Suspiciously well-timed oil and prediction market trades tied to the Iran-U.S. conflict have reportedly totalled close to US$7 billion, raising fresh questions about geopolitics, insider conviction and how markets price fear.

Oil surged after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned the conflict with Iran was “not over,” sending Brent crude above US$104 a barrel and WTI close to US$95.

Hosted by Michelle Martin, this episode turns to veteran trader Simon Ree, Founder of Tao of Trading, to unpack whether these trades were pure foresight, sophisticated probability analysis - or something more.