Well, in about eighteen hours time, Donald Trump will become the forty seventh president of the United States. The President elector is spending the eve of his inauguration in a series of Washington events that celebrate his return to the power as he prepares to move back into the White House. It's a time of deep political divisions in the US. Will Donald Trump be able to bring the nation together? He's spoken large and long about what he is prepared to do, and he obviously has by the electorate, has most of the people behind him. But what will this mean not only for the US, for the rest of the world and in particular Australia. Joining minow's associate Professor David Smith, the US Studies Center, the University of Sydney. Professor, good morning to you, thanks for your time.

Well, in about eighteen hours time, Donald Trump will become the forty seventh president of the United States. The President elector is spending the eve of his inauguration in a series of Washington events that celebrate his return to the power as he prepares to move back into the White House. It's a time of deep political divisions in the US. Will Donald Trump be able to bring the nation together? He's spoken large and long about what he is prepared to do, and he obviously has by the electorate, has most of the people behind him. But what will this mean not only for the US, for the rest of the world and in particular Australia. Joining minow's associate Professor David Smith, the US Studies Center, the University of Sydney. Professor, good morning to you, thanks for your time.

Today, Good morning, thanks for having me.

Today, Good morning, thanks for having me.

The inauguration. We assume it will go smoothly and to plan. But Donald Trump is going to after that time, we would say, unearthed more changes than any president has probably made a history.

The inauguration. We assume it will go smoothly and to plan. But Donald Trump is going to after that time, we would say, unearthed more changes than any president has probably made a history.

Yeah, he's talking about signing two hundred executive orders on his first day. The biggest ones of those are going to be rolling back regulation on oil drilling, on federal land, especially in Alaska, and things to do with the southern border. It's not clear exactly what he's going to do, but he really campaigned on having a crackdown on illegal immigration on the Mexican border, so he's promising to do a lot very quickly. There's a limited amount that any president can do unilaterally, and executive orders can always be undone by the next president, so a lot of what he's actually doing is going to be undoing executive orders by Joe Biden, which in turn were undoing executive orders that Trump had last time around.

Yeah, he's talking about signing two hundred executive orders on his first day. The biggest ones of those are going to be rolling back regulation on oil drilling, on federal land, especially in Alaska, and things to do with the southern border. It's not clear exactly what he's going to do, but he really campaigned on having a crackdown on illegal immigration on the Mexican border, so he's promising to do a lot very quickly. There's a limited amount that any president can do unilaterally, and executive orders can always be undone by the next president, so a lot of what he's actually doing is going to be undoing executive orders by Joe Biden, which in turn were undoing executive orders that Trump had last time around.

When Donald Trump was the forty fifth president of the United States, he came into it with no political background and obviously went into the White House and it was all new to him. Expect that he's learned some lessons from his first term.

When Donald Trump was the forty fifth president of the United States, he came into it with no political background and obviously went into the White House and it was all new to him. Expect that he's learned some lessons from his first term.

He certainly believes he has. He believes that the last time around, he was supported by people who were opposed to his agenda, and that this time around, he's only surrounding himself with people who are completely committed to him and will follow through on whatever he wants to do. I think that this approach is a double edged sword. On the one hand, he's not going to face very much resistance. On the other hand, he's bringing in a lot of very inexperienced people this time around, who won't necessarily know how to navigate what is still a very difficult and complex political environment. So even though he might not face much internal resistance within his own team this time around, he might still find it pretty difficult to accomplish everything that he wants to accomplish when he's surrounded by such inexperienced people.

He certainly believes he has. He believes that the last time around, he was supported by people who were opposed to his agenda, and that this time around, he's only surrounding himself with people who are completely committed to him and will follow through on whatever he wants to do. I think that this approach is a double edged sword. On the one hand, he's not going to face very much resistance. On the other hand, he's bringing in a lot of very inexperienced people this time around, who won't necessarily know how to navigate what is still a very difficult and complex political environment. So even though he might not face much internal resistance within his own team this time around, he might still find it pretty difficult to accomplish everything that he wants to accomplish when he's surrounded by such inexperienced people.

One of his most high profile, if not the most high profile appoint that is Elon Musk, who's been delegated the job of cleaning out the government of unnecessary waste. Is this a good move?

One of his most high profile, if not the most high profile appoint that is Elon Musk, who's been delegated the job of cleaning out the government of unnecessary waste. Is this a good move?

I don't think that this is a good move. Elon Musk has clearly proven himself to be a highly successful businessman, but dealing with government requires a very different kind of skill set because government does a lot of valuable things. You don't just want to cut everything, really nearly for the sake of saving money, because you might end up cutting things that are pretty vital to the whole life of the United States. And Elon Musk so far hasn't shown much interest in really learning about the workings of government. He very much has the view that because of his business success, he's got the answers to everything, and he's got this very expansive vision of getting the human race to Mars. So he's the big ideas man. He's I don't think he's going to be particularly across the detail of government, but this is a good example of his bringing in somebody who is very inexperience, who is prepared though to go along with the Trump agenda. Musket got into that position by being very, very supportive of Trump.

