twenty eight four and seven on fifty nine percent true shooting. That's a huge leap in production compared to what he was doing earlier in the year.

And we've talked about.

The Grizzlies sort of going away from the identity that they had established earlier this year, leaning more into jaw pick and roll, and he individually is just much more comfortable when he is able to be running a ton of pick and roll when he isn't asked to play off ball as much. But the Grizzlies team offense hasn't been any better since they made that shift and have let Jaw play jawball more like. His individual production is a lot better, but Memphis is eighteenth in offensive rating since March fifth, which is really when their style started to shift. And as you mentioned, Okase can guard him insanely well, like you have lou Dort's screen navigation and his motor and then you have either cheddar Hartenstein playing drop Like that's a really really good answer to jaw. So I don't see him having the sort of like a dynamic great series that Memphis would need him to. I do worry about Triple J seeing doubles against this super active defense that I think is going to force him into some mistakes as a passer. The Grizzlies have regrets rest a lot defensively. They've been nineteenth the defensive ratings since January first, So are they going to be able to make okay See uncomfortable offensively? I don't think so. I think Shay is going to fulay them, especially without Jalen Wells, Like they just don't have the point of attack defender who can really even make him work. Not that Jalen Wells was going to be that guy, but he would be a better answer than the alternative. So I just think Okay sees speed on the perimeter, their athleticism their skill offensively, and then all the things that make them great defensively are going to translate very seamlessly.

To this matchup.

Like they dominated the Grizzlies in the regular season and they didn't have Jaw for a couple of those games. They didn't have Triple J for one of those games, but just a much better basketball team.

Yeah, I think Memphis could dominate the glass in a way that keeps this moderately competitive. But I'm telling you, I think with Oklahoma City's rotations and how much havoc they reak, I think this is going to be a really ugly Triple J and a really ugly Zach Edy series. Like, I think there's just gonna be I think there's gonna be moments for those guys who are just overwhelmed and turning the ball over a.

Lot and frustrated.

Like, don't get me wrong, I think Edie could have a big rebounding series. I think Triple J could abused some mismatches because he's so good.

But I think there's.

Gonna be a lot of moments where Memphis is gonna look up and you know, just holy shit, you know, how did this defender get here? I didn't even see this guy, and I think Oklahoma City's gonna get him out on the break run in transition, spray a lot of threes, and I think Shay's gonna cook in this series.

So yeah, I don't know, man.

I think John would have to have a flawless series, which I think is gonna be super difficult with this personnel matchup. I think Triple J would just have to be unconscious. It's just so much would have to go right for Memphis, and I just don't see it.

Man. I think Oklahoma City's gonna roll in this one.

I agree, And I will point out, even as I'm talking about Memphis going double bigs to try to impose themselves on the glass and win convincingly, they're like the thunder. Double big lineups have also been excellent rebounding. In fact, if you look at both offensive and defensive rebound rate, when these teams go with their double big looks, they're in like one percent of each other. They've been super comparable on the glass. So even that isn't like a real big advantage for Memphis. If it's double big on double big, I'm gonna take Okay.

See in four, I considered five just because Memphis.

Is a good team, but they haven't been playing very good basketball for a while.

And okay see, is just unbelievable. Man. They're an absolute juggernaut.

They have advantages in basically every category, and I'm gonna bet on them winning convincingly because I was thinking maybe it's a gentleman's sweep, right.

They go up three to zero and then they let up a little bit. Okay See, doesn't let up, dude.

They play with that fire and that intensity as consistently as anybody in basketball. Let's look at the other one eight matchup. Logan calves heat. What are you looking for here?

I think I'm gonna take Cleveland in five in this one. I do think Miami and they're weird voodoo magic playoff, They're gonna get one. I feel like I really like Miami. I like, I just really like how solid their rotation is. Like They've got a lot of playable dudes that I just would like to have in my rotation. I think that the leap that we've seen from Tyler Hero has been really really impressive this season. I think Khalil War is a freaking stud. I'm so glad I stake my claim in him pre draft. I think him and Bam really really work together, but they're also just get give you that versatility where if you want to have one of those guys on the court and the other off, I think it really works. I think I think Wear's got even more offensive upside, Like he's such a monster on the glass and he's such a good lob threat and just a simple play finisher. But I think he's got real floor spacing potential and then you know, you.

