Are you falling for financial fake news? A recent survey shows many Americans have wildly inaccurate views of our economy, potentially costing them big bucks.
From believing we're in a recession to thinking unemployment is sky-high, these misconceptions could keep you from making smart money moves. But here's the kicker: the economy's actually growing, unemployment's near record lows, and the stock market's been on fire. Ready to get the real scoop on the economy and make informed decisions with your money? Check out this week's Money Talks News podcast for fact-based insights and tips on finding reliable financial news. Don't let misinformation cost you – your future self will thank you for tuning in!
Subscribe to both the Money Talks News newsletter and our YouTube channel. You'll be glad you did!
Check out the video version:
https://youtu.be/2vd_ZBoic9k
Chapters:
0:00 Introduction and survey results
5:00 The truth about the economy
10:00 How to find reliable news sources
15:00 Elections and the stock market
20:00 Closing thoughts and resources
Hello, everybody. It is Finance Friday and I am live on Facebook. I wanted to talk to you guys. We're obviously we're here to answer questions. Let me introduce myself to those of you who have not known me. Uh, my name is Stacy Johnson. I started Money Talks News in 1991. I've been a CPA for 40 years. I also have earned licenses in stocks, commodities, options, principles, security supervisor, real estate, life insurance
and lots of other stuff. No, not lots of other stuff. That's basically everything. Anyway, I wrote an article last week
that hold on, let me see what's going on here.
Ok, good.
I'm hearing that you guys are hearing me.
You can see me, you can hear me. Ok. That's good. I, I read an article last week that I wanted to go over with you guys while I'm waiting for any questions that you may have. And by the way, if you ask a question,
um, make sure you put, put a few different question marks in front of your question so I can pick it out if there's a whole bunch of other stuff written here. Uh, anyway, I wrote an article last week and I want to share with you guys. I think it was published this Monday, but I was reading a survey
on the survey. Ho honestly, it just pissed me off. Uh, it, it was just outrageous. Let, let me, I'm gonna, I'm gonna read you some of this stuff
that was from the survey. This is a survey that was done for the Guardian and it was done by Harris Harris poll. OK. Here's what it says. 55% of Americans think our economy is shrinking.
Can you imagine that 56% of Americans think the US has experienced a recession that we're in a recession.
49%. Believe the S and P stock market index is down for the year.
49% believe that unemployment is at a 50 year high.
72% of Americans believe that inflation is increasing
now. It so basically guys,
half of all Americans think the economy is shrinking. They think that we're in a recession. They think that the stock market is down for the year. They think that unemployment is at a 50 year high and almost three quarters of Americans believe that inflation is increasing.
Now, this is ridiculous. Now, listen,
everybody, everybody follows the, the news of their choice, but here's the seamy underbelly of this whole stupid algorithm thing. And that is that what's happening is when you go on any social media site or almost any site.
Uh many sites anyway, you're gonna be fed stories. Right. And the stories are gonna be fed are the ones that agree with you. The ones that you click on. If you click on it, the algorithm knows what you like and it keeps feeding it to you, but it doesn't give a damn whether it's real or not. It, it really doesn't care because the whole purpose of these algorithms is to get you clicking. and why do they want you to click? Not to make you more educated? They, they want you to click so they can make money and they really don't care
uh if the stories are true or not. And that's why so many people believe half of people think that the economy is shrinking. Half think we're in a recession.
And, you know, when you read stuff that, that resonates with that whatever your political beliefs are, that's great. That's fine. But, you know, when you believe this type of stuff
that cost you money,
I mean, seriously, I mean, imagine, imagine if you think,
but if you're a shrinking recessionary economy with high unemployment and the stock market is falling, would you put any money in the stock market?
Of course, you wouldn't, I wouldn't, I mean, and this is keeping people on the sidelines when they probably should be investing. You see what I'm saying? So in it doesn't matter what your political beliefs are. If you believe that
I, if you want if you want to live in an echo chamber where every, every single thing you read or see agrees with your beliefs, your prejudices. That's fine. Do that. I mean, if it makes you happy, do it. But if, what you're doing is slanting your view of the world in a way that might cost you your future and your retirement. That's really stupid.
So now I, in this article, I've got the article in front of me, let me tell you what the truth is.