I don't think that this is a good move. Elon Musk has clearly proven himself to be a highly successful businessman, but dealing with government requires a very different kind of skill set because government does a lot of valuable things. You don't just want to cut everything, really nearly for the sake of saving money, because you might end up cutting things that are pretty vital to the whole life of the United States. And Elon Musk so far hasn't shown much interest in really learning about the workings of government. He very much has the view that because of his business success, he's got the answers to everything, and he's got this very expansive vision of getting the human race to Mars. So he's the big ideas man. He's I don't think he's going to be particularly across the detail of government, but this is a good example of his bringing in somebody who is very inexperience, who is prepared though to go along with the Trump agenda. Musket got into that position by being very, very supportive of Trump.

There's been a ceasefire in the Middle East. What role did Donald Trump play?

There's been a ceasefire in the Middle East. What role did Donald Trump play?

I think that Donald Trump probably provided the final push that was necessary to get Benjamin Mettner Who over the line. So it had been negotiated for eight months by the Biden team, who really got it very very close to the end, but there were still all of these last minute delays and disagreement. But apparently the netya WHO team was not expecting to have a Trump envoy coming them and coming to them and telling them that Trump wanted a deal before his inauguration. They were apparently taken off guard by that, and they felt that they had to respond by giving Trump what he wanted. So Trump can't claim all of the credit for that. It was the previous administration that got the agreements very very close, but he may well have provided a very important last minute push on the Israeli side.

I think that Donald Trump probably provided the final push that was necessary to get Benjamin Mettner Who over the line. So it had been negotiated for eight months by the Biden team, who really got it very very close to the end, but there were still all of these last minute delays and disagreement. But apparently the netya WHO team was not expecting to have a Trump envoy coming them and coming to them and telling them that Trump wanted a deal before his inauguration. They were apparently taken off guard by that, and they felt that they had to respond by giving Trump what he wanted. So Trump can't claim all of the credit for that. It was the previous administration that got the agreements very very close, but he may well have provided a very important last minute push on the Israeli side.

He said that he will end the Russia Ukraine war. Is that talk or has he liked or is he like to have some impact in that area?

He said that he will end the Russia Ukraine war. Is that talk or has he liked or is he like to have some impact in that area?

Certainly he wants to end it. That could be harder than he says it's going to be because both sides of that conflict are really adamant about not giving way for Ukraine. This is about their national survival. Vladimir Putin has take a huge amount on this conflict on the other side, and he really wants to come away with a win. So that could be something that is very difficult to negotiate. It was widely believed last year that Trump would probably want a settlement that was fairly favorable to Russia in terms of letting them keep the territories that they've already won in Ukraine. But since he won the election, it's been a lot harder to read what he's actually going to do, and certainly from the very beginning, Ukraine was also really really lobbying Trump very hard from their point of view. So it's really not clear what's going to what's going to happen now.

Certainly he wants to end it. That could be harder than he says it's going to be because both sides of that conflict are really adamant about not giving way for Ukraine. This is about their national survival. Vladimir Putin has take a huge amount on this conflict on the other side, and he really wants to come away with a win. So that could be something that is very difficult to negotiate. It was widely believed last year that Trump would probably want a settlement that was fairly favorable to Russia in terms of letting them keep the territories that they've already won in Ukraine. But since he won the election, it's been a lot harder to read what he's actually going to do, and certainly from the very beginning, Ukraine was also really really lobbying Trump very hard from their point of view. So it's really not clear what's going to what's going to happen now.

Well, big oil is certainly celebrating the return of Donald Trump. What is the future of clean energy on worldwide scale, let alone the US.

Well, big oil is certainly celebrating the return of Donald Trump. What is the future of clean energy on worldwide scale, let alone the US.

Well, I think that the clean energy agenda is in for at least a four year pause in the United States. During his campaign, Trump went to major oil company executives and said to them very onely, if you give me a billion dollars, I will I will put in place all of these things that you want. Now. I mean, they didn't give him a billion dollars, but they didn't need to. Trump, like every public and president, is very very committed to the oil industry and to other extractive industries. So he will reverse a lot of the regulations that were put in place by Joe Biden which limit oil drilling on federal land, especially in Alaska. That's all going to be opened up again. It's always very hard to say what effect this is going to have on things like oil prices. Certainly, Trump's supporters hope and believe that this is going to lead to an immediate drop in oil prices. It's always hard to tell how that's going to work, But certainly I think it will make any kind of global cooperation over clean energy a lot more difficult. There's always a lot more difficult when the biggest economy in the world isn't really participating.

Well, I think that the clean energy agenda is in for at least a four year pause in the United States. During his campaign, Trump went to major oil company executives and said to them very onely, if you give me a billion dollars, I will I will put in place all of these things that you want. Now. I mean, they didn't give him a billion dollars, but they didn't need to. Trump, like every public and president, is very very committed to the oil industry and to other extractive industries. So he will reverse a lot of the regulations that were put in place by Joe Biden which limit oil drilling on federal land, especially in Alaska. That's all going to be opened up again. It's always very hard to say what effect this is going to have on things like oil prices. Certainly, Trump's supporters hope and believe that this is going to lead to an immediate drop in oil prices. It's always hard to tell how that's going to work, But certainly I think it will make any kind of global cooperation over clean energy a lot more difficult. There's always a lot more difficult when the biggest economy in the world isn't really participating.