Give it off a Jimmy.

But Andrew Wiggins is solid, like Kyle Anderson is solid. Davion Mitchell had an awesome game and I always thought that he was, you know, a rotation guy in this league, and the Kings kind of just discarded him, right, So I really like Miami's rotations.

I think that.

I think they can get an off night from a Cleveland guard. I think Darius Garland could have an off game.

Off night, off night that's nickname.

Yeah for real.

Well, I think Davion would be the reason why. I think that he could cause Garland to have an off night. I think that at a BAIO and where could muck things up enough for Mobley and Allen in a single game to get one. But ultimately, the difference to me in this series and why I'm going to take Cleveland to win in five.

They are the better basketball team.

I prefer their depth all that, obviously, Yeah, I prefer them on both sides of the ball, actually, but the biggest difference to me is the albur of offense. Cleveland's offense has been number one all year long and Miami's offense. I don't know if you saw the stat they flashed up during the game. It's the fact that nobody in the NBA this season has more laws is after leading in leading in the third quarter.

Than Miami this season. They've got fifteen such losses.

So I think their clutch offense is gonna let them down a little bit.

I think there's a really really big burden.

On Tyler Hero to get tough buckets, and not that this is anything against Hero, but it's gonna be everybody else stepping up, and I think that's where the it's gonna get a little bit too overwhelming against this Cleveland offense that.

Just generates easy offense. It will Darius.

Garland has been awesome, Donovan Mitchell has been awesome, Mobley and Allen too, like they've got shooting everywhere.

They're just the much better two way team.

So I thought, just out of respect for how dominant Cleveland has been on both sides of the court, if I should give them the sweep. But Miami's just too feisty. I don't think Miami is going to go down in a sweep. I think coach Spo, I think this team grits out one victory, but very similar to our last series, I think Cleveland's.

Just going to roll in this one.

I am picking the Caves to sweep here. I just think the talent disparity is too big. This is just about as big a gap between two teams offensively as you're going to see in.

The playoff field.

I do want to give Miami props because I do think that they're a very solid basketball team, and their best players have been playing really well as of late, and I like their kind of quote unquote big three. Like Tyler Hero, I think as the potential to have a couple of nuclear games in this series. His last ten, he's averaging twenty nine to five and five on sixty nine percent true shooting. And the Calves really don't have the best point of attack defenders. Bam Adebayo is also playing really well. Had a brutal start to the year offensively, but since the All Star break is averaging twenty one to nine to four on sixty percent true shooting. And I do really like Wiggins coming in as a two way wing. So I believe in those three guys. The challenge is just like, the Cavs have three All NBA players this year, and I think that their depth.

Is clearly better.

Now, hopefully Miami will have a couple of guys back for this series who they've been without for a while because their depth has really been stretched pretty thin. Jovic has been out for a long time. He's legitimately good, but he was questionable for this game against Atlanta, so you get him back out there. Kevin Love has been out for a while, but you get him back out there potentially like that helps them. I still think that Cleveland has the better depth, so I'm basically just like looking out for a couple of indicators that I want to see from Cleveland in terms of how they project going forward. I'm interested in seeing who starts at the three in this series because they've been going with Max Strus. I do think that DeAndre Hunter is a part of their best five man lineup, and I want to see him closing a lot of these big games. In this specific matchup, though, I'm fine with Strus starting just because I think that he can do a pretty good job on a guy like Hero and this isn't a matchup where I think they need the size of a DeAndre Hunter on the wings like they will against the Celtics or a team that is more big wing centric offensively. But I'm interested in seeing if they make the change to Hunter because they really haven't done that. I want to see how Evan Mobley looks offensively, because this is gonna be a series in which he's gonna be matched up with another big for a decent stretch. Like I think we're gonna see the Heat go double big a lot, because those looks have been really effective for them. Khalil Ware has been really good and obviously the Calves are gonna go double big a lot. So when Mobley doesn't have those sort of physical advantages to work with as a mismatch attacker, if he's matched up with ben Adebayo a lot, that's a really difficult defensive matchup, so I wonder how productive he's going to be offensively, and then when he does have opportunities to attack mismatches, how consistently aggressive is he. Because Mobley's had a phenomenal, phenomenal season, I'm the biggest believer in him that there is. But for the Calves to like win a title, they need a really great version of Evan Mobley offensively, So want to see what form he's in.