The truth is. The economy is not shrinking and has not been shrinking since 2020.
Uh, here, here are the numbers in 2021 the nation's gross domestic product grew by 5.7% in 2022 by 2% 2023 by 2.5% so far in 2024 it was up 1.6% in the first quarter to 3% in the second. The economy has not been shrinking for years.
And if you read the, if you read unbiased news, you would understand that also the economy is not the recession. I just told you it was growing. A recession is basically two consecutive quarters of economic shrinking. You know, the, the economy is getting smaller as I just told you, it's not getting smaller and it hasn't for four years. The stock market down for the year.
What
last year the stock market was up 22%. This year, it's up about 23%.
The stock market was almost never done that. Well, I mean, this is historically great returns. And if you're sitting on the sidelines, because you think the stock market is down for the year, you've given up a hell of a lot of money. It, it just makes no sense. And here, here's the best one.
Employment, is it a 50 year high?
The, the employment rate, in fact, it just came out this morning. The employment rate is 4.1%.
The, the lowest it's been in 54 years was last year when it was 3.4%. So basically the unemployment rate is not only near 50 year high, it's, it's almost at a 50 year low. I mean, this is just crazy to me. Now, inflation, let's talk about inflation
actually. Let me go back over here and see if anybody's saying anything.
Ok.
Ok. Now let's talk about inflation for a sec.
The problem with inflation is if I tell you that inflation isn't increasing very much,
you might be thinking I'm saying prices are going back down
and that's not the case. That's not how this works. Inflation is increasing prices. We all know that.
And if, if the inflation drops and by the way, inflation was monster big in 2021 I think I've got the numbers here.
Oh yeah, it was uh four per 4.7% in 2021. And 8%. And I'm sorry. Yes, that's right. 8% in 2022. That's huge.
A and collectively over the year since 2020 prices drop about 20%. Ok? Now, if I tell you that we've conquered inflation, you may think that prices are gonna go back to where they were in 2020. But that ain't, that ain't right. That's not what happens. What happens is the inflation rate. That is the, the rate of rising prices has gone from 8% in 2022 to 2%. 2.1. We just had it this week.
Ok? And that's traditionally, that's the target of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve wants the inflation rate to be around 2%. So it's, it's fallen from 8% to 2%. Prices are not gonna go back down if they did. If prices fell, that would be called deflation. When price, when, when inflation is dropping, that's called disinflation. When, when, when prices are literally dropping,
that's called deflation. And that's the worst thing you possibly happen to an economy the worst. Why simple? Because if you take the price of what you want to buy, it's gonna be less tomorrow. You ain't buying. And if you ain't buying, then the economy collapses, it goes off a cliff and it's really hard to get a deflationary economy back to stable. That's why the Federal Reserve wants to have an inflation rate that they're not aimed for zero. It's too close to deflation, too risky. They want it 2%.
They want prices to rise just a little bit and they want your wages to go up to the same amount. So you end up in the same place. That's true. Whether you have a job or whether you're on social security. So it's, it's kind of tricky but inflation is, has been tamed the Federal Reserve actually engineered a soft landing. Really unusual because usually what happens is when the economy is running too hot, which it was after the, after the um
pandemic. But what usually happens is the, the fed raises interest rates that slows down economic activity, right? Cost you more to buy a house, costs you more to buy a car, cost you more for your credit cards, blah, blah, blah, that slows the economy down.
And then, but what happens ordinarily is they wait so long and they have rates so high for so long that the economy doesn't just slow down, it goes into a recession.
So it's very rare for them to raise rates, slow down the economy but not cause a recession. And it certainly appears that that has been accomplished this time. So the, the fed chairman is a hell of a job. Uh they raise rates just enough to slow down the economy but not so much. So they went to a recession. So actually the bottom line of all this, I'm sorry, I'm like preaching like this. But the bottom line of all this is, times are good, times are good now
and, and if people don't understand that and they're sitting on the sidelines because they think everything sucks. Well, then you're gonna, you're missing the opportunity to make a lot of money
and now a lot of people when you're watching me, you're probably thinking this,
oh, it's the stupid republicans or, or it's the stupid democrats lying or, or any number of other things. And there is some truth to that the large majority of people who have these ridiculous beliefs happen to be Republicans because that's what they're being fed by their stupid sources of news, by the, by people who care more about their bottom line than they care about the people watching the news. However, let me hasten to add, I'm an independent,
uh, I'm not a Republican or a democrat, but let me hasten to add that the same thing will occur, uh, with, ok, the same thing that happens on Fox now will happen on MS NBC. If there's, if there's a, um, if there's, if Trump's in, in office, right? So in other words, the party out of power tries to make the party who's in power look as bad as possible by, by selectively taking facts, blowing them up and distorting what has actually happened in the real world.