Donald Trump has threatened China in particular with large tariffs to protect the US manufacturing industry. Is that likely to have any flow on effects to Australia.

Donald Trump has threatened China in particular with large tariffs to protect the US manufacturing industry. Is that likely to have any flow on effects to Australia.

Well. Not only has he threatened China, he has been adamant that he wants to put tariffs. He usually cites ten percent as a number. Sometimes it's twenty percent on every country in the world. And when there have been people in his incoming administration telling the media honor he's not serious about that, he only really wants to put them on China, Trump will come back and say, no, no, I'm serious. I wanted to put them on the rest of the world as well, which would include Australia, and it would particularly include aluminium. Would be the big Australian industry that would be affected. Australia sells a lot of aluminium to the United States. Is an area in which we have a trade surplus and may have a deficit. And if there's one thing that Donald Trump hates it is trade deficits, and even last time around he actually threatened Australia with alminum tariffs. So certainly I think he's serious about putting tariffs on Australia as well as on China. We've seen in the last few weeks John Howard and Peter Costello, former Prime Minister and Treasurer, have really come out against that idea. Once again, we probably won't know until he takes office what he is actually going to do, but I think that we need to take the prospect of that very seriously.

Well. Not only has he threatened China, he has been adamant that he wants to put tariffs. He usually cites ten percent as a number. Sometimes it's twenty percent on every country in the world. And when there have been people in his incoming administration telling the media honor he's not serious about that, he only really wants to put them on China, Trump will come back and say, no, no, I'm serious. I wanted to put them on the rest of the world as well, which would include Australia, and it would particularly include aluminium. Would be the big Australian industry that would be affected. Australia sells a lot of aluminium to the United States. Is an area in which we have a trade surplus and may have a deficit. And if there's one thing that Donald Trump hates it is trade deficits, and even last time around he actually threatened Australia with alminum tariffs. So certainly I think he's serious about putting tariffs on Australia as well as on China. We've seen in the last few weeks John Howard and Peter Costello, former Prime Minister and Treasurer, have really come out against that idea. Once again, we probably won't know until he takes office what he is actually going to do, but I think that we need to take the prospect of that very seriously.

He is no not going to hit the ground running, but the US is reaching a limit in terms of its debt, I mean the debt limits and many trillions of dollars. What's going to happen in that area?

He is no not going to hit the ground running, but the US is reaching a limit in terms of its debt, I mean the debt limits and many trillions of dollars. What's going to happen in that area?

Yeah, So the United States has laws saying that it has to limit the amount of debt that it can actually borrow, and if it wants to borrow more, Congress has to raise that limit. And every few years we get this near crisis happening over where the Congress will actually vote to raise the limit. Trump wants Congress to raise that limit very quickly so that he'll be able to enact his own very big programs, which are going to require a lot of money. The problem he's going to have is that within his own party, there are a number of members of Congress who are fanatically opposed to raising that debt limit any higher. They believe that debt is strangling the United States and that they urgently need to get it down before they can do anything else. Because Republicans in Congress only have a working majority of two at the moment, that means that if there are two Republicans who are just completely opposed to raising the debt ceiling, that could completely derail congressional negotiations. So that's going to be a very difficult thing for Trump to negotiate. Almost as soon as he takes office.

Yeah, So the United States has laws saying that it has to limit the amount of debt that it can actually borrow, and if it wants to borrow more, Congress has to raise that limit. And every few years we get this near crisis happening over where the Congress will actually vote to raise the limit. Trump wants Congress to raise that limit very quickly so that he'll be able to enact his own very big programs, which are going to require a lot of money. The problem he's going to have is that within his own party, there are a number of members of Congress who are fanatically opposed to raising that debt limit any higher. They believe that debt is strangling the United States and that they urgently need to get it down before they can do anything else. Because Republicans in Congress only have a working majority of two at the moment, that means that if there are two Republicans who are just completely opposed to raising the debt ceiling, that could completely derail congressional negotiations. So that's going to be a very difficult thing for Trump to negotiate. Almost as soon as he takes office.

Professor, we could talk about the inauguration of Donald Trump for ours. Thank you so much for your time today. We'll have to do there, Associate Professor David Smith, the US Study Center, the University of Sydney. Yeah, we live in interesting times and Donald Trump inauguration tomorrow, he's going to hit the ground running and we will see what the future holds. Will keepn on it very closely.

Professor, we could talk about the inauguration of Donald Trump for ours. Thank you so much for your time today. We'll have to do there, Associate Professor David Smith, the US Study Center, the University of Sydney. Yeah, we live in interesting times and Donald Trump inauguration tomorrow, he's going to hit the ground running and we will see what the future holds. Will keepn on it very closely.