And then I just want to see.

Collectively how the Calves look on defense, because their defense has not been the same in the home stretch of the season. They are I think fifteenth in defensive ratings since January first, just very average, and I think a lot of that is just them taking their foot off the gas, not really needing to reach their defensive ceiling because they had the one seed effectively locked up so early. I just want to see them get back to the level that I believe that they're capable.

Of on that end.

But regardless of if they check those boxes, like, I don't see how the Heat get more than one game, and I don't expect them to.

Get a single one.

I'm gonna take the Cats to sweep here. The NBA eighty two game grind is done, and now the real fun begins. The NBA Playoffs are here and it's time for all the high stakes drama, clutch moments, and jaw dropping plays.

I can't wait.

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So, now, Logan, let's just go through quickly all of our future hypothetical picks. So to lay things out first, let's talk about all of our first round predictions. We won't elaborate, just say who we picked in each series. So obviously I have the Thunder advancing and beating the Grizzlies. I have the Warriors beating the Rockets. I have the Lakers beating the Timberwolves in six, and I have the Clippers beating the Nuggets in six.

I have the Thunder beating the Grizzlies in four. I have the Warriors beating the Rockets in six. I have the Lakers beating the Timberwolves in seven, and the Nuggets defeating the Clippers in seven.

So we diverge on Clippers Nugs. So your second round matchup for Oksee is going to be the Nuggets. How do you see that going.

I'm gonna take Oklahoma City to beat Denver in six, and then we both have Lakers Warriors. I'm gonna take the Lakers to beat the Warriors in seven.

Okay, I'm gonna take the Thunder to beat the Clippers in six. I think the Clippers are an excellent basketball team. I think that they can defend the Thunder decently well. But I think that OKAC is going to be able to give James Harden a really hard time. I think he's been playing phenomenally well. I think he's gonna have a great series against Denver. But he shot thirty one percent versus the Thunder this year. That's not a coincidence. It's a really tough matchup with their perimeter speed and athleticism and aggression, and Shay's gonna be the best player on the floor by a good bit. I trust Okase's depth more so. I think that's a good battle. I think the Clippers are really, really good, but I expect Okac to pull through with a little bit of margin. And then Lakers Warriors. I'm gonna take the Lakers in six. I considered seven because I think the Warriors have some advantages with their speed on the perimeter, and this is a matchup and with both teams are gonna go small a lot, so that's gonna be fun. But I trust the totality of the Lakers offense more. I think the Warriors could struggle a bit dealing with a couple of really big wings like Luca and Lebron or you know, those big ball handler types. And I just think the Warriors are so reliant offensively on Steph and Jimmy scares me a little bit, like the Lakers have a big three offensively, and then those guys are all so great on ball, They're able to directly dictate their outcomes offensively, and then they have really good shooters around them, Whereas it's like with the Warriors offense, you're more reliant on guys capitalizing around Steph on the attention that he draws. He's not necessarily going to be as effective on ball, and I just have a lot of questions about some of the supporting offensive pieces. So we're both gonna set up an ok se LA Conference finals in the West. In the East, I have the Calves sweeping the Heat, I have the Celtics sweeping the Magic. Then I have the Knicks beating the Pistons in six, and I have the Pacers beating the Bucks in seven.