And that is like I said,
that's your business.
I mean, if you want to believe crap. You gotta walk around hating people, whatever. It's totally fine. But I'm urging you
not to be stupid with your money because you're reading bios sources of news. Does that make sense? Hopes so?
Ok. Oh, yeah, Kim says this portfolio is doing well this year. I know, I know you own some, uh NVIDIA anyway.
So, what, what do I read? How do I get, how do I get my facts straight? I, I have some people tell me, in fact, this has happened to me for a couple of years now. People say, well, all the news is biased.
You know, you can't believe anything you read
and I don't, that, that's bullshit. All the news is not biased. Um, you, you want to read non biased news, read the Associated Press, read Reuters. I mean, and when it comes to money I read, um, C NBC, uh, and watch their programs.
I read, um,
market watch, I read the Wall Street Journal. I read, I read Barons,
I read Bloomberg.
Uh, there's plenty of, of, uh, honest news out there. There's plenty of information if you'll just go and look for it. But if you're gonna sit in front of some biased, uh TV, show or some biased website that really doesn't give a damn whether you live or die, they're, they're just trying to convert your life savings into theirs and if that's what you want to do,
do it but don't do it with your money. I mean, get objective, you get objective there, 75% of people.
It's just crazy. I just don't understand what's wrong with people.
So, ok, that, uh, oh, n Pr Aaron Aaron suggests and that's true too. But I mean, I read these sources of news every day. This is my job, you know, and, and I read, I read, um, I read biased sources of news too but I don't believe them. And in fact, if you look at MS N right now and we're big on MS N,
you will find so many stories from so many publications that are just not right that what they're trying to do is get you to click, they're talking about the polls are saying Donald Trump is gonna win. The polls are saying Kamala Harris is gonna win and, and, and why are they saying that because they want to give you an honest representation of what's actually happening in reality or because they want you to click something so they make money,
think about that, look at who's up. I don't care if it's, if it's a giant site like MS N
who is the publisher of this article.
I mean, if, if you, if it's not something someone you recognize
be suspect, I mean, really, I mean, we've been doing, we have actual journalists that work at Money talks news. I mean, you know, people who went to college for journalism, people who are professional writers uh, and, and along these websites, they don't have, they have 20 year olds using, using algorithms and A I to create stories for clicks and, and I know it's hard to tell the difference in this stuff, but the truth is that
there is honest advice and news out there and it's your responsibility to understand what's real and what's not. And if you don't take the time to do that,
that it could cost you tons of money, I mean, think, think how much money that, that you made in the stock market in the last few years.
I mean, it's, it's, I made an astounding amount and if I were on the sidelines because I was believing this bullshit, I wouldn't have made anything. Well, I would have made, you know, whatever, three or 4% at the bank.
So, anyway,
do elections affect the stock market? What should I do with my money?
Um, yes. Well, elections really can't affect the stock market that much. There's a, there's a lot of people now that are saying that, uh, and, and just for, if this is gonna be seen after the live. So just to let you know, uh, this is the Friday before election. It's, it's November the first, the elections on Tuesday. Uh, and there are a lot of people who are saying the stock market says Donald Trump is gonna win first of all, let, let's talk about
the stock market and how it works and whether it can predict, you know, who's going to win the White House.
First of the, the, what is the stock market like the best? Do you think
Democrat,
a Republican?
Someone give me an answer on Facebook, like
Democrats or Republicans is that favored by the stock market?
And you, and, you know, it's kind of a, this is kind of a trick question, by the way, I don't know if anyone's answered it yet,
but
the, the truth is what the stock market prefers
is to have a deadlocked, um, federal government. In other words, if you've got a Democrat in the White House, then you want Republicans in either the Senate or the House.