So I've got Cleveland and Boston winning their series as well, both of them in five. And we completely agree on Nick Pacers. I've got the Knicks and six and the Pacers in seven.

Okay, so second round, what are you expecting from Calves Pacers.

I've got Cleveland taking down the Pacers in six. I think the Pacers superpower ekes them out a couple of games.

I just think.

It's a recipe that you can have a lot of success on. I look at the Pacers kind of like how I look at the Washington Commanders in the NFL. It's like when you can just put points on the it's such an elite superpower that you can compete with some of the best teams in the game. The difference is that Cleveland's just a much supreme two way team. And like, also, I get that Boston, you know, packed up Indiana last year in the Eastern Conference Finals. All of those games were super competitive, and I think that Indiana, no matter who they play, no matter who they run into, this is just a team that is going to be a tough out every single night.

Like it really is.

A superpower that they have that they can score offense in bunches like that. So I think it's gonna be relatively competitive, as competitive as a series like that can be. So I'm gonna take Cleveland in six.

I'm gonna take Cleveland and six as well. I agree. I think this could be a really interesting battle.

These are both great offenses, teams that are super effective playing with pace. I think the Cavs have more talent on both sides of the ball. At the end of the day, I think that they have more dynamic creators. The Garland and Mitchell backcourt is so so difficult to solve and I think that the Cavs have more defensive answers for Indiana. I think that they have much more defensive versatility than, for example, the Bucks, who they're going to see in the first round. I think they have the ability to guard a Pascal Siakam pretty well. I think they can guard the Pacers front court really well with the size that they have there. And they're just not rigidly attached to any certain coverages defensively. You can switch mobile, you can switch out, but those guys can also play drop. They just have so many options on both sides of the ball to be a really, really good basketball team, and so I do see them winning out in that one.

How about Celtics Knicks.

I'm gonna take Boston in six.

Okay, I'm debating how many games exactly to give the Knicks here, Like I think they're kind of marching to their death against Boston.

I'm just I'm gonna give Boston.

A couple off shooting knights or something like that here against New York. I think that's what it's gonna take for New York to steal a couple of these games, mainly because I just don't think the Knicks have the personnel needed to really disrupt Boston. That being said, I think their two best defenders are gonna be matched up against the guys that they can disrupt the most in Tatum and Brown, the two most important players for them, so aggregately in totality, I think that Boston's talent advantages are gonna win out, specifically the matchup against Jalen Brunton, where I think that White and Holliday are kind of be able to get what they want or if they're getting switches on Jalen brunts, and similar logic with Karl Anthony Towns. I just think there's gonna be some positional liabilities that they're able to exploit in that starting lineup. But I think Anonobian Bridges are gonna be able to battle as well as you can against Tatum.

And Brown, so.

They slow that duo down a little bit. In a couple of games.

Maybe the Celtics have a few off shooting nights and they take out New York in six, But I'm closer to Celtics in five than I am Celtics and six in that matchup.

I'm closer to Celtics in four than I am to Celtics and six.

I'm gonna go Celtics in five.

I think they are a terrible matchup for the next not only are they a way better basketball team, Like I just think this is Kat's nightmare series having to guard in space this much, because this team is so obscenely skilled having to deal with like the ultimate stretch five in Christopsperzingis, who has just absolutely killed the Knicks. You look at the last game they played, just consistently pulling Kat out into space. And then they also have so many high level drivers who can punish the knixt lack of rim protection. I agree that Og is a phenomenal defender in this matchup. On the Jays, I don't think that mckel is strong enough to deal with these two. I think that both Jalen and Jason are just a bit too big and physical for mckel. Who is that slighter wing who really is better set up to deal with small wings or guards defensively. So I really just see zero answers.

For New York defensively.

And then, like you said, I think Boston can also hunt Jalen Brunson. I think that the Celtics' depth is significantly better the Knicks just really have no versatility unfortunately, and the Celtics are a team against which it would be very nice for them to have some versatility, but they don't, and I think that they get handled pretty easily in that matchup.

I know that they.

Almost won their last meeting, but that kind of felt like the Knick super Bowl and they still didn't get it done. Conference Finals time logan, we both got thunders Lakers.

What's your pick here?

I'm going to take the thunder and seven. I think this is an absolute battle Luke and Lebron. I think that Oklahoma City can throw you know, they're well of perimeter defenders at these guys, and think lou Dort is going to be the only one that's really uber effective, and so I think that they're always gonna be a mismatch. I know that Oklahoma City has a bunch of elite perimeter defenders, but there's a size disadvantage against Luca and Lebron, and so I think they're.

Gonna get theirs.

And I just think I trust Luke and Lebron to have big enough games to steal some from Oklahoma City. The difference to me is I don't think la I think the double big lineup. I don't think Oklahoma City's gonna employ it a ton because I think that Luca can really exploit them with that.

But I think that I like their bigs more.

I think they're gonna win on the glass, even though I don't think that's a massive advantage for Oklahoma City. And then I just prefer their perimeter shooting. And ultimately, I don't think that Luca has shown me that he's at a high enough level where I could pick him to do what he did last year, But I can't count it out. Like I'm closer to I could see the lake coming out of the West. I really can if Luca.

Tunes it up.

And that's why I'm that's why I really consider taking La out of the West.

Like Luca's one of those guys that scares me that I think that he could just take over. I mean, he's one of those special players on the planet.

But I'm just not as confident as I am at the level that he's at as I am with Shay, and I think that kind of gets underrated.

Man, I don't know what it's gonna take.

I do know what it's gonna take for Shay's got to win a title, and it's got to be this year, and that's what it's gonna take for people to fully appreciate him for what he is in the level of basketball that he's.

Been playing at. And uh, that's really the difference. To me.

I'm more confident in Shay Gildes Alexander being the best player in a series between these two teams. And that's the edge that's I'm at like fifty five forty five between both of these teams.

It's so close.

I think the Lakers really match up well with Oklahoma City. I just have more faith in Shay right now, and so I'm betting on OKC. And obviously I prefer their defense.

Yeah, I do expect Shay to be the best player in this series, but I think I also expect the Thunders defense to be able to make La more uncomfortable than vice versa. And I just think the Thunder have a lot more defensive versatility. I think that there are a number of coverages that they can try, right if it's switching on Luca and daring him to beat them as a score one on one where he's been better as of late, but hasn't been super consistent this year, or if it's playing drop coverage with excellent screen navigation from a loudort and with really good rim deterrence from your bigs, then I look at the Lakers and I'm like, they don't have a prayer of guarding Shay straight up.

Their entire strategy.

Is going to be aggressive gap help on all of his drives and dare shooters around him to beat you. And I just believe in the Thunder shooting like they've been first in three point percentage since January first, I don't think that as a viable enough defensive strategy over the whole series to slow the Thunders offense down. I think it's the right strategy given their personnel, because they just can't guard Shay one on one.

Nobody can.

But I also think the Lakers especially can't, and they're really good as a collective team defense.

They do a really nice job with gap help.

I still think the thunders collective offense is too good. I trust their role players more in terms of their two way contributions, and I think the Thunder are the better basketball team. I think that this is a tricky matchup for them because Luca and Lebron are so massive and so strong and so difficult for any team to deal with offensively. But I think the Thunder are the best two way team in the West by a good bit. And I still think they're going to be able to get what they want offensively for the most part against LA and I think that they are going to have more answers defensively.

How about Celtics Cavs logan.

I'm gonna take ball and I'm gonna take Boston in six. I think, uh, Cleveland got a lot better by making the trade for DeAndre Hunter, and I think they closed the gap a little bit.

I think it was an important.

Rotation piece for them to add to match Boston Physically. I think this is the best Cleveland team that we've seen. I mean, number one offense this year. Kenny Atkinson has coming here and done wonders. You know, we saw Evan Mobley take a leap, we saw Darius Garland bounce back in a big way. We've seen Alan steadily improve. Like Cleveland's really really good, but Boston is just the standard, and I just don't think Cleveland's there yet. I think that this window is going to open up when Christops porzingis ultimately exits. I think he's gonna have to because of the salary cap restraints.