Uh, so that's a Congress that can't accomplish anything because if you don't have the House of the Senate and the Public and the president ready to sign something, you ain't passing anything.
So, the, what the stock market likes is certainty and certainty means they, their hands are tied behind their back and they can't do a damn thing. That's what the stock market really likes.
But the, um,
a lot of, but what, so that's the first thing. It doesn't matter. Not, I'm talking now just about the stocks, not about society at large, but it doesn't really matter who wins. The White House, the stock market would prefer that nobody could do anything that they're paralyzed.
Um,
otherwise there are things like people are taking,
they're saying the interest rates are going up lately. They've gone up significantly actually, since July
and some people are saying that's because Donald Trump is proposing tariffs that would raise the price of everything in the United States or everything that's imported anyway.
That may be true. It may not be. But, and, and then some people are also saying, um, Kamala Harris is going to raise taxes on people whose incomes are over $400,000 if she can and she's gonna raise corporate income taxes as well. Now, that's obviously not great if you're a hedge fund manager and it's not great if you're a big company either because you're gonna pay more in tax, more in tax means less profit. So some people might think that she's a bad person. But,
you know, the truth is there are so many variables involved and, and they say so much bullshit on this, on the stump that you can't believe anything anyone's saying. I mean, Trump's gonna make social security nontaxable. He's gonna make tips, nontaxable. Uh He, he's, I mean, they just say whatever comes into their mind, right?
Uh And, and so it doesn't really even matter to me, what they actually say is what they actually do. And if, and if you've got one party with the Senate, the House and the White House, they can actually change things because they can pass laws
and those laws may be good. Uh I, I would say that if you're a rich person, you probably don't want Kamala Harris in the White House.
Uh And, and actually if you're not, if you're a poor person, you probably don't want Trump in the White House either. Because the price of, if, if he's successful at raising tariffs, the price of everything you buy is going to be more, not everything, but many things you buy will be more expensive. And that obviously is harder for people in lower income categories than it is for people in higher income categories. So there's something to like, it's something not to like with both of these candidates.
Now, we're not getting a lot of questions today
and I may just um
stop the uh the live eat and, and eat lunch.
But anyway, the, the one thing I really want to do in part today, let's see what this says.
Oh, yeah. Yeah. Uh Aaron just said the New Yorker did a piece on Russian and Iranian social media, fake news. Russia pro Trump, Iran pro Harris.
But, and that, that's the thing too. I don't understand why so many people fall for fake news. I also don't understand why they're spending a billion dollars on these incessant ads. Each of which contradicts the one before it. I, I mean, I voted weeks ago, uh and yet, oh my God, the political advertising it and, and you know, they even say they even say,
what do you know? So and so is outraged so, and so 2 to 1.
Uh, and, and I'm sure there must be something to be said for money. But I guarantee you they might as well just take a big old bale of money and set it on fire for the ads that I'm watching. They would change my opinion whatsoever because they're all lies. I mean, I just don't understand this whole political system and, and I think, you know, this is, this is just me but I, I think the way to do this is to get money out of it,
uh, to, to get presidents or candidates give them X number of dollars each. Uh, let them do what they will and keep corporations out of it. I mean, really wouldn't that be better? I, I think it would be
but that's the way it's going.
Ok, I've been on about 20 minutes
and even though I love hearing myself talk, I think I'm about done.
Unless anybody's got a burning question or, or they're pissed off about something they want to tell me.
Uh, we'll go ahead and, and call it off. Let me make sure nothing else is here.
Ok. Nothing else is here. Now, this thing's gonna be available for, to be watched. Uh, so you can show it to your friends later. It's gonna be online. Uh, and if you do have any questions, you can always reach me on Facebook. I'm checking, we have a, a retirement, um, um, group Facebook group. Uh We, and that's got about 3000 members. I'm on there a lot. I'm talking a lot on there. We do these things every other Friday I think. Uh we also have tons of video on youtube.
You gotta subscribe to money talks news. I, I don't know what else to tell you.
Anyway, guys accept this. Be sure and get out there and vote if you haven't already. It's really, really important. It's power to the people. So exercise your power and vote and I will see you right here the next time we do this later, guys.