But until them, Oh, I thought you were saying at some point in these plays.

I really had not.

If that happens, you know, I would give Cleveland a little bit more of a chance if that did happen, but I would still think I would favor Boston ultimately. Schematically, this comes down to the fact that Cleveland is going to have the two biggest glaring defensive week points on the court, and I think that is something that Boston's going to be able to exploit. They do two things at a really elite level, and that is shoot the hell out of the ball from behind the arc and attack mismatches. And I think when you have two glaring weak points on defense, like Donovan Mitchell, like Darius Garland, it's just really hard to overcome in this specific matchup against the team that is so good at attacking mismatches, where Tatum is going to be able to get what he wants, where Jalen Brown is gonna be able to get where he wants. And it's not just limited to those guys, It's really a switch on anybody. Holiday and Derek White both have side on these guys. Even though they may not be the most physical guys, Horford and Porzingis are good mismatch attackers, and so because of those defensive liabilities, I'm gonna take Boston to finish them off in six on their home floor.

Yeah, you basically hit the net on the head. And what I was going to say, these are two phenomenal offenses. One team is just going to have to work harder because there's no defensive weak points to attack, and that's Cleveland against a really stellar, complete Boston defense, Whereas Boston is going to have a major entry point in Darius Garland, who they are going to involve in every single action and who I think they're going to very successfully be able to physically impose themselves against. And either the Jays are going to score efficiently in isolation or they're going to draw help and they're gonna find an open shooter. Like every time that you involve Garland in an action, you are giving yourself an advantage offensively, and that's an edge that the Celtics have in this matchup that the Cavs just don't on the other side. So I think it's going to be a phenomenal series. I think it's a very very good six I think both teams put forth great offense.

I just think it's gonna come.

Easier for Boston and because their defense is more complete than the Calves and it's a better defense period. How about the NBA Finals now, Logan Thunder Celtics. We have had this as the matchup on paper since before the year, and here we are at the end of the regular season, and we both agree this is still what we are expecting.

Who do you have as your NBA title pick?

I'm going to stick to my guns at what I said at the halfway point started this year.

I was on Boston.

Midway through the year, I had moved to Oklahoma City, and I'm going to stick with that pick, and I'm going to take Oklahoma City to win. And it's specifically something that we've touched on throughout this year and something that we saw in matchups between these two teams in the regular season, and that specifically Oklahoma City's ability to limit and guard Jalen Brown.

You know, Carson, it sucks, man. I think that I think discourse is going to be.

Really, really toxic, toxic if Oklahoma City doesn't win it this year, and I think it's going to be really, really negative.

And I don't want that to happen.

I want Oklahoma I guess I'm a little bit biased. I want Oklahoma City to win because I think it would just be such a screw of you to a lot of people in the NBA, like media sphear that just aren't believers in what Oklahoma City is doing this year and has done, and it seems like the only way to validate their success this year is to cap it off with the championship. But I truly think that this is a historically great defense. I think they pose a better matchup problem for Boston than anybody else in the NBA today, again with all of their elite perimeter defenders, but with their size that they've added this year, but specifically with how they guard Jalen Brown.

I just don't want it to.

Be something that if Oklahoma City goes down in six or seven games, for people to say they can't win the title, They're too young, Shay's not good enough. I just don't want this to become a you know, somebody taking victory laps on something that's so dumb. It's like I don't think this is a failed season if Oklahoma City doesn't win the championship this year.

I think it's a young team that has struggled to.

Get over their final hurdle, which just to ultimately win the championship. But I think they're going to do it, and I don't think we're gonna have to worry about that. I think shake Gilgess Alexander is going to be the best player in the world in that series. I think he's got the opportunity to do it in back to back series against La and Luka Doncic and against Jason Tatum and the Boston Celtics, and I think this is a historically great defense that can just disrupt Boston in ways that nobody else in the NBA can.

And I just want them.

To do it. Man, A lot of there have been so many people that have been negative and skeptical about Oklahoma City all year long, that have looked in cherry picked individual losses from this team, and I think just overblown them. I think this is a really great team, and I think this is the year that they established themselves as the the new kids on the block and the new favorite. And I think Oklahoma City is gonna be the new standard. They're gonna set the bar, so I think it's super competitive. I can very easily see Boston winning this series and being back to back champs. Yeah, but I'm gonna take okay See in seven.

We've talked about this a million times throughout the year and it's still all hypothetical, so I'll try to keep it quick here, but I'm gonna take the thunder and seven as well. I think that the Celtics are the safest bet against basically every other team in the league because they have so much margin. I mean, just the amount of creation and shooting that they have offensively is so overwhelming. But in this specific matchup, I like oka See. I think Sga is the best player on the floor in this series. I don't think there's anything that Boston can do with him defensively.

I trust their shooting.

Around him enough, and then I think their defense can make the Celtics uncomfortable in a way that nobody else can. I think that's against everybody. Okasee is just bringing a different level of speed on the perimeter of disruption with their ball pressure, their ability to fly around force turnovers an unprecedented rate, they're elite protecting the rim, they have insane lineup versatility. So like for all of those reasons, they are the best defense in basketball, and that translates to every matchup. Right, They're going to be excellent defensively no matter what, but specifically against Boston, their ability to contain dribble penetration against an offense that is so dependent on that, and specifically to give Jalen Brown hell, as you said, he cannot dribble the ball comfortably against the defense that is this feisty, with this many great perimeter defenders. He can't attack mismatches against them, which is what he does best, because there are no mismatches to attack. Everybody they play is good defensively. Everybody they play is superactive hands and is going to fight really hard for positions. So I just think he really really struggles. I think he can take the Celtics offense out of rhythm. I think he's inefficient. I think you can relegate him to be being more of a jump shooter if you're okay see, and he's been a bad jump shooter all year. So that's ultimately why I lean okay See. I think to beat Boston, you have to make them uncomfortable with your defense. I honestly don't think any other team in the NBA can do that, but I think Oka se can do it at a really, really high level. So that's why I am going to take them. This has been like fifty one forty nine for me all year, and like, Boston is so insanely talented, and it's possible that you drop KP into this matchup, who we didn't see in the second meeting between these two teams, and he is just like a nuke going off because he is that insanely good. But I'm going to lean on the formula that we've seen Oka see execute in the regular season winning out here. So there you have it, folks. I feel like a kid on Christmas Eve night, Logan. I am genuinely so excited to wake up tomorrow and watch Bucks Pacers and then we've got Clippers Nuggets. We've got a beautiful, beautiful slate for tomorrow. I can't wait to get into all of it.

Man.

I think that this should be one of the best postseasons we've seen. I think it should be one of the best first rounds that we've seen, especially in the West. It's very rare to have this many matchups that you think are this close on paper, and I just can't wait to get into it all, and I can't wait to talk about it after with you Tomorrow night, Logan, because we're gonna be live Tomorrow night, We're gonna be live Sunday night, and we're gonna be live a whole lot of nights throughout this postseason because it's playoff basketball time, baby, and we are locked the fuck in. So I hope you guys are all back here Tomorrow night with us, and I hope you're with us throughout the entirety of this playoff journey. If you want more of our content, you can find it all on our YouTube channel, all of our full length shows, all of our video essays and video breakdowns that we do going more in depth into one specific topic. You can also listen to all of our episodes across all audio platforms, and if you want our short form content, you can follow us across social media TikTok and Instagram at nerd, sessh, Twitter at nerd Underscore or sash. You can see all of our social content there, and if you want, you can join our discord The link to that is that the link tree across our social media bios. You can also check out our merch in our link tree. So with that, I cannot wait for tomorrow and I hope to see you guys. Then I've been Carson Braber, I have been Logan Camden and this was an NERG